'TDN Rising Star' Muth (Good Magic) swatted back a surprise mid-race attack to win authoritatively at Oaklawn. Fellow 'Rising Star' and juvenile champ Fierceness (City of Light) administered a 13 1/2-length shellacking at Gulfstream that resounds as the largest winning margin in Florida Derby history. And at Meydan in Dubai, the undefeated Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) ran his record to 5-for-5, fusing impressive quickness with staunch staying power despite giving up substantial ground on a track slanted in favor of rail runners.

While it's on to Louisville for the latter two, we've known for months that the corporate powers at Churchill Downs have disinvited Bob Baffert's trainees from their 150th Derby bash, so Muth won't be joining Fierceness and Forever Young in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

Thus the reference to the emotional lyrics belted out by his Loafness, the late, larger-than-life 1970s rock balladeer: “Don't be sad–'cause two outta three ain't bad.”

There will be no Derby rematch of Fierceness and Muth, the one-two finishers in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Nor will we witness the fascinating hookup of the three most talented tactical speed horses among a projected field of sophomores that, to this point, has been top-heavy with closers and midpack stalkers.

So be it. The Derby isn't the only jewel in the Triple Crown. Fierceness and Forever Young are ready for prime time right now. Muth will be fresh, fit and dangerous for the GI Preakness S. in Baltimore or the GI Belmont S. at Saratoga. Perhaps both, if we're lucky.

What stood out about Muth's tally in the Arkansas Derby was how economically he doled out his speed when confronted with two disruptive attempts to ratchet up the tempo. Off as the 2.3-1 second choice, Muth broke running under Juan Hernandez, then backed off the action when a 26-1 sacrificial pacemaker slipped up the rail.

Hernandez appeared content to settle into a prime stalking spot. But just before the field cornered onto the back straight, Flavien Prat unexpectedly knifed 11-10 favorite Timberlake  (Into Mischief) between rivals at the 6 1/2-furlong pole.

Hernandez didn't want Timberlake to obtain too big a margin unchallenged, and he quickened Muth for a few strides before sensing he could let Timberlake keep a half-length lead for most of the backstretch run.

Then, starting 3 1/2 furlongs out, Muth gradually ramped up the pressure under his own power. Hernandez cut him loose turning for home.

This was a move Timberlake simply could not match, and the visual of Muth opening up under a hand ride at the head of the lane while Timberlake was being scrubbed on to eventually hold fourth told the story of the race. Muth held off the persistent 32-1 shot Just Steel (Justify) by two lengths under the wire, and it was another 4 1/2 lengths back to everyone else in a scattered field of also-rans.

Fierceness's ransack win in the Florida Derby under jockey John Velazquez was easily the gaudiest performance of the three March 30 stakes. Yet despite the blowout nature of the victory, it was also the most difficult to quantify.

With a win-every-other-race record through five starts, Fierceness's crushing of a soft-on-paper field on Saturday reaffirmed his status as an A-list sophomore when he's on his game. But still, controlling a measured cadence without having to repulse any serious bids did nothing for this Todd Pletcher trainee's reputation for not being able to deliver the goods when up against the grain of adversity.

At age two, Fierceness won his Saratoga debut by 11 1/4 lengths in the slop, then got drilled by 20 1/4 lengths as the odds-on favorite in the sloppy GI Champagne S. Bettors let him go at 16-1 in the Breeders' Cup, and he responded with a 6 1/4-length win that appeared more polished. Yet his unveiling at age three was a flat third at 1-5 odds in the slow-paced GIII Holy Bull S., and he needed an over-the-top effort in the Florida Derby simply from a momentum perspective.

The Kentucky Derby will now be the put-up-or-shut-up race that tells us what Fierceness is truly made of. Whether you plan to bet on him or against him, the story arc has been written appealingly, purely from an entertainment point of view.

If the UAE Derby previously didn't register on your handicapping radar as a pipeline for legit Kentucky Derby contenders, you are forgiven considering the out-of-their league cumulative record of the horses who have attempted that double.

Since 2000, 13 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish among them was sixth (accomplished twice), along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try.

Forever Young might be the colt with the best potential to flip that script. Sent for speed from a wide draw over 1900 meters on Saturday, he was responsive to cues to quicken from jockey Ryusei Sakai. Parked four wide through the first turn, Forever Young eased back and settled into a nice stride while fifth onto the backstretch while remaining wide to avoid kickback.

