G1SW King of Change Retired

Classic bridesmaid and G1SW King of Change (GB) (Farhh {GB}-Salacia {Ire}, by Echo of Light {GB}) has been retired, trainer Richard Hannon announced via his website on Monday. Stud plans for the 2019 G1 Queen Elizabeth II S. victor are pending.

Bred by Rabbah Bloodstock Ltd. and racing by Ali Abdulla Saeed, the bay won at Nottingham in his 3-year-old bow before running second in the G1 QIPCO 2000 Guineas. He returned to listed company with a win in Sandown’s Fortune S. and ended his sophomore season with a victory in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot in October. A race record of 6-3-3-0 and earnings of $995,418 will go with the half-brother to MGSW Century Dream (Ire) (Cape Cross {Ire}), who placed third in the Queen Elizabeth II S., to his second career.

“He is without doubt one of the best milers that we have ever trained,” said Hannon on www.richardhannonracing.co.uk. “His second in the 2000 Guineas was an outstanding effort and he then went on to win the QEII on Champions Day with a performance that I can only describe as impeccable.

“His obvious ability is matched by his physical stature and I am sure he is extremely well equipped to make it as a stallion. I would like to express my thanks to the Belhab Family for allowing me to train a star like him. It has been a wonderful opportunity and a great pleasure. He will be sorely missed by everyone here when he leaves to do his new job and we look forward to following the paths of his offspring for years to come.”

Out of a winning daughter of Group 3 winner Neptune’s Bride (Bering {GB}), King of Change (GB) counts as his third dam G3 Prix du Ris-Orangis heroine Wedding of the Sea (Blushing Groom {Fr}).

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The Weekly Wrap: Positives To Be Found In Yearling Market

September ushered in the early rounds of the yearling sales in Europe, with the Goffs UK Premier, BBAG, Tattersalls Ascot and Arqana Select sales all having taken place within the last fortnight. Three of that quartet have at least been able to take place in their intended venues, albeit Arqana’s flagship sale was three weeks later than usual. The one-day Tattersalls Ascot Yearling Sale was moved to Newmarket, and Park Paddocks will also host the Tattersalls Irelend September Sale next week, which has been reduced to two days from three, presumably because some vendors will be unable or unwilling to ship their horses to Newmarket at significant extra cost.

Of the sales to come, Tattersalls October has remained intact and in situ, as has the Arqana October sale which will also incorporate horses from the cancelled Osarus September Sale and will now be held over five days. Further relocations from Ireland will be faced by vendors at the Goffs Orby and Sportsman’s Sales, which will now be held in Doncaster from Sept. 24 to Oct. 1.

It is fair to say that this year has been a logistical nightmare for sales houses, vendors and buyers, with the need to weigh up varying travel and quarantine restrictions from country to country. A number of Irish pinhookers have made their way to Kentucky for the Keeneland September Sale, which is taking place across the next fortnight and has proved such a fertile source of material for the European breeze-ups in the last few years. But almost every trip now comes at the cost of another in a sales season which has become increasingly crowded. It will almost certainly contract somewhat in the coming years as the full economic force of the pandemic is felt and breeders fall by the wayside. One of the very few upsides to the current situation may be that breeders take a keener look at the quality of mare they cover, particularly if they have no intention of racing her offspring themselves.

So how have the yearling sales held up so far in Europe? Given the extraordinarily awful backdrop of 2020, the answer has to be not too badly, with positive indicators to be found at each.

At the Goffs UK Premier Sale, which has been notably upwardly mobile in recent years, a clearance rate of 84% has to be considered a success, even though average and median figures dropped by 29% and 25% respectively. This is a level of reduction that many in the industry had anticipated and which is generally being seen elsewhere.

The clearance rate at both BBAG and Arqana was lower, but that tends to be the norm for those sales, where the best of Germany’s and France’s yearling crops are offered and top-end breeders in those countries can be selective over whether to sell or not. In a difficult year, it is perhaps better to stick than to twist.

