Equibase Analysis: Vertical Threat Can Lead All The Way In Santa Anita Sprint Championship

This Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes is a “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Although only drawing a field of six, there is not one horse entered who is without a chance to succeed.

  • Leading the field is C Z Rocket, who has earned nearly $1.5 million while winning 11 of 28 races in his career, including the 2020 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes.
  • Flagstaff was beaten a head in last year's edition of the race and has done little wrong in his last four races, winning the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes in May and most recently finishing third and a head behind runner-up C Z Rocket in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes.
  • The third place finisher last year was Collusion Illusion, who had won the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes one month earlier. After taking eight months off following a third place finish last December in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes, Collusion Illusion most recently finished seventh while trying turf for the first time in the Grade 3 Green Flash Handicap and could improve back on the surface where he has won five of eight races in his career.
  • Vertical Threat has won four of five dirt sprints in his career, three of those stakes including the Steel Valley Sprint last November and most recently the Russel Road Stakes.
  • Dr. Schivel, the only 3-year-old in the field, won the Bing Crosby this year as Collusion Illusion had done last year at the same age before finishing third in this race. Winner of four races in a row after losing his first two, Dr. Schivel appears to be on the verge of another top effort.
  • Colt Fiction rounds out the field. Runner-up in the Thor's Echo Stakes for California bred horses only in June, he enters the Santa Anita Sprint Championship off a victory against softer foes in an allowance race.

As mentioned previously, Vertical Threat is a perfect four for five in dirt sprints. Three of those three wins came at the six furlong distance of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. The fastest of those came last November when leading from start to finish to draw off by seven and one-half lengths in the Steel Valley Sprint, earning a career-best 118 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure on par with the 117 figure C Z Rocket earned winning this race last year. Although this field is composed of some top sprinters, none has the early speed of Vertical Threat, which he not only used to win the Steel Valley Sprint but also most recently when winning the Russell Road Stakes. Leading from start to finish on fast fractions for the track at Charles Town, Vertical Threat still pulled away late to win by three and one-half lengths.

Cutting back from seven furlongs to the six furlong trip he so dearly loves, and making his third start after returning from an eight month layoff, I have little doubt jockey Abel Cedillo is going to put Vertical Threat on the lead and play “come catch me” with the field. Considering those tactics were successful in the colt's last two wins and considering the 118 figure earned in one of them is good enough to win in this field, Vertical Threat may be very tough to beat in this situation.

C Z Rocket was claimed for a fairly paltry $40,000 in April of 2020, compared to the more than $1 million he's earned since then winning seven of 10 races. He won the 2020 Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar with a 110 ™ figure before a career-best 117 figure in last year's Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Not disgraced one bit following that when second in the 2020 Breeders' Cup Sprint, C Z Rocket returned in March to win the Hot Springs Stakes (111 figure) and the Count Fleet Stakes (114 figure) and has run well in three races since, all graded stakes, without winning. It's possible the seven year old has lost a step but on the other hand considering he's on the same pattern as before winning last year's edition of this race by cutting back from seven furlongs to six, he must be respected as a contender.

Flagstaff won the Commonwealth Stakes at seven furlongs in April and the Churchill Downs Stakes in May then cut back to six and one half furlongs and ran in to a buzzsaw in Firenze Fire when second in the True North Stakes with a 110 figure in June. Rested nearly three months while pointing to his race, Flagstaff was only a head behind C Z Rocket in the Pat O'Brien and so is on the same pattern he was last year when second in the Pat O'Brien behind C Z Rocket before losing by a head to the same horse in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. That effort tied a career-best 117 figure earned when beaten a neck in the Palos Verdes Stakes in January of 2020 at this six furlong trip. Cutting back a furlong while making his second start off a layoff just as he did when almost winning this race last year, Flagstaff has a strong chance to add to his seven for 21 record on dirt and $1 million in career earnings.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Collusion Illusion (114), Colt Fiction (110) and Dr. Schivel (109).

Win Contenders:
Vertical Threat
C Z Rocket
Flagstaff

Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes – Grade 2
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, October 2 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

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Australia: Randwick Is Base Camp For The Everest

Everest Carnival: With the Carnival now in full swing, Randwick will stage stakes races every Friday night in October. The Everest will be run on the 15th at six furlongs for $15 million. Nine of a maximum twelve contenders are confirmed for the world's richest turf race: last year's winner, Classique Legend, Nature Strip, Eduardo, Gytrash, Masked Crusader, Rothfire, Lost And Running, The Inferno and Libertini.

Friday Night's Historic Feature: Sydney's “Royal Randwick” hosts one of Australia's time-honored handicaps this Friday night, when the G1 Epsom is contested for the 156th time. The  $1.5 million Epsom is emblematic of the tremendous value that Australian racing provides – both as a wagering medium and a sporting spectacle. A field of 17 will commence its mile journey from the top of Randwick's back stretch, at 11.05pm. Pacific time.

