If Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale gets his wish, many people will be sleeping comfortably the evening of May 1 – himself included.
Month: April 2021
Equibase Analysis: Rock Your World, Known Agenda Poised To Upset Essential Quality In Kentucky Derby
Back at its traditional place on the calendar on the first Saturday in May and using the new 20 horse gate for only the second time in Kentucky Derby history, the 147th running of the Grade 1, $3 million Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve is expected to be a very competitive event. Among the 20 entrants, only four have won two or more consecutive races leading to the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports.”
One of those is Essential Quality, who is undefeated in five races including the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall and most recently the Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Rock Your World is another undefeated colt, having won his first two races on grass before a consummate four and one-quarter length victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby last month on dirt. Another top quality colt sporting two straight wins is Known Agenda, easy winner of the Grade 1 Florida Derby five weeks ago.
Super Stock won another of the major prep races when victorious in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby four weeks ago. Bourbonic posted the 72 to 1 upset in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on the first Saturday in April, and Helium won the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on the first Saturday in March but has not raced since. Another horse away from the races a bit more than some of the others is Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie. The Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks was won by Like the King near the end of March, while King Fury won the final prep of the season, the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, three weeks ago.
In addition to those Derby prep race winners, six horses which finished second in those major races, some by inches, are trying to turn the tables on their foes. That list consists of Dynamic One (Wood Memorial), Highly Motivated (Blue Grass), Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby), Midnight Bourbon (Louisiana Derby), Sainthood (Jeff Ruby) and Soup and Sandwich (Florida Derby).
O Besos finished fourth in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and third in the Louisiana Derby and hopes to improve, as does Wood Memorial fifth place finisher Brooklyn Strong and Louisiana Derby sixth place finisher Mandaloun, who had won the Risen Star prior to that. The field is completed by Hidden Stash and Keepmeinmind, who were most recently fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Blue Grass.
It is with some handicapping liberty every year I will delineate six horses that have the bulk of the probability to win the Kentucky Derby. Some will have a larger chance to win than others, but some of those with a lesser chance may offer a lot more return for the risk when betting and are certainly not out of the question. For this year's Derby the top six win contenders, in slight preference order, are Rock Your World, Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, King Fury and Super Stock.
Rock Your World was bred to adore both turf and dirt. He started his career on the grass, winning with maturity from off the pace in his debut on New Year's Day then going into a stakes race in his next start and winning even more powerfully. Trainer John Sadler has stated, perhaps tongue-in-cheek, the reason for this was to avoid all the fantastically bred 3-year-old colts trained by Bob Baffert which quickly becomes talked about as Derby contenders early in the year. In any event, Rock Your World transitioned to dirt for the third start of his career in the Santa Anita Derby and it was a career-best effort in which he earned a 103 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure.
That's not yet in range of the top contenders in the Derby field, for example Essential Quality (109) and Known Agenda (112), but considering Rock Your World has raced two-three fewer times than those other two horses, it is very likely he can run even faster than he has to date. In the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World led from the start and widened in the last quarter mile, but he does not need the lead to win as evidenced by his off-the-pace rallies in the first two starts of his career.
Since the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World has put in two sensational five-eighths of a mile workouts in preparation for the race so there can be no doubt he's in tip-top condition. Add to that he has a physical presence, as when getting off the van at Churchill Downs earlier this week and noisily announcing “I'm Here” to anyone who was within earshot. Last, and definitely not least, it must be noted that after he crossed the finish line in the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World was not eased up as most horses are. Instead, he was ridden further as if the race was longer in order to remind him of his next task in this mile and one-quarter test that is the Kentucky Derby.
Known Agenda has been a new horse, a phenomenal horse, since blinkers were added one race before last. He won the first race in the new equipment by 11 lengths with a 103 (stakes quality) ™ Figure, though it wasn't a stakes race. Then one month later in the Florida Derby, Known Agenda showed a quick burst of speed with a quarter mile to go when moving from fourth, two and one-half lengths back, to lead entering the stretch. That effort earned a career-best 112 figure which is the best in the field and his pattern for improvement can continue.
Historically, that is the type of burst of speed which wins more editions of the Kentucky Derby than it does not. This is because it's critical to go past a number of horses quickly before many of them will be able to react. At that point in the Derby, there's not usually a lot of passing as many horses have hit the proverbial wall human runners know about very well. The rail draw has historically been problematic in the Derby, and so it might be for Known Agenda, but given 2020 North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. knows him so well after those two wins, I suspect they may be able to hold mid-pace position in the early stages in spite of a number of horses coming closer to the rail to save ground. If that happens and Known Agenda gets a ground saving trip without losing too many positions out of the gate, and if able to repeat the acceleration he showed with a quarter mile to run in the Florida Derby, he could win Kentucky Derby 147.