He stayed in about the four path around the final bend while torqueing into a higher gear, then this Yoshito Yahagi trainee dug in down the home straight with an all-out effort that had him inhaling the pacemaker, drawing away and striding out confidently.

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The news of his injury was first reported by David Grening of the Daily Racing Form.

Aron Wellman, the managing partner of Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, the co-owners of Locked, described the injury as “a very minor ligament fray in the upper part of the left knee.”

Locked was first expected to make his 3-year-old debut in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 10, but missed that race due to a fever. Plan B was to run in last Saturday's GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream but he was scratched by trainer Todd Pletcher, who was concerned with the way the colt trained the morning of that race.

“The morning of the Fountain of Youth, he didn't train like he normally does,” Wellman said. “He had trained exceptionally well in the weeks leading up to the Fountain of Youth. It was just that morning. It's a tribute to Todd's sharpness and his team for picking up on it. Any other trainer, he probably would have run. With Todd's attention to detail we weren't comfortable sending him over for the Fountain of Youth.”

On Monday, the colt was sent to Dr. John Madison in Ocala, who detected the injury.

“We trained him the day after the Fountain of Youth and he was better, but considering his profile and importance we decided not to take any chances,” Wellman said. “We sent him to Ocala and thanks to the state-of-the-art technology that exists now, they found the problem. No surgery will be required. He just needs time to let it reattach and heal, which is unfortunate because we're off the Classic trail. At the same time, we're thankful to Todd and his team for detecting it early enough so that this horse will still have a future. We're thankful to the vets up in Ocala, including Dr. Madison, who ran him through a body of tests. In the grand scheme of things we were fortunate because they are now able to detect injuries like the one he had. That couldn't have been done in the past.”

Thanks to state of the art technology, we've identified a minor ligament injury in Locked's left knee. Sadly, the Derby Dream is over, but thankfully @PletcherRacing caught the issue early and Locked will come back strong. The horse always comes first! #BelieveBig pic.twitter.com/o0ArPyPEd6

— Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners (@EclipseTBP) March 8, 2024

Wellman said the goal now will be to make the major 3-year-old races run in the summer, including the GI Travers S. at Saratoga.

After winning the Breeders' Futurity, Locked ran third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The Fountain of Youth was to be his 3-year-old debut.

“Anybody who is in this game is in it with the dream of having a legitimate contender for the Kentucky Derby and the Classics,” Wellman said. “Locked fit that profile to a tee. We've been fortunate enough to have some legitimate Derby contenders in the past. I was fortunate to be part of the team with Animal Kingdom and Team Valor and we had some other horses who ran respectably in the race. But I don't know that we ever had a horse before who came into their sophomore season with the credentials and the profile that Locked had. We were really confident and had huge convictions that we had the right type of horse to really be effective in the Kentucky Derby at a mile and a quarter. Absolutely, this is a punch in the gut.”

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Additionally, the Weber City Miss S. offers 3-year-old fillies the chance to nab a paid spot in the GII Black-Eyed Susan S. May 17. Laurel's current Heritage Meet continues through March 30.

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Dick Downey of the Blood-Horse was first to report the settlement on Thursday, citing details made public in court filings.

Neither the settlement nor the underlying lawsuit involved any direct claims against 'TDN Rising Star' Justify's then-ownership group (China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners, Starlight Racing, and WinStar Farm) or the colt's trainer, Bob Baffert.

Although, as Downey pointed out in the Blood-Horse, “Presumably they retain the right to appeal the stewards' ruling” and the purse redistribution.

By winning the Santa Anita Derby, the undefeated Justify was able to earn necessary qualifying points to enter the GI Kentucky Derby. He then swept the remaining two Triple Crown races, the GI Preakness S. and GI Belmont S, but was retired from racing six weeks later after developing a left front ankle filling.

It wasn't until 15 months after Justify's Triple Crown romp that a September 2019 bombshell story in the New York Times revealed that Justify had tested positive for scopolamine after he won the Santa Anita Derby, and that the result had been kept hidden from the public.

