Then again…

Just seven days after the Florida Derby, Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) turned in a special performance of his own in the GI Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. He didn't win by 13 1/2 lengths. The margin was just 1 1 /2 lengths. He didn't get a triple digit Beyer. It was a 98. It was a very different race than the one turned in by Fierceness but was every bit as special, maybe even more so.

His story really begins at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. The Coolmore team and Peter Brant have a sharp eye for talent and it looks like this was a horse they had to have. They paid $2.3 million for him, which made him the sale topper. With Brant involved, the horse was sent to his main trainer, Chad Brown.

He broke his maiden in November at Aqueduct and came back in the GII Remsen, where he staged an epic duel with Dornoch (Good Magic). He lost by a nose but Dornoch was hugging the rail on a day where the inside was the place to be.

Sierra Leone kicked off his 3-year-old season winning the GII Risen Star S. at the Fair Grounds. Catching Freedom (Constitution), who was third, went on to win the GII Louisiana Derby. Resilience (Into Mischief) was fourth in the Risen Star and came back in his next start to win the GII Wood Memorial.

But it was the Blue Grass where Sierra Leone really showed how special he is. He acted up prior to the start and delayed the race. That's oftentimes a kiss of death, but it proved not to be a problem. With Tyler Gaffalione aboard he dropped back to ninth in the ten-horse field before launching his bid. Midway on the turn, he still had to get past six horses, which wasn't any sort problem. He came with monstrous, ground gobbling strides and flew past Just a Touch (Justify) to win going away. He ran like a horse who should love the mile-and-quarter and one who has yet to peak.

“We're just trying to maintain pretty much the way he's been his whole life, a special horse,” said Brown, who is 0-for-7 in the Derby. “I don't know if they ever fully figure it out, but he's  only had a handful of starts.”

So this was a race where Sierra Leone had to fight and show what he is capable of. He also beat some top quality horses in Just A Touch and GII Fountain of Youth winner Dornoch, who was fourth.

That wasn't at all the case for Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Perfectly ridden by Hall of Famer John Velazquez, he was wisely taken to the lead and Velazquez was able to slow the pace down. Fierceness was in front the whole way while posting tepid fractions. He went the first quarter in 24.06, the half in 47.50 and the three quarters In 1:11.31. No one was ever going to catch him with the trip he was able to work out. And to make matters even easier on him, neither of his top two challengers fired. Conquest Warrior (City of Light) was fourth, beaten 16 lengths. Hades (Awesome Slew), the GIII Holy Bull S. winner, was even worse, finishing fifth, beaten 19 3/4 lengths. Catalytic (Catalina Cruiser), a 29-1 shot, was second and 21-1 shot Grand Mo the First (Uncle Mo) was third. Both will be among the longest shots on the board in the Kentucky Derby.

Then there is Fierceness's erratic nature. He runs well every other start and seems unable to overcome any adversity. In the Derby, with 20 horses, he's never going to get a clear, uncontested lead and a slow pace and probably, at some point will encounter some trouble. It's a very hard race in which to get a trouble-free trip.

When it comes to Fierceness-versus-Sierra Leone, the deciding factor could be the pace. As strong a late kick as he has, Sierra Leone still doesn't want to be 19^th in the Derby with someone, maybe Fierceness, setting slow fractions. If Fierceness can get loose on the lead he can absolutely win, Just don't expect that to happen in a 20-horse race where there is usually a pretty quick pace.

Even without Bob Baffert's participation, this looks like a deep, Derby field with a lot of quality. Can Fierceness win? Despite his tendency to throw in bad races, absolutely. But he's going to have to beat Sierra Leone and so will 18 other horses. He's the horse to beat.

Post Time is on a Roll

The GII Carter at Aqueduct has seen better days. Once one of the most important sprint races on the calendar, it was downgraded to a Grade II for this year and the race attracted all of four horses. But the winner was notable.

Even with the small field, this was the biggest test to date for the Brittany Russell-trained Post Time (Frosted). He came into the race with seven wins from eight career starts but some were arguing that he was just beating up on inferior competition in Maryland. His lone defeat had come in the Perryville S. at Keeneland, the only time he had run outside of Maryland.

As expected, Super Chow (Lord Nelson) got off to an uncontested lead and was allowed to set easy fractions. He went in 24.38 and 48.18 and Post Time was last. He then got carried out to the middle of the track by Super Chow, who has a bad habit of bearing out in the stretch. Despite all that, he was able to get the win, beating Castle Chaos (Palace Music) by a neck.

With Elite Power (Curlin) and Gunite (Gun Runner) both having been retired, Post Time could be on his way to an Eclipse Award.

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'TDN Rising Star' Muth (Good Magic) swatted back a surprise mid-race attack to win authoritatively at Oaklawn. Fellow 'Rising Star' and juvenile champ Fierceness (City of Light) administered a 13 1/2-length shellacking at Gulfstream that resounds as the largest winning margin in Florida Derby history. And at Meydan in Dubai, the undefeated Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) ran his record to 5-for-5, fusing impressive quickness with staunch staying power despite giving up substantial ground on a track slanted in favor of rail runners.

While it's on to Louisville for the latter two, we've known for months that the corporate powers at Churchill Downs have disinvited Bob Baffert's trainees from their 150th Derby bash, so Muth won't be joining Fierceness and Forever Young in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

Thus the reference to the emotional lyrics belted out by his Loafness, the late, larger-than-life 1970s rock balladeer: “Don't be sad–'cause two outta three ain't bad.”

There will be no Derby rematch of Fierceness and Muth, the one-two finishers in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Nor will we witness the fascinating hookup of the three most talented tactical speed horses among a projected field of sophomores that, to this point, has been top-heavy with closers and midpack stalkers.

So be it. The Derby isn't the only jewel in the Triple Crown. Fierceness and Forever Young are ready for prime time right now. Muth will be fresh, fit and dangerous for the GI Preakness S. in Baltimore or the GI Belmont S. at Saratoga. Perhaps both, if we're lucky.

What stood out about Muth's tally in the Arkansas Derby was how economically he doled out his speed when confronted with two disruptive attempts to ratchet up the tempo. Off as the 2.3-1 second choice, Muth broke running under Juan Hernandez, then backed off the action when a 26-1 sacrificial pacemaker slipped up the rail.

Hernandez appeared content to settle into a prime stalking spot. But just before the field cornered onto the back straight, Flavien Prat unexpectedly knifed 11-10 favorite Timberlake  (Into Mischief) between rivals at the 6 1/2-furlong pole.

Hernandez didn't want Timberlake to obtain too big a margin unchallenged, and he quickened Muth for a few strides before sensing he could let Timberlake keep a half-length lead for most of the backstretch run.

Then, starting 3 1/2 furlongs out, Muth gradually ramped up the pressure under his own power. Hernandez cut him loose turning for home.