It is difficult to disregard any undefeated horse, especially one like Essential Quality who won the Breeders' Futurity last fall in only the second start of his career, then won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and who has won both starts as a three year old. The pattern is unmistakable for an improving athlete, with Equibase figures of 88-95-101 and 105 before a new career-best 109 in the Blue Grass Stakes. In the Blue Grass Essential Quality looked like he would never go by Highly Motivated¸ who had led from the start, but as the finish line came nearer his determination took over and he prevailed by a neck. As he is making his third start following nearly four months off, Essential Quality likely has more improving to do and if he peaks in the Kentucky Derby as is certainly possible he could become the 10th horse to exit the Derby undefeated.
Highly Motivated did everything right in the Blue Grass except come out on top in the photo and there is nothing to be ashamed of in finishing a head behind undefeated Essential Quality. After improving throughout his two-year-old campaign with 87, 89 and 104 figures including winning the Nyquist Stakes in his last start of 2020, Highly Motivated took four months off to grow up. Returning to finish third in the Gotham Stakes in March with a 102 figure, Highly Motivated went to the front from the start in the Blue Grass and kept Essential Quality at bay until the final strides, improving to a career-best 108 figure not to be trifled with when compared to the other top contenders in this field. Although not showing the explosive kick at the quarter pole similar to Known Agenda, it must be noted that both Highly Motivated and Essential Quality both quickened their stride with about a quarter of a mile to run in the race and opened up many lengths on the rest of the field. This leads me to believe that in the 20 horse Kentucky Derby field, Highly Motivated may be able to change gears nicely at the critical stage of the race and have a say in the outcome.
King Fury and Super Stock are both likely to be longshots (20 to 1 or more) and although both have less chance to succeed as compared to the four horses previously mentioned, I for one would be kicking myself if I did not at least have a small wager to win on both of them and watch them win at very high odds.
King Fury won the first and third races of his career last year. Both happened to be at Churchill Downs and the latter of the pair came in the Street Sense Stakes. Following poor seventh and fifth place efforts in stakes to end 2020, King Fury was given a good deal of time off, four and one-half months to be exact. Returning just three weeks ago in the Lexington Stakes, King Fury closed from eighth of nine like a flash to make the lead at the top of the stretch and open up to win easily. The 103 Equibase figure is the same as Rock Your World earned in the Santa Anita Derby and definitely can be improved upon in the colt's second start off the long layoff. As a son of Curlin (the same sire as Known Agenda), who himself finished third in the 2007 Derby and who has sired the most winners at this 10 furlong distance of any sire of an entrant in this year's race, there is little doubt King Fury should be able to run the distance successfully.
Super Stock put it all together for the 12 to 1 upset in the Arkansas Derby last month, earning a career-best 106 figure which puts him in the top group of win contenders. He had finished fourth in the Rebel Stakes one month earlier, but that followed four and one-half months off and he may not have been fully cranked up for the Rebel. Having finished third behind Essential Quality in the Breeders' Futurity last fall and second behind King Fury in the Street Sense Stakes in October and now back in top form with room to improve, Super Stock should not be ruled out as a contender to post the upset in this year's Kentucky Derby.
The rest of the Kentucky Derby field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures is Brooklyn Strong (99), Bourbonic (100), Dynamic One (100), Hidden Stash (93), Helium (94), Hot Rod Charlie (99), Keepmeinmind (98), Like the King (95), Mandaloun (97), Medina Spirit (100), Midnight Bourbon (96), O Besos (96), Sainthood (93) and Soup and Sandwich (108).
Win contenders:
Rock Your World
Known Agenda
Essential Quality
Highly Motivated
King Fury
Super Stock
You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, Saturday May 1, at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.
The post Equibase Analysis: Rock Your World, Known Agenda Poised To Upset Essential Quality In Kentucky Derby appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
Take Two: Mr. Buff Looking For First Graded Victory In Westchester
Mr. Buff's path to a potential first career graded stakes win took a slight detour earlier in April when having to scratch out of the Grade 3 Excelsior at Aqueduct Racetrack. But the veteran 7-year-old will get another opportunity to check that box when he competes in Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 Westchester for 4-year-olds and up going a one-turn mile at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y.