The Times further reported that CHRB officials arranged to handle Justify's positive “differently than usual” by holding an August 2018 executive session hearing during which CHRB members voted unanimously not to disqualify Justify or to sanction Baffert because the positive test was the result of contamination linked to jimson weed.

The stewards subsequently claimed they had no jurisdiction on the matter as it had already been decided, a decision with which the CHRB later concurred.

Ruis then began what would turn out to be a years-long legal quest to have the result of the race overturned with Bolt d'Oro declared the winner, alleging that the CHRB failed to follow its own rules when it decided not to pursue penalties after Justify's positive test.

Carlo Fisco, one of Ruis's attorneys, told TDN via email Thursday evening that the settlement also will quell a separate civil case pending against the CHRB that sought monetary damages.

“We have settled our monetary claims against the CHRB, which now has the additional duty to recover and redistribute the purse to the rightful owners including our client,” Fisco wrote. “It was never about the money. I'm hoping we can all move on and put the actions in 2018 of a few bad actors behind us. It's all been settled save for the purse redistribution.”

According to the Mar. 5 court document that outlines the settlement, “within five days of [the CHRB] being served with the signed Judgment, the Board of Stewards will enter a new order disqualifying the horse Justify and redistributing the purse pursuant to Rule 1859.5 and ordering that all purse monies earned or awarded be returned to the Paymaster of Purses at Santa Anita within 30 days of their order. If the purse is not redistributed within 30 days, [the] CHRB shall use its best efforts pursuant to its rules [in] ensuring that the [court ruling] is upheld.”

The settlement filing states that the CHRB's obligations “are expected to be fully performed by CHRB using its best efforts as expeditiously as possible.”

The settlement also stipulates that “Nothing contained in this Agreement shall be construed as an admission of liability, any wrongdoing, or any violation of law.”

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Having shown a penchant to want to do too much in the Classic Mile, Helios Express was going to need to relax in the nine-furlong contest if he was to see out the trip. He switched off well enough mid-division and against the rail in the early stages as Beauty Crescent (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}) and Chancheng Glory came across from their wide draws to dispute whatever pace there was. But by about midway, Helios Express was tugging hard and Hugh Bowman had his hands full and his feet in the dashboard, doing everything in his power to try and save something for a finish.

The favourite went better on the turn as Beauty Crescent turned them into the Sha Tin straight, but he was going to have to be ridden for some luck. Held together inside, Helios Express quickly moved onto the leaders' heels, but his stablemate Ensued (Lemon Drop Kid) was there three off the fence and the no exit sign was illuminated for a handful of strides. But owing to the fact that Ensued lacks acceleration, Helios Express pushed away from the inside and now had dead aim on Chancheng Glory, who went to the front 250m from home. The latter, a 51-1 chance, had something left and wasn't going away, but Bowman kept after Helios Express and shoved him across the line. Ensued was a one-paced third ahead of Classic Mile third Star Mac (Aus) (Heroic Valour {Aus}), who got home well from the tail.

“There were a few anxious moments at the 700m when I couldn't hold him but I was given no option but to ride him as I rode him, given the way the race panned out,” said Bowman, a two-time Derby winner, but registering his first in the Classic Cup. “He settled really well but then when the pace started to change, it got really muddling around the corner, he didn't cope with that very well. It's hard to be too critical of him for that reason, either. With a smooth run race (in the Derby), he'll be okay.

“He needs an even tempo, he doesn't particularly need it fast. Like all horses, he's going to benefit from an even pace. It's not only him–it's the entire field.”

Classic Cups for John Size!

Unique Jewellery (2009)
It Has To Be You (2013)
Thunder Fantasy (2015)
Sun Jewellery (2016)
Helios Express (2024)

@A_Evers | #4YOSeries | #HKracing pic.twitter.com/wJ9lM3yTRy

— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) March 3, 2024

Pedigree Notes:

Western Australian-bred Helios Express continues an outstanding run in Hong Kong for his sire, who sits second behind Deep Field (Aus) in progeny earnings for the current season and his two stakes winners ranks as joint-best alongside Starspangledbanner (Aus). His other black-type scorer this term is G1 Centenary Sprint Cup hero Victor the Winner (Aus), who is a probable starter in the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen at Chuyko Racecourse Mar. 24.

