It's been a slow 2023 for the Richard Mandella trainee with only a pair of starts to his name and none since a weakening fourth in the GII Triple Bend S. May 27. In fact, the chestnut hasn't graced the winner's circle after a race since his victory on the Triple Crown trail in 2022's rendition of the GII San Felipe S.

The wagering public seemed to have their doubts as well, sending Forbidden Kingdom off at 4-1 facing a full field of 12 though notably only one runner who had contested this race in 2022. Started from the chute in a race that was meant to come down the hill, Forbidden Kingdom showed that early turn of foot from the middle of the gate and set right out to control the tempo with pressure to his outside by longshot Dancing Buck (War Dancer). The chestnut was under a tight hold through moderate fractions of :23.99 and :48.19 and, as the top pair swung off the turn together, it appeared for a moment as though Dancing Buck would outsprint his rival home. But Forbidden Kingdom turned back that challenge with a game run along the fence and refused to be headed again, opening up a minor advantage on the line.

“I always thought that he would like the grass but when I ran him as a two year old on it, he didn't do that good,” admitted Mandella. “He didn't know what he was doing back then. We've also been on kind of a losing streak with him a while, so my confidence level was not great. He's always trained like a really good horse and he is a really good horse. He fought an intestinal problem a year ago and it took I'm a while to get over it. I think now we are back in the game.”

#4 FORBIDDEN KINGDOM ($10.60) is victorious in his return, taking the $200,000 Joe Hernandez Stakes (G2) for trainer Richard Mandella and jockey Flavien Prat. The 4YO son of American Pharoah (@coolmoreamerica) picks up his third graded victory. pic.twitter.com/l20mXdA0LQ

— TVG (@TVG) December 30, 2023

Pedigree Note:

A $300,000 Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearling, Forbidden Kingdom is one of four winners for his graded-stakes winning dam and one of 41 stakes winners for Triple Crown hero American Pharoah. Just Louise, who last passed through the auction ring in 2013's FTKNOV sale in foal to Malibu Moon for just $150,000, is a half to MGSW and $550,000 2-year-old purchase Sara Louise (Malibu Moon), herself the dam of GSW Sara Street (Street Sense) and recent 'TDN Rising Star' Nash (Medaglia d'Oro). Juse Louise has an unraced 2-year-old filly by Not This Time and reported a full-sister to Forbidden Kingdom before returning to Not This Time for 2024.

Saturday, Santa Anita Park
JOE HERNANDEZ S.-GII, $203,500, Santa Anita, 12-30, 3yo/up, 6 1/2fT, 1:14.92, gd.
1–FORBIDDEN KINGDOM, 121, c, 4, by American Pharoah
1st Dam: Just Louise (GSW), by Five Star Day
2nd Dam: Kings Lynn, by Mt. Livermore
3rd Dam: Til Forbid, by Temperence Hill
($300,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL). O-MyRacehorse and Spendthrift
Farm LLC; B-Springhouse Farm (KY); T-Richard E. Mandella;
J-Flavien Prat. $120,000. Lifetime Record: GISP, 12-4-3-2,
$679,500. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style
pedigree.
2–Dancing Buck, 121, g, 5, War Dancer–Frivolous Buck, by
Catienus. O-J and N Stables and Diamond M Stable; B-J & N
Stables LLC (NY); T-Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.. $40,000.
3–Turn On The Jets (Ire), 121, g, 4, Mehmas (Ire)–Chiclet (Ire),
by Dandy Man (Ire). 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. O-Benowitz
Family Trust, CYBT, Michael Nentwig and Ray Pagano; B-Mr. D.
Byrne (IRE); T-Philip D'Amato. $24,000.
Margins: HF, 1 3/4, NK. Odds: 4.30, 13.50, 6.60.
Also Ran: Daniel's Magic, I'm A Gambler (Ire), Balnikhov (Ire), Lucky Score, Tahoe Sunrise, Johnny Podres, Front Run the Fed, Olympic Runner, Peaceful Waters. Scratched: Lovesick Blues.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs.
VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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“I would have liked to stay third or fourth and not wide,” said Fresu. “Unfortunately I was caught wide around the first turn and I didn't have any place to go, so I just tried to reduce pace, just to hold her there to save some energy and just give her a breather. At the quarter pole, I asked her because at Del Mar she had an exceptional turn of foot, so I just wanted to see if today at a mile she would have the same. When she switched leads, she just flew home.”