This was a move Timberlake simply could not match, and the visual of Muth opening up under a hand ride at the head of the lane while Timberlake was being scrubbed on to eventually hold fourth told the story of the race. Muth held off the persistent 32-1 shot Just Steel (Justify) by two lengths under the wire, and it was another 4 1/2 lengths back to everyone else in a scattered field of also-rans.

Fierceness's ransack win in the Florida Derby under jockey John Velazquez was easily the gaudiest performance of the three March 30 stakes. Yet despite the blowout nature of the victory, it was also the most difficult to quantify.

With a win-every-other-race record through five starts, Fierceness's crushing of a soft-on-paper field on Saturday reaffirmed his status as an A-list sophomore when he's on his game. But still, controlling a measured cadence without having to repulse any serious bids did nothing for this Todd Pletcher trainee's reputation for not being able to deliver the goods when up against the grain of adversity.

At age two, Fierceness won his Saratoga debut by 11 1/4 lengths in the slop, then got drilled by 20 1/4 lengths as the odds-on favorite in the sloppy GI Champagne S. Bettors let him go at 16-1 in the Breeders' Cup, and he responded with a 6 1/4-length win that appeared more polished. Yet his unveiling at age three was a flat third at 1-5 odds in the slow-paced GIII Holy Bull S., and he needed an over-the-top effort in the Florida Derby simply from a momentum perspective.

The Kentucky Derby will now be the put-up-or-shut-up race that tells us what Fierceness is truly made of. Whether you plan to bet on him or against him, the story arc has been written appealingly, purely from an entertainment point of view.

If the UAE Derby previously didn't register on your handicapping radar as a pipeline for legit Kentucky Derby contenders, you are forgiven considering the out-of-their league cumulative record of the horses who have attempted that double.

Since 2000, 13 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish among them was sixth (accomplished twice), along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try.

Forever Young might be the colt with the best potential to flip that script. Sent for speed from a wide draw over 1900 meters on Saturday, he was responsive to cues to quicken from jockey Ryusei Sakai. Parked four wide through the first turn, Forever Young eased back and settled into a nice stride while fifth onto the backstretch while remaining wide to avoid kickback.

He stayed in about the four path around the final bend while torqueing into a higher gear, then this Yoshito Yahagi trainee dug in down the home straight with an all-out effort that had him inhaling the pacemaker, drawing away and striding out confidently.

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This 3-for-3 son of 2016 Derby winner Nyquist from trainer Bob Baffert's barn has now won at six, seven and eight furlongs by a combined 26 3/4 lengths while earning upward-trending Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 97 (at age two), plus a sizzling 105 for his sophomore debut.

In addition to those impressive metrics, this Baoma Corporation (Susan and Charles Chu) colorbearer has displayed an on-track flair and a powerful fluidity that not only passes the eye test, but dwarfs the visual aesthetics of any efforts we've seen from his next-closest competitors on the Triple Crown trail.

All this, by the way, from a colt who won't reach his actual third birthdate until four days after this year's Derby.

Nysos's 7 1/2-length blowout in the Lewis overwhelmingly whets the appetite for what he'll be capable of delivering in subsequent starts. But like it or not, it's impossible to look too far into the future without coupling this colt's potential for brilliance with last week's news that no top sophomores out of Baffert's stable were transferred to other conditioners in time to meet a Jan. 29 deadline imposed by Churchill Downs, Inc. (CDI). Such a move would have allowed those horses to earn Derby qualifying points and compete in the 150th edition of the race.

After Medina Spirit (Protonico) tested positive for the medication betamethasone following the 2021 Derby, CDI banned Baffert from its tracks. The corporate suspension was separate from Medina Spirit's Derby disqualification and a fine and suspension imposed upon Baffert by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission.

CDI's exclusion initially was supposed to last only for two years. But on July 3, 2023, the corporation announced it would be extending the ban through at least 2024, citing “continued concerns regarding the threat to the safety and integrity of racing [Baffert] poses to CDI-owned racetracks” by allegedly “continu[ing] to peddle a false narrative concerning the failed drug test of Medina Spirit.”

The timing of that announcement was curious, and for the most part unexpected. Reading between the lines, it almost seemed like CDI executives suddenly realized that Baffert's return would coincide with the big 150th anniversary celebration the corporation is planning for the 2024 Derby, and that they didn't want his presence to overshadow the festivities.

The press release announcing Baffert's extended ban was rolled out in the middle of last summer's long Independence Day weekend. Holiday weekends are an extremely slow time of the news cycle that news-issuing entities have long tried to leverage as opportunities to “bury” announcements they think might generate adverse headlines.

The racing world took notice though, and the news of Baffert's dis-invitation to Derby 150 simmered through last summer and deep into the Breeders' Cup season.

On Jan. 22, 2024, the script was flipped when Baffert made his own announcement via social media: The Hall-of-Fame trainer said he had instructed his attorneys to dismiss any remaining legal actions related to the 2021 Derby disqualification appeal, adding that he has “decided that it is best to positively focus on the present and future that our great sport offers.”

As TDN colleague Bill Finley wrote at the time, “It was not clear why [Medina Spirit's owner, Amr] Zedan and Baffert apparently changed their minds and decided to drop their case. It is possible that their dropping the case was a peace offering in what has been an ugly battle between Churchill Downs and Zedan and Baffert that at times took on a personal tone.”

CDI stood firm, countering with an immediate rebuttal that stated Baffert's dismissal of his appeal “does not change the current suspension or deadline to transfer horses for the upcoming 150th Kentucky Derby.”

One week later, as the Jan. 29 owners deadline to transfer horses to another trainer came and went without a single reported defection among Baffert's top clients, the narrative shifted substantially.

Now CDI's anti-Baffert strategy could backfire. The corporation is facing the prospect of Baffert appearing to have offered an olive branch, his owners lining up behind him in solidarity and his top 3-year-old rocketing to the top of the totem pole among Derby contenders. The very story line that CDI wanted to avoid for Derby 150 will now likely become the focal point of pre-Triple Crown coverage.

For the next three months, you can expect an ever-intensifying stream of stories about the prospect of another “Dysfunctional Derby” in which a corporate edict might keep the best colt(s) from competing in America's most important horse race.

In the last five editions of the Derby, we've seen one DQ of a winner for an in-race foul, another for a post-race drug violation, and one Derby moved from May to September because of the pandemic. At this rate, we'll soon run out of asterisks to affix to the history of our nation's most iconic race.

Despite not budging from Baffert, some of his clients are still holding out hope for a change in CDI's policy. Zedan, who owns 'TDN Rising Star' Muth (Good Magic), another top sophomore, is one of them.

“Would we love to run in the Derby? Absolutely, yes,” Zedan told DRF.com's David Grening last week. “Would we love to run, especially this being the 150th Derby? Absolutely, yes. Are we hoping to run in the Derby? Absolutely, yes. Do we think we will be there? It's in God's hands.”

Barring the unlikely prospect of CDI reversing its stated course, the courts–again–are another option.

