1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-5-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 90.

Forte is the kingpin as we edge toward the seven-week mark to the Derby. We would have to see a vibrantly unexpected stakes performance from some other contender(s) between now and Apr. 8–the last of the nine-furlong points preps–in order to trigger a significant shake-up atop the current rankings.

Strong challengers emerging from the pipeline aren't outside the realm of possibility–plenty of Derby winners bloom late. But with so many horses on the Derby trail light on overall experience, any big, unforeseen upsetter in a late-season prep would likely head to Louisville with the public having doubts about their true position in the pecking order. Conversely, even if Forte doesn't shine in his final prep, he will still be given a measure of respect by bettors based on his overall body of work.

This 'TDN Rising Star' has only one loss in six starts, and you have to go all the way back to last July to find it (fourth as the beaten fave in the GIII Sanford S. at Saratoga). Since then he's done nothing but win graded stakes, at seven furlongs (GI Hopeful S.) and three times over 1 1/16 miles, including the GI Breeders' Futurity S., GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and in his 3-year-old return, the GII Fountain of Youth S.

Forte's lanky athleticism, stalking prowess, and far-turn blast-off ability have been on full display in each of his two-turn races, and trainer Todd Pletcher is leaning toward the Apr. 1 GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream as Forte's final tightener.

One quirk, though: All three of Forte's route wins have come on tracks with short-stretch configurations that end at or just beyond the sixteenth pole. Will roughly an extra half a furlong in the home straight make any difference? Probably not based on the way Forte has authoritatively uncoiled through the lane. But a good chunk of the Top 12 contenders ranked beneath him are off-the-pace closers who figure to improve at nine and 10 furlongs, and that sort of multi-attack, firing-line stretch fight is something Forte has yet to encounter.

2) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (Ky); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Practical Move's decisive win in the GII San Felipe S. (100 Beyer Speed Figure) was a huge coming-out party considering the race was his 3-year-old debut and his juvenile form was built around him inheriting a maiden win via DQ and a GII Los Alamitos Futurity score when this colt was a 10-1 outsider against four foes of dubious quality.

Apparently, I misread the tea leaves prior to the San Felipe. But now, looking at Practical Move's overall juvenile season, I can see a developmental arc that is more positive than I initially gave him credit for. (Yes, hindsight is the great friend of all Derby prognosticators.)

For starters, this son of Practical Joke packed in five starts in roughly a four-month span, which, although they did not produce breakthrough results at the time, should provide a stable foundation that will aid him in the long run.

He also ran into a combination of hot horses and bad trip luck–second behind the highly hyped 'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock (Arrogate) in his 24-1 debut; some bumping and rough-housing in starts two and three, and then being outgunned by one-turn specialist and subsequent Grade II stakes winner Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the seven-eighths GIII Bob Hope S. at Del Mar. Yet in none of his adversity-tinged defeats at age two was Practical Move worse than third.

Last week on “At the Races with Steve Byk,” trainer Tim Yakteen described him as a big, “very straightforward” colt who never gets discouraged.

“It's very likely that I'll come back with Practical Move in the [Apr. 8 GI] Santa Anita Derby,” Yakteen said. “He's run well on the track, and that will probably be the best scenario for us. But I didn't want to etch anything in stone and [instead I'll] leave myself the options. Because fortunately, there are a number of options that we can take advantage of. It's just a matter of how many weeks I want [between starts] and where I want him to be. But ideally, I'll run him out of his own stall.”

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs Mar. 11. KY Derby Points: 50.

Did you come away with a “glass half full” or “glass half empty” vibe after watching 2-5 favorite Tapit Trice snatch victory from the jaws of defeat with a last-to-first run in the GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby?

This son of Tapit's habitual slow-to-go style (fourth flat-footed break in as many races) almost cost him dearly. But the pace was fast and the competition was notches below what this 'TDN Rising Star' will encounter in Louisville, enabling him to pass every horse in the field of 12 with a nine-wide rush while encountering little serious resistance.

