September, 2020 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Betting MLB: Ballpark Figures Keeps Betting Totals in Perspective

A few years back we wrote an article on the importance of evaluating how teams hit left-handed and right-handed pitchers. In summary, we surmised it was important, yet keeping in perspective, we demonstrated how the numbers can be greatly affected by random chance. Hence we warned about becoming too dependant on deceptive statistics that are so often fools gold.

We have very similar thoughts about comparing ballpark statistics. There are some stadiums that could be classified as “pitchers’ ballparks” while others could reasonably be labeled more friendly to hitters.

Yet again, we have to give props to the four-letter evil empire ESPN. In their fantasy baseball section, they have a straight-forward “Park Factor” that compares that rate of stats at home versus the rate of stats on the road. A rate that is higher than 1.000 favors the hitter, with lower than 1.000 favoring the pitcher.

Still, statistical reliability would assume the quality of the opponent has been equal at home and on the road. Random chance indicates some teams will face or use a disproportionate number of aces and No. 2 starters in one location. This deviation is just one example.

Then there is wind direction. Perhaps several teams have had the wind blowing in straight from center a higher percentage while other squads has an overbalanced number blowing out to leftfield.

Why, according the ESPN Ballpark Factor, is Boston the top hitters’ park this year, but was 13th last season?
As of this writing, Rogers Centre in Toronto is the second best pitchers park, yet last year it was a hitters paradise ranking 7th in hitting (24th pitching).

Petco Park is a rare exception. They are currently the top pitcher’s ball orchard after finishing first each of the previous three years and third in 2003.

So how do the elite gamblers use the stats? To measure the reliability of pitchers’ splits is how we employ them. For example, virtually every Padre is going to have statistically better stats at home than on the road. The fact that Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and

David Wells have significantly better stats at home than on the road proves to be the rule, not the exception. Hence the educated eye realizes there is not an angle in their respective splits.

Yet Jake Peavy is actually a better pitcher on the road than at home. This is an advantage for the gambler. A pitcher’s splits are most effective when measured against the ballpark stats.

Is there an edge for the over/under better? Often short-term, but rarely is the edge long-term as the sportsbooks adjust. As of June 19, the Padres last eight road games and 11-of-12 has seen a posted total of 8.0 or higher.
Yet 15 of their last 18 home games have seen a total of 7.5 or lower. Thinking somehow the sportsbooks are oblivious to such angles is one way for a gambler to subsidize bookmakers.

The Park Factor statistic is a valuable handicapping weapon, but more for statistical validation. Those who think they’ve found the Holy Grail with stadium comparisons are not in the same ballpark as the sharpies.
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Notable US-Bred Runners in Japan: Sept. 13, 2020

In this continuing series, we take a look ahead at US-bred and/or conceived runners entered for the upcoming weekend at the tracks on the Japan Racing Association circuit, with a focus on pedigree and/or performance in the sales ring. Here are the horses of interest for this weekend running at Chukyo and Nakayama Racecourses:

Sunday, September 13, 2020
5th-NKY, ¥13,400,000 ($126k), Newcomers, 2yo, 1600mT
AMERICAN PEACE (c, 2 Tapit–La Cloche, by Ghostzapper), a $325K Keeneland September acquisition, is the latest produce from his Grade III-winning dam, a $2.4m Fasig-Tipton purchase by this breeder who is responsible for American Peace’s full-sister Bellevais, also a Grade III winner on turf. Second dam Memories of Silver (Silver Hawk) was a two-time winner at the highest level, and her MGISW daughter Winter Memories (El Prado {Ire}) is the dam of the MSW & MGSP ‘TDN Rising Star’ Winter Sunset (Tapit). This is also the family of fellow GSW ‘Rising Star’ Hawkish (Artie Schiller). The colt’s Tiznow half-brother is consigned as hip 1035 at KEESEP next week. B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY)

Selling today with a STRONG female family: Hip 480

This colt by Tapit is out of G3W La Cloche (Ghostzapper), who is a daughter MG1W Memories of Silver, and a half-sister to MG1W Winter Memories. Hip 480 is a full sibling to G3W Bellavais.

Come see him now at Barns 22/23! #TM4U pic.twitter.com/6LndYm6zId

— Taylor Made Farm (@TaylorMadeSales) September 11, 2019

MELIODAS (c, 2, Uncle Mo–Fifty Foot Woman, by Giant’s Causeway) was also knocked down for $325K at KEESEP last fall and is out of a full-sister to GSW Excited, the dam of SW & MGSP Thrilled (Uncle Mo); and SW Wait Til Dawn. The May foal’s stakes-winning second dam Path of Thunder (Thunder Gulch) was a full-sister to GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff upsetter Spain and a half to MGSW Puerto Banus (Supremo) and GSW Fantastic Spain (Fantastic Fellow). A Curlin half-sister to Meliodas is set to sell as hip 162 during Sunday’s opening session at KEESEP. B-Fred W Hertrich III & John D Fielding (KY)