Even though Baffert in '22 and '23 failed to persuade judges to grant him injunctions that would have allowed him to compete in the Derby, and even though he has dropped his current legal appeal, that doesn't preclude any of his clients from going to court on their own to try and overturn CDI's ban on behalf of their horses.

Remember, it only takes one judge to say yes to an injunction request, and the closer any potential plaintiff waits until the May 4 Derby itself, the more of a wild card that scenario becomes from “time is of the essence” type of pressure.

Our nation's courts typically listen long and hard when properly licensed individuals allege that private entities are unfairly keeping them from plying their chosen professions, so it's not out of the question that some aggrieved owner of a Baffert-trained Derby prospect might try that avenue.

Even more fascinating is what to expect in terms of race targeting from Baffert's stable. Will he point his top sophomores to the final late March/early April round of coast-to-coast Grade I preps and then have an arsenal of top-notch stock ready for the GI Preakness S. after being forced to sit out the Derby with all of them?

The Preakness has been the weak link in the Triple Crown over the past few seasons, and would certainly benefit from the infusion of horsepower.

But this scenario, too, could produce unwanted downstream effects. The Preakness already has trouble luring any other Derby entrants besides the winner. How many also-rans from the Derby are going to be keen on heading to Baltimore knowing a handful of fresh Baffert trainees have been specifically pointing for the middle jewel of the series?

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But since the press release from the New York governor's office came out during a slow time of the year for racing news, it rekindled speculation about the ramifications of tinkering with the historical significance of the third jewel of the Triple Crown.

The debate is healthy. It means fans care.

But the racing world isn't about to tilt off its axis because of changes that will probably end up making the best of an unavoidable, temporary transition.

Cutting back the 1 1/2 miles “Test of a Champion” distance of the Belmont S. to 1 1/4 miles generated the most outcry.

The feasibility of moving the four-day (Thursday-Sunday) Belmont S. festival upstate for one long weekend June 6-9 instead of just running it at Aqueduct Racetrack was a distant second in the discussion.

And although it was not specifically addressed in the official release, the expectation is that the Belmont Park construction will extend through 2025, meaning that the site and distance switch figures to be in play for at least the next two runnings of the Belmont S.

The purse of the race will also be getting a boost, from $1.5 million to $2 million.

The last time Belmont Park was closed for a major facelift, from 1963-1967, the Belmont S. got shifted to Aqueduct, which accommodated the 1 1/2 miles distance without incident by starting the race on the far turn at the three-eighths pole.

Since both Saratoga and Aqueduct feature nine-furlong main-track ovals, that would be the start point for any 1 1/2 miles dirt race at either venue (without resorting to an alternate finish line).

It would be an awkward (but not impossible) configuration to attempt, so NYRA has opted for the two-furlong cutback.

To some racing enthusiasts, that's absolute heresy that will sully the Triple Crown with asterisks if a horse manages to sweep the series at the truncated Belmont S. distance.

Others are simply shrugging their shoulders and accepting the short-term trim as a historical aberration, noting that over the past century and a half, there have been a number of tweaks to the distances, order, time spacing, and venues of all the Triple Crown races.

With that in mind, maybe the best outcomes to root for in 2024-25 are close, competitive editions of the Belmont S. with no one horse sweeping the series.

One longer-term concern about the distance switch is that horse owners and trainers might end up liking the 10-furlong Belmont S. so much that they'll push for the change to become permanent under the argument that it better suits modern-day Thoroughbreds who are bred for speed rather than stamina.

If the 1 1/4-mile runnings of the race end up luring large fields, this theory could have some legs.

But it would be difficult to imagine NYRA officials wanting to unveil the brand-new Belmont Park in 2026 by starting its showcase race in another awkward spot, this time on the first turn. That's where the few main-track races carded at 10 furlongs must begin over Belmont's 1 1/2-mile circumference.

As to the wisdom of choosing Saratoga over Aqueduct, the question comes down to location, location, location.

And context.

Yes, the logistics of running the Belmont S. at Aqueduct would be far easier than moving the meet (and a small army of backstretch workers and track employees) upstate for just four days. Remember, after the Belmont-at-Saratoga mini-meet, racing is to return downstate to Aqueduct for another month before then coming back to the Spa July 11 for the traditional 40-day summer season.

You could maybe make a minor case for wanting to give utilitarian Aqueduct a fitting send-off salute by allowing it to host a Triple Crown race for two years before the property likely gets sold and repurposed (all of NYRA's downstate racing and training is envisioned to get consolidated at Belmont Park after the construction project is complete). If it worked in the 1960s, why not the 2020s?

Recall that at the time of the last Belmont Park rehab 60 years ago, Aqueduct had just undergone its own three-year renovation (completed in 1959) and was being hailed as “the world's most modern and luxurious horse plant,” as per the Associated Press.

And in 1963, Saratoga was still a relatively sleepy hamlet that hosted seasonal racing for only a few weeks each summer. So moving the Belmont S. there would have been considered an unlikely (even absurd) proposition the last time this type of venue switch had to be considered.

Now fast-forward six decades: Aqueduct has long since been retrofitted from a primary racing plant to a full-blown racino with not enough seating or trackside amenities to accommodate the 50,000 attendance cap for the Belmont S.

And Saratoga? Its stature and infrastructure have both blossomed in the other direction, with numerous “premium seating” renovations added over the past few years to more readily accommodate the hospitality needs of a special event like a four-day weekend.

Saratoga has undergone numerous renovations and new builds | Sarah Andrew

Plus, simply from a cachet standpoint, the racing-centric, tourism-ready, boutique atmosphere in upstate Saratoga provides an exclamation point that workmanlike Aqueduct in Queens could never match.

Yet the move is not completely without drawbacks. There will be legitimate gripes about another major racing event being pushed farther out of the grasp of the everyday horseplayer who wants to see important stakes in person.

Remember how-for decades-racing used to promote itself as the only sport in America where admissions were kept at the same price point for blockbuster events as they were for regular, run-of-the-mill, weekday afternoons?

That marketing mantra slid of the grid many years ago. If you remember that type of sloganeering at all, you probably also recall how pay telephones were once strictly verboten at tracks (to keep race results out of the hands of bookies), or how the racing industry used to boast that it was the highest-attended spectator sport in the nation.

Mike MacAdam, writing for the Daily Gazette in upstate New York, pointed out in a Friday article how tickets for the Belmont-at-Saratoga meet, which are expected to go on sale in mid-February, will be largely limited to four-day packaged seating options, with early-access first dibs going to box-seat holders from both Belmont and Saratoga, plus Saratoga reserved season ticket holders and past Belmont S. package purchasers.

“So, for the most part, you won't be able to get single-day seating,” MacAdam wrote.

Noting that pricing and policies have yet to be announced publicly, MacAdam also speculated that Saratoga's fan-friendly carry-in cooler rule could change for the Belmont S. weekend.

