April, 2022 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Star Politics, Racing TV Analyst Steve Kornacki Joins Writers’ Room

A mainstay political analyst on television for going on a decade now, Steve Kornacki has gained superstardom for his election coverage, particularly during the interminable night of and week following the 2020 presidential election. But Kornacki is also a passionate horse racing fan and handicapper, and last year became part of NBC's industry-leading national racing coverage. Tuesday, he sat down with Joe Bianca and Bill Finley on the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland as the Green Group Guest of the Week to discuss his racing roots, how he survived Election Week of 2020, who he's eyeing for this year's GI Kentucky Derby and more.

“How do I play [the horses]? Probably unwisely and too aggressively,” Kornacki said. “But I just enjoy the challenge. I liken it to trying to put together a puzzle with a thousand pieces. If you can ever get the combination just right, there's this feeling of satisfaction, a real rush that comes with that. So I'm always chasing that kind of rush. We did three of the final [Derby] prep races, the Wood, the Blue Grass and the Santa Anita Derby, on NBC a couple of weeks ago and they asked me–I think they were trying to spare me the embarrassment–if I wanted to pick them on the air. I said, 'Sure, I'll go ahead and take some shots,' and I went 0-for-3, but I knew that was a distinct possibility. And there was a part of me, when I went for some prices, that said maybe I should go with a safer pick like Mo Donegal in the Wood. But that's how I approach it. I'm always more interested in 8-1 than 2-1.”

Asked about his approach to his acclaimed election coverage and how it compares to his new gig analyzing racing, Kornacki said, “The comparison would be in the run-up to the election and the run-up to whatever race we're covering, you're looking for potential angles that can provide some insight and context. For instance, in 2020, we were very mindful that the polls systematically failed in 2016. They had undercounted [Donald] Trump support. They had overestimated Democratic support. So in the month leading up to the election, we were always trying to adjust the polling averages and say, 'If the same error applies in 2020 that applied in 2016, here's what the numbers look like now.' Suddenly you went from [Joe] Biden blowouts to these razor-thin Biden margins, and it turns out that is pretty much exactly what happened on Election Night. That's why it stretched into Election Week. That's the kind of context we're trying to provide. Now I'm looking at this Kentucky Derby field and asking myself what I can contribute on race day and in the run-up to it? Which prep races have had the best track record [with Derby runners], which horses have the best final furlong times, Beyer Speed Figures? I think a big one in the Derby is in this [qualifying] points era, being at or near the front of the pack at every point of call has been huge and a total departure from what it was before. So I look for those kinds of angles, whether it's politics or horse racing.”

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders' Association, XBTV, West Point Thoroughbreds and Legacy Bloodstock, Bianca and Finley discussed what the closure of harness track Pompano Park could portend for racing, the exciting and growing new technology being used to detect potential breakdowns before they happen and a big upcoming weekend for older fillies and mares. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

The post Star Politics, Racing TV Analyst Steve Kornacki Joins Writers’ Room appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

The Miner’s Canary Or The First Domino: Chaney Looks Back At 2019 In California Racing

Scott Chaney, executive director at the California Horse Racing Board, has a message for commissioners in other states – you are not exempt from what happened to us.

“2019 was probably the worst thing that ever could have happened to us, but at the same time it was one of the best things,” Chaney said in a presentation at last week's convention of the Association of Racing Commissioners International (ARCI).

Chaney looked back on the time period of Santa Anita's well-publicized fatality spike as a “watershed moment” for racing in the state, from which he believes the sport has grown.

One of the most important things to understand for regulators outside of California is that the 2018-19 season wasn't that much of an outlier in terms of the fatality rate, which the CHRB has been tracking for several decades. 2019 finished the year with 128 fatalities, even factoring in the perceived “spike” early in the year, while 2018 had had 146. The difference, of course, was the attention from mainstream media, which magnified the impact of every death.

Under intense pressure from the public and local and state politicians, Chaney recalls the commission took a “all hands on deck, kitchen sink-type approach” to passing new safety regulation. He said the state has seen 30 new welfare-related regulations in the last two years, which is an incredible rate.

“We didn't know what we were doing when we started … which is not a great approach to regulation,” he said. “Usually you'd want to have some scientific evidence behind new rules.

“But the governor said racing was going to end if we didn't do something.”