But it is worth reiterating that, despite pre-sale nerves from vendors, each of these auctions saw some decent action within the almost recession-proof top tier. At Baden-Baden, last year’s record price of €820,000 was matched, once again for a filly by Sea The Stars (Ire), though the number of six-figure lots was less than half of the 2019 tally of 21. Just as Goffs UK missed Sheikh Hamdan, so did BBAG miss Sheikh Mohammed, as well as the Australian buyers who have visited the sale in pursuit of staying-bred yearlings in recent years.

International participation is also a cornerstone of Arqana’s August Sale (which was renamed the Select Sale this year in its later slot). Three million-plus yearlings were sold, compared to two last year, and the two highest prices of €2.5 million and €2 million both surpassed last year’s top price, albeit for collector’s items. Of the seven-figure lots, Coolmore and Godolphin took home one each, but were otherwise very selective in their purchases, buying five yearlings between them. The same number was purchased by the sale’s emerging Bahraini force of the brothers Sheikh Khalid and Sheikh Nasser bin Hamad Al Khalifa, two of eight sons of the King of Bahrain. Sheikh Nasser owns Queen Daenerys (Ire) (Frankel {GB}), who helpfully won the listed Prix Joubert at Longchamp on Thursday just hours before the Dubawi (Ire) half-sister to Sistercharlie (Ire) (Myboycharlie {Ire}) and Sottsass (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}) took to the ring. Through Fawzi Nass and Oliver St Lawrence, the sheikhs ended up outbidding Sheikh Mohammed for the sale-topper. Sheikh Khalid’s KHK Racing has also enjoyed some success lately with the unbeaten Bahrain Pride (GB) (Kodiac {GB}), winner of the listed EBF Ripon Champion Two Yrs Old Trophy.

Furthermore, the most expensive colt at the BBAG Sale, a €260,000 offering by Sea The Moon (Ger), was purchased by fellow Bahraini, Shaikh Duaij Al Khalifa, the owner of four-time Group 2-winning sprinter A’Ali (Ire) (Society Rock {Ire}), whose intention it is to buy some more middle-distance types at this year’s yearling sales.

The relatively new Tattersalls Ascot Yearling Sale, which has only been in existence for four years, continues to progress gradually, and it is no small feat in this year to have improved on both the average and the median at the same time as the catalogue has expanded. It is probably fair to say that this particular sale was introduced to provide an outlet for lower-tier yearlings, but some decent horses have emerged from the Ascot Yearling Sale since its inception, most recently the G2 Lowther S. winner Miss Amulet (Ire) (Sir Prancealot {Ire}). Again, a clearance rate of 81% was encouraging. However, when one considers that only around 25% of the yearlings sold will have covered their production costs, the precarious nature of breeding at this end of the market is all too apparent.

Believe In Ringfort
It was perhaps fitting that Derek and Gay Veitch’s Ringfort Stud topped the Ascot Yearling Sale with a first-crop daughter of Profitable (Ire). If any operation deserves to have a profitable year it is Ringfort. The Veitches must by now have a particular fondness for Yorkshire racecourses. During York’s Ebor meeting, Minzaal (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}) became the farm’s second consecutive G2 Gimcrack S. winner, and that victory came a day after the aforementioned Miss Amulet had won the G2 Lowther S.

Ringfort’s good year was enhanced further on Friday by the G2 Flying Childers S. victory of another of the farm’s graduates, Ubettabelieveit (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}).

As has already been noted in this column, Miss Amulet was sold for just €1,000 as a foal before being brought to Ascot by Rockview Stables, who sold her for £7,500.

The good updates on the track this year led to Ringfort consigning two of the top four lots at Ascot. The sale-topper at 58,000gns was a filly out of Sassy Gal (Ire) (King’s Best), a half-sister to the dam of Minzaal, while Miss Amulet’s half-sister by another freshman sire, El Kabeir, sold for 45,000gns to Nick and Michael Bell.

There’s likely to be plenty of traffic to the boxes holding the 22 yearlings for the Ringfort Stud consignments at Goffs Orby and Tattersalls October.

Advance Australia Fair
There were 28 group races across Britain, Ireland, France and Germany in the last week, with nine of them falling to the offspring of Galileo (Ire) or two of his lesser-heralded sons Australia (GB) and Noble Mission. In fact, the weekend has to be viewed as a successful one for dual Derby winner Australia, who was represented by his first Classic winner, Galileo Chrome (Ire), in the St Leger, while Cayenne Pepper (Ire) saw off her run of seconds this season with victory in the G2 Moyglare ‘Jewels’ Blandford S. for Jessica Harrington. The latter races for American owner Sarah Kelly, whose husband Jon died in July and was a great supporter of the British and Irish bloodstock scene over a number of years.

