Casino Games History Or How People Have Learnt To Count Cards Part1.

The dream of capoting a casino is as old as the notion “casino” itself. Every gambler wants to win. Every other invents his own “system”. Every hundredth attempts to carefully analyze the game. And only the few of millions succeed.

The most famous achievement in the sphere of “system” game against the casino was the so called “card counting” at blackjack – mathematically based methods of game allowing to get some advantage over the casino. The casinos, surely, knows about the existence of “counters” and are trying to oppose them – from changing the rules to banning the game. Sometimes even exceeding the limits of reason and legality. In fact, all the history of the blackjack is the struggle between the gamblers and the casino which is more clever.

More than half a century passed since the first attempts of beating the casinos in blackjack, based not on the marked cards and intuition. There has been a peck of salt eaten since then, but the struggle is still going on…

Mammoth.
Probably the first person in history who applied mathematic analysis to the game blackjack was Jess Marcum (originally Marcovitch) was born on 30th December 1919.

It happened at the turn of 1949 and 1950, when Jess, being an excellent mathematician and physicist-theorist got to Las Vegas. Then his mathematic flair prompted him that most possibly not everything depends on intuition in blackjack.

Marcum started analyzing blackjack. First, the uniqueness of his attempt is that he performed absolutely all calculations with his pen on the paper, on principle without using any technologies whatever weak they might be at that time. Second he had found the solution!

Jess manually developed what is now called basic strategy and counting systems ten years before someone else has done that. He counted that theoretically he had an advantage over the casino of about 3% – under the conditions of that time it was quite real. Moreover, Markum had been playing blackjack in all known to him casinos- both in the USA and abroad. His name appeared on the pages of the newspapers as an example of “lucky man” who managed to hit the jackpot.

Jess Markum also went down to history as probably the first man thrown out from the casino because of cards. Though at that time casinos did not understand that such system existed. Jess lived in Las Vegas for about a year. The casino owners exchanged the information when they gathered at the general meeting. And they were terrified. After that Markum was not admitted at all Vegas casinos. He went to Reno. The same story- in half a year after unbelievable “luck” the casino owners started making inquiries about the incredible gambler. Then other states and cities. Then Cuba, the Bahamas. Nobody knows how much money he has won during that time. One thing is known for sure- in fact, Jess Markum started the war between the gamblers and casinos in blackjack, that is still going on and getting more and more strained.

He did not share his calculations with anyone, and completely gave up playing against casino after a wide public publication of blackjack methods by other authors.
Jess Markum died in 1992, at the age of 72.

The four of Neanderthals.
The next effort of great influence on the blackjack math was made in 1956 by the group of four mathematicians- Roger Baldwin, Wilbert E. Cantey, Herbert Maisel and James McDermott.

These people had never played in casino before, having spent a great number of m/hr, they created basic strategy of playing blackjack according to the most popular at that time rules and published it together with the calculation methods in the specialized math journal for statisticians – Journal of the American Statistical Association entitled “The Optimum Strategy In Blackjack”.

They made several slight mistakes in calculations which is nothing serious taking into account their enormous contribution. A year later they issued a small book Playing Blackjack to Win, which is now a bibliography rarity.

In fact their book and the article did not spark much furor, and remained almost without attention regardless of their innovative approach. However, the word almost turned out to be the key for all the gambling industry, as someone did paid close attention to the research of the excellent four.

Graded Stakes Double Propels Emisael Jaramillo To Jockey Of The Week Honors

A Gulfstream Park graded stakes double helped propel Emisael Jaramillo to Jockey of the Week honors for the week of Dec. 7 through Dec. 13. The award, which is voted on by a panel of racing experts, is for jockeys who are members of the Jockeys' Guild, the organization which represents more than 950 active riders in the United States as well as retired and permanently disabled jockeys.

Jaramillo won both stakes in which he was entered on Saturday, Dec. 12 at Gulfstream Park. First, he was aboard Letruska for trainer Fausto Gutierrez in the Grade 3 Rampart Stakes. Racing without blinkers for the first time in her career and favored at 3-2 in the field of six, Letruska completed the one mile in 1:35.03 over a fast main track. He returned later in the card to win the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl with Lady's Island who ran six furlongs in 1:10.46 for trainer Georgina Baxter.

This past May, Jaramillo registered his 1,000th victory in North America. The 43-year-old Venezuelan rode more than 4,000 winners in his native country, where he was a 13-time champion and all-time leading rider. He rode his first professional race in 1996 and the next year was competing at his country's premier racetrack, La Rinconada in Caracas where he won his first title in 1999. He has ridden more than 200 winners in each of the last five years primarily at Gulfstream Park and Gulfstream Park West where he has been a mainstay since moving his tack to south Florida in 2015.

Weekly stats for Jaramillo were 30-3-4-3 with total purse earnings of $187,800.

Jaramillo out-polled fellow riders Adam Beschizza who won two stakes races at Fair Grounds, Kendrick Carmouche who won the Bay Ridge Stakes at Aqueduct, Marcelino Pedroza who won two stakes races at Fair Grounds and Tim Thornton who topped all riders in wins with 11.

