Month: October 2021

Nervous Witness A Star On the Rise in Hong Kong

by Alan Carasso

Crushed at the tills into $12 (1-5) favourtism to build on a smashing debut effort Sept. 5, Nervous Witness (Aus) (Star Witness {Aus}) absorbed plenty of mid-race heat, but responded to that challenge to annex a Class 3 event over the Sha Tin straight 1000 metres by 3 3/4 lengths, becoming the second Hong Kong 'TDN Rising Star' Friday afternoon.

Drawn high towards the stands'-side rail, Nervous Witness was away alertly, but was pressed to his outside by Brilliant Fortune (Aus) (Deep Field {Aus}), with a sectional time from the 800m to the 400m mark clocked in a wicked :19.92. Anything other than a superiour animal would be knocked around by that sort of tempo through the middle stages, but Zac Purton sat fairly quietly against him, asked his mount to win the race 250m out and kicked home to score with a minimum of fuss, getting his final quarter-mile in :22.37 (video). The final overall time of :55.24 was just 0.28 seconds slower than that recorded by his David Hayes stablemate Super Wealthy (Aus) (Epaulette {Aus}) in the G3 National Day Cup H. three races later.

Nervous Witness was the third of four winners on the day for the Hayes yard, taking him to 12 at this early stage of the season, while Super Wealthy rang up his 500th Hong Kong winner.

 

“[Zac] said he's a Group 1 horse, he said he got put under a lot of pressure from Joao Moreira, he said he just served it to him,” Hayes told the HKJC notes team. “You'd prefer him not to have that pressure but it's nice to see how he responded. He responded like a proper horse.”

Added Purton: They just don't do what he just did–it was special. He got it put to him today and he had to find and he didn't just find, he put them away.”

Nervous Witness, who races in the colours of the legendary sprinter Silent Witness (Aus), is the second foal from Hadiklaim who was acquired for A$2,000 at the 2015 Inglis Broodmare & Weanling Sale. Nervous Witness's 3-year-old half-brother Imatruestar (Aus) (Star Turn {Aus}) was a maiden winner at Grafton Aug. 30 and the mare–who hails from the female family of GI Kentucky Oaks winner Proud Spell (Proud Citizen)–is also responsible for a 2-year-old filly by Supido (Aus).

The first 'TDN Rising Star' based in Hong Kong was fan favourite Pakistan Star (Ger) (Shamardal), whose five victories included the G1 QE II Cup and G1 Champions and Chater Cup.

5th-Sha Tin, HK$1,570,000 (£148,714/€173,895/A$277,522/US$201,664), Hcp. (C3), 1000mT, :55.24, gd.
NERVOUS WITNESS (AUS), 121, g, 4, by Star Witness
1st Dam: Hadiklaim (Aus), by War Pass
2nd Dam: Sticky Date (Aus), by Danehill
3rd Dam: Puddinhead, by Affirmed
Sales history: A$110,000 Ylg '19 INGFEB. O-Arthur Antonio da Silva, Betty da Silva & Teresa Marie da Silva; B-Byerley Trading Pty Ltd (NSW); T-David Hayes. Click for the HKJC.com chart and VIDEO. Click for the free Equineline.com catalog-style pedigree.

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Martingale Betting System – Are You Sure?

Very common and popular system among newbies who like roulette, but not a very useful one. Sure, it seems simple and logical – you start with, let’s say, 10 bucks and you double it every time you lose in order to win it back.

Let’s look how the bets increase with every loss – 1) $10, 2) $20, 3) $40, 4) $80… 9) $2960! Okay, it’s very rare to lose 9 times in a row when playing roulette and betting on red/black, but let’s face the facts and more important – the ODDS. The chance of losing 9 times a row is somewhere near 1/500, meaning that chance of losing 3 grands in order to win back your $10 is around 1 in 500…

You may get lucky, of course, and probably you will first few times, but in the long run you lose and when you lose, you lose really big. Hey, I’ve seen roulette ball landing on black 13 (thirteen!) times in a row and I have heard stories of people getting 17 reds in a row. Now, if you take this initial $10 bucks and calculate, you can see that if you keep using Martingale and if you wait long enough, you will lose hundreds of thousands. For example, if you start with $5 and lose 17 times in a row, your last bet will be $327,680. Now – how sick is that?!?!