In that initial scramble, Chaney said he saw reduced resistance from interest groups like jockeys' and trainers' organizations that would historically push back at new restrictions on medication, whip use, or other regulations impacting their membership. In the moment, everyone just wanted to see the sport keep going.

In 2021, the state of California had 71 fatalities, only 20 of which came during racing events. Its rate is about half the national average, which as far as Chaney is aware, is the lowest in the country.

Roughly three years from the crisis, Chaney said there are a few changes he looks back on as being the most impactful in improving equine fatality in the state:

The entry review panel, which screens entries for horses who may be at elevated risk for severe injury based on the horse's medical, training, and racing history. At first, Chaney admitted, the panel scratched a lot of horses, which didn't go over well with horsemen. Then, trainers modified their programs and the panel didn't feel it needed to scratch as many horses. This probably hurts the entries, Chaney admitted, but the panel can feel confident the horses who do start are safer.
Restrictions on drugs, intra-articular injections, and shockwave, along with veterinary exams required ahead of workouts and races. While these things may have reduced risk for individual animals, Chaney said the regulatory changes to veterinarians' role also allowed a more important, fundamental shift in the veterinary business model on the backstretch.
“Veterinary medicine on the backside has always been a medication, prescription-driven endeavor,” he said. “That's how vets make money. You prescribe medication. What we've tried to do, both intentionally and as an ancillary benefit, is change that to a more diagnostic-based [endeavor]. Vets are out there to diagnose problems and prevent them, rather than fix them afterwards and prescribe medications. But veterinarians have to be paid for that, too.”

While veterinarians initially resisted the idea that they may have to charge for examinations (which is traditionally not done in the racing world), Chaney said they too saw the benefits to this business model shift.
Taking veterinary reports electronic was also a big deal for California regulators. Chaney said this may seem more like a logistical victory than a welfare victory, but it actually allows regulators to do better research on the medical behavior going on at the racetracks, since digitization enables better data analysis.
Then there were changes Chaney said had met with resistance before, like whip regulation and longer pre-race Lasix administration times, which finally went through in the aftermath of the intense public scrutiny.
“I don't know of any evidence out there that suggests overusing your crop leads to injury, but it's perception. We have a citizenry in California that cares about this,” he said.

“I am in a state where using medication for racing is not possible. I understand there's an animal welfare argument to be made [regarding Lasix]. It just doesn't work in California because the story becomes 'They're drugging horses in order for them to run.'”

In future, Chaney said regulators in California aren't necessarily prepared to rest on the laurels of improved numbers. He said they're even considering “crazy” ideas like opening a veterinary pharmacy at each racetrack to better monitor and control prescription drug use, or even training in both directions to make horses' use of their bodies more symmetrical.

Chaney echoed sentiments of California racetrack practitioner Dr. Ryan Carpenter in a presentation at last year's Tex Cauthen seminar: there may have been a learning curve for veterinarians and horsemen with some of these changes, but everyone got on the same page when the future of the sport was threatened. And, just as importantly: while California may be a socially more liberal place, both believe the public outcry that happened there over racehorse deaths could happen in other places, too.

A lot of people, Chaney said, “think 'California is the left coast, they're progressive out there. Whatever's going on out there doesn't apply to us.

“I don't view it that way,” he said. “I view it as one of two ways: either we're the miner's canary – this is what's coming to other states. Or we're the first domino. If animal welfare advocates, the fringe ones, are successful in making racing go away, the next state is easier.

“What's happening in California is relevant to everyone else.”

The post The Miner’s Canary Or The First Domino: Chaney Looks Back At 2019 In California Racing appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Another Derby Bet for McIngvale

After placing a losing win bet of more than $2 million on Essential Quality (Tapit) in last year's GI Kentucky Derby, Jim “Mattress Mack” is coming back for more. McIngvale said that he is planning to bet between $3 million and $4 million this year on the race favorite. McIngvale has often linked huge bets on sporting events such as the World Series, the NCAA tournament, the Super Bowl and the Derby to promotions at his Gallery Furniture stores in Houston. If the favorite wins the Derby, McIngvale will issue a refund to anyone spending $3,000 or more in his stores. He plays the odds so that if he wins the bet he makes enough from the wager to cover the cost of giving away so much free furniture. And if the wager loses, the profits from his furniture sales should cover the cost of the losing bet.

After a string of losers, McIngale won $8.8 million earlier this month betting on Kansas to win the NCAA basketball championship.