“NYRA hasn't announced yet whether fans will be allowed to bring in their own food and beverages,” MacAdam wrote in the Daily Gazette. “It's worth noting that they don't allow outside alcohol on Belmont Day.”

Hotel rooms for the June 6-9 period are going, going, gone, according to news reports by several different upstate New York media outlets.

The Daily Gazette reported in a separate story by Shenandoah Briere last Wednesday that Saratoga hotel rooms at Embassy Suites that had been advertised at $285 to $335 a night prior to the governor's announcement about the Belmont S. quickly got bloated by supply and demand to up over $1,100 per night.

On Sunday, a TDN check of lodging availability at the higher-end Adelphi Hotel yielded Friday and Saturday rates listed for as high as $4,022 per night, with a three-night minimum stay in effect.

There is no word yet on how much a spot on someone's spare couch in one of the outlying towns in the Saratoga region might cost you, but we'll keep you posted over the long winter between now and the sure-to-be-unique, first-ever Belmont-at-Spa fest.

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But neither the Breeders' Cup blanking nor the Derby banishment should be taken as indications that the Hall-of-Fame conditioner is running low on horsepower, particularly in the 2-year-old division.

A pair of Baffert juveniles on the first two days of the Del Mar meeting this past weekend underscored that his stable will continue to churn out a deep rotation of Triple Crown aspirants, although it remains to be seen how they might arrive at the first of the spring Classics, whether in the form of a switch to another conditioner, or under Baffert's own name if and when another court fight against CDI materializes.

Second-time starter Coach Prime (Quality Road) caught the eye and earned 'TDN Rising Star' status with a 7 1/4-length blowout victory over a mile Nov. 10. The $1.7-million KEESEP colt for Zedan Racing Stables was pinballed at the break from post nine, but the 7-5 favorite settled into a comfortable midpack stalking spot while three wide through the clubhouse turn behind quick opening fractions of :21.44 and :44.94.

Flavien Prat guided Coach Prime to within two lengths of the lead while on the inside a half-mile from home, and the colt continued “on hold” while waiting for running room as multiple pace-pressers took turns chipping at the lead. He shifted out to the three path at the quarter pole, just before a wall of four at the front split into two turning for home, and Coach Prime sliced on through between them while still in hand.

Beyond a single crack of the crop after cresting the eighth pole unopposed, Prat largely hand-rode Coach Prime through the final furlong. The 1:37.18 final clocking and low-looking 75 Beyer Speed Figure can be chalked up as artifacts of this colt not nearing full extension and being geared down in the late stages.

Stablemate Pilot Commander (Justify), a $145,000 KEEJAN RNA and a $700,000 OBSMAR buy for CSLR Racing Partners, impressed with a debut six-furlong win at 13-10 odds under Juan Hernandez the following afternoon.

This Baffert trainee shot straight to the front, conceded the lead to an inside challenger a half-mile out, reclaimed it with ease a furlong later, edged away at the top of the stretch, and successfully repulsed a challenge from the third-favorite in the betting while building his winning margin to 2 1/4 lengths in 1:09.82. Pilot Commander's Beyer fig was not yet available at deadline for this column.

Juvy Jock Streak Stopped At 13…

The target at the top of the totem pole for the 2024 Derby, is, of course, 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness (City of Light), who trounced the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile field by 6 1/4 lengths en route to a 105 Beyer victory.

In the six months between now and the first Saturday in May, prepare to be frequently reminded how poor a metric winning the 1 1/16-miles championship race for 2-year-olds is in predicting prowess at age three going 10 furlongs.

Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Kentucky Derby wins from 39 runnings (Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016).

Second- and third-place Juvenile horses don't fare much better. Those 78 horses have produced just two Derby victories, by Alysheba (third in the 1986 Juvenile) and Spend A Buck (third in the 1984 Juvenile).

Oddly enough, another “drought” type of streak in the Juvenile–this one relating to jockeys–was snapped when John Velazquez scored aboard Fierceness in this year's edition.

Dating to 2010, when Velazquez last won the Juvenile aboard Uncle Mo, 13 different riders had taken turns winning the championship dirt race for 2-year-old males. Of all the Breeders' Cup races, that was the longest such active streak of different jockeys winning without a rider repeating in the sequence.

You'd have to be a true trivia wizard to recount the complete list from memory. Following Velazquez in 2010, the winning Juvenile jockeys were, in order, Ramon Dominguez, Rosie Napravnik, Martin Garcia, Kent Desormeaux, Mario Gutierrez, Julien Leparoux, Jose Ortiz, Joel Rosario, Flavien Prat, Luis Saez, Mike Smith and Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Bravo Homecoming

Joe Bravo has switched his tack back to Florida after being based in Southern California the past several seasons. It's a homecoming in terms of where the 52-year-old veteran first started riding (at Calder Race Course in 1988), and also in terms of the house Bravo owns in Ft. Lauderdale.

“I loved racing in California,” Bravo told the Del Mar notes team. “I was really grateful to be around some good people, but I just got a little homesick and wanted to come back and be closer to my family.”

After stints at Calder and Philadelphia Park, Bravo made his mark for 30-plus years as “Jersey Joe,” dominating the standings at Monmouth Park and the Meadowlands. He generally rode at Gulfstream Park during the winter months when New Jersey racing went dark for the season.

“I've been away from family and friends I grew up with my whole life and that was behind the decision as a whole,” Bravo said. “I just hope everyone understands it's more of a personal than a business decision. I might regret it. I might be thankful.”

That “Whatever will be, will be,” attitude was evident–quite literally–in Bravo's second mount back at Gulfstream.

That's because Bravo won the third race Sunday aboard Whateverwilbewilbe (Tapiture), a second-time starter who paid $13.80 to win.

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Up to the Mark: A+

It had been a depressing year for North American-based turf horses, who lost race after race to European shippers, including some whose credentials were rather modest. Saturday's GI Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland looked like it might be a case of more of the same as the favorite was the Charles Appleby-trained Master of The Seas (Dubawi {Ire}), who was coming off an impressive in the GI Woodbine Mile S. But in Up to the Mark (Not This Time), he was facing the best turf horse in the U.S. Had he been able to beat him handily that would have reaffirmed the message that the European turf horses are light years ahead of the ones based in the U.S. and that the Breeders' Cup turf races would certainly be dominated by shippers from the other side of the Atlantic. It was hardly a dominant performance as Up to the Mark beat Master of The Seas by a nose, but it showed that our very best turf horses can compete with Europe's best. This was the third straight Grade I win for Up to the Mark. If the GI Breeders' Cup Classic is won by an outsider and if Up to the Mark wins his Breeders' Cup race he could be Horse of the Year.

Muth: A

Muth (Good Magic), a $2 million purchase at the OBS March sale, didn't beat the toughest group of horses in Saturday's GI American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita, but the way he pulled off the victory was impressive and bodes well for his future. In his first two starts, he looked a lot like a precocious, fast horse who would fit best in sprint races. In the mile-and-a-sixteenth American Pharoah, he was relaxed and settled into fourth before launching his bid at the top of the stretch. If Muth is that good, how good is his stablemate, Prince of Monaco (Speightstown)? He beat him decisively when winning the GIII Best Pal S by 4 1/4 lengths.

