July, 2021 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Gulfstream: Rainbow 6 Pool Guaranteed At $700,000 Friday, Mandatory Payout Saturday

The 20-cent Rainbow 6 jackpot pool will be guaranteed at $700,000 for Friday's program at Gulfstream Park. If there is no single winner Friday, there will be a mandatory payout of the pool Saturday on Florida Sire Stakes Day.

The popular multi-race wager has gone unsolved for 12 consecutive racing days since a June 30 mandatory payout.

Saturday's program will kickoff the lucrative FTBOA Florida Sire Stakes with the $100,000 Dr. Fager and $100,000 Desert Vixen, but first comes Friday's Rainbow 6 sequence that will span Races 5-10 on the twilight program with a first-race post time of 2 p.m.

A 6 ½-furlong optional claiming allowance in Race 7 will headline the Rainbow 6 sequence and will feature the return of Reeves Thoroughbred Racing's Isolate. The 3-year-old son of Mark Valeski is scheduled to make his first start since finishing third in the Nashua (G3) at Aqueduct last November. The Kathy Ritvo trainee entered the mile Nashua off a pair of victories at Gulfstream to kick off his career, including a 10-length romp in a six-furlong optional claiming allowance.

On Saturday the Dr..Fager and the $100,000 Desert Vixen for fillies, both to be contested at six furlongs, will co-headline the first leg of the series that will continue Aug. 28 with the $200,000 Affirmed and the $200,000 Susan's Girl for fillies, both slated for seven furlongs, and Sept. 25 with the $400,000 In Reality and the $400,000 My Dear Girl for fillies, both to be run around two turns at 1 1/16 miles.

Stonehedge Farm LLC's Gil and Marilyn Campbell, who have won 15 FSS races, expect to be represented in both the Dr. Fager and the Desert Vixen, which they won last year with Breeze On By and Go Jo Jo Go, respectively. Michael Yates-trained Dean Delivers, a son of Cajun Breeze who won his debut by 7 ½ lengths in a five-furlong maiden special weight race June 26, is scheduled to run in the Dr. Fager. Kathleen O'Connell-trained Silver Smile, a daughter of Long Island Sound who scored by 3 ½ lengths in her June 3 debut, is slated to run in the Desert Vixen.

Breeze Easy LLC and trainer Joe Orseno are also expected to be represented in both first-leg stakes. Hope in Him, a son of Chitu who was purchased for $190,000 at the OBS March sale, enters the Dr. Fager off a front-running debut victory by five lengths June 4. Stone Beauty, a daughter of Neolithic, is slated to make the second start of her career in the Desert Vixen off a 1 ¾-length debut score July 16.

Alex and JoAnn Lieblong's Big and Classy, Lea Farms LLC's Lightening Larry and Bella Inizio Farm's Laki Lio, all coming off solid maiden victories, are among the likely starters in the Dr. Fager.

Roger Laurin's Demurely, Quintessential Racing Florida LLC's Royal Rocker, and Champion Equine's My Sassenach are among the fillies expected to contest the Desert Vixen.

The Florida Sire Stakes has a rich history dating back to 1982, when it was created by Ocala Breeder and owner Dan Lasater. The six-race series has produced six Eclipse Award champions: Awesome Feather (2010 Juvenile Filly), Big Drama (2010 Sprint), Holy Bull (1994 Horse of the Year and 3-Year-Old Male), Smile (1986 Sprint), Brave Raj (1986 Juvenile Filly) and Not Surprising (1995 Sprint Champion).

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Survey Shows Equine Industry Stable Based On Number Of Horses Owned And Managed

Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the equine industry is stable based on the number of horses owned/managed, according to the results of a survey^1,2 by American Horse Publications (AHP) sponsored by Zoetis. The survey, which includes responses from 7,267 horse owners/managers, found that the top three issues facing the industry are land use issues, horses in transition or at risk and the increased cost of horsekeeping. And, while vaccination rates are stable, survey respondents indicated they are following updated deworming recommendations and adjusting their frequency if needed.

