This is the territory inhabited by many small breeders, and in plenty of cases the margins between operating at a profit and a loss are very tight indeed. 

I am reminded here of a particularly interesting quote from Paul Thorman in the interview with Brian Sheerin which appeared in these pages earlier this week. 

Thorman said, “Fashion has never been stronger. We used to be able to sell yearlings by unpopular stallions. If they were good-looking horses out of reasonable mares, they'd find a level and sometimes that level was quite good. Sir Mark Prescott, Peter Makin, the likes of those people would always buy a good-looking horse by an unfashionable sire. Now, if you have picked the wrong sire, there is nobody for it. Stallions are never as good or bad as fashion says they are.”

This does rather underline just why first-season sires are so popular, with their stock often given plenty of benefit of doubt at their first few rounds of sales. It can also be of benefit to breeders to have hit upon the 'right sire' in his second or third crop if his first-crop runners make an impression. Look how well some breeders have done from using Havana Grey (GB) in the seasons in which he was £6,000 before he shot up to £55,000, or Ardad (Ire) at his lowest price of £4,000 in the year that his first runners took to the track.

There are educated guesses to be had if this is your modus operandi and if you've seen enough of a young stallion's stock at the sales to have given you a favourable impression of how well his runners might fare. But even the finest minds and best stockmen have been flummoxed by the unpredictability of the soaraway success for some stallions and perceived failures of others. It's all part of the beauty – and the frustration – of the breeding industry.

Take Your Chance 

These selections mean that you are spinning the wheel of chance with stallions who have runners this year or in the next two years. We will start with Lope Y Fernandez (Ire), who is at the National Stud at a fee of £8,500. Lope he's called and lope he does, this good-walking son of the highly successful Lope De Vega (Ire) who had 40 first-crop foals sell for an average just shy of £22,000. He also has a strong syndicate behind him, with the National Stud teaming up with Coolmore and Whitsbury Manor Stud. He covered 134 mares in his first crop, followed by 152 in 2023, so should have a decent representation of runners next year.

Some sons of Kodiac have been quick to make an impression and it will be interesting to see if the Flying Childers winner Ubettabelieveit (Ire), who stands at Mickley Stud for £5,000, will follow suit. He has first yearlings this year from an initial season in which he covered 96 mares, a figure which increased slightly to 105 in 2023. Breeding a mare to him this year means you will have a foal in the year of his first runners. Richard Kent and his family support their stallions, and that has been the case again with this horse. They breed plenty of winners at Mickley Stud, and it would be no surprise to see Ubettabelieveit represented by some early sorts.

In A'Ali (Ire) and Caturra (Ire) we find two more winners of the Flying Childers, both of whom were bred by Tally-Ho Stud by their home stallions Society Rock (Ire) and Mehmas (Ire) respectively (and don't forget that this was also the team behind 

Ardad and his son Perfect Power). They are a year apart in their retirement to stud with A'Ali having joined Newsells Park Stud in 2022. He also won the G2 Norfolk S., G2 Prix Robert Papin and G2 Sapphire S., and there were favourable comments and results for his first foals, which averaged £23,200 for the 14 sold.

Caturra is now alongside the aforementioned Ardad at Overbury Stud and, like A'Ali, stands for £5,000. He covered 109 mares in his first season and his foals will be appearing in the coming months. Mehmas's sons are appearing thick and fast, with Minzaal (Ire), Persian Force (Ire) and Supremacy (Ire) all at stud in Ireland, and Lusail (Ire) new to France. Caturra is his sole representative in Britain.

Ballyhane Stud's Sands Of Mali (Fr) is a horse with a very interesting profile. He was the co-second top lot at the now-defunct Tattersalls Ireland Ascot Breeze-up Sale and his unheralded sire Panis had a few people scratching their heads. But he had impressed a notable judge in Con Marnane at the Osarus Yearling Sale and then Matt Coleman took a chance on him as a breezer when buying him for the Cool Silk Partnership for £75,000. It was money well spent. He won the G2 Gimcrack S. and the next year followed up with victories in the G1 QIPCO Champion Sprint, G2 Sandy Lane S. and G3 Prix Sigy (the race named after the champion sprinter who appears in the fourth generation of his pedigree), as well as being a close second in the G1 Commonwealth Cup. 

Sands Of Mali is a good-looking horse with a lot more scope than some sprinters. Through his grandsire Miswaki he brings in a different strand of the Mr. Prospector sire-line than that more readily seen in these parts now through Dubawi (Ire), and his is a pedigree which should be open to plenty of mares. Indeed, plenty did visit him in his first book, but that 152 dropped to 74 and 56. His first runners this year could help to put him back on a similar upward curve to Ardad and at a fee of €5,000.