The Harrington stable also sent out a promising juvenile by Australia, Oodnadatta (Ire), to be third in the G1 Moyglare Stud S. The three-parts sister to G3 Glorious S. winner Pablo Escobarr (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) races for Australian co-owner/breeder Bob Scarborough in partnership with Susan Magnier. Melbourne-based Scarborough has played a significant role in the story of another Coolmore stallion as the breeder of 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) as well as his half-brother St Mark’s Basilica (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}), who was third in the G1 Goffs Vincent O’Brien National S. on Sunday. Their dam Cabaret (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) has a yearling full-brother to St Mark’s Basilica for sale through Norelands Stud in Book 1 of the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale.

Dreaming Of Autumn
Though the sun is still shining across much of Europe, there’s an autumnal chill to the mornings, which is good news for fans of Dream Ahead, as this appears to be the time of year for the 12-year-old stallion to shine. Last year his two Group 1 winners Glass Slippers (GB) and Donjuan Triumphant (Ire) came within weeks of each other at the Arc meeting and British Champions Day.

The 4-year-old Bearstone Stud homebred Glass Slippers found only Battaash too fast for her when second in the G2 King George S. at Goodwood and she bounced back to claim another international Group 1 win in Sunday’s Flying Five at the Curragh for Kevin Ryan, who reported that a return to Paris to defend her Prix de l’Abbaye title is very much on the cards. The filly’s win came just eight days after Dream Of Dreams (GB) landed the G1 Haydock Sprint Cup, while in Germany on Friday the hardy Dark Vision (Ire) gained his sixth victory, and second at Group 2 level, when winning the Kronimus Oettingen Rennen at Baden-Baden.

Having started his career at Ballylinch Stud, Dream Ahead has recently completed his third season at Haras de Grandcamp in Normandy. He remains in the ownership of his original syndicate, including Ballylinch, which is also enjoying a golden run with its Irish-based stallions. At the head of the roster, commanding a €100,000 service fee, is Lope De Vega (Ire), whose popularity extends beyond Europe to the southern hemisphere. He is also a stallion very much on the radar of American buyers following the success of his Grade 1-winning daughters Capla Temptress (Ire) and Newspaperofrecord (Ire), while another recent White Birch Farm purchase Editor At Large (Ire) was impressive in her debut at Saratoga last week.

Lope De Vega’s ten yearlings sold at the Arqana Select Sale returned an average of €226,500 and he appears to have another exciting juvenile on his books in Ireland in the form of G2 KPMG Champions Juvenile S. winner Cadillac (Ire). Yet another from the Harrington stable, the colt, bred by Sunderland Holdings, was a €40,000 Orby purchase by Patrick Cooper last year.

Lope De Vega’s younger stud-mates are also showing very promising signs. Make Believe (GB), with his first crop of 3-year-olds this year, has been represented by the Classic winner Mishriff (GB) as well as the G3 Musidora S. winner Rose Of Kildare (Ire), and is second in the second-crop sires’ table behind Night Of Thunder (Ire). Meanwhile freshman sire New Bay (GB), who boasts a near-50% strike-rate with his runners, notched a first stakes winner on Friday, New Mandate (Ire), in the listed Flying Scotsman S. at Doncaster.

Where Aigles Dare
The Duke of Devonshire’s memoir of his great mare Park Top carried the lovely title A Romance of the Turf, and it is one that could equally be applied to the story of Cirrus Des Aigles (Fr) and his trainer Corine Barande-Barbe.

An epilogue to the latter was started at Longchamp on Sunday when Air De Valse (Fr) became the first group winner for her late and little known sire Mesnil Des Aigles (Fr), a half-brother to Cirrus Des Aigles by the equally obscure stallion Neverneyev (Fr).

Barande-Barbe’s name is woven alongside a number of the names in the bottom half of the pedigree of Air De Valse, whom she bred, co-owns and trains. Sunday’s G3 Prix du Petit Couvert winner is from the largest crop of Mesnil Des Aigles, but that numbered just eight—precisely half the number of foals he left when he died in August 2015 at Haras de Saint Roch.