The Favorite: #9 Riodini (4-1) finished 3rd in this race last year and is favorite on the strength of two recent narrow defeats at weight-for-age, both at the Randwick Mile. He almost stole the G2 Chelmsford Stakes at 40-1, only to be grabbed in the last stride by Think It Over, before a gallant 2nd to champion mare Verry Elleegant in the G1 George Main Stakes. Kindly treated under handicap conditions, Riodini will forge his own luck in or near the front, and make the higher weighted horses run him down. His trainer, Gai Waterhouse, is tied with her legendary father, T.J. Smith, for most Epsom wins (7).

The Highweight: In Australia, program numbers do not correspond to post positions. Instead, fields are listed from highest to lowest weighted horses. As a dual-Group One winner, #1 Mo'unga has earned his highweight but must concede 12 pounds to Riodini. (Both have drawn wide gates, but post positions are not significant with a three-furlong run to the first turn.) Mo'unga was the first G1 winner for England native Annabel Neasham, a rising star in Australia's training ranks.

Contention Runs Deep: The field includes the trifecta horses from the Epsom's “sister” race, the Doncaster Mile (part of “The Championships at Randwick” each April). #2 Cascadian (12-1) rises seven pounds from his victory over #7 Icebath (8-1) and #3 Dalasan (14-1). Icebath's prospects are enhanced by the forecast for rain leading up to race day. #6 Hungry Heart (7-1) could have Springsteen fans swooning, but last season's top 3-year-old filly has shown a preference for firm footing.    

Selection: #7 Icebath

Supporting Stakes: 3-year-old fillies will also utilize Randwick's one-mile starting point in the G1 Flight Stakes. The G1 Metropolitan Handicap at 1-1/2 miles and a pair of Group Two races add depth to a stellar 10-race card, which includes the first 2-year-old race of the new Australian season (sponsored by Keeneland).

Hot Jocks: Nash Rawiller was last week's hot jockey, on the back of four wins the previous Friday night. Nash again got the cash, riding a triple and sharing the honors with Tim Clark. (One of Clark's three winners was my 5-1 Pick of the Night on TVG, Vangelic.)  

The Randwick card will be broadcast live on TVG this Friday night (First Post: 9:50pm ET / 6:50pm PT) alongside cards from Doomben, Newcastle and Gold Coast. All races will be live-streamed in HD on the new Sky Racing World Appskyracingworld.com and major ADW platforms such as TVG, TwinSpiresXpressbet, NYRABets, WatchandWagerHPIbet, DRF Bets and AmWager. Wagering is also available via these ADW platforms. Fans can get free access to live-streaming, past performances and expert picks on all races at skyracingworld.com. 

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Rising Star Seeks BC Berth in American Pharoah

'TDN Rising Star' Corniche (Quality Road) looks to stamp his ticket to the upcoming GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile in Friday's GI American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita. Topping the OBS April sale at $1.5 million, the Speedway Stable colorbearer wired the field for an effortless 4 1/4-length graduation in his 5 1/2-panel unveiling at Del Mar Sept. 4, earning a gaudy 98 Beyer Speed Figure. His breeding indicates this extension to a route of ground should be no problem and with his rail draw, pilot Mike Smith is likely to weaponize the colt's speed yet again.

Baffert saddles two more members of this seven-horse field in Rockefeller (Medaglia d'Oro) and Flying Drummer (Gun Runner). A $750,000 KEESEP purchase by the group know as the Avengers, Rockefeller led every step of the way in his career bow going six furlongs at Del Mar Aug. 28 and was geared down late, coasting home to a 2 1/4-length win and an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. The red hot Flavien Prat climbs aboard for this two-turn bow and Rockefeller is another colt who should not blink at the added distance.

The maiden Flying Drummer, an $850,000 OBSAPR buy, rounds out the Baffert trio. Missing by a head in his six-panel debut at Del Mar Aug. 7, the gray finished 4 1/4 lengths behind Oviatt Class (Bernardini) last time going a mile at the seaside oval Aug. 27.

Pappacap (Gun Runner) looks to return to winning ways in this event. A front-running winner of his career bow at Gulfstream May 14, the bay was a decisive winner of the Aug. 7 GII Best Pal S. at Del Mar, beating Finneus (Stay Thirsty) by 4 3/4 lengths. He was fourth last out behind the Baffert-trained Pinehurst (Twirling Candy) in the GI Del Mar Futurity S. Sept. 6, in which Finneus was second.

Undefeated Cal-bred Joker Boy (Practical Joke) rounds out the field. Rallying to win at first asking in a state-bred event at Del Mar, the bay wired the Cal-bred I'm Smokin S. last out sprinting in SoCal Sept. 4. He tries open company and two turns for the first time in this leap into the deep end.

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Woodbine Announces New Post Times Effective Oct. 7

Woodbine Entertainment today announced new post times for live Thoroughbred racing at Woodbine Racetrack.

Effective Thursday, Oct. 7, live racing at Woodbine Racetrack will commence at 12:55 p.m. every Thursday, Saturday and Sunday for the remainder of the 2021 season. Post time for Friday live racing will now shift to 4:45 p.m.

The new post times are in alignment with a shift to the North American simulcast market.

The 2021 Woodbine Thoroughbred season runs until Dec. 5.

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