After bursting onto the scene with a third to Derby favorite Forte (Violence) in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity last fall, Red Route One earned a pair of placings in both the GIII Southwest S. and the GII Rebel S. before faltering to sixth when last spotted in the GI Arkansas Derby. Racing with Lasix for the first time Saturday, the chestnut put his typical running style into action, breaking nicely but falling back to trail the field as Victory Formation paced them through a :22.87 opening quarter. Under an easy ride from eighth, he started to pick up the bridle into the far turn and tipped out to carry his momentum past the furlong pole. Tapit Shoes was game to the inside but Red Route One got the better bob to take the narrow win on the wire.

Out of a full-sister to champion 3-year-old filly Untapable, Red Route One is also out of a half to GISW Paddy O'Prado (El Prado {Ire}). Red House has not produced a foal or been reported bred since Red Route One. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

BATH HOUSE ROW S., $200,000, Oaklawn, 4-22, 3yo, 1 1/8m, 1:50.94, ft.
1–RED ROUTE ONE, 118, c, 3, by Gun Runner
                1st Dam: Red House, by Tapit
                2nd Dam: Fun House, by Prized
                3rd Dam: Bistra, by Classic Go Go
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY);
T-Steven M. Asmussen; J-Joel Rosario. $120,250. Lifetime
Record: GISP, 9-2-2-1, $631,575. *Full to Red Run, SW,
$299,818.
2–Tapit Shoes, 118, c, 3, Tapit–Awesome Flower, by Flower
Alley. ($300,000 Ylg '21 FTKOCT). 1ST BLACK TYPE.
O-Spendthrift Farm LLC, Steve Landers Racing LLC, Martin S.
Schwartz, Michael Dubb, Ten Strike Racing, Jim Bakke,
Titletown Racing, LLC, Kueber Racing, LLC, Big Easy Racing LLC,
Winners Win, Michael Caruso and WinStar Farm, LLC;
B-Kenneth L. & Sarah K. Ramsey & Tapit Syndicate (KY); T-Brad
Cox. $37,000.
3–Victory Formation, 124, c, 3, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart
Strike. 'TDN Rising Star'. ($100,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000
Ylg '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 EASMAY). O-Spendthrift Farm
LLC and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, Inc.; B-Gainesway
Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. $18,500.
Margins: HD, HF, 7HF. Odds: 2.00, 5.20, 1.70.
Also Ran: Two Eagles River, Interlock Empire, Aristocracy, Line to Gain, Mazing Mark, Powerful.

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A full field of 14 will line up in the former, led by unbeaten 'TDN Rising Star' Victory Formation (Tapwrit). One of three entered for Brad Cox, the 3-1 morning-line favorite heads to the post off a front-running tally over stablemate Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) in the Smarty Jones S. going a mile at Oaklawn Jan. 1.

Drawn on the outside in post 13, Victory Formation figures to have plenty of company on the front end if similar tactics are employed in this first attempt at 1 1/8 miles.

“I think he should be able to break well and get a good position,” Cox said. “I'm not too worried about the outside post. He's very quick from the gate and broke really sharp in all three of his starts. Obviously, Flavien [Prat] is a great rider; we're not going to give him too many instructions, and he rode him last time so he does know the horse.”

Cox will also saddle second-choice Tapit's Conquest (Tapit), who looks primed for a breakthrough performance following a strong second with a less-than-ideal trip behind the re-opposing Determinedly (Cairo Prince) in his sophomore debut at Fair Grounds Jan. 21.

“I think he got a lot out of it and he hadn't run since October,” Cox said. “He needed the last race, he's still learning. He didn't really get involved as much as we'd like last time, but ultimately came running, and I think he got a lot out of it from an educational standpoint. He should love a mile and an eighth even more.”

Only two Risen Star entrants–Curly Jack (Good Magic) and Two Phil's (Hard Spun)–have posted wins versus graded stakes company so far.

Curly Jack, winner of the GIII Iroquois S. Sept. 17 and a well-beaten fifth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, capped his 2-year-old campaign with a very good second behind subsequent GIII Lecomte S. winner Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 26. Last term's GIII Street Sense S. winner Two Phil's, meanwhile, completed the exacta in the Lecomte last time.

The six-deep Rachel Alexandra is headlined by the highly regarded Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief), who puts a perfect three-for-three record on the line. She concluded her juvenile campaign with a dominating win in Churchill's GII Golden Rod S. Nov. 26.

“We have a lot of expectations for her based on what she's done so far, so there's a lot of anticipation about how she's going to come back at three,” trainer Tom Amoss said. “Her morning preparation has been just as it was when she was two, so that gives us some feeling of confidence going into the race. But still, it is just her first race at three.”

Hoosier Philly closed at 11-1 in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4, the third choice in wagering.

“That's just noise,” Amoss said. “We're not looking at anything other than this race right now.”

The 13-race card at Fair Grounds also includes the GIII Mineshaft S. and GIII Fair Grounds S.

There are four other graded stakes around the country Saturday–the GIII Royal Delta S. at Gulfstream; the GIII Barbara Fritchie S. and GIII General George S. at Laurel; and the GIII Razorback H. at Oaklawn.

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In addition to the Kentucky Derby prep race, a Kentucky Oaks prep race on Saturday–the $300,000 GII Rachel Alexandra S.–will feature the 3-year-old seasonal bow of GSW Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief).

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The same journey was made this week by the trainer of Alydar. John Veitch laid the ground for the greatest Triple Crown campaign of any horse that never won a Triple Crown race by giving him 10 starts as a juvenile. Curiously, however, trainers of the succeeding generation appear to have decided either that they have found a better way; or at least that the materials provided, since breeding became an almost exclusively commercial enterprise, are no longer equal to the same kind of treatment.

