Robin Goodfellow’s Racing Tips: Best bets for Friday, February 5
Sportsmail's racing expert Robin Goodfellow dishes out his tips for Friday's meetings at Catterick, Chepstow, Newcastle and Lingfield.
Month: February 2021
Special Princess Launches Kentucky Oaks Dreams In Saturday’s Suncoast Stakes
Florida-bred 3-year-old filly Special Princess has spent much of her brief career proving the naysayers wrong. Her next opportunity to confound the experts comes in Saturday's $150,000 Suncoast Stakes, part of a lucrative Festival Preview Day 41 Presented by Lambholm South card at Tampa Bay Downs.
The mile-and-40-yard Suncoast on the main track is the ninth race on a 12-race card beginning at 11:50 a.m. Special Princess, who dead-heated for the victory in the 7-furlong Gasparilla Stakes on Jan. 16 with Adios Trippi, will break from the outside No. 10 post position under jockey Ademar Santos.
Special Princess is owned by her breeder, Jim DiMare's J D Farms, and trained by Walter Woodard. The daughter of Bahamian Squall-Indy Crown, by Shaniko, breezed 3 furlongs Tuesday over the Oldsmar strip in 37 1/5 seconds with Santos aboard.
“We just blew her out a little to keep her on her toes,” said the 58-year-old Woodard, who began training on his own in 1998. “She has enough miles on her and enough bottom that she didn't need to go any farther. She is a very easy filly to train, and she's done everything I've asked her to do.”
The Suncoast Stakes is a “Road to the Kentucky Oaks” race, awarding qualifying points to the first four finishers on a 10-4-2-1 scale for the April 30 Longines Kentucky Oaks. The Suncoast is one of four stakes worth a combined $750,000 in purse money.
Saturday's other stakes, all Grade 3 events, are the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, a “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points race for 3-year-olds going a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the main track; the $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes, for horses 4-years-old-and-upward racing a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf; and the $175,000 Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes, for fillies and mares 4-and-upward at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf.
Just where Special Princess fits into the proceedings will be revealed, but Woodard knows the Suncoast will provide the toughest competition, top to bottom, of her career. She is 8-1 on the morning line, with Gulf Coast, from the barn of Rodolphe Brisset, the 5-2 favorite.
Besides Gulf Coast, who won the Cash Run Stakes on Jan. 1 at Gulfstream Park after finishing second here on Dec. 5 in the Sandpiper Stakes, likely contenders include trainer Ken McPeek's well-regarded Roll Up Mo Money, to be ridden by Samy Camacho; Feeling Mischief, a Michael Campbell-trainee who won the Sandpiper Stakes and was third in the Gasparilla; Il Malocchio, another McPeek charge who won the Victorian Queen Stakes on turf last September at Woodbine; and trainer Eddie Kenneally's Honorifique, second in the Cash Run.
And, that's not even mentioning entrants trained by Hall of Fame members Bill Mott and Mark Casse.
But it's horse racing, and Special Princess might have another surprise in store. The bettors ignored Special Princess in her career debut in August at Gulfstream Park, where she finished third in a nine-horse field at odds of 54-1. She was 24-1 when she broke her maiden on Oct. 28 at Gulfstream Park West. And she was mostly an afterthought in the Gasparilla, going off at 13-1. Adios Trippi appeared to have the race won before Special Princess staged a furious rally on the outside to create the deadlock.
“Saturday is a lot tougher race, because this starts the push toward the Kentucky Oaks,” Woodard said. “But this is what you have to do in life – keep stepping up. I'm confident she can run with this bunch. She wouldn't be there if I didn't think she belonged.
“I know she beat some nice horses (in the Gasparilla). I think she is definitely going to be able to run longer, and that Ademar will be able to settle her on the backside, get her motor revved up and come running. Everybody is going to know she is there, I'm pretty sure,” Woodard said.
The Gasparilla was Woodard's first stakes victory as a trainer. “I'm the small-town guy going in. But I grew up with Mark Casse when I moved to Florida (from Marietta, Ga.) out of high school to work for his father, Norman Casse, at Cardinal Hill Farm (in Ocala).” Woodard said. “I've been around these guys at the sales and big racetracks, and they wake up at 4 a.m. just like I do, so that doesn't bother me.”
Woodard, who also worked at Ocala Stud Farm for about 6 or 7 years before heading to the racetrack in 1998, has a quick reply when asked how he has managed to stay in the profession with only a few dozen victories to show as his on-track accomplishments.
“ 'Cause this is what I do for a living, and it's the greatest game in the world,” he said. “Forget my record. I've been doing this my whole life. I've worked on horse farms, galloped horses, then I got into pinhooking (buying weanlings or yearlings, developing them and selling them for a profit). I've been doing this my whole life, I'm still in the business and I'll be in the business until the end.