One of 18 stakes winners for sire Honor Code, Medoro is the first foal out of a half-sister to the dam of Perryville S. record-setter and new sire Nashville (Speightstown). Further back in the family is GI Kentucky Derby upsetter Giacomo (Holy Bull) along with MGISW Tiago (Pleasant Tap) and GSW/MGISP Stanwyck (Empire Maker). The winner has a Speightstown yearling half-brother and a weanling half-brother by Honor A.P. while her dam is pregnant to Not This Time. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

#7 MEDORO ($6.80) by Honor Code kicks it into high gear coming to the stretch to get up and win the $100,000 Blue Norther Stakes at Santa Anita. @Antonio1Fresu was in the irons for @EurtonRacing. Congrats to all the connections! pic.twitter.com/SmpZO5F7Cf

— TVG (@TVG) December 29, 2023

BLUE NORTHER S., $102,000, Santa Anita, 12-29, 2yo, f, 1mT, 1:35.80, fm.
1–MEDORO, 118, f, 2, by Honor Code
                1st Dam: Achira (MSP, $151,852), by English Channel
                2nd Dam: Styler, by Holy Bull
                3rd Dam: Set Them Free, by Stop the Music
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN. O-C R K Stable LLC; B-Parks Investment
Group, LLC (KY); T-Peter Eurton; J-Antonio Fresu. $60,000.
Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $96,600
2–Chatalas, 122, f, 2, Gun Runner–Indian Safari, by Indian
Charlie. O-Rancho Temescal Thoroughbred Partners, Dan J.
Agnew and William Chatalas; B-Dan Agnew (KY); T-Mark Glatt.
$20,000.
3–Mo Fox Givin, 120, f, 2, Mo Town–Givine (Fr), by Blackdoun
(Fr). ($2,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT). O-Woo Pig Stables; B-Liberty
Road Stables (KY); T-Leonard Powell. $12,000.
Margins: NK, 2, HF. Odds: 2.40, 8.40, 3.70.
Also Ran: Zona Verde (Ire), Antifona (Fr), April Vintage, Highlands, Hattie T, Blue Oasis.

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Returning to the track for his second start after being disqualified from second at Monmouth Aug. 6, WONDERFINN (Justify) enters off back-to-back bullet works Nov. 13 (four furlongs in :48 1/5 {1/14}) and Nov. 20 (three furlongs in :36 2/5 {1/11}). The 2-year-old is out of a full-sister to trio of prolific Galileo siblings led by G1 Tattersalls Irish Two Thousand Guineas winner Magician (Ire) along with GSW Apple Betty (Ire) and SW/GISP Outstanding (Ire), herself the dam of MGSW Masteroffoxhounds (War Front).

Making his debut, My G (Medaglia d'Oro) brought $400,000 from Spendthrift as a yearling at the Saratoga Select sale last year. Dam Perfect Note, herself a $800,000 FTKNOV broodmare buy, is out of MGISW Music Note (A.P. Indy), making her a half-sister to G1 Emirates Airline Dubai World Cup hero Mystic Guide (Ghostzapper). This is also the family of French G1SW Musical Chimies (In Excess {Ire}). The Todd Pletcher trainee fired a bullet of his own Dec. 16, going five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 (1/8). TJCIS PPS

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The announcement came one day after the 9-year-old gelding finished next to last in the GIII Sycamore at Keeneland.

“It's time,” part-owner Adam Wachtel said.

Channel Maker ran a record six times in the Breeders' Cup.

“I've never had a horse that's run at the highest level against the toughest competition from 2 through 9,” Wachtel said. “I love what Bill had to say about him after the Bowling Green; he said he's the happiest horse in the barn.”

Channel Maker ended his career with a record of 10-6-5 from 56 starts and career earnings of $3,915,983.

Wachtel said it is hoped that Channel Maker will take up residence at the Kentucky Horse Park's Hall of Champions in Lexington.

