After an eventful weekend featuring the TVG.com Haskell Stakes and opening weekends at Saratoga Race Course and Del Mar, the upcoming schedule slides into a mid-summer groove with a brief break from “Win and You’re In” qualifying races for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships.
Month: July 2021
How Would Great Poker Players Do as Traders?… Great!
Professional traders of stocks or commodities bear striking resemblances to poker players. Now I know that some of you are already getting angry with this comparison, but please hear me out. As many people today, I have recently found myself quite interested in the WPC (World Poker Championship). I hear people talking about it all the time it seems that we can’t get enough of it. This interest caused me to do some reading on poker strategies. I was struck by the similarities to the many books I have read about trading strategies. If you boil both games down to their essence, both rely on money management, and controlling emotion. After years of trading I can tell you that money management can be taught to anyone with simple mathematics. Controlling emotion on the other hand cannot. In trading as well as poker a person can calculate the odds of the next move to decide whether it makes sense. This is exactly what good players and traders do. Then you have to be able to control your emotions to follow through with your play. Ahh… this is where the good and the great players and traders part company.
In trading I hear the same excuse alot. If I had $100,000 account I would be able to trade
better. Believe me, nothing could be further from the truth. The difficulty of controlling your emotions grows right along with the size of your account. When I was new to trading I thought this same way. I had to change this type of thinking myself to grow as a trader. I think that poker provides an excellent opportunity to explain why this logic is not correct. I made a list of the names of the 15 best players on the WPC tour. I watched the tour on T.V. for several weeks. I noticed that the same 15 people always seem to rotate at the final table of 8 players. Sure there would be the occasional lucky unknown player that would be there at the last table, but names from my list always popped up. In these tournaments you don’t bring your own money, everyone just pays an entry fee. All of the players have an equal stake in the game.
With the popularity of this game today many tournaments start out with several hundred if not thousands of players With all things being equal how do we explain the same handful of players consistently ending up on top. Emotions. Mainly fear and greed. The fear of being knocked out of the game drive them to bad decisions. Later for all those who are still in the game, greed takes over and the thought of winning a bunch of money causes bad decisions. Poker is a game based on mathematical odds of the various hands dealt. Based on that the player with the best math skills would win, but that is often not the case. I’m sure that all the top players are good at math, but there are probably many new players at every tournament that have better math skills. Especially now that poker is the new hot thing to do for a living. No, you can plan things out with perfect math skills but without the emotional control to follow through with your plan it will not succeed.
This is equally true in trading.
Seeing Reduced Performance In Your Racehorse? Study Suggests Switching Steamed Hay Or Haylage Could Help
Pinpointing the cause of poor performance in athletic horse is often a challenge. If it turns out there could be a respiratory cause, then mild equine asthma (EA) could be to blame. Luckily, the common saying that “prior preparation prevents poor performance” can be taken to heart in such situations. While hay steamers have been marketed to horse owners for several years, new research demonstrates that steamed hay and haylage can make measurable differences in a horse's
Mild EA, the preferred term that replaces inflammatory disease, describes horses with a chronic low-grade cough (defined as having gone on for longer than three weeks), decreased/poor performance, and the presence of tracheal mucous when the horse is scoped. Many underlying conditions can be confused with EA. Those include infectious causes (viral or bacterial), upper airway obstruction (dorsal displacement of the soft palate, for example), and exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhage. Some veterinarians have even speculated that those conditions may even predispose horses to mild EA.
“The most important factor contributing to mild EA in Thoroughbreds is the small dust particles horses breathe in primarily as a consequence of feeding dry hay,” explained Dr. Laurent Couëtil, section head of Large Animal Internal Medicine at Purdue University, in West Lafayette, Ind.
Dry hay contains fungi, molds, mite debris, inorganic particles, endotoxins, and other inflammatory molecules. This microscopic particulate matter contaminates the horse's breathing zone, causing inflammation in the lower airways.
“Particulate matter measuring less than 4 microns in diameter results in a sharp and significant increase in the number of neutrophils in mucus collected from the lungs,” said Couëtil.