“If I had the money and the drinking capacity, I’d probably live at a roulette table and let my life go to hell,” said Michael Ventura once. I think he forgot to mention “Martingale Betting System”.

Some people use Anti-Martingale System, where you have to predict a win (6 blacks in a row, for example) and where you have to double every time you have won. If you’ve won three times in a row, start all over again. If you lose, start over with minimum bet (do not increase!).

GamblingRalf recommends Anti-Martingale System (if any system at all, and IF roulette at all…), because it’s not as nerve-wrecking as the others – you don’t have to place cosmic bets to win back your pocket change.

Stakes Form On Offer At Arc Sale

The Arqana Arc Sale, staged each year on the evening preceding ParisLongchamp's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe card, has become a market leader among horses in training sales that offer a quick return on investment, and on Saturday horsepeople in Paris for the Arc will have the opportunity to head to Saint-Cloud Racecourse and make a bid on 40 horses with proven form, some of which have entries on Sunday's big card. Buyers have a chance, then, to source the next Lily's Candle (Fr); bought by Martin Schwartz through Oceanic Bloodstock for €390,000 at the 2018 Arc Sale, Lily's Candle defied odds of 28-1 to win the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac the very next day, and two months later was sold on once again to Katsumi Yoshida for €1.1-million at Arqana's December Sale. And even if the return isn't quite so immediate, horses like Coeursamba (Fr) (The Wow Signal {Ire})-bought for €400,000 at last year's sale before winning the 2021 G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches-show why owners have to have the Arc Sale on their radar. Sourced even more affordably from the Arc Sale were Devamani (Fr) (Dubawi {Ire}) and Stunning Spirit (GB) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}), who each sold for €65,000 before going on to graded/group race success.

The catalogue boasts a particularly strong offering of 3-year-olds, and among those with Sunday entries at Longchamp are Penja (Fr) (Camelot {GB}) (lot 11) and Colosseo (Street Boss) (lot 38). Penja won conditions races at Deauville and Chantilly this season before returning to Deauville to take the 2000 metre G3 Prix de Psyche in August for trainer Jean-Claude Rouget, and she finished second by a nose in the Aug. 21 Prix de la Nonette. She has been declared for the G1 Prix de l'Opera.

Colosseo finished second to St Mark's Basilica (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}) in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains before finishing fifth in the G1 Prix Jean Prat and G3 Prix Daphnis. He holds an entry in Sunday's G1 Prix de la Foret.

The top three finishers of the one-mile Prix Daphnis are in fact catalogued for the Arc Sale, including the progressive winner Bellharbour Music (Mshawish) (lot 37), and the runner-up Partenit (Fr) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) (lot 26), who was making just his second start at Deauville.

The Aga Khan Studs sold Devamani at this sale, and they bring what will be a coveted offering in 3-year-old colt Saiyabad (Blame) (lot 32). Rated 111, Saiyabad won his first three starts this spring before finishing fourth in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club. After a summer holiday, he won the G3 Prix du Prince d'Orange on Sept. 5 and could have a major update by Saturday evening, as he is set to contest Saturday's G2 Prix Dollar at ParisLongchamp. Adhamo (Ire) (Intello {Ger}) (lot 4) won the G3 Prix la Force over a mile and one in the spring and has since been placed in the G2 Prix Eugene Adam. This year's G3 Premio Parioli (Italian 2000 Guineas) winner Fayathaan (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}) is offered as (lot 41)

Three-year-old filly Lady Day (Fr) (Motivator {GB}) (lot 15) is a wildcard entry; she won the Listed Prix La Sorellina in July before finishing fourth in the G3 Prix de Lieurey and the G3 Prix Bertrand de Tarragon.