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“Overall, just a tremendous summer of quality racing,” Racing Secretary David Jerkens says. “Especially Pacific Classic Day. You look back and see how strong of a card that was. I think some of the winners and horses that ran well on that card have bright futures for the Breeders' Cup.”

The talk around the racing industry is the field sizes again this year at Del Mar.

“It was a robust number that I think any track in the country would kill for,” Jerkens says. “We knew last year would be difficult to match but we are very close to what we had last year. I think two years in a row, when you're over or hovering around nine runners a race, that's a pretty strong accomplishment.”

The average field size for the dirt races at Del Mar this summer was 8.47 and for the turf races it was 9.50. Stake races had an AFS of 8.56.

“We had a strong product throughout,” Jerkens notes. “We did have the (one day) weather cancellation but we made up all those races that were canceled.”

Tropical Storm Hilary was the only hiccup all summer. The storm prompted horse evacuations, canceled racing Aug. 20 and eventually dumped two inches of rain on the backside. But from all reports afterward, what little flooding there was in the stable area had no impact on the horses and things were back to normal in just a couple of days.

The “Ship & Win” program was a success once again this summer, contributing to the large field sizes.

“The results were pretty much what we expected,” Jerkens says. “I think we were 14% off the number of starters from last year but that was another expectation we had to curtail a bit because we knew, in reality, it would be hard to match. We may still end up with our second most  Ship & Win' runners.”

Heading into the final weekend, 171 “Ship & Win” starters debuted at Del Mar this summer. Twenty three made it to the winner's circle, six last week.

“You can do all these different programs,” Jerkens concedes, “but all that means nothing unless you get the support in the entry box. That's what we had from our horsemen once again.”

So, now we look ahead to the fall meet, something Jerkens has already started planning.

“Hopefully we'll have our stakes schedule released in the upcoming weeks,” Jerkens says. “We're starting to plant seeds for the fall. Generally, if the weather cooperates and we're able to run on the grass we'll have a successful meet. Last year everything went well, knock on wood. We were fortunate in terms of the weather. We had really strong fields our last two weekends and expectations are for more of the same, but a lot is dependent on the rain.”

The four-week Bing Crosby meet kicks off the week after the Breeders' Cup, November 10.

For Jerkens, the end of the summer meet is the end of a very long process that actually goes year round.

“Absolutely,” Jerkens says. “You hear from more people across the country than normal about them taking notice of what Del Mar had to offer this summer. I think we had the strongest day-to-day race product around this summer.”

“My staff worked really hard,” Jerkens continues. “There's a lot of planning that goes into it. You don't just show up Opening Day and here it is. But again, so many owners and trainers really want to be part of Del Mar and they provided tremendous support this summer.”

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Yet, by just about any measure, it was not a good meet. Saratoga came into 2023 with the wind at its back. Every year the racing seemed to get bigger, the handle would grow and more and more fans would pile into the historic racecourse. Taking out the covid year, handle had risen at Saratoga for five straight years.

Would Saratoga ever lose its momentum or would it keep growing exponentially?

It turned this year. The 12 fatalities, including two particularly gruesome ones that occurred in full view of packed grandstand and before a national TV audience, were as bad as it gets. How many racing fans were turned into ex-racing fans on those days? NYRA has always taken the safety of the horses and jockeys very seriously and will no doubt continue to put in place measures to keep both safe.

They have some control over horse safety, but none over the weather, which was a huge problem at the meet. During the 2022 meet, only 15 races came off the grass. Through Sunday of the 2023 meet, 65 races had come off the grass. There had been 189 grass races run in 2022 versus 129 this year. That always leads to the same problems. When races come off the turf there are always a number of scratches, typically creating off-the-turf races with four or five-horse fields. On Aug. 10, an off-the-turf race actually turned into a match race. This is stuff no one wants to bet on.

NYRA is ready to do what it can to address that problem. NYRA President and CEO Dave O'Rourke has said that there is serious interest in installing a synthetic track at Saratoga by the 2025 meet. It wouldn't replace either the dirt main track or the two turf courses but would give NYRA a third option when it comes to racing surfaces and the synthetic track would largely be put to use when the rains washed races off of the turf.

