March, 2021 | Horse Racing Free Tips

‘I Can’t Believe It’: 300-1 Shocker Provides ‘Massive Thrill’ In Australian Guineas

There are shock results, and then there are shock results. In a triumph described as “surreal” by his connections, Lunar Fox became one of the longest-priced G1 winners of all time anywhere in the world with a 300-1 victory in the Australian Guineas at Flemington.

“I can't believe it – it hasn't sunk it,” said jockey Michael Dee after landing his fifth G1 success. “To be honest, I didn't give him much hope and no one else really did either! It's obviously a massive thrill and I can't believe it has just happened.”

Australian sources were left racking their brains to find an equivalent – but all were agreed this was certainly the biggest price to succeed at the top level for at least 35 years, going back to 250-1 winner Abaridy in the Caulfield Guineas of 1986.

Blinkers seemed to make a profound difference to Lunar Fox, who had come 12th of 14 on his previous outing in the G3 CS Hayes Stakes at the same venue just two weeks ago.

The son of Foxwedge wore down front-running favorite Tagaloa in the closing stages and the line came just soon enough to deny Cherry Tortoni, who flew home from the rear, by a half-length.

Trainer's representative Holly McKechnie was queried by Racing Victoria stewards about the horse's improvement.

Holly McKechnie (representing trainer Paul Preusker): “It's a bit surreal at this stage. I can't believe it. He's always had a lot of ability, this horse. Obviously last start he ran below par and we couldn't really find any issue. We've done the old trick with the blinkers and it seems to have done the job. Last time was just out of character. He's always trying this horse. Getting to the outside and the additions of blinkers certainly helped him.”

Michael Dee (jockey): “All I could do today was do my job and do it to the best of my ability and hopefully the horse ran well in doing so. Having the blinkers on today and just a massive improvement. They drilled it into me before the race to stay off the fence. From the gate we were able to get the perfect run three-wide and work into it.”

This story originally appeared on Horse Racing Planet and is reprinted here with permission.

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Million-Dollar Matings

The fireworks at the annual Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton November sales are always a highlight of the year as seven-figure bids abound on some of racing's top broodmares and broodmare prospects. But after the dust settles, it can be years before words get out on the breeding careers of the sales' top offerings. We catch up with the connections of a few of these most recent million-dollar broodmares and learn of their mating plans for 2021 in our ongoing 'Million-Dollar Matings' series.

CONSTELLATION (Bellamy Road-For Royalty, by Not For Love)

Sale: 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale

Purchaser/Owner: Don Alberto Corporation

Produce Record: 2019 Curlin colt, 2021 Into Mischief filly

2021 Booking: Quality Road

Offered carrying her first foal by Curlin, Grade I winner and 'TDN Rising Star' Constellation was purchased for $3.15 million by the Don Alberto Corporation at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

Her Curlin colt would go on to sell for $250,000 to Repole Stables and St. Elias Stables at last year's Keeneland September Sale.

After visiting Into Mischief but failing to produce a foal in her first year with Don Alberto, she was bred back to the Spendthrift sire last year.

Don Alberto's former Executive Director Fabricio Buffolo reported that Constellation foaled her Into Mischief filly on Jan. 31.

“We are extremely happy that she had a nice, robust filly,” he said. “She has been developing well. You can tell that she has all the parts there to turn into a nice filly as she grows.”

Buffolo said that Constellation will be bred to Quality Road this year.

“It will be interesting to see how she will produce with a horse like him with more scope and size,” he noted. “It's all about getting to know the mares and how they produce and it's a mating that has some contrasts on the physical aspect, which sometimes can be rewarding. Bellamy Road has only three blacktype winners as a broodmares sire and all three are from Mr. Prospector-line stallions.”