Idiomatic: A

Yes, Idiomatic (Curlin) had a dream trip in the GI Spinster S. Sunday at Keeneland. And that's the only reason she doesn't get an A +. Florent Geroux managed to get her to the front by 1 1/2 lengths after an opening quarter was run in 24.49. At that point, the race was already over. The lineup that awaits her in the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff is tough one, but after the Spinster Idiomatic has to be considered the one to beat. She's won four straight, all stakes and two Grade I's in a row.

Gina Romantica: A-

All that stands between an undefeated season for the Chad Brown-trained In Italian (GB) is Chad Brown. For the second straight race, In Italian went off as a heavy favorite in the GI First Lady S. at Keeneland only to be beaten by a stablemate. This time it was Gina Romantica (Into Mischief). She nailed In Italian by a head at the wire, not an easy thing to do considering that In Italian got the trip she needs, controlling the pace. This race came out of nowhere for Gina Romantica, who increased her best lifetime Beyer by 13 points, from a 92 to a 105. But if she can duplicate the effort in the Breeders' Cup she'll be a horse to watch.

War Like Goddess: A-

What a cool horse. War Like Goddess (English Channel) beat the boys for the second straight year in the GI Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational at Aqueduct. She RNA'd for $1,000 at the 2018 Keeneland September sale before selling for $30,000 the following year at OBS June. She's now earned $2,495,184 and has won three Grade I's. The competition will get tougher in the GI Breeders' Cup Turf, but this was one of the better efforts of her career and showed that she's still at the top of her game at age 6 and more than capable of beating males.

Didia: A-

Few horses have flown under the radar more this year than Didia (Arg) (Orpen). Since arriving here last year from Argentina, she had been beaten only once in five tries and that was when she couldn't catch a loose on the lead Marketsegmentation (American Pharaoh) in the GI New York S. Trainer Ignacio Correas IV gave her four months off after that race and brought her back for Saturday's GII Rodeo Drive S. at Santa Anita. Facing a tough foe in the 3-year-old Anisette (GB) (Atwaad {Ire}), who was undefeated in three U.S. starts, she proved to be clearly the better of the two, winning by 1 3/4 lengths. Correas may not be a household name in the U.S., but he proved what he can do when he won the 2019 GI Breeders' Cup Distaff with Blue Prize (Arg) (Pure Prize).

Locked: B+

At first glance, the win by Locked Gun Runner) in the GI Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland doesn't look that impressive. As the 3-5 favorite, he won by just a half length and had to survive a stiff stretch battle from The Wine Steward (Vino Rosso). His Beyer was an 87, a drop off of nine points from his last race. But, breaking from the eight post, he was wide on both turns and lost a ton of ground while The Wine Steward was never more than two paths off the rail.

Timberlake: B+

Brad Cox had Timberlake (Into Mischief) entered in both the GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct and the GI Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland and it certainly looks like he made the right call sending the 2-year-old to New York for the Champagne. He was last seen running second in the GI Hopeful S., where the winner, Nutella Fella (Runhappy) got a Beyer figure of only 72. But with Timberlake winning the Champagne by 4 1/4 lengths, that race looks a lot better now. Timberlake probably won't be any better than the fouth choice in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but he proved in the Champagne that he belongs.

Nations Pride: B

No, Charles Appleby isn't perfect. The first three horses he ran over the weekend all got beat. That meant that Nations Pride (Ire) (Teofilio {Ire]) was his last hope. Sent to Woodbine for Sunday's GI Canadian International S., he came through with a 2 1/4-length win as the 2-5 favorite. He'll now return to the GI Breeders' Cup Turf, where he finished fifth last year at the 5-2 favorite. Didn't beat much in this race, thus his grade.

In Italian: C

In Italian didn't run terribly in the First Lady when beaten by stablemate Gina Romantica, but that's two straight races she has lost as an odds favorite in which she had no real excuse.

Nest: C-

When Nest (Curlin) kicked off her 2023 campaign with a 2 1/4-length win over Clairiere in the GII Shuvee S. it looked like she was well on her way to a possible Eclipse Award. Nothing has gone right since. She was third in the GI Personal Ensign S. and followed that up with a fourth-place finish in the Spinster in which she was beaten 11 /4 lengths. A terrific filly who, for whatever reason, didn't have it in her last two starts.

Rebel's Romance: D

Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) won last year's Breeders' Cup Turf, but nothing has gone right for him since. He returned to New York for the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic after clipping heels and losing his rider in the GII Bowling Green S. Sent off at 1-2, he showed nothing, finishing fourth.

Fierceness: Incomplete

Considered one of the most impressive maiden winners at Saratoga, where he won by 11 1/4 lengths in the slop, Fierceness (City of Light) was pounded down to 1-2 in the Champagne. This time he didn't show up, losing by 20 1/4 lengths. He had all sorts of problems at the start, where be lunged and then got bumped, and maybe that explains the poor performance. We'll probably see him next at Gulfstream, where he'll have every chance to regroup.

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The 4-year-old led at every call (101 Beyer Speed Figure) in a “Win and You're In” chance for the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, and this year that nine-furlong prep carries extra emphasis because it was run over the same Santa Anita Park surface that will host the Breeders' Cup championships Nov. 3-4.

“He's becoming better with age. You can see it on his record. His last few races he's just given us his all. Right now, he's fit, he's ready to run in the Breeders' Cup,” Gutierrez said.

Slow Down Andy's win also shifts the balance of power in the Classic division ever so slightly more toward the Left Coast.

A pair of Grade I-winning sophomores, 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo) and Geaux Rocket Ride (Candy Ride {Arg}), the one-two finishers from the GI Pacific Classic (in which Slow Down Andy ran third), already call Santa Anita home. And even though their campaigns this year were not based in California, two other top Classic contenders-the GI Belmont S. and GI Travers S. winner Arcangelo (Arrogate) and MGISW White Abarrio (Race Day)-have already shipped to Santa Anita well in advance of other Eastern-based divisional rivals.

Winning a race over the track theoretically should have a little more significance for Slow Down Andy. But the obvious question moving forward for him (and other possible Breeders' Cup starters who raced on the Sept. 30 Santa Anita card) is whether or not the “wet-fast” main track from that afternoon will be a useful barometer in trying to prognosticate the championships.

Friday's opening day at Santa Anita produced fairly uniform results on a dirt surface labeled “fast.” Of four main-track races, one was won in wire-to-wire fashion, one by a speed horse who pressed the pace, one by a stalker, and one by an off-pace closer.

Rain prior to Saturday produced the wet-fast designation. In eight main track races, four horses wired their fields and four others scored by forcing the issue close up to the frontrunners. Stalkers and closers got completely shut out.