Yes, Tapit Trice got the job done by overcoming some self-created trip adversity. But the visual of jockey Luis Saez having to hustle and pump on Tapit Trice at multiple points in the race will linger when assessing his chances in the 20-horse Derby, where positioning is crucial. You don't necessarily have to be winging it on the front end, but the Kentucky Derby has been won by speed-centric, forwardly placed types in eight of the last nine years.

Tapit Trice's Tampa Derby grade rates as an “incomplete” in terms of overall progression. But this long-striding colt's first three races were so replete with eye-catching, positive attributes and an unruffled, confident demeanor that it doesn't make sense to dock his chances too severely because he didn't win a March prep with astounding dominance.

And hearing trainer Todd Pletcher say in the aftermath of the win that the colt will likely get a nine-furlong try in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. is certainly more reassuring than hearing that Tapit Trice would spend eight weeks training up to the Derby.

Speed-figure gurus might not be too enthused about the 88 Beyer (four-point regression) Tapit Trice posted, and that's a valid concern. But this colt hit his best stride through a closing sixteenth in :6.14, and that's the fastest final-half-furlong clocking from 16 Derby qualifying points stakes run at 1 1/16 miles in 2022-23.

4) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

In just his second career start and first around two turns, Geaux Rocket Ride was narrowly favored in the betting for the San Felipe S., closing at 2.7-1 odds.

That respect on the tote board said a lot about this speed-oriented son of Candy Ride (Arg). But it also spoke volumes about the public's confidence in trainer Richard Mandella, who is known for his judicious approach with young horses.

Although Geaux Rocket Ride finished second, without question he turned in the best runner-up effort we've witnessed in any 2023 Derby prep. He forced the issue on the front end of a robust tempo yet still managed to finish with purpose behind the much more experienced Practical Move. That combination of early torque matched with still-developing staying power is an attribute you don't see often in second-time-starters.

Jim and Dana Bernhard, who in autumn took over as the new owners of Pin Oak Stud, confirmed in a Twitter post four days after the San Felipe that the Santa Anita Derby will be next for their top sophomore.

Since 1900, 25 horses have attempted to win the Derby off exactly three lifetime starts. Only three have won: Justify in 2018, Big Brown in 2008, and Regret in 1915. Beyond those three, only one of the remaining 22 managed to hit the board (Curlin, third in 2007).

5) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 2nd GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Rocket Can, an Into Mischief gray with six starts, turned the corner on Oct. 30 when first tasked with two-turn races. Yet both his trainer, Bill Mott, and jockey, Junior Alvarado, have acknowledged this colt still has some maturing to do.

Alvarado said Rocket Can got upset for unknown reasons in the post parade of the Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream prior to running a decent second, 4 1/2 lengths behind Forte.

Mott concurred in the post-race interview.

“He broke awfully sharp,” Mott said. “He was a little geared up in the post parade. He was a little more wound up than I actually like to see him. I was hoping he wouldn't get too excited, but he still looked like he ran his race.”

Rocket Can was credited with a 91 Beyer, which, in theory at least, turns down the heat on some of the criticism this colt faced for running back-to-back 82 Beyers and not advancing, numbers-wise, between a second-place try in a Nov. 26 allowance at Churchill and winning the GIII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream Feb. 4.

But speed figures never tell the entire story. Rocket Can gave up real estate on both turns of the Holy Bull while always within striking distance of the leaders, and the stretch runs in all four of his two-turn races have been characteristically strong (two wins, two seconds, never shying from engagement).

6) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Although trainer Steve Asmussen said after Red Route One ran second in the GII Rebel S. that he was toying with the idea of stretching out his son of Gun Runner to 1 3/16 miles in the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby, owner Ron Winchell confirmed to TDN via text message Saturday that the nine-furlong Apr. 2 GI Arkansas Derby is the more likely landing spot.