With her former husband Patrick Barbe, Barande-Barbe bred the filly’s dam Air Bag (Fr) (Poliglote {GB}), whom she trained to win four races in her own colours. She also trained Air Bag’s dam, Avrilana (Fr), a dual winner for Ecurie Muserolle, and that mare’s sire Deep Roots (Fr) was owned by Barande-Barbe and trained by Pascal Bary to win the G1 Prix Morny and G1 Prix de la Salamandre in only Bary’s second year with a training licence.

The front-running Air De Valse didn’t make her debut until last year as a 3-year-old and she has a long way to go to equal the 22 victories, including seven Group 1s, of her ‘uncle’ Cirrus Des Aigles. But she has already won seven of her 17 starts, and she will return to Longchamp for the G1 Qatar Prix de l’Abbaye on Oct. 4.

Her trainer described Air De Valse on Sunday by saying, “Like me, she’s a bit of a character.”

It would be folly to think that Air De Valse is not capable of taking the next step up to the top level. After all, all great stories need strong characters, and what better setting for a romantic tale than Paris?

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Ask Your Insurer Presented By Muirfield Insurance: What To Do When Shipping Your Horse To The Veterinary Clinic

Equine insurance experts answer your questions about insuring Thoroughbreds for the breeding and auction realms.

Email us at info@paulickreport. com if you have a question for an insurer.

QUESTION: In the event that my insured horse is being transported to the clinic for a procedure, what are my responsibilities as a policyholder? Are any veterinary expenses covered under my full mortality, or all-risk mortality policy?

BRYCE BURTON: The conditions of a full mortality insurance policy require that the underwriters are notified immediately should an insured animal become ill or injured. The underwriters must also be notified prior to any surgery being performed, unless the surgery is an emergency life-saving procedure. Notifying your agent and/or underwriter is mandatory at the earliest possible time.

The most efficient way to notify the underwriter is to contact your equine insurance agent so they can pass along the necessary information.

Most full mortality policies contain a free Emergency Colic Surgery Endorsement up to a $5,000 limit per occurrence on horses 91 days of age through 18 years, with no prior history of colic issues. Beyond the Emergency Colic Surgery Endorsement, either a Major Medical Endorsement, Surgical Endorsement, or Racehorse Surgical Endorsement would have to be in place in order to qualify for coverage of veterinary expenses. Please see the previous article regarding Major Medical coverage here.

QUESTION: What do I need to do in the event that my insured horse is in a life-threatening situation?

BRYCE BURTON: In the event that an insured horse is facing a life-threatening situation, the policyholder should call their agent immediately. It's always a good idea for an insured to have the agent's after-hours number saved so that it's accessible at all times.

It's also beneficial to have the horse's name, dam's name, age, attending veterinarian's contact, and care- taker's contact on hand for the agent. The agent will then reach out to an emergency adjuster, who will take over from there. The adjuster will need to speak directly to the vet and/or caretaker of the horse regarding the situation in order to ensure that everyone is on the same page with respect to the horse's health moving forward.

Bryce Burton is a property and liability specialist for Muirfield Insurance. He is from Frankfort, Ky., where
he grew up an avid race fan. His Thoroughbred racing fandom combined with a collegiate internship in the insurance industry, culminated in a start in the equine insurance field. Bryce has been with Muirfield Insurance since 2014, following his graduation from Transylvania University in Lexington.

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What The Shrinking Pool Of Equine Lending Can Tell Us About The Bloodstock Industry’s Present And Future

Even as the results rolled in from auctions trumpeting record returns over the past half-decade, it would be hard to find anyone to proclaim the current commercial Thoroughbred marketplace is the same one that reached the dizzying heights of the 1980s, or even the mid-2000s.

One of the clearest indicators of that fact is how drastically the amount of money that's currently out on equine loans has diminished, along with the number of banks that offer them. Though the market has clawed its way back since the crash of the late 2000s, the fact that there are only a small handful of banks left that offer equine loans suggest that segment of the marketplace has not filled out as much as it may seem.

