March, 2021 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Baffert: Rebel Stakes Offers ‘Perfect Timing’ For Unbeaten Concert Tour

Perhaps no trainer in Oaklawn's 117-year history has had a tighter hold on a high-end race than Bob Baffert. That race, of course, is the Rebel Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles.

The Southern California-based Baffert has been represented by 13 horses in the Rebel – at least one starter every year since his first in 2010 – and has won the race a record seven times, finished second three times and third once, bankrolling a whopping $3,171,000 in purses.

“The reason I've been so successful is I've brought some serious horses up there,” Baffert said Tuesday afternoon. “I usually try to bring my best horses there.”

The Hall of Fame trainer bids for an eighth Rebel victory when he sends out unbeaten Concert Tour (2 for 2) and recent maiden graduate Hozier in Saturday's $1 million race. Both horses arrived at Oaklawn at 11:30 am Wednesday after a Tex Sutton flight from California. The Rebel is Oaklawn's third of four Kentucky Derby points races.

Baffert has won the Rebel with Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old males Lookin At Lucky (2010) and American Pharoah (2015) and was runner-up, beaten a nose, in the second division in 2019 with another champion juvenile male, Game Winner. Baffert won the race in 2012 with future Breeders' Cup Sprint champion Secret Circle. A future Eclipse Award-winning older dirt male, Improbable, finished second in the first division in 2019. Baffert's other Rebel winners, The Factor (2011), Hoppertunity (2014), Cupid (2016) and Nadal (2020), all went on to capture Grade 1 events.

Lookin At Lucky used the Rebel as a springboard to a Preakness victory and another Eclipse Award (champion 3-year-old male) in 2010. American Pharoah raised the bar five years later, sweeping the Triple Crown and being named Horse of the Year.

Clearly, the Rebel has become a race Baffert circles each year in mapping out the best route to reach Churchill Downs, and beyond.

“It's an easy ship,” Baffert said. “It's a real easy ship. The flight's a couple of hours and it's a nice track. I like the surface there. I like Oaklawn. I wish I could go myself, but somebody's got to stay here all the time. I just think it's a good gauge because there's always nice horses up there.”

Baffert's most accomplished 2021 entrant is Concert Tour, who will be making his two-turn debut in the Rebel. Concert Tour's resume is virtually identical to Nadal (then 2 for 2) before the 2020 Rebel.

Concert Tour broke his maiden Jan. 15 at Santa Anita and won the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2) Feb. 6 at Santa Anita. Nadal, in 2020, broke his maiden Jan. 19 at Santa Anita and won the San Vicente (G2) Feb. 9 before his successful two-turn debut in the Rebel (G2) March 14.

“The timing's right for this horse, Concert Tour,” Baffert said. “He's sort of on the same path as Nadal. It's all about timing. This race happened to come up perfect timing for him. So, we'll stretch him out. We're getting close now. I just want to see a good effort out of him, see how he's going to ship, how he's going to handle the ship, then shipping to run against some really nice horses. This is where they start to see if you're fit or not on the road to the Derby.”

A son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Concert Tour is a homebred for Gary and Mary West. The Wests have campaigned, among others, Rockamundo, who sprang a monumental upset in the 1993 Arkansas Derby, and Game Winner. They also have another leading Kentucky Derby candidate, unbeaten homebred Life Is Good, with Baffert.

Hozier is by Baffert's 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up, Pioneerof the Nile, out of multiple graded stakes winner Merry Meadow. Purchased for $625,000 at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale, Hozier finished fourth, beaten 14 lengths by Concert Tour, in his Jan. 15 career debut before breaking his maiden at 1 1/16 miles Feb. 15 at Santa Anita.

“I would have preferred an allowance race for him, but we just couldn't get them to fill out here,” Baffert said. “It's tough. So, I thought, 'Well, he's doing good and maybe like Spielberg he'll get a little piece of it or something.' If things go crazy on the front end, you never know.”

Spielberg, also trained by Baffert, finished second to champion Essential Quality in the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 27 at Oaklawn. The Southwest, originally scheduled to be run Feb. 15 before being postponed twice because of harsh winter weather, was Oaklawn's second Kentucky Derby points race.