Tabera (GB) (Gleneagles {Ire}) (lot 33) is an intriguing offering among the older horses, the 4-year-old filly having won the Aug. 29 G3 Preis der Sparkassen Finanzgruppe after finishing fifth in the G1 Grosser Dallmayr-Preis-Bayerisches Zuchtrennen. Four-year-old Kaspar (Ger) (Pivotal {GB}) (lot 12) won the G2 Grosser Preis der RP Gruppe in June, and was most recently fifth in the G1 Preis von Europa.

Among the 2-year-olds that look to have plenty of upside are G3 Renate und Albrecht Woeste Zukunftsrennen S. runner-up Arnis Master (Ger) (Tai Chi {Ger}) (lot 36), who has been declared for Sunday's G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere; G3 Premio Primi Passi and G2 Prix Robert Papin second Baghed (GB) (Twilight Son {GB}) (lot 45); and Scherzo (Fr) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) (lot 24), runner-up in the G3 Prix des Chenes and a half to classy middle-distance runner Calvados Blues (Fr) (Lando {Ger}) and G2 Prix de Sandringham winner Volta (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}).

Selling gets underway at Saint-Cloud at 6:30 p.m.

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Gunite Looks to Give Asmussen Second Straight Champagne

Last year Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen captured both the GI Hopeful S. at Saratoga and GI Champagne S. at Belmont with the fleet-footed Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music) and he looks to repeat that feat Saturday when he saddles Gunite (Gun Runner) in this year's Champagne. The stallion-making race offers a spot in the gate for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November.

A third-out graduate going six panels at Churchill Downs June 26, Gunite finished second behind 'TDN Rising Star' High Oak (Gormley) in the GII Saratoga Special S. Aug. 14. Overlooked at 11-1 in the Sept. 6 Hopeful, the dark bay powered clear to a 5 3/4-length victory over previously undefeated favorite Wit (Practical Joke), becoming the second Grade I winner of the weekend for his red-hot freshman sire.

“He'll be the horse in the field with the most experience so hopefully that does him well,” Winchell Thoroughbreds advisor David Fiske told the NYRA notes team. “Typically, horses that come out of Steve's parents training center in Laredo tend to break well from the gate. Facing all that adversity, that's something some of the other ones haven't faced. Hopefully, he's learned something from all of it.”

'TDN Rising Star' Wit is one of three looking to give newly minted Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher his seventh Champagne win. An ultra-impressive debut winner sprinting over Big Sandy June 5, Wit followed suit with an eight-length demolition of the July 17 GIII Sanford S. at Saratoga and was a clear-cut second in the Hopeful last out.

“He's got learning experience in all three of his races,” Pletcher said. “He's gotten well-accustomed to getting some dirt in his face and dealing with some traffic. We're just hoping for a cleaner start. We tried to break well in his last race, he just grabbed himself a little bit and had to play catch up from there. The track wasn't kind to closers as well.”

His stablemate My Prankster (Into Mischief) enters off a 'TDN Rising Star'-worthy career bow. The bay made a mockery of the field, blowing them away by 10 lengths in his 6 1/2-furlong unveiling at Saratoga Aug. 21, earning a gaudy 92 Beyer Speed Figure.

Rounding out the Pletcher trio is Commandperformance (Union Rags), owned by the stallion-focused partnership of Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable. The bay is still a maiden after a runner-up effort in his six-panel debut at the Spa Sept. 6.

Chad Brown saddles an exciting prospect in 'TDN Rising Star' Jack Christopher (Munnings). The $135,000 FTKOCT buy cruised home to an 8 3/4-length graduation in his career bow going six furlongs at Saratoga Aug. 28. He also notched a 92 Beyer.

“Just off one race, he's going to have to take another step forward, but he was so brilliant with his debut,” trainer Chad Brown said. “We've had horses have success here before doing that–Complexity (Maclean's Music) comes to mind. Off just one race he ran very well in the Champagne and won.”

Completing the field is Kavod (Lea), who will likely be the longest shot on the board off a pair of fifths in the Sanford and grassy GIII With Anticipation S. at Saratoga Sept. 1. He was second in the Tremont S. at this oval June 4.

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