Don't You Forget About Me

It is hard to believe that Holy Roman Emperor (Ire) is now 20, and don't policemen look young these days? He's a grand horse, who in my mind is still that neat two-year-old who went down valiantly and so narrowly to the prize fighter Teofilo (Ire) in the Dewhurst, having already won the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. His stud entrance was hastened by the poor fertility of George Washington (Ire), so we only saw Holy Roman Emperor at two, and in his now-lengthy stud career he has assembled an impressive portfolio that makes his current fee of €8,000 very enticing.

It feels like Dream Ahead has spent most of his stud career being quietly good and not really gaining the recognition and support he deserves. He has two sons at stud in France, where he stood himself for four years after spending his first five seasons at Ballylinch Stud. Now he is at the speed-orientated Bearstone Stud, a sensible place for this top sprinter to be, and the farm is also home to his best daughter, the treble Group 1 winner Glass Slippers (GB). At £6,500, he is at his lowest fee yet and he is far better-credentialed than many younger sprinters at stud. If you have a fast, young mare, why wouldn't you take a chance on a horse who was an excellent racehorse and who has already shown that he can get a good one?

Mayson (GB) is in a similar boat. A July Cup winner who has sired a July Cup winner, he is standing in Ireland for the first time this year at Springfield House Stud for €4,250. Mayson has never covered big books – 90 in his first year, dropping down to 71, 54 and 41 in the last three seasons – but he has the potential to give you a speedy two-year-old who will train on and, as Oxted (GB) and Rohaan (Ire) have shown, he can get a classy individual too.

Owner-Breeder Selections

If you have the luxury of being an owner-breeder with a penchant for middle-distance and staying horses then there is plenty of value to be found by the top-class gallopers who have been recruited by National Hunt studs but could very clearly do a good dual-purpose job. I'd include former Horse of the Year Crystal Ocean (GB) in this bracket at €8,000, along with Haras de la Hetraie's gorgeous liver chestnut G1 Prix Ganay winner Mare Australis (Ire) at €4,500, and the Adlerflug (Ger) full-brothers In Swoop (Ger) and Ito (Ger), at The Beeches Stud and Yorton Farm respectively for €3,500 and £3,000.

And let's not forget an old favourite, Sixties Icon (GB), at Norman Court Stud, with his first-class pedigree and value fee of £3,000. He's far from one-dimensional as a stallion and gets winners across the distance range.

Interesting First Impression

Talking of Adlerflug, his son Iquitos (Ger) made a notable impression last year with only five runners from a total of seven foals in his first crop. His two winners from that set were both stakes winners, including the Group 2 winner and Group 1-placed Mr Hollywood (Ire), a TDN Rising Star who is worth following again this season. Iquitos, a treble Group 1 winner over 10 and 12 furlongs, covered a larger book of 32 mares in 2023 and has subsequently moved from Gestut Graditz to Gestut Rottgen, where he stands for €6,000 and should gain some extra support.

Breeder perspective: Fiona Denniff

Fiona and Mick Denniff of Denniff Farms have focused their attentions on breeding speedily-bred horses with notable success, much of which has stemmed from the purchase of Hill Welcome (GB) (Most Welcome {GB}), ancestress of Beat The Bank (GB), Chil Chil (GB), and Kachy (GB) among a raft of decent winners.

Typically, Fiona provides a pragmatic approach in considering this year's mating plans and admits that she has reduced her broodmare numbers.

She says, “I always add on £20,000 to the stud fee to think about whether I will break even. So if you're using a stallion at, say, £10,000, they've got to make £30,000 before I've made a profit selling them as a yearling, so really to make money and call them good value they've got to make £40,000.

“GBB has been fantastic for improving the lot of fillies but you still have to think very carefully about whether you would get £40,000 if your mare produced a filly.

“There will come along another Havana Grey at some point and those who are astute enough to use that stallion will make their money but you have to consider the flipside. I have sat outside stables waiting for people to come and I know what it's like when nobody does come. Last year was very difficult. I feel that the bottom market has gone and the middle has slipped down.

“Hopefully in this new year some of the factors which affected the sales in 2023 will go, but they won't all go. I'm pulling back on breeding because it's not as commercial at the moment, and I have always been very much in the commercial field.”

Denniff adds,”The reason I never went for middle-distance horses is firstly that I love the look of a sprinter, I love the shape of them. Secondly, when I first started, I couldn't get into a middle-distance pedigree for £3,000, which is what I bought Hill Welcome for. It wouldn't have bought me a good enough pedigree to get going, but for a sprinter it was a good enough pedigree.”

“I am sure among this group of stallions there will be another Havana Grey lurking there, but quite which one it will be is hard to say.

