Race 1 (14:30)

WILLITGOAHEAD  186.5
FOUNTAIN HOUSE  123.2
KNOCKIEL SYNGE  59.2
KEEP ON DREAMING  54.7
FOUND A STAR  49.8
EMPIRE SOLDIER  48.5
SAMDEGODA  48.2
GRANGE SOLDIER  45.5
TURNUPDEVOLUME 41.8

Race 2 (15:05)

KRABAT  175.5
SAN HILARIO  74.5
ALMUHIT  70.7
DAYLATEDOLLARSHORT  60.5
BRIGHT LEGEND  55.8
POWERFUL  53.8
ONLYMAMMYCANLOVEME  53.2
FRESHERS WEEK  53.2
JUDICIAL DEFERENCE  52.8
GRANDERO BELLO  52.2
PAT’S LEGACY  52
STICWITHTHEPROCESS  49.7
UNION PARK  46.5
LAUGHING JOHN  46.8
WHATSAVAILABLE  45.8
MUST GO NOW  42.8
ONEFORTHEDITCH  42.2
ASSERTIVE WALK  41
ACCUSTOMED  39.5
KOBALT ST GEORGES  38.2
ANOTHER HIGH FIVE  36.8
MOYLUSSA  33.2
FAIRLANDER  32.8
MOAB  32.5
RAKKI  29.3
MOON MISSION  22.5

Race 3 (15:40)

KARBAU 141
MODE AVION  111.8
TOUCH ME NOT  81.5
KHRISMA  81.2
WASHINGTON  59.8
KALIX DELABARRIERE  55.5
PUTAPOUNDINTHEJAR  54
I’M SLIPPY  52.5
MURCIA 52.3
WE’RE RED AND BLUE  52.3
JET TO MONTE CARLO  50.8
LORD ERSKINE  49.2
DAVY CROCKETT  42
FULL OF LIFE  41.8
ROCKYMOUNTAINBLEU  40.5
AUTUMN TWIST  39.2
LARZAC  37.8
MESSERSCHMITT  37.5
BALKO D’ANGE  32.5
FRANKENDAEL  31.5
ARCH EMPIRE  28.8

Race 4 (16:15)

KOKTAIL BRUT  156.5
SOBER  102
BLAKE  68.2
SKYLIGHT HUSTLE  68.2
TOO BOSSY FOR US  61
EL CAIROS  58.5
LE LABO  57.5
EACHTOTHEIROWN  45.7
FREE SPIRIT  43.8

Race 5 (16:50)

KITZBUHEL  133.3
OSCARS BROTHER  92.5
KAPPA JY PYKE  83.3
PREDATORS GOLD  74.7
FLEUR IN THE PARK  69.3
JULY FLOWER  59.8
NOWWHATDOYOUTHINK  57
WESTERN FOLD  52.2
SPANISH HARLEM  42.2
LOVELY HURLING  (No Rating)

Race 6 (17:25)

MASTERTOWN MISS  89.5
HUNTIN BOOTS  58.2
MENTO  33.8
ALTESSE DU LUY  34
ABBEYGLEN  32.3
ADIFFERENTBALLOWAX  32.3
BACHARACH  32.3
GILI ISLAND  32.3
STRATEGIC  32.3
TACOGRAPH  31.5
CASINO CHIP  29.8
NOBLE INDULGENCE  29.8
SIERRASCOPE  29.8
WHISPERED VERDICT  29.8
BARSTOOL PROPHET  29.8
BIRDIE CONWAY  29.8
GOLIATH’S SUN  33.2
SHARE A DREAM  29.8
DOOKS  56.2
VA LA VIE  (No Rating)

Race 7 (18:05)

IL ETAIT TEMPS  166
ENERGUMENE  145
MAJBOROUGH  84
MARINE NATIONALE  78.7
BLOOD DESTINY  69.2

Race 8 (18:35)

RED SEAGULL  117.2
BUNKER BUSTER  52
ITS MY TWIST  36.5
HARTFORD  31.2
BALLYADAM STAR  29
KINBARA FIFTYFIFTY  29
DELAMOTTE  27.3
IGNITE THE MOMENT  27.2
BLUE NUDE  24.8
MR RAGSTONE  24.8
EAMON’S DREAM  23.2
EVANS WISHES  23.2
ROBBIE DIAMONDS  23.2
ROSSNOWLAGH  23.2
SUMMER BEE  23.2
TEOFIL  23.2
GOTAWINNERINYOU  23.2
PRETTY FORTUNATE  23.2
SENORITA DIANA  23.2
JERPOINT ABBEY  20.5