The Chester and Mary Broman New York homebred has amassed 17 career wins in 44 starts dating to 2016, becoming a mainstay on the NYRA circuit for trainer John Kimmel. Mr. Buff, who already has secured millionaire status, has compiled 11 career stakes wins and will continue his quixotic quest for a graded stakes win in the six-horse Westchester, which will mark his sixth career start at that caliber.
A half-length winner of the Stymie going the Westchester distance over a sloppy and sealed track at the Big A on February 27 marked Mr. Buff's last start. The Friend Or Foe gelding was the 4-5 morning line favorite in the Grade 3, $150,000 Excelsior on April 3 at Aqueduct before being scratched after showing signs of colic.
After a brief respite, Kimmel said Mr. Buff is ready to run at a Belmont track in which he has posted a 5-2-3 record in 15 career starts.
“He's doing quite well and we're looking forward to getting him back in since we are now eight weeks since his last race,” Kimmel said. “He's good and he's ready to go.”
Mr. Buff has won the last two editions of the Empire Classic over Big Sandy and has trained well on that Belmont main track, breezing four furlongs in 49.09 seconds on April 21.
“He's training great. He hasn't missed a beat,” Kimmel said. “He's won the Empire Classic twice there, so he handles the track and he's been breezing on the main track, so he's ready.”
Edgard Zayas will pick up the mount, breaking from post 5.
St. Elias Stable's Dr Post will be making his first start in nearly eight months, with his 4-year-old bow marking his first start at Belmont Park since running second to eventual New York-Bred Horse of the Year Tiz the Law in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes last June.
The Todd Pletcher trainee has not run since finishing fourth in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy in September at Saratoga Race Course. The Quality Road colt earned black type in two prestigious races for sophomores, following his runner-up effort in the third leg of the Triple Crown with a third-place finish behind Ny Traffic and winner Authentic in the Grade 1 Haskell in July at Monmouth Park.
Dr Post, 2-1-1 in six starts with earnings of $370,635, will pick up the services of jockey Manny Franco, breaking from the outermost post 6.
Novak Stable's Limonite will again link up with Mr. Buff after running second to him in the Stymie, finishing a half-length back in his first stakes appearance since 2019. The 5-year-old son of Lemon Drop Kid earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure for the second consecutive race in that effort, matching the number earned for his five-length score against optional claimers going 1 1/8 miles on February 8 at the Big A.
Trained by Amira Chichakly, Limonite returned to graded stakes company last out in the Grade 3 Excelsior, finishing third in a race won by Modernist. In his 23rd career start, Limonite will be making his Belmont debut, drawing post 4 in tandem with regular rider Eric Cancel.
Wicked Trick also has graded stakes experience at Belmont, running fourth in the 6 1/2-furlong Grade 2 True North last June at Belmont. Trainer Linda Rice, who co-owns the 6-year-old son of Hat Trick along with Stephen Cooper, will stretch him out to one mile for the first time in six starts, with his previous route resulting in a fifth-place effort in the Stymie in March 2020 at Aqueduct.
Jose Lezcano will be in the irons from the inside post.
Phipps Stable's Top Seed will be making his stakes debut in his seventh career start, having compiled three wins in that stretch for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. He made his first start of his 5-year-old campaign in April at Keeneland, running fifth against optional claimers going 1 1/16 miles. But the son of Orb will look to recapture the form he showed in 2020, when he won his debut that February at Gulfstream Park and added optional claiming wins at Tampa Bay Downs and Churchill Downs, respectively.
Top Seed will look to win a race at a fourth track when he ships to New York for the first time, drawing post 3 with Trevor McCarthy set to ride.
Charles Hallas' Backsideofthemoon, fourth in the Grade 3 Excelsior last out, will be looking for his first win since coming into the care of trainer Robert Klesaris earlier this year. The winner of the Queens Colony last December is winless in 15 starts at Belmont but will be looking to buck history, breaking from post 2 with Joe Bravo aboard.
The Westchester is slated as Race 3 on the 11-race program, with the slate's other stakes being the Grade 2, $200,000 Sheepshead Bay for older fillies and mares going 1 3/8 miles in Race 10 and the Grade 2, $200,000 Fort Marcy for 4-year-olds and up going 1 1/8 miles on the turf in Race 5. First post is 12:20 p.m. Eastern.
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‘They Like To Win’: Casse Quietly Confident In Pair Of Lightly-Raced Kentucky Derby Starters
The Hall of Fame trainer will be wearing his game face on the first Saturday in May, but on this day, Mark Casse was happy to be sporting a playful smile.