11th-CKO, Centaur S.-G2, ¥112.8m ($1.06m), 3yo/up, 1200mT
MR MELODY (h, 5, Scat Daddy–Trusty Lady, by Deputy Minister) returns to his best game in this prep for the Oct. 4. G1 Sprinters’ S. Winner of the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen (1200m) in 2019 (see below, gate 3), the bay was sixth in the JBC Classic on dirt last November and has just one start since, an unplaced effort in the G1 Yasuda Kinen over Tokyo’s metric mile June 7. A half-brother to GSP Trendy Lady (Unbridled’s Song), Mr Melody was RNAd for $75K as a KEENOV weanling, fetched $100K as a KEESEP yearling the following fall and was purchased by his current connections for $400K out of the 2017 OBS April Sale. B-Bell Tower Thoroughbreds (KY)

SHIVAJI (h, 5, First Samurai–Indian Bay, by Indian Charlie) won four of 13 starts on dirt to begin his career and though he has registered just one victory–a most improbable one at that– from five turf tries (video, gate 8), he has run with credit, including a close fifth to the fleet Mozu Superflare (Speightstown) in this year’s Takamatsunomiya Kinen. Produced by a daughter of GSW Buy the Barrel (E Dubai), Shivaji was a $90K KEESEP grad turned $540K OBSAPR breezer. His full-sister is cataloged as hip 1818 at this year’s KEESEP sale. B-Hinkle Farms (KY)

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Logician Downs Lone Rival In Doncaster Return

Last term’s unbeaten G1 St Leger hero Logician (GB) (Frankel {GB}), under wraps following a bout of peritonitis, maintained his perfect record in Thursday’s 10-furlong Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Conditions S. back at the scene of that Classic triumph in his first start since.

1st-Doncaster, £20,000, Cond, 9-10, 3yo/up, 10f 43yT, 2:10.36, gd.
LOGICIAN (GB) (c, 4, Frankel {GB}–Scuffle {GB} {SP-Eng}, by Daylami {Ire}) was under wraps after a storied case of peritonitis and went postward as the prohibitively priced 1-12 favourite facing just one rival, last year’s G2 Zabeel Mile victress Mythical Magic (Ire) (Iffraaj {GB}), in this eagerly awaited return. He stepped into an immediate lead, racing under a firm hold through the early stages, but was headed briefly soon after straightening for home. Nudged back in front approaching the quarter-mile marker, the hitherto undefeated grey turned the contest into an exercise canter thereafter and powered clear following the same stands’ side route as last year before gearing down for an easy seven-length score. “It was a nice, proper stretch and he’s finished very well and comfortable under hands and heels,” said winning trainer John Gosden. “This horse had two months in intensive care and I can have nothing but praise for the veterinarians at the Newmarket Equine Clinic for saving his life, twice, so that he can be here today. It’s been a long road and we’re very pleased to see him back. There’ll be no immediate plans, he’s well entered in the autumn, but I’d like to see how he is in the next 10 days before even thinking about another race. Just to get him back here is extraordinary in itself. We couldn’t be more pleased at this stage, but I don’t want to commit to anything now. We’re on the cusp of the autumn if we want to run again this year, but the horse will tell us. We know a mile-and-a-half is spot-on for him so, next year, he’ll have races like the King George as an absolute target.” One of five winners from as many runners produced by Listed Snowdrop Fillies’ S. third Scuffle (GB) (Daylami {Ire}), Logician is a full-brother to the stakes-winning Collide (GB) and a weanling colt. He is also kin to MGSW GI E.P. Taylor S. runner-up Suffused (GB) (Champs Elysees {GB}), Listed October S. placegetter Battlement (GB) (Dansili {GB}), the once-raced 2-year-old filly Monsoon Moon (GB) (Kingman {GB}), who shaped with a deal of promise when third in an Ascot novice heat last week, and a yearling colt by Time Test (GB). Scuffle is herself a daughter of MSW G3 Supreme S. third Tantina (Distant View) and thus a half-sister to G1SW sire Cityscape (GB) (Selkirk) and G2 Temple S. victor and MG1SP sire Bated Breath (GB) (Dansili {GB}). Lifetime Record: Hwt. 3yo-Eng at 14f+ & G1SW-Eng, 6-6-0-0, $656,003. Video, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.
O-Khalid Abdullah; B-Juddmonte Farms Ltd (GB); T-John Gosden.

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African Horse Sickness Outbreak In Malaysia

Five horses in Malaysia have been diagnosed with African Horse Sickness; the disease had never been confirmed in the country until this outbreak. The horses lived in Terengganu, located in the eastern part of the Malay Peninsula. On September 2, Malay authorities reported the outbreak, noting that the horses had been exhibiting signs of the disease since early August. The horses had difficulty breathing, were lame and had a fever.

The source of the virus is not known. There are nine different serotypes of African Horse Sickness, each with a specific geographic distribution. Identifying the serotype may indicate from which region the virus originated. AHS is transmitted by biting midges and the disease tends to be seasonal; it's generally associated with hot and humid weather.

The Malaysian outbreak follows on the heels of an AHS outbreak in Thailand, where 604 horses were affected and 562 died. Malaysia is approximately 550 miles from Thailand, but it is unknown if the occurrence in Malaysia is the from the movement of horses, the movement of infected vectors or is a new occurrence of the disease.

AHS affects all species of Equidae and the severity of clinical signs is dependent upon the virus strain and species affected. The fatality rate in horses can reach up to 90 percent. Though there is a commercial vaccine for AHS, none are approved for use in the European Union.