Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Jockeys Purton And Moreira Go Head To Head

As expected, Zac Purton and Joao Moreira are battling it out for the premiership of Hong Kong jockeys. Last year, Moreira was on fire and won it with 157 winners to Purton's 125. Purton had won the previous three seasons in a row and in the last eight complete seasons of Hong Kong racing, they each have four titles to their names.

This year, after 54 cards of racing, Purton has 90 winners to Joao's 85. But, as close as the race has been, there have been times when it wasn't so close.

Purton was injured in a spill during the Group 1 Longines Hong Kong Spring on Dec. 12. He did not win another race until Jan.13, 2022. Then, in February, Moreira was handed a six-card suspension that enabled Purton to make up ground – and then some.

Purton's 90 wins have come from 373 mounts for a stellar win percentage of 24.13%. Moreira, even with missing most of February, has had 415 mounts and his win percentage is 20.48%. Only Karis Teetan of the remaining riders has a double-digit win percentage – 11.1%.

Purton's 90 winners average $8.74 for each win while Moreira's average $6.86. Purton's 90 winners have paid $787.00 for a ROI of $2.11. Moreira's 85 winners have paid $583.40 for a ROI of $1.41.

John Size is the leading trainer through 54 cards with 56 winners. Moreira has ridden 25 of them but Purton only seven. Purton's main source of winners comes from Francis Lui, with 16 together. Moreira has 14 winners with Frankie Lor. Moreira has nine winners from the Caspar Fownes barn but Purton has not had a single winner with last year's champion trainer.

Purton and Moreira have an identical 40 winners each on the Sha Tin turf course. Purton does not have a winner on the Sha Tin all-weather track and Moreira has three. At Happy Valley, Purton dominates with 50 winners to Moreira's 42.

Purton rides much heavier than Moreira and it limits his selection of mounts. All 90 of his winners came with at least 120 pounds. Moreira has 22 winners where he carried less than 120 pounds. It's a big factor in handicap racing, but somehow Purton is able to overcome it. In fact, 117 of the 509 races run in the first 54 cards saw the winner carry less than 120 pounds. That's over 23% of the total races won by horses carrying weight that Purton cannot make.

So, with all the handicap racing, you would think that Moreira would have the built-in advantage and yet, Purton is the more-than-worthy adversary. When I print my form guide, each race usually takes two pages. The first page has the higher-rated and, thus, higher-weighted horses. Page two usually has the lower-rated and, thus, lower-weighted horses. I can't think of many races this season where Purton had a mount, let alone a winner, on page two.

Long story short – Zac is having a good year. But he is only five ahead of Joao. With Joao's ability to ride lightly-weighted horses, this race should come down to the wire.

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Newbloods Set for Saturday Launch

   Thursday saw the final fields take shape for Saturday's flat turf season prologues at Doncaster and The Curragh and with them the sensation of new winds careening the established order. While the hardened tifosi look to the established pillar of the Town Moore fixture, the Lincoln Handicap, the breeding merchants will pivot towards the arrival of untested and unproven stock in the card's “Brocklesby” and in the Co. Kildare venue's opening maiden. These two juvenile medleys contain the first runners for some of Europe's most enticing first-season sires, with the Brocklesby featuring progeny by Expert Eye (GB), Havana Grey (Ire) and Massaat (Ire) and the Curragh's curtain-raiser boasting a daughter of Sioux Nation.

Juddmonte's Expert Eye was precocious enough himself and being by Acclamation (GB) from the immediate family of the top-class 2-year-old Special Duty (GB) (Hennessy) it would be no surprise to see the Ian Williams-trained I Still Have Faith (GB) out of the fast The Thrill Is Gone (GB) (Bahamian Bounty {GB}) supply a champagne launch at Doncaster. Mickley Stud's Massaat has a pair in the same race in Evolicatt (GB)–from the David Evans yard always to be feared and respected in equal measure in these early speed tests–and the Adrian Nicholls-trained Mascapone (GB), while that also applies to Whitsbury Manor Stud's Havana Grey. His two are the geldings Knowwhatimeanharry (GB), from the Bill Turner stable successful in the Brocklesby in 2013, and Rocking Ends (GB) who represents Brett Johnson's Epsom establishment.

Coolmore's G1 Phoenix S. hero Sioux Nation, who takes up the baton from Scat Daddy's Caravaggio and No Nay Never, is already hot favourite with the English and Irish bookies to be leading first-season sire and he has the Jessie Harrington-trained filly Ocean Quest (Ire) in The Curragh's 'Alkumait Standing At Castlefield Stud With A €10,000 Bonus Irish EBF Maiden.'

“Ocean Quest has been exciting us at home and she's done everything nicely,” her trainer said.

At this stage, when everything is to be played for, these flurries will give initial shape to the landscape of 2022.

The post Newbloods Set for Saturday Launch appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Equibase Analysis: Call Me Midnight, Epicenter Get Rematch In Louisiana Derby

Saturday's Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby features the second meeting between Call Me Midnight, the winner of Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January, and Epicenter, who was second in the Lecomte before easily winning the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes last month.