Trainers today map out the road to the Derby with two priorities: minimize gas consumption, and avoid traffic. That way, they feel, their charges can reach Churchill with a relatively full tank and pristine engine. But the fact is that you always feel able to drive a car more aggressively once it has taken a few bumps and scratches. And you also learn far more about its capacity and response if you have repeatedly had to accelerate or brake to get out of trouble, as compared with cruising along an open road and every six weeks overtaking a laboring truck while barely changing gear.

In the prevailing environment, then, we must give credit to the people at Fair Grounds for redressing the shortfall in conditioning by extending the distance of all three legs of their trials program. If horses can no longer get the kind of mental and physical foundation they once derived from sheer volume of racing, then at least they can have a little more aggregate. With a field of 14, moreover, the GII Risen Star S. is meanwhile guaranteed to steepen the learning curve.

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Saturday will be only the fourth time the race has been run over this extra 1/16th, yet its last two winners have both gone on to finish second in the Derby. One, of course, was actually promoted to first place; while much the same was done for the other by voters at the recent Eclipse Awards.

To be fair, the Risen Star was already on a roll, having lately produced a GI Preakness winner, the phenomenal Gun Runner and the promising stallion Girvin. Between here and Oaklawn, then, you won't find many handicappers nowadays still reducing the quest for the Derby winner to the two dimensions of East and West Coasts. Paradoxically, however, I feel that a still better way to regenerate the Triple Crown trail lurks right at the other end of the spectrum.

Alydar started his Classic campaign over seven furlongs; so too, as it happens, did Afternoon Deelites. With Diana Firestone also among the week's obituaries, we might mention Honest Pleasure and Genuine Risk, who both resumed in sprints as well. That had long been standard procedure, for the old school, as a way of sharpening a horse without penetrating to a vulnerable margin of fitness.

I've often remarked on the dilution of the Derby since the willful exclusion of sprinters under the starting points system. Okay, so they finally managed a meltdown last year and so set up a historic aberration in every way. But otherwise the race has lately been dominated by those setting or sharing a pace shorn of raw sprint competition. And I do think that the Derby's status as the definitive test of the American Thoroughbred, identifying the kind of genes we should want to replicate, is suffering as a result.

Between trainers' dread of running horses at all, and the imperative to bank points when they actually do, we're ending up with the worst of both worlds. Remember that it was as recently as 2015 that Nyquist and Exaggerator cranked each other up over seven in the GII San Vicente S., in 1:20.7, and that didn't work out too badly on Derby day.

I really do think that loading a few points into the San Vicente and the GIII Swale S. would be a smart move by Churchill. Because it doesn't feel as though the model nowadays favored by trainers is working on too many levels. It certainly doesn't work for fans, who get a woefully condensed narrative and reduced engagement; it arguably doesn't help the horses, sent straight into the red zone when they can't be fully fit; and I'm not sure it's working for the Derby, either as a spectacle or as a signpost to genes that can carry meaningful speed.

In the meantime, aptitudes of more obvious pertinence to the Derby scenario will at least be examined in this crowd scene for the Risen Star. And wait, look at this: there's actually a horse in the field with eight starts to his name already. Determinedly (Cairo Prince) is followed here by the pair of Tapits he held off in an allowance last month, a performance rather too faintly praised because everyone had written a different script in advance. Actually this horse's own part keeps being rewritten, having started out on turf and apparently flirted with a return to sprinting. But maybe he can keep some of these flashier types honest, and help to measure the kind of talent Victory Formation (Tapwrit) will need to maintain his unbeaten record from a post out near Baton Rouge.

From a European perspective, it's always surprising that people should be so specific, almost dogmatic, about the optimality of dirt horses operating within so narrow a range. The way people talk, you would think that the poor creatures will drop clean off the edge of the world if venturing that crucial 1/16th too far.

That's why I like to see them given the chance to work on their all-around game, and develop different strengths. Because, if the oldest of Old Friends can be so susceptible even in the span of his years, then what limits might we be putting on the things they do in their prime?

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Other horses who attracted interest from the bettors were: Tapit Trice (Tapit) (15-1); GII Kentucky Jockey Club and GIII Lecomte winner Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) (22-1); Smarty Jones winner Victory Formation (Tapwrit) (23-1); and Geaux Rocket Ride (Candy Ride {Arg}) (25-1).

Total handle for the Feb. 10-12 KDFW pool–the fourth of six scheduled wagering pools in advance of the GI Kentucky Derby–was $340,880 ($259,489 in the Win pool and $81,391 in Exactas) –a 3.8% increase from last year's February pool. Through the first four pools, a total of $964,540 has been bet on Derby future wagers.

Other Future Wager dates are set for March 10-12 (Pool 5); and March 30-April 1 (Pool 6). The lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager will coincide with Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 5 on March 10-12.

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1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

Arabian Knight's thorough ransacking of the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Jan. 28 effectively slammed the door on any early-season debate about whether or not this 'TDN Rising Star' would live up to the outsized hype heaped upon him after just a single sprint win three months ago.

This speed-centric, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) not only wired the field with aplomb, but he checked a lot of boxes on the Derby intangibles list, including shipping away from his home base, handling both a sloppy racing surface and two turns, and showing that being confronted with multiple tactical in-race challenges didn't faze him in the least.