The weather has been a problem, but if you dig a bit further you can find some signs that Saratoga handle was affected by more than the rain. On GI Travers Day 2023, when two races came off the turf, the handle was $50,183,71. In 2022, the handle was $55,559,315 when one race came off the grass. This past Saturday, on GI Jockey Club Gold Cup Day, they bet $27,400,509 on a day not impacted by weather. The year before the handle was $32,505,600.

“I think what happened is with all the earlier rain we lost some momentum and when that happened it's hard to get it back,” O'Rourke said.

Field size fell by 2.5 percent, from 7.75 to 7.56. A more telling number was the average handle per betting interest. It was $255,773 this year and $272,599 last year, for a drop of 6.2%.

What's done is done and there's nothing to do now but turn the page and hope Saratoga 2024 is one of the safest meets in history and the weather is gorgeous from opening day to closing day. The place is still magical and popular, but everything peaks at some point. Maybe that's happened to Saratoga.

European Dominance On The Turf

This is getting a bit ridiculous. U.S. racing is used to second-flight European horses coming over and winning some of our biggest grass race, but the year European shippers are having this year shows that our grass horses are vastly inferior. Take Saturday's GIII $2 million Mint Millions at Kentucky Downs. There was only one European shipper in the field, Ancient Rome (War Front), who is trained by Charlie Hills and was ridden by Jamie Spencer. Facing the likes of GI winner Annapolis (War Front), he came into it off a win in a handicap race. Before that you had to go all the way back to 2021 for his last graded win, a victory in the GIII Prix des Chenes in France. He won that by a half-length. He won the Mint Millions by a half-length.

A week earlier, it was Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}). He came into the GI Sword Dancer after losing by 21 1/2 lengths in the GI King George VI and Queen Elizabeth I Stakes, where he went off at 125-1. Yet, that was good enough to win the Sword Dancer by 4 1/2 lengths. The win broke a nine-race losing streak, going back to the 2021 GI Belmont Derby where he also took advantage of a weak group of U.S. turf horses.

Then there's Aspen Grove (Ire) (Justify). She was sent off at 50-1 in the GI Irish 1,000 Guineas and finished last beaten 14 1/2 lengths. But that was good enough for her to take home first prize of $500,000 in the GI Belmont Oaks Invitational in her next outing.

Good luck to our horses in the Breeders' Cup turf races.

Surprise, Surprise, Still No News Out Of Saudi Arabia

Back in 2020, Maximum Security (New Year's Day) crossed the line in front in the 2020 $20 million Saudi Cup. Just a few days later, his trainer, Jason Servis, was arrested and charged with using performance-enhancing drugs on most of the horses in his barn. When that news broke, the Jockey Club of Saudi Arabia said it was withholding the purses until it could investigate the situation

It's been 29 months since Servis was indicted, he has pled guilty and in November will begin a four-year prison sentence. The case is over, but the Saudis still haven't paid out the purse. Presumably, the winner's share of $10 million will eventually go to Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute). But no one has been paid as the Saudis, who should have all the evidence they'll ever need, do nothing and don't seem to be in any hurry to write a check. We tried to get an update on the situation this week, but the answer we got didn't really answer anything.

“Due to the extended nature of the judicial process in the USA, the JCSA has been unable to fully conduct its own investigation into the awarding of the winner's prize for The Saudi Cup 2020,” wrote the JCSA's Sarah Tregoning in response to an email sent by the TDN. “Now that the legal process in the USA has finished, the JCSA expects to swiftly conclude its own investigation and make an announcement in the coming weeks.”

I wouldn't hold your breath.

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Both of the top two finishers, winner Sopran Basilea (Night of Thunder {Ire}) and runner up Ever Summer (Summer Front) suffered fatal injuries over the Saratoga turf in the last week. Sopran Basilea finished fourth in the GII Glens Falls S. Aug. 3 but injured her left foreleg on the gallop out and was humanely euthanized. Ever Summer sustained her injury in an allowance race Aug. 6 which also saw Frivole (Fr) (Anodin {Ire}), the last-place finisher in the Robert Dick, get pulled up after a misstep early in the race. Delaware's fourth-place runner, Talbeyah (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}) was a vet scratch out of that same allowance race the morning of Aug. 6.