Red Route One, who just turned three Mar. 12, has twice run second in Oaklawn prep stakes this season, earning his two best lifetime Beyers in the slop (87 then 92). His lone victory came back on Sept. 5 over the Kentucky Downs turf course.

Can a Derby contender who's never won on dirt still be considered a realistic threat in mid-March? In 2023, the answer appears to be yes, because anything unconventional seems to be a “go” these days on the Derby trail, whether it's race spacing getting stretched beyond historic norms or horses with just a couple of starts being regarded as adequately seasoned.

So you can take your pick among horses who've won over dirt but have just had two, three or four lifetime starts. Or you can try your luck (at far higher odds) with a deep closer like Red Route One, who has never tasted victory on dirt but whose fairly sturdy base of races includes seven lifetime starts, all at a mile or longer.

7) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Sagamore Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee, by Bolt d'Oro out of an Uncle Mo mare, will target the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby off a 63-day layoff. According to DRF's Formulator, trainer Brad Cox over the last five years has won at a 23% clip (from 193 starts) with all layoff returnees between 60 and 70 days. His strike rate is also 23% (40 starts) when the filter is set to show the same layoff parameter for only his graded stakes starters.

For 3-year-olds coming back in the 60- to 70-day range at any class level, Cox's win rate is 20% (51 starts). The much narrower filter of 3-year-old 60- to 70-day layoff males in graded stakes dips to 1-for-9 (11%), and that lone winner was in a 2018 Grade III grass stakes at now-defunct Arlington.

This $200,000 KEESEP colt is an overland closer with a 3-for-4 record, and Cox has described this Grade II and III winner as being a light-on-his-feet type whose body language and stride suggest he can get 10 furlongs.

Instant Coffee's Beyers are a touch unpredictable (85-81-82-92 pattern), with that curious dip after his seven-furlong debut win at Saratoga being followed by a 10-point jump in his first sophomore start in New Orleans.

Still, Instant Coffee manages to finish most of his races by posing for a picture in the winner's circle, so he must be doing something right. His only defeat was five months ago against the eventual divisional champ, Forte.

8) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start:  Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux told DRF.com last week that the upsetter of the Rebel S. is in “steady light training” at Fair Grounds while he mulls options for the colt's next start. The Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass S., and even just training straight up to the Derby are all under consideration for Confidence Game. That last option would mean a 10-week gulf between starts.

Desormeaux told DRF that it took Confidence Game “a little longer than usual to recover from that race,” noting that having to ship from cool weather in Hot Springs back to 80-degree days in New Orleans didn't help the post-race recovery process.

Confidence Game, an efficient-striding son of Candy Ride (Arg), sports a seven-race foundation that includes five routes.

The 94 Beyer he earned in the slop at Oaklawn was a 14-point leap off his previous effort, and Confidence Game capitalized by closing from mid-pack into a too-hot pace.

9) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $57,300. Last Start: 1st AOC at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 12. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Considering he's 2-for-2 and was well-regarded at the sales, Kingsbarns is an under-the-radar sort. Part of that perception has to do with his trainer, Todd Pletcher, having three other horses ranked within the current Top 12, including at the Nos. 1 and 4 spots with Forte and Tapit Trice.

This son of Uncle Mo (out of a Tapit mare) will attempt to parlay a Gulfstream MSW mile win and a Tampa allowance score over one mile and 40 yards into a points-garnering performance in the Louisiana Derby, which will likely be his only crack at a Derby qualifying stakes.

He's had the benefit of reeling in overly ambitious pacemakers in both his tries, but Kingsbarns looked very comfortable when covered up at the fence in his debut before slicing through with a capable late kick that belied his relative inexperience.

10) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: 1st in Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

The thinking with Litigate is that the long Fair Grounds stretch in the Louisiana Derby is going to play to his stalking strengths and his Blame (over a Mineshaft mare) pedigree.

