November, 2020 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Breeders’ Cup Weekend is Here!

Featuring five deep, competitive fields and plenty of intrigue, Future Stars Friday will get the two-day, 37th Breeders’ Cup World Championships festivities underway from historic Keeneland Race Course. First post on the all-stakes card at the bucolic oval, hosting the Breeders’ Cup for the second time, is 11:30 a.m. ET, with the first Breeders’ Cup race set to run at 2:30 p.m. All in all, 184 horses were entered in the 14 World Championship races, which conclude with the highly-anticipated GI Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, slated for 5:18 p.m. Saturday.

Perfect weather is expected for both days, with sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70s.

Speed will take center stage first in the 5 1/2-furlong GII Juvenile Turf Sprint, which was shaken up when expected heavy favorite Golden Pal (Uncle Mo) drew the 14-hole in a race that features three European shippers and nine stakes winners.

Euro participation picks up significantly in the GI Juvenile Turf, with half of the 14 entrants making their first starts in North America. The one-mile test is one of the most wide open races of the two days, as evidenced by the chilly 5-1 morning-line quote on favored Mutasaabeq (Into Mischief). Aidan O’Brien-trained player Battleground (War Front) is the first foal out of Found (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), winner of the 2015 GI Breeders’ Cup Turf at Keeneland.

The GI Juvenile Fillies is next, as a short on quantity, long on quality seven-horse group lines up. The race storyline centers around undefeated 9-5 chalk Princess Noor (Not This Time), who has been dominant in all three starts but is yet to crack an 80 Beyer. Three more unblemished fillies give America a strong hand in the GI Juvenile Fillies Turf, as Wesley Ward’s Campanelle (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}) returns home off a Group 1 win in France, and graded stakes winners Aunt Pearl (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}) and Plum Ali (First Samurai) loom large.

The GI TVG Juvenile closes out Friday’s action, and all eyes will be on Jackie’s Warrior (Maclean’s Music). The four-for-four colt has barely broken a sweat in four brilliant outings, including two Grade I triumphs, but faces an abundance of early speed and must navigate two turns for the first time.

Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup action gets underway with the GI Filly & Mare Sprint at 12:02 p.m. Gamine (Into Mischief), who has been brilliant in conquests of the GI Acorn S. and GI Longines Test S. but has also twice tested positive for a banned substance, is installed as a 7-5 favorite. A wide-open GI Turf Sprint headlined by multiple Grade I-winning mare Got Stormy (Get Stormy) follows, and Complexity (Maclean’s Music) drew wide as the favorite in the GI Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile. A deep and international field will contest the GI Maker’s Mark Filly & Mare Turf, as six-time Grade I winner Rushing Fall (More Than Ready) looks for her second Breeders’ Cup win in her likely career finale.

The GI Sprint, which lost its morning-line choice when Vekoma (Candy Ride {Arg}) scratched Thursday, comes next, and a clash of continents provides one of the deepest fields of the weekend in the GI FanDuel Mile. The marquee matchup of champion Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) and potential Horse of the Year Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) dominates the intrigue of a 10-horse GI Longines Distaff, and Europe appears to have the GI Longines Turf cornered with a powerful six-horse contingent headed by seven-time Group 1 winner and 2018 Turf runner-up Magical (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}).

The curtain will close with one of the deepest Classic fields in recent memory. Bob Baffert sends out the formidable trio of Improbable (City Zip), thrice a Grade I winner this year, GI Kentucky Derby hero and narrow GI Preakness S. runner-up Authentic (Into Mischief) and controversial champion Maximum Security (New Year’s Day). Dazzling GI Runhappy Travers S. and GI Belmont S. conqueror Tiz the Law (Constitution) will try to salt away both the 3-year-old championship and a Horse of the Year crown, and Grade I-winning millionaire Tom’s d’Etat (Blame) rounds out the top contenders.

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Versatility ‘Never Hurts’: United Could Be The Early Leader Or Could Stalk Pace In The Turf

United will be back this weekend to contest his second Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf, and his connections will no doubt be hoping he can turn around last year's painfully-close second-place finish behind Bricks and Mortar.

This year, trainer Richard Mandella said he'll be coming in with a new weapon: a running style discovered in his win in the G2 John Henry Turf Championship last time out.

“We decided to just jump him out, put him on the lead, and stay out of trouble,” said Mandella. “He'd been in trouble the race before and it may have cost him winning. We thought we'd let him jump out there and he really liked it. It gives us the feeling that we have options now to do whatever feels best.”

Previously, United had been prone to stalk an early leader going at a slow or moderate pace, and wait farther back off a hot pace. It's possible the newfound versatility could give him an edge over the many European invaders in the race, including formidable foes in Magical (IRE) and Mehdaayih (GB), but Mandella wasn't tipping his hand when it came to race strategy on Thursday.

“It never hurts to have the versatility option to go either way,” Mandella said. “But it's too early — I haven't seen enough of the field yet to handicap and figure out what our best strategy is. I'll pretty much leave that up to Flavien Prat, a great jockey.”

United has been first or second in all his starts going back to the 2019 John Henry, and Mandella said he feels good about the gelding coming into the weekend. He does anticipate a challenger in Channel Maker, the Bill Mott trainee who won this year's Sword Dancer by an impressive 5 3/4 lengths, but he doesn't focus too much on other horses, preferring to keep eyes on his own work.