After a 'Rising Star'-worthy debut win as a juvenile for LNJ Foxwoods, Constellation ran in the money in her next two graded starts before capping off her 2-year-old season with a win in the Furlough S. As a sophomore, she added two more stakes wins before taking the GI La Brea S. At four, the chestnut ran second in four straight graded races including the GI Madison S. at Keeneland.

CALEDONIA ROAD (Quality Road-Come A Callin, by Dixie Union)

Sale: 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale

Purchaser/Owner: Narvick International

Produce Record: 2020 Justify filly, 2021 Justify colt

2021 Booking: Kizuna (Jpn)

Eclipse Champion Caledonia Road was purchased by agent Emmanuel de Seroux of Narvick International for $2.3 million at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

The million-dollar earner was bred to Justify as a maiden and produced a filly in January last year. De Seroux reported that the filly is “doing great” at the Ito family's Grand Farm in Japan, where Caledonia Road also resides.

The mare was bred back to Justify and foaled a colt on Jan. 27 this year.

“He's reported to be a very good foal,” de Seroux said.

This year, Caledonia Road will visit champion Kizuna, a son of the late influential Japanese sire Deep Impact and the leading Japanese freshman sire in 2019.

Trained by Ralph Nicks, Caledonia Road won on debut and ran second in the GI Frizette S. before taking the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filles to win Eclipse honors for Champion 2-Year-Old Filly in 2017. She is a half-sister to stakes winner One of a Kind (Lemon Drop Kid) and hails from the family of Grade I winners Data Link (War Front) and Hymn Book (Arch).

CATHRYN SOPHIA (Street Boss-Sheave, by Mineshaft)

Sale: 2017 Keeneland November Sale

Purchaser/Owner: Bridlewood Farm and Don Alberto

Produce Record: 2018 Pioneerof the Nile filly, 2019 Medaglia d'Oro filly, 2020 Into Mischief colt. In foal to Curlin.

2021 Booking: None

One year after Bridlewood Farm and Don Alberto partnered up to buy a sales-topping Baffled (Distorted Humor) for $3.5 million, the same duo went to $2.3 million at the 2017 Keeneland November Sale to purchase 'TDN Rising Star' Cathryn Sophia. The 2016 Oaks heroine was carrying her first foal by Pioneerof the Nile.

The Pioneerof the Nile filly, now named Mezcal, was purchased for $625,000 at the 2019 Keeneland September Sale by Bobby Flay, but does not yet have any recorded works or starts.

Cathryn Sophia produced a Medaglia d'Oro filly in 2019 and last year, foaled an Into Mischief colt in May.

“He is a late foal that has developed so well over the last few months,” said Don Alberto's Fabricio Buffolo. “He is a strong individual and typical of what you expect of the sire.”

Buffolo reported that this year, Cathryn Sophia is in foal to Curlin. A similar mating proved successful when the Hill 'n' Dale sire produced champion and young sire Vino Rosso with a Street Cry (Ire) mare.

Because Cathryn Sophia's Curlin foal is expected to arrive late, Buffolo said that she will take a year off this year.

Purchased as a yearling by Cash Is King LLC and trained by John Servis, Cathryn Sophia broke her maiden on debut by 12 3/4 lengths before crushing the competition in the Gin Talking S. by 16 1/4 lengths in her next start. She won her sophomore debut in the GII Forward Gal. and maintained the undefeated streak in the GII Davona Dale S. After a third-place finish in the GI Ashland S., the Maryland-bred scored a victory in the GI Kentucky Oaks. In the later half of her sophomore season, she ran third in both the GI Acorn S. and GI Cotillion S. and caught a win in the Princess of Sylmar S.

Cathryn Sophia was offered at the 2016 Fasig-Tipton November Sale as a broodmare or racing prospect and sold to SF Bloodstock for $1.4 million. It was announced a month later that she would retire from racing, and she returned to the sales ring a year later in foal to Pioneerof the Nile.