“I don't want to put people off breeding, because we need young blood coming in, and there is nothing better than the feeling of having bred a winner. I'd say that money can't buy that feeling, though of course money does buy it, but it is the best feeling in the world.”

TDN Value Podium

Bronze: Awtaad (Ire), Derrinstown Stud, €5,000

Awtaad remains one of the best value sires in Europe. The son of Cape Cross (Ire) had five black-type winners last year, putting some other much more expensive stallions to shame, and these included G1 Prix d'Ispahan winner Anmaat (Ire) and dual Grade I winner Anisette (GB). His global reach was extended by two Group 3 wins in Sydney for Diamil (Ire). 

His Listed-winning daughter Primo Bacio (Ire) sold for 1.1 million gns at Tattersalls in 2023 and while he had only a handful of yearlings sold last year, the previous season the returns had been decent enough, with 28 sold for an average just over £40,000.

Having dropped to 38 mares covered in 2022, Awtaad was back up to 79 last year, so someone loves him, and rightly so.

Silver: Intello (Ger), Haras de Beaumont, €8,000 

Intello spent his early years at stud alternating between Cheveley Park Stud and Haras du Quesnay, and he is just about to embark on his second season across the road from the latter at Haras de Beaumont. 

From his initial feel of £25,000 he has been at €8,000 for three seasons and that of course tells its own story, but he is clearly a capable sire, and while he may fall more into the owner-breeder category his yearling prices weren't too shabby last year: the 12 sold from 13 offered at Arqana October returned an average of €43,417 and a top price of €135,000. 

That may have been helped by Intello's five black-type winners last year, with Junko (GB) ending his year on a high with victory in the G1 Hong Kong Vase.

Gold: Without Parole (GB), Newsells Park Stud, £8,000

There is a growing surge of Frankel's stallion sons in the pipeline but Newsells Park Stud's Without Parole (GB) was among the first and the fastest, as the winner of the St James's Palace S. in 2018. He's now at £8,000 having opened at £10,000, and he has physical refinement to match his lovely pedigree. His half-brother Tamarkuz (Speightstown) preceded him at stud and won the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, while his dam, who brings some Lemon Drop Kid blood to the equation, was a half-sister to the GI Travers S. winner Stay Thirsty (Bernardini).

Thirty of Without Parole's first yearlings sold for an average of £35,700. His book size actually rose to 92 last year, after he covered 83 then 75 mares in his first two seasons. That is hopefully a sign that breeders were encouraged by his youngsters. He could surprise a few people this year and if he does, his fee would likely rise again. It could be a good time to jump aboard. 

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The move will come as a surprise to many, given the Rhode-based Veitch has just enjoyed his greatest year as a breeder after Minzaal scorched the Haydock turf when landing the G1 Sprint Cup, not least his wife Gay, who is taking a 'believe it when she sees it' approach to the decision. 

“He was one of the nicest foals we've sold for a long time. He could be a Derby or St Leger type of horse. That's what he was bred to be and the vibes that I am getting back on him are really good,” – Derek Veitch.

However, Veitch is concentrating on diversifying the Ringfort Stud brand, and explained how his decision has been made in the knowledge that none of his three kids have any desire to continue the famous breeding operation. 

He explained, “This year is slightly different for us because we've had a transition of assets over the past four years and it finishes this year in December 2023. I was 65 last weekend and the plan has been to cut back a lot. We started this plan five years ago so, what we will be doing this year will be the same as every other, in that we will foal down a good number of mares and get them back in foal. But, in June or July, things will be very different in that we are going to aim a lot of mares at sales and we will have a big reduction in the size of the farm and try to take things a little bit easier.”

He added, “We have three kids and none of them have any interest in the farm. We have to plan for the next 20 to 25 years without the kids coming in as a support structure on the farm. There's no point structuring the place so that it stays the same or possibly gets even bigger. We are trying to restructure and get to a point where we'd probably sell the farm to get to a small acreage. We could retire into that and not be what we are for the past 20 years. That's a big change. We've been here 22 years and have done nothing but expand since we got here.”

Many of the Ringfort mares are owned in partnership, meaning they will be offered at public auction, although no concrete plans have been made as to what sales they will be entered up at. While revealing mating plans to TDN Europe ahead of what promises to be another busy breeding season, Veitch explained how he could turn his hand to pinhooking foals or possibly racing horses in the future. 

He said, “I don't know if you can time a group of mares to be at their best to go to the sales but it's a necessary evil so that we can get to where we want to go and not still be killing myself working when I'm 75. The plan is to make things more manageable. In a way, that affords us to consolidate and concentrate on quality. It's also an opportunity to diversify into racing ownership a little bit more and to foal pinhooking rather than just breeding. We could run a slightly different business model and reinvent the Ringfort image. That's what we're trying to do this year. It will be more of a surprise to people, even Gay, if I actually do it. They don't think it's in my nature.