Particles this small cannot be seen to the naked eye but can be measured with specific, wearable equipment fastened to a horse's halter.
Mucus — a hallmark of EA — can easily be collected from horse's lungs via bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) and microscopically analyzed. The presence of neutrophils in this BAL fluid indicates inflammation. Other inflammatory cells may also be appreciated, such as mast cells and eosinophils.
The amount of tracheal mucous, which can be scored on a scale ranging from 0 (no excess mucous) to 5 (defined as a profuse amount pooling throughout the trachea) can also be used to gauge the severity of mild EA.
According to Couëtil, studies in both Standardbred and Thoroughbred racehorses have demonstrated an association between severity of mucus score and poor performance. As mucous scores increase, speed of the horse decreases.
“A 2006 study performed by Sue Holcomb showed that horses with tracheal mucous scores of 2 or greater were significantly behind in finishing place than horses with a score of 0 or 1,” Couëtil relayed.
Because forage is the most important source of dust that triggers EA, various tactics designed to minimize dust have been explored. Recently, Couëtil and colleagues conducted a study at an Indiana Thoroughbred racetrack. They demonstrated that racehorses actively involved in training and competition that were fed steamed hay or haylage had reduced exposure to dust by approximately 30% when compared to horses fed dry hay.
In that study, Couëtil's team recruited 69 Thoroughbreds and divided them into three groups based on type of forage fed: haylage, steamed hay, and dry hay. All horses were fed this diet for a total of 6 weeks. On weeks 0 (baseline), 3 and 6 of the study, endoscopy was performed after coming back from the track to assess respiratory function and to grade mucous. In addition, all horses were equipped with sensors to measure respirable particles (less than 4 microns in diameter) for 3 hours after returning from training and being fed.
Haylage is grass that is cut and baled at a higher moisture content (about 30%) than regular hay (about 15%) and is package in sealed plastic films similar to shavings bales. This packing prevents molding of the moist forage and allows preservation of the nutritional value of fresh grass similarly to what is achieved with silage for cows. This moist forage results in a marked decrease in dust exposure when horses eat haylage. For the purposes of this study, trainers were each given a hay steamer provided by Haygain.
Key findings of the study were:
- Respirable dust particles (less than 4 microns in diameter) were significantly higher in the breathing zones of horses fed hay. Both the steamed hay and haylage generated the same, significantly lower level of dust particles;
- By the end of the study, mucous scores were significantly higher in the hay group. Both the steamed hay and haylage groups had the same, significantly lower mucous scores;
- BALF analysis showed that the number of neutrophils, an indicator of airway inflammation, increased significantly as the respirable dust concentration in the horse's breathing zone increased; and
- Over time, the number of neutrophils in BALF decreased in horses fed steamed hay and haylage but only reached statistical significance for horses fed haylage.
“In sum, our results clearly demonstrated the benefits of feeding low-dust forages on airway health in just 6 weeks,” Couëtil concluded.
Another conclusion that Couëtil highlighted was that BAL can be performed safely in Thoroughbred racehorses without interruption in racing or training.
“For some veterinarians, owners, or trainers, the idea of a BAL can be off-putting,” Couëtil said. “Many veterinarians are not familiar with the procedure, and others think that a BAL will require resting their horses for an extended period of time after infusing fluid in the lungs.”
The reality is that even if only 50 percent of the sterile saline solution administered is recovered, the rest is rapidly absorbed. Couëtil's study proved that a BAL can be performed without interfering with the training and racing schedules.
“Owners and trainers shouldn't hesitate to perform a BAL in any case of chronic cough, poor performance or when excess mucus is seen by endoscopy after the race,” Couëtil said. “This test can be highly beneficial especially when used in conjunction with the mucous score. The BAL rules in mild EA while endoscopy can help rule out other causes of cough and poor performance.”
One caveat worth noting is that medications are sometimes used for sedating the horse and to decrease coughing during BAL, and it is important to respect drug elimination times prior to racing.
