November, 2020 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Improbable, Tom’s D’Etat Horses To Beat In Breeders’ Cup Classic

The 37th running of the Grade 1, $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic brings together a field which must be described as top notch, with the sum of their earnings totaling nearly the entire total of $31 million dollars in purse money to be shared over the two days of the Breeders' Cup World Championships.

Three-year-olds Tiz the Law and Authentic represent the younger set, with the former having won the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and Grade 1 Travers Stakes and the latter victorious in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, but both enter the Classic off runner-up efforts which were very good, but with no real excuses for not winning. That's one matchup fans will definitely have their eyes on.

The other big matchup will be the second meeting between Improbable and Tom's d'Etat, the first resulting in Tom's d'Etat winning by three-quarters of a length in the Oaklawn Mile Stakes in April. Since then, Improbable is undefeated in three races including the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes in his most recent start while Tom's d'Etat won the Grade 2 Stephen Foster Stakes before a stumbling break and third place finish in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes.

Then there's Maximum Security, who has won three of four races this year including the Group 1 Saudi Cup Stakes. Maximum Security enters the Classic off a non-threatening runner-up finish behind Improbable.

In addition, Tacitus won the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes in July at the distance of the Classic and has managed only a second and third place finish since then. By My Standards finished second to Tom's d'Etat in the Foster then second behind Improbable in the Whitney and tries to turn the tables on those foes. Global Campaign won the Grade 1 Woodward Handicap in his most recent start and at the distance of the Classic and may be this good. Higher Power and Title Ready round out the field, with Higher Power winless in six straight races since capturing the Grade 1 Pacific Classic Stakes in the summer of 2019 and with Title Ready having finished fifth and third in his last two races against easier competition.

Main contenders: Even with the fantastic depth in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic, I think Improbable and Tom's d'Etat are the ones to beat and have the bulk of the probability to win. This assessment is based on not only how fast they've run, but their attitude about winning.

Tom's d'Etat won two graded stakes to close out his 2019 campaign including the Hagyard Fayette Stakes last fall at Keeneland That effort earned a 116 Equibase Speed Figure, the second best he had earned to that point in his career, with the best being 118 in the Alydar Stakes two months earlier. In his 2020 debut in April and even after five months off, Tom's d'Etat rallied from eighth to win the Oaklawn Mile Stakes over Improbable by three-quarters of a length with a 113 figure. In the Oaklawn Mile, Improbable had opened up a two length lead in the stretch and appeared to have victory in hand but Tom's d'Etat gained ground with every stride to win going away.

Two months later Tom's d'Etat won the Clark Stakes with a 116 figure and was on a pattern for significant improvement before a bad stumble at the start of the Whitney Stakes in August, resulting in a third place finish. Still, Tom's d'Etat improved to a 117 figure in the Whitney, quite impressive in my opinion. Whitney winner Improbable came right back to win the Awesome Again Stakes and runner-up By My Standards won the Alysheba Stakes, both flattering Tom's d'Etat. Particularly as Tom's d'Etat has relished returning off similar layoffs in the past, I think he can run just as he did in the Oaklawn Mile and post the mild upset in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic.

Improbable has become a different, better, horse since the addition of blinkers before last summer's Shared Belief Stakes. Going into that race, Improbable had won three of seven races but his two just prior to the Shared Belief were poor efforts when fifth in the Kentucky Derby and sixth in the Preakness Stakes. Since then, Improbable has won four of seven, but it's his most recent three efforts which were the most impressive. After returning from five months off and being defeated by Tom's d'Etat in the Oaklawn Mile Stakes, Improbable won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June (at the distance of the Classic) with a 116 which was the second best of his career.

Following up with wins in the Whitney and in the Awesome Again, both with career-best 120 figures, Improbable enters the Classic in the best form of his life. As impressive is the authoritative way in which Improbable has run in his last three races, each time opening up by many lengths with an eighth of a mile to go and holding that advantage to the wire while unchallenged. Granted, in the Oaklawn Mile he had opened up as well and was run down by Tom's d'Etat in the stretch but since then no other horse has worried Improbable in the late stages. Therefore if Tom's d'Etat can't repeat what he did in the Oaklawn Mile, Improbable is very likely to have a commanding lead early in the stretch and win his fourth straight grade 1 race.

