Best Bets: Saturday Plays at Keeneland and Sam Houston

America’s Best Racing, Belle Premium American Vodka, and handicapper (and avid gambler) Monique Vág team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend. Vág will identify her top picks as well as at least one longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet. She also will occasionally look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or try to spot a nice opportunity for other wagers.

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‘They Put All Their Energy Into Running’: Prevalence Evokes Memories Of His Sire, Medaglia D’Oro

Godolphin's highly regarded Prevalence will make his stakes debut in Saturday's Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct Racetrack.

The nine-furlong test for 3-year-olds is the final local Kentucky Derby qualifier, awarding 100-40-20-10 points to the top-four finishers.

Godolphin seeks its first Kentucky Derby win but could have as many as three entries on the first Saturday in May with unbeaten Champion 2-Year-Old Essential Quality, who runs in Saturday's Grade 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland, and Group 2 UAE Derby winner Rebel's Romance.

If Prevalence is to join Godolphin's Derby contingent, he'll need to finish first or second in the Wood Memorial to garner the required qualifying points.

Unbeaten in two starts, the son of multiple champion-producing stallion Medaglia d'Oro has yet to start at graded stakes level. The talented bay colt shined going seven furlongs on debut on Jan. 23 at Gulfstream Park, which he won by 8 ½ lengths in paid workout-like fashion.

The debut score had trainer Brendan Walsh and Godolphin USA president Jimmy Bell considering going right into graded stakes company in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth on Feb. 27 at Gulfstream Park. However, a fever altered the colt's training schedule and the connections called an audible with Prevalence returning victorious in a one-turn optional-claiming mile on March 11 at Gulfstream.

“I really think that's the goodness of having an allowance race,” Bell said. “A lot of time you get that wow factor of a first performance and then you don't get that in their second race. In all fairness, it is their lifetime second start, so they are still figuring things out. That's more natural than an issue. Perhaps it's maybe a blessing in going back in an allowance race. He got good experiences in both races. To have those two races under his belt. They were both progressive steps.”

Prevalence breezed a stiff half-mile in 47.60 seconds at Palm Meadows Training Center on Sunday, the fastest of 30 works at the distance.

“His last work showed that his energy level was where it needed to be,” Bell said. “He went a half in 47 and 3 and galloped out as easy as possible, so his energy level right there said it all. He's an easy horse to read. You know where he's at and what he's feeling. Certainly, the extra time and having the Wood Memorial where it is on the calendar was important.”

Bell said the Wood Memorial will dictate the direction of the horse's sophomore campaign.

“When the race is finished, he'll answer all our questions and point us in one direction or another,” Bell said. “We want to let him show us what he is or isn't or what he can or can't do. Even if you can't run a mile and a quarter, there's good races and great careers that come underneath that.”

Prevalence represents Godolphin's legacy and that of his multiple champion-producing sire Medaglia d'Oro as well. The prolific stallion has stood at Darley Stud, Godolphin's breeding division, since 2009 and has been amongst the leading sires in North America.

Bell identified a similar mental strength between Prevalence and his sire.

“They both have that ability to respond to whatever and however,” Bell said. “They put all their energy into their running. I'm a big believer in mental toughness as well as physical ability. It's important to have it all from a physical standpoint but having it mentally all together is also important. During his racing career, Medaglia d'Oro showed up on a lot of big days and was very consistent. This one is consistent so far as well.”

Medaglia d'Oro, a three-time Grade 1-winner who captured the 2002 Travers, also is the sire of Wood Memorial aspirant Risk Taking, who likely poses the biggest threat to Prevalence.

“It would be nice to see a Medaglia d'Oro in the winner's circle,” Bell said.

Godolphin enjoyed a record-extending ninth triumph in the Group 1 $12 million Dubai World Cup last Saturday with Mystic Guide, which will be a tough act to follow for the lightly raced Prevalence.

Bell said Mystic Guide will get some rest and relaxation after a 3 ¾-length victory in the Dubai World Cup. The son of Ghostzapper trained by Michael Stidham was Godolphin's first North American-based and trained Dubai World Cup winner.

Bell said that Mystic Guide could return to action this summer at Saratoga Race Course.

“It's been a phenomenal 2021 for him and us both,” Bell said. “Watching him show us the talent he has and that he can get the mile and a quarter distance was gratifying to see. He'll get a pretty good break coming back home after two just unbelievable races this year We're talking more Saratoga-ish time of the year.”

Never worse than third in eight career starts, Mystic Guide won last year's Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga before a close second to Happy Saver in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park. After a 4 ½-month layoff, he returned to action with a six-length win in the Grade 3 Razorback over a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park en route to Dubai.