The Rebel will offer 85 points (50-20-10-5, respectively) to the top four finishers toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby, which is limited to 20 runners. Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a record-tying six times, including last year's rescheduled version (COVID-19) with eventual Horse of the Year Authentic and in 2018 with Justify, who would also capture the Triple Crown.

“I'm really fortunate with the clientele I have,” Baffert said. “I think American Pharoah really opened the doors for me. I really started getting really nice horses. Before, I just had to go out and buy my own. Now, I'm getting good horses sent to me. My best horses are the homebreds, and they were bred by Gary and Mary West, Life Is Good and this horse.”

The projected eight-horse Rebel field from the rail out: Caddo River, Florent Geroux to ride, 122 pounds; Big Lake, Ricardo Santana Jr., 117; Hozier, Martin Garcia, 117; Get Her Number, Javier Castellano, 119; Twilight Blue, Brian Hernandez Jr., 119; Keepmeinmind, David Cohen, 119; Concert Tour, Joel Rosario, 117; and Super Stock, Joe Talamo, 117.

The post Baffert: Rebel Stakes Offers ‘Perfect Timing’ For Unbeaten Concert Tour appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Bloodlines Presented By Mill Ridge Farm: Idol Was A Milestone Winner For Top Sire Curlin

Leading sire Curlin (by Smart Strike) picked up another first-time stakes winner over the weekend, and the victory came in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. Idol was making his sixth start, and the Santa Anita Handicap came as the bay colt's third success from six starts, with two seconds and a third, for earnings of $416,464.

The 75th stakes winner by Curlin, Idol was bred in Kentucky by My Meadowview LLC and sold as a yearling for $375,000 at the 2018 Keeneland September yearling sale.

Lincoln Collins, the bloodstock adviser for My Meadowview, said that “Idol was always a strong, good-looking young horse who looked like he would mature into a colt who would thrive at 10 furlongs, and we had great hopes for him.”

The big bay did not immediately, however, prove out those high hopes for his success.

Unraced at two, Idol made his debut last year at Churchill Downs on Sept. 5 as a 3-year-old and finished second going six furlongs. The colt moved up to seven furlongs for his second start, on Sept. 26 at Churchill, and with the help of a swift early pace, he mowed down the opposition to win by 2 1/2 lengths in 1:22.04.

An allowance victory on Nov. 8 at 9.5 furlongs brought a new Churchill Downs track record of 1:55.95 as Idol won off by 5 3/4 lengths as the odds-on favorite at .50-to-1. The colt's three subsequent starts have all been in graded stakes at Santa Anita: the G2 San Antonio (second), G2 San Pasqual (third), and the Santa Anita Handicap.

Not only has Curlin made his name as a sire by producing high-quality performers at more than a mile but also having stock that stay sound and succeed as they mature. Idol has clearly followed the memo.

Collins said, “One of the challenges of breeding a horse like this is that one is treading a fine line between a horse that stays and a horse that is slow. And especially here in the States, a horse that stays has to be very high class; otherwise there's no place for him to race.”

By a two-time Horse of the Year, Idol is the third foal out of the listed stakes winner Marion Ravenwood (A.P. Indy), and he is the mare's first stakes winner, although her second foal, the Midnight Lute colt Ark in the Dark, has current earnings of $193,023.

The mare has an unraced 3-year-old colt by Pioneerof the Nile named Dr Jack. He sold for $250,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale as a weanling, then resold as a 2-year-old in training at the OBS spring sale last year (April sale in June) for $170,000.

Marion Ravenwood herself sold for $400,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November auction when Idol was a weanling. The mare was in foal to Pioneerof the Nile with Dr Jack at the time. In addition to the colt above, the mare's 2019 filly was a full sister to Idol who sold for $350,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September sale.

Last year, Marion Ravenwood produced a colt by Violence and she was bred to City of Light for 2021.

Although Idol missed out on the classics, he comes from a family with a grand classic tradition. The colt traces in the female line to Boudoir, a daughter of English Derby winner Mahmoud. Her most important foals were Your Host (Alibhai, by English Derby winner Hyperion, by wartime English Triple Crown winner Gainsborough). Your Host became the sire of five-time Horse of the Year Kelso, and Your Host's full sister Your Hostess was stakes-placed and became a famous broodmare.