About the rest: Lines of separation between most of the other eight contenders in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic are thin, but the line separating them from the top two contenders is not thin in my opinion. I'll take them in alphabetical order, starting with Authentic, whose results on the track match his name with five wins and two runner-up efforts in seven starts. Two of those came at, or very close to, this Classic distance, in the Kentucky Derby and in the Preakness Stakes. Authentic ran valiantly in both, winning the former and coming up a neck shy of Swiss Skydiver in the latter. However, he did not improve in terms of his speed figures, with both efforts resulting in 109 figures, the same as he earned winning the Haskell Stakes in July. I'm just not enamored with this pattern, particularly as I would expect a three year old to continue to improve in the fall. He's a very talented horse but in my opinion he's no match for either Improbable or Tom's d'Etat at this stage.

The same can be said for By My Standards, who has won four of six this year and finished second in the two others. Those two runner-up efforts came behind Improbable in the Whitney and behind Tom's d'Etat in the Foster. Although the figures earned in those races, 118 and 110, respectively, were better than the 109 figures Authentic earned in his last three races, I don't see By My Standards turning the tables on either Improbable or Tom's d'Etat in the Classic.

Global Campaign earned back-to-back 109 figures in the Monmouth Cup and in the Woodward Handicap and although the latter came at the distance of the Classic I don't see him moving up to the level needed to win. Additionally, Global Campaign won both races leading from start to finish with the exception that he was second with an eighth of a mile to go in the Monmouth Cup. In this year's Classic that “early” running style is shared by Authentic and possibly By My Standards as well as Maximum Security.

Maximum Security was no match for Improbable in the Awesome Again, and when winning the Pacific Classic Stakes and San Diego Handicap prior to that faced competition which, for the most part, would be overmatched in this race. He did earn a 118 figure in the Pacific Classic but 107 in the San Diego and the 113 he earned in the Awesome Again was more of a function how fast Improbable ran than the effort Maximum Security put forth. There's no doubt Maximum Security is one of the best horses in the country at this level, but perhaps not the best in this field.

Tiz the Law would be a top contender in this year's Classic if not for the fact that it appears he peaked when winning the Travers Stakes in August. After winning four straight graded stakes from February through August, with a strong pattern of improving figures (112, 113 and 115) through the Travers, Tiz the Law not only could not pass Authentic in the stretch in the Kentucky Derby, his 107 figure suggests he was not as fast in September as he was earlier in the year. Still, he's another horse in this year's Classic with no real knocks, winning six of eight races in his career and earning $2.6 million.

Tacitus (110 best figure) has run evenly in his last two races with 107 and 105 figures and doesn't appear as fast, or to have as much will to win, as many of the others. Higher Power earned a 113 figure winning the 2019 Pacific Classic but hasn't shown the same ability since and particularly as he has been beaten three to six lengths in his last three races, twice by Maximum Security, he appears a bit over his head here. Title Ready earned a career-best 114 figure in the Stymie Stakes when second 19 months ago and has one allowance win to his credit since. He's never run the Classic distance so far in his career.

Win contenders:
Tom's d'Etat
Improbable

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Keeneland on Breeders' Cup Weekend (Friday 11/6 and Saturday 11/7), at Equibase.com

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Cheering for Hope from Houston

Nearly a thousand miles from Keeneland Race Course, a watch party in Houston, Texas is sure to be cheering just as emphatically as if they were in the grandstand.

Residents of Camp Hope, a facility that provides support and mentoring to combat veterans suffering from the effects of Post-Traumatic Stress, will tune in on Friday to watch a juvenile colt named after the residential program. If Camp Hope (Summer Front) ends up in the winner’s circle for the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his earnings will go back to the facility he represents.

Camp Hope heads into the Breeders’ Cup coming off just one career start, but it’s a flashy four-length winning one on Oct. 25 at Churchill Downs. The son of Summer Front is campaigned by Walking L Thoroughbreds, a company owned by Scott Leeds and his wife Dana.

Leeds stopped in at the Camp Hope facility early this week to make sure the residents would be watching the races this weekend.

“When I walked in, everybody knew who I was and they started saying how much they were looking forward to it,” Leeds said. “They’d seen the race from Churchill and were pretty excited. They were asking if horses normally win in their first race and I had to explain to them that I’ve had horses that didn’t win the first 14 times they raced.”

