The Week in Review: Derby Dynamics Reflect Changing Times

It's long been an appealing part of American lore how the GI Kentucky Derby is unique compared to every other race run during the year. The emphasis has traditionally been on young horses getting exactly one chance to run a distance they've never before attempted, against the largest field they'll likely ever encounter; in front of the biggest on-track crowd they'll ever experience.

But the 21st Century has gradually added dynamics to the Derby's legacy that have shaped the race in ways that could not have been fathomed even one generation ago.

A qualifying points system now determines starting berths, essentially rewriting the game plan for training Derby aspirants. Starting spots are reserved for foreign horses in an effort to globally grow Derby betting. Two of the past three Derbies have involved interference or drug disqualifications of the first horses across the finish wire, ensnarling “the most exciting two minutes in sports” in months of litigation. This year the gaming corporation that controls the Derby has barred the winningest trainer in the history of the race, although swift action related to a series of related appeals in the courts has kept that issue from dominating the Derby's news cycle.

We also have an unprecedented lull in the action, with this year being the first to feature four weeks between the final important weekend of nine-furlong preps and the Derby itself.

That spacing got changed when Oaklawn Park readjusted its 2022 prep schedule by moving back the date of its premier stakes, the GI Arkansas Derby, so it sat five weeks out from the first Saturday in May instead of the more familiar three.

You can't use one single year as a measuring stick. But the entire sophomore series at Oaklawn this season shook out as the weakest prep path to Louisville, with only three longshot contenders likely for the Kentucky Derby. The bigger question moving forward will be whether or not some enterprising track will juggle its own prep race spacing for '23 to claim the mid-April spot vacated by Oaklawn.

It's true that the “less is more” approach to training dovetails better with the four-week placement of the final 100-points-to-the-winner stakes. Yet the Saturday exactly three weeks out from the Derby still has untapped potential as prime real estate on the calendar in the context of being the last chance to earn serious qualifying points.

Right now Aqueduct, Keeneland and Santa Anita all stack up against each other on the same four-weeks-out date. They all offer the same-distance race for the same amount of Derby points, with the only difference being that the Wood Memorial S. is a Grade II instead of the Grade I offered by the Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass S.

At some level, wouldn't it behoove one of those tracks to break with convention and lay claim to being the theoretical “only game in town” on a standalone Saturday without having to compete against the other two for entrants and the attention of the betting public?

This year the Wood, Blue Grass and Santa Anita Derby all went off within roughly the same hour on Apr. 9. The very next Saturday was fairly light on the national landscape, yet the GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. at Keeneland attracted 11 sophomores who were chasing coveted Derby qualifying points.

No matter that the Lexington was a relatively short race at 1 1/16 miles featuring only 20 points to the victor. Those were still crucial points for horses on the cusp of being in or out, and the Lexington was compelling this year because of it being a last-gasp chance to make it to Louisville.

The qualifying points system isn't perfect. But one of its most intriguing, baked-in advantages is that the closer you get to the date of the Derby itself, the more riveting the quest for points becomes. In that respect, it seems almost wasteful not to be leveraging that drama right up until the three-week mark before the race.

Another small step for Oregon

On Thursday, TDN reported on the glimmer of hope that exists to revitalize racing at Grants Pass Downs in southern Oregon.

Later that same evening, the plans took another small but important step forward when the Southern Oregon Horse Racing Association (SOHRA) was resurrected after two years of dormancy.

The idea is for the Oregon Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association (OHBPA) to fund the eventual return of an extended meet at Grants Pass, while SOHRA steps in as an experienced  recent license-holder to help keep the state's most suitable track for training open this spring and summer while possibly hosting the formerly traditional fairs meet at Grants Pass in June/July.

Four other mixed-meet fairs tracks run in Oregon. But they were all put in jeopardy earlier this month when the linchpin of the circuit–35 days of commercial-meet racing at Grants Pass–got severed in the wake of the Oregon Racing Commission (ORC)'s vote to deny a gaming license to the track.

That ORC decision was based on a Department of Justice opinion that called the project unconstitutional because of the way the state's gambling laws are set up and it came after investor Travis Boersma spent $35 million over the last two years overhauling Grants Pass Downs and building a facility to house historical horse racing machines there.

Without Grants Pass up and functional, the horses have nowhere to train for the fairs.

According to the Grants Pass Daily Courier, about 50 trainers and owners crowded into a backstretch meeting Apr. 21, and the first order of SOHRA business was bringing back Rod Lowe, who previously oversaw SOHRA when the organization hosted the Josephine County Fair dates at Grants Pass Downs between 2013-19.