13:20

Talk The Talk  24.89
Old Park Star  22.30
Sober Glory  16.61
Leader D’allier  14.72
Mydaddypaddy  12.96
Mighty Park  12.74
Koktail Brut  11.70
Baron Noir  11.07
Too Bossy For Us 10.08
El Cairos  9.05
Eachtotheirown  7.13
Sageborough  5.75

14:00

Lulamba  42.40
Kopek Des Bordes  38.92
Kargese  25.61
Steel Ally  20.81
Jax Junior  18.22
Mambonumberfive  12.35
Hansard  9.42

14:40

Manlaga  26.04
Ammes  21.74
The Mighty Celt  18.14
Mustang Du Breuil  18.02
Saratoga  14.54
Paddockwood  14.52
Pourquois Pas Papa  13.20
Madness D’elle  12.96
Winston Junior  12.21
Barbizon  9.75
Bibe Mus  8.93
Macktoad  8.58
Glen To Glen  8.51
Harwa  8.12
Bertutea  7.42
Mino Des Mottes  7.24
Dignam  7.14
Klycot  6.89
Quinta Do Lago  6.48
Bandjo  6.47
Hardy Stuff  5.11
Ole Ole  4.34

15:20

Jagwar  41.44
Quebecois  20.14
The Doyen Chief  18.85
Myretown  14.40
Handstands  13.63
Leave Of Absence  12.61
Resplendent Grey  12.46
Hyland  12.20
Iroko 12.01
Stolen Silver  10.32
Blow Your Wad  9.72
Konfusion  9.38
Imperial Saint  9.32
Johnnywho  9.32
Patter Merchant  8.55
Knight Of Allen  8.10
Blaze The Way  7.39
Margaret’s Legacy  7.38
Search For Glory  7.20
Filanderer  6.30
Eyed  6.20
The Short Go  5.06

16:00

Lossiemouth  46.44
Brighterdaysahead  32.04
Golden Ace  22.73
The New Lion  21.93
Tutti Quanti  15.48
Anzadam  11.47
Alexei  11.23
Poniros  9.23
Workahead  8.15

16:40

Guard Your Dreams  34.20
Jipcot  22.17
No Questions Asked  19.62
Western Zephyr  17.03
Madara  15.84
Booster Bob  14.81
Riskintheground  12.75
Theatre Native  12.44
Boombawn  11.59
Down Memory Lane  10.93
Dee Capo  10.88
Mclaurey  10.57
Downmexicoway  10.37
Moon D’orange  10.19
Grandeur D’ame  9.09
Jungle Boogie  8.37
O’moore Park  8.27
Embittered  7.28
Yes Indeed  8.10
Midnight It Is  6.40
Zurich  5.33
Will The Wise  5.25
Peaky Boy  1.17

17:20

Holloway Queen 21.66
Wade Out 20.52
Newton Tornado 17.20
Pic Roc 14.84
One Big Bang 13.74
Grand Geste 13.38
Guard The Moon 13.18
King Of Answers 11.97
First Confession 11.13
Kurasso Blue 10.80
Backmersackme 10.38
Walking On Air 9.30
Silver Thorn 8.37
Will Do 8.25
Holokea 7.02
Iceberg Theory 6.86
Union Station 5.66

The going is currently Good to Soft (Good in places) on the Old Course.

Key Trends (Last 12 Years)

1. The “Mare” Era (4/12): 33% of recent winners have been mares receiving the 7lb allowance. In this specific field, the top three in the betting are all mares.
2. Age (12/12): Every winner since 2013 was aged 6, 7, or 8. (The New Lion is 7; Lossiemouth is 7; Brighterdaysahead is 7).
3. Cheltenham Festival Form (10/12): Winners almost always have a previous win or top-three finish at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
4. Last Time Out (11/12): 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top two on their final start before Cheltenham.
5. Grade 1 Success (12/12): A previous Grade 1 win is a non-negotiable statistical requirement.

—

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. LOSSIEMOUTH (W.P. Mullins)

Trend Fit: Perfect. A 7-year-old mare (ideal age) with three previous Festival wins (Triumph and 2x Mares’). She receives the 7lb allowance and is unbeaten at Cheltenham.
Verdict: She is the “statistical lock.” Although beaten by Brighterdaysahead on heavy ground at Leopardstown, the return to Good to Soft and her flawless course record make her the primary trend pick. The application of first-time cheekpieces is a classic Mullins “sharpening” move.