“I hustle and work hard, and racing has treated me very well.”
Woodard manages a 12-horse stable at Tampa Bay Downs. On Jan. 16, in the race before the Gasparilla, he sent out another J D Farms-owned 3-year-old filly, Peaceful Way, to win a maiden claiming event with Santos aboard. Peaceful Way is entered in Friday's first race.
From sheer, unadulterated joy to the mountaintop. So what if he had to share the view?
“Special Princess is probably the best horse I've trained,” Woodard said. “She makes my job real simple. I'm just fortunate to get to train her.”
The post Special Princess Launches Kentucky Oaks Dreams In Saturday’s Suncoast Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
Trio Of Turf Sprints Highlight Friday’s Stronach 5 Wager
Races from Gulfstream Park, Laurel Park, Santa Anita Park and Golden Gate Fields, including three turf sprints, will highlight Friday's Stronach 5.
The popular wager with an industry-low 12-percent takeout will begin with Gulfstream's seventh race at 4:15 ET.
A dozen 4-year-olds and up have entered the five-furlong turf sprint for claimers to kick off the Stronach 5. Raymond Murphy's French Reef, the 3-1 favorite, enters off a troubled trip last time out for trainer Rohan Crichton. Ron Paolucci Racing, LLC's Going for Gold draws the 12 post and drops from allowance company.
Laurel's ninth race will serve as the second leg of the Stronach 5. A claiming event at 6 ½ furlongs for non-winner of three lifetime has a 2-1 favorite in Pascal Chant for Dale Capuano and a 5-2 choice in Extra Medium for leading trainer Claudio Gonzalez.
Santa Anita's third race, the third leg of the sequence, is a wide-open, $50,000 maiden claiming event for 3-year-olds at five furlongs on the turf. The morning-line favorites are Amanofmystature (5-2), Cross Indian (7-2) and Soulong (4-1). Peter Miller trains Amanofmystature, a gelded son of Into Mischief, and Soulong, a son of Perfect Soul. Cross Indian returns from a seven-month layoff after finishing second by a nose in maiden special weight company at Del Mar.
Golden Gate's third race, a maiden special weight event for California-bred 3-year-olds, will serve as the fourth leg of the sequence. The mile event has a 2-1 favorite in Tribal Nation, coming off two second-place finishes at Golden Gate and Los Alamitos.
The Stronach 5 wraps up at Gulfstream with a five-furlong turf event for 3-year-olds with a $25,000 maiden tag. It's a wide-open finale with Supplication a 3-1 favorite dropping in company for trainer Mark Casse. George Weaver will saddle a first-time starter in Gael Power, a son of Soldat to be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. has been named on 6-1 shot Congrats Again for trainer Michael Yates.
Friday's races and sequence
· Leg One – Gulfstream Park 7th Race: (12 entries, 5 furlongs turf) 4:15 ET, 1:15 PT
· Leg Two –Laurel Park 9th Race: (9 entries, 6 ½ furlongs) 4:29 ET, 1:29 PT
· Leg Three –Santa Anita Park 3rd Race: (10 entries, 6 furlongs turf) 4:35 ET, 1:35 PT
· Leg Four –Golden Gate Fields 3rd Race: (7 entries, 1 mile) 4:53 ET, 1:53 PT
· Leg Five –Gulfstream West 9th Race: (8 entries, 5 furlongs turf) 5:17 ET, 2:17 PT
Fans can watch and wager on the action at 1/ST.COM/BET as well as stream all the action in English and Spanish at LaurelPark.com, SantaAnita.com, GulfstreamPark.com, and GoldenGateFields.com.
The Stronach 5 In the Money podcast, hosted by Jonathan Kinchen and Peter Thomas Fornatale, will be posted by 2 p.m. Thursday at InTheMoneyPodcast.com and will be available on iTunes and other major podcast distributors
The minimum wager on the multi-race, multi-track Stronach 5 is $1. If there are no tickets with five winners, the entire pool will be carried over to the next Friday.
If a change in racing surface is made after the wagering closes, each selection on any ticket will be considered a winning selection. If a betting interest is scratched, that selection will be substituted with the favorite in the win pool when wagering closes.
The Maryland Jockey Club serves as host of the Stronach 5.
The post Trio Of Turf Sprints Highlight Friday’s Stronach 5 Wager appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
Equibase Analysis: Mott Holding A Pair Of Aces In Sam F. Davis
This Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes is the local prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby four weeks from today and brings together a field of 12 (plus one also-eligible) attempting to become one of the betting favorites going into that race as well as to earn points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.”