“They think I need to work to live. The plan is to try and balance the rest and relaxation element of life and emphasise that a lot more than the work end of it, which has been a necessity to get three kids through college and through private school. We had to work hard but we don't have to do that anymore if we reduce our number. Our partnership mares will go to the sales to be sold and there's a bunch who can't be sold because they're too old or if they have veterinary issues. Then there's younger mares who are unexposed and are maybe starting to breed this year. They could stay around for the next few years. That's the plan anyway.”

Asked how he feels stepping off the wheel, Veitch said, “I'd loved to have stepped off it at 21 and lived the high life but you can't do that. The idea of getting up at half six in the morning having been up all night foaling mares and then working all day, it's not appealing anymore, the whole novelty of that has worn off. As I said, we don't need to do it anymore because the kids have got their own jobs.”

The important milestone achieved with Minzaal, who Veitch intends to support with three or four mares during his debut season at Derrinstown Stud, helped fulfil a lifelong ambition for the breeder which Gay believes will help with the decision to scale back on the operation. 

She said, “You have to remember, Derek has to be doing something different otherwise he's bored. He's bred his Group 1 winner and he always said that he would breed until he got a Group 1 winner. Now that he has it, I suppose he can turn his hand to something else. He reinvents himself.”

Derek added, “Winning the race was a big thing but, being there on that particular day was unique because, nine times out of ten, it happens to be when we're sitting at home watching it on the television. It was lovely to be there on the day.”

And they have their daughter to thank for being there. With no intention of making the trip to Haydock for the race, a last-minute plan was hatched to support their superstar graduate, and boy was it worth it. 

Gay explained, “We were just lucky because our daughter lives in Manchester and she phoned to ask us what we were doing at the weekend. Derek was going to Newmarket for the Somerville Sale anyway, and my daughter asked did we know that Manchester was only half an hour away. She told us to get on a flight and come racing. It was pure fluke and was literally organised at the last minute.”

Derek added, “It was a nice fluke. It's a wee memory that is important about the whole thing and justifies getting up at night, rearing and bringing a foal to auction. It's an interesting journey and the story continues 50 minutes away from here at Derrinstown Stud. He seems to be popular and he's going to get plenty of mares so, if he is fertile, he could be a successful sire. He's had over 300 mare applications but they are limiting him to 175. We have three mares that will visit him.

“Rocana (GB) (Fastnet Rock {Aus}), the dam of Youth Spirit (Ire) (Camelot {GB}), who won the Chester Vase will visit Minzaal. She is the dam of a nice Australia (GB) colt who is in training with James Ferguson as well. I'd say that Australia horse is a dark one for this year and we're looking forward to seeing him run. I'd say he's a Group horse. He was one of the nicest foals we've sold for a long time. He could be a Derby or St Leger type of horse. That's what he was bred to be and the vibes that I am getting back on him are really good.”

He continued, “The other mares booked in to Minzaal are Shenoya (Fr) (Zoffany {Ire}) and Aunt Bee (Ire) (Australia {GB}). Shenoya is a young mare and her first foal was by Gleneagles (Ire) and we sold her to Cathy Grassick and she is gone into training with Joseph O'Brien. The second foal was by Ghaiyyath (Ire) and we sold her to Tally-Ho Stud for €130,000. We liked her a lot. She could be an Oaks filly. Aunt Bee is a stakes-placed mare and in foal to Bated Breath (GB). That will be her first foal. We've a mare in partnership with Corduff Stud, Boo Boo Bear (Ire) (Almutawakel I {GB}), and she will go to him as well.”

Along with Minzaal, Ringfort will support a nice blend of up-and-coming and proven stallions, with Baaeed, Sea The Stars, Ghaiyyath and Mehmas featuring on the list. 

Veitch said, “Coolminx (Ire) (One Cool Cat) will go to Baaeed (GB). She has a very nice Cracksman (GB) called Madly Truly (Ire), who I sold to Brendan Holland of Grove Stud for 95,000gns, but she subsequently sold to Joseph O'Brien and Justin Casse at Book 1 for 410,000gns. She's won her maiden at Naas and is well-regarded. She's a big filly and is very much a three-year-old. David Redvers bought the two-year-old by Profitable (Ire) for 65,000gns and she's one who could rock and roll in early June. She was bought to be a fast, precocious two-year-old and that's what she is. Coolminx is the dam of Fearby (Ire) (Havana Gold {Ire}), a nice horse we bred.

