Fasig-Tipton Winter Mixed Sale Starts Monday

The Fasig-Tipton Winter Mixed Sale, ideally positioned just ahead of next week's start of the breeding season, opens for its two-day run Monday morning at Newtown Paddocks. Hips one through 324, a collection of racing and breeding prospects and short yearlings, will be offered Monday and will be followed Tuesday by hips 325 through 673. Bidding begins each day at 10 a.m.

“I've always really liked this sale because of its timing,” said consignor Zach Madden, whose Buckland Sales brings a 13-horse consignment into the auction. “There is a little bit of an urgency, a little bit of a, 'Hey this is my last chance to pick up a mare to breed something this year.' I definitely think there is an urgency to get stuff done.”

Brendan Gallagher, whose Frankfort Park Farm has a 10-horse offering at the sale, agreed.

“It's the last opportunity to invest before the stud season for people that want to buy mares to breed to certain stallions and shareholders,” Gallagher said. “It's always been a decent sale for quality. So that's going to be the same old story.”

But consignors are still expecting to see the common polarization in the marketplace, with high demand for the perceived quality offerings and lesser demand at lower ends of the market.

“We have a mare in foal to Street Sense who will make money and we have a lovely Nyquist filly who will make money and then some of the rest of them might be just a bit more difficult,” Gallagher said. “But the good ones will sell well, which I suppose we can live with. The day when we have the good horses and we don't have trade, well then we're all in trouble. So that's the way it is and it's going to be the same.”

The Winter Mixed sale is the third major auction of the year, following the Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale and the Ocala Breeders' Sales Company's Winter Mixed Sale. Both of those previous sales proved there is still demand in the marketplace which has shown its resiliency as buyers and sellers  adjust to the new normal in the wake of the global pandemic.

“I would just say from looking at the other sales that the good individuals will still sell well,” said Ron Blake, whose Blake-Albina Thoroughbred Services has 19 horses on offer at Fasig-Tipton this week. “I think there is probably less demand for horses that are not at that top level. Of course that's the way it's been for a while, but during the pandemic, I think it's even more stressed. If you make it into that top 10% or 20% of the horses, you can still get very good money, but if you fall below that, it can be a crap shoot depending on how far below that you fall. I think if you still have a good horse, there is plenty of money for it.”

Despite the swirling uncertainties caused by the ongoing pandemic, Madden and Gallagher both see reasons to be optimistic about the state of the market.

“I had friends and clients that sold at OBS, and obviously we were over at Keeneland in January, and the good news, I think, is you really didn't have that doom and gloom and people with their chins down,” Madden said. “It seemed like when we were first getting the sales back going, people were just wondering what was happening. But people know the reality now. So I feel like that whole doom-and-gloom aspect is out of it. And at the end of the day, most of us are eternal optimists. I do think people still want quality and they are very tough on vetting and all of that other stuff, but I just feel like the worst–knock on wood–is over. We are all battle tested now, so while we still have things to overcome, I think we can still see the light at the end of the tunnel.”

With Gulfstream Park and Sam Houston Race Park among the most recent tracks to announce record handle figures, Gallagher thinks demand for racehorses will only get higher.

“I know the number of foals being bred is reducing and I know that the margins for the breeders–the market for foals is down 27% or something since 2017 and that's a hard nut to crack–but in saying that, the handle at racecourses is going up–we had another record handle there last week with the [GIII] Holy Bull [S. at Gulfstream]. So racing as a sport stands out even a bit at the moment, so if the handle is going up it will have to turn around. And if you have a smaller market because the numbers are going down, I believe that it will come back. I honestly believe that. Demand will go up.”

He continued, “We sell a lot of foals, we'll foal 43 here this year, so for us with that 27% drop since 2017, that's a tough one for a farm like ours. If I was hearing that betting was going down or that people weren't interested in racing anymore, then it might be time to do something else. But at the moment, you have to be upbeat about it because I think it's got to come back.”

Comparing the uncertainties of the 2020/2021 market to the crash of 2008 and its aftermath, Gallagher thinks the top of the market will remain strong.

“The difference from 12 years ago, with the market, the wealthy people took a real hammering,” he said. “I don't think that's happened with the pandemic this time, in general. Yes there is fear there, but it's not as if the bottom has fallen out of financial markets in the world. It hasn't. The top is still there.”

During the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Winter Mixed Sale, 368 horses sold for $9,777,100. The average was $26,568 and the median was $8,500. The buy-back rate was 24.9%.

Twin Creeks Farm purchased the top-priced lot in 2020, going to $570,000 to acquire the broodmare prospect Remedy (Creative Cause), who was one of six to sell for $200,000 or more at the sale.