A three-time winner at the races, Paris Texas passed away in September 2021 according to the Australian Stud Book, but has left behind Helios Express's unraced 3-year-old full-sister Isolation Ridge (Aus), who is in training with Lindsey Smith at Linton in Victoria.

Sunday, Sha Tin, Hong Kong
HONG KONG CLASSIC CUP-LR, HK$13,000,000, Sha Tin, 3-3, NH/SH4yo, 1800mT, 1:47.73, gd.
1–HELIOS EXPRESS (AUS), 126, g, 4, by Toronado (Ire)
1st Dam: Paris Texas (Aus), by Hinchinbrook (Aus)
2nd Dam: Hialeah Star (Aus), by Luskin Star (Aus)
3rd Dam: Hialeah Gold (Aus), by Sovereign Red (NZ)
O-Andy Yung Ming Tai; B-C Wells (WA); T-John Size; J-Hugh Bowman; HK$7,280,000. Lifetime Record: 9-7-1-1, HK$23,070,200. *Formerly Tex Mex (Aus). Werk Nick Rating: A++. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Chancheng Glory, 126, g, 4, Mor Spirit–Solid Scam, by Consolidator. ($50,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $220,000 RNA 2yo '22 OBSMAR). O-Chancheng Racing Syndicate; B-H Allen Poindexter (IA); T-Francis Lui; J-Keegan de Melo; HK$2,730,000.
3–Ensued, 126, g, 4, Lemon Drop Kid–Alluvial Gold (Ire), by Danehill Dancer (Ire). ($120,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; €260,000 2yo '22 ARQMAY). O-Ada Wong Yin Man; B-T/C Stable LLC (KY); T-John Size; J-Ryan Moore; HK$1,495,000.
Margins: SHD, 2HF, 3/4. Odds: 65-100, 51-1, 69-10.
Also Ran: Star Mac (Aus), Beauty Crescent (Ire), Helene Feeling (Ire), Chill Chibi (NZ), Unbelievable, Speed Dragon (NZ), Fallon (Ire), Elliptical (Aus), Simply Maverick (Aus), Ka Ying Generation (Ire), Awesome Fluke (Aus). Click for the HKJC chart, PPs and sectional timing.

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Also on the ballot are: 2010 champion 3-year-old filly Blind Luck (Pollard's Vision), eight-time Grade I winner Game on Dude (Awesome Again), three-time Eclipse champion Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat), 2011 Horse of the Year Havre de Grace (Saint Liam), 2000 champion sprinter Kona Gold (Java Gold), 2017 champion turf female Lady Eli (Divine Park), and Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy), one of only three fillies to win the GI Belmont S. and champion 3-year-old filly of 2007.

Trainers on the ballot are Christophe Clement, Kiaran McLaughlin, Graham Motion, Doug O'Neill, John Sadler and John Shirreffs.

The 58-year-old Clement trained three-time Eclipse Award winner Gio Ponti, as well as 2014 GI Belmont S. winner Tonalist.

McLaughlin, 63, won three Breeders' Cup races: the 2006 Classic (Invasor), 2007 Filly and Mare Turf (Lahudood), and the 2016 Dirt Mile (Tamarkuz) and trained three Eclipse champions: Invasor, Lahudood and Questing.

Motion, 59, won the GI Kentucky Derby and G1 Dubai World Cup with champion Animal Kingdom, trained two-time Eclipse Award winner Main Sequence, and has won four Breeders' Cup races.

O'Neill, 55, won the Kentucky Derby and GI Preakness S. in 2012 with I'll Have Another and added a second Derby in 2016 with Nyquist. O'Neill has trained five Eclipse Award winners: I'll Have Another, Maryfield, Nyquist, Stevie Wonderboy, and Thor's Echo. He has won five Breeders' Cup races.

Sadler, 67, won the GI Breeders' Cup Classic with Eclipse Award winner Accelerate in 2018 and with Horse of the Year Flightline in 2022. He also trained champion Stellar Wind.

Shirreffs, 78, is perhaps best known as the conditioner of Hall of Famer Zenyatta. He also trained 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo and Breeders' Cup winner Life is Sweet.

Jockeys Jorge Chavez and Joel Rosario are also finalists for this year's Hall of Fame class.

The 62-year-old Chavez earned the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Jockey in 1999. He won the 2001 Kentucky Derby aboard Monarchos and earned a pair of Breeders' Cup victories in his career.

