January, 2021 | Horse Racing Free Tips

What’s in a Name: Motherly Instincts, Little Gems of Wordplay from Mamas’ Names

BLACK MAGIC WOMAN, 1-7-21 winner at Gulfstream. Dam: DAZZLING SONG. BLACK MAGIC WOMAN is a 1968 song which became a world-famous hit in a 1970 Santana arrangement, even if it was a Fleetwood Mac number originally. 6th-Gulfstream, $40,000, Msw, 1-7, 4yo/up, f/m, 1m, 1:36.42, ft, 3 3/4 lengths. BLACK MAGIC WOMAN (f, 4, Uncle Mo–Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song). Lifetime Record: 4-1-0-2, $41,360. O-Bass Stables, LLC; B-Ramona S. Bass, LLC (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher.

HYPOTHETICAL, 1-7-21 winner at Meydan. Dam: PEUT ETRE, French for ‘perhaps’, ‘probably’ (literally: ‘it may be,’ without the necessary pronoun, which makes it an adverb). 5th-Meydan, Hcp., AED105,000, NH/SH 4yo/up, 1600m, 1:38.03, ft. HYPOTHETICAL (IRE) (c, 4, Lope de Vega {Ire}–Peut Etre {Ire} {GSP-Fr}, by Whipper) Sales history: 550,000gns Ylg >18 TATOCT. Lifetime Record: 5-2-0-0, $33,277. O-Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohd Al Maktoum. B-Knocktoran Stud (Ire). T-Salem bin Ghadayer.

SCALES OF JUSTICE, 1-9-2021 winner at Turfway. Dam: BALANCE. Fairness has its roots in equilibrium and symmetry, from times immemorable. 5th-Turfway, $31,190, Msw, 1-8, 3yo, 1m (AWT), 1:39.09, ft, 1/2 length. SCALES OF JUSTICE (c, 3, Uncle Mo–Balance {MGISW, $1,048,491}, by Thunder Gulch). Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $20,340. O-Andrew Warren & William K. Warren, Jr.; B-Cloros Bloodstock (KY); T-Michael W. McCarthy.

BRASSY, 1-9-2021 winner at Tampa Bay Downs. Dam: CHEEKY CHARM. Connection believed to be self-evident, as it is said of some truths. 8th-Tampa Bay Downs, $21,500, Alw, 1-9, (NW1X), 4yo/up, f/m, 1mT, 1:37.05, fm, nose. BRASSY (f, 4, Medaglia d’Oro–Cheeky Charm, by A.P. Indy). Lifetime Record: 5-2-0-0, $48,286. O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Eoin G. Harty.

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Leading North American Breeders For 2020: A Different Take

Last week, The Jockey Club released its list of leading North American Thoroughbred breeders for 2020, proclaiming Calumet Farm as the top breeder for the second year in a row.

Sure enough, the historic Lexington, Ky., farm owned since 2012 by reclusive billionaire Brad Kelley was atop the list of individual breeders with more than $9.7 million in 2020 North American earnings by horses it bred. If you take partnerships into account, Kenny Troutt's WinStar Farm in Versailles, Ky. – second behind Calumet on the individual list – was the North American leader with $11.7 million in earnings.

I don't judge the quality of restaurants or decide where to eat by looking at who generates the most revenue. If I did, I'd wind up at McDonald's three meals a day. So it stands to reason that there must be another way to look at this year-end list, which includes statistics for the top 100 breeders by North American earnings. The data includes starters, starts, wins, seconds, thirds, earnings and black type stakes winners.

I took the liberty of adding a few statistical columns that provide some context to the leading breeders list, including average number of starts per starter, percentage of wins from starts, average earnings per start and percentage of black type winners from starters.

The list below (which excluded a handful of breeders with fewer than five starters each) ranks North American breeders by average earnings per start. Topping the list in this category is Knowles Bloodstock ($55,847 per start), which had just six starters but included Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Wells Bayou among them. Second is Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, whose $22,705 average was buoyed considerably by the $7,170,000 earned by probable Horse of the Year Authentic.

Ranked 74th on the list of leading breeders by average earnings per start is Calumet Farm, whose 479 runners averaged $3,776 per start. WinStar Farm, with 214 starters, ranks 19th nationally with $8,122 earnings per start – more than twice that of Calumet.

Another way of looking at excellence in breeding is black type winners. Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin and Barbara Banke's Stonestreet led the way with each breeding 13 North American stakes winners. WinStar and Calumet were next with 10 each.