With his previous bets, customers only qualified if they bought mattresses. This year, McIngvale has added other types of furniture to the promotion, the reason why he will exceed the amount he bet last year.

“I am going to have some fun and gamble a bit,” he said. “This should be a fun Kentucky Derby.”

McIngvale said the entire bet will be made on-track at Churchill Downs. That guarantees that the highest percentage possible will go back to purses.

“I'll be at Churchill all day,” he said. “It's very important to bet on track so the most money goes back to the Kentucky horsemen. I am a Kentucky horseman, so I don't making racing bets offshore or in Nevada. I always bet on track so the track can make the most money and can give back the most money to horsemen in purses.”

In the weeks leading up to the 2021 Derby, McIngvale knew who he was going to bet on. Essential Quality was an obvious favorite and went off at odds of 2.90-1. He finished fourth. It's a different Derby this year with no clear-cut favorite. The longest price for a favorite in Derby history was 6.30-1, the price on Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike) in the 2010 Derby. This year's favorite could drift into the 5-1, 6-1 area.

“To have that high of a price on the favorite is great for someone like me,” McIngvale said. “I'm used to hedging off these sports bets where my odds might be $1.50 against $1. If the favorite is 4-1 or 5-1 that's a tremendous buffer when it comes to having to pay back the customers if the horse wins. Last year, I bet almost $25% of the total win amount on the favorite. This is a wide open year. It's a good opportunity for the promotion, to get the favorite at a good price and get a good return if the favorite wins. It's good odds for the customers.”

Understanding that his win bet alone could greatly deflate the price on the favorite, McIngvale said he will spread some of the money out in the exacta pool, using all other 19 starters on top of the favorite.

But who will be the lowest priced horse in the Derby field? With no clear answer to that question, it's possible that the role of who will be the favorite may not be decided until a few minutes to post. What then?

“Who will be the favorite? That's the $64,000 question,” McIngvale said. “I'll take a look at the Oaks-Derby daily double and use that as a guide. A lot of the sharper money is in that pool. Throughout the day, I'll be feeding money in on the horse I believe will be the favorite. I just have to make sure I am on the favorite when the bell goes off and they leave the starting gate.”

McIngvale will have mixed feelings if the favorite wins the Derby because that will mean that Smile Happy (Runhappy) did not win. McIngvale has promoted Runhappy non-stop since he entered stud and knows that if he adds a Derby winner to his credentials it would boost his value as a sire. When asked who he will be rooting for if Smile Happy, who figures to be seventh or eighth choice in the betting, and the Derby favorite hook up in the stretch, McIngvale said “a dead-heat.”

“I could just put all the money on Smile Happy and that might make him the favorite,” McIngvale said. “I have a fiduciary responsibility to the customers to bet on the favorite. It wouldn't be the best deal for them if I bet on Smile Happy.”

As a side bet, McIngvale said he will be betting between $50,000 and $200,000 to win on Smile Happy.

The post Another Derby Bet for McIngvale appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Hurry Up And Wait After Final Prep

We're less than three months away from the first Saturday in May, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the Kentucky Derby starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

Check the Paulick Report every week for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

This season's Kentucky Derby preps have come and gone. Barring defections, the top 20 spots on the Derby leaderboard are locked up, and we know which horses are likely to enter the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

Up until this point, this list had been a hybrid of one handicapper's opinion and runners likely to make the field. Now, though, we can exclusively focus on the top 20 horses on the leaderboard.

Let's take a look!

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Epicenter

Pedigree: Not This Time – Silent Candy (by Candy Ride)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Kentucky Derby points: 164

Epicenter didn't just win the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. He did it in exactly the right way. He showed he could rate just off the speed, even taking some dirt in his face going up the backstretch. When called upon, he swooped past the front-runners and had plenty left late. It was as perfect a final prep as the connections could've hoped for, and he may very well be your Kentucky Derby favorite.

Epicenter was bred in Kentucky by Westwind Farms, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes winner Silent Candy. He sold for $260,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Westwind Farms bought Silent Candy pregnant to Scat Daddy for $130,000 in 2014.

#2: Taiba

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Needmore Flattery (by Flatter)

Owner: Zedan Racing Stables

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Kentucky Derby points: 100

An unraced maiden in early-March, Taiba emerged as a possible Kentucky Derby favorite with a win in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. He topped stablemate Messier and San Felipe winner Forbidden Kingdom and did so in professional fashion, looking like anything but a lightly-raced 3-year-old going two turns for the first time. Can a horse with just two starts under his belt win the Kentucky Derby for the first time since 1883? We'll find out in just a few short weeks.