The 39-year-old Rosario, in his first year of eligibility, has won 3,586 races with purse earnings of more than $316 million (fourth all time) in a career that begin in 2003. The Eclipse Award winner for Outstanding Jockey in 2021, Rosario has won 15 Breeders' Cup races (tied for fourth all time), as well as the Kentucky Derby in 2013 (Orb) and the Belmont S. in 2014 (Tonalist) and 2019 (Sir Winston).

To be eligible for the Hall of Fame, trainers must be licensed for 25 years, while jockeys must be licensed for 20 years. Thoroughbreds are required to be retired for five calendar years.

Hall of Fame voters may select as many candidates as they believe are worthy of induction to the Hall of Fame. All candidates that receive 50% plus one vote (majority approval) from the voting panel will be elected to the Hall of Fame. All of the finalists were required to receive support from two-thirds of the 15-member Nominating Committee to qualify for the ballot.

Ballots will be mailed to the Hall of Fame voting panel this week. The results of the voting on the contemporary candidates will be announced Apr. 23. That announcement will also include this year's selections by the Museum's Historic Review and Pillars of the Turf committees.

The Hall of Fame induction ceremony will take place Aug. 2 at the Fasig-Tipton Sales Pavilion in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., at 10:30 a.m. The ceremony is open to the public and free to attend.

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Churchill Downs, Inc., has barred trainer Bob Baffert from competing in the GI Kentucky Derby, and that left us in a quandary over how to assess the nation's best 3-year-old prospects.

It didn't seem right to dismiss the accomplishments of elite-level sophomores, regardless of whether they were eligible for the Derby or not. Nor did it seem proper to ignore the benchmarks their performances provide to help establish the overall pecking order.

So we're including Baffert's trainees in the Sophomore Top 12–along with horses from any other stable–so long as those horses are Triple Crown aspirants.

Once all the major preps have been run in April, we'll still expand the Top 12 to the Top 20 like we do each year.

And in the week leading up to each Triple Crown race, these rankings will again focus on race-specific, horse-by-horse analysis for the Derby, GI Preakness S., and GI Belmont S.

1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $216,600. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Robert F. Lewis S.

The 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos has plenty of sophomore prowess in his pedigree. Sire Nyquist won the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Damsire Bernardini took the 2006 Preakness. Grand-damsire A.P. Indy won the 1992 Belmont, and his sire, Seattle Slew, swept the 1977 Triple Crown. All three female-side of those sires were crowned 3-year-old champions, and the latter two were also voted Horse of the Year at age three.

Nysos won't be Derby-bound because of the ban imposed upon trainer Bob Baffert. But this colt will have other opportunities to tee it up against Grade I competition, with a possible Santa Anita Derby/Preakness combo looming on his calendar.

That schedule is pure speculation, because Baffert generally does not disclose advance stakes engagements for his horses. In the long run it might be futile to try and guess the projected paths of Baffert's top-tier sophomores. But right now in the dead of winter it's an interesting exercise considering the legitimate hype surrounding Nysos.

This nimble but powerful colt has now won at six, seven and eight furlongs by a combined 26 3/4 lengths while earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96, 97 and 105.

Two other items stand out in Nysos's past performance block: 1) How did a colt this talented ever go off at 6-1 odds in his debut? 2) Given his apparent mental maturity, it's a bit of a surprise to see Nysos was a comparatively late May 8 foal.

2) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

'TDN Rising Star' Muth had been expected to start as the favorite in Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn, but trainer Bob Baffert wasn't satisfied with how a Feb. 18 workout at Santa Anita unfolded and declined to enter him.

Muth was clocked in :47.40 (10/128) while covering a half-mile “handily” to the inside of a workmate. But DRF.com's Steve Andersen reported that the move came during a time in morning training when another horse had been pulled up in the stretch with a fatal injury and the warning siren was blaring to alert other riders to pull up and get out of the way.

“He's not going to Arkansas,” Baffert told DRF. “He didn't get a proper work.”

Plan B was not disclosed.

Muth has already shipped cross-country and been scratched on the morning of a race, when Baffert backed the Good Magic colt out of the GI Hopeful S. at Saratoga on Labor Day, citing a “salty” field and a desire to try two turns at a later date.