2. THE NEW LION (Dan Skelton)

Trend Fit: Strong. A 7-year-old who won the Turners at this meeting last year. He is 5-for-5 in completed hurdle starts and won the Unibet Hurdle (Trials Day) on this course in January.
Verdict: He is the best of the “boys” and fits the “improving Grade 1 winner” trend perfectly. He is the main threat to the mares, especially with the Skelton yard’s exceptional strike rate this season.

3. BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (Gordon Elliott)

Trend Fit: High Class. A 7-year-old mare who beat Lossiemouth in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time out.
Verdict: While she is technically the “form” horse after her Leopardstown win, she has been beaten at the last two Cheltenham Festivals when sent off as favorite. Trends favor those with proven winning course form, which gives Lossiemouth the edge.

4. GOLDEN ACE (Jeremy Scott)

Trend Fit: Solid. The “defending champion” (won the 2025 renewal). She also won the Mares’ Novice at the 2024 Festival.
Verdict: She is a course specialist. While she capitalized on falls from leaders last year, her recent Grade 1 win in the Fighting Fifth proves she belongs at this level. She fits the “previous winner” trend perfectly but may find the top two slightly speedier on this ground.

5. TUTTI QUANTI (Paul Nicholls)

Trend Fit: The “Improver.” A 6-year-old (ideal age) supplemented for this race after a dominant win in the William Hill Hurdle.
Verdict: He is following the “Espoir d’Allen” trend—a young, rapidly improving horse supplemented late. However, he lacks the Grade 1 experience that all 12 of the last winners possessed.

6. ALEXEI (Joe Tizzard)

Trend Fit: 6-year-old, won the Greatwood Hurdle on this course earlier this season.
Verdict: A smart handicapper making the leap to Grade 1. Statistically, horses stepping up from handicaps struggle to beat established Grade 1 mares.

7. PONIROS / ANZADAM (W.P. Mullins)

Verdict: Both are 5/6-year-olds from the Mullins yard but were soundly beaten by the principals at Leopardstown. They fit the trainer trend but fall short on the “Last Time Out” and “Class” metrics.

8. WORKAHEAD (Henry de Bromhead)

Verdict: An 8-year-old outsider. While the trainer is a Champion Hurdle specialist (Honeysuckle), this horse’s recent form (50/1) is well below the required trend rating of 150+.

—

Final Trend-Based Ranking

1. Lossiemouth (Course form, 7lb allowance, and perfect age)
2. The New Lion (Best male prospect, unbeaten when completing, course winner)
3. Brighterdaysahead (Elite form, but lacks a Cheltenham win)
4. Golden Ace (Defending champ, but faces a tougher task this year)
5. Tutti Quanti (The interesting improver for place purposes)
6. Alexei (Best of the longshots due to course form)

With Romeo Coolio now confirmed for the Brown Advisory on Wednesday, here is the updated ranking for the 2:00 Arkle based on the latest 24-hour declarations and the drying ground conditions.

1. KOPEK DES BORDES (W.P. Mullins)

Ground Impact: Neutral/Positive. While he has form on soft, his high-cruising speed is ideally suited to Good to Soft.
Trend Match: The 6-year-old fits the “Supreme winner to Arkle” trend perfectly. With the extended run-in, his proven stamina from his hurdle days gives him the edge.
Verdict: He is the most complete trend pick for a race of this stature.

2. LULAMBA (Nicky Henderson)

Ground Impact: Very Positive. Henderson’s stars almost always prefer “Good” in the description. This ground allows him to use his slick, flat-racing-style jumping.
Trend Match: Still faces the “5-year-old” statistic (0 wins in 15 years), but his OR 163 is 5lbs clear of the field.
Verdict: The ground has moved in his favor. If he handles the hill after the long run-in, he could easily break the age trend.

3. KARGESE (W.P. Mullins)

Ground Impact: Positive. She thrived on Good to Soft when winning here last year.
Trend Match: A 6-year-old mare receiving a 7lb allowance. Her close second in the Irish Arkle is now the strongest piece of “trial” form left in the race.
Verdict: The most reliable each-way bet in the race. She is statistically “due” a win given the strength of the Irish Arkle form line.

4. STEEL ALLY (Sam Thomas)

Ground Impact: Negative. His best performances have come on deeper ground (Soft/Heavy). The drying surface might make this too much of a speed test for him.
Trend Match: An 8-year-old, which is slightly older than the ideal 6-7 bracket.
Verdict: A progressive jumper, but the ground and age trends suggest he may struggle to match the gears of the top three.