Your Hostess produced four stakes winners, including T.V. Commercial (T.V. Lark), who won 15 of 55 races, including the Arlington-Washington Futurity and the Breeders' Futurity; Gallatia (Gallant Man), who won the Schuylerville Stakes at Saratoga; and Corragioso (Gallant Man), who won the Alcibiades and five other stakes.

More importantly for our story was the fourth foal of Your Hostess: Gay Hostess (Royal Charger). This striking mare produced Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Majestic Prince (Raise a Native), as well as the English highweight juvenile colt Crowned Prince, also by Raise a Native. Their full sister Meadow Blue was the last foal out of Your Hostess and was not raced.

At stud, Meadow Blue produced a stakes winner and a pair of stakes-placed racers. All five of her daughters produced stakes winners. The most immediately important was the Believe It mare Really Blue, who became the dam of champion Real Quiet (Quiet American), winner of the 1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness, 1997 Hollywood Futurity, and the 1999 Pimlico Special and Hollywood Gold Cup.

Meadow Blue's stakes-winning daughter Nureyev's Best (Nureyev) is the third dam of Idol. Her best foal was the G2 stakes winner Andujar (Quiet American), who won the Milady, was third in the G1 Vanity at Hollywood Park and in the G1 Go for Wand at Saratoga. Andujar is the second dam of Idol, and her two stakes winners are Marion Ravenwood (A.P. Indy), dam of the Idol, and Abstraction, by A.P. Indy's high-class son Pulpit and a winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes.

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Great Fillies at Stud

There is no question that world racing will be all the poorer in 2021 without those marvelous mares, Enable (GB) (Nathaniel {Ire}) and Magical (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}). For all of us with a keen interest in breeding, their future careers will be watched with great interest, Enable starting off with a visit to Kingman (GB) and Magical going to Dubawi (Ire).

But how have brilliant racemares fared in their second career down through the years? They are certainly a select bunch with only 42 having attained a Timeform mark of 130 or higher since the 1970s. Predictably, many–just like Enable–have earned their high ranking by winning or going close in Europe's premier middle-distance race, the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. No fewer than 15 among our 42 have won or finished runner up in the Longchamp feature. Dual winners Enable and Treve (Fr) (Motivator {GB}) take pride of place, but they are not the best Arc-winning females in the past 50 years according to Timeform.

The great Allez France (Sea-Bird {Fr})–one of five fillies on our list that raced for Daniel Wildenstein–achieved a rating of 136, two pounds above the 134 of Enable, Treve and All Along (Fr) (Targowice). In fact, only four from the group of 42 have risen higher than 134, the brilliant sprinter Habibti (Ire) (Habitat) matching Allez France's 136, while dual King George heroine Dahlia (Vaguely Noble {Ire}) and brilliant Pebbles (GB) (Sharpen Up {GB}) peaked at 135.

Several fillies, such as Balanchine (Storm Bird), Salsabil (Ire) (Sadler's Wells) and Triptych (Riverman), were talented enough to beat their male counterparts in traditionally male-only Classics such as the Irish Derby and Irish 2000 Guineas. There have also been top milers like triple Breeders' Cup Mile heroine Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa) and even a few 2-year-olds have made the list, with Phoenix S. winner Cloonlara (Sir Ivor), Prix Morny heroine Broadway Dancer (Northern Dancer), plus Cawston's Pride (GB) (Con Brio II {GB}) making it to the exalted 130 mark.

In assessing this group of brilliant fillies as broodmares, along with Enable, we can also discount speedster Marsha (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}) another yet to have runners, while a few more, including Treve and even Danedream (Ger) (Lomitas {GB}), are only at the dawn of their broodmare careers. We are also obliged to leave out two more on account that they never produced any foals. The outstanding Habitat filly, Flying Water (Fr), rated 132 by Timeform after a career that included victories in the 1000 Guineas, Prix Jacques le Marois and Champion S., died in an accident at Belmont Park as a 5-year-old, while Triptych, a sometimes brilliant but always tough daughter of Riverman, lost her life in a paddock accident while carrying her first foal by Mr. Prospector.