This $370,000 KEESEP buy won at first asking sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19, reeling in two horses inside the final furlong over what was arguably not his ideal distance. Additional real estate in the form of a Gulfstream one-turn mile Jan. 8 resulted in a second-place allowance try in which Litigate led between calls five-sixteenths out.

Start number three, the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa, was notable for Litigate being able to clear the field from post 10, responding to rating, then punching home with a far-turn bid during a driving rainstorm.

The Massachusetts-based partnership Centennial Farms has a decades-long track record of not rushing young prospects. The syndicate's teaming with trainer Todd Pletcher is relatively new, starting with Litigate himself.

Litigate does need to improve his Beyers (76-80-77) to be considered a true Derby contender. His company lines also have looked soft over time, with the horses from all three of his races running an aggregate 1-for-18 in next-out races.

11) SLIP MAHONEY (c, Arrogate–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings & Philip Steinberg (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $150,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-0, $126,100. Last Start: 2nd in GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.    Slip Mahoney required three tries to break his maiden, but he's been quietly rounding into form at Aqueduct this winter.

He won the “race within the race” when slow from the gate and second best with a big late burst behind a 7 1/2-length winner in the GIII Gotham S., and he lost two of his MSW starts despite decent efforts behind No. 3-ranked Tapit Trice and No. 10-ranked Litigate.

Trainer Brad Cox said after the Gotham that the GII Wood Memorial Apr. 8 would be next.

This $150,000 KEESEP buy is one of four gray horses currently classified in the Top 12.

Since 2005, 36 consecutive grays/roans have gone to post and lost the Derby since the last gray, Giacomo, roared home at 50-1.

12) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (Ky); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Feb. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 15.

Reincarnate has never been off the board from six starts, all at a mile or longer.

His GIII Sham S. win (95 Beyer) back on Jan. 8 was a good example of his evolving force-the-issue tactics on the front end. A large-framed colt with a long stride, Reincarnate waited on horses, but dug in and fought back once company came calling.

Last time out, in the Feb. 25 Rebel S., this $775,000 KEESEP colt shipped to Oaklawn from his Southern California base and caught a sloppy, sealed  track for the first time. Reincarnate got shuffled back at the break, advanced into contention mid-race, then lost momentum late when checking out of a tight spot. Still, he managed third (90 Beyer).

A return trip to Hot Springs for the Arkansas Derby looms as Reincarnate's likely next start.

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Contributing to the purse increases is $1.5 million from the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund (KTDF), pending approval from the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. Purses for several stakes have doubled for 2022–including the Apr. 15 GI Maker's Mark Mile ($300,000 to $600,000); Apr. 16 GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. ($200,000 to $400,000); and Apr. 23 GIII Ben Ali S. ($150,000 to $300,000).

“Keeneland is thrilled to offer such a lucrative Spring Meet stakes schedule for horsemen, horseplayers and racing fans,” Keeneland President and CEO Shannon Arvin said. “Keeneland is coming off a record-breaking 2021 in terms of wagering, which we are reinvesting in purse money to further elevate our racing program. We look forward to world-class racing this April setting the stage for a huge racing year that will continue with the Fall Meet in October and the return of the Breeders' Cup World Championships on Nov. 4-5.”

Post time for the Spring Meet will be 1:00 p.m. each day. The track will be dark on Easter Sunday, Apr. 17.

“Keeneland in the spring is about 3-year-olds blossoming into talented runners, and we have focused on enhancing those stakes in particular to attract the best sophomores in the country,” Vice President of Racing Gatewood Bell said. “Moving the Central Bank Ashland to opening day makes the start of the Spring Meet extra special and provides a showcase for this historic Grade I event, which is the division's first Grade I race of the year. And the fact that Easter Sunday falls on the second Sunday of the meet–when Keeneland is closed for racing–allows us to present a blockbuster opening weekend with 10 stakes worth a total of $4.55 million.”

Visit www.keeneland.com for more information.