Since he's a gelding, Mandella said it's likely United will be back for a 6-year-old campaign. He'd tried to take the horse to this year's G1 Dubai Sheema Classic, but evolving travel lockdowns due to COVID-19 meant he brought the horse to Dubai, schooled him in the paddock, and promptly learned they had to head home. It might be nice to try again, Mandella said in a press conference Thursday, depending upon what international travel protocols are by March 2021.

“I fully intend to keep him around as long as he's healthy and happy,” said Mandella.

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Notable US-Bred & -Sired Runners in Japan: Nov. 7, 2020

In this continuing series, we take a look ahead at US-bred and/or conceived runners entered for the upcoming weekend at the tracks on the Japan Racing Association circuit, with a focus on pedigree and/or performance in the sales ring. Here are the horses of interest for this Saturday, with all the US-bred and -sired activity confined to Tokyo Racecourse:

Saturday, November 7, 2020
5th-TOK, ¥13,400,000 ($129k), Newcomers, 2yo, 1600m
SCATTER SEED (JPN) (f, 2, Uncle Mo–Scatladybdancing, by Scat Daddy) is out of a stakes-placed full-sister to SW Ultima D that was purchased for $390K with this foal in utero at the 2017 Keeneland November Sale. The February foal’s third dam includes GSW Cat’s Career (Mr. Prospector) as well as Cat’s Eye Witness (Elusive Quality), the dam of Scat Daddy’s outstanding young sire son No Nay Never, who was second to the fast-finishing Bobby’s Kitten (Kitten’s Joy) in the 2014 GII Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Santa Anita. B-Oiwake Farm

6th-TOK, ¥13,400,000 ($129k), Newcomers, 2yo, 1300m
SATONO MUSTANG (c, 2, Mineshaft–Mare and Cher, by Old Fashioned), a $25K KEESEP acquisition, worked :10 flat from essentially a standing start and was hammered down for $150K at OBS March this past winter. A half-brother to SW Cruise and Danz (Street Boss), the dark bay is out of a half-sister to SW & GSP Fight On (Into Mischief) and his third dam includes MGSW Royal Haven (Hail Emperor) and GSW & GISP Belterra (Unbridled). Sheave (Mineshaft), a daughter of the latter, was responsible for GI Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia (Street Boss). B-Haymarket Farm LLC (KY)

11th-TOK, Keio Hai Nisai S.-G2, ¥72m ($696k), 2yo, 1400mT
REFRAME (f, 2, American Pharoah–Careless Jewel, by Tapit) carries a mark of two-for-two and returns on just 13 days’ rest for her stakes debut Saturday. The $410K KEESEP yearling remarkably won her first career start July 25 despite drifting all the way to the outside, was given intensive retraining in the meantime, and resumed with an eye-catching five-length allowance success over this course and distance Oct. 25 (see below, gate 6). The daughter of the pensioned GI Alabama S. winner Careless Jewel is one of five fillies in the field of 18. B-Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

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Stall: The 3-Year-Olds Are The X Factor In This Year’s Classic

The Breeders' Cup will be one of the few major events in American racing taking place at its normal place in the calendar this year, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. But Tom's d'Etat trainer Al Stall Jr., said that we shouldn't forget that the schedule disruptions from earlier this year could still have an impact on the Classic.

“I don't think anyone's ever gone into the Classic and said it's a soft field,” Stall said. “There are a lot of superlatives talking about these horses and I agree. I think the X factor is the 3-year-olds. Because of the way the Triple Crown laid out these year, they've had a nice progression into the race. There are two 3-year-olds that really got my attention — obviously, Tiz the Law and Authentic — and that's a little bit different than in years past. Sometimes you'll get a 3-year-old who's a little bit down and out. Obviously Pharoah was the exception to that.

“It's all about the trip and the luck from here on out.”

Stall does not expect any one horse will be allowed to take an uncontested easy lead, and much of the race will come down to strategy. He's hopeful Tom's d'Etat can sit off the early going, but it will come down to how the traffic plays out.

Perhaps surprisingly, Stall said there's no one horse in this field that intimidates him more than any other, or even a handful. Stall said there are eight contenders (though he did not name them) he thinks could pull off a win.

If he were to win the Classic, Tom's d'Etat will have done it off one of the longest layoffs since Invasor (ARG) in 2006. Stall said the break from the Aug. 1 Grade 1 Whitney to the Classic was a combination of design and circumstance. He considered sending the horse to the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup but when the stakes schedule was released, he realized that gave him 28 days to get the horse from one effort to the next. Stall's gut told him to bring the 7-year-old in fresh. He let the horse relax for a little while, the began ramping up his breezes in mid-September and sent him out for an easy four-furlong work Oct. 31, which reminded him of the final work from Blame in 2010.

“He just went out there by himself and was looking around and stretching his legs,” said Stall. “He seems to have benefitted from that because he has seemed very, very comfortable all week.”

Much of the media attention (and likely, eventually, wagering) will be on Tiz the Law and the Baffert trio. It isn't the first time Stall has come into the Classic hoping to steal the spotlight. Zenyatta's loss to Blame was a heartbreaker for many in racing, but Stall has happy memories of that strange, quiet night at Churchill Downs.

“I just remember afterwards it was a perfectly clear, crisp, Kentucky fall evening and the sky was coral and the black was coming in. We were so happy for all the connections, everybody involved, the horse himself,” Stall remembered. “Our little pocket celebrated quite loudly while the rest of the grandstand was silent but we didn't notice that.”

Stall confirmed Tom's d'Etat will be retired after Saturday's races. Earlier this year, it was announced he will take up stud duties at WinStar farm.

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