GALILEO GAL (Galileo (Ire)-Alpha Lupi (Ire), by Rahy)

Sale: 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale

Purchaser/Owner: Craig Bernick

Produce Record: 2020 Kingman (GB) filly. In foal to Lope de Vega (Ire).

2021 Booking: Kingman (GB)

The regally-bred Galileo Gal was offered at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale. Watch out feature leading up to the sale here. She was purchased by Craig Bernick for $1.4 million.

She was sent to Norelands Stud in Ireland and was first bred to Juddmonte's hot young sire Kingman.

That mating produced a filly that is now a yearling.

“We are happy with [her],” Bernick said. “Our plan is to put her into training with Jessica Harrington next year.”

Galileo Gal was next bred to Ballylinch Stud's Lope de Vega (Ire) and Bernick reported that she is expected to foal any day now. She will return to Kingman later this year.

Bred by the Niarchos family, Galileo Gal was purchased by Gary Barber as a yearling and brought to race in North America, where she was a winner at three and four. The chestnut is a half-sister to champion and four-time Group 1 winner Alpha Centauri (Ire) (Mastercraftsman {Ire}), as well a second G1 Coronation S. winner in Alpine Star (Ire) (Sea the Moon {Ger}) and stakes winner Tenth Star (Ire) (Dansili {GB}). Her family includes several other champions in Miesque (Nureyev), East of the Moon (Private Account) and Rumplestiltskin (Ire) (Danehill), as well as Group 1 winners and sires Kingmambo (Mr. Prospector) and Karakontie (Jpn) (Bernstein).

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Letters to the Editor: On the 140-Mare Cap

There is no simple answer to the question of whether or not it is in the interests of breeders in the United States to limit the number of mares any stallion can cover. However, we can be certain that none of the relevant arguments should be concerned with questions of free markets. Not even the most dogmatic of believers in the efficiency of free markets would, after a moment's reflection, consider the market for stallion seasons to have the appropriate characteristics.

A free market is one in which no one player, on either the supply or demand side, holds a dominant position, and it is also one in which all the relevant information is available freely to both buyers and sellers. In the stallion market, there are of course players who hold a dominant position and these and others have always resisted attempts to create a more open market where everybody is aware of changes in prices and supply. More often than not, when you sign the contract for a stallion season, you are not entirely sure of either how many mares the stallion in question will cover, nor the exact price paid by other breeders using the same horse. This is not a criticism; it is simply the way markets function without regulation. The players in any market will of course try to maximize their rent or return without considering the interests of all the other participants. For a market to be and to remain free there have to be rules.

Once it became technically and physically possible for stallions to cover successfully anything up to and beyond 200 mares during the spring covering season it was inevitable that many stallion owners would chose to do so. Particularly as almost as immediately it become clear that the demand for seasons to successful and popular stallions is inelastic to both price and supply. The market for stallion seasons is not at all similar to those for ordinary agricultural products, where you expect demand to fall when the price rises and for prices to fall if there is an expansion of supply. We have seen many examples in both the United States and Europe showing that when a stallion is commercially hot, demand for seasons is almost limitless, whatever the price and the number of mares due to be covered.

The market for stallion seasons resembles those for luxury goods. To begin to understand the way it works you have to think about top of the range handbags rather than grain or potatoes.

Once a handbag acquires the status of a symbol, the more expensive it is, the most desirable it becomes and the more often it appears on the shoulders of the right people, the more others want to have it on theirs. The peak satisfaction comes at the moment of purchase, the instant when you join the club of those who have it. The thrill lingers on, but in many cases, it will not be quite so exquisite in the future. For every product, there will probably be a price and a supply which is just too much, but in both cases, experience has taught that it is higher and bigger than anyone would have thought possible viewing through the prism of utility or efficiency.