Taiba was bred in Kentucky by Bruce Ryan, out of the 14-time stakes-winning Flatter mare Needmore Flattery. The dam was a homebred for Ryan and Tim Hamm's Blazing Meadows Farm. Taiba sold as a yearling for $140,000 at the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Yearling Sale, and he later brought $1.7 million at the following year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#3: Zandon

Pedigree: Upstart – Memories Prevail (by Creative Cause)

Owner: Jeff Drown

Trainer: Chad Brown

Kentucky Derby points: 114

Zandon needed to run well in the G1 Blue Grass to make the field. In rallying from way back beneath a masterful ride from Flavien Prat, he did just that and showed a lot of the traits one looks for in a potential Derby horse. Brown has yet to win the Derby, and this may be one of the better chances he's had to date.

Zandon was bred in Kentucky by Brereton C. Jones of Airdrie Stud, and the colt is the first foal to race out of the unraced dam. Zandon sold as a yearling for $170,000 from the Airdrie Stud consignment.

#4: Messier

Pedigree: Empire Maker – Checkered Past (by Smart Strike)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan, Golconda Stable, and Siena Farm

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Kentucky Derby points: 40

I can't ding Messier too much for losing to Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby. He wasn't far off a pretty fast pace, and he was 10 lengths clear of that day's third-place finisher. It's entirely possible he needed the race off of a brief freshening, and as nice as it would've been to win it, it was another Derby that's long been the main goal for these connections. In running second, Messier punched his ticket to that dance, and he'll have every chance to turn the tables on his stablemate in that event.

#5: White Abarrio

Pedigree: Race Day – Catching Diamonds (by Into Mischief)

Owner: C2 Racing Stable and La Milagrosa Stable

Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Kentucky Derby points: 112

White Abarrio jumped up a few spots after his win in the G1 Florida Derby, where he topped Charge It, Simplification, and Classic Causeway, among others. He's never lost at Gulfstream Park, and if his Florida form travels to Kentucky with him, he'll have every chance to give his young trainer his first Kentucky Derby victory.

White Abarrio was bred in Kentucky by Spendthrift Farm, and he is the first foal out of the Into Mischief mare Catching Diamonds. He sold as a newly-turned yearling for $7,500 at the 2020 OBS Winter Mixed Sale. Spendthrift purchased Catching Diamonds as a yearling for $425,000.

#6: Smile Happy

Pedigree: Runhappy – Pleasant Smile (by Pleasant Tap)

Owner: Lucky Seven Stable

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Kentucky Derby points: 70

Similar to Messier, who maintains a high spot despite losing to Taiba, I can't knock Smile Happy too much for his runner-up finish in the Blue Grass. He was wide around both turns and close to the pace on a day where Keeneland's main track wasn't kind to early speed. He still ran well, but was just second-best on the day. We know Smile Happy likes Churchill Downs, and the Derby will be the third start of his form cycle. He has every chance to be sitting on his best race when it matters most.

Smile Happy was bred in Kentucky by Moreau Bloodstock International Inc. and White Bloodstock LLC, out of the winning Pleasant Tap mare Pleasant Smile, whose four starters are all winners, also including the stakes-placed Wilko Rum, by Wilko. Smile Happy sold as a weanling for $175,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale, and later brought $185,000 at the Keeneland September Sale.

#7: Charge It

Pedigree: Tapit – I'll Take Charge (by Indian Charlie)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Charge It made just the third start of his young career in the Florida Derby, which doubled as his first try around two turns. He ran in spurts, but did enough to finish second and sew up a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. Several accomplished horses finished behind him that day, and given his inexperience, he's certainly got the potential to move forward. Add in the presence of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, and you have a runner that merits plenty of attention.

Charge It is a Kentucky homebred for Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm, out of the Indian Charlie mare I'll Take Charge. Pope bought the dam as a yearling for $2.2 million at the 2013 Keeneland September sale.

#8: Mo Donegal

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown (by Pulpit)

Owner: Donegal Racing

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Kentucky Derby points: 112

Mo Donegal, the winner of last year's G2 Remsen, added the G2 Wood Memorial beneath a perfectly-timed move from jockey Joel Rosario, who ran down Early Voting in the shadow of the wire. Rosario likely won't be aboard in Kentucky, but likely rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. is as good a replacement as one can hope to find at this stage.