More Than…Impressive

While a triple-digit Beyer performance in a stakes at this stage of the season usually invokes aspirations of running in the Breeders' Cup, the connections of More Than Looks (More Than Ready) indicated they'll likely stay on a late-season course that bypasses Santa Anita and the championships, even after the 3-year-old son of More Than Ready uncorked a devastating late kick and a 101 Beyer when dismantling the field in Saturday's $200,000 Jefferson Cup at Churchill Downs.

Ridden by Cristian Torres and trained by Cherie DeVaux for owner Anthony Bartolo's Victory Racing Partners, More Than Looks rated three wide at the back of the pack into the clubhouse turn and had one horse beaten turning for home as the 1.63-1 favorite in the mile turfer over “firm” ground.

Tipping widest into the lane under a full head of steam out in the seven path, More Than Looks inhaled his eight rivals while responding to rousing between the quarter and sixteenth poles, eventually drawing off by his lonesome late in the lane to score by 2 3/4 lengths

As Churchill announcer Travis Stone articulated with admiration in his call, the colt “looked hopeless with three furlongs to go” before out-torqueing the field in a visually impressive effort.

Now 4-1-1 from seven starts, More Than looks won the GIII Manila S. at Belmont Park on July 7 and ran third in the GII Hall of Fame S. at Saratoga Race Course on Aug. 11.

“This was one of the first times he really put his head down and ran through the wire,” De Vaux said. “Sometimes he got a little green and would hang a little bit once he got in front.”

DeVaux said More Than Looks would likely be aimed at the GIII Bryan Station S. at Keeneland Race Course Oct. 28 and could then attempt the GI Hollywood Derby (GI) at Del Mar Dec. 2.

Landing Spot TBD

Numbers aren't everything when considering the Breeders' Cup, especially when it comes to younger horses.

A case in point is Air Recruit (Air Force Blue), who won the $150,000 Laurel Futurity on Saturday over 1 1/16 miles on a “good” turf course at Laurel Park.

His win only registered a 67 on the Beyer scale. But the 2-year-old colt caught the eye by breaking well, conceding the lead, and rating midpack at the fence while covered up before tipping his big, white blaze out to the three path and wearing down the frontrunners with a determined effort.

Jockey Charlie Marquez rode for trainer Arnaud Delacour and owner Mark Grier.

Air Recruit won his Aug. 5 debut over 5 1/2 furlongs at Colonial Downs, beating a pair of next-out winners. He then finished third behind three-time stakes winner No Nay Mets (Ire) (No Nay Never) over the same course and distance in the $125,000 Rosie's S. Sept. 9.

“He went short the first two times out and the first time he really surprised us. We sat right behind the speed [in the colt's debut] and came flying and [were] able to win,” Marquez said. “We put him back in the stake at Colonial and he ran a huge race [behind a] very nice horse. We knew that he wanted to go longer so we stretched him out today and you guys saw what he did.”

Added Delacour: “He always showed a lot of speed. His first breeze from the gate he went like 47 [seconds] in hand, so we knew we had something. I didn't know about the distance, to be honest. That was kind of an experiment, but it was the right time to do it after two races.”

The GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf is a possible option, but it's annually a race that gets oversubscribed.

“We'll look at our options,” Delacour said. “Depending on how he comes back, if we can get in the Breeders' Cup it could be an option. He did it impressively enough that we could give him a shot-if we get in.”

Maryland Dates Reduction?

Craig Fravel, the chief executive officer for 1/ST Racing, which owns Laurel Park and Pimlico Race Course, told the Maryland Thoroughbred Racetrack Operating Authority on Friday that a reduced racing schedule is one option that could be considered as the circuit grapples with numerous near- and longer-term issues related to viability and relevancy.

Frank Vespe of The Racing Biz broke the story, reporting that when Authority member and Maryland Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (MTHA) general counsel Alan Foreman asked 1/ST Racing executives to better define what the company meant by an allusion to “realigning the racing calendar,” Fravel responded this way:

“We've made a proposal [to the MTHA] about taking a break in the calendar and shifting racing, the focus of racing, to Colonial during the summer months because they're paying $600,000 or $700,000 today in purse money.”

Vespe reported that 1/ST Racing's analysis “envisions a much shorter Maryland racing season,” but that “fewer days of racing would mean larger per-race purses,” noting that Maryland hosted 175 days of live racing in 2022 and has hosted as many as 187 days in recent years.

“We think that 80 to 90 days can be a very viable racing calendar,” Fravel said. “Even with that, though, operationally there needs to be some reconsideration of the distribution of revenues. But we also think that those days can be run with purses in excess of $500,000, maybe even $600,000 a day, which is highly competitive in the local, regional marketplace.”

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The skyrocketing 'TDN Rising Star' Tamara (Bolt d'Oro), unveiled barely a month ago, has emerged from the West Coast as the obvious topper of her division. But the brilliant, 2-for-2  daughter of four-time champion Beholder is likely to have a fight on her hands as the upcoming stakes engagements extend around two turns, thanks to a talented trio of fillies who have ascended in the East.

The latest addition to that group of contenders is fellow 'Rising Star' V V's Dream (Mitole), who on Saturday ran up the score by 8 3/4 as-she-pleased lengths in the GIII Pocahontas S. at Churchill Downs.

The stylish victory by the athletic, unruffled 6-5 favorite represented the first graded stakes win for her freshman sire, Mitole. The 1:36.45 clocking for the one-turn mile was .83 seconds faster than 2-year-old males ran one hour later in the GIII Iroquois S., earning V V's Dream an 87 Beyer Speed Figure that ranks nine points higher than the number assigned to the winning colt.

V V's Dream has already tangled with-and run second to-the 4-for-4 Brightwork (Outwork), who has won the Ellis Park Debutante S., the GIII Adirondack S., and the GI Spinaway S. in succession this summer.

Yet it is the trip-troubled filly who ran second in the Spinaway, 'TDN Rising Star' Ways and Means (Practical Joke), who is widely regarded as the one to beat coming out of the Saratoga season. This lofty assessment for a non-stakes-winner is based on her blowout, 90-Beyer MSW debut score by 12 3/4 lengths, and then having her momentum stalled twice in the Spinaway when checking hard and clipping heels behind Brightwork, who only beat her by half a length.

V V's Dream ($130,000 KEENOV; $190,000 KEESEP) also summered at the Spa, but didn't race there. After winning her May 19 debut at Churchill by 6 1/4 lengths and running second to Brightwork by half a length in the July 2 Ellis Debutante, the Ken McPeek-trained gray posted five published workouts at Saratoga, even though the Sept. 16 Pocahontas S. was circled on the calendar as her next goal.

“Kenny wanted to take longer, didn't want her to do another sprint,” owner Mike Mackin (MJM Racing) said in a post-win interview published on the Kentucky Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association's YouTube feed.