5. JAX JUNIOR (Lucy Wadham)

Ground Impact: Neutral.
Trend Match: 7-year-old, won a Grade 2 last time.
Verdict: His rating (146) is simply too low. Trends show winners are almost always rated 150+.

6. IRISH PANTHER (W.P. Mullins)

Ground Impact: Unknown.
Trend Match: Late addition to the primary contenders. While he represents Mullins, he lacks the Graded chase win that 11 of the last 12 winners possessed.
Verdict: Likely a pace-setter for his stablemates.

7. HANSARD / MAMBONUMBERFIVE

Verdict: Both are massive trend outsiders. Hansard is poorly handicapped on chase ratings, and Mambonumberfive is a 5-year-old with jumping concerns that the long run-in will likely exploit.

—

Final Ranking Summary

1. Kopek Des Bordes (Perfect age/trainer/stamina profile)
2. Lulamba (Class standout; ground suits, but age trend is the worry)
3. Kargese (Strongest form line + weight allowance)
4. Steel Ally (Sturdy but potentially outpaced)

The weather and ground report for tomorrow, Tuesday, March 10, 2026, have significantly clarified the picture for the Arkle. After a dry period and selective watering by Clerk of the Course Jon Pullin, the official going is now Good to Soft (Good in places).

The forecast for Tuesday is mainly dry with sunny intervals and highs of 14°C, though some light drizzle remains a possibility. Crucially, the final flight on the Old Course has been moved closer to the home bend due to wet patches earlier in the winter, creating a longer run-in that will test stamina and jumping fluency under pressure.

Historically, the winner is a 5 or 6-year-old who won last time out, is Irish-trained (specifically by Willie Mullins), and possesses an official rating (OR) near or above 150. .

The 2026 field features a standout trend-match in Old Park Star, but several Irish raiders fit the “Mullins/Elliott improver” mould that often strikes in this race.

Key Trends (Last 12 Years)

* Age (11/12): 5 and 6-year-olds dominate. (Only Appreciate It won as a 7yo).
* Trainer (9/12): Either Willie Mullins (6 wins) or Nicky Henderson (3 wins).
* Last Run (10/12): Finished 1st or 2nd on their previous start.
* Class (11/12): Had won a Graded race or a highly competitive maiden/novice.
* Rating (9/12): Typically requires a performance rated 148-153+ .

—

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. OLD PARK STAR (Nicky Henderson)

* Trend Fit: Strongest profile. A 6-year-old coming off a dominant 18-length win in the Grade 2 Rossington Main. His OR of 151 puts him exactly in the “150+ winner” bracket.
* Verdict: He has “Constitution Hill” vibes—unbeaten since joining Henderson and values-wise the best British hope in years. He hits almost every trend, including the Henderson-specific “top-class novice” metric.

2. MIGHTY PARK (W. P. Mullins)

* Trend Fit: 5-year-old, Irish-trained by the race’s most successful trainer. Won his last race (maiden) by 38 lengths.
* Verdict: While he lacks Graded experience, Mullins often brings a “hidden” superstar here (like Vautour or Douvan). His pedigree (related to Might Bite) and the style of his Fairyhouse win suggest he is the primary Irish trend-pick.

3. EL CAIROS (Gordon Elliott)

* Trend Fit: 6-year-old, won last time out at Thurles. Importantly, he was traveling like the winner in a Leopardstown Grade 1 before falling.
* Verdict: Elliott’s runners often thrive on the “redemption” trend. He has the high-cruising speed required for a Supreme and fits the age and trainer profile perfectly.

4. TALK THE TALK (Joseph O’Brien)

* Trend Fit: Proven Grade 1 winner at Leopardstown. Rated 153 , which is the highest-rated trend-match in the field.
* Verdict: Historically, the Leopardstown winner has the best conversion rate in the Supreme. He is the most seasoned of the Irish runners and fits the “class” trend better than any other.

5. LEADER D’ALLIER (W. P. Mullins)

* Trend Fit: 5-year-old French recruit. Won his last start at Punchestown.
* Verdict: He follows the “French-bred Mullins improver” trend (Klassic Dream style). He might be second-string in the betting but is a massive statistical threat.

6. SOBER GLORY (P. Hobbs & J. White)

* Trend Fit: 6-year-old, prolific winner (6 of 7 starts). Rated 148 .
* Verdict: A rare high-class British front-runner. While the yard doesn’t have the same Supreme strike rate as Mullins, he fits the rating and “won last time out” trends perfectly.

