Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Leading Trainers By ROI

Second in a series helping horseplayers learn more about betting Hong Kong racing, by international wagering authority Dick Powell. Click here for the first installment on leading riders by ROI.

The 2021-2022 Hong Kong Jockey Club season began on September 5 and will continue with racing twice a week until July 16. Unlike the jockeys where the top two, Joao Moreira and Zac Purton, won 282 of the 835 races last season (34%), the two leading trainers, Caspar Fownes and John Size, won a combined 152 races (18%).

There are no “super” trainers in Hong Kong and the table below illustrates it. These are the leading trainers and their win percentages. Only five have even double-digit win percentages and the highest is John Size at 13.98%.

 

Trainer Wins Starters Win %
Caspar Fownes 79 640 12.34%
John Size 73 522 13.98%
Frankie Lor 65 574 11.32%
Francis Lui 61 576 10.59%
Danny Shum 57 499 11.42%
Tony Cruz 51 635 8.03%
Doug Whyte 41 517 7.93%
Me Tsui 37 559 6.62%
David Hall 36 404 8.91%
Dennis Yip 34 531 6.40%
Chris So 33 511 6.46%
Ricky Yiu 33 454 7.27%
Benno Yung 32 405 7.90%
David Hayes 32 422 7.58%
Jimmy Ting 31 449 6.90%
Tony Millard 30 386 7.77%
Manfred Man 30 487 6.16%
Paul O'Sullivan 26 377 6.90%
David Ferraris 17 376 4.52%
Richard Gibson 17 249 6.83%

 

Part of this is explainable by field size. The average field size of every race in Hong Kong is about 12. So, from a random point of view, each trainer has a 1 in 12 chance of  winning or 8.33%. If the field size is 8, like it is at many American tracks, there is a 1 in 8 chance of winning or 12.5%. Winning races in Hong Kong is much more difficult, even for the leading trainers.

Takeout on win betting in Hong Kong is 17.5% so an average win payoff of $1.65 exceeds the takeout. The following are the leading trainers from the 2020-2021 season and their ROI based on a $2 win bet:

 

Trainer Wins Starters Money Earned $2 Bet/Horse ROI
Caspar Fownes 79 640 $818.80 $1,280.00 $1.28
John Size 73 522 $953.20 $1,044.00 $1.83
Frankie Lor 65 574 $1,071.20 $1,148.00 $1.87
Francis Lui 61 576 $785.70 $1,152.00 $1.36
Danny Shum 57 499 $767.90 $998.00 $1.54
Tony Cruz 51 635 $735.20 $1,270.00 $1.16
Doug Whyte 41 517 $814.40 $1,034.00 $1.58
Me Tsui 37 559 $791.60 $1,118.00 $1.42
David Hall 36 404 $602.60 $808.00 $1.49
Dennis Yip 34 531 $781.90 $1,062.00 $1.47
Chris So 33 511 $733.20 $1,022.00 $1.43
Ricky Yiu 33 454 $580.80 $908.00 $1.28
Benno Yung 32 405 $830.00 $810.00 $2.05
David Hayes 32 422 $445.40 $844.00 $1.06
Jimmy Ting 31 449 $1,087.10 $898.00 $2.42
Tony Millard 30 386 $519.60 $772.00 $1.35
Manfred Man 30 487 $713.40 $974.00 $1.46
Paul O'Sullivan 26 377 $488.60 $754.00 $1.30
David Ferraris 17 376 $409.50 $752.00 $1.09
Richard Gibson 17 249 $488.20 $498.00 $1.96

 

This tells a dramatically different story as the leading trainers do not always equal pari-mutuel success. So which trainers provide the best value? Here are the trainers listed by their ROI:

 