“The results from the 2021 AHP Equine Industry Survey reveal overall stability in the U.S. equine industry in spite of unique challenges posed by COVID-19,” said Jill Stowe, Ph.D., professor of agricultural economics at the University of Kentucky, who analyzed the data and consulted on the results. “Based on respondents' input on management and issues facing the industry, our leaders have helpful information to guide strategic planning and decision-making for the long-term benefit of the industry.”

[Story Continues Below]

The survey, which was conducted from January 18 through April 9, 2021, has three primary objectives: to gauge participation trends and management practices in the U.S. equine industry, to identify critical issues facing the equine industry as perceived by those who own or manage horses, and to better understand approaches to horse health care. AHP conducted similar surveys in 2009-2010, 2012, 2015 and 2018.

Stability Through the Pandemic

The average respondent owns/manages about six horses and 75.2 percent of respondents indicate that the number of horses they currently own/manage is the same as in 2020; 10.4 percent own/manage more horses than they did in 2020. When asked about future expectations of ownership, 73 percent expect to own/manage the same number of horses in 2022, 17.3 percent expect to own/manage more horses and 9.7 percent expect to own/manage fewer horses. Comparing this to the 2018 survey, we see an increase in expected stability regarding the number of horses owned/managed.

Horse Ownership

Growth in the number of horses owned/managed is more prevalent among respondents in the youngest age group as compared to the oldest group. Similar to previous studies, the frequency of owning/managing more horses in the survey year (2021) than in the previous year (2020) is decreasing with age; 21.8 percent of respondents in the 18-24 age category report owning/managing more horses in 2021 than in 2020, while only 5.4 percent of respondents in the 65+ age category report owning/managing more horses. This pattern is also consistent with expectations on horse ownership/management one year in the future: 31.1 percent of respondents in the 18-24 age category expect to own/manage more horses in 2022 than they do this year, while only 10.2 percent of respondents in the 65+ age category report the same expectation.

Event Participation

Survey participants indicate that they expect to compete in an average of 4.3 events in 2021, which is less than the 5 competitions reported in the 2018 study. More than 45 percent of the respondents do not plan on competing at all in 2021, up from 38.7 percent in 2018.

Horsekeeping Costs

Feed (including both hay and concentrates) continues to be the most frequently identified area in which horsekeeping costs have increased. This is followed by costs of veterinary services (41 percent) and animal health products (39 percent), which are stable from the 2018 study.

However, the cost of barn supplies has significantly increased since 2018, from 12.2 percent to 22 percent. Frequently mentioned sources of increased costs in the “other” category were fencing, building materials and insurance. In addition, 22.2 percent of respondents identified fuel/transportation as a primary source of increased horsekeeping costs. It is important to note that if this survey had been conducted later in 2021, when there was a sharp increase in gas and lumber prices, this percentage may have been higher. The rise in horsekeeping costs could force businesses to raise prices even if they don't want to.

Looking at how to accommodate for horsekeeping costs, most respondents reported they will reduce expenditures in other areas of their lives (60 percent), attend fewer competitions (22.2 percent) and pursue other income opportunities (21.3 percent).

Issues Facing the Equine Industry

The most frequently selected issue facing the equine industry was land use issues (43.5 percent), followed closely by horses in transition or at risk (43.1 percent), and cost of horsekeeping (42.8 percent). Frequently mentioned issues in the “other” category include animal rights activists, competition costs, liability and over-regulation.

Although there are overarching issues that span the entire equine industry, there are certain issues of heightened concern in particular areas of the country. For example, zip code regions 4 (Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio) and 7 (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas) had the highest percentage of respondents selecting illegal medication of performance horses and ineffective welfare laws. Respondents in zip code region 3, which includes Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee, were most likely to select the practice of soring as a key issue.

Horse Health Care

Veterinarians administer vaccines for 65.4 percent of respondents' horses, continuing a gradual upward trend from previous surveys (58.2 percent in 2012, 61.4 percent in 2015 and 63 percent in 2018). The percent of respondents who administer the vaccines themselves continues to decrease, standing at 28.5 percent compared to 29.7 percent in 2018, 31.5 percent in 2015 and 34.7 percent in 2012.