That secondary option turned out to be the GI American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita Oct. 7, in which Muth manhandled an overmatched field at 2-5 odds.

Muth then ran second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile and started off his 3-year-old season with an assertive, 90-Beyer win in the GII San Vicente S. over seven furlongs.

3) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $336,750. Last start: WON Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

It can be hazardous to your bankroll to fall in love with deep closers in a 20-horse field and the list of Derby also-rans is littered with stout-hearted stayers who came up short because they either ran into traffic or ran out of real estate after circling wide to avoid trouble.

Speed-centric horses racing either on the front end or just off it have won eight of the last 10 Derbies, with Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 the off-the-pace exceptions.

But it's difficult not to take a shine toward 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone after seeing this locomotive-like Gun Runner colt overcome both a slow pace and a sloppy, sealed racetrack when inhaling No. 4-ranked Track Phantom (Quality Road) in the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds.

Equipped with blinkers and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione (both first-time changes), Sierra Leone got bet down to 5-2 favoritism off an 11-week break after running second in the GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct.

He settled mid-pack, then uncorked a prolonged far-turn rally during which Gaffalione sat chilly before setting down his colt in the nine path for the drive.

Sierra Leone had his work cut out for him while still four lengths behind the pacemaker at the eighth pole, but steadily eroded the gap between him and the hard-trying Track Phantom.

The margin got sliced to two lengths inside the sixteenth marker, and even though Sierra Leone lugged in a bit–a habit carried over from his first two races–within a few strides it was evident that Gaffalione had timed his move perfectly, reeling in his target 50 yards from the wire while Sierra Leone extended his powerful finishing pop into the gallop-out.

Next up is the Apr. 6 GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

4) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-2-1, $365,000. Last start: 2nd in Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

Track Phantom's Feb. 17 birthday didn't end with a party in the Fair Grounds winner's circle. But his runner-up effort behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star S. didn't diminish his reputation as a straightforward speed horse who is capable of outrunning rivals for the lead, dictating the tempo, and then refusing to fold in the stretch. He was neither tiring nor quitting. He simply got collared by an A-list closer.

“He ran a great race but ended up just being second best,” said jockey Joel Rosario. “He tries hard every time and keeps getting better.”

This $500,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road now has a foundation of six lifetime races, all at a mile or longer. In each of his last three two-turn starts, he has drawn either the outermost post (in fields of six and seven) or gate 11 of 12 (on Saturday). Yet Track Phantom has ably swatted back inside challengers by clearing them on the first turn.

With wins over the New Orleans track in both the Gun Runner S. and the GIII Lecomte S., plus his second-place finish over nine furlongs in the Risen Star, it's no surprise trainer Steve Asmussen has circled the Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles for Track Phantom's next start.

5) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 4-2-0-1, $1,127,250. Last start: 3rd Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S.

Since the advent of the Eclipse Awards, no 2-year-old champion colt has ever lost his first race back at age three and then won the Kentucky Derby.

After running a punchless third at 1-5 odds in the GIII Holy Bull S., wearing a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May might now seem too tall an order for juvenile champ Fierceness, especially considering trainer Todd Pletcher's plan all along was to have just one other pre-Derby start.

But all is not lost in terms of Derby aspirations for this 'TDN Rising Star.'

For starters, we're now firmly entrenched in the “less is more” era of prepping 3-year-olds to run 10 furlongs and Fierceness could easily cycle back to being a hot commodity with a big nine-furlong effort in the Mar. 30 GI Florida Derby.

Fierceness, based on his five-race career arc, hasn't yet shown an ability to deliver back-to-back strong performances. Nor has he checked the “overcomes adversity” box.

But his two victories in his Saratoga debut and in the Breeders' Cup have both been delivered with enough of a “Wow!” factor to signal that this Repole Stable homebred has what it takes to assert himself at the top of the crop if he ever gets into a groove.

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $257,400. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Dornoch hammered for $325,000 at KEESEP in 2022, a price that now looks like a bargain considering his older brother, Mage, at the time was an unknown colt four months away from winning his career debut and nine months away from soaring home first at 15-1 in the Kentucky Derby.

