Month: February 2021

A field of 10 is entered to run in Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes, a one mile turf test for fillies and mares at Santa Anita Park. Many of them are quite accomplished, including winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks last summer, Red Lark (IRE), who most recently finished fourth in the Grade 1 American Oaks following two and one-half months off.

Mucho Unusual enters the Buena Vista Stakes off wins in the Grade 3 Robert J. Frankel Stakes and the Grade 3 Megahertz Stakes and won the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive Stakes over the course last summer. Going to Vegas, who finished second in the American Oaks, and Sedamar, who finished second in the Megahertz, are both trying to move up a notch into the winner's circle in this grade 2 event.

Warren's Showtime was victorious in the similar Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes at a mile over the Santa Anita turf last October and is yet another with a serious chance at success. Nasty enters the race off a win over the course at the distance in the Lady Shamrock Stakes in December and was close at hand behind Warren's Showtime in the Autumn Miss two races prior to that so adds to the depth of the entrants in this race.

Charmaine's Mia just won the Grade 3 Las Cienegas Stakes at six furlongs and is stretching out to this distance and to two turns for the first time in a stakes. Sloane Garden (GB) won a pair of stakes on grass last spring and summer at Golden Gate Fields including the Luther Burbank Stakes and returns from four months on the bench so could need a race before being competitive against this field. Bohemian Bourbon showed she belongs at the level when third in the Grade 2 Royal North Stakes last summer but her recent fifth place effort in the Las Cienegas following three months off may indicate she's not yet back in top form. Heather's Grey moves into stakes company off a sixth place effort in a sprint and may be overmatched.

Red Lark (IRE) has won only two times in 14 career starts including nine since importing to North America 13 months ago in January, 2020. After moving to turf in her second stateside start and winning, Red Lark (IRE) lost four races in a row, although she was competitive and never worse than fourth in any of those races. Then last summer came a breakout performance in the Del Mar Oaks with a visually impressive stretch run and upset at 19 to 1 odds. That effort yielded a career best 109 Equibase Speed Figure. Sent to Keeneland to run in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, Red Lark (IRE) ran creditably against some of the top turf fillies in the country, ending up fourth and improving to a 111 figure.

Rested two and one-half months and returning at a distance she had never run previously, one mile and one-quarter, Red Lark (IRE) rallied from ninth of 10 to get fourth at the end in the American Oaks and was only beaten a nose for third and less than a length for second. The 104 figure earned in the American Oaks was pretty good considering the layoff and distance. Cutting back to one mile for the Buena Vista, it must be noted Mucho Unusual finished second in the 2019 American Oaks before a big effort when third to multiple stakes winners (Keeper of the Stars and Jolie Olympica) in the 2020 Buena Vista. As such, Red Lark should improve considerably in her second start off a layoff and appears to be the one to beat in this race.

Nasty is a lightly raced, newly turned four year old filly, who has won three of six races on grass to date in her career. The first of the trio was a rousing eight length win last June in her turf debut at Indiana Grand and another win one month later. Following a poor effort in August, Nasty was shipped to California and to the barn of Richard Baltas and she nearly won the Autumn Miss Stakes as she made the lead with an eighth of a mile to go and was beaten a neck and a half-length on the wire off a two month layoff, earning a career-best 104 figure. After a poor effort one race before last, Nasty rebounded in the Lady Shamrock Stakes at the distance of the Buena Vista at the end of December. In that race Nasty duplicated the 104 figure she earned two races earlier while setting a strong pace and holding on gamely over Counterparty Risk, who flattered her when winning the Endeavour Stakes two weeks ago in Florida. The race also produced another next out winner and a near winner so it turns out to be a “KEY RACE” from which Nasty has potential to improve upon and win again.

Mucho Unusual has four wins in eight career tries at this mile turf trip. The most recent of those came just last month in the Megahertz Stakes, her fifth career win in nine races on the Santa Anita turf course she's shown a fondness for. Although the Megahertz effort only resulted in an 88 figure, Mucho Unusual has run well enough to be competitive with Red Lark (IRE) and Nasty if they repeat or improve upon their best efforts. One of those efforts which would make Mucho Unusual a strong contender in this year's Buena Vista came when she earned a career-best 110 figure when third, beaten just one length, in last year's Buena Vista. Mucho Unusual ran similarly well when taking the Rodeo Drive Stakes last September with a 107 figure and then two races later when winning the Robert J. Frankel Stakes with the same 107 figure. Given that strong record of success at the distance and currently in the best form of her career, Mucho Unusual has every right to succeed in this year's Buena Vista Stakes.

The rest of the Buena Vista Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Bohemian Bourbon (101), Charmaine's Mia (115 sprinting), Going to Vegas (108), Heather's Grey (105), Sedamar (109), Sloane Garden (GB) (99) and Warren's Showtime (107).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Red Lark (IRE)
Nasty
Mucho Unusual

Buena Vista Stakes – Grade 2
Race 7 at Santa Anita
Saturday, February 20, 2021 – Post Time 6:30 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Red Lark Appears The One To Beat In Buena Vista appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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