Of vaccination-related issues discussed with the veterinarian, the most common is what the horse is being vaccinated for (63.7 percent), followed by American Association of Equine Practitioners (AAEP) vaccination recommendations (40.6 percent). Since the 2018 survey, horse owners and veterinarian conversations surrounding vaccination protocols have decreased.

More than 72 percent of respondents indicate that their veterinarian is the leading influence for where they purchase their equine vaccines, with price being the second leading influence (13.3 percent).

Deworming

Respondents indicate that they are adhering to new deworming recommendations. The percentage of horse owners who are deworming 1 to 3 times a year has increased, while the percentage of those who are deworming up to 6 times a year has decreased.

More than half of respondents (54.4 percent) indicate their veterinarian is involved in developing their horses' deworming schedules—the first time this figure has eclipsed the 50 percent mark. Survey results indicate that just under 60 percent of respondents report their veterinarians recommend a fecal egg count test, declining from nearly 78 percent in 2018.

Respondents indicate that they purchase dewormers from chain stores, local feed stores and online. Veterinarians are reported to have the most influence on dewormer purchasing decisions and their role has become more prominent than indicated in previous studies.

Timing of Surveys Can Be Meaningful

The 2021 AHP Equine Industry Survey continues to build upon the first four surveys (2009-2010, 2012, 2015 and 2018) to help understand dynamics within the equine industry. The initial survey was conducted as recovery from the Great Recession in '08 and '09 was underway, and the following two surveys were able to track recovery in the equine industry.

“The timing of the 2021 survey is fortuitous because it comes on the heels of a worldwide economic slowdown due to the global COVID-19 pandemic—a health event not seen in more than a century,” said Dr. Stowe. “Accordingly, it can serve as an important benchmark in the health of the equine industry now and in the future.”

About the Survey

The 2021 survey was limited to those who currently own or manage at least one horse, are 18 years of age or older and live in the United States. The survey collected 8,029 responses, of which 7,267 were useable.

“Zoetis is proud to support the ongoing work of American Horse Publications and its significant efforts to understand the trends impacting our industry,” said Jen Grant, head of marketing for U.S. equine, Zoetis. “To see a stable U.S. horse population despite the many challenges of COVID-19 is a testament to the powerful connection between horses and their caregivers—a bond we are committed to nurturing now and into the future through our trailblazing portfolio of horse care products.”

“AHP is grateful for its partnership with Zoetis to provide ongoing and vital data on the trends in horse care, management and welfare of horses in the U.S.,” said Christine W. Brune, AHP executive director. “We appreciate the cooperation of our members in promoting the survey and the expert analysis of Dr. Jill Stowe.”

Survey results will be released by Zoetis and AHP members through their own channels. Excerpts from this study must be referenced as “2021 AHP Equine Industry Survey sponsored by Zoetis.”

¹ American Horse Publications. 2021 AHP Equine Industry Survey.

²The 2021 survey faced a number of unique challenges in collecting responses due to changes in engagement on social media, increased privacy concerns, and the polar vortex that hit the Texas area and left millions without power.

Taking Stock: Caravel’s Merryman Legacy

The game is getting smaller and the bigger players are getting larger. That's how it seems, anyway, whether you're talking about owners, breeders, trainers or stallions.

For example, Saturday's sire of the moment was Juddmonte's European-based Frankel (GB). His G1 Epsom Derby-winning son Adayar (Ire) impressively won the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. at Ascot for owner/breeder Godolphin, becoming the first 3-year-old since Frankel's sire Galileo (Ire) 20 years ago to land the prestigious double.

One of the best stallions in the world, Frankel stands for £175,000 and is patronized by high-end breeders like Godolphin, which also races Frankel's G1 Irish Derby winner Hurricane Lane (Ire). Two weeks ago, Hurricane Lane won the G1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp, giving his sire the two best European 3-year-old colts of the season and Godolphin an embarrassment of riches. Godolphin is also enjoying a banner season in North America with such as Maxfield (Street Sense), Essential Quality (Tapit) and Mystic Guide (Ghostzapper) among many others.