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Updated Kentucky Derby leaderboard

“We hope to run in the Blue Grass,” trainer Bill Morey said Sunday morning at Keeneland. “When we scratched (out of Saturday's Jeff Ruby Steaks-G3 at Turfway Park), we brought him here yesterday afternoon.”

A son of Creative Cause, Hush of a Storm was the 4-1 second choice on the morning line for the Jeff Ruby off a victory in the Feb. 26 John Battaglia Memorial. In that race, he defeated eventual Ruby winner Like the King.

Morey said Hush of a Storm is scheduled to work Monday morning. Santiago Gonzalez, who has been aboard for all three of Hush of a Storm's victories, would have the mount in the Toyota Blue Grass.

According to stakes coordinator Tiffany Bourque, here is the prospective field for the race:

$800,000 TOYOTA BLUE GRASS (G2) – Essential Quality (trainer Brad Cox), Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver), Highly Motivated (Chad Brown), Rombauer (Michael McCarthy), Sittin On Go (Dale Romans). Possible: Hush of a Storm (William Morey), Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro).

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Trainer Tommy Drury said by phone that he shipped Art Collector to Churchill Downs because the track at his Skylight Training Center base in Oldham County is being resurfaced. He said Art Collector will stay at Churchill Downs until shipping to Ellis Park the morning of the race.

“He's fit; we weren't looking for much today,” Drury said. “Just a little maintenance half-mile, let him stretch his legs a little. Brian said he couldn't have been happier, kind of had his ears thrown up. Just cruised along. I think Big John (Churchill clocker John Nichols) had him galloping out in 1:01 and change. It was really nice, just what I wanted. I think he got off the first eighth-mile in 13 (seconds) and just kind of picked it up from there. He's on the same schedule he's been on. He'll come back and work next Friday or Saturday and that should pretty much set us up for the race.”

“Everything was good,” Hernandez said. “Just a maintenance move, nice and smooth.”

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Last Saturday all of that changed when Art Collector earned the trainer his first graded stakes win in the G2 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland. Still, Drury found himself pulling back to watch the post-race celebrations from the rail.

“When the horse came back, they started sponging him off and everybody high-fived and all that,” Drury remembered. “The horse was circling, and I was just lost, I was kinda standing there, off to the side.

“I was just watching, literally I was just taking it in. I was so happy for my assistant Jose Garcia, for (long-time friend and groom) Jerry Dixon; I mean this is the same crew that you're gonna see in the last race at Turfway Park and here we are in the Blue Grass. I just wanted to watch it for a minute. As they started circling the horse, finally (jockey) Brian (Hernandez) kind of hit me in the back and said, 'Hey, you just won the Blue Grass,' and it just hit me, like, 'Yeah, yeah we sure did.'”

With Art Collector established as one of the top three contenders for the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby, Drury can't help but be awestruck at the sudden shift in his career.

“The way we got the horse, the way everything's fallen into place, how do you describe it?” said Drury, who followed his father into racing and has saddled 471 winners since 1991. “It's just, it's unbelievable.”

Neither Drury nor the 3-year-old son of Bernardini would be in this position had the coronavirus pandemic not caused the postponement of this year's Run for the Roses.

Art Collector made his first five starts for trainer Joe Sharp and began his career on the turf, winning a 6 ½-furlong maiden special weight sprint at Kentucky Downs in his second out. The colt made his first attempt at two turns in the G3 Bourbon over 1 1/16 miles on the Keeneland turf, but he leveled off late to finish seventh.

Switched over to the dirt, Art Collector found his stride in his fifth start when he won a six-furlong allowance at Churchill by 7 ½ lengths. Unfortunately, a post-race test found elevated levels of levamisole in Art Collector's system, and the colt was disqualified.

Owner and breeder Bruce Lunsford gave Art Collector a brief break at Kesmarc, then sent him to Drury's barn in January to prepare for a return to the track. He and Drury have a long-standing business relationship, and Lunsford's horses often use Drury's facility as a waystation between races.