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Monday’s Racing Insights: Seven-Figure Colt Debuts at Big A

Sponsored by Alex Nichols Agency

1st-AQU, $80K, Msw, 3yo, 7f, 1:20 p.m. ET
Jonathan Thomas sends out $1-million Fasig-Tipton Saratoga grad Will E Sutton (Curlin) for Robert V. LaPenta, Stonestreet Stables and Bridlewood Farm on this card that was pushed back a day due to winter weather. The daughter of debut winner and  stakes-placed juvenile Yes Liz (Yes It's True) sports an upbeat tab over the Belmont training track. TJCIS PPs

 

 

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The Election May Be Over, but Steve Kornacki Not Done Analyzing Races

This Saturday, Steve Kornacki, a national political correspondent for NBC News, will compile and study reams of data and make informed decisions. But he won't be trying to figure out if the numbers say that Joe Biden Jr. will beat Donald Trump in Pennsylvania or anything else politically related. His main concern will be who is going to win the feature at Gulfstream Park.

Kornacki is well known to NBC and MSNBC viewers and political junkies. For hours before and after each election, stationed in front of an electoral map, he's the one making sense of the numbers, trends and voting patterns. Able to continue on for days at a time without sleep, Kornacki has been called a national treasure. That doesn't leave Kornacki with a lot of free time, but he still manages to carve out a few hours every weekend to enjoy one of his favorite hobbies, betting the races. He normally has Saturdays off, so that's when he takes a deep dive into the past performances and bets on the major tracks running that day.

Like many, Kornacki, 41, was introduced to racing by a relative. He had an uncle who owned a business in Maine and would take his young nephew to the harness races at Scarborough Downs.

“I was pretty young when I got into it,” he said. “My uncle owns a beach store in Southern Maine and when I was six or seven years old, he took me one night during the summer to Scarborough Downs. This was the late eighties, so there was no simulcasting or anything. It was just the trotters. I picked five straight winners that night. He still talks about that and he didn't bet any of them. I don't think I've had a night like that since.”

It was that same uncle who taught him a system, the 13 system. Kornacki acknowledges that it may be a silly way to play the races, but he still incorporates it into his handicapping.

“It might be the stupidest system you've ever heard of, but we swear by it,” he said. “It's called the 13 system. My uncle got it from a guy who was a jockey agent back at Suffolk Downs in the sixties. It's very simple. The last three finishes, if they add up to a 13 you bet the horse. It's the first thing I look for now when I get a program. I go through every race and circle them. Last Saturday at Aqueduct, in the second to last race, the winner was 19-1 and he was a 13 horse. It forces you to take a horse you otherwise would never take. When they come in, you can hit a big payout.”

Kornacki grew up in Groton, Massachusetts, a short distance from Suffolk Downs and Rockingham Park, and would spend many a day or night at those tracks while in high school or later at college at Boston University. Starting with Alysheba in 1987, he began following the Triple Crown races closely every year.

Someone with an analytical mind, he's moved on from picking names and numbers and relying solely on the 13 system. Kornacki enjoys trying to solve the handicapping puzzle and though he says he's not very good at it, there have been some memorable hits along the way.

“The biggest payout I ever got when I really handicapped a race would have been the 2002 Pacific Classic,” he said. “My horse was Came Home. War Emblem was running and all the money was on War Emblem. I believed in Came Home, loaded up on him, and he won.”

Politics and horse racing don't exactly go together, but Kornacki finds that he often uses racing terms when analyzing an election. With 90% of the precincts reporting, Kornacki might say that election is coming “down the stretch.” On the night of the New Hampshire primary, he mentioned Rockingham Park when going over the vote totals for Rockingham County.

“What everybody seems to notice is when I use the terminology,” he said. “Unconsciously, I use so much of the language of horse racing because it applies to a political race and to election returns. I've definitely done that a lot on the air.”

From time to time, he gets to talk actual racing. A few years ago, he was hosting a show on MSNBC on the night before the GI Kentucky Derby and the subject turned to the race.

“I was sitting in for Brian Williams and we did a Kentucky Derby preview,” Kornacki said. “I told them at the outset that my track record was not that impressive. They ran a banner at the bottom of the screen that said 'Steve is really bad at picking horses.' I definitely didn't have the winner.”

After the 2020 election, NBC decided to let Kornacki branch out and he was used on NFL broadcasts. Using the same style he uses for political races, Kornacki broke down the NFL playoff picture.

“I loved doing that,” he said. “I was so psyched to get that opportunity. I am an NFL fan, so I didn't think, in terms of the subject that it would be a reach for me. My concern when they first reached out to me was that I didn't want it to become gimmicky. We did playoff probabilities, which was the perfect way in. The minute we put the graphics together I could see that it was a logical extension of what I've been doing. I hope it didn't come across as a gimmick at all because it was real information and the spotting of trends.”

With NBC having the rights to the Triple Crown races and the Breeders' Cup, perhaps there is a way to include Kornacki and what he does on racing broadcasts. He's not quite sure how that would work, but says if it ever came up he would be interested., even if he's not the best handicapper out there.

“From my standpoint, I'd love to see if there is something possible with the racing shows,” he said. “They have Eddie O (Olczyk) to do the handicapping. My friends and family have said don't let them talk you into doing the handicapping because you'll embarrass yourself. That's probably right. So we probably will have to come up with something else for me to do.”

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