By way of comparison, four months after Mage's career-defining Derby victory, the next foal out of the mare Puca, a colt by McKinzie, sold for $1.2 million at the 2023 edition of KEESEP.

Trainer Danny Gargan has spent the better part of his winter at Palm Meadows trying to get Dornoch to maintain focus. Gargan doesn't want a repeat of the antics that Dornoch displayed when winning the Remsen S.

In that nine-furlong stakes, Dornoch outgunned five rivals for the lead, took mid-race pace pressure, repulsed fresh challengers on the far bend, then got to “goofing off” in the stretch according to Gargan, brushing the inside rail before re-surging to snatch back the lead from No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone.

Although Dornoch has raced on or near the front in all four of his races, Gargan said after the Remsen that a change in tactics might be a worthwhile experiment. He believes that by coming from a bit farther off the pace, Dornoch will see other horses and remain more mentally locked in on his task.

We'll find out in the GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 2.

7) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $79,200. Last start: WON Feb. 11 Santa Anita AOC.

Maymun's one-mile allowance victory at 3-10 odds at Santa Anita didn't vault him any higher in these rankings. But the effort did maintain his perfect record while posing an open question about what this colt might do when tasked with tougher competition after being unveiled with a flourish in a 'TDN Rising Star' sprint romp back on Jan. 20.

Breaking from the rail in his second lifetime start Feb. 11, this son of Frosted brushed a foe at the break, then sideswiped stablemate and second-favorite Imagination (Into Mischief) when bearing out into the first turn.

Flavien Prat settled Maymun into a slower second-quarter split down the backstretch. The real running started three-eighths out when Imagination engaged Maymun from the outside and the pace ratcheted up into a more spirited cadence while the two Bob Baffert trainees peeled off from the pack.

Imagination (previous Beyers 70, 78, 78) clearly attained the lead on three distinct occasions from the quarter to the sixteenth poles while never quite putting away Maymun for good.

But Maymun clawed back a half-length deficit inside the final 100 yards, winning by a neck through a final eighth in :12.83 while 10 1/2 lengths clear of the three remaining stragglers.

Maymun's winning time of 1:36.65 equated to an 89 Beyer, a four-point haircut off his 93-Beyer debut.

8) CONQUEST WARRIOR (c, City of Light–Tea Time, by Pulpit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,000,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $52,200. Last start: WON Jan. 13 Gulfstream MSW.

Conquest Warrior, dubbed a 'TDN Rising Star' off an adversity-overcoming maiden win going a mile through traffic in his second lifetime race Jan. 13 at Gulfstream, will make his next start there for trainer Shug McGaughey in either an allowance/optional claimer at 1 1/8 miles Feb. 29 or in the Fountain of Youth S. at 1 1/16 miles two days later.

“Ideally, the allowance race goes and we get that next little step into him without quite going into the deep end,” Ernie Retamoza, the manager for owner Courtlandt Farms, told TDN's Steve Sherack last week. “But with the way that he ran and the way he's trained since, I think Shug feels like if the allowance doesn't go, we're sure not gonna sit around and wait on another one. We're gonna go ahead and get him going and see if he can take us there.”

The stout-framed $1-million KEESEP colt has breezed four times since his last start, including two “bullet” clockings at four and five furlongs at Payson Park.

“He's trained really well and came out of that race in great order,” Retamoza said. “He's had some [fast] workouts, really atypical of Shug's horses. Shug doesn't fire bullets all the time, but that colt kind of does. Hopefully, that's a good indicator of what kind of horse he is and where we're headed. Those good horses work fast, that's just the way it is.”

9) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-1-0, $475,600. Last start: 4th Nov. 3 GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.

This son of Into Mischief started his career in three sprints, and while his best races have been at seven furlongs and a one-turn mile, it's noteworthy that his dam's only two wins in Great Britain came over 1 1/2 miles and 1 3/4 miles.

This 'TDN Rising Star' was installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite for Saturday's Rebel S. at Oaklawn, and trainer Brad Cox is hoping the 1 1/16-miles distance will be a launch pad for Timberlake to earn Derby qualifying points in his sophomore debut.

Timberlake's fourth-place try as the 3-1 third choice in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile was essentially over before the first turn when he resisted efforts to settle and never fired when called upon for run.