We haven't made any plan for the dam of Minzaal, Pardoven (Ire) (Clodovil {Ire}), who is in foal to Mehmas {Ire}). She is not due until April so we are going to see how she foals down. If everything is okay, we'll consider something for her rather than resting her for the year. There's a very nice mare called Daring Diva (GB) (Dansili {GB}), who has a big page. We sold the Violence filly out of her for €190,000 to Niall Brennan, who is a very good breeze-up man, so she could be a lovely breeze-up filly. He will do well with her. Daring Diva is the dam of Brooch (Empire Maker), who is the dam of Mandaloun (Into Mischief), the new Juddmonte stallion. It's a classy pedigree and Violence is an exciting stallion in America. We haven't organised who she will visit yet.” 

He added, “Woven Lace (GB) (Hard Spun) is in foal to Ghaiyyath and is almost ready to foal. She's going to Camelot. Like A Charm (Fr) (Charm Spirit {Ire}) is in foal to Zarak (Fr) and will go to Mehmas. La Australiana (Australia), the dam of the Kitten's Joy colt we sold to WH Bloodstock for 130,000gns last year, is in foal to Starman (GB) and is going to Kodiac (GB). We've a breeding right in Kodiac. 

African Moonlight is also worth a mention. She is the dam of Anmaat (Ire) (Awtaad {Ire}), a good horse for Owen Burrows last year, and her yearling filly by Kodiac was bought by John Dance for 300,000gns. She's a nice filly and we're looking forward to her. That mare is in foal to Palace Pier and will go to Sea The Stars (Ire). There's another mare in foal to Violence, who we bought in America, and her name is Air Cavalry (Air Force Blue). She's going to see Earthlight (Ire). I think that will be a good covering for her.

Indigo Lady (GB) (Sir Percy {GB}) has been very lucky for us in partnership with our friend Paul Hancock. She produced Indie Angel (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}), a winner at Royal Ascot. Indigo Lady is in foal to Dark Angel so she is carrying a full brother or sister to Indie Angel. She's going to Ghaiyyath this year.”

Not only is Ringfort's faith in Ghaiyyath notable, but the fact that the majority of the mares breeding on the farm were sourced for relatively small fees is another trend to emerge. The best example of that is Flare Of Firelight (Birdstone), the dam of Threat, who Veitch picked up for just 9,000gns in 2014 before selling privately to Juddmonte for a great deal more. Veitch may be winding down his operation this year, but he is not afraid to share some of the advice that has helped him grow his empire. 

He explained, “A workable number is ten mares. There's always two or three barren mares and you might only get four or five foals. Of those foals, you'd be lucky to get one or two that would ring a bell at the sales so, to make it pay, year on year, you need that sort of number. If you go below that number, it's never practical. You'd do better out of it by just buying the foals that you want at the sales. 

He added, “For me, it's never about the produce record of the dam at the time, but more about where she is. If she's in a good hotel and has been well-covered, then something will happen. I wouldn't buy a filly unless she has a very good third and fourth dam. It has to have great depth. But I would rather buy the 54-rated or the unraced filly out of a nice mare who was rated 100 plus or had minor black-type. That's the sort of thing that turns me on when I open the page.”

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Trained by Nigel Tinkler for owner Martin Webb, Ubettabelieveit won on his second start at two and followed that up with victory in the Listed National S. at Sandown. Dropping back to five furlongs after failing to see out the six in the G2 Gimcrack S., he then won the Flying Childers in a tight finish with subsequent Group 2 winner Sacred (Blame). He rounded off his productive juvenile campaign by finishing third in the GII Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf over 5½ furlongs at Keeneland.

“I'm delighted that Mickley Stud is to stand Ubettabelieveit as he's a really good-looking individual and son of the highly successful sire Kodiac, whose sons are proving to be sire sons as well,” said Richard Kent. “Kodi Bear (Ire), Adaay (Ire), Prince of Lir (Ire) and Coulsty (Ire) have all sired Group-winning 2-year-olds, and Ardad (Ire), who also won the Flying Childers Stakes, has sired the Middle Park and Prix Morny winner Perfect Power (Ire) from his first crop of impressive 2-year-old winners this season.”

He continued, “I'm grateful to Martin Webb and Nigel Tinkler for giving me the opportunity to acquire Ubettabelieveit and am also grateful that they are retaining shares in him and will be supporting him. We will be making shares available to breeders and will be announcing further details regarding his nomination fee after the conclusion of the October Yearling Sales.”

Trainer Nigel Tinkler added, “Ubettabelieveit is one of the fastest horses that I have trained and completely sound in every way. His attitude was completely professional and all he wanted to do was please you.”