Churchill Downs this year tweaked some aspects of its September stakes schedule, including shortening both the Pocahontas and the Iroquois from 1 1/16 miles to one mile. The Pocahontas had been carded at a mile from 1982 through 2012 and in 2020. Mackin said the move didn't initially register on his or his trainer's radar as they prepped V V's Dream for that spot.

“At the time when we first started [planning her campaign], we were thinking that the Pocahontas was a mile and a sixteenth, and just wanted her to do two turns from here on out,” Mackin said.

“But, close enough, I guess, a flat mile,” Mackin added with the afterglow relief of an owner not wanting to nitpick a romp that stamped his filly as a major divisional force.

In the Pocahontas, V V's Dream rated adeptly under Brian Hernandez, Jr., then assertively split foes leaving the chute to command a sweet stalking spot while outside and jointly third for most of the backstretch run. The second and third favorites in the betting were establishing a lively and seemingly unsustainable tempo (:22.83 and :45.55), allowing Hernandez to hone his striking sights while edging incrementally closer through the far turn.

Pouncing at will at the quarter pole after a six-furlong split in 1:10.24, V V's Dream inhaled the wilted pacemakers with little resistance. But it took her several strides before she found her best footing and torqued into a higher gear three-sixteenths out, widening her margin with no serious challengers in her wake. She won geared down and galloped out almost a pole ahead of the runners-up.

“She went on by them pretty easily turning for home, and from there she just kind of coasted on in,” Hernandez said, adding that he “just kind of stayed out of her way and let her get under the wire on her own terms.”

Mackin said the Oct. 6 GI Alcibiades S. at Keeneland is next. He attempted to compare V V's Dream to other recent graded stakes winners his family has campaigned with McPeek (as Lucky Seven Stable), but couldn't quite come up with the right analogy.

“Well, hopefully she's got more sense than Smile Happy,” Mackin said, speaking of the notoriously difficult-to-train Runhappy colt. “But she's got more tactical speed than Rattle N Roll,” he added, referring to the one-run closer by Connect. “He's going to be back of the pack.”

Hernandez, who has worked closely with McPeek's outfit for years, had no trouble pinpointing a comparison from different owners in that same stable.

“She kind of reminds us a lot of that filly we had a few years ago, Restless Rider,” the jockey said, referring to the McPeek-trained daughter of Distorted Humor who ran second in the 2018 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

If V V's Dream follows Restless Rider's pattern and also wins the Alcibiades, she, too, will enter the Breeders' Cup  with a 3-for-4 record and a Grade I win at 1 1/16 miles as her final prep.

“She's just kind of big, and always forward,” Hernandez said of V V's Dream. “And from day one, when they first got her in here, she's always kind of done everything the right way. So she's just one of those types of fillies where it's exciting to see her just keep progressing.”

McPeek has now won the Pocahontas four times (2023, 2022, 2016, 2015), establishing a record for that stakes. As Mackin talked of plans for V V's Dream, it might have registered as a surprise to listeners when he touched on the fact that McPeek has never won a Breeders' Cup race. But he's been tantalizingly close-second seven times and third on 10 occasions.

McPeek himself wasn't at the post-race festivities to talk about whether V V's Dream could be the one to snap that oh-so-close Breeders' Cup streak. He was 80 miles east in Lexington, scoping out the Keeneland sale.

“As much as he would have liked to have been here today, his future is dependent upon buying the right yearlings,” Mackin said.

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(One horse was injured during a dirt race, had to be operated on and, five days after the accident, had to be put down due to complications. Three horses died during morning training due to traditional musculoskeletal injuries.)

In a meet where there were plenty of highlights, Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo) winning the GI Pacific Classic, the brilliant victory by Tamara (Bolt d'Oro) in the GI Del Mar Debutante, the dominance of Jockey Juan Hernandez, nothing was more important than Del Mar's safety record. These are the types of stories racing so badly needs in the midst of so many other tracks having nightmarish meets when it comes to breakdowns and these are the types of numbers that give you hope other tracks can get their fatality levels down to Del Mar levels.

And the story was much the same in 2022. There was not a single fatality that occurred during a race that year either. Officially, Del Mar had two equine deaths in 2022 that were once again the results of horses being injured in race only to be put down a few days later after attempts to save their lives were unsuccessful. Del Mar has not had a fatality during a race since 2021, when one horse died during a 2-year-old dirt race.

“We've been very fortunate and have put in a lot of hard work,” said Del Mar President Josh Rubinstein. “This is more a California story than just a Del Mar story. The numbers at Santa Anita have also been very good and both tracks have benefitted from the efforts from the CHRB. The biggest thing is there's clearly been a culture change and our horseman and horsewomen have really embraced the reforms we've implemented, which hasn't always been easy. Without their buy-in we wouldn't have gotten to where we are now.”

This was not always the case. Before there was Santa Anita 2019 when 30 horses had to be euthanized over a six-month period, Del Mar was having some high-profile problems of its own. When it took out its synthetic track after the 2014 meet, the number of fatalities per 1,000 starts jumped from .69 to 2.28 But it was not until the 2016 meet where the numbers went completely south and turned Del Mar into what may have been the deadliest racetrack in the country. During 54 days of racing, there were 12 fatalities during racing and they occurred at a rate of 3.01 per 1,000 starts. The national rate was 1.54 per 1,000 starts. Worse yet, 11 horses broke down during training hours, giving Del Mar 23 total fatalities for the meet that lasted just 54 days.

“You hate for this to happen anywhere but when something like this happens in California there is a massive spotlight on you, something you don't want to see. It was difficult. It really forced us to look at every single piece of the racing operation. We spent a lot of long days and nights figuring out how we could improve and get better, starting with 2017. Fortunately,  we have continued in the right direction.”

Del Mar management realized that something had to be done and that if the numbers did not improve that could have a cataclysmic effect on the sport. Much of the reforms now seen throughout California, began at Del Mar after the 2016 meet. The number of fatalities per 1,000 starts dropped to 1.50 for 2017. Since, that number has been .79, .62, .28 and .56. Depending upon how the case of the horse who died a few days after surgery is handled, the 2023 number could be zero.

The California/Del Mar play book is to have veterinarians examine a horse again and again and again before they are given the green light to race.

“There are all the veterinarian checks and the things that go into getting a horse ready to go on race day,” Rubinstein said. “With all the vet checks, the CHRB they've been terrific. While we do have our own track vets that oversee morning training and assist with the exams, the majority of the vet checks are by the CHRB. They have been terrific to work with as have industry stakeholders like the TOC. It costs more to get a horse to the races with these reforms and checks and for the most part the owners have been very much on board. It really has been a team effort.”

After 2016, the Del Mar team also realized that vet checks alone would not be enough.

Dennis Moore was brought in to oversee the main track and John Beggin was hired to oversee the turf course.

“We believe we have the best in the business in our main track superintendent, Dennis Moore, and John Beggin, who handles the turf course,” Rubinstein said. “They've both done a terrific job. On the main track, Dennis puts in a tremendous amount of hard work in the off season getting the track ready. Every day, he's looking at different levels, compaction levels, moisture levels. He works to insure the track is dialed in to be consistent, safe and fair. You talk to the horsemen and overall they are extremely pleased with main track and turf course here.”