“He showed that he can handle any kind of track it seems,” Bell said. “It's never an easy assignment to ship halfway around the world and bring your 'A' game. He handled it all very well. He showed that he's made a big development not only physically but mentally as well. It takes a certain type of horse mentally and physically to handle that travel on a big night. He certainly shined on the right evening.”

The post ‘They Put All Their Energy Into Running’: Prevalence Evokes Memories Of His Sire, Medaglia D’Oro appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Trio Of Turf Races Feature In Friday’s Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 returns Friday with races from Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park and Golden Gate Fields along with an industry-low 12-percent takeout.

Friday's sequence includes three turf races – two maiden turf races from Gulfstream and Golden Gate and a competitive 10-horse $32,000 claiming event from Santa Anita.

The Stronach 5 begins at 4:50 p.m. with Gulfstream's eighth race, a claiming event for 3-year-olds and up going six furlongs. Five of Hearts breaks from the rail as the 2-1 favorite for trainer Kathleen O'Connell and jockey Edwin Gonzalez. Victor Barboza Jr. saddles the 5-2 second choice I Kickn. The 4-year-old has two wins and four thirds from eight lifetime starts. Edgard Zayas has the mount.

Santa Anita's third race serves as the second leg of the sequence. The six-furlong claiming event for 4-year-olds and up appears to be wide-open with five of the seven starters 4-1 or less. Gulfstream's ninth race is up next. The mile turf event for $50,000 maiden claimers is another wide-open affair with a 3-1 favorite in Gary Barber's Blue Lou Boyle, coming off a second-place finish Feb. 10 for trainer Mark Casse off a 13-month layoff. Trainers Brendan Walsh and Barclay Tagg send out first-time starters while trainer Eoin Harty ships Astroturf in from Tampa off a third-place finish March 14.

A return to Santa Anita for its fourth race and the fourth leg of Friday's sequence. A claiming event for 4-year-olds and up at six furlongs on the turf has a 5-2 favorite in Where We At's Castle, who enters off a second-place finish Feb. 21 off a near year layoff. The 2019 winner of California Flag Handicap has Abel Cedillo named to ride. Psycho Dar (4-1) goes out for the Kristin Mulhall barn, which clicks at 25-percent in turf sprints. Gary Barber's Blackout (4-1), conditioned by Peter Miller, gets blinkers on.

The Stronach 5 wraps up at Golden Gate with Race 4, a maiden $20,000 for 3-year-olds at a mile on the turf. Stormin Galileo (5-2) breaks from the rail after a fifth-place finish against state-bred maiden special weight company. Space Odessey drops from an $80,000 claiming event Feb. 27 at Santa Anita for trainer Simon Callaghan. The gelded, Maryland-bred son of Malibu Moon fetched $225,000 as a yearling at the 2019 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Friday's races and sequence

  • Leg One –Gulfstream Park 8th Race: (8 entries, 6 furlongs) 4:50 ET, 1:50 PT
  • Leg Two – Santa Anita Park 3rd Race: (7 entries, 6 furlongs) 5:13 ET, 2:13 PT
  • Leg Three –Gulfstream Park 9th Race: (8 entries, 1 mile turf) 5:22 ET, 2:22 PT
  • Leg Four –Santa Anita Park 4th Race: (10 entries, 6 furlongs (turf) 5:44 ET, 2:44 PT
  • Leg Five –Golden Gate Fields 4th Race: (9entries, 1-mile turf) 5:59 ET, 2:59 PT

Fans can watch and wager on the action at 1/ST.COM/BET as well as stream all the action in English and Spanish at LaurelPark.com, SantaAnita.com, GulfstreamPark.com, and GoldenGateFields.com.

The Stronach 5 In the Money podcast, hosted by Jonathan Kinchen and Peter Thomas Fornatale, will be posted by 2 p.m. Thursday at InTheMoneyPodcast.com and will be available on iTunes and other major podcast distributors

The minimum wager on the multi-race, multi-track Stronach 5 is $1. If there are no tickets with five winners, the entire pool will be carried over to the next Friday.

If a change in racing surface is made after the wagering closes, each selection on any ticket will be considered a winning selection. If a betting interest is scratched, that selection will be substituted with the favorite in the win pool when wagering closes.

The Maryland Jockey Club serves as host of the Stronach 5.

The post Trio Of Turf Races Feature In Friday’s Stronach 5 appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Australia: Melody Belle’s Farewell Tour Of Australia

There are many American graded stakes races with their own rich history which now serve as preps for the Breeders' Cup. Similarly, Friday night's features at Rosehill have become stepping stones to The Championships at Randwick (April 9 & 16). The Group 1 Tancred Stakes  includes the Queen of New Zealand turf, Melody Belle, and other key contenders at The Championships. Be sure to catch all the action live on the new Sky Racing World App or watch on TVG (First Post: 9:45 p.m. ET / 6:45 p.m. PT).