In sum, identifying realistic ways of decreasing airway inflammation, such as a small change in hay preparation, is important because an estimated 80% of Thoroughbred racehorses have mild EA and are not living up to their potential.
Dr. Stacey Oke is a seasoned freelance writer, veterinarian, and life-long horse lover. When not researching ways for horses to live longer, healthier lives as athletes and human companions, she practices small animal medicine in New York. A busy mom of three, Stacey also finds time for running, hiking, tap dancing, and dog agility training.
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Letruska Retains Her Lead In NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
For the third consecutive week, St. George Stable's 5-year-old mare Letruska has been voted No. 1 in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll, while Klaravich Stables' 4-year-old gelding Domestic Spending has risen to third place.
Letruska, trained by Fausto Gutierrez, has Grade 1 victories in the Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park and in the Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park. She also won her most recent race, the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs. A daughter of 2010 Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, Letruska has 13 first-place votes and 280 points.
Godolphin's 4-year-old Maxfied, trained by Brendan Walsh, holds onto second place with five first-place votes and 246 points. Maxfield has won three of four starts this year, including a commanding victory in the June 26 Grade 2 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs. Maxfield's only career defeat in eight starts was a third-place finish in this year's Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap.
Domestic Spending, trained by Chad Brown, entered the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll at No. 10 on May 3 after finishing in a dead heat for first with Colonel Liam in the Grade 1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic. Since then, Domestic Spending has steadily climbed in the rankings, helped largely by his 2 ¾-length victory in the Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes at Belmont Park on June 5. Domestic Spending moved from fourth to third place this week, earning six first-place votes and 216 points.
Winchell Thoroughbreds and Willis Horton Racing's 4-year-old Silver State has won all four of his starts this year, including a last-out victory in the Grade 1 Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan Handicap on June 5 at Belmont. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Silver State rose from fifth to fourth place with three first-place votes and 207 points.
Godolphin's 3-year-old Essential Quality, who won the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets, improved from sixth to fifth place. Trained by Brad Cox, Essential Quality, who also captured the Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, has three first-place votes and 181 points.
Korea Racing Authority's Knicks Go, also trained by Cox, won the Grade 3 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap on July 2 by 10 ½ lengths. Also victorious in Gulfstream Park's Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational in January, Knicks go is in sixth place with 122 points.
Godolphin's 4-year-old Mystic Guide, winner of the Group 1 Dubai World Cup and second in the Grade 2 Suburban at Belmont, slipped from third to seventh place this week after the announcement that he will require surgery for a knee chip. Trained by Mike Stidham, Mystic Guide received two first-place votes and 102 points.
Michael Lund Petersen's 4-year-old Gamine, the 2020 champion female sprinter, has won all three of her starts this year, including the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff presented by Kendall Jackson Winery at Churchill Downs. Trained by Bob Baffert, Gamine has 81 points and is in eighth place.
Moving from 18th to ninth place this week is Juddmonte's 3-year-old Mandaloun. The third runner in the top 10 trained by Cox, Mandaloun was moved up from second to first place in the Grade 1 TVG.com Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park on Saturday following the disqualification of Hot Rod Charlie. Mandaloun, who finished second in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve, has 47 points.
Rounding out the top 10 is another turf star, the 4-year-old filly Althiqa (GB). Owned by Godolphin and trained by Charlie Appleby, Althiqa captured her second Grade 1 this year on Saturday when she took the Diana Stakes at Saratoga. Althiqa, who has 45 points, also won the Longines Just a Game on June 5 at Belmont.
The NTRA Top Thoroughbred polls are the sport's most comprehensive surveys of experts. Every week eligible journalists and broadcasters cast votes for their top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis. All horses that have raced in the U.S., are in training in the U.S., or are known to be pointing to a major event in the U.S. are eligible for the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Voting in the Top Thoroughbred Poll is scheduled to be conducted through Nov. 6.
The full results for the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls can be found on the NTRA website at: https://www.ntra.com/ntra-top-thoroughbred-poll-july-19-2021/
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