Trainer Wins Starters Money Earned $2 Bet/Horse ROI
Jimmy Ting 31 449 $1,087.10 $898.00 $2.42
Benno Yung 32 405 $830.00 $810.00 $2.05
Richard Gibson 17 249 $488.20 $498.00 $1.96
Frankie Lor 65 574 $1,071.20 $1,148.00 $1.87
John Size 73 522 $953.20 $1,044.00 $1.83
Doug Whyte 41 517 $814.40 $1,034.00 $1.58
Danny Shum 57 499 $767.90 $998.00 $1.54
David Hall 36 404 $602.60 $808.00 $1.49
Dennis Yip 34 531 $781.90 $1,062.00 $1.47
Manfred Man 30 487 $713.40 $974.00 $1.46
Chris So 33 511 $733.20 $1,022.00 $1.43
Me Tsui 37 559 $791.60 $1,118.00 $1.42
Francis Lui 61 576 $785.70 $1,152.00 $1.36
Tony Millard 30 386 $519.60 $772.00 $1.35
Paul O'Sullivan 26 377 $488.60 $754.00 $1.30
Caspar Fownes 79 640 $818.80 $1,280.00 $1.28
Ricky Yiu 33 454 $580.80 $908.00 $1.28
Tony Cruz 51 635 $735.20 $1,270.00 $1.16
David Ferraris 17 376 $409.50 $752.00 $1.09
David Hayes 32 422 $445.40 $844.00 $1.06

 

Some words of caution:

Jimmy Ting's positive ROI is affected by a win that paid $359.30 but it is still a decent $1.62 without it.

Benno Yung's positive ROI is affected by a win that paid $151.90 but it is still a decent $1.67 without it.

Frankie Lor ($1.87) and John Size ($1.83) are the only leading trainers that are beating the takeout and a couple, Caspar Fownes ($1.28) and Tony Cruz ($1.16) are near the bottom. When making your selections, make sure you are getting a decent price.

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Australia’s The Everest: Horse-By-Horse Preview Of World’s Richest Turf Race

The Everest: World's richest turf race (AU$15 million), inaugurated in 2017. Slot-holder format; field restricted to 12; six furlongs. Track “A,” Race 7 this Friday at 10.15 p.m. Pacific. 

The Setting: Randwick hosts a third straight Friday night of top-quality racing – the temporary rail was out 16 feet last week and moves into the “true” position (0') for The Everest. Rain is predicted across the week; race day could be windy, in which case it can be advantageous to be “covered up” in running. 

The Broadcast: Nick Hines will anchor TVG's coverage; Sky Racing's Jason Witham will be on-track at Randwick; yours truly will weigh in via Skype. First Post: 9:30pm ET / 6:30pm PT.

The Field: All runners carry 128 pounds, except the mare Libertini (124) and the 3-year-old Home Affairs (116). Post positions in parentheses.

#1 Nature Strip (10) 7-2. The world's highest ranked turf sprinter. 17 wins from 32 starts. Prodigiously gifted, Nature Strip was enigmatic earlier in his career. Under Chris Waller's patient tutelage, the horse is finally balancing his brilliance with tractability and professionalism. Has finished 4th and 7th in The Everest; this third time could deservedly be the charm.

#2 Classique Legend (5) 7-2. Went to Hong Kong (where his owner is based) after winning The Everest last year, but failed to acclimate. 83-year-old training legend Les Bridge got his “gray flash” home again in June, and is training him up to the race (used two prep races in 2020). Tries to emulate Redzel, who won the first two editions of this race; jockey Kerrin McEvoy is a common denominator, and shoots for a remarkable fourth win in five runnings of The Everest.  

#3 Eduardo (7) 5-1. The world's second-highest ranked turf sprinter; has twice out-gamed Nature Strip in photo finishes. He was a scintillating G1 winner in March when 2nd-up from a layoff, prompting a similarly timed attack on The Everest.

#4 Gytrash (1) 8-1. Pronounced GEE-trah. Finished 3rd in The Everest last year; desperately unlucky when 3rd last start behind Eduardo and Nature Strip. Career 25:10-6-7, with valid excuses for only two unplaced runs.

#5 Trekking (4) 30-1. Godolphin's aptly named representative is being given a third chance to reach the summit, after finishing 3rd and 4th the past two years. Veteran son of Street Cry needs the breaks, but is genuine and will be closing. 

#6 Masked Crusader (9) 8-1. Ran 2nd behind Nature Strip in an April G1 race; has produced exhilarating rushes from the rear to win two of three starts this campaign, in slightly easier company. 

#7 Wild Ruler (11) 50-1. Would have been an exotics chance on firm ground from a good gate, but has neither.

#8 The Inferno (12) 25-1. Star sprinter-miler in Singapore in 2019-20. Caught fire in Melbourne last month with a G2 win and close G1 2nd. Has never raced clockwise; hard task after being dealt the “visitor's draw.” 

