Saturday's Grade 3, $500,000 Essex Handicap at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. brings together a field of eight very talented older males in the division. Six of the 10 have earned over a half-million dollars and two of those are millionaires.
Rated R Superstar, winner of $1.28 million to date, including a win in the 2019 Essex, is still firing bullets as a 9-year-old, having won the Fifth Season Stakes over the track in January. Plainsman, with $1.2 million banked in his career, enters the race off a win in the G3 Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn last month.
Thomas Shelby was beaten a neck in the Razorback so can easily be considered a strong contender in the Essex. Title Ready is approaching the $700,000 mark in career earnings but his last win came 14 months ago in the G3 Louisiana Stakes, with four losses since then. Warrior's Charge won the 2020 Razorback and had only won once in 12 races since until a romping 9 3/4-length win over the track at the end of January, an effort which undoubtedly will make him one of the public betting choices in this race.
Hanelei's Houdini finished third in three straight races, two of them stakes, and could come in under the radar of many bettors. Popular Kid won the Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial Stakes in November and was returning from three months away from the races when third in the Razorback so has room to improve.
Last but not least, Beau Luminarie comes back from three months on the bench but won two of his last three before a third place finish in the Tinsel Stakes in December, a race from which runner-up Thomas Shelby returned to miss by less than a length behind Rated R Superstar in the Fifth Season Stakes before his runner-up effort in the Razorback, suggesting Beau Luminarie may be a factor as well.
Main win contenders:
Hanalei's Houdini will be my top choice to win the Essex Handicap, and it is likely he will go to post at high odds. The main reason I believe Hanalei's Houdini has the talent to win is the 114 
Equibase® Speed Figure he earned when beaten a neck in the Jennings Stakes. It is the best last race figure in the field, even better than the 105 figure Plainsman earned winning the similar Razorback Handicap and better than the 110 figure Warrior's Charge earned in his near 10 length win over the track at the end of January.
As importantly, Hanalei's Houdini undoubtedly would have won the race if he had not stumbled badly at the start. In spite of nearly falling at the start, Hanalei's Houdini recovered though last of six and eight lengths back after a quarter mile had been run, then rallied determinedly to miss by a neck on the wire to multiple stakes winner Cordmaker. The Jennings has turned out to be a “Key Race” as Cordmaker returned to win the General George Stakes, a grade 3 race just like the Essex. Better still, Jennings third place finisher Galerio returned to win the John C. Campbell Stakes. Considering Hanalei's Houdini was a neck behind Cordmaker and nearly two lengths in front of Galerio, with both winning their next starts, and considering Hanalei's Houdini ran faster than any other horse in this field in his last start, he has a high probability to win this race.
Warrior's Charge had won three of nine races at Oaklawn prior to his win on Jan. 28, and with that over 10 length win he has now earned four of six career wins over the track he obviously loves. Rallying from second and five lengths back in the early stages, Warrior's Charge easily moved to lead in the stretch and was “ridden out” to victory so could have run even better than evidenced by the 110 figure, which is the second best last race figure in the field and better than Plainsman earned winning the Razorback. Warrior's Charge was then entered to run on Feb. 19 but trainer Brad Cox (who also saddles Plainsman) scratched him out of that race to run here, which is a big sign last year's Eclipse Award winning trainer knows the horse has what it takes to win the Essex.
Plainsman earned a 105 figure winning the Razorback and the same figure last fall winning the Ack Ack Stakes. Joel Rosario was aboard for both wins and rides back in the Essex Plainsman won back-to-back stakes races last June and July so obviously can hold his top form. The best of those two wins came in the Michael G. Schaefer Memorial Stakes, with a 110 figure, which if repeated, puts this hard knocking horse right there with the best of this group at the finish.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase® Speed Figures, is Beau Luminarie (108), Popular Kid (111), Rated R Superstar (111), Thomas Shelby (109) and Title Ready (102).
Win Contenders:
Hanalei's Houdini
Warrior's Charge
Plainsman
Essex Handicap – Grade 3
Race 9 at Oaklawn Park
Saturday, March 19 – Post Time 6:10 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $500,000
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