Only five of the 13 have ever run in stakes races. Of those, Nova Rags is one of two which are stakes winners, having won the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last month around one turn, not the two-turn trip like the Sam F. Davis. Boca Boy is another with a stakes win, that coming last September in the In Reality Stakes. He is returning from a four and one-half month layoff since that race.
Smiley Sobotka finished second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall around two-turns but is returning to the races following more than two months off and facing many who have run more recently. Known Agenda finished third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last December and is yet another coming into the race off a layoff. Runway Magic finished third in the Limehouse Stakes last month at Gulfstream Park, a one-turn race and rounds out those which have competed in stakes before today.
Then there is a trio of recent winners on dirt who could step up to the task. This trio includes local winner Ricochet, impressive nine length winner Candy Man Rocket and Hidden Stash, who is another coming back from more than three months off. Millean won his most recent race last month but in a maiden claiming race so appears a bit overmatched. Joe Man Joe and Lucky Law finished second and first, respectively, in their most recent starts. Both were around two-turns but were on turf so it remains to be seen if they can transfer that form to dirt and improve to be competitive in a stakes as well. Last Investment and also-eligible Tiz Tact Toe round out the field as horses who have yet to break their maidens in seven combined starts.
Candy Man Rocket gets slight preference among three main win contenders in this year's Sam F. Davis Stakes, although he has never raced around two turns and has only a maiden win to his credit. I think this colt has tremendous upside based on earning a field high 98 Equibase Speed Figure in his nine length maiden win last month sprinting at Gulfstream Park. Considering this will be only his third career start, Candy Man Rocket has every right to continue to improve and that means his opponents would have to improve doubly in order to beat him even if he simply repeats the effort. There is little doubt Candy Man Rocket can do just that around two-turns as a son of Candy Ride, whose has had 12 of his 34 foals win stakes races for three year olds over the last five years. Some of those are big names such as Vekoma and Gun Runner. Then there's the prowess his Hall-of-Fame trainer has in recognizing talent. Over the last five years, when trainer Bill Mott raises a horse off a maiden win to a stakes race, his charges have finished first or second in 10 of 20 tries. All those factors lead me to believe Candy Man Rocket can pull off the upset in this race.
Mott also saddles Nova Rags, one of just two stakes winners in the field. Nova Rags returned from two months off last month and won the Pasco Stakes at seven furlongs. Although the 85 is well behind the 98 figure his stablemate earned one week earlier, Nova Rags has every right to improve second off the layoff and around two turns. Sired by 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, Nova Rags is out of the Smart Strike mare Wishful Splendor, whose sons and daughters have won 17 of 73 dirt route races, including 2011 Indiana Oaks winner Juanita. To be ridden by Tampa Bay Downs leading jockey Sammy Camacho, Nova Rags can take a big step forward in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and toss his name into the ring as a top three year old on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Ricochet is a two-turn winner at Tampa, a claim none of the other 12 horses in this race can make. Stretched out to two-turns for the first time at the end of November, Ricochet opened up by two and one-half lengths in the stretch only to be nailed right on the wire by a head. Improving to a career-best 94 figure which is the second best in the field by far, Ricochet made short work of the field in December when winning by eight lengths. On a pattern for another step forward, if Candy Man Rocket does not improve as expected, Ricochet would be no surprise winning this race.
After that group of three, there are four more which deserve honorable mention – Hidden Stash, Known Agenda, Lucky Law and Smiley Sobotka, each having good reasons to consider them as contenders but each also with slight question marks. Hidden Stash improved to a career best 89 figure when last seen at the end of November, bringing his record around two-turns to a perfect two-for-two. However, coming back from two months off he would need to be in tip-top shape to pick up where he left off. Known Agenda won a nine furlong race in November, the second start of his career, earning an 86 figure in the process. He improved to 88 although a well-beaten third in the Remsen Stakes in December and if this was his second start off a layoff, not his first, I think he would be a top contender. Similarly, Smiley Sobotka improved nicely in his first route and second career start in October to win then finished second of nine in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (with a 90 figure) after opening up by a couple of lengths with an eighth of a mile to go. He's been working fast but there is always the concern about needing a race before running well enough to win around two turns off a layoff. Lucky Law stretched out to two turns off a runner-up effort and won nicely last month. Both races were on turf so he would need to transfer that form to dirt and improve off the 83 figure earned in that last start. However, trainer Patrick Biancone successfully transitioned horses to dirt on the Road to the Derby last year with both Ete Indien and Sole Volante.
The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Boca Boy (78), Joe Man Joe (89), Millean (84), Last Investment (81), Tiz Tact Toe (78) and Runway Magic (92).
Win Contenders, in probability order:
Candy Man Rocket
Nova Rags
Ricochet
The post Equibase Analysis: Mott Holding A Pair Of Aces In Sam F. Davis appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