Arabian Knight broke fluidly and willingly, then effortlessly cleared the pesky 46-1 Frosted Departure (Frosted), who had inside position. Splashing onto the backstretch, Arabian Knight was looking around “a lot” according to jockey John Velazquez, who moved him off the rail to relax, maintaining a steady leading margin of 1 1/2 lengths into the far turn. The second and third favorites launched one-punch bids that soon flattened out, but the overachieving Frosted Departure was still gamely shadowing the 2-5 fave, having whittled down the lead to half a length at the head of the homestretch.

Velazquez then got after his colt, but Arabian Knight only needed two cracks of the crop and some mild hand-urging to mesh into an unmatchable deep-stretch gear that surely did not come close to scraping the bottom of his stamina reserves. “Going to the wire I was like, 'Okay, that's what I wanted to see,” Velazquez said post-win.

It's tough to tease out any “cons” to go along with all these gushing “pros” about Arabian Knight's sophomore unveiling. If there is one, it might be a very mild quibble about the Beyer Speed Figure he earned (96), which marked a slight regression from his 97 debut in a MSW on the Breeders' Cup undercard back in November

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte (Violence) is three workouts into his training for the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. Even though this 'TDN Rising Star' ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) capped his 2-year-old season with a definitive win in the Breeders' Cup, proponents of key races have long since locked in on Forte's other Grade I route victory, the Oct. 8 Breeders' Futurity S., as the defining stakes race on the Derby trail so far.

In addition to Forte's next-out tally in the GI Juvenile, that Keeneland race also yielded back-to-back next-out Grade II and III stakes winner Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro); the next-out Grade III winner Two Phil's (Hard Spun); the eventual Grade III winner and 'TDN Rising Star' Newgate (Into Mischief); one other next-out listed stakes winner, and a next-out allowance winner. In addition, the runner-up in that race, the highly acclaimed Loggins (Ghostzapper), who has yet to have a published workout in 2023, rates highly on many “wiseguy” lists as the juvenile who ran the best losing effort in a Grade I stakes last season.

There have now been 11 Kentucky Derby qualifying points races run at 1 1/16 miles. No Derby prospect since has eclipsed Forte's 100 Beyer from that race (although two have tied it), and his closing final-sixteenth fraction of :6.19 in the stretch run of the Juvenile is still fastest among the 1 1/16-mile preps.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

Trainer Todd Pletcher has been known to make judicious use of Florida allowance races in prepping his Derby prospects, and Saturday's eight-length blowout in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream left the impression this $1.3-million KEESEP colt by Tapit has the athleticism and confidence to be a major player when assigned a two-turn stakes task.

Breaking from the rail as a first-time Lasix user Feb. 4, Tapit Trice (again) was a touch slow leaving the gate. Luis Saez swooped him out to the five path, and this assertive gray picked off half the pack to carve out a sweet stalking spot, gaining incrementally down the long backstraight run. Tapit Trice built up serious momentum by the five-sixteenths pole, and when he accosted his favored stablemate for the lead, he managed to dispatch him without serious tussle.

Slicing into the home stretch with no rivals left to conquer, Tapit Trice got to gawking a bit, but Saez refocused him with one stern right-handed swat nearing the furlong marker before finishing under a moderate drive.

The 92-Beyer win generated no shortage of speculation about how Tapit Trice might have prevailed had he instead been entered in the GIII Holy Bull S. over 1 1/16 miles that same afternoon. But his first-level allowance win will prove useful in the long run considering this colt still needs to work on alertness out of the gate, a minor issue that up to this point has been overcome by raw ability and prime positioning in one-turn miles.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20.

Rocket Can, a $245,000 FTSAUG RNA, is a good example of a Derby prospect whose visual impressions rate quite a bit higher than the speed numbers he's earned in those races.

The 82-Beyer victor of Saturday's Holy Bull S. gave up considerable ground on both turns while always being within three lengths of striking distance from the leaders. Urged five-sixteenths out by Junior Alvarado, Rocket Can responded on cue, seizing the lead off the turn and remaining mentally intent through the stretch, maintaining a three-quarter length winning margin with a bearing-down stablemate hot on his heels.

Starting with a switch to routes in his third start, trainer Bill Mott has developed an efficient gray who now comes out running to establish key positioning, knows how to pounce off the far turn, and without hesitation throws himself headlong into deep-stretch showdowns.

Rocket Can's mid-pack tactics in the Holy Bull were also against the grain of Gulfstream's short-stretch track layout for 1 1/16 miles, which had him starting from the outermost post very close to the first turn in a race that ends at the sixteenth pole. And he did his job while overcoming a moderate tempo that did no pace favors to aid his stalking style.

5) BANISHING (c, Ghostzapper–Dowager, by A.P. Indy) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $42,000. Last start: 1st Fair Grounds Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 26. KY Derby Points: 0.

Banishing has resumed training after getting cast in his stall Jan. 20, requiring sutures to close a hind-leg cut.

Trainer Brendan Walsh told Daily Racing Form last week that “nothing has been ruled out or ruled in” as far as the next race for this Godolphin homebred. He had been slated to start favored in allowance/optional claimer at Fair Grounds the day after his accident, but had to scratch.

With a pedigree that looks more tantalizing the closer we get to 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May (by Ghostzapper out of an A.P. Indy mare), this chestnut with a distinctive white blaze won at second asking on Dec. 26 over 1 1/16 miles in New Orleans, bounding home by 8 1/2 lengths and earning a 90 Beyer for the effort.

He was a front-running force in that race, displaying measured speed while edging away under pressure before cracking open the race late. His final time of 1:44.80 was .05 seconds faster than the same-distance Gun Runner S. for more experienced juveniles four races later on that card.

6) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

It's rare when you encounter a pedigree with a breeding line that features a sire (Arrogate at 122) and damsire (Bellamy Road at 120) who both posted stratospheric Beyer figures of at least 120 during their racing careers.