That leaves 36–all foaled more than 15 years ago–whose stud records can be examined. This group had a combined 260 runners, an average of 6.5 per mare. This low number is a clue in itself as to how they have fared in their second careers. Some struggled with their fertility while others simply couldn't produce the goods. Given that these were all top-class fillies, their owners might have expected at least a group winner from their prized broodmare prospects. In the event, 20 of the 36 produced at least one group winner. Moreover, the sum total of 38 group winners produced by the 36 mares made up 14.6% of the 260 runners, a pleasing return no doubt.

Less impressive is the fact that only 14 produced a Group 1 winner and only three had more than one Group 1 winner. But the most disappointing aspect of all is that only a single Timeform 130-plus female in the past 50 years of European racing has produced a runner good enough to join the Timeform 130-plus club. That mare was Cawston's Pride, the Champion 2-Year-Old Filly of 1970 and dam of the brilliant Vincent O'Brien-trained sprinter Solinus (GB) (Comedy Star), who set the summer of 1978 alight with consecutive victories in the King's Stand S., July Cup and Nunthorpe S., or William Hill Sprint Championship as it was known then.

Of all the group's produce records, Dahlia's is easily the best. Though none of her foals approached anywhere near her own ability, four won at the highest level with three requiring American turf races to secure their Group 1 status. The brilliant miler Miesque (Nureyev) produced influential sire Kingmambo (Mr. Prospector), a 125-rated three-time Group 1 winner, plus Classic winner East of the Moon (Private Account), who won the French Guineas and Oaks, plus the Jacques le Marois during a rich vein of form as a 3-year-old in 1994.

The only other dam of two or more Group 1 winners in the group was the brilliant sprinter Marwell (Ire) (Timeform 133), one of four 130-plus Habitat fillies on our list. She was responsible for Lomond's daughter Marling (Ire), who scored in the Cheveley Park S., Irish 1000 Guineas, Coronation S. and Sussex S. Meanwhile, Marling's Caerleon half-brother Caerwent (Ire) secured a Group 1 victory in the National S. at The Curragh.

The fact that the 36 top-class European racemares since 1970 collectively managed but a single horse in their own class may seem disappointing, but it's perhaps better to hang on to the 14.6% group winner figure. All the more so when we learn that fillies and mares rated between 125 and 129 by Timeform typically produce 7.2% group winners to runners–an excellent return, but only half the rate of their more-talented peers.

There are numerous examples of brilliant racemares that failed completely at stud. The first five foals produced by Pebbles never even saw a racecourse despite being by the best sires of the day. She ended up with only two minor winners from 11 foals. Indian Skimmer (Storm Bird) was another who failed to fire a shot, her first six foals being unraced, before her last foal won six sprint races over a period of eight years. The brilliant Habibti had only two winners from 12 foals with no sign of class whatsoever. Arc heroines, Ivanjica (Sir Ivor) and Akiyda (GB) (Labus {Fr}) were also bereft of stakes horses, as were Oaks and St Leger winner Dunfermline (GB) (Royal Palace {GB}), King George heroine Pawneese (Ire) (Carvin II {Fr}), April Run (Ire) (Run the Gauntlet), Milligram (GB) (Mill Reef) and Luth Enchantee (Fr) (Be My Guest). Even the great Allez France struggled, her best offspring being Group 3 scorer Action Francaise (Nureyev).

Of course, some made amends for their lackluster produce records and went on to establish good legacies. Pawneese is ancestress of Stradivarius (Ire) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) while Lianga (Dancer's Image)–dam of a single stakes winner–is in the direct female line of important sires Danehill Dancer (Ire) (Danehill) and Street Sense (Street Cry {Ire}), while Milligram has her own vibrant dynasty at Meon Valley Stud with Oaks winner Anapurna (GB) (Frankel {GB}) and Speedy Boarding (GB) (Shamardal) listed among her best descendants.

Of course, this study by design excludes many fine fillies and mares than went on to have great careers at stud. Perhaps the two most worthy of mention are the 126-rated pair Urban Sea (Miswaki) and Detroit (Fr) (Riverman), Arc winners who produced Arc winners. And there is none with a more profound influence on the modern-day breed than Urban Sea.