—

Final Trend-Based Ranking

1. Old Park Star (Maximum trend match: Top rating, Henderson-trained, 6yo)
2. Mighty Park (Trainer trend plus high potential/Mullins factor)
3. Talk The Talk (Class trend: Proven Grade 1 Irish winner)
4. El Cairos (Speed and trainer profile match)
5. Leader D’allier (French-bred improver trend)
6. Sober Glory (Best of the rest; fits rating and form metrics)

Statistical “Avoid”: Eachtotheirown (7-year-olds have a poor record) and Sageborough (rated too low at 126 to match the class trend).

Jesmond Dawn merits top billing after a valiant near-miss here over this precise course and distance last month, where he quickened purposefully to lead inside the final furlong before just being caught in the dying strides.

That effort, on the all-weather surface where he has consistently raised his game, highlighted his sharp current condition and suitability for these testing bends, and with just a minor penalty to carry, he appears primed to go one better in this field.

His experience in handling moderate gallops adds to his appeal, particularly from a midfield draw that should allow him to stalk the pace without undue expenditure.

King’s School commands respect following a battling victory over seven furlongs at Newcastle in late December last year, where he saw off a subsequent winner with evident relish after travelling comfortably throughout.

He has shown a marked affinity for this tapeta track, with all his best efforts emerging under standard conditions, and his ongoing fitness from a winter campaign suggests he remains a potent force at this level.

Flying Fletcher arrives on the back of a respectable fifth over six furlongs here earlier this month, keeping on gamely despite being denied a clear run at a crucial stage.

That run offered clear evidence of his well-being on the all-weather, where he has notched prior successes, and the step up in trip should unlock more from his grinding style, especially given his low draw that favours an economical passage.

Bobby Joe Leg has endured a leaner spell lately, with a sixth-placing at Southwell in early April representing his most recent effort of note before a summer break.

He boasts a strong record around these turns, including multiple triumphs over similar distances on tapeta, and a freshened-up return could see him revive if the surface suits his renewed vigour.

Gressington shaped with encouragement when third at Redcar 28 days ago, staying on strongly in the closing stages of a seven-furlong handicap despite racing prominently in a race lacking pace.

His all-weather exploits have been laced with promise, particularly at tracks with undulations like this, and with proven stamina at the trip, he holds every chance to build on that grit from a handy stall.

Asian Journey enters after a subdued showing at Ffos Las in early July, where he faded having shown early dash over a mile that stretched his limits.

However, he has flashed snippets of ability on all-weather surfaces in novice company, and a drop into handicaps for the first time could coax improvement if the leaders set a stronger rhythm.

Novak has been consistent without quite striking lately, filling tenth over six furlongs here in November after a tardy break from the gates that cost him dearly.

His recent second at Southwell over this distance confirmed his affinity for tapeta, and with regular action keeping him race-fit, he remains competitively handicapped to challenge if breaking sharper.

The Cookstown Cafu has course form to call upon, having placed here previously, but his latest tenth over six furlongs 10 days ago suggested the return to sprinting didn’t quite suit.

He copes well with standard going from past efforts, and the return to seven furlongs might elicit a more fluent display, though greater sharpness will be needed.

Bajan Bandit endured traffic issues when eighth over course and distance last month, but he kept on late once in the clear, hinting at retained ability.

His all-weather record is solid, with prior placings underscoring his track suitability, and a more patient ride could see him rally better in this company.

Maxi Boy laboured to last in a higher-grade affair here over seven furlongs in November, beaten a long way after being hampered in running.

He has the tools to do better on tapeta, but his recent lack of fluency tempers expectations without signs of a revival.

Wilde And Dandy faces a stiff task on the evidence of recent toils, with a distant finish at Wolverhampton last out offering little cheer.

The all-weather holds no fears, yet his current enthusiasm appears waning in handicaps.

Simulation Results:

Jesmond Dawn: 23.67% (implied 15/4).

King’s School: 17.89% (implied 9/2).

Flying Fletcher: 15.45% (implied 11/2).

Gressington: 12.34% (implied 7/1).

Novak: 10.23% (implied 8/1).

Bobby Joe Leg: 9.11% (implied 10/1).

Asian Journey: 6.78% (implied 14/1).

The Cookstown Cafu: 4.53% (implied 21/1).

Bajan Bandit: 0.00% (implied N/A).

Maxi Boy: 0.00% (implied N/A).

Wilde And Dandy: 0.00% (implied N/A).

The best bet is Jesmond Dawn, his track mastery and closing kick affording him the acme in the model.

Value selections spotlight Gressington at 9/1 live, undervalued relative to 7/1 implied odds considering his recent staying power.