Risen Star fourth-place finisher Pioneer of Medina will try to improve, as will Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes fourth-place finisher Galt, who did not finish in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes three weeks ago when he stumbled and lost his rider on the far turn. Rattle N Roll, who won the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity last fall, attempts to improve off a sixth-place Fountain of Youth effort. Silent Power recently finished fourth in the non-graded Big Drama Stakes, with his only win in eight career starts coming in his career debut last June. Recent 10-length winner Zozos, who is undefeated in two starts, steps into stakes company for the first time for the powerful barn of Brad Cox, while recent maiden winner Curly Tail makes his third start off a layoff and could also have a say in the outcome. Kupuna is running in a stakes race for the first time and enters the race following a second-place finish behind up-and-coming star Cyberknife, on the same day as the Risen Star. 

Analysis and main win contenders:

Although Epicenter possesses excellent early speed and may be the one to catch just as he was in the Risen Star Stakes five weeks ago, he could not hold off Call Me Midnight four weeks earlier in the Lecomte Stakes over the track, and that is the scenario I foresee again in the Louisiana Derby. In the Lecomte, Epicenter established an easy lead on fairly brisk fractions but Call Me Midnight rallied from eighth of nine early and 12 lengths back, to get up by a head on the wire, earning a career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure in the process.

When Epicenter returned four weeks later to win the Risen Star Stakes, he once again led from start to finish, but just equaled the 97 figure earned in the Lecomte. In the Gun Runner Stakes on New Year's Day, Epicenter also earned a 97 figure, so now has run just as fast but no faster in three straight races. That is not the optimal pattern for a 3-year-old in the spring. On the other hand, Call Me Midnight, who was flattered when Lecomte runner-up Epicenter won the Risen Star, has been rested since near the end of January but shows every sign of being as fit as when last seen, having put in a half-mile workout at Fair Grounds seven days ago which was the second best of 110 on the day. As such, Call Me Midnight gets preference over Epicenter as the top contender to win this year's Louisiana Derby.

Then there's Kupuna, who shares something in common with Call Me Midnight although they have never faced each other. Out of the Lecomte, not only did Epicenter return to win the Risen Star, but sixth-place finisher Cyberknife returned to win impressively earlier on the same day as the Risen Star. Cyberknife earned a 100 figure winning that day, which was faster than Epicenter (97) later in the program. Kupuna was second to Cyberknife in that race, earning a 95 figure which I think he can improve upon. Trainer Bred Calhoun won the 2019 Louisiana Derby with By My Standards at 22-1 odds and since this colt put in two brilliant five-furlong drills over the track since that last race another potential upset is not out of the question.

Honorable mention goes to Curly Tail. Although the colt just broke his maiden in his sixth career start, he leapfrogged to a 92 figure. That race on Feb. 26 was his second following two months off and so an even better performance is possible. Trainer Dallas Stewart is another known for saddling horses for odds-beating efforts, most notably Out for a Spin in the 2019 Ashland Stakes at 50-1 odds, so I would not count Curly Tail out when considering wagers involving this race. 

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Galt (93), Pioneer of Medina (96), Rattle N Roll (100), Silent Power (88) and Zozos (90).  

Win Contenders:
Call Me Midnight
Epicenter
Kupuna

Also consider Curly Tail for any exotic wagers like the exacta or trifecta made in this race. 

Louisiana Derby – Grade 2
Race 12 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, March 26 – Post Time 6:44 p.m. ET
1 3/16 Miles
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $1 Million

Ellis Starr is National Racing Analyst for Equibase

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Gary Stevens: Filly Trying Arkansas Derby, Secret Oath ‘May Be Better Than Winning Colors’

A ringing endorsement from Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens could propel bettors to take another look at the 3-year-old filly Secret Oath as she takes on the boys in the Grade 1, $1.25 million Arkansas Derby on April 2. Stevens spoke to the Thoroughbred Daily News about the daughter of Arrogate, comparing her to his Kentucky Derby-winning mount from 1988, the filly Winning Colors.

Both Secret Oath and Winning Colors have been conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

Stevens said: “People have asked me, 'Is [Secret Oath] anything like Winning Colors?' I actually think from what I'm seeing in the mornings, she may be better than Winning Colors. She's got a different style, she loves to sit off the pace and be a stalker and accelerate. She's got brilliant acceleration for a dirt horse–almost like a turf horse. When she drops [her head] and puts in her kick, she gets it over with in a hurry. Now, granted, she's been running against fillies, but I think there's a lot more in the tank than what we've seen.”

A homebred for Briland Farm (Robert and Stacy Mitchell), Secret Oath already has secured a spot in the Kentucky Oaks – the nation's biggest race for 3-year-old fillies – after collecting 60 points for victories in the Martha Washington and Honeybee. Both races were 1 1/16 miles.

Secret Oath had been a candidate for Oaklawn's final Kentucky Oaks prep, the $600,000 Fantasy Stakes (G3) at 1 1/16 miles April 2, before Lukas opted for the Arkansas Derby.

The filly recorded a five-furlong bullet (:59.40) workout on March 17 at Oaklawn Park, confirming Lukas' decision to send her against the males in the Arkansas Derby. The race offers points in the Kentucky Derby on a scale of 100-40-20-10.

Listen to Stevens' entire interview at the Thoroughbred Daily News.

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