Asked why he was coming back to head the longshot revival of Oregon racing, Lowe drew applause when he said, “Because I love the sport, I love the industry. And I love Grants Pass Downs.”

The Daily Courier said the next important deadline will be Tuesday, which is when the OHBPA will find out if it's able to buy the heavy equipment (starting gate, tractors, horse ambulance, etc…) that Boersma wants liquidated.

Win machine on the move

Greeley and Ben (Greeley's Conquest), who tied for second-winningest horse in North America in 2021 with 11 trips to the winner's circle, won his fourth race of '22 on Sunday at Oaklawn Park. The strapping 8-year-old has now won 15 of his last 20 starts and 20 of 32 lifetime.

That's an impressive run for a gelding who was claimed for $10,000 a little over a year ago.

Since being owned and trained by Karl Broberg (End Zone Athletics), Greeley and Ben has blossomed into a three-time stakes winner who has bankrolled roughly 45 times his claim price in purses.

Dropping from Grade III sprint company into a $62,500 optional-claimer/NW3L allowance Sunday, Greeley and Ben was bet down to 2-5 favoritism. He pressed the pace and edged clear to win by 1 1/4 lengths, but was claimed by trainer Melton Wilson on behalf of owner Thaddeus Wier, Jr.

Somewhat surprisingly, Greeley and Ben isn't the continent's victory leader so far in '22: Exit Right (Effinex) is 5-for-5 at Parx and Aqueduct. Beverly Park (Munnings) is 5-for-12 (yes, a dozen starts through mid-April) with wins at Charles Town, Laurel and Mahoning Valley.

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Gormley Colt Runs Them Off Their Feet at Keeneland

8th-Keeneland, $100,000, Msw, 4-24, 3yo, 7f, 1:27.05, ft, 11 1/4 lengths.

B DAWK (c, 3, Gormley–Mott N Hester, by Super Saver) closed to get up for third debuting at five furlongs on the Del Mar turf Nov. 14 and improved a spot switching to dirt at Santa Anita on New Year's Eve. Bombing at 1-2 when sixth switching to Tapeta at Golden Gate, he ran a distant third behind impressive High Connection (Connect) back on the Arcadia main track Mar. 26 and was dispatched at 44-5 shipping in for this spot. Hustled for position early, the $425,000 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic buy pressed the pace from a close-up second through a quarter in :22.88. Cruising to the lead three deep entering the turn, the chestnut blew the race open in early stretch, belatedly switched leads just inside the eighth pole and rolled home a sharp 11 1/4-length winner. Favored firster Exact Estimate (Into Mischief) completed the exacta. The victor's dam produced a filly by Classic Empire last season before visiting Tiz the Law. Sales History: $77,000 Ylg '20 KEEJAN; $140,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP; $425,000 2yo '21 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: 5-1-1-2, $88,415. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Joseph E. Besecker; B-Small Batch Thoroughbreds & Robert Fetkin (KY); T-Doug F. O'Neill.

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Pioneer Of Medina Likely For KY Derby

Upon Remsen (G3) winner Morello's exit from consideration as a Kentucky Derby (G1) contender due to a foot injury, grade 2-placed Pioneer of Medina moves into the 20th spot on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard and could be a contender for the classic May 7, bloodhorse.com reports.

Trainer Todd Pletcher told the publication Sunday morning that a final decision would be made following the colt's scheduled breeze Monday at Churchill Downs.

“(We) need to see the breeze tomorrow, but … he had a good gallop this morning,” Pletcher said. “(He) seems to be in good shape.”

The son of Pioneerof the Nile, owned by Sumaya U.S. Stable, has 25 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, garnered during the Fair Grounds meet, which includes a third in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) April 2 following his fourth in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) in February.

Pioneer of Medina has a 2-1-2 record from six career starts and $181,350 in earnings.

Morello was 15th on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 50 points.

Read more at bloodhorse.com.

The post Pioneer Of Medina Likely For KY Derby appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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A 2022 Derby-Oaks Sire Double Could Make History

Of the 1,630 stallions who covered mares in North America in 2018, a grand total of up to 34 could have starters in the respective gates of the upcoming GI Kentucky Derby and GI Kentucky Oaks (based on a maximum of 20 Derby starters and 14 Oaks starters). That's about a 2% chance.

How remarkable is it, then, that this year we have not one, not two, but seven stallions with the potential to pull off a Derby-Oaks sire double, something that hasn't been done since Native Dancer sired the winners of both races 56 years ago? In the 147 years of Derby-Oaks history, the feat has been accomplished exactly four times.