Steamer bets nominate King’s School and Flying Fletcher, both with live prices (4/1 and 9/4) shortening from early marks (9/2 and 5/1) while featuring among the elite projections.

Machete merits the utmost respect after a solid third in a competitive handicap at Doncaster last month, where he travelled powerfully before keeping on resolutely despite the testing finish.

That marked a clear step forward from his earlier efforts since arriving from France, highlighting his adaptation to British methods and a clear liking for softer surfaces, though his prior all-weather runs suggest the standard going here will pose no issues.

With limited exposure at this trip, he brings untapped potential to the table, and his ongoing fitness from steady campaigning positions him ideally to strike in this grade.

Trojan Sun commands attention on the back of a determined victory at Musselburgh in October, where he dictated affairs and repelled all challengers in a gritty display of stamina.

He has thrived on the all-weather in winter campaigns, with prior success over similar trips confirming his affinity for the surface, and his recent sharpness under a top rider bodes well for a bold showing back at this venue.

Relocal arrives with progressive credentials, having filled the runner-up spot at Kempton recently after a slow start that cost him ground, yet he closed with menace once in the clear.

This was a marked improvement from his seasonal bow, underscoring his growing maturity and suitability for polytrack, where he has shown snippets of class, and a patient ride from the stalls could unlock further enhancement.

Haveyoumissedme has been a model of reliability in staying tests, producing a staying-on fourth at Haydock last time when denied a clear run in the straight but rallying gamely.

His record on all-weather tracks is laced with encouragement, particularly over extended distances, and with proven experience in handicaps, he remains competitively weighted to challenge if the pace holds up.

Loving Look shaped with promise when third over course and distance in September, making smooth progress before just finding one too good in a tactical affair.

She has a proven liking for this circuit’s undulations and the standard surface, where her best efforts have emerged, and her current well-being suggests she could mount a stronger bid with a more forward position.

Miners Gamble enters on the crest of a breakthrough success at Musselburgh in August, where he quickened smartly to score on his first attempt at this trip, revealing a new dimension to his ability.

That effort on good to soft ground hinted at versatility, but his prior all-weather placings add reassurance, and with the benefit of a pipe-opener since, he looks primed for another forward move.

Promethean has been knocking on the door lately, filling a close fourth at Southwell 25 days ago when staying on stoutly after a wide passage that cost him momentum.

He has a solid affinity for tapeta, with prior course form bolstering his claims, and his grinding style should ensure he features prominently if the leaders overdo it early.

Atlantic Sunset brings respectable continuity, having claimed second at Wolverhampton in his latest outing where he travelled well before just being collared late.

This confirmed his ongoing affinity for all-weather tracks, and with a drop in the weights since his last win, coupled with recent vigour, he holds every chance to reverse recent verdicts.

Return To Dubai has endured a testing spell, with a subdued sixth at Redcar last month offering little in the way of optimism on his return from a break.

However, he has flashed ability on all-weather surfaces in the past, and a first run for new connections could spark a revival, though greater fluency is required.

Annandale arrives after a middling fifth at Ayr recently, where she shaped with some early zip but faded in the closing stages.

She has occasional sparks on standard going, but her inconsistency tempers enthusiasm in this stronger field.

Zephlyn has toiled in recent handicaps, her latest effort yielding a distant finish at Musselburgh that offered scant encouragement.

The all-weather holds no fears on paper, yet her current form suggests she faces a stiff task to reverse the tide.

Simulation Results:

Machete: 22.45% (implied 7/2).

Trojan Sun: 17.89% (implied 9/2).

Relocal: 15.67% (implied 11/2).

Miners Gamble: 13.22% (implied 13/2).

Haveyoumissedme: 10.98% (implied 8/1).

Loving Look: 9.45% (implied 9/1).

Atlantic Sunset: 6.78% (implied 14/1).

Promethean: 3.56% (implied 27/1).

Return To Dubai: 0.00% (implied N/A).

Annandale: 0.00% (implied N/A).

Zephlyn: 0.00% (implied N/A).

The best bet is Machete, his progressive profile and stamina edge giving him primacy in the forecasts.

Value selections feature Relocal at 9/2 live, a compelling overlay against his 11/2 fair value, and Loving Look at 15/2 live, undervalued relative to 9/1 implied odds in view of her track suitability.

Steamer bets nominate Machete and Minors Gamble, with live quotes (9/4 and 5/1) showing marked contractions from early tags (7/2 and 10/1) while topping the simulated chances.

Chico Dulce arrives in cracking nick following a clear-cut victory over this precise course and distance last month, where he made smooth headway from off the pace before powering clear in the closing stages.