#9 Embracer (3) 70-1. Late replacement for the slot-holder whose Rothfire was sidelined by injury. Outclassed and impossible to embrace.

#10 Lost And Running (2) 20-1. Was hot when running through the grades earlier this year; snapped up early by his slot-holder. Albeit with some excuses, has been more lost than running in both starts this campaign against top-level competition.   

#11 Libertini (8) 30-1. A dangerous weapon when fresh, this mare has deliberately been set for The Everest off a layoff. Has overcome a recent, minor setback. Knockout potential, but prefers firmer footing.

#12 Home Affairs (6) 10-1. Coolmore is replicating the formula that won them The Everest with Yes Yes Yes in 2019 – a (newly turned, on August 1st) 3-year-old colt trained by Chris Waller and ridden by Glen Boss. Home Affairs brilliantly won his seasonal debut, before holding his own in a workout versus Waller's Nature Strip. 

Selection: #4 Gytrash

Wagering Strategy: Gytrash win/place; 20c trifecta 2, 4 / 1, 2, 3, 4 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10

The Final Word: Coolmore's Tom Magnier: “Full credit to Racing New South Wales. They planted the seed for The Everest and it grew into a tree from Day One.”

The Randwick card will be broadcast live on TVG this Friday night (First Post: 9:30pm ET / 6:30pm PT) alongside cards from Eagle Farm, Newcastle and Gold Coast. All races will be live-streamed in HD on the new Sky Racing World Appskyracingworld.com and major ADW platforms such as TVG, TwinSpiresXpressbet, NYRABets, WatchandWagerHPIbet, DRF Bets and AmWager. Wagering is also available via these ADW platforms. Fans can get free access to live-streaming, past performances and expert picks on all races at skyracingworld.com. 

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Half-Sisters, Stablemates Face Off In Friday Night’s Oklahoma Classics Distaff Turf

Alternative Slew has won the Oklahoma Classics Distaff Turf the past two years in a row. This year, however, her half-sister Run Slewpy Run is the 3-1 morning line favorite on Friday night's Oklahoma Classics Night at Remington Park.

Oklahoma Classics Night includes eight stakes races worth more than $1 million for the top Oklahoma-breds in the game. The first race of the evening is at 7:07pm.

Both Run Slewpy Run and Alternative Slew are from the barn of trainer Jesse Oberlander and both have the same mother (dam), Imadancingslew. Alternative Slew is the second favorite at 7-2 odds and probably would be the favorite as the two-time defending champion, but the 5-year-old mare has had only one race since Dec. 12.

“She almost put her eye out in her stall and almost lost the eye,” Oberlander said of Alternative Slew. “It got infected and we had to give her some time off. She's fine now and we were able to save her eye.”

Her half-sister, Run Slewpy Run, has had three races this meet, including a 2-for-2 run on the turf. This 3-year-old filly by Den's Legacy with Imadancingslew by Evansville Slew won an allowance on the grass to open the meet at 7-1/2 furlongs on Sept. 2 and then followed that with her first stakes win at the same distance greensward, the $70,000 Bob Barry Memorial Stakes on Sept. 24. In between those wins, she ran second in the $50,000 Oklahoma Stallion Stakes on the dirt Sept. 10.

Alternative Slew's sire is Alternation.

“These two are amazing,” said Oberlander of his filly and mare. “And their little half-brother is running in the Oklahoma Classics Juvenile, Dancing Devil.”

Alternative Slew won this race last year on Oct. 16 by 1-3/4 lengths as the 3-5 favorite with Oklahoma Horse Racing Hall of Fame jockey Luis Quinonez up. He retains the mount this year. Quinonez moved into second place on the all-time winningest jockey list at Remington Park this meet, passing Don Pettinger. She also won the 2019 edition by 4-1/4 lengths as the even-money favorite. Iram Diego rode her to victory that night. Her half-sister, Run Slewpy Run's two wins on the lawn have been at 7-1/2 furlongs while this race is set for 1-1/16th miles. It will be interesting to see who has the advantage down the stretch.

Mike Jones of Bristow, Okla., owns both horses and is also the breeder.