Just under a week before the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby, Casse, who'll be represented by the talented duo of Helium, and Soup and Sandwich, was his typical busy self, but not too busy to take a few minutes out of his hectic schedule to talk about a pair of skilled 3-year-olds, one of whom could deliver him a cherished first.
Having already won two-thirds of the U.S. Triple Crown, the 2019 Preakness with War of Will, and the 2019 Belmont with Sir Winston, the conditioner with over 3,050 career victories, a record 13 Sovereign Awards (as Canada's champion trainer), and dual Hall of Fame credentials, will look to add a Kentucky Derby triumph to his vast list of accomplishments.
“I guess the one thing that comes to mind first is that they like to win,” said Casse of his Derby twosome. “Combined, they've started six times and have five wins and a second. I look at them both and shake my head in amazement in what they've been able to accomplish in such short racing careers. I'm very, very happy with them.”
The Indianapolis native has plenty of reason to be.
Helium, a bay son of Ironicus, is a perfect three-for-three in his career. The Kentucky-bred, owned by D.J. Stable LLC, made his first two starts over the Woodbine Tapeta, including a win second time out in the Display Stakes last October.
“He kind of surprised me when he ran first time and won,” recalled Casse of the maiden special weight score on September 27 at the Toronto oval. “He ran better than expected. I thought his next race was very good at Woodbine too. We were looking forward to running him in the Grey Stakes, but obviously because of weather and then COVID, that wasn't possible.”
The original 2021 plan for Helium, a $55,000 purchase at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Yearling Sale, called for him to make his sophomore debut in the Grade 3 Lecomte on January 16 at Fair Grounds, but a wrenched ankle sidelined the colt temporarily. He was brought to Ocala and given about 10 days off before resuming training.
“He had a few hiccups along the way, but he trained well leading up to his first race of this year.”
That first race was the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 6.
Casse considers the performance one of the most impressive he's seen over his 40-plus years in racing.
“I would say in all my time training, I've never seen a horse overcome so many different variables that said he shouldn't have won. From not running in four-and-a-half months, to first time on dirt, to first time around two turns, and his wide trip… I just never thought in a million years he could win running so wide.”
Those are just some of the reasons why he's confident of his charge's chances in the Derby.
While Helium isn't being billed as a top contender, Casse is happy to float above the radar leading up to the big race.
“A lot of people are underestimating him because they look at his Beyer from the Tampa Bay Derby. If you look at his Thoro-Graph numbers, which to me is my bible, what I go by, his number is extremely good. It's a 3. It usually takes a 1 or a ½ to win the Derby, so it's definitely within his range, especially if he improves off his last race. He's come back and trained well. He has this habit and it's that he likes to win.”
Soup and Sandwich has been as equally impressive in the lead-up to the biggest race of his career to-date.
Bred and owned by Live Oak Plantation, the Florida-bred son of Into Mischief didn't race as a 2-year-old but turned plenty of heads with a stellar runner-up showing in the Florida Derby on March 27.
The second-place performance was the third start for Soup and Sandwich, who won his debut at Gulfstream Park on January 28, and followed it up with another winner's circle trip, this time at Tampa Bay Downs on February 24.
“He was a horse that we thought a lot of as a 2-year-old,” offered Casse. “He still hasn't grown up completely. He's kind of a teenage kid. He doesn't always pay attention and has a short attention span. But he's gotten better. His first race was good, I thought his second race was excellent, and I thought his Florida Derby race was very good. In keeping with Thoro-Graph numbers, he ran a 1 ¾, which is huge. Looking at that, I think he has 65 per cent chance to run as good a race or better. It's big. It's really big. Both of these horses just have to move up a little bit to be right there in the Derby. I couldn't be happier really.”
Casse isn't the only one.
His jockeys for the big race seem to like their Derby chances as well.
“It's a funny little story. Tyler [jockey, Gaffalione], the first time he was on Soup and Sandwich – he worked him the other day – it happened that Julien [jockey, Leparoux] was helping us out, working another horse, not Helium. Pulling up, Tyler said, 'We're going to win the Kentucky Derby.' He was so excited after working the horse. Julien told him, 'Wait a second… you can be a good second.' So there's already a little smack talk going on. I think both riders are extremely excited and happy with their horses, just as I am.”
What would it mean for Casse to notch his first Derby victory?
“I may retire,” he said with a grin.
For now, it's all smiles with Casse.
It won't be long, however, until he's dialed-in on Derby day, game face and all.
The post ‘They Like To Win’: Casse Quietly Confident In Pair Of Lightly-Raced Kentucky Derby Starters appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
