Month: May 2022

Saturday Previews Feature Pattern Races at Haydock and Baden-Baden One Week Before Blue Riband

Saturday's action can safely be said to be low-key as far as this time of the season is concerned, but then the emphasis is on the upcoming jamboree at Epsom and the readying of the Platinum Jubilee celebrations so it is up to the contrasting parts of the racing world known as Haydock and Baden-Baden to supply the afternoon's European pattern races. At the former venue, the G3 Betfred Pinnacle S. witnesses another Sunderland Holding-William Haggas special in Sea La Rosa (Ire) (Sea the Stars {Ire}) who will be favourite for this traditional G2 Lancashire Oaks warm-up having blitzed her rivals in Lingfield's Listed River Eden Fillies' S. when last seen in October. Fortunately for his contemporaries, Haggas doesn't have a runner in the proceeding G3 Betfred John of Gaunt S. and the door is ajar for Marc Chan's Kinross (GB) (Kingman {GB}) to register back-to-back renewals of the seven-furlong test.

 

Over To Iffezheim

While most are Derby dreaming, at Baden-Baden there are eyes cast to one of a different kind as Deutsches Derby protagonists line up for the G3 Jahre Deutscher Galopprennsport Derby-Trial. An open affair, it should help begin to sort the wheat from the chaff among the country's Classic generation and perhaps Darius Racing's Apr. 30 Listed Premio Emanuele Filiberto winner Pirouz (Ger) (Counterattack {Aus}) is the answer to this puzzle. Earlier on the card, the Listed Baden Racing Diana-Trial boasts the easy May 1 Hanover maiden winner Agneta (GB) (Almanzor {Fr}), a daughter of the G1 Preis der Diana third Amona (Ire) (Aussie Rules) from Gestut Brummerhof's dynasty of Abbashiva (Ger) (Tiger Hill {Ire}), Abbadjinn (Ger) (Big Shuffle), Addicted (Ger) (Diktat {GB}) and Artistica (Ger) (Areion {Ger}).

Click here for the group fields.

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Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Some Surprising Findings About Success Rates For Favorites

With the Hong Kong racing season about 75% over with, it's time to take a deep dive into how the three courses have played.

Generally speaking, favorites in Hong Kong win about 31% of the time despite field size right around a robust 12 starters per race.

Over the years, favorites did better on the wide, expansive turf course at Sha Tin compared to the tighter course at Happy Valley. The theory has been that favorites have a better chance of overcoming a difficult trip at Sha Tin since there is over 400 meters to run turning for home. At Happy Valley, the far turn is much tighter and the homestretch is much shorter – about 300 meters. So, even with bigger fields, favorites usually fared better on Sha Tin's turf course. It all made sense.

Overall this year, favorites have won 31% of the time and the average field size for all courses is 11.93 starters per race. But the three component parts of the big picture – Sha Tin Turf, Happy Valley Turf and Sha Tin All-weather – are dramatically different than what was expected.

At the time I did this research a few weeks ago, there were 74 races run on the all-weather track at Sha Tin. Only eight favorites won for a strike rate of 10.81% and the average winner paid a healthy $25.56. In the 2019-2020 season, favorites won 26.53% on the Sha Tin all-weather track so form over it way off this year.

There were 323 races run on the Sha Tin turf course and 98 favorites won for a strike rate of 30.34%. The average win price was $18.30 which is all within the margin of error of what could be expected.

For example, in the 2019-20 season, the percentage of winning favorites on the Sha Tin turf course was 33.17% with the average win price of $17.18.

The shock, and I do mean shock, was the results on Happy Valley's turf course. With 275 races run over it, 100 favorites won for a much higher-than-expected win percentage of 36.36%.

In the 2019-2020 season, favorites won only 23.89% and the average win price was $20.78. Off a statistically significant sample size, to go from 24% to 36% is remarkable and completely unexpected.

Despite the discrepancies, when you put all the ingredients back into the stew, it's basically the same season of racing in Hong Kong as far as form goes. But if there were a betting pool before the season on which turf course would yield the highest percentage of favorites, I would have gone all in on Sha Tin. And, I would have been wrong. By a lot!

Sha Tin Turf 2019/2020

33.17% winning favorites

Sha Tin Turf 2021/2022

30.34% winning favorites

 

Happy Valley Turf 2019/2020

23.89% winning favorites

Happy Valley Turf 2021/2022

36.36% winning favorites

 

Sha Tin All-Weather 2019-2020

26.53% winning favorites

Sha Tin All-Weather 2021-2022

10.81% winning favorites

 

The post Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Some Surprising Findings About Success Rates For Favorites appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Bolt d’Oro’s Owen’s Leap Strikes at First Asking

1st-Churchill Downs, $117,143, Msw, 5-27, 2yo, 5f, :58.78, ft, 1 3/4 lengths.
OWEN'S LEAP (c, 2, Bolt d'Oro–Defy Gravity {SW, $171,240}, by Bandini) became his freshman sire (by Medaglia d'Oro)'s third winner with a powerful performance here on unveiling. Sent off at 5-2 for the contest, the Tom Amoss trainee stalked the early pace of :22.86 and :46.35 from third, challenged outside through the far turn, and came five wide into the lane to take over in the upper stretch. Kept under strong handling, the $175,000 KEESEP alumnus came home 1 3/4 lengths best over 9-5 favorite Justafever (Justify) and $500,000 KEESEP purchase Summonyourcourage (Practical Joke). Owen's Leap hails from a productive racing and producing family being a half-brother to Ellis Park Debutante S. winner Green Destiny (Super Saver) and three other winners from four of racing age. His 3-year-old half-sister by Uncle Mo named Gravitation is unraced, and he has a yearling half-brother by Justify. Defy Gravity is a half-sister to GISW Callback (Street Sense)–the dam of recent Caesars S. runner-up Tommy Bee (Medaglia d'Oro)–and is expecting a foal by McKinzie this season. This is the female family of several sires including Cyrus Alexander, Brethren, Accelerator, Harborage, Girolamo, Imagining, Bluegrass Cat, and Super Saver. There are no fewer than 12 graded-stakes winners beneath his second and third dams. Sales history: $175,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $69,460. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.
O-Michael McLoughlin; B-Clearsky Farms (KY); T-Thomas M. Amoss.

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