That makes this a surprisingly congested zone, ample for separate assessment. And since clinging to a five-figure fee somewhat represents a show of faith, some of these sires tend to have a fair case in their favor. At a time when fees are widely perceived to be challenging, this is a nook that harbors some decent value.

It is broadly populated by three types. First are the veterans who have achieved an honorable viability over the years (and we know how difficult that is) but are now suffering the commercial prejudice in favor of fresher blood. On the other hand, we have a bunch of younger guns, typically riding out the bumps between the vogue of novelty and distrust of racetrack exposure. And then there are a few in between, horses in their prime who have settled into a workable niche that keeps them competitive with the next tier up.

The senior group is headed by a remarkable pair, both about to enter their 20th year at stud, with a body of work behind them that will forever embarrass the vast majority of this lot. And there's plenty of life left in MINESHAFT, judging from seven stakes scorers this year (one for each of his lifetime Grade I winners) at a ratio that Uncle Mo, Medaglia d'Oro and Tapit have barely matched. A 1-2 in the GII Cigar Mile showcased his continued prowess, both Hoist the Gold and Senor Buscador already owning wins at that level earlier in the year. The former is now in the millionaires' club, and will soon be joined there by the latter assuming he perseveres in 2024.

SKY MESA is still more neglected, yet similarly remains in the top 15 active sires by lifetime earnings, with ratios of black-type and graded stakes action that measure up respectably against all but the elite names. Remember that these old boys can draw some venerable influences close: Sky Mesa's first three dams are by Storm Cat, Affirmed and Round Table, yet the continued vigor of his family has been lately evinced by his half-sister's son Maxfield (Street Sense). Mineshaft's first three dams, meanwhile, are by Mr. Prospector, Hoist the Flag and Herbager (Fr)! Both Mineshaft and Sky Mesa have superb families and to be able to access their blood, relatively undiluted by the huge books nowadays flooding the gene pool, is a diminishing opportunity too obvious to any enlightened breeder to require the formal gilding of a place on the Value Podium.

Really I should have them both up there, but they covered 40 mares between them last year and that tide is hardly going to turn at this stage. Happily, we know them to be in good hands and they will remain long cherished once their service is finally over.

Ditto another veteran, MIDNIGHT LUTE, who had a few more mares than that pair last spring but again hardly the numbers commensurate with his five elite winners–including not just Midnight Bisou but more recently Smooth Like Strait, himself now launching a stud career at a bargain fee–and the solid ratios that also keep him inside the top 20 active sires.

At the other end of the spectrum, meanwhile, most of the younger sires are awaiting the emergence of their first runners. (By the way, don't forget that we gave the absolute beginners a separate assessment, at the outset of this series, highlighting the claims of one standing at this fee in COUNTRY GRAMMER.)

One of the younger guns that has already tested the water on the racetrack, however, has done so with quite promising results. For while COLLECTED found himself in a very competitive intake, his first sophomores this year included winners of the GII Del Mar Derby, GII Pennine Ridge S. and GII Black-Eyed Susan S.

Drain the Clock | Sara Gordon

Among several only just embarked on their new careers, INDEPENDENCE HALL and especially DRAIN THE CLOCK have some big numbers behind them–unsurprisingly, in view of the 101 Beyer clocked by the former in his record-margin romp in the GIII Nashua S., or the similar precocity displayed by the latter as prelude to his GI Woody Stephens success. TACITUS, HAPPY SAVER and IDOL were contrasting brands, on the margin of the elite around a second turn but amply demonstrating the functionality of their aristocratic genes. Happy Saver, in fact, has none other than Weekend Surprise replicated top and bottom: she's his third dam, while her son A.P. Indy is the damsire of Super Saver.

The latter has another son trading in this bracket in RUNHAPPY, whose fee slips despite producing a GI Hopeful winner in the $12,000 yearling Nutella Fella. We saw another glimpse of the real Smile Happy in the GII Alysheba S., meanwhile, and the stakes are now pretty minimal for those keeping the faith with Runhappy.

A couple of nuggets at this level are the Lane's End pair, THE FACTOR and TONALIST. The former had a quiet year by his very consistent standards, and needed to come down in line with his yearling yield, but there's no knocking a stellar lifetime ratio of two winners to three named foals. As for Tonalist, a single horse has blatantly distorted his earning power but what Country Grammer has represented much more fairly is all the toughness one would hope to inherit from Tapit over Pleasant Colony. It's heartening to see that this was recognized by as many as 115 mare owners last spring, twice as many as Tonalist entertained in 2021.

Another farm that demands a visit for those working to this kind of budget is Spendthrift. Admittedly its $10k trio have all long shed the novelty value prized by its more commercial clients, as was clear when their latest yearlings entered the ring. Continued demand in the breeding shed, however, suggests that people can glimpse a different type of value here.

Sure enough, on the track JIMMY CREED produced another three graded stakes winners including the evergreen Casa Creed, whose Fourstardave H. win was his fourth at the top level. Jimmy Creed is carving out a very viable place at this level, with his book back up into three figures last spring, and only narrowly misses joining one of his neighbors on the podium.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze: HONOR A.P.
Honor Code–Hollywood Story (Wild Rush)
Lane's End $10,000

Honor A.P. | Sarah Andrew

This is our clear pick among the many young stallions whose farms are hoping that this kind of fee will prove only a foundation, once some actual runners can attest to their genetic prowess.

That, of course, is the reverse of the usual scenario. As a rule, the commercial market backs away faster and faster, the closer a stallion gets to the unsparing exposure of the racetrack. Everyone knows that most young sires will fail, and tries to ride their fleeting commercial momentum. If you truly believe in a horse, however, this is the time to double down.