But go two starts back in his past performances, and that emphatic sloppy-track pasting of a GI Champagne S. field that included eventual champ Fierceness could be the race that is the more useful benchmark for prognosticating Timberlake's future.

Florent Geroux won't be aboard on Saturday for the first time in Timberlake's five-race career. He's booked to ride Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming) for Cox in the $20-million G1 Saudi Cup. Christian Torres will pick up the mount.

10) LOCKED (c, Gun Runner–Luna Rosa, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Walmac Farm; B-Rosa Colasanti (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $425,000 yrl '22 KEESEP). Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-0-2, $608,400. Last start: 3rd Nov. 3 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

'TDN Rising Star' Locked was the beaten favorite when third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and his sophomore season was delayed when he had to miss the Feb. 10 GIII Davis S. at Tampa after spiking a fever.

But bettors haven't forgotten that this $425,000 KEESEP colt put up mid-90s Beyer numbers three times at age two, and his win in the Oct. 7 GI Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland was punctuated by Locked twice re-seizing the lead inside the eighth pole.

As such, he was installed as a 16-1 choice in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool that closed Sunday, the same price as 2-year-old champ and stablemate Fierceness.

Trainer Todd Pletcher plans to start Locked in the Fountain of Youth S., which could end up luring three Top 12 contenders.

11) MYSTIK DAN (c, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) O/B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Southwest S.

Last fall, trainer Kenny McPeek started this Goldencents colt's career by running twice in sprints and three times within a 33-day span. He now believes Mystik Dan's future will be in longer races with more time between starts.

After Mystik Dan's eight-length, 101-Beyer GIII Southwest S. score, McPeek told the TDN Writers' Room podcast that, “This horse is really fast. He has been from the beginning. Initially, I ran him twice in sprint races and after I did that, I kind of regretted it a little bit because we had to retool him a little bit. He's so quick that you had to kind of re-teach him and he needed to learn how to go longer.”

McPeek explained that this homebred for Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby, and 4G Racing made that learning process straightforward because of Mystik Dan's capacity to absorb and repeat what he has been schooled to do.

“This is the kind of mind that you need for these high-level races,” McPeek said.

After running up the score on a sealed, muddy track that he clearly relished, it remains to be seen whether Mystik Dan can repeat his gaudy Southwest performance on a dry surface going longer against a deeper field, with the Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby as his target.

12) SPEAK EASY (c, Constitution–Fun, by Harlan's Holiday) O-Siena Farm LLC & WinStar Farm LLC; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $42,000. Last Start: WON Jan. 27 Gulfstream MSW.

In the last five years, trainer Todd Pletcher has started 185 firsters at odds of 8-1 or higher. Of the 11 who won, according to DRF's Formulator, Speak Easy, who earned a 100 Beyer, is the only one to have run a figure greater than 90. That means this Constitution colt gets serious consideration for this list, even if it is getting a touch too deep into the season to have Derby aspirations for sophomores who've only started once.

This WinStar Farm homebred who races in partnership with Siena Farm broke from the one post in his Jan. 27 Gulfstream debut, sluiced through a four-way early duel to latch on to the 3-2 favorite, then relentlessly ran down that rival in a seven-furlong clocking that was :01.08 seconds faster than older fillies and mares ran in a Grade II stakes later that afternoon.

“We had him going pretty well last summer and was getting close to a race when he had a minor setback, so we gave him some time,” Pletcher said after that win. “The fact that he had a pretty good foundation last summer I think helped in preparing him for his debut. He'd always trained really well, but I think that performance even exceeded our expectations.

“If we get the opportunity to run in an allowance race, that could be an option,” Pletcher continued. “I guess running as fast as he did, if he had to go into a stakes, I suppose you could make an argument for that as well.”

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CASA of Lexington is a non-profit organization that provides advocacy for hundreds of abused and neglected children in central Kentucky every year.

The auction, which concludes with an in-person gala, closes at 9:45 p.m Feb. 23. Buyers do not have to attend the gala and items will be available for pick-up at the CASA of Lexington office, 3245 Loch Ness Drive, beginning 10 a.m. Feb. 26 or may be shipped at buyer's expense.

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3-year-olds can continued to be nominated to the Triple Crown via a $6,000 payment through April 1.

The post Champion 2-Year-Old Fierceness Leads 346 Triple Crown Nominations appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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