That marked a return to his best on the all-weather surface, where he has always shown the most aptitude, and the slight rise in the weights should not deter him from building on that effort in this similar contest.

His recent fitness is evident from regular action, and with a patient ride from the stalls, he holds every chance to dictate again.

Quite Sweet warrants strong consideration after scoring on turf last time, demonstrating improved resolve when grinding out success in a testing finish that played to her stamina.

She has shaped with promise in prior all-weather assignments, suggesting the switch back to this surface will hold no fears, and her ongoing progress under a canny handler positions her as a bold contender if the tempo suits.

Warrnambool has been a model of reliability on the all-weather lately, filling the runner-up spot here over a mile in October when staying on purposefully under pressure.

That effort confirmed his affinity for these conditions and the track’s undulations, while his consistent profile and recent sharpness indicate he remains competitively handicapped.

Rovinia has shown marked improvement since joining her current yard, with two solid efforts over similar trips highlighting her growing confidence and ability to handle the polytrack demands.

A recent staying-on third on turf was full of encouragement, and the return to this venue could unlock more, especially given her experience in handling moderate gallops.

Villalobos enters on the back of a respectable second at Kempton last month, where he travelled well before just being outstayed in the shadows of the post.

He has a proven liking for all-weather tracks, with prior successes on polytrack underscoring his suitability, and his current well-being suggests he could challenge stoutly if the leaders come back to him.

Jet Packer shaped with real encouragement when runner-up here 13 days ago, making late headway after a tardy start and keeping on gamely once in the firing line.

That was a career best on the all-weather, where he appears to act well around the turns, and with the benefit of that run under his belt, he looks primed to go one better.

Haveagobeau has been knocking on the door consistently, rallying to claim fourth over course and distance in November despite racing wide for much of the journey.

His tenacity in the finish that day bodes well for these conditions, and a more economical trip from the draw could see him mount a stronger case in this field.

Celtic John arrives after a subdued effort at Wolverhampton last month, but he has flashed ability on all-weather surfaces in the past, particularly when held up for a late rattle.

A drop in the grades and return to a track he knows could coax a revival, though greater fluency in his settling is required.

Mr Fustic has endured a lean spell, with recent outings yielding little in the way of encouragement on the all-weather.

He has occasional sparks of his former ability, but his lack of zip lately tempers enthusiasm despite the lenient terms.

Dios De La Guerra has toiled in recent handicaps, showing only modest speed on all-weather tracks and struggling to quicken off moderate tempos.

His experience counts for something, but a return to form looks necessary from a basement mark.

Invincible Storm has laboured through a barren run, with his latest effort at Chelmsford yielding a distant finish that offered scant promise.

The all-weather holds no terrors on paper, yet his current fitness and enthusiasm appear in question.

Mighty Ruler rounds off the field on the back of a tame showing at Lingfield in September, where he faded tamely having shown early speed.

He has the tools to do better on this surface, but greater conviction is needed to suggest he can land a blow here.

Simulation Results:

Chico Dulce: 24.33% (implied 3/1).

Quite Sweet: 16.89% (implied 9/2).

Warrnambool: 14.67% (implied 11/2).

Jet Packer: 12.45% (implied 13/2).

Rovinia: 10.23% (implied 8/1).

Villalobos: 9.76% (implied 9/1).

Haveagobeau: 6.54% (implied 14/1).

Mr Fustic: 2.11% (implied 46/1).

Dios De La Guerra: 1.89% (implied 51/1).

Celtic John: 1.12% (implied 88/1).

Invincible Storm: 0.56% (implied 177/1).

Mighty Ruler: 0.45% (implied 221/1).

The best bet is Chico Dulce, his course mastery and progressive profile giving him the edge in the projections.

Value selections include Warrnambool at 5/1 live, a clear overlay against his 11/2 fair value, and Jet Packer at 6/1 live, undervalued relative to 13/2 implied odds given his recent promise.

Steamer bets go to Chico Dulce and Quite Sweet, both drifting from early prices (9/4 to 5/2 and 5/2 to 5/2 respectively, but with market signals indicating support building) while leading the win forecasts.

Livy’s Lad headlines the field after a transformative debut over fences here over this exact course and distance just 18 days ago, where he quickened smartly to score with authority despite some early seasoning.

That marked a stark improvement from his prior hurdles efforts elsewhere, revealing a clear penchant for softer ground that matches today’s good to soft going, and his limited exposure to chasing suggests ample room for further enhancement in this grade.

The subsequent rise in the weights looks fair against rivals of this calibre, and his evident zest points to a repeat bid from a forward position.