The two scratched runners affected Friday, Parnac (Fr) (Zarak {Fr}) and Lady Rockstar (GB) (Frankel {GB}) were both reported to be fine.

“Of the seven starters exiting the Grade 3 Robert G. Dick Memorial at Delaware Park [7/1/23], two have suffered fatal injuries at Saratoga Race Course during the 2023 summer meet, one was eased and vanned off, and another was scratched out of a race at Saratoga based on the recommendation of the NYRA veterinarian,” said NYRA Vice President of Communications Patrick McKenna. “This highly unusual confluence cannot be ignored, which is why NYRA asked the trainers of Lady Rockstar and Parnac, the respective third and fifth-place finishers in the Robert G. Dick, to scratch from Race 3 today to allow for additional information to be gathered. To that end, PET scans will be performed on Lady Rockstar and Parnac at clinics chosen by their respective connections. The results will be evaluated by NYRA regulatory veterinarians and New York State Equine Medical Director Dr. Scott Palmer.”

“Should the PET scans and further examinations reveal nothing out of the ordinary, then those horses will be permitted to enter races during the summer meet,” McKenna continued. “While we understand this decision may be frustrating to the connections of Lady Rockstar and Parnac, the application of an extra level of scrutiny is appropriate in this instance. The health and safety of horses and jockeys competing at NYRA tracks is paramount. NYRA will apply the same requirements to all horses who started in the Robert G. Dick. NYRA will cover all costs associated with the PET scans.”

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When the gates flew in the Glens Falls, 45-1 Elegant Taste (Oxbow) emerged from the early fray with the lead. McKulick raced midpack in a good spot as most eyes focused on War Like Goddess in third as she visibly fought Joel Rosario, tossing her head repeatedly. After a first quarter in :24.84, War Like Goddess continued to appear agitated as Rosario restrained her. Tucked in on the rail behind the favorite, McKulick looked a far different matter as she appeared relaxed and comfortable. Things continued much the same through the half in :50.01 and six panels in 1:15.29 until the field bunched up considerably at the 1:39.53 mile marker. Last-out June 17 GIII Eatontown S. runner-up Vergara (Noble Mission {GB}) dismissed pacesetter Elegant Taste on the turn and took command as War Like Goddess loomed menacingly to her outside. With a sixteenth to go, War Like Goddess collared Vergara but it was McKulick who tipped out, swapped leads repeatedly, and bore down to find the wire first. She won by a neck as War Like Goddess held for second and April's GIII Orchid S. winner Amazing Grace (Ger) (Protectionist {Ger}) closed to steal third. Final time for the 12 furlongs on the inner turf was 2:27.05.

“Irad [Ortiz, Jr.] rode a masterful race,” said winning trainer Brown. “Early on when War Like Goddess had position ahead of us and was a little rank and such, he carefully stayed behind her. When she came off the rail down the backside before the final turn, Irad cleverly got off the rail as well and followed her and stayed away from the horse [Elegant Taste] that was stopping on the rail. All those moves, particularly that one down the backside really made the difference today.”

McKulick's biggest lifetime score came last summer in the GI Belmont Oaks Invitational S., while her last win was in the GIII Jockey Club Oaks Invitational S. last September at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet prior to an October runner-up finish in the GI Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S. at Keeneland. Put away for just over six months, the bay reappeared with an off-the board finish in the May 5 GIII Modesty S. at Churchill and a third in the GI New York S. June 9 at Belmont.

Brown said McKulick would likely head next to the GII Flower Bowl S. on Sept. 2 at the Spa at a furlong shorter. That race offers a “Win and You're In” berth to the GI Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf.

Chad Brown gets his first victory in the Glens Falls (G2) with MCKULICK and @iradortiz! #Saratoga pic.twitter.com/dvMgOrcQb9

— NYRA () (@TheNYRA) August 3, 2023

Pedigree Notes:

McKulick is one of 116 black-type winners in just eight crops of racing age for sire sensation Frankel (GB), who also has 80 graded/group winners. The majority of Frankel's top horses campaign in Europe, although five of the stakes winners by the Banstead Manor Stud stallion have reached the graded level in the U.S. McKulick ranks at the top of that list as his sole American Grade I winner to date, although the son of Galileo (Ire) also has a Canadian Grade I winner in Wild Beauty (GB).