Of course, it will be another week before the fields are drawn, but Churchill Downs currently has 28 colts eligible by points on its Derby leaderboard and 23 fillies on its Oaks leaderboard. Seven sires have progeny on both and an additional three have multiple contenders for one or the other of the races. That seems extraordinary. Almost as extraordinary is that not one of those 10 stallions with multiple contenders is Spendthrift's super sire Into Mischief, who officially became the first stallion in history to sire back-to-back Derby winners when Mandaloun was belatedly promoted as the 2021 winner.

It will come as no surprise that the Three Chimneys wunderkind Gun Runner ranks at the top of the list. The 2017 Horse of the Year was a breakout superstar with his first 2-year-olds last year and has simply continued his dominance, so much so that his one crop of 3-year-olds has him ranked among the top 15 of North America's leading sires in 2022, with all the horses above him having older runners to add to their tally. He leads the current second-crop sires in every category that matters: Grade I winners, graded winners, black-type winners, earnings, earnings per starter, and Derby and Oaks horses.

Gun Runner's first 3-year-olds include a potential three Derby colts and two Oaks fillies | Sarah Andrew

Gun Runner has three colts on Churchill's top 20 by points: Cyberknife, 'TDN Rising Star' Taiba, and Early Voting. He also has two fillies on the Oaks leaderboard by points: champion and 'TDN Rising Star' Echo Zulu, who is securely in the Oaks field, and Shotgun Hottie, who is currently sitting #15 on the list. It is truly an embarrassment of riches.

But Gun Runner isn't the only one whose cup runneth over. Airdrie's young third-crop sire Upstart just may have the favorite for both the Derby and the Oaks, a feat surely almost as rare as winning both. Upstart may not have the sheer numbers in each race Gun Runner has, but he has Zandon and Kathleen O., and it's a good bet the Airdrie stallion team wouldn't trade places with anyone.

Continuing the spate of success for young sires, two others below Gun Runner on the second-crop list also have potential starters in both the Derby and Oaks. Both Coolmore's Classic Empire and Lane's End's Connect have runners on the leaderboard of both. Classic Empire's Morello has enough points to make the Derby field, while his 'TDN Rising Star' Classy Edition and Interstatedaydream are on the Oaks bubble. Inversely, Connect has Hidden Connection guaranteed a spot in the Oaks field, while his Rattle N Roll is on the Derby bubble by points.

With a number of the industry's top sires in their late teens or early 20s, isn't it comforting to feel the future of the breed is in good hands with these prolific young stallions? Two other blossoming sires, Taylor Made's third-crop stallion Not This Time and Darley's third-crop sire Nyquist, also deserve special mention as each has three contenders, although in a single race. Not This Time has Epicenter, Simplification, and In Due Time for the Derby, while Nyquist potentially has Turnerloose, Awake at Midnyte, and Sequist for the Oaks. Also worthy of mention for multiple contenders in a single Classic is Race Day, who left Derby entrants White Abarrio and Barber Road in this country before transferring to Korea.

Returning to our potential Derby-Oaks doubles, although it seems particularly notable with these young second- and third-crop sires who have been on fire lately, we also have three more established stallions who also have a shot to pull off the rare accomplishment. Coolmore's Munnings, who is proving just about as versatile as his sire, Speightstown, ended 2021 with top 2-year-olds 'TDN Rising Star' Jack Christopher and Eda. Neither will make the Classic fields on the first Friday and Saturday in May. However, Munnings re-rallied with 'TDN Rising Star' Zozos guaranteed a spot in the Derby field and 'TDN Rising Star' Shahama among the top 14 for the Oaks.

The late Pioneerof the Nile could add to his tally | Louise Reinagel

WinStar's late Pioneerof the Nile and Coolmore's Uncle Mo, already Derby-winning sires in 2015 with American Pharoah and 2016 with Nyquist, respectively, could also pull off a Derby-Oaks double this year. Pioneerof the Nile has Tawny Port and Pioneer of Medina for the Derby, while Favor is a longshot to make the Oaks field. Unclo Mo has Mo Donegal and 'TDN Rising Star' Cocktail Moments firmly on their respective race leaderboards.