Bred at Ringfort Stud by Derek and Gay Veitch, Ubettabelieveit is out of the juvenile winner Ladylishandra (Ire), herself a daughter of Flying Childers S. winner Mujadil and now the dam of four black-type winners. These include the dual Group 3 winner Tropical Paradise (Ire) (Verglas {Ire}) and listed Rothesay S. winner Shenanigans (Ire) (Arcano {Ire}). Ubettabelieveit shares his fourth dam Dinner Partner (Tom Fool) with Noverre (Rahy), and she also features as the grandam of July Cup winner Ajdal (Northern Dancer).

Sold for 50,000gns at Book 1 of the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale to Roger Marley and John Cullinan of Church Farm and Horse Park Stud, Ubettabelieveit was originally catalogued for the Goffs UK Breeze-up Sale but was sold privately to Tinkler when the 2020 breeze-up season was delayed by the Covid-enforced lockdown.

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Acklam Express could resurface in the G3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint on Super Saturday Mar. 6, or wait for the G1 Al Quoz Sprint on Dubai World Cup night on Mar. 27.

“He ran a marvellous race,” Tinkler said. “He's very well, came out of the race absolutely fine. He's entered for Super Saturday. He might run there. We'll know in a few days if we've got an invite for World Cup night. If he gets an invite for that, he might just go straight there.”

Tinkler provided an update on another speedy 3-year-old in his North Yorkshire yard, Martin Webb's G2 Flying Childers S. winner and G2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint third Ubettabelieveit (GB) (Kodiac {GB}).

“He went to Mark Dwyer's for the winter,” Tinkler said. “He's been back three weeks, and we're very happy with him. We don't know what races there are, because we've only got the programme book until April. The next one doesn't come out for a fortnight, so I can't say anything concrete. In a normal year we'd look at the something like the [G2] Temple S. or a race at York at the May meeting, before going to Royal Ascot. I don't think he's going to go beyond five furlongs.”

Tinkler reflected on the situation of having two exciting pattern-level 3-year-olds in the yard, saying, “It's just amazing to think one of them is rated 110 and the other is rated 109–and they live next door to each other,” he said. “They were two of the fastest 2-year-olds in the UK last season–over five furlongs there won't be many rated higher, and they are next-door neighbours. It's unbelievable, it's just fortune.”

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Golden Pal (Uncle Mo) is the first foal out of Randal Lowe's homebred Lady Shipman, who ran second in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint in 2015, the last time the World Championships were held at Keeneland. Racing for Lowe, Golden Pal went one better with a front-running 3/4-length triumph over Cowan (11-1).

Golden Pal is named in honor of owner/breeder Lowe's mentor, John C. Mabee. Mabee operated Golden Eagle Farm, and his best horse was Best Pal, hence Golden Pal. The colt is 35-year industry veteran Lowe's first winner in the Breeders' Cup.

It was the second straight victory in the Juvenile Turf Sprint for trainer Wesley Ward, who won the race last year with Four Wheel Drive. Coming off a win in the previous race, the TAA Stakes with Rocketry, jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. piloted Golden Pal through the 5 1/2 furlong contest over Keeneland's “good” turf course and stopped the clock in 1:02.82.

Golden Pal out-broke the rest of the field at the start, leaping out to a two-length advantage in the backstretch. Ortiz tried for a sixteenth of a mile to gently ease the colt back off the bridle, but before the half-mile pole the jockey had to reach down and grab the reins hard to slow Golden Pal down. Even with the head-tossing and giving up his early lead, Golden Pal marked the first quarter in 21.62 seconds.

Stablemate Blame the Booze was also prominently placed early, but Golden Pal surged ahead by the quarter pole to again have a two-length lead over the rest of the field.

Meanwhile, Ubettabelieveit totally missed the break and spotted the field several lengths out of the gate. The Nigel Tinkler-trained colt wove through the field around the bend and was making up a ton of ground in the stretch.

Cowan also came from off the pace, inching into Golden Pal's lead in the final strides to nab second, beaten three-quarters of a length for trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. Ubettabelieveit rallied to finish another 1 3/4 lengths back in third, while Lipzzaner was fourth.

“He's just amazing,” Ward said of the winner. “I got a little worried on the backside. Irad kind of lost a little momentum there and took a pretty good hold of him, but then he just accelerated down the lane. When he accelerated past the quarter-pole, I knew we were O.K. I got a little worried on the last part and was hugging onto my son, but we got there. He's a champion colt. Thank God (Randy Lowe) gave him to me to train. I really appreciate it. (Next year's Breeders' Cup) is where we're heading, but first we're going to Royal Ascot. Here we come. He's going to get them this year!” 

Bred in Florida by owner Randall Lowe, Golden Pal is out of the Midshipman mare Lady Shipman. The 13-time winner earned over $900,000 on the track, including multiple Grade 1 placings.