“Lending against horseflesh is definitely down from 2008 and we are unlikely to see that level again,” said Peter Costich, who handles equine lending for Limestone Bank in Lexington, Ky. “Equine loans totaled around $1 billion at that time. We estimate today's total is less than half of that.”

Equine loans can be taken out in three major areas: Loans on the plant, which consists primarily of property loans on farms; loans on equipment, in this case the horses themselves; and loans on operation, with a scope that includes stud fees.

For many horsepeople in Central Kentucky, business doesn't get started without a loan, so lending activity can provide a forecast of what the coming few years of industry activity might look like.

In the short term, the global economy is still trying to figure itself out due to COVID-19, and the racing industry will have some hard questions to ask about its business model if fans – and their live handle – remain out of the grandstands for an extended period of time. Despite this, equine lending activity has rolled on almost unchanged in 2020.

The long-range forecast paints a different picture. Though the uncertainties surrounding COVID-19 may not have immediately affected the bloodstock economy in terms of loan money taken out, Bob Feenick of Farmers National Bank said the ever-polarizing returns of recent years have threatened to catch up with the industry, and market instability elsewhere in the Thoroughbred business and the world at large, might speed up that chase.

“The last few years, we've seen the polarization in the marketplace – a supply and demand problem is what I call it – and how it sorts itself out,” he said. “I think the target for my customers has been getting narrower for the last few years. Even though the numbers get higher, the cost behind it gets higher and the people participating in those good returns has gotten narrower.”

This is important on two fronts. First, the potential clash between supply and demand comes at a time when the North American foal crop is at its lowest point since the 1960s. When the downturn of the late 1980s occurred, the foal crop was at record highs of over 50,000 per year. During the market crash of the late 2000s, that number was still around 30,000. Today, the North American foal crop will be hard-pressed to reach 20,000.

There are fewer foals being born, and in turn, fewer players in the game needing loans to get their initiatives off the ground. Because that group is smaller, Costich said the number of banks devoting resources to equine lending has also withered.

“I would attribute this to banks no longer having expertise in the business,” he said. “The larger institutions are less willing to invest the time and resources equine lending requires. Over time, for one reason or another, they've exited the business.

Second, the polarizing marketplace has made commercial Thoroughbred breeding more of a “high-risk, high-reward” endeavor than ever. Record averages have driven up stud fees, which then require the ensuing foals to meet or exceed those lofty initial price tags to cover costs or profit.

Because the target has gotten smaller to make money in the commercial market, much less pay off loans, Feenick said Farmers has concentrated on shorter-term loans over the past few years, and lending on smaller percentages of value to lower the risk of default by the borrower.

“Our parameters usually have been pretty much the industry standard that we'll lend up to 50 percent on value,” he said. “I'll tell you if I have anybody that's up near that right now, they'll probably come up short, come fall.

“I'm hoping that we've been vigilant enough in that area, and my clients have worked with me, that they should be able to come with Plans B and C, should the market come up with a significant change,” Feenick continued.

If the market were on an upward trend, and demand were still catching up with the supply, as it was in 2012 and 2013, Feenick said he would not be as concerned about the commercial breeding industry weathering a potential blow like COVID-19 and all of its complications. However, in a market already teetering on over-cost and overproduction, it might be tougher to find buyers at the price one hoped for beyond the chosen few.

Feenick said the long-term nature of the Thoroughbred breeding market means it'll be a slow ship to turn around, as it has been in the past.

“The market will always over-correct,” he said. “We can't correct the market in production and stud fee for another three years, no matter what happens in September. If the market starts to climb back up after that, the next couple crops are going to be cheaper and smaller. It will always over-correct because it has to predict three years out when it comes to breeding. If the market starts to climb up, production and cost are going to take a few years to catch up, and that's where we've been the last couple years – production and costs have caught up.”

No matter what happens this year, the next, or beyond, the market has always been cyclical by nature. Both Feenick and Costich said the operations that stick around are the ones that prepare themselves for the drought when it's raining.

“We've seen our share of sales toppers as well as disappointments, which helps us avoid overreacting to any one particular sale or year,” Costich said. “COVID-19 is simply one of those variables that no one saw coming. The solid operators figured out how to manage their unique set of circumstances and are making their way through it.”

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