In the early days, many thought that big stallion books would be a passing phase. Commercial breeders would soon realize that it was not in their interests to pay a lot of money for a season only to go to the sales to compete with anything up to 100 other yearlings by the same sire. This again was a misconception as breeders, as much as those who buy yearlings, are searching for a dream. Most breeders sign the contract avidly, aware of the competition ahead, but confident that their mating will produce one of the best by the sire who will shine in the sales ring and on the track afterwards.

Given the nature of the market, does it make sense to restrict the number of seasons offered to any stallion? After all, few would suggest that Hermes should be allowed to make only a certain number of its most sought after handbags, even if the number any customer is allowed to buy is limited. There are probably two sides to any attempt to answer. The proposed limitation will surely open up the market to a wider range of both horses and people who stand them. Some of the mares covered in the past by the most popular sires will instead be covered by others. The business will not be lost, but will be spread over more sires with different owners. The bloodstock market consistently fails to select the best stallions when they first go to stud. From Tapit, Into Mischief or War Front to Dubawi, Galileo and Siyouni in Europe, the best sires are rarely rated at the top of their generation when they start out on their stud career. For this reason alone, any regulation which forces breeders to try a wider selection of new stallions will probably be beneficial for everybody in the medium run. And then by lowering the barriers to entry and the advantages of the established farms, it will also encourage new stallion owners and farms to enter the business.

The second part of the argument concerns the long or medium term effect of concentrating breeding on an ever smaller selection of elite sires. No genetic test is ever going to resolve this conundrum as nobody knows for sure exactly which physical and mental characteristics allow one horse to run faster than another. In some ways breeding has its own built in adjustments as the future will never be a repeat of the recent past. The success of one super-sire will on its own change the type of mare likely to be successful in the future. As the breed itself is continually changing, and so are the type of sire and mare most likely to succeed.

However, anybody who has worked on matings knows there is already a problem of inbreeding with Thoroughbreds, particularly in Europe, and this is a one which is going to get worse as books of 150+ mares have only become common relatively recently. A look at the Thoroughbreds' past suggests that excessive inbreeding will throw up a few superior individuals, but will also create weaknesses and failures of both physical and mental characteristics. Successful breeders are always thinking about future generations and if the market is pushing in one direction nudging breeders towards prudence and variety will probably help everybody in the medium term.

One possible compromise would be to restrict the number of mares any stallion can cover during its first five seasons at stud, while allowing the handful of sires who are still popular and sought after at this point in their careers to cover more. This way, you could push breeders to try a broader selection of sires, while allowing the owners of those who prove to be the best to maximize their return.

No organization is in a position to contemplate imposing similar restrictions in Europe. If The Jockey Club succeeds in doing so, breeders from all over the world will of course, be following the experiment.

–Jocelyn de Moubray

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Miss Chapin Delivers Oscar Performance Colt At Mill Ridge Farm As Part Of National Museum Of Racing’s Foal Patrol Season 4

Miss Chapin, a 20-year-old mare owned by Mrs. Jerry Amerman, delivered a colt by stallion Oscar Performance at 2:23 a.m. on Feb. 26 at Mill Ridge Farm as part of the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame's Foal Patrol Season 4.

This is the first foal of the season delivered on Foal Patrol. Both the mare and foal are healthy and doing well.

Miss Chapin, a daughter of Royal Academy, delivered her Oscar Performance colt eight days after her expected foaling date of Feb. 18. There are four mares participating in Foal Patrol Season 4, as well as the stallion Tapit at Gainesway Farm. The next mare scheduled to deliver is Miss Always Ready at Three Chimneys Farm in Versailles, Ky. Both Janae (Safari North, Versailles, Ky.) and To the Moon Alice (Old Tavern Farm, Saratoga Springs, N.Y.) are scheduled to deliver in April.

Foal Patrol is a one-of-a-kind interactive web project. Season 4 features a collection of live cameras where people can view real-time streams of several mares and their foals and the stallion Tapit. The live camera feeds will be available according to each horse's daily schedule, set by the farm. For more information, please visit www.foalpatrol.com.

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