Cave Rock himself ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) uncorked a 101 Beyer in his 6 1/2-furlong sprint debut last summer at Del Mar, and he upped the ante to 104 with a dominant win in the GI American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita.

He was then a beaten favorite with reasonable excuses in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (hot and bothered pre-race, worked too hard through quick opening quarter).

But those imposing stats all start to fade in relevancy the longer this 'TDN Rising Star' remains without a published workout. As of Monday morning, he's the only Top 12 contender yet to hit the worktab this year, and trainer Bob Baffert now faces a race against the clock to launch a campaign that includes at least one prep race between now and May 6.

7) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

On the face of it, 'TDN Rising Star' Faustin's second-place finish in the four-horse, seven-furlong Jan. 29 GII San Vicente S. was only a so-so effort. But from a longer-term developmental perspective, the race could still end up being a useful stepping-stone.

The winner was his stablemate, Havnameltdown (Uncaptured), who looks, acts, and performs like a true one-turn stakes colt. Havnameltdown also had everything his own way on the front end, and while Faustin did show some flashes of interest–like diving into an opening at the rail when jockey Ramon Vazquez shook the reins to cue him three-eighths out–this son of Curlin (out of a Hard Spun mare) clearly needs more real estate to uncoil effectively.

Trainer Bob Baffert said post-race that Havnameltdown “will stay one turn. Faustin, he was kind of a grinding slow, he wants to go longer. [But] you try to get outs into them so they'll learn and you'll figure [them out]. The problem is that if you break your maiden first time out, you have to run in stakes. It is that way all over the country. Just getting these races into them it is important. Faustin, you can tell he is not there yet. [But] once he goes two turns, you'll see a big difference in him. He wat trying to get there, but he was running against a top-class sprinter.”

8) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Signator, a $1.7-million OBSAPR son of Tapit, is gearing up for his 2023 campaign after being sidelined late last fall with a wrenched ankle.

His professional, stalking score while driving through at the rail in an Oct. 14 MSW mile at Aqueduct was eye-catching enough to earn 'TDN Rising Star' status, and he's now three breezes into his work pattern at Payson Park.

“I haven't really picked out a place to run him yet, but it won't be long,” trainer Shug McGuaghey said on Friday, adding that Gulfstream or Tampa are the two likely comeback spots. “He's grown, gotten bigger, and filled out the way we want him to.”
McGuaghey is quite familiar with the female side of Signator's pedigree, having trained the dam (Pension), the second dam (Furlough), and great-grandsire Easy Goer.

“Signator is a lot different than Pension. She was very high-strung, and just broke her maiden. But some of the others were fairly nice,” he added with understatement.

9) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

This son of son of 2017 Belmont S. victor Tapwrit ($100,00 KEENOV; $150,000 FTKJUL; EASMAY $340,000) has compiled a 3-for-3 record, but he'll be due for a dive into the graded end of the stakes pool in his next outing, which is likely to come at either Fair Grounds or Oaklawn.

A 'TDN Rising Star,' Victory Formation sports a decent MSW-allowance-ungraded stakes progression, with ascending winning Beyer figures of 81-85-91.

Trainer Brad Cox has described him as an intelligent colt who “doesn't overdo it,” which he believes will only be a plus as the distances increase along with the demands of tougher competition.

Victory Formation's current company lines could use some beefing up: The three horses who ran 3-4-5 behind him in the Jan. 1, short-stretch Smarty Jones S. all failed to win in next-out stakes, with all three of them regressing on the Beyer scale.

10) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: 4-1-1-0, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

When a Bob Baffert-trained colt requires four starts to break his maiden, that usually relegates him to the “B” list within a stable of sophomores that annually fields a pretty deep bench.

I wouldn't count Hejazi out of the mix based on that profile, though. The $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, this New York-bred son of Bernardini ran better in his trio of defeats than those races might seem on paper.

A step slow out of the gate in his Aug. 20 Del Mar sprint debut, Hejazi rushed up to lead between calls, backed off, then fired again to land second behind an eventual grass stakes winner.

Start No. 2 saw Hejazi drawn way out in post 10 sprinting 5 ½ furlongs, and he flashed wide speed behind wire-to-wire stablemate Speed Boat Beach (Bayern), who established a track-record clocking and has subsequently gone on to win two turf stakes.

Start No. 3 was an ambitious push to try and get Hejazi to the Breeders' Cup, and as a maiden against winners in the American Pharoah S. he managed third behind stablemate Cave Rock, the eventual favorite and runner-up in the Juvenile.

A three-month freshening did Hejazi a world of good, and he finally hit the winner's circle going 6 ½ furlongs at Santa Anita Jan. 15, swatting away two challengers inside the final half a furlong (97 Beyer).

11) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $322,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee, who just hit his third birthday Feb. 6, was a surprising sort straight out of the gate, winning over seven furlongs in his Sept. 3 Saratoga debut at 14-1 odds.

In three 1 1/16 miles since then, he's overachieved without being overwhelming, winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. on Nov. 26 and the GIII Lecomte S. on Jan. 21 by rallying off the tailgate with wide, steady drives.

The only loss to date for this $200,000 KEESEP grad came in start No. 2, and considering Instant Coffee was making the jump straight into Grade I company while going around two turns for the first time in the key-race Breeders' Futurity S., he actually managed a decent fourth behind eventual divisional champ Forte.

Instant Coffee's race spacing and foundation both leave room for continued improvement, with trainer Brad Cox indicating that one or two additional stakes in the Fair Grounds prep series are on his radar.

12) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $69,750. Last Start: Won Sar Maiden Special Weight, Aug. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

It's now been half a year since Disarm has been in the entries. This 'TDN Rising Star' (based on his 6 ¼-length, 86-Beyer Saratoga sprint score Aug. 6) has been breezing somewhat under the radar at Fair Grounds, but he's now four works in and up to five furlongs.

“He's training with anticipation of him making it back to the Derby trail,” owner/breeder Ron Winchell texted to TDN over the weekend. As for a target race, Winchell wrote that he and trainer Steve Asmussen “will know more after his next work.”

Last summer, Asmussen said he had “high expectations” for Disarm, adding that in a June 19 third-place debut at Churchill, the colt “didn't do much correctly first time out, just because he's a big boy. Looks like he's gonna stretch out beautifully. We will definitely get to dream with him for a while.”

Disarm was shelved in September for undisclosed reasons, and at the time, Asmussen predicted a return sometime during the New Orleans winter/spring meet.

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Verifying: A $775,000 Keeneland September purchase, he was second in the GI Champagne S. before finishing mid-pack in the Juvenile.

“Hopefully, the race Saturday will be the start of a big year for him and everything will go well for him on Saturday,” Cox said. “After this race and if everything goes well Saturday we'll look for a Triple Crown prep.”

Loggins (Ghostzapper): Though he finished second behind eventual Juvenile winner Forte (Violence) in the GI Breeders' Futurity, Loggins served notice that day that he is a horse to be reckoned with. Of the two, Forte clearly had the better trip and Loggins was fighting back at the end. Afterward, Cox decided to pass on the Juvenile and freshen the horse up for the Derby. Loggins remains at WinStar Farm, where he went after the Breeders' Futurity for some R & R, but the trainer said he should arrive back at his Fair Grounds barn shortly. Cox remains undecided when it comes to Loggins's next race.

Victory Formation (Tapwrit): In his first try around two turns, Victory Formation won the Jan. 1 one-mile Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn by three lengths. Having passed the all-important distance test, he should be ready for a tougher assignment. Cox said the colt will go next in either the GII Rebel S. or the GII Risen Star S.

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire): Finished second behind stablemate Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones. His next start will be in either the Rebel or Risen Star.

Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro): Was last seen winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. on Nov. 26 at Churchill. That he's already won around two turns and at Churchill Downs are pluses. He will run next in the GIII Lecomte S. on Jan. 21 at Fair Grounds.

“He's doing well,” Cox said. “Since his last run we've been pointing to the Lecomte and have freshened him up a bit. He's been training very well here at the Fair Grounds.”

Jace's Road (Quality Road): Is coming off a huge run in the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, which he won by 5 1/2 lengths and under wraps. He's been working regularly since and Cox said the GIII Southwest S. will be next for him.

Giant Mischief (Into Mischief): Suffered somewhat of a setback when he couldn't win the Springboard Mile S. at Remington as the 4-5 favorite. Nonetheless, he was second and ran well enough to suggest he still belongs in the Derby picture. Cox said the Rebel will be next.

“He had three runs as a 2-year-old and ran in mid-December,” Cox said. “I feel like he'll only need two starts before the Derby. We'll find out if we can earn enough points and if he's worthy of making it into the Derby.”'

Corona Bolt (Bolt d'Oro): Is 2-for-2 and was an impressive winner of the six-furlong Sugar Bowl S., where he earned a 97 Beyer figure. Can he stretch out?

“He's a good colt,” Cox said. “We will try him in the Southwest and will prepare him at the Fair Grounds for his first run around two turns. There's always a little bit of a question whether they want to go two turns. He's a horse with a lot of speed but he's also intelligent and seems to relax and respond to what the rider wants.”

Though Cox has officially won a Derby, he admits he'd like to get another one and do so with a horse who crosses the wire first. He's optimistic that within this deep group there may be that special horse.

“It is a very good group that we have,” he said. “I felt last summer that we had a very good group of colts. I feel fortunate and am very happy with where we are. But I'm the first to admit there's a long way to go before we get to the first Saturday in May and that things have to go right.

“The Derby is why I get up and do this every day. It means a tremendous amount to me and to everyone in our stable. It means a lot to the owners and the race really helps drive this game. It's the biggest race we have in America. For me, it would be great to win it the right way and cross the wire first.”

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1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $86,025. Last start: 1st Keeneland Maiden Special Weight, Nov. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

It wasn't too long ago that ranking a colt who has zero experience beyond the maiden ranks as your Derby kingpin in the dead of winter would have been an audacious selection. But now, in this era where a Triple Crown “foundation” often consists of just two or three sophomore prep races, heading a list with a lightly experienced contender like 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight isn't all that outlandish.

This powerful son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP; $2.3 million OBSAPR sale-topper) didn't just “debut” on the Breeders' Cup undercard–his presence in Lexington on racing's championship weekend was a well-orchestrated unveiling by trainer Bob Baffert for owner Zedan Racing Stables. Fast and fluid off the mark going seven furlongs, this bay responded to rating from John Velazquez but still drew away responsively to win by a dazzling 7 1/4 lengths (97 Beyer Speed Figure).

“We took a big chance bringing him here to run,” Baffert said post-win. “Johnny asked me, 'How Good is he?' I said, 'You ride him like you rode Uncle Mo, because I think he's Uncle Mo.' And the way he moves; he's been working with older horses-unbelievable.”

Baffert told TDN via text on Sunday he's not ready to commit to a particular comeback race and that, “We are going slow with him. No rush to run him.” But Arabian Knight is now five works into his training at Santa Anita, including a bullet six furlongs on Dec. 30, so he's got to be getting close.