It's much the same story if you substitute the “Godolphin” name with Coolmore, Juddmonte, WinStar, or several other prominent ownership groups, just as you can count on two hands the high-profile super trainers that condition most of the top horses or the elite group of stallions that have cornered the market on the best mares in the world to get the drift that racing is indeed becoming exclusively a sport for the “kings” of the game.

That's why it's always refreshing to see success for smaller players on a big stage. These days, it's rare, but it happens.

Juddmonte's Kentucky-based Mizzen Mast, a still-active 23-year-old who stands for a fraction of Frankel's fee and is far removed from the height of fashion, also was represented by a graded winner on Saturday when the 4-year-old Pennsylvania-bred filly Caravel won the Glll Caress S. on turf at Saratoga. The Caress obviously isn't as glamorous a race as the one Adayar won, but it was a triumph for a segment of the game that's quickly disappearing. The filly was bred and is co-owned by her trainer Elizabeth Merryman, who comes from a Maryland racing family that's been breeding and training homebreds for decades.

Mizzen Mast, who stands for $7,500, began his racing career in Europe, where he was a notch below the best of his generation. He was second in the Grand Prix de Paris, the race Hurricane Lane won, but he didn't find success at the highest level until he was transferred to California and won the Gl Malibu S. at Santa Anita on the dirt. Ironically, as a stallion he gets his best runners on turf, and seven of his eight Grade I/Group 1 winners (excluding one in Peru) have performed at that level on grass. In that sense, Caravel is running true to form, and she's reportedly being aimed for the Gl Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. If that sounds ambitious, keep in mind that several fillies have won the race, including two-time winner Mizdirection, who also was sired by Mizzen Mast.

From what I've read, Merryman got Caravel's dam Zeezee Zoomzoom (Congrats) for free after she was done racing. The mare's lone win had come in a one-mile maiden special on the turf at Saratoga, and Merryman sent her, sight unseen, to be covered by grass specialist Mizzen Mast, a friend of small owner/breeders because he gets runners at an affordable fee. Caravel was foaled at her breeder's farm in Pennsylvania.

Merryman acquired her skills naturally and from an early age. Her parents were the late John B. and Katharine “Kitty” Merryman, longtime Maryland owner/breeders who owned the 500-plus acre The Orebanks, a farm near Sparks, MD, where they raised six kids, along with horses and cattle. Her father once headed the Maryland Horse Breeders' Association, and her parents bred and raced the decorated Maryland-bred filly Twixt (Restless Native) in the 1970s with relative Mrs. John Franklin, in whose colors she ran.

Twixt was bred by the Merrymans from an inexpensive mare and was sired by an Alfred Vanderbilt-bred and -owned son of Native Dancer who'd made only three starts (no stakes) and was standing at his owner's Sagamore Farm for $1,000.

I was a kid following racing during this period and was fortunate to see the popular Twixt race several times. All told, she won 26 races from 70 starts, including the Gl Top Flight H., and earned $619,141. She was trained by Katy Voss (who owns Chanceland), Elizabeth Merryman's oldest sister. Of the Merrymans' six kids, five became trainers at one time or another, mostly starting out with their parents' stock.

Back then, this wasn't as rare as it now seems. There were plenty of folks like the Merrymans in the Mid-Atlantic region with similar backgrounds–educated, somewhat preppy, frequently WASPy–whose lives revolved around horses and livestock, whether it was showing ponies, riding hunts, timber racing or racing on the flat. It's a world in which horsemanship was crafted from the bottom up, and horses were developed with patience, because racing them, instead of selling them as yearlings, was the priority. It's why Katy Voss could seamlessly take Twixt to the biggest of stages and compete against the best trainers of the era, just as Elizabeth Merryman has now done with Caravel at Saratoga.