Leeds has hardly had bad luck as an owner in Thoroughbred racing. When he retired from the oil and gas business five years ago, he decided horse racing might be an interesting new venture. He got connected with Kenny McPeek, and was quickly hooked.

“We started out with some small shares in a few horses he had bought,” Leeds recalled. “Before any of them ever ran I was already in so deep that we went to the sales in the summer of 2015 and started buying horses ourselves.”

Since then, they’ve already had several top stakes contenders including Cairo Cat (Cairo Prince), who won the GIII Iroquois S. two years ago but was held back from a Breeders’ Cup start due to an injury, as well as Envoutante (Uncle Mo), one of McPeek’s top fillies this year who most recently claimed the GIII Remington Park Oaks.

Leeds presents Camp Hope staff with Fighting Seabee’s win photo | Scott Leeds

Camp Hope is not the only Walking L horse that races for a cause. It all started with a colt they named Fighting Seabee (Summer Front) in honor of Leeds’s great-grandfather who was a Navy Seabee in World War II. When the colt ran undefeated in his first two starts, including a win in last year’s GIII With Anticipation S., Leeds and his wife decided to share Fighting Seabee’s earnings with the Seabee Historical Foundation, the PTSD Foundation of America and Camp Hope.

“We’ve been supporting the PTSD Foundation of America for a few years,” Leeds said. “Their mission is to support veterans who suffer from PTSD with an expectation that if they can provide peer-to-peer support and temporary housing at Camp Hope, the lives of these folks who come back from the service and have a hard time transitioning will be impacted.”

According to their website, Camp Hope offers a minimum of a six-month program. Residents attend group counseling sessions, as well as individual mentoring sessions with a certified combat trauma mentor. Veterans will also receive vocational preparation, workforce development and job training.

“One of the statistics that knocked us over was that 22 veterans a day, on average, commit suicide in the United States,” Leeds said. “That’s one every hour and six minutes. Their mission is to stop one. If they can make one less veteran make that decision and help them cope with PTSD, the mission is successful. The groups have been so supportive and grateful for what Fighting Seebea has done. We made great racing fans out of the folks at the foundation and at Camp Hope.”

There will be much for the new fans to cheer for on Friday as Fighting Seabee will run in the ‘Future Stars Friday’ undercard in the Bryan Station S. hours before Camp Hope is set to make his second career start.

Camp Hope came to be purchased by Walking L in large part from Fighting Seabee’s early success. Leeds purchased Camp Hope, a son of Summer Front, at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton July Sale just three days after Fighting Seabee became the second winner for the Airdrie stallion.

“We had actually already bought three horses and it was getting pretty late in the day,” Leeds recalled. “We were talking about where we were going to eat dinner that night when Bret Jones called Kenny and suggested we come look at a horse he was going to take through the ring in a few minutes. So we went back and ended up liking him a lot.”

When McPeek chose to enter Camp Hope in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race, Leeds said he had been excited to see the juvenile take on two turns.

Dana Leeds poses with a yearling Camp Hope | Scott Leeds

“We thought he would end up being pretty strong first-time out,” he said. “But you also expect a horse would get tired going two turns in his first start so you don’t really expect to win. Coming down the backside, I saw where he was positioned and I saw the time was slow and could tell Brian had him pretty well in hand. Then I had a feeling we were in for a big performance.”

After Camp Hope’s easy four-length victory, the team sat down to discuss where to go from there.

“There wasn’t much to think about,” Leeds said. “Kenny and I both felt strongly that with no Lasix, coming back in 12 days really wasn’t that much of a stretch. The horse didn’t get asked for a lot and he galloped out even further than he won by. Brian [Hernandez, jockey] said they were on cruise. We pre-entered with the expectation that if he didn’t bounce back as quickly or if there were any issues, we would obviously scratch. But he’s done everything above and beyond what we’ve expected and I think it’s going to work out great.”

While McPeek is still winless at the Breeders’ Cup, he couldn’t be coming in with a hotter hand this year with four other contenders including GI Preakness S. heroine Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil).

Leeds said that he and his wife will be making the trip from Texas to Lexington on Wednesday, and that they will be on-site for the rest of the week sporting their Camp Hope gear.