Her first colt finished second in his debut at Gulfstream in April, then traveled to Royal Ascot and was just beaten a neck in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes in June. Waiting until August to run Golden Pal again, Ward sent him out to finally break his maiden in the listed Skidmore Stakes at Saratoga. After giving his owner Lowe a first Breeders' Cup victory, Golden Pal's record stands at two wins and two seconds from four starts for earnings of $623,056.

Lowe said the colt will be given a break before coming back to Keeneland in April, then pointing to the Group 1 King's Stand at Royal Ascot and the Group 1 Nunthorpe after that, before a return to the Breeders' Cup next fall.

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“We had the choice of two horses and I actually rode them myself, and the Kodiac gave me a good feel so we made the purchase,” explained Tinkler, a former jockey who took out his trainers license in 1982. The Kodiac colt, bred by Derek and Gay Veitch’s Ringfort Stud and bought by Marley and Cullinan for 50,000gns at Tattersalls October Book 1 last year, is now named Ubettabelieveit (Ire), and on Friday he will become the first Breeders’ Cup starter for both Tinkler and the Webbs when he lines up in the five furlong GII Juvenile Turf Sprint.

“If it hadn’t been for Covid we probably wouldn’t have been able to afford him and he’d have made a lot more money at the bloodstock sales,” Tinkler reflected.

Martin Webb, who is visiting Kentucky for the first time this week with his wife Lisa, added, “Nigel picked this horse; there were four horses and two of them sold. There were two left, a Dandy Man and a Kodiac, and I said to Nigel, ‘you ride them and tell me what you like. I want your opinion.’ He got off the Kodiac and said, ‘this is the horse.'”

Tinkler’s premonition, over the last five months, has proven to be spot on. Ubettabelieveit finished fourth on debut at Doncaster over good to soft ground, but has won three of his four subsequent outings over better surfaces. He broke his maiden two weeks later in a Doncaster novice race under Oisin Murphy before taking the Listed National S. at Sandown under the same rider. He was disappointingly eased down to be last of nine when tackling six furlongs for the first time in the G2 Gimcrack S. at York on Aug. 21 after traveling freely early on, but put that blip behind him when reunited with Scott and dropped back down to five for the G2 Flying Childers S. at Doncaster on Sept. 11, winning by a head at 40-1 and giving his trainer his first Group 2 winner on the flat. Lisa Webb said they hadn’t even reached the winner’s enclosure that day before the Breeders’ Cup plan began to come to life. Tinkler said, “we got a text message from Max Pimlott, who works for the International Racing Bureau, to say the horse would definitely get an invite to come here. We could have run him in Newmarket in the [G3] Cornwallis [on Oct. 9] but we chose to take the chance and come here.”

“I’ve been training just under 40 years and it’s great to come here,” Tinkler added. “It’s sad there’s not a lot of people here but I’m still thrilled to be here. We’ve been very well looked after; we’ve been around to quite a few of the stud farms and found it very interesting. The place is just out of this world.”

The circumstances that saw Tinkler and the Webbs-who live in Cheshire and are in the business of road painting–develop a working relationship as well as a friendship were nearly as serendipitous as the ones that saw them wind up with Ubettabelieveit. About six years ago, the Webbs were at a charity dinner where a stable tour was among the auction items. With Martin having had a longtime interest in the game, the Webbs bid on and won the item. The tour was not for Tinkler’s yard, but when the trainer involved was unable to fulfill the engagement the event organizer connected the Webbs with another trainer he knew: Tinkler.

“They’ve been owners with me for five or six years now and we’ve been very fortunate,” Tinkler said. “We’ve had some nice horses, horses that have won at Ascot and Chester; they’ve been very lucky. They’re a lovely couple, they support me 100% and I support them and it’s great we’ve got this relationship.”

“Nigel and his wife, Kim, were both jockeys and Nigel’s father Colin was a trainer and a jockey, so it’s in their blood, as they say, and they live and breathe horses,” Lisa Webb said. “There are a lot of trainers we could have chosen, but with Nigel and Kim, we’re great friends. We’ve had some good times, we’ve been to Italy, to the Palio, with them.”

Martin added, “we’ve been very lucky, to be fair. Some people have these horses for years without having any joy. We’ve basically put all our faith in Nigel, and we can’t knock him; Northern trainers don’t seem to carry the same esteem as the Southern ones in the UK, but he’s done us proud.”

The Webbs and Tinkler are also keeping the faith in Ubettabelieveit’s young rider Rowan Scott, who got the ride back on the horse in the Flying Childers while Oisin Murphy was sitting out a suspension.

“Rowan gave the horse such a great ride [in the Flying Childers], so he deserves the ride here,” Martin said. “We want to support these people coming through. We could have had the pick of the jockeys; Hollie Doyle has won twice for us, Tom Eaves who is here riding Glass Slippers, he’s won for us. But Rowan deserves the ride. It’s a great opportunity for him and he’ll do exactly what you ask him to do. It’s not just another ride to him; he’ll give it everything.”