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Quality Across Tinnakill Draft

In an industry that involves cycles of frequent change, one thing that can be relied upon as a constant is the presence of Tinnakill House Stud at Goffs’s major sales, and Dermot Cantillon and Meta Osborne’s Co Laois nursery reliably returns this weekend with a select draft of mares and foals for the Goffs November Foal and Breeding Stock Sales.

Tinnakill’s 17 foals slated for the first three days of the sale include eight during Sunday’s premier session. Lot 600 is one of 13 foals by Invincible Spirit (Ire) set to go under the hammer and his dam, Chicago Dancer (Ire) (Azamour {Ire}), is quickly accruing an enviable record at this sale. Her first foal, a colt by Sea The Stars (Ire), was bought by the late Gerry Dilger of Dromoland Farm for €330,000 at Goffs November in 2017 and pinhooked for 1-million gns at Tattersalls October Book 1 the following autumn when bought by Godolphin. Named Volkan Star (Ire), he was a winner last year at two for Charlie Appleby and trained on in 2020 to win the Listed Fairway S. and the G3 Prix du Lys over a mile and a half at ParisLongchamp.

Chicago Dancer’s second foal, a filly by Sea The Stars, made €200,000 at Goffs November last year and will carry the green silks of Peter Brant, having been bought by his White Birch Farm for 350,000gns at this year’s renewal of Book 1.

Cantillon expressed confidence that Chicago Dancer’s third foal will catch the eye at Kildare Paddocks. As well as critically having produced a stakes winner with her first foal, Chicago Dancer is a half-sister to two stakes winners herself, and appearing under the third dam are the likes of the G1 Sydney Cup scorer Mourayan (Ire) and the G2 Lancashire Oaks and G3 Lillie Langtry S. winner Endless Time (Ire).

“The pinhookers have done really well out of this family,” Cantillon said. “This colt is by Invincible Spirit and it looks like the mare throws to the stallion. Both of the Sea The Stars’ were very much like him and reminded me very much of their sire, and this one reminds me of Invincible Spirit. He’s a good-walking colt with a good attitude. We expect he’ll do well for us and I’m fairly confident that whoever buys him, he’ll do well for them as well.”

Tinnakill offers a Camelot (GB) colt (lot 582) who is the second foal out of Benefaction (Ire), a 6-year-old daughter of Nathaniel (Ire) who was a winner at three in France. Benefaction is a half-sister to the Aga Khan-bred GI Secretariat S. winner Shamdinan (Fr) (Dr Fong) and the G2 Herbert Power S. scorer Shahwardi (Fr) (Lando {Ger}), and a granddaughter of the G2 Prix de Malleret winner and G1 Irish Oaks second Shamadara (Ire), who produced the G1 Gran Premio di Milano winner Shamdala (Ire). Benefaction has a yearling colt by Siyouni (Fr). The Camelot colt is one of six by his sire in the sale, and Cantillon noted they have been scarce in the marketplace.

“I’ve been surprised but how few Camelots have come up for public auction; I think there were only two or three in Newmarket and again at Goffs there are very few,” he said. “This is an outstanding foal. He comes from a really good Aga Khan Group 1 family and Camelot crossed with that type of mare will get you potentially a top-class middle-distance horse. Physically he’s a good horse, he’s a good walker. I’d be very optimistic he’d sell well and I think he’ll be a very good start for the mare. This would be one of our very best foals.”

Tinnakill’s lot 719 is an Exceed and Excel (Aus) colt out of the Listed John Musker S. third Silver Grey (Ire) (Chineur {Fr}). Cantillon signed for the then 9-year-old Silver Grey for 26,000gns in foal to Brazen Beau (Aus) at Tattersalls December in 2016, just weeks after her listed-placed 4-year-old half-sister Kodiva (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}) sold for $425,000 in foal to Speightstown at Keeneland November. Kodiac, to be fair, looks much catchier on a catalogue page than Chineur, but Silver Grey has nonetheless proven a shrewd purchase for Tinnakill. The Brazen Beau colt she was carrying at the time made 65,000gns as a foal at Tattersalls for Tinnakill, while her next foal, a Fast Company (Ire) filly named Graceful Moment (Ire), made £35,000 as a Doncaster yearling. Tinnakill sold Silver Grey’s Kodiac (GB) yearling colt for 50,000gns at Tattersalls December last year.

“Maybe people were put off by Chineur, but she’s a grey mare and if you look down that family, there have been some very good horses of that colour so I suppose that appealed to me,” Cantillon said.

Those greys on the page include third dam Negligent (Ire) (Ahonoora), England’s champion 2-year-old filly of 1989, and four-time Group 1 and Classic winner Sky Lantern (Ire) (Red Clubs {Ire}). Cantillon explained, however, that the real credit for Silver Grey winding up in the Tinnakill broodmare band is due to showperson Alan Hannigan.