Another mare that can't be overlooked is Country Daisy, the third horse on the morning-line odds at 9-2, at the rail in post-position one. She ran second to Run Slewpy Run in the Bob Barry Memorial, beaten three lengths as the 2-1 favorite. She beat Alternative Slew in an allowance race on the grass Sept. 1 by five lengths at 7-1/2 furlongs, but that was also Alternative Slew's first race back after more than eight months off.

The National Weather Service is calling for a clear but cool evening Friday night with the high in Oklahoma City reaching 64 degrees. There is no rain in the forecast. Temperatures should be dropping into the 50s during the races.

Here's the field from the rail out with horse, jockey, trainer and odds:

  1. Country Daisy, Leandro Goncalves, Ray Ashford, 9-2
  2. Twilight Curfew, David Cabrera, Ronnie Cravens III, 6-1
  3. Courtly, Ezequiel Lara, Lynn Chleborad, 5-1
  4. Leather and Lace, Lindey Wade, Ronnie Cravens III, 20-1
  5. Hawaiian Typhoon, Lane Luzzi, Austin Gustafson, 8-1
  6. Tic Toc Toccet, Jose Medina, Steve Williams, 15-1
  7. Run Slewpy Run, Luis Quinonez, Jesse Oberlander, 3-1
  8. Tiztheboss, Chad Lindsay, Miguel Silva, 12-1
  9. Alternative Slew, Stewart Elliott, Jesse Oberlander, 7-2

The Distaff Turf is the fourth race of the night with an approximate off time of 8:34pm. All times are Central.

The other stakes events comprising the Oklahoma Classics include:

Race 2 – $145,000 Distaff, 3-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, 1 mile-70 yards

Race 3 – $130,000 Sprint, 3-year-olds and up, 6 furlongs

**Welder, the all-time winningest horse at Remington Park with 16 wins here, will be making the final start of his career in the Sprint. His connections, Ra-Max Farms (Clayton Rash) of Claremore, Okla., and trainer Teri Luneack have indicated he will, after retirement, train to be the farm's pony horse, returning to the racetrack to accompany Ra-Max's racehorses in the post parade and to the gate.

Race 5 – $100,000 Lassie, 2-year-old fillies, 6 furlongs

Race 6 – $175,000 Classics Cup, 3-year-olds and up, 1-1/16 miles

Race 7 – $100,000 Juvenile, 2-year-old colts and geldings, 6 furlongs

Race 8 – $130,000 Distaff Sprint, 3-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, 6 furlongs

Race 9 – $130,000 Turf Classic, 3-year-olds and up, 1-1/16 miles (turf)

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Alberta Stalwart Cape Canaveral Pensioned From Stud Duty

Cape Canaveral has been pensioned from stallion duty at Highfield Stock Farm at Okotoks, Alberta.

Cape Canaveral has been one of the leading sires in Canada since 2008, and he has been the foundation sire at Highfield for 13 years. Cape Canaveral has 18 crops of racing age, 519 foals, 417 starters, 38 stakes winners, 304 winners of 1,046 races and earnings of over $17.5 million.

The 25-year-old is one of the last sons of Mr. Prospector standing in North America, and is out of 1990 Kentucky Oaks-winning mare Seaside Attraction. Cape Canaveral won his first start at two, and went on to win the Grade 3 San Miguel Stakes as a 3-year-old, winning three of four starts before his retirement. He has had an incredible influence on racing in Alberta.

“Cape Canaveral has been a great fit for our program, and has been an asset to racing in Alberta. His offspring are precocious, athletic and have a lot of speed, he definitely stamped them with his best qualities,” says Adrian Munro. “He's been a great stallion for us.”

Cape Canaveral has sired multiple Alberta champions, including Pearl of Knowledge, Onestaratatime and Capitalism. His progeny also helped Highfield Investment Group win leading breeder of Alberta-breds in 2010, 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2020. Cape Canaveral progeny remain strong at race tracks and sales in Alberta.

”For 13 years Cape has been the undisputed king of the farm, and he still has his paddock outside where he can keep an eye on things, and he will remain in the same stall in the stallion barn every night,” says stallion manager Jennifer Buck. “He's been a huge part of our breeding program and we've been blessed to have him. We wish him a long and happy retirement.

As a broodmare sire, Cape Canaveral continues to make his mark on racing. He is the sire of 72 dams of foals of racing age with 182 runners, 128 winners (52 percent) and 12 stakes winners.

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