The Tancred Stakes will be the first Australian stop on the farewell tour by mighty New Zealand mare Melody Belle, whose career is of elite status. Striking at a 50% win rate across 38 starts, she recently set a New Zealand record for most G1 wins (14) and will likely set another record when offered at public auction upon her retirement.

Now in the second half of her 6-year-old season, Melody Belle will appear in the catalog for the National Broodmare Sale at the Gold Coast on May 25, where she could attract global interest. Prior to the curtain coming down on her fabulous racetrack career, Melody Belle (5-1) will strive for a 15th G1 triumph in the Tancred, where she will be tested at 1 1/2 miles for the first time. Trainer Jamie Richards is adamant that his superstar mare, who has won from five and a half to ten furlongs, will appreciate the added distance in the twilight of her career. Between the Tancred Stakes and Broodmare Sale, plans call for Melody Belle to contest an undecided race during The Championships at Randwick, before a pair of races in Queensland – her swan song would be a mere three days prior to being auctioned.

Melody Belle will be ridden for the first time by James McDonald, fresh off winning last week's Ranvet Stakes on Verry Elleegant. In the space of a week, “J-Mac” is poised for G1 success on Australia's and New Zealand's best mares – and the 29-year-old would become the fastest rider in Australian history to reach 50 G1 wins. Chief opposition to Melody Belle in the Tancred is expected from Sir Dragonet (9-2) and Angel of Truth (7-1), who were left in the wake of Verry Elleegant and Addeybb in last week's spine-tingling Ranvet. (That pair will renew their intense rivalry on April 16 in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, showpiece race of The Championships and possible target for Melody Belle).

Trainer Peter Moody and jockey Luke Nolen, who enjoyed global fame thanks to the undefeated sprint phenomenon Black Caviar, combine again for the Australian debut of Irish stayer Nickajack Cave (18-1). In stark contrast to the dazzling speed of Black Caviar, each of Nickajack Cave's ten career races have been at 1 1/4 miles and beyond. Moody believes the horse can be competitive in the weight-for-age Tancred, but admits to still learning about him.

“This will give us a guide, as everything we are doing is to try and qualify him for the Melbourne Cup later this year,” he said.

Dreams of the world's biggest two-mile handicap are not misplaced, because Nickajack Cave defeated 2020 Melbourne Cup winner Twilight Payment at level weights last June in Ireland. The 5-year-old gray had previously finished two lengths behind Sir Dragonet, who won the Cox Plate in his Australian debut last October and is favorite for Friday's Tancred. Nickajack Cave (Irish-bred and now Australia-based, yet named for a cave in Tennessee!) has not raced since winning a G3 in his native land last August.

Moody and Nolen also have an intriguing presence in Friday's other G1 event, the Vinery Stud Stakes (Race 6). Princess Rhaenys (15-1) impressively broke her maiden at her second start, but at a relatively nondescript “provincial” track. Unusually in Australia, she competed at a mile off a layoff (19 weeks after debuting). Moody now thrusts her into a Group One at 1-1/4 miles, so obviously feels the filly is an untapped staying talent. Wagering is logically headed by Harmony Rose (9-5), returning to her own sex after a third place finish in the Randwick Guineas (runner-up Mo'unga subsequently won last week's Rosehill Guineas).

The Vinery Stud Stakes is the key prep race for the Australian Oaks at 1 1/2 miles during The Championships at Randwick. The Vinery's equivalent for colts and geldings is Friday's third race, the Tulloch Stakes, a final lead-up to the Australian Derby.

The Rosehill card will be broadcast live on TVG this Friday night (First Post: 9:45 p.m. ET / 6:45 p.m. PT) alongside cards from Kembla Grange, Gold Coast and Eagle Farm. All races will be live-streamed in HD on the new Sky Racing World Appskyracingworld.com and major ADW platforms such as TVG, TwinSpiresXpressbet, NYRABets, WatchandWagerHPIbet, and AmWager. Wagering is also available via these ADW platforms. Fans can get free access to livestreaming, past performances and expert picks on all races at skyracingworld.com.

A native of Brisbane, Australia, Michael Wrona has called races in six countries. Wrona's vast U.S. experience includes; race calling at Los Alamitos, Hollywood Park, Arlington and Santa Anita, calling the 2000 Preakness on a national radio network and the 2016 Breeders' Cup on the International simulcast network. Wrona also performed a race call voiceover for a Seinfeld episode called The Subway.

The post Australia: Melody Belle’s Farewell Tour Of Australia appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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