For the second straight year, Churchill Downs has banished Baffert from the Derby related to his under-appeal equine drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points. While this issue plays out in the courts and at the racing commission level, the focus for TDN's Top 12 writeups will be on the horses and not the trainer's eligibility status.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte stamped himself as the crop-topper among up to 1 1/16 miles, and he looms as the deserving favorite for the divisional championship in the Eclipse Award voting. Two Grade I wins in his only two route attempts underscore that this son of Violence has already checked some important boxes along his development arc.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has outlined a two-prep path to Louisville that includes a sophomore debut in the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S., followed by either the GI Florida Derby or the GI Blue Grass S. This two-time auction grad ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) has proven capable of carving out fortuitous trips while negotiating large fields, largely thanks to precision far-turn targeting over short-stretch configurations at Keeneland by jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Owned in partnership by Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable, Forte outmuscled a tenacious runner-up by wresting back the lead in deep stretch of the 14-horse GI Breeders' Futurity S., and in the 10-horse GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile he adeptly reeled in the odds-on favorite while encountering no serious challengers late in the lane (100 Beyer).

Forte's biggest Derby obstacle might involve bucking a daunting historical trend: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Derby wins (Nyquist and Street Sense) from 38 runnings.

3) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style reminiscent of his sire, Arrogate, has been likened to a big, powerful football fullback by trainer Bob Baffert. But despite being very mature-looking physically, this imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) got so keyed up prior to his second-place finish as the beaten fave in the Breeders' Cup that the mental duress surely cost him some on-track energy.

Owned by Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman, this two-time Grade I winner unleashed a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never appearing close to being fully extended.

But it was a different story a month later in the Juvenile, when Cave Rock was committed to the lead outside of a 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter, had trouble settling, then took command about halfway home with foes nipping at his heels. Approaching the far turn, it initially looked as if Cave Rock was cresting to a high cruising speed with a short-stretch finish ahead and main rival Forte six lengths behind.

But Forte was just getting wound up while Cave Rock was feeling the effects of his toil, and although Cave Rock initially met Forte's challenge, he came unhinged under left-handed stick work while languishing too long on his left lead in the stretch. He was no match for the winner, but Cave Rock left the impression that a better-focused version of him could be capable of reversing that result.

4) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $56,950. Last start: 1st Aqueduct Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 17. KY Derby Points: 0.

This gray son of Tapit who hammered for $1.3 million at KEESEP was bet down to second favoritism debuting at Aqueduct Nov. 6. A bit raw at the break of a one-turn mile from the outermost post, Tapit Trice got a decent schooling tucking in behind, then splitting horses before finishing with interest and galloping out ahead of the only two horses who beat him (73 Beyer).

Owned in partnership by Whisper Hill Farm and breeder Gainesway, this Todd Pletcher trainee learned from that experience by overcoming trip adversity to score in start number two, another one-mile-try, as the 17-10 fave Dec. 17 over a sealed, muddy Aqueduct surface.

Off slowly, Tapit Trice lagged but got maneuvered to the eight path to avoid getting pelted with kickback. It took him awhile to get into gear, tagging on to the end of the first flight about a half mile from home, then commencing a field-looping bid way out in the six path. He engaged the two leaders off the bend, maintained the upper hand when enduring some brushing and bumping from the outward-shifting second fave, then nailed the win by a neck without seeming one bit fazed by the stretch fight (89 Beyer).

The effort wasn't a spectacular, blow-away victory. But Tapit Trice completed his assigned task very capably while demonstrating there is raw, Derby-quality talent beneath a still-unpolished surface.

5) BANISHING (c, Ghostzapper–Dowager, by A.P. Indy)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $42,000. Last start: 1st Fair Grounds Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 26. KY Derby Points: 0.

A chestnut with a distinctively jagged blaze, this Godolphin homebred by Ghostzapper out of an A.P. Indy mare started his career Nov. 13 in a one-turn-mile MSW at Churchill, breaking from post 12 and racing in the 10 path early while cruising up to be within two lengths of the lead through a well-contested pace.

Banishing was four wide into the turn, quickened 3 ½ furlongs out, then got within a nostril of the lead just before the field hit the top of the stretch. He initially seemed to tire from that stout middle move, but sparked back to life late in the lane only to lose a photo for fourth behind a favored winner and a third-place horse who came back to win at 3-5 odds in a subsequent Gulfstream MSW.

On Dec. 26 at Fair Grounds, this Brendan Walsh trainee added Lasix, stretched out to 1 1/16 miles, and was sent off as the 2-1 chalk. Unhurried out of the gate, he established position at the rail in a three-way go and kept edging away under pressure. Banishing was headed off the final turn but immediately met that affront, throttling open late while leaving the second and third faves reeling in his 8 ½-length wake.

He earned a 90 Beyer, and his maiden-breaking final clocking of 1:44.80 was .05 seconds faster than the same-distance Gun Runner S. for more experienced juveniles later on the card.

6) LOGGINS (c, Ghostzapper–Beyond Blame, by Blame)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Spendthrift Farm LLC, Steve Landers Racing LLC, Martin S. Schwartz, Michael Dubb, Ten Strike Racing, Jim Bakke, Titletown Racing Stables, Kueber Racing LLC, Big Easy Racing LLC, and Winners Win; B-Popatop, LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox.  Sales history: $460,000 Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $175,500. Last start: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, Oct. 8. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Loggins ($460,000 FTSAUG) went off favored in the “loaded” (five next-out winners) Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland, and if there was such an award as the best losing effort in a juvenile stakes, his second-place try behind the No. 2-ranked Forte would have slam-dunked it for 2022.