“I was standing on the rail at the back walking ring at Tattersalls and Alan Hannigan, who works for me at the sales, he was leading the horse up and he said to me, ‘Dermot, you should buy this horse,'” Cantillon said. “So that was the extent of the research. On the basis of that I went in and I bought the mare, and she’s been very, very successful for us.”

“Silver Grey was a very good sprinter in her own right,” Cantilled continued. “She was rated 108 and she’s the best sprinter and the highest-rated horse by her sire. Her first foal showed promise at two and has continued; he’s now won three races. This is a typical Exceed and Excel foal; he’s strong, he looks a 2-year-old sprinting type and he’s got a good walk. He’s what you’d hope for, and I always like to see in a foal that when it comes out of the box, it’s what you’d expect to see. He looks like an Exceed and Excel and I think that’s always a big plus.”

Tinnakill offers a filly from the first crop of champion sprinter Harry Angel (Ire) in lot 677. Cantillon purchased the filly’s dam, the winning Mokaraba (GB) (Unfuwain) for €30,000 at Goffs November four years ago from the Derrinstown Stud draft, and in the interim Mokaraba’s first foal, the GIII Robert J Frankel S. winner Qaraaba (GB) (Shamardal), has provided the family a significant boost. Her current 3-year-old is Harvest Moon (Uncle Mo), who won four straight races this summer including the G3 Torrey Pines S. and the GII Zenyatta S. before finishing fourth in the GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Keeneland last month. Qaraaba’s Californiagoldrush (Cape Blanco {Ire}), now five, won the GII Sands Point S. and was third in the GI Del Mar Oaks in 2018. The third dam is the five-time Group 1 winner and triple Classic scorer Salsabil (Sadler’s Wells), herself a daughter of champion Flame Of Tara (GB) and a half-sister to Group 1 winner and sire Marju (Ire).

“I bought that mare from Derrinstown and I’ve been lucky that a number of good black-type horses have come up particularly under her first daughter, who was a stakes winner,” Cantillon said. “Qaraaba is producing fillies that are Group 1 fillies, really, and I’m excited about what’s going to happen as the pedigree matures.”

“I think the Harry Angel filly looks a real sprinting type,” he added. “What I liked about Harry Angel is that he had brilliance. On the racecourse he showed on a number of occasions that he was brilliant. I always think that if you’re going to invest in a stallion, if the stallion has shown that I think it sets them out from the crowd. I have a breeding right in the horse and that’s why I bought it, because I was attracted to the fact that he was such a great racehorse.”

Tinnakill offers just two mares during the breeding stock session of the Goffs November Sale on Monday, and each is a young stakes winner or producer. First into the ring as lot 898 is the 9-year-old Hala Hala (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}). Cantillon bought her for 68,000gns at the same Tattersalls December sale he plucked Silver Grey from in 2016, and the two-time winner out of the Galileo (Ire) mare Galistic (Ire) cost 68,000gns on that occasion while barren. The three foals she has produced for Tinnakill have all done well in the ring-a €55,000 yearling, a 50,000gns foal and a 58,000gns foal-and the middle of those, an Exceed and Excel filly named Hala Hala Hala (Ire), was a winner this year at two and second in the G3 Princess Margaret S. Hala Hala is offered in foal to Bated Breath (GB).

Following Hala Hala into the ring will be Crisaff’s Queen (GB) (Zoffany {Ire}) (lot 899), who broke her maiden in listed company in Italy at second asking and is offered carrying her first foal, by Ten Sovereigns (Ire). Tinnakill purchased her for €30,000 at Goffs February this year.

“They’re two really nice mares,” Cantillon said. “Hala Hala, her second foal was second in a Group 3 as a 2-year-old and looks like she could win a stake next year. Crisaff’s Queen is what a lot of people really look for, and that’s a stakes-winning 2-year-old. They’re two good mares and I think they’d be two good additions to any broodmare band.”

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More Cups Targets For Cross Counter

Godolphin’s 2018 G1 Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter (GB) (Teofilo {Ire}) will have the Australian showpiece as a target once again in 2021 as the gelding stays in training with Charlie Appleby as a 6-year-old.

“Off the back of Twilight Payment winning the Melbourne Cup at the age of seven, hopefully there is still a bit of life left in Cross Counter,” Appleby said. “To win the Melbourne Cup as 3-year-old is a tough gig to do. He went back and put up another good performance in the race last year [eighth], and I just felt this year during the summer he showed the signs of fatigue, so therefore we knocked his season on the head and gave him the rest of the summer off.”

Indeed, Cross Counter ran just three times this year, when third in the Longines Turf Handicap on the Saudi Cup Card and when third in both the G1 Gold Cup at Royal Ascot and the G3 Henry II S. at Sandown.

“He is out in Dubai getting some sunshine, and we will start his campaign there,” Appleby said. “I’d probably say the Dubai Gold Cup would be his main early-year aim. It’s hard for him to run in those handicaps with big weights like he did in that race in Saudi Arabia last year, so I’d think we will aim for the Dubai Gold Cup.

“If he can rekindle his form he will be competitive in that, then longer term, we might work back from a Melbourne Cup with him.”

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