While McKulick is Frankel's only black-type winner out of a daughter of Makfi (GB), who has 15 stakes winners as a broodmare sire and was sold to Japan prior to the 2017 breeding season, Makfi's sire, Dubawi (Ire), has proven to be quite a prolific cross with Frankel. The pair are responsible for eight of Frankel's black-type winners, including champions Adayar (Ire) and Homeless Songs (Ire), as well as this summer's G1 Prince of Wales's S. winner Mostahdaf (Ire) and two other graded/group winners.

McKulick's dam has also produced GSW-Eng & GSW-Ire Just Beautiful (GB) (Pride Of Dubai {Aus}), as well as GSW-Ger Fearless King (GB) (Kingman {GB}). She has an unraced 2-year-old filly by Calyx (GB) and a yearling filly by Pinatubo (Ire).

Thursday, Saratoga Race Course
GLENS FALLS S.-GII, $250,000, Saratoga, 8-3, 4yo/up, f/m, 1 1/2mT, 2:27.05, fm.
1–MCKULICK (GB), 120, f, 4, by Frankel (GB)
                1st Dam: Astrelle (Ire) (GSP-Eng), by Makfi (GB)
                2nd Dam: Miss Mariduff, by Hussonet
                3rd Dam: Sopran Mariduff (GB), by Persian Bold (Ire)
(180,000gns Ylg '20 TATOCT). O-Klaravich Stables, Inc.; B-Essafinaat UK Ltd (GB); T-Chad C. Brown; J-Irad Ortiz, Jr. $137,500. Lifetime Record: GISW, 11-4-4-2, $1,405,720. *1/2 to Fearless King (GB) (Kingman {GB}), GSW-Ger; 1/2 to Just Beautiful (GB) (Pride Of Dubai {Aus}), GSW-Ire, GSW-Eng, GSP-Fr, $209,461. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus* Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–War Like Goddess, 122, m, 6, English Channel–Misty North, by North Light (Ire). ($1,200 Wlg '17 KEENOV; $1,000 RNA Ylg '18 KEESEP; $30,000 2yo '19 OBSOPN). O-George Krikorian; B-Calumet Farm (KY); T-William I. Mott. $50,000.
3–Amazing Grace (Ger), 122, m, 5, Protectionist (Ger)–Amabelle (Ger), by Danehill Dancer (Ire). (€850,000 4yo '22 ARQDEC). O-Moyglare Stud Farm, Ltd.; B-Chr. Berglar (GER); T-Christophe Clement. $30,000.
Margins: NK, 2 1/4, HD. Odds: 4.20, 0.50, 7.90.
Also Ran: Sopran Basilea (Ire), Vergara, Virginia Joy (Ger), Elegant Taste.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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Horse racing has been down the path of synthetics before at Santa Anita, Del Mar, Keeneland, etc. Much time was lost, approximately a decade ago, with a focus on changing surfaces as a panacea for horse racing breakdowns. We now know there are other causes for horse breakdowns that are more prevailing. The greatest single cause of racing deaths has to do with pre-existing conditions of the horse, and only in particular instances is the surface itself the primary reason for horses breaking down while racing. Synthetics have found a role to play in the Industry but racing on synthetics exclusively means to change the sport itself in a fundamental way: from breeding, to handicapping, to the aesthetic beauty of competition–the reasons we are all fans of horse racing. And, changing to synthetics will not appease the critics if that is the motivation to do so.

But statistics show that horse racing deaths are less on synthetics than either dirt or turf. Surely safety must be the main focus with racing today. Yes, safety must be a central focus but there has to be some perspective. Horses also die in nature. The thoroughbred industry cannot be expected to prevent ALL deaths of horses and a comparison must be made as to how often and how horses die in nature to reach a fair, concise view of horse racing. Such a comparison, of course, is extremely conjectural. There are no thoroughbreds in nature and not many other horse breeds in nature today at all. Experts from many areas would have to weigh in on such a comparison.