Most tracks don't have the resources Del Mar has and can't afford to hire extra veterinarians, expert track superintendents or to put in such things like PET scans. But that doesn't mean they can't do better. Though the rate of breakdowns in this country is still way too high, Del Mar has proven that no track should settle for the status quo. They went from one of the most dangerous tracks in the country to one of the safest and all it really took was some effort and determination to solve an awful problem. They've done so well that perfection seems like an attainable goal.

At Gulfstream, Playing the Name Game

You might have noticed that trainer Jose Di Angelo won both divisions of the Florida Stallion S. Saturday at Gulfstream, taking the filly version with Welcome Back (Adios Charlie). Three races later he won the division for males with a horse named Bentornato (Valiant Minister). Bentornato means “welcome back” in Italian. The horses are owned by different owners, and the names are simply a coincidence.

“With Bentornato, I picked the horse out when he was at a baby sale at OBS (where he was bought for $45,000),” Di Angelo explained. “The owner pinhooked the horse and the guy that bought him from him returned the horse. That's why he named him Bentornato or Welcome Back. The other horse was always named Welcome Back.”

Saratoga Horse of the Meet

Each year Del Mar announced its “Horse of the Meet”, a long-standing tradition that takes place at the conclusion of the meet. It was Pacific Classic winner Arabian Knight. The voting is conducted among a panel of experts. How about Saratoga doing the same thing, bestowing what would be an important honor of the most outstanding horse at the sport's most important meet? My vote would have gone to Casa Creed (Jimmy Creed), but strong cases could have been made for Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) and Arcangelo (Arrogate). In addition to handing out the award, how about giving a cash prize to the groom, hotwalker and exercise rider of the winner. Say $25,000 each, money that can go a long way toward helping the unsung heroes of the backstretch.

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Yet, by just about any measure, it was not a good meet. Saratoga came into 2023 with the wind at its back. Every year the racing seemed to get bigger, the handle would grow and more and more fans would pile into the historic racecourse. Taking out the covid year, handle had risen at Saratoga for five straight years.

Would Saratoga ever lose its momentum or would it keep growing exponentially?

It turned this year. The 12 fatalities, including two particularly gruesome ones that occurred in full view of packed grandstand and before a national TV audience, were as bad as it gets. How many racing fans were turned into ex-racing fans on those days? NYRA has always taken the safety of the horses and jockeys very seriously and will no doubt continue to put in place measures to keep both safe.

They have some control over horse safety, but none over the weather, which was a huge problem at the meet. During the 2022 meet, only 15 races came off the grass. Through Sunday of the 2023 meet, 65 races had come off the grass. There had been 189 grass races run in 2022 versus 129 this year. That always leads to the same problems. When races come off the turf there are always a number of scratches, typically creating off-the-turf races with four or five-horse fields. On Aug. 10, an off-the-turf race actually turned into a match race. This is stuff no one wants to bet on.

NYRA is ready to do what it can to address that problem. NYRA President and CEO Dave O'Rourke has said that there is serious interest in installing a synthetic track at Saratoga by the 2025 meet. It wouldn't replace either the dirt main track or the two turf courses but would give NYRA a third option when it comes to racing surfaces and the synthetic track would largely be put to use when the rains washed races off of the turf.

The weather has been a problem, but if you dig a bit further you can find some signs that Saratoga handle was affected by more than the rain. On GI Travers Day 2023, when two races came off the turf, the handle was $50,183,71. In 2022, the handle was $55,559,315 when one race came off the grass. This past Saturday, on GI Jockey Club Gold Cup Day, they bet $27,400,509 on a day not impacted by weather. The year before the handle was $32,505,600.

“I think what happened is with all the earlier rain we lost some momentum and when that happened it's hard to get it back,” O'Rourke said.

Field size fell by 2.5 percent, from 7.75 to 7.56. A more telling number was the average handle per betting interest. It was $255,773 this year and $272,599 last year, for a drop of 6.2%.

What's done is done and there's nothing to do now but turn the page and hope Saratoga 2024 is one of the safest meets in history and the weather is gorgeous from opening day to closing day. The place is still magical and popular, but everything peaks at some point. Maybe that's happened to Saratoga.

European Dominance On The Turf

This is getting a bit ridiculous. U.S. racing is used to second-flight European horses coming over and winning some of our biggest grass race, but the year European shippers are having this year shows that our grass horses are vastly inferior. Take Saturday's GIII $2 million Mint Millions at Kentucky Downs. There was only one European shipper in the field, Ancient Rome (War Front), who is trained by Charlie Hills and was ridden by Jamie Spencer. Facing the likes of GI winner Annapolis (War Front), he came into it off a win in a handicap race. Before that you had to go all the way back to 2021 for his last graded win, a victory in the GIII Prix des Chenes in France. He won that by a half-length. He won the Mint Millions by a half-length.

A week earlier, it was Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}). He came into the GI Sword Dancer after losing by 21 1/2 lengths in the GI King George VI and Queen Elizabeth I Stakes, where he went off at 125-1. Yet, that was good enough to win the Sword Dancer by 4 1/2 lengths. The win broke a nine-race losing streak, going back to the 2021 GI Belmont Derby where he also took advantage of a weak group of U.S. turf horses.

Then there's Aspen Grove (Ire) (Justify). She was sent off at 50-1 in the GI Irish 1,000 Guineas and finished last beaten 14 1/2 lengths. But that was good enough for her to take home first prize of $500,000 in the GI Belmont Oaks Invitational in her next outing.

Good luck to our horses in the Breeders' Cup turf races.

Surprise, Surprise, Still No News Out Of Saudi Arabia

Back in 2020, Maximum Security (New Year's Day) crossed the line in front in the 2020 $20 million Saudi Cup. Just a few days later, his trainer, Jason Servis, was arrested and charged with using performance-enhancing drugs on most of the horses in his barn. When that news broke, the Jockey Club of Saudi Arabia said it was withholding the purses until it could investigate the situation

It's been 29 months since Servis was indicted, he has pled guilty and in November will begin a four-year prison sentence. The case is over, but the Saudis still haven't paid out the purse. Presumably, the winner's share of $10 million will eventually go to Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute). But no one has been paid as the Saudis, who should have all the evidence they'll ever need, do nothing and don't seem to be in any hurry to write a check. We tried to get an update on the situation this week, but the answer we got didn't really answer anything.

“Due to the extended nature of the judicial process in the USA, the JCSA has been unable to fully conduct its own investigation into the awarding of the winner's prize for The Saudi Cup 2020,” wrote the JCSA's Sarah Tregoning in response to an email sent by the TDN. “Now that the legal process in the USA has finished, the JCSA expects to swiftly conclude its own investigation and make an announcement in the coming weeks.”

I wouldn't hold your breath.

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