Take Centre Stage has been knocking on the door consistently, producing a strong-travelling second at Wetherby in his latest engagement, where he closed with real purpose but just lacked the turn of foot to overhaul the winner.

He has a proven affinity for yielding conditions from earlier successes, aligning well with the surface here, and his battle-tested stamina at extended trips, allied to recent sharpness, makes him a serious player if the pace remains honest.

Texard arrives in fine fettle following a solid second at Hexham last time, a performance that reaffirmed his grinding tenacity and current well-being after a sequence of encouraging placed runs.

His best work has come on softer terrain in the past, a key positive for these conditions, and with frequent recent runs under his belt, he boasts the fitness to challenge stoutly if the leaders falter late on.

We Got Your Back shaped with promise when third over fences at Market Rasen back in June, showing improved application after a patchy spell, though he has been off the boil since that effort.

His record on good to soft ground is encouraging, and the alliance with a top jockey could refine his racecraft, potentially elevating him in this moderate company should he return in similar heart.

Flash In The Park has course form to lean on, having filled a placing here previously, but his recent eighth at Uttoxeter was compromised by the heavy going that sapped his momentum.

He has thrived on good to soft in prior outings, which could coax a more fluent display today, and his overall condition from steady racing suggests he may rally if the gallop heats up sufficiently.

Glajou has held his form at a reliable level without quite landing a telling blow of late, with a string of respectable but unremarkable efforts underscoring his dependability rather than outright brilliance.

He has navigated softer surfaces with credit in the past, and while shouldering top weight, his chase experience could allow him to pick off tiring rivals in the closing stages.

Zara’s Universe has found life tough in recent months, her last appearance yielding a subdued sixth at Market Rasen back in April before an extended absence.

She has shown sparks on good to soft before, and the drastic drop in the ratings might precipitate a resurgence, though her jumping efficiency will need to be spot on for any revival.

Chateau Du Lys faces a tough ask judged on his novice hurdle flop at Ffos Las last month, where he trailed in a distant last of 12 amid evident struggles.

The step back to chasing might suit better, but his greenness and lack of fluency lately raise doubts about his preparedness, despite the lenient mark.

Simulation results:

Livy’s Lad: 27.89% (implied 5/2).

Take Centre Stage: 17.41% (implied 9/2).

Texard: 15.67% (implied 11/2).

We Got Your Back: 13.22% (implied 13/2).

Flash In The Park: 10.84% (implied 8/1).

Glajou: 8.76% (implied 10/1).

Zara’s Universe: 3.89% (implied 24/1).

Chateau Du Lys: 2.32% (implied 42/1).

The best bet is Livy’s Lad, his venue mastery and chase upside setting him apart in the projections.

Value selections feature Take Centre Stage at 9/1 live, presenting a clear edge over his 9/2 fair line, and Flash In The Park at 5/1 live, undervalued against 8/1 implied odds in light of his track suitability.

Steamer bets nominate Livy’s Lad and Flash In The Park, both contracting sharply from early prices (11/8 to 5/6 and 6/1 to 5/1) while registering among the highest simulated chances.

Goodwood 13.20

8  ANCIENT ROME 113.7
15  JOLLY JACK TAR 66.3
16  CASTLE COVE 43.5
10  DEFIANCE 32.5

Goodwood 13.55

1  ZAVATERI 86.0
7 HUMIDITY 84.0
3  DO OR DO NOT 70.8
4  DORSET 67.5

Goodwood 14.30

4  KINROSS 91.2
2  AUDIENCE 80.3
11  JONQUIL 49.2
12  NOBLE CHAMPION 42.7

Goodwood 15.05

8  SCANDINAVIA 112.2
3  ILLINOIS 110.8
6  SWEET WILLIAM 89.7
2  FRENCH MASTER 86.8

Goodwood 15.45

3  MISS ATTITUDE 92.0
1  SHAGRAAN 83.8
10  ADRESTIA 71.5
5  REDORANGE 65.8

Goodwood 16.20

9  NAVAL LIGHT 102.2
1  ANASHHAD 61.5
5  HIGH APPROVAL 58.2
13  STELLAR SUNRISE 53.2

Goodwood 16.55

12  MAHRA’S LOVE 75.7
4  PROTEST 70.8
9  DASH OF AZURE 61.2
8  ZGHARTA 58.0

Goodwood 17.30

2  WOODHAY WONDER 79.5
1  DUBAI TREASURE 77.3
6  SHALLOW 62.0
12  EASY PEELER 58.0