For historical perspective, Native Dancer was the most recent stallion to sire the winners of both the Derby and the Oaks, something he accomplished in 1966 with Kauai King and Native Street. It can be a challenge to find a pedigree in America today without Native Dancer buried somewhere as without him, there would have been no Northern Dancer or Mr. Prospector, making him arguably one of the–if not the–most important American stallions of the past century. The “Gray Ghost of Sagamore,” whose sole career loss ironically came by a head in the 1953 Kentucky Derby, has figured in the majority of Derby- and Oaks-winning pedigrees for the past 50 years.

Calumet's incomparable Bull Lea also scored the Derby-Oaks double in 1952 with Hill Gail and Real Delight. Bull Lea got three Derby winners in a decade with Citation (1948) and Iron Liege (1957) joining Hill Gail on the Derby podium. He also had two Oaks winners, with Bubbley matching Real Delight with an Oaks win in 1953. While Into Mischief is the only sire to win Derbies in consecutive years, Bull Lea is one of four to do it in the Oaks, joining Sir Ivor (1976-77), Spanish Prince II (1924-25), and King Alfonso (1882-83).

Farther back in the sands of time, McGee had the legendary Hall of Fame gelding Exterminator win the Derby in 1918 and his female compatriot Viva America take the Oaks the same year. His was an amazing story: an average sprinter on the track and the only foal by his own unraced sire who was gelded after he was conceived, McGee also sired another Derby winner in Donerail (1913).

Earlier still was King Alfonso in 1885, who notched Derby-Oaks sire score with Joe Cotton and Lizzie Dwyer. Obviously, stallions had far smaller crops back then than they do today, which makes King Alfonso's accomplishments even more impressive. From a reported 17 stakes winners, the Phaeton (GB) stallion had Derby winner Joe Cotton, Derby winner Fonso (1880), and three Oaks winners in four years: in addition to Lizzie Dwyer in 1885, he also had Katie Creel (1882) and Vera (1883).

Native Dancer is the last horse to sire a Derby and Oaks winner in the same year | Coglianese

Many great stallions throughout our sport have never had a Derby nor an Oaks winner. Several others–the aforementioned Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector, for example, as well as Tapit, Storm Cat, Raise a Native, Tom Fool, Nasrullah, and dozens of others–have had a Derby or an Oaks winner, but not both. Several, like Medaglia d'Oro, A.P. Indy, Alydar, Exclusive Native, Sir Gallahad III (Fr), and even the legendary Man o' War and Lexington, have had two winners (or more) of one of the races, but none of the other.

A number of stallions have come tantalizingly close to getting the rare double, with winners of both races in different years. Seattle Slew comes to mind with Swale's Derby in 1984 and Oaks wins with both Seaside Attraction (1990) and Flute (2001). Halo came even closer, with Sunday Silence (1989) and Goodbye Halo (1998) in adjacent years, plus Sunny's Halo (1983) thrown in for good measure. Blenheim II was another good example, with Derby winners Whirlaway (1941) and Jet Pilot (1947) bookending an Oaks win by Nellie L. (1943).

There have been a number of captivating outcomes for sire lines as well. In 1993, Danzig got his lone Oaks winner in Dispute, while his son, Polish Navy, sired Derby winner Sea Hero. A similar thing happened in 1940, when Sir Gallahad III (Fr) sired Derby winner Gallahadion and his son, Insco, got the Oaks winner in Inscolassie; and again in 1933, when Black Toney sired Brokers Tip (Derby) and his son, Black Servant, sired Barn Swallow (Oaks). In 1902, Hanover sons Halma and The Commoner sired Derby winner Alan-a-Dale and Oaks winner Wainamoinen, respectively. Sire of yesteryear Leamington had a son, Reform, sire the 1892 Derby winner in Azra, and a grandson, Falsetto, sire Oaks winner Miss Dixie that same year. Falsetto would eventually sire three Derby winners and two Oaks winners. Leamington had himself sired that first of all Derby winners, Aristides, as well as Longfellow, who got his Derby winners in 1883 with Leonatus and in 1890 with Riley, and his Oaks winners in 1880 with Longitude and in 1887 with Florimore.

Will the young guns Upstart, Gun Runner, Connect, or Classic Empire add their names to the very short list of stallions to sire a Derby-Oaks double? Or will Munnings, Pioneerof the Nile, or Uncle Mo add to their sire exploits? Or perhaps the late Arrogate's Secret Oath will win the Oaks and Japan will continue its recent international dominance with Reach the Crown (Jpn)'s Crown Pride (Jpn) taking the Derby, making this entire discussion a moot point.

That's part of the allure surrounding the Derby and Oaks each year. It's the delicious wondering and speculating about the Classics and what may happen that makes the magic.

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