“We told them we’re going to look for every opportunity to spread the word,” he said.

And while Leeds would certainly be thrilled with their first Breeders’ Cup win, there’s no doubt he would be even more excited for the rest of their connections.

“We’re very fortunate and we feel like we’ve already outdone the expectations we set for ourselves,” he said. “If we run good, that’s our goal- to show that this horse has a really bright future going into his 3-year-old campaign. But if we happen to win, we’re just going to be over-the-moon excited for the horse, for Kenny, and then for Camp Hope. Being able to write the check to those people would truly be special.”

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Two Win Candidates Stand Out in 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic

The 37th running of the Grade 1, $6 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic brings together a field which must be described as top notch, with the sum of their earnings totaling nearly the entire total of $31 million dollars in purse money to be shared over the two days of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships Nov. 6-7 at Keeneland Race Course.

Sprint: Weaver Not Worried About Outside Post With Vekoma, Whitmore ‘As Good As He’s Ever Been’

Vekoma – R. A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables' Vekoma arrived from Saratoga Springs, N.Y. by van early Tuesday morning before getting acquainted with the Keeneland racetrack during a 1 3/8-mile gallop.

“Everything's gone smoothly so far,” trainer George Weaver said.

Vekoma, who was installed as the 3-1 morning line favorite for Saturday's Breeders' Cup Sprint, drew post position 14.

“I like it. I'd rather draw outside than inside,” Weaver said. “You run the risk of being parked real wide on the turn, but I think he has enough tactical speed to clear horses and get in a favorable spot before he gets to that turn.”

Vekoma is 3-for-3 this year but hasn't run since capturing the July 4 Metropolitan Mile at Belmont Park.

“He's been training really well. We're looking forward to getting him back to the races. I don't know how he's going to run off a four-month layoff, but it's not a six-month layoff or a year layoff,” Weaver said. “It's four months. Once we got him into a breeze pattern he jumped back into fitness very easily.”

The 4yo son of Candy Ride popped a foot abscess about a month after the Met Mile.

“I would have obviously liked to see our horse run. He's such a star,” Weaver said. “I wanted to run him in the Forego at Saratoga – that didn't happen. We were hoping to make the Vosburgh, not so much needing a race but to see a star run.”

Vekoma, who won the Nashua at Aqueduct at 2 and the Blue Grass at Keeneland at 3, finished 13th in the 2019 Kentucky Derby before going to the sidelines for more than 10 months. He returned to win the March 28 Sir Shackleton at Gulfstream Park by 3 ¾ lengths before scoring by 7 ¼ lengths in the Carter at Belmont Park June 6.

“At the time I was worried that Gulfstream might get shut down [due to the COVID-19 pandemic]. Luckily, they got to keep going and we got the race in. From that point on we were looking at the Carter and the Met Mile,” Weaver said. “He's a good horse. I can't stress that enough. To win off a layoff like that, if you have a good one, all those things don't matter that much. I'm not saying he's going to win, but it won't be the fitness, it won't be the layoff (that would get him beat).”

Whitmore – The veteran Whitmore got reacquainted with the Keeneland track Tuesday morning after arriving Monday afternoon from his Churchill base and jogged 1 1/2 miles under regular rider Laura Moquett, wife and assistant to her husband trainer Ron Moquett, as he prepares for his fourth start in the Sprint. Whitmore, who was second in the Sprint in 2018 and third last year, has prepped for each of his Breeders' Cup starts in the Phoenix at Keeneland and has a record of 1-2-0 in four tries. He was fourth in the race this year.

“He's doing great,” said Moquett, who also co-owns the gelding with Robert LaPenta and Sol Kumin's Head of Plains Partners. “He's doing very good right now, we're excited. I think he's coming in to this race as good as he's ever been.”

When asked about the accomplishment of getting a horse to the Breeders' Cup four times, Moquett said, “First off you have to have a horse that likes his job. They have to want to do this. And, we've been able find a routine that suits him.

“What I think is really awesome about Whitmore is how he's been able to connect with people over these last four years. I don't think a day goes by that someone doesn't reach out through social media to comment about how much they enjoy following him. A lot of people have been following him since he ran in the (Kentucky) Derby (in 2016). The connection he's made with fans is really cool.”

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