Like Twixt, who was unraced at two and brought along patiently, so too was Caravel. Merryman, who trained Caravel at Fair Hill, started her five times last year at three, winning four sprint races with the filly, all in the Mid-Atlantic region at Penn National and Presque Isle in races on turf or all-weather. Caravel made one start at Pimlico, in the Listed Hill Top S., in which she was third in her lone start at a mile and a sixteenth on turf, but the filly won two black-type races on the all-weather at Presque Isle.

Once Merryman had established that sprinting on turf or all-weather was Caravel's metier, the trainer has honed that aspect of the filly's game and gradually upped the level of competition, culminating in her first graded win on Saturday–her fourth start of 2021. To date, Caravel has won seven of nine starts and earned $367,872, with her best days seemingly still to come.

This is a pattern of development that's rarely seen nowadays because the focus of many, it seems, is on the now instead of the future. You see it all the time with trainers quick to jump young well-bred maiden winners into graded black-type races to enhance value as quickly as possible, sometimes to the detriment of development.

As it turns out, Merryman has been rewarded for her patient approach with Caravel, because chef and high-end collector Bobby Flay purchased a reported 75% of the filly prior to the Caress, and she ran in his silks. Caravel, with Merryman's blessing, has now been moved to Graham Motion's barn to prepare for a possible tilt at the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.

Wanamaker's

Elizabeth Merryman's daughter Liza Hendriks is a graduate of the Godolphin Flying Start program and is co-founder of the monthly online auction site Wanamaker's, which debuted last year. I have no idea what Flay paid for his interest in Caravel, but the filly was available for purchase on Wanamaker's last October before her run in the Hilltop S. She didn't find a buyer and was unsold for a $330,000 RNA–a bargain in retrospect.

As a family, the Merrymans have been strong supporters of Wanamaker's, with Chanceland, Katy Voss's farm, and Ann Merryman (another trainer and sister to Katy Voss and Elizabeth Merryman who races as The Orebanks) also consignors on the site. I've been a longtime fan of Ann Merryman's Twitter page (the handle, @Orebanks, is a paean to the farm where it all began for her parents), but that aside, it's notable that she sold her homebred gelding Fiya (Friesan Fire) to Robert Masiello last July on Wanamaker's for $400,000. Fiya has since won four of five starts for Masiello, including the Maryland Million Turf Sprint H. and the Claiming Crown Canterbury S., and most recently Fiya won an allowance/optional claimer at Belmont on July 4.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Sussex Test for Poetic Flare

At his best when the ground is on the quick side, Jim Bolger's G1 2000 Guineas and G1 St James's Palace S. hero Poetic Flare (Ire) (Dawn Approach {Ire}) has to deal with a testing surface as he faces up to his first test against the fillies and older horses in Wednesday's G1 Qatar Sussex S. Only sixth on very soft in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains at ParisLongchamp May 16 and a short-head second to Mac Swiney (Ire) (New Approach {Ire}) on soft-to-heavy in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas at The Curragh six days later, the homebred is more vulnerable than he would have been without all the rain that has arrived but Jim Bolger is undiminished in his belief in the homebred. “Poetic Flare has been very well since the St James's Palace Stakes. We're very happy with his work and he seems to be improving further,” he said. “He's only had a break in as much as he hasn't been racing, but he's a horse who I have to keep moving and so it hasn't exactly been a holiday.”

“It was fast ground when Poetic Flare won at Ascot and it might well be that he's better on that better ground, but he seems to handle all going and he's pretty good on soft too,” he added. “My preference would be for good ground, but I'm not much given to worrying anyway. Whatever it is, I'll take it. I'm very happy with my horse and I don't worry too much about anybody else's.”