Running back in just three weeks after a 6 ½-furlong MSW winning debut, Loggins (trained by Brad Cox and carrying the colors of Spendthrift Farm in a 10-way partnership) established strong early inside positioning amid a crush of first-turn traffic, then was content to concede the lead while covered up in third at the fence on the backstretch.

He seized the top spot 4 ½ furlongs from the wire, and although the bid initially appeared premature, Loggins confidently chugged homeward before being accosted by Forte at the head of the lane. Forte muscled in on Loggins with one furlong left, but the less-experienced Loggins gamely responded by clawing back the lead for about six jumps before Forte eked out a neck victory at the finish.

Back in October, Cox had outlined a break for Loggins that would have the colt off for about 45 days and back in his Fair Grounds barn by December. But as of Sunday, Cox told TDN via text that Loggins still “required a little extra time” away and that his return to the track would be  “soon” with no specific prep race as the target.

7) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last start: Maiden win at Santa Anita. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin, a high-energy gray whose damsire and sire (Hard Spun and Curlin), ran second and third in the 2007 Derby, achieved 'TDN Rising Star' status in his Dec. 26 debut when he cuffed around a MSW sprint crew at Santa Anita in a manner more impressive than his 2 ¾-length winning margin and 89 Beyer might suggest.

Off a beat slow, this Bob Baffert trainee for owner Michael Lund Petersen was quickly hustled into contention by jockey Ramon Vazquez, but the hole they were aiming for closed just as the field cleared the gap. Continuously kept busy, Faustin accelerated as asked while Vazquez kept shifting laterally in an effort to pick a stalking spot, twice coming off the inside and then dropping back near the fence again in his run down the backstretch and through the turn.

At the head of the homestretch, Faustin lost momentum (but just momentarily) when he twice had to be snatched off heels and switched outward to clear rivals. But once he saw daylight, this colt ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) didn't need much encouragement to kick into a willing overdrive just outside the sixteenth pole.

Faustin was digging in and appeared to be relishing the task; in this era of top prospects racing only sparingly, he has already cleared the “overcomes adversity” hurdle well ahead of most of his peers.

8) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

With a pedigree topped by Tapit out of a Seeking the Gold mare, Signator wasn't expected to excel sprinting in his Sept. 16 debut. But after racing a bit greenly in upper stretch, this $1.7 million OBSAPR colt made the most out of that experience by finishing with a visual flourish through the final sixteenth to gain second before galloping out with purpose past the winner.

Start number two was a muddy mile over a drying-out Aqueduct surface, and as the 3-5 favorite, Signator absorbed some bumping out of the gate, then raced with his head cocked toward the infield under a snug grab down the backstretch. Through most of the far turn, Javier Castellano kept Signator on hold near the fence behind a four-horse wall while gambling that inside passage would open up, and when it did, Signator pulsed on through like a pro, earning 'TDN Rising Star' placement in the process.

Owned by an eight-way partnership, Signator was scratched from the Nov. 6 GII Nashua S. because of a wrenched ankle that has reportedly since healed. He rejoined trainer Shug McGuaghey's Payson Park string in Florida three weeks ago and just hit the work tab on Dec. 31. His pair of relatively low 73 Beyers might be cause for pause for some Derby prognosticators, but Signator rates higher on the “how he did it” scale rather than “how fast.”

9) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

Well-bet, wire-to-wire winners have now captured the ungraded (but points-awarding) Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn in five of the past six years after the coast-to-coast score by Victory Formation ($100,00 KEENOV; $150,000 FTKJUL; $340,000 EASMAY) on Sunday.

A 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' owned in partnership by Spendthrift Farm and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, this son of Tapwrit's heavy lifting on Jan. 1 consisted largely of clearing a pesky 56-1 shot while breaking from post eight.

After an up-tempo opening quarter of :23.20,  Flavien Prat reeled off consecutive quarters of :24.55, :24.61 and :25.78 to coast home unopposed by three lengths at 3-5 odds in 1:38.14 for the short-stretch mile (91 Beyer).

“This horse has a great mind. He doesn't overdo it in the morning. He settles and I think the farther the better,” said trainer Brad Cox. ” He's got a lot of natural speed.”

10) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms. B-Nursery Place & Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $46,750. Last Start: Aqueduct Maiden win Nov. 19. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP buy for Centennial Farms, was sent to trainer Todd Pletcher. According to DRF's Formulator, that owner/trainer partnership is a first (at least as far back as the database goes), and it got off to a good start when this nice-striding son of Blame won at first asking sprinting 6 ½ furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19.

Javier Castellano asked Litigate for just enough speed to attain a sweet stalking spot behind a three-way battle for the lead, then patiently took the overland route four deep through the turn. Litigate responded to several judicious cracks of the crop in upper stretch, was still third at the eighth pole, but finished up respectably under brisk hand urging to win by three-quarters of a length (76 Beyer).

Litigate will next try a first-level allowance/optional claimer Dec. 8 at Gulfstream. Every entrant in the field of eight is first-time Lasix, with none of them entered for a tag.

11) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $322,815. Last Start: Won Nov. 26 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Kentucky Derby Points: 12.

Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) sprung a 14-1 upset at Saratoga in his seven-furlong debut, then was one of four next-out stakes winners to emerge from the key Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland, a race in which he rallied from tenth to get fourth. That effort was good enough to merit favoritism in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 26 at Churchill.

This $200,000 KEESEP colorbearer for Gold Square, LLC, and trainer Brad Cox was slightly hesitant at the start, then kicked into a smooth stride. After going four wide into the first turn, Instant Coffee tucked into the three path to be a midpack fifth behind a slow pace down the backstraight, then was roused assertively by Luis Saez some 3 ½ furlongs from home while again four deep on the bend.