In other words, the approach to the issue of horse racing deaths in general, that is, how the question is posed, is false. So too is the case for synthetics falsely stated. Are we to believe that horses somehow have more trouble competing on dirt and turf than fabricated material? Biology and evolution would initially say otherwise. Similarly, are we to suppose that the breeding of thoroughbred horses is inherently producing unsound animals? Again, general evolutionary changes of such a magnitude would take time. To make such an argument, geneticists would have to be consulted to ascertain that thoroughbred breeding practices are actually producing inherently unsound horses. But first things first. Looking mainly into the track surface and or scrutinizing breeding operations are not the places to begin when investigating horse racing breakdowns.

Back to the statistics. Statistics don't lie. More horses break down on dirt or turf than synthetics per Jockey Club figures. But statistics don't always give answers either. Indeed, the overall sample size in the Jockey Club figures in the aggregate is large but the fact that the number of dirt races were about 7 times more than synthetic races is a cause for pause in a comparison.  Sample sizes are usually uniform in the scientific method. And when looking at individual tracks per year, the sample size is quite small when considering dirt races only. A track can thus vary markedly from year to year in horse fatalities as the Jockey Club statistics indicate.

And the sample has to be RANDOM.  Horses that are selected to compete on synthetics are not randomly chosen. That is, the two populations: horses that run on dirt and horses that run on synthetic are not uniform. So the synthetic numbers for horse fatalities that are generally lower than for dirt fatalities may or may not be because of the surface. The fact that both are samples of thoroughbreds is not rigorous enough to make a valid comparison. The sample population has to be random. A random sample also compensates for genetic variation in a species. The best argument for synthetics in terms of the data comes from Gulfstream Park in 2022. At Gulfstream, there were about 7000 starts on synthetic with one fatality whereas there were about 6000 starts with 8 fatalities on dirt. At least the number of starts were comparable at the same track for each surface but again, horses were selected by trainers for various reasons to race on synthetic rather than dirt. Better comparison of the two surfaces–but still not a random sample of the horse population at Gulfstream and one year is not nearly enough to draw any serious conclusions.

Action at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida | Bill Denver/EQUI-PHOTO

Any glance at aggregate statistics for analysis would have to consider figures after 2019 after the implementation of new safety protocol stemming from the racing deaths at Santa Anita that year. But even here, with a seemingly logical approach to the data on racing breakdowns, a comparison is problematic. There are inexplicably low dirt rates of fatalities (say below 1 per 1000) before 2019 with dirt racing at various tracks that, in other years, had higher rates of about 2 per 1000. Such variability calls into question any definitive conclusion about track by track breakdowns relating to surface only.

What we do know is that Del Mar, Santa Anita and Keeneland have had remarkably low rates of fatality on dirt the last 2-3 years. For example, Keeneland had 3 deaths from 2020 to 2022 in almost 5000 starts or about 0.6 per 1000. Del Mar had none from 2021 to 2022 with almost 4000 starts. Such figures compare favorably with the lowest synthetic figures. Given these Keeneland and Del Mar figures it is a stretch to say that dirt racing is inherently or significantly more dangerous than synthetic racing. The question does remain: are these rates extendable over time? If the safety reforms in horse racing continue and are enhanced, the chances are they can be.

What we can say with some assurance is that all horse racing death rates are going down from year to year. The average rate of horse death for 2022, in an industry where safety reforms have not been sufficiently generalized, was 1.25 deaths per thousand. Still, it is too early to draw conclusions about horse racing deaths (especially in the wake of the recent spate of breakdowns at Churchill) until the new protocol is agreed to and generalized throughout the industry and a number of years with such protocol in place has passed. The hard work of putting in the safety measures is just beginning.

Horses run slower on synthetics than dirt. Is running fast then a problem? There are many misconceptions here. The issue is not speed but how often a horse is asked to race at high speed. Here the veterinarians can chime in to assist trainers with their training and racing schedules. A dialogue should ensue on best practices. A horse can race more often if it is running easily. A horse in a grade I race cannot race as often as winning at that level usually requires maximum effort. So comparisons by racing fans of one horse's schedule to another are not valid. Each horse is different both in terms of circumstance and genetic variation and trainers must be more in tune with their vets moving forward not just on a horse's ailments and therapeutic medication but on their racing schedule itself.

–Armen Antonian Ph.D

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The post Dirt, Turf, and Synthetic by the Numbers appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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