“The only thing Bruce said was, 'This is a really, really nice horse,'” said Drury. “The only reason I knew who he was was Brian had sent me a text and asked me if I had Art Collector… At that point I thought, if Brian's trying to figure out where this horse is at, he must be alright.”

Art Collector was intended to move on to the care of trainer Rusty Arnold when he was ready to resume racing, but the virus put everything on hold.

Keeneland canceled its April meet, and Churchill kept delaying the start of the Spring meet, awaiting permission from the Kentucky governor to resume live racing. Meanwhile, Art Collector kept quietly accumulating solid workouts over the Pro-Ride synthetic surface at Skylight.

Hernandez, who is Drury's long-time friend and has been the trainer's go-to rider since his bug-boy days, shipped back to Louisville from his winter home in New Orleans early this year to be nearby after his wife gave birth. The jockey began coming out to Skylight nearly every week to breeze Art Collector, and his reports back to both Drury and Lunsford were extremely optimistic; everyone was just waiting for the chance to get him going.

Finally, Churchill announced that racing would resume in mid-May and released its first condition book.

There was an allowance race that would be perfect for Art Collector on May 17, but Churchill was only allowing trainers to ship in to the backstretch in stages based on where they had spent the winter; Arnold's string from Florida wouldn't be allowed on the track until after the first weekend of racing.

Rather than wait and miss the race, Lunsford allowed Drury to saddle Art Collector for his first start of 2020. The colt won the seven-furlong contest by 2 ¾ lengths, and Lunsford decided Drury had done such a good job that he ought to keep training him.

Arnold also called Drury after that first win, congratulating him.

“It was one of the classiest things anybody's ever done,” Drury said. “Rusty said, 'Tommy, that horse ran fantastic. There's absolutely no reason to change anything, that horse needs to stay exactly where he's at.'”

Lunsford was ready to try Art Collector around two turns again, but Drury wasn't convinced he wanted to go that far. The colt isn't particularly large, Drury explained, and his one previous race around two turns hadn't gone well.

Art Collector is bred for the distance, though. His dam is a two-turn stakes-winning daughter of Distorted Humor named Distorted Legacy, whose half-brother Vision and Verse earned over a million dollars on the track, running second in both the G1 Belmont Stakes and the G1 Travers.

With the colt training exceptionally well, Drury entered him in another allowance race at Churchill, this time over 1 1/16 miles on June 13. Art Collector responded with a dominant 6 ½-length victory, earning a 100 Beyer.

“I was a little nervous before that second race,” Drury admitted. “I was really happy to see him get around the second turn that day, that was pretty exciting.”

The decision was made to enter Art Collector in the Blue Grass. On Wednesday before the race, Shared Sense, whom Art Collector had beaten in the June 13 allowance, came back to win the G3 Indiana Derby.

On the same day, trainer Ken McPeek decided to enter the points-leader for the Kentucky Oaks, Swiss Skydiver, in the Blue Grass. Suddenly, Drury started to wonder if he'd picked the wrong Derby prep to point for.

Lunsford is a staunch supporter of Kentucky racing, though, and Drury knew that if he wanted to even think about the Derby with Art Collector, the colt would have to be tested.

That doesn't mean the trainer wasn't nervous.

“It's funny, I can run a $5,000 claimer at Belterra and get nervous, so that part doesn't change,” Drury said. “The toughest part for me is after you throw the jockey up and you're just waiting. That post parade was the longest six minutes of my life. Actually, Tammy Fox (trainer Dale Romans' partner) yelled at me over the fence, 'You look like you're washing out, are you okay?'”

Standing at the sixteenth pole, Drury watched with his heart in his throat as Mike Smith sat chilly on Swiss Skydiver at the top of the stretch. Art Collector was coming on strong, but from his vantage point it was hard to tell whether the colt would get to the wire in time.

When the pair blew past him, Drury could see Art Collector passing the filly, and the images around him started to blur.