If you look at the list by percentage of black type winners from starters (minimum five starters), Knowles Bloodstock again leads the way with 33.33% (2-of-6), followed by China Horse Club International Ltd, with 16.67% (4-of-24).

Stonestreet ranks ninth by percentage of stakes winners from starters, at 8.55%, with Godolphin 12th at 8.02%. WinStar Farm is 33rd at 4.67% and Calumet Farm is 62nd at 2.09%.

So who was the top North American breeder in 2020? If you go by quantity, it's Calumet, which had 75% more starters than runner-up WinStar Farm. In my opinion, quality trumps quantity.

Category leaders listed in bold/italics.

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Keeneland January Sale Starts Monday

The Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale begins its four-day run Monday morning, with bidding slated to commence at 10 a.m. The auction, which includes the dispersals of the historic Sam-Son Farm, the late Paul Pompa, Jr., and Spry Family Farm, features a catalogue of 1,608 broodmares and broodmare prospects, newly turned yearlings, horses of racing age and stallions or stallion prospects.

Despite swirling uncertainties caused by the global pandemic, the market proved resilient and surprisingly deep when Keeneland staged its September Yearling Sale and November Breeding Stock Sale last fall. Sales officials look for those trends continue into the January marketplace.

“I think the November sale was similar to the September market,” said Keeneland’s Director of Sales Operations Geoffrey Russell. “In September, we were very apprehensive going into the second week about where we were going to be and it worked out very well. And it was the same in the November sale. We were worried about the middle and lower-end markets and they stood up very well. We hope all that continues on in January.”

The three dispersals in the January catalogue figure to increase interest in the auction.

“I think it will be a slightly different January sale as we’ve got three very nice dispersals in here,” Russell said. “Obviously, we’d prefer they weren’t dispersing, but if they had to, we are glad they are doing it with us.”

The Sam-Son Farm dispersal features 21 in-foal broodmares, all of whom were paraded before prospective buyers Saturday morning at Keeneland.

The dispersal of the late Paul Pompa, which is being handled by the Lane’s End consignment, includes 39 broodmares, yearlings, broodmare and stallion prospects and horses of racing age. The dispersal continued to generate updates as sale time approached, with homebred Carillo (Union Rags) tabbed a ‘TDN Rising Star’ with a debut win at Aqueduct Friday. Both the sophomore (hip 1556) and his dam, Proper Mad (Bernardini) (hip 793), will be offered at Keeneland this week.

The Spry dispersal with Hill ‘n’ Dale Sales Agency, agent, cataloged 46 broodmares and broodmare prospects, yearlings and racing prospects.

“The Sam-Son horses had a nice show this morning and the Pompa horses seem to be doing very well on the racetrack,” said Russell. “So that is all very positive. Quality dispersals, as these are, bring in more people.”

The January sale will be the third auction at which Keeneland will offer buyers the opportunity to bid on-line. It is an option, first necessitated by the coronavirus pandemic and ensuing travel restrictions, which continues to grow in popularity.

“We have the same system set up and we expect it to continue to be very popular,” Keeneland President Shannon Arvin said of the internet bidding. “It opens up a lot of doors.”

Russell added, “I think, of all the things we have done because of COVID, I think the internet bidding is definitely something that is here to stay. I think as each sale has gone on–not just ours, but at other sales companies, as well–I think buyers are getting more comfortable with it.”

The Keeneland January sale continues through Thursday with each session beginning at 10 a.m.

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Miller: Sidelined Mo Forza ‘Doing Really Well,’ Eyes Return In 60 Days

Mo Forza, who missed the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile at Keeneland last Nov. 7 due to “a minor setback,” is recovering and expected to resume his racing career, trainer Peter Miller reports.

“He's doing really well,” said Miller, who enjoys singular success utilizing serene surroundings at the Bonsall training facility San Luis Rey Downs in California's San Diego County. “He looks fantastic and we'll probably bring him back in another 60 days or so.”

Mo Forza, a 5-year-old son of Uncle Mo, had won six of his last seven starts including the G2 City of Hope Mile on grass at Santa Anita last Oct. 3 and Del Mar's G1 Hollywood Derby on Nov. 30, 2019.

He was bred in Kentucky by the late Barry Abrams, who also owned a share of the bay with Onofrio Pecoraro. He races as OG Boss; Abrams campaigned as Bardy Farm.

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