Mo Donegal was bred in Kentucky by Ashview Farm and Colts Neck Stables. He brought $250,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September sale.

#9: Cyberknife

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Awesome Flower (by Flower Alley)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Cyberknife punched his ticket to Kentucky with a win in the G1 Arkansas Derby. Unlike heavy favorite Secret Oath and runner-up Barber Road, Cyberknife had a clean trip and made the most of it. His record looks far better if you toss the dud he ran in the G3 Lecomte, and about a month after having no 3-year-olds on the Derby leaderboard, Cox now has three in the field.

Cyberknife was bred in Kentucky by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, out of the Grade 2-placed stakes winner Awesome Flower, who the Ramseys claimed for $30,000 at Gulfstream Park in 2012. The colt sold for $400,000 at the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearling Sale.

#10: Early Voting

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Amour d'Ete (by Tiznow)

Owner: Klaravich Stables

Trainer: Chad Brown

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Early Voting did everything but win in the Wood Memorial. While he made the lead, he had to work to get there, and he still had nearly enough to repel the challenge of Mo Donegal. These connections once skipped the Derby with a lightly-raced horse that went on to win the Preakness (Cloud Computing, in 2017), but as Brown noted in an interview with DRF's David Grening, the owner/trainer tag team had another Derby horse that year (Practical Joke).

Early Voting was bred in Kentucky by Three Chimneys Farm, and he sold as a yearling for $200,000. Three Chimneys bought Amour d'Ete, a half-sister to top sire Speightstown, as a yearling for $1.75 million.

[Story Continues Below]

#11: Simplification

Pedigree: Not This Time – Simply Confection (by Candy Ride)

Owner: Tami Bobo

Trainer: Antonio Sano

Kentucky Derby points: 74

Simplification finished third behind White Abarrio and Charge It in the Florida Derby, and in an age where many top 3-year-olds will have two preps under their belts, it's impressive to see four here. He won the G2 Fountain of Youth and Mucho Macho Man and was second in the G3 Holy Bull.

#12: Zozos

Pedigree: Munnings – Papa's Forest (by Forestry)

Owner: Barry and Joni Butzow

Trainer: Brad Cox

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Zozos ran well when second in the Louisiana Derby. He set a legitimate pace under pressure, and while he was no match for Epicenter, he held second and secured enough points to get him to Kentucky. The pedigree doesn't exactly scream “a mile and a quarter,” but the 1 3/16-mile distance of the Louisiana Derby didn't seem like too much of a problem. With only three starts under his belt, he may have more room to improve.

Zozos is a Kentucky homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow, out of the winning Forestry mare Papa's Forest. The Butzows purchased Papa's Forest as a yearling for $57,000 at the 2011 Keeneland September sale, and she made $233,593 on the racetrack.

#13: Barber Road

Pedigree: Race Day – Encounter (by Southern Image)

Owner: WSS Racing, LLC

Trainer: John Ortiz

Kentucky Derby points: 58

There's something to be said for a horse that just doesn't run a bad race. With the exception of his debut, he's never been worse than third, and that includes five starts in stakes company. He salvaged second behind Cyberknife in the Arkansas Derby, and in doing so, he earned enough Derby points to make the field.

Barber Road was bred in Kentucky by Susan Forrester and Judy Curry, out of the unplaced Southern Image mare Encounter. The mare was a $1,000 purchase out of the 2015 Keeneland November Sale by Scott Conlee, who bred Encounter's future foals in partnership with Forrester and Curry until the latter two acquired full ownership. Barber Road sold as a weanling for $15,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale.

#14: Tiz the Bomb

Pedigree: Hit it a Bomb – Tiz the Key (by Tiznow)

Owner: Magdalena Racing

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Kentucky Derby points: 110

All systems appear “go” for Tiz the Bomb to try dirt again on the biggest stage possible. After an early-season misfire, he won back-to-back Derby preps over Turfway Park's synthetic surface, including the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks (now a 100-point prep). He's got tons of talent, and the distance shouldn't be an issue given his pedigree…but can he run on dirt?