“You know, my program really hasn't been geared toward getting this kind of horse,” Drury explained. “I'm the behind-the-scenes guy. If a guy needs a 2-year-old legged up, he calls me. If a guy runs out of stalls at Churchill and he has three horses coming, he calls me. I'm happy to do it, and I've made a good living doing it, but because I do it, you don't even think about stuff like this.

“You kind of feel like it's never going to happen, you almost know its never going to happen. And now, all of a sudden this thing… I don't know how to describe it. I still can't find the words. People keep asking me what I think and how I'm feeling, and I just don't know.”

Drury sent excited texts to his son and his daughter after the race, but otherwise settled in for a quiet evening at home with a pizza and a cold beer. By the next morning, he had over 312 text messages on his phone, and voice mails from other trainers and friends from all over the country.

“I laughed and told Bill Mott, 'I always wondered what it was like for you guys after you win a big race!'” Drury joked. “I called Rusty and I told him, 'Thank you so much for what you did, because this thing has changed my life.' You know Rusty, he just said, 'Tommy, that was the best thing for that horse.'”

Whether Art Collector makes another start before the Derby has not yet been decided, with Drury deferring the decision but suggesting the Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9 as the most likely option.

Looking forward to the first Saturday in September, one day before his 49^th birthday, Drury has a hard time imagining what it might look like with the virus protocols Churchill will employ. He hopes to be able to bring his children with him on the walkover, but no matter what happens he's grateful to be along for the ride with his horse of a lifetime.

“You know, the best part of all this is that I'm sharing it with my crew and my friends,” Drury said. “It means so much to be here with Jose, and Jerry, and Brian, and with Bruce as well.”

“The most special thing about it is to be on this trail with Tommy,” Hernandez echoed, speaking to the Ellis Park press office. “I've ridden at every little racetrack in the country, I think, for Tommy. Indiana, River Downs, Beulah, Ellis and now to win the Blue Grass for him is a special moment. Being friends like we are, it's more special to have this good of a horse. We've always talked about 'Man, if we could ever get a really good one like this, the trip it would put us on.' It's meant a lot.”

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Keeneland’s first-ever summer meet was created after the track’s traditional 16-day spring meet was cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic. It was conducted without fans and with a limited number of owners in attendance.

“Horsemen and fans alike highly anticipated the Summer Meet, and their expectations were exceeded by the breathtaking level of racing we enjoyed here this week,” Keeneland President and CEO Bill Thomason said. “I can’t express how much we missed our fans at Keeneland, and we thank them for their strong support from afar. This pandemic created a number of operational and logistical challenges for us to make this season a reality. I am so proud of the collaboration between state and local health officials, our horsemen, our corporate partners and our Keeneland team, all of whom worked tirelessly to create a safe environment on track and deliver such incredible racing.”

The post Keeneland Generates $63M in Handle appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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“I am going to get with Bruce in the next couple of days and figure out what we will do,” Drury said. “Art Collector will stay at Skylight for a little while because it is quieter there and then like we have done before, two weeks or so before he runs we will bring him back to Churchill.”

With the Blue Grass victory, Art Collector picked up 100 qualifying points toward the Sept. 5 GI Kentucky Derby, good for fourth place on the Derby leader board with only six points races remaining.

“If we do anything [before the Derby], it likely would be Ellis [the Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9],” Drury said.

Art Collector gave Drury his first graded stakes victory with his authoritative score at Keeneland Saturday, but the trainer didn’t have much time to celebrate.

“It was a pretty special day,” Drury said Sunday morning. “You know how we horse trainers are. I had to get him back to Skylight last night and I had to be at Churchill Downs at 5:30 [this morning] for the first set. I wound up having a frozen pizza and a cold beer.”

Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Madaket Stables’ Speech (Mr Speaker), along with stablemate and Blue Grass third-place finisher Rushie (Liam’s Map), is scheduled to ship back to California Monday following her victory in Saturday’s GI Central Bank Ashland S.