He gave up even more ground off the final turn, but doing so freed Instant Coffee from a logjam of tiring horses toward the inside, and he responded to Saez' repeated rousing with a grinding tenacity. He momentarily shied from the outward shifting of a more physically imposing rival shortly after grabbing a brief lead at the eighth pole, but only for a stride or two before leveling off with purpose to win by 1 ¼ lengths.

Instant Coffee's lack of progression based on Beyers (debut of 85, then 81 and 82) kept him from being ranked higher at this early juncture of the season.

12) JACE'S ROAD (c, Quality Road–Out Post, by Silver Deputy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-Colts Neck Stables (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $510,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-0-1, $126,800. Last Start: Won Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds Dec. 26. Kentucky Derby Points: 13.

'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road, a $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, got back to his winning ways in the Gun Runner S. Dec. 26 as the second betting choice after what trainer Brad Cox had described as a “meltdown” eighth-place try as the beaten fave in his previous stakes attempt.

Owned in partnership by West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables, Jace's Road's Fair Grounds performance is best described as a no-nonsense wiring through moderate-tempo splits.

He got a bit of a break when the favorite stumbled at the start and was relegated to chase mode for most of the race, and the only challenger within sniffing distance of his 5 ½-length winning margin (90 Beyer) was a pick-up-the-pieces 23-1 long shot.

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Christened a 'TDN Rising Star' after he stylishly devastated a deep Keeneland maiden field Oct. 21 last year by over four lengths, the good-looking son of Tapwrit showed he had heart to the talent by fighting back to capture a Nov. 26 Churchill Downs allowance optional claiming contest to cap his juvenile season.

Wildly popular at the betting windows for this seasonal bow, to the tune of 3-5 favoritism, Victory Formation made the first Kentucky Derby points race a procession; breaking well enough and asked to use a bit of himself to secure his lead over Western Ghent (American Pharoah). The race was over from there as he galloped along through :23.20, :47.75, and 1:12.36 splits unchallenged with ears pricked. When Flavien Prat shook up his mount for the short run through the stretch to the wire, the colt responded by putting a comfortable three-length margin on his closing stablemate Angel of Empire and McPeek trainee Denington, who followed the latter in from the rear of the field.

With this 10 point pick up, Victory Formation now sits in a three-way tie for sixth with GII Remsen S. winner Dubyuhnell (Good Magic) and GII Los Alamitos Futurity victor Practical Move (Practical Joke) keeping him company. Angel of Empire is eleventh–though tied with six others including Denington–after claiming four points. Counting his exacta here, Brad Cox has a loaded hand thus far with six of the early top 20 in his barn.

“This horse has a great mind. He doesn't overdo it in the morning. He settles and I think the farther the better. He's got a lot of natural speed. He's able to put himself in good position and he was able to turn off and settle and finish up with good strides there,” said Cox. “The breeding suggested he would go long. You never really know [going two turns] until they do it. He has to confirm it. We have opinions, horses have the answers. He gave us the right answer today.”

#8 VICTORY FORMATION ($3.20) wins the SMARTY JONES STAKES! The 3 year old colt by TAPWRIT (@Gainesway) remains undefeated and earns 10 points in the KENTUCKY DERBY standings. Flavien Prat was aboard for @bradcoxracing who finished 1-2. Congrats to all the connections! pic.twitter.com/8PbtgD9UES

— TVG (@TVG) January 1, 2023

In addition to his Grade I-placed half-sister Bellamore (Empire Maker), Victory Formation also claims the dam of Italian stakes winner Sienna (Ger) (Amaron {GB}) as a half-relation. Smart N Soft, herself out of an accomplished racemare in GSW & MGSP Softly (Binalong), has a newly-turned 2-year-old filly by Karakontie (Jpn) as well as a yearling filly by Practical Joke. She visited Raging Bull (Fr) for a foal this season. This is the female family of GSW, track-record setter Coragil Cat (Forest Wildcat) and GSW Conquest Big E (Tapit). GI Kentucky Oaks-placed Til Forbid (Temperence Hill) also makes an appearance beneath the fourth dam. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

SMARTY JONES S., $250,000, Oaklawn, 1-1, 3yo, 1m, 1:38.14, ft.
1–VICTORY FORMATION, 119, c, 3, by Tapwrit
           1st Dam: Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike
           2nd Dam: Softly, by Binalong
           3rd Dam: Coragil, by Metfield
($100,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 EASMAY). 'TDN Rising Star'. 1ST BLACK TYPE WIN. O-Spendthrift Farm LLC and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, Inc.; B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Brad Cox; J-Flavien Prat. $152,750. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $282,285. *1/2 to Bellamore (Empire Maker), GISP, $284,040.
2–Angel of Empire, 118, c, 3, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor and Serve. ($32,000 RNA Wlg '20 KEENOV; $70,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). 1ST BLACK TYPE. O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad H. Cox. $47,000.
3–Denington, 118, c, 3, Gun Runner–Stronger Than Ever, by Congrats. 1ST BLACK TYPE. O/B-Fern Circle Stables and Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek) (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. $23,500.
Margins: 3, 3, HF. Odds: 0.60, 18.10, 6.80.
Also Ran: Western Ghent, How Did He Do That, Ten Days Later, Communication Memo, C. J's Storm.

The post Tapwrit’s Undefeated Victory Formation Victorious in Smarty Jones appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The post Tapwrit’s ‘TDN Rising Star’ Victory Formation Game in Second Win appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post