How the fillies stack up against the colts remains to be seen, but TDN Rising Star Snow Lantern (GB) (Frankel {GB}) and Alcohol Free (Ire) (No Nay Never) are among the elite of their sex and their own private duels have seen them win one apiece. Jeff Smith's Alcohol Free was in front of Rockcliffe Stud's homebred on ground similar to this in the G1 Coronation S. at Royal Ascot June 18, but she was only third as Snow Lantern prevailed in the G1 Falmouth S. at Newmarket July 9. Snow Lantern's trainer Richard Hannon had been considering the G1 Nassau S., but opted to stick with her proven route for now. “The decision to run here was in part ground-led, but we wanted to keep her at a mile,” he said. “She is learning to settle now and we don't want to upset her equilibrium.”

“If she gets beaten and is not good enough, we can give her a break and come back in the [G1] Sun Chariot in six weeks' time,” Hannon added. “She's doing nothing wrong over a mile and going a mile and a quarter on this ground might have been a bit of a stretch. If she relaxes, she'll get a mile and a quarter but we can do that next year. Sky Lantern was beaten here in the Prestige, where she looked like winning all the way but was a little bit weak as a 2-year-old. This filly is very versatile and if she got beaten I'd rather it was that she didn't handle the track than she was not good enough. This is soft and then some, but she showed she handled the ground at Ascot.”

Oisin Murphy knows Alcohol Free inside out and is hoping that the easing in the ground will help her in her rematch with Snow Lantern. “Alcohol Free is in great form and any rain won't inconvenience her,” he said. “I was pleased with her when I rode her on Saturday and hopefully she'll run a big race. She won't have any problems with the track at Goodwood. She prefers to meet the ground and the first half of the race at Goodwood is going uphill and then it's practically flat in the straight which will suit her fine.” Trainer Andrew Balding added, “It looks like conditions should be ideal. The turning track seemed to suit her really well when she won at Royal Ascot, so I think Goodwood will suit her really well. At Newmarket in the Falmouth it wasn't the plan to make the running and she rather set it up for the others. Hopefully if there's some sort of pace to aim at, she's got a fairly electric turn of foot.”

Ballydoyle's duo are the GI Breeders' Cup Mile first and third Order of Australia (Ire) (Australia {GB}) and Lope Y Fernandez (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}), with the former coming back to winning form in the seven-furlong G2 Minstrel S. on contrasting ground at The Curragh July 18. Lope Y Fernandez was runner-up in the G1 Queen Anne S. at Royal Ascot last time June 15, which represented his fifth placing at the highest level, and whether he can prevail at last in this company is a matter of how strong the 3-year-old milers are. “We are looking forward to Lope Y Fernandez and we think he's come forward again since Ascot,” Aidan O'Brien commented. “We are very happy with him. He's very straightforward and is progressing well. Order of Australia has come out of his win at the Curragh very well and the Sussex Stakes is a race which could suit him.”

Representing the form of Ascot's G2 Summer Mile July 10, Juddmonte's Tilsit (First Defence) and Abdulla Belhabb's Century Dream (Ire) (Cape Cross {Ire}) were first and second there with the former looking a cosy winner. Successful in the G3 Thoroughbred S. over this track and trip 12 months ago, Tilsit is one who has crept under the radar and as a lightly-raced relative of Kingman (GB) warrants respect. “He's probably come out of Ascot the best he's come out of any race–he's in great form,” Tilsit's trainer Charlie Hills said. “He won a group 3 at the meeting last year, so we know he handles the track.”

In the G3 Markel Molecomb S. for the fastest of the juveniles, Clarendon Thoroughbred Racing's Fearby (Ire) (Havana Gold {Ire}) holds pole position after his five-length success in the Listed Dragon S. over this five-furlong trip at Sandown July 2. Golden Horde carried the AlMohamediya Racing silks to success in the G2 Richmond S. two years ago and are carried by another Clive Cox-trained colt in Chimgan (Ire) (Cotai Glory {GB}), who was strong at the finish on his winning debut at Nottingham July 5. The G3 Whispering Angel Oak Tree S. is a wide-open affair, with the June 17 Buckingham Palace H. and July 4 Listed Queen Charlotte Fillies' S. scorer Highfield Princess (Fr) (Night of Thunder {Ire}) one of the more progressive fillies in the line-up for the seven-furlong contest.EST

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