“Justin Curran was deputizing on my behalf and was very pleased with them this morning,” trainer Mike McCarthy said of the duo via text Sunday. “Most likely both will have a few works here at Del Mar before deciding on a Churchill Downs arrival date.”

Rushie is not Triple Crown nominated, and plans are uncertain for the colt, who has picked up 40 Kentucky Derby qualifying points for the Run for the Roses.

“Nothing is set in stone for Rushie,” McCarthy said. “There are plenty of options.”

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The Grade 2 Blue Grass, with a $600,000 purse, is run at its traditional 1 1/8 miles and will offer 100-40-20-10 qualifying points for the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby. It's drawn a field of 13, including a well-traveled filly, multiple graded stakes winner Swiss Skydiver from the barn of Kenny McPeek. She's run at five different tracks in her five starts this year, winning her last three.

In this edition of the Triple Crown News Minute, Ray Paulick and news editor Chelsea Hackbarth take a look at the leading contenders in the Blue Grass,including the up-and-coming Art Collector, a 3-year-old by Bernardini making his return to graded stakes following a pair of impressive allowance victories at Churchill Downs.

They also analyze the field for the G1 Ashland Stakes, a qualifying points race for the Sept. 4 Kentucky Oaks. Despite only drawing a field of six, the Ashland Stakes has a solid field of contenders ready to take on the 6-5 morning line favorite, Venetian Harbor.

Watch the latest Triple Crown News Minute below:

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Nominated to the Triple Crown, Swiss Skydiver, a daughter of Daredevil, also is nominated to Keeneland's Central Bank Ashland (G1) to be run the same day. She is trained by Kenny McPeek, who also conditions another Central Bank Ashland nominee, Envoutante, a daughter of Uncle Mo owned by Walking L Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm. Envoutante won an allowance race at Churchill Downs in her most recent race on May 29.

Entries for the Toyota Blue Grass and Central Bank Ashland both will be taken Wednesday.

“I'm not going to decide (the next race for Swiss Skydiver) until the morning of entries,” McPeek said late Saturday morning after Envoutante and Swiss Skydiver each worked at Churchill Downs.

“There's several factors (in making the decision),” he added. “I need to make sure the other filly (Envoutante) is good to go in the Ashland. Like I said, I'm inclined to keep them apart. We'll see. I want to check field size, things like that.”

No filly has won the Toyota Blue Grass, and only one filly has run in the race since it debuted at Keeneland during the track's inaugural Spring Meet in April 1937. She is Hyman Friedberg's homebred Harriet Sue, who in 1944 won the Ashland and next was fifth to Skytracer in the Blue Grass. That year, Keeneland's Spring Meet was held at Churchill Downs.

In 1948, future Hall of Famer Bewitch was scratched from the Blue Grass.

Saturday's 83rd running of Central Bank Ashland figures to attract a small but select field regardless of where Swiss Skydiver runs.

Three Grade 2 winners are expected to be entered Wednesday: Juddmonte Farms' Bonny South, winner of the Fair Grounds Oaks; Slam Dunk Racing, Doug Branham and Legacy Ranch's Tonalist's Shape, winner of the Davona Dale, and Ciaglia Racing, Highland Yard, River Oak Farm and Dominic Savides' Venetian Harbor, winner of the Las Virgenes.

Saturday's Blue Grass, which marks the 25^th running of the race sponsored by Toyota, could draw a field of 12, including Swiss Skydiver. Other notables expected to pass the entry box include Jackpot Farm's Basin, winner of last summer's Runhappy Hopeful (G1) and most recently runner-up in a division of the Arkansas Derby (G1); John Oxley's Enforceable, winner of the Lecomte (G3) and multiple graded stakes-placed, and Bruce Lunsford's sharp Churchill allowance winner Art Collector.

The post Kentucky Oaks Points Leader Swiss Skydiver A Definite Maybe For Blue Grass appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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