Tiz the Bomb was bred in Kentucky by Spendthrift Farm, out of the winning Tiznow mare Tiz the Key. McPeek, acting as agent, purchased Tiz the Bomb for $330,000 at the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Select Yearling Sale. Spendthrift bought Tiz the Key as a yearling for the same price at the 2012 Keeneland September Sale.

#15: Tawny Port

Pedigree: Pioneerof the Nile – Livi Makenzie (by Macho Uno)

Owner: Peachtree Stable

Trainer: Brad Cox

Kentucky Derby points: 60

As it turned out, Tawny Port didn't need to run in the G3 Lexington to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby. However, his connections kept him in the race, and their optimism was rewarded with a professional score. He showed he could run well on dirt, but he'll likely need to take a significant step forward in order to contend against the division's heavy hitters next month.

Tawny Port was bred in Kentucky by WinStar Farm, out of the Grade 2-placed stakes winner Livi Makenzie. The colt sold to Fort for $430,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. WinStar Farm bought Livi Makenzie as a broodmare prospect for $190,000 at the 2014 Keeneland November Sale, and the operation sold her pregnant to Always Dreaming for $30,000 at the same sale in 2020.

#16: Morello

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Stop the Wedding (by Congrats)

Owner: Blue Lion Thoroughbreds, Craig Taylor, and Diamond T Racing

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Morello lost all chance at the start of the Wood Memorial and ran last in that event. It was his first start around two turns, and while it's easy to say the race is a throw-out given his poor break, he also didn't do anything to answer the question, “can he go long?” His connections haven't ruled out a spot in the Derby, though, and he'd be safely in the field should they chart a course for that event.

Morello was bred in Kentucky by Robert B. Tillyer and Dr. Chet Blackey, out of the Congrats mare Stop the Wedding. The colt sold as a weanling for $140,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale, then he brought $200,000 at the following year's Fasig-Tipton Select Yearling Sale. In 2021, Morello sold for $250,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Stop the Wedding was an $11,000 purchase, pregnant to Cairo Prince, by Tillyer at the 2020 Keeneland January Sale.

#17: Un Ojo

Pedigree: Laoban – Risk a Chance (by A.P. Indy)

Owner: Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ricky Courville

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Un Ojo had a very rough trip in the Arkansas Derby, but he seems to have recovered from that journey. A recent workout inspired his connections to keep the one-eyed New York-bred on the Derby trail, and his upset win in the G2 Rebel means he'll have more than enough points to go postward.

#18: Crown Pride

Pedigree: Reach the Crown – Emmy's Pride (by King Kamehameha)

Owner: Teruya Yoshida

Trainer: Koichi Shintani

Kentucky Derby points: 100

With his win in the Group 2 UAE Derby, Crown Pride ensured himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. Given the focus on stamina and longevity within the Japanese breeding program, it seems likely they'll win a Derby at some point. I'm just not sure this is the year that happens.

#19: Happy Jack

Pedigree: Oxbow – Tapitstry (by Tapit)

Owner: Calumet Farm

Trainer: Doug O'Neill

Kentucky Derby points: 30

A horse had to run third in the Santa Anita Derby, and a horse had to run third in the G2 San Felipe. This year, Happy Jack filled both spots, and he earned 30 Kentucky Derby points in doing so (enough to back into the field following a recent round of defections). O'Neill has won the Derby twice, but if he does it this year, it will be with one of the longest shots on the board.

Happy Jack is a Kentucky homebred for Calumet Farm, out of the placed Tapit mare Tapitstry. The breeder purchased Tapitstry for $100,000, pregnant to Tizway, at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#20: Summer Is Tomorrow

Pedigree: Summer Front – Always Tomorrow (by Badge of Silver)

Owner: Michael and Negar Burke

Trainer: Bhupat Seemar

Kentucky Derby points: 40

The connections of the UAE Derby runner-up have said they're planning to ship to Kentucky, since their colt has enough points to make the field. He's won two of seven starts in Dubai ahead of his trip to the U.S., and based on his current resume, it's tough to see him as anything other than the longest of longshots.

Summer Is Tomorrow was bred in Kentucky by Brereton Jones of Airdrie Stud, out of the winning Badge of Silver mare Always Tomorrow, who Jones bought for $20,000 at the 2015 Keeneland January Sale. The colt initially sold as a weanling for $25,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale, and he later brought $169,743 at the 2021 Arqana Deauville Breeze Up Sale.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Hurry Up And Wait After Final Prep appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post