Tinkler said he thinks Ubettabelieve it has improved since his last run, and that he relies on the horse to tell him what he wants to do.

“He hasn’t had many races this year,” Tinkler said. “Our season basically finishes on Nov. 5; if it had continued a bit longer in England he might have had another run, but on the other hand he really needs good ground. He flew over last Friday and he’s been in tip-top form. He’s grown up a bit since the Flying Childers; he’s grown in height, but he’s also grown mentally. He’s a complete professional now. People have said, ‘what are you going to do with him?’ And I’ve said, ‘I’ll let him tell me what to do with him.’ He’s actually helped me to train him.

“He worked on the turf course [on Wednesday] and went around the bend really well, better than we actually expected, so we’re really looking forward to it. We’ve got a great draw in stall six; the favourite [Wesley Ward’s Golden Pal] has drawn 14 but he’s a very good horse and he’ll still take all the beating. But it gives us a little more of a chance him being drawn out there.”

In the meantime, the Webbs seem set to have plenty more fun in the racing game. Martin spoke of how they just recently retired the very first horse they bought and have kept him, and how they are following another of their former fillies in her new career as a polo horse. Still in their racing stable are the likes of Kaeso (GB) (Excelebration {Ire}), a winner of eight races who ran at Royal Ascot this year; and the 2-year-old gelding Isla Kai (Ire) (Awtaad {Ire}), who is named for their grandchildren and who won a Redcar maiden at second asking in September. The Webbs bought two yearlings this fall, including Isla Kai’s half-brother by Fast Company (Ire).

The Webbs said they are enjoying themselves so much on their first Breeders’ Cup visit that they’re already looking ahead to 2021.

“For us in England, Royal Ascot is our big meeting, but now the world is our oyster,” Lisa said. “The Breeders’ Cup is at Del Mar next year, so we need a horse to take there, too.”

Martin acknowledged that, as of Thursday morning, the pre-race excitement had already taken hold.

“I normally get nervous on the morning of the race, getting a few butterflies and that, but I’m already getting it now,” he said. “It’s that sort of occasion.”

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Quinn sends out his first Breeders’ Cup starter in the form of Ross Harmon’s Safe Voyage (Ire) (Fast Company {Ire}), and the gelding has hit his best stride this year at seven, taking Epsom’s Listed Surrey S., York’s G2 City of York S. and Leopardstown’s G2 Boomerang Mile prior to a strong third in the G1 Prix de la Foret. He lines up in Saturday’s GI Breeders’ Cup Mile.

“Early in the spring we thought the Breeders’ Cup could suit Safe Voyage,” said Quinn. “He’s got some very good form going left-handed. His best form before this season was over seven furlongs, but he dug deep when he won over a mile at Leopardstown, so the mile at Keeneland will hold no fears for him. He finished third in the Qatar Prix de la Foret at ParisLongchamp last time and has been in good form since that race at the start of October. He’s come out of that race well.”

“This is our first Breeders’ Cup runner and it’s wonderful for us,” Quinn added. “We’ve been training a long time and he has a live chance. It’s something we all aspire to.”

Ryan, meanwhile, looks to build on a second-place finish with East (GB) (Frankel {GB}) in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2018 at Churchill Downs. East was his first Breeders’ Cup runner, and this year Ryan has Bearstone Stud’s 2020 G1 Flying Five S. and 2019 G1 Prix de l’Abbaye winner Glass Slippers (GB) (Dream Ahead) for the GI Turf Sprint.

“The Breeders’ Cup has been on our mind all season,” Ryan said. “She won the ‘Win and You’re In’ race [the Flying Five] at The Curragh and also ran well [when second] in the Abbaye from a bad draw. She’s very versatile as far as the ground is concerned, but I think she is a better filly with some cut in the ground.”

Jumps jockey turned trainer Nigel Tinkler relies on the Listed National S. and G2 Flying Childers S. winner Ubettabelieveit (GB) (Kodiac {GB}) in Friday’s GII Juvenile Turf Sprint.

“I think he’s definitely improving. I think he’s better now than when he ran at Doncaster [in the Flying Childers],” Tinkler said. He noted he would prefer good ground at Keeneland.

“At the moment I think the ground is fine,” he added. “It does drain very well at Keeneland apparently, but soft ground would be a concern.”

Rowan Scott, who was aboard for the Flying Childers win on Sept. 11, will keep the ride.

“He’s a good lad,” Tinkler said. “Nothing really phases him, so I don’t think the occasion will be a big thing for him. He’s very level-headed and he’s young. I don’t have any qualms about putting him on.”

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