Only where could you hope to find a combination of top-class pedigree, physique and performance for just 10 grand? Well, right here at Lane's End–that's where.

Honor A.P. beat the subsequent Horse of the Year at Santa Anita, and did so fair and square. He would surely have gone close to doing so again, but for his nightmare trip in the September “Derby”. The matter was left unresolved by his further misfortune, but nobody could deny that he had ticked the performance box in the little opportunity he had.

Physique? How does $850,000 Saratoga yearling sound?

And as for the genetic package, he's out of a Grade I winner (at both two and five) by a sire from one of the great modern families. True, Honor Code himself has proved a rather disappointing sire, to the extent that he recently became another far-sighted “rescue” by a Japanese industry prepared to play a longer game. Honor Code promptly came up with Honor Marie's GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. as something to remember him by, but his departure is probably good news for his son. It must have been difficult to launch Honor A.P. alongside his own sire, when the latter had failed to pull away into a higher tier of the market.

Honor A.P. now gets a clear run even as he prepares to launch his first runners. He made a perfectly solid sales debut, his 48 yearlings processed at $55,145 highlighted by a $375,000 colt. Just because Honor Code did not prove consistently potent, that doesn't alter the fact that Honor A.P. converted a stellar genetic legacy into something luminously functional on the track. Unsurprisingly he struggled for numbers in his third book, but we've been given every incentive to hang in there with a fee cut from $15,000. With luck, his quality will start to now take his mares past those floundering against the dull tides of quantity.

Silver: FROSTED
Tapit–Fast Cookie (Deputy Minister)
Darley $10,000

Frosted | Darley

Could it be that Frosted has finally reached a point where he becomes a value proposition?

There's no denying that he has been a letdown to this point. The fastest GI Met Mile winner in history retired with his 123 Beyer as the most expensive option of the 2017 intake, at $50,000, and averaged around $225,000 with his first yearlings. And here he is, after 344 starters, still waiting for that breakout Grade I winner.

In the meantime, his fee has slumped consecutively until settling at $10,000 last year. But if we reset our bearings accordingly, we'd have to concede that he has had a quietly productive campaign, his 18 black-type performers including three graded stakes winners (plus one in Australia). True, he's still benefiting from some of the classy mares he received early on: Keeneland Grade III winner Frost Point, for instance, is out of a Grade I-winning millionaire. So we'll have to see whether he can maintain this kind of output with rather lesser raw materials, but it's very striking that last spring Frosted moved his book up from 108 to 154.

Evidently the kind of commercial breeders who could not initially afford him have by no means given up on the gray, and it may be that a different kind of cocktail will shake some fresh flavors–as a sprint influence, for instance, and even as a turf one, as in the case of globetrotting Jasper Krone–out of a horse that once seemed to have the world at his feet. After all, he traded 66 of his latest crop of yearlings at $65,475, which would do very nicely indeed off this kind of fee; while one sold for $50,000 in the previous crop soared to $900,000 at OBS in April.

Frosted is still only on his fourth crop and that leaves ample scope for a market thaw.

Gold: CROSS TRAFFIC
Unbridled's Song–Stop Traffic (Cure The Blues)
Spendthrift $10,000

Cross Traffic | Spendthrift

This horse has endured some dazing fluctuations since being crowned champion freshman by multiple indices in 2018. His reward in 2019 was the attention of 188 mares at $25,000, up from just 60 at $7,500 the previous year. The resulting crop were juveniles of 2022, when 33 individual winners from 79 starters put him second in the all-comers' 2-year-old table, with no fewer than 13 of them earning black-type. And how did they follow through this year? Well, 63 of his 105 sophomore starters won, notably GI Ashland S. winner Defining Purpose. And another 3-year-old filly was on track for a stunning Grade I debut when taking her unbeaten spree of five (Saratoga maiden and stakes at two, another stakes and two graded stakes at three) into the Test S. Her name, you will scarcely need reminding, was Maple Leaf Mel.

From his older stock, Cross Traffic also produced homebred Here Mi Song to win the GIII Commonwealth S for a three-horse program that also includes her dam, an apt measure of the type of service he can perform for the smaller breeder.

Ludicrously, however, his 2020 book plunged by two-thirds and he ended up with only 28 live foals, of which a bare dozen started this year, leaving him submerged in the general sires' table despite 14 black-type performers. He must continue to ride out this slump after another couple of quiet years, but his book last spring responded to his 2022 deeds with a rally to 84.

The hope now must be that Cross Traffic can consolidate the second chance he has earned from those fickle breeders. It will assist his cause that the familiar precocity of his stock tends to be fortified with maturity, after the fashion of near-millionaire Ny Traffic who soaked up four campaigns. Cross Traffic himself, remember, raced only as a 4-year-old, when making up for lost time with a GI Met Mile second and GI Whitney success on just his fourth and fifth starts.

His family has some fairly exotic seeding, albeit no more so than the big horse on this farm. And it is full of runners, not least his dual Grade I-winning dam. She has additionally given Unbridled's Song the mother of Gulfport (Uncle Mo), who won the Bashford Manor by a dozen lengths last year before his promotion to replace Forte (Violence) in the GI Hopeful S. There's some real genetic vigor here, then, and Cross Traffic has now shown twice over-with his juveniles of 2018 and 2022-the kind of crop he can produce if only he's given the chance. And, at this kind of money, a proper, sustained chance is just what he deserves.

Sires At $10,000: Breeders Selections

Fabricio Buffolo | Keeneland

Fabricio Buffolo, Buffalo Bloodstock
Gold Medal: Happy Saver
I think he is a nice example of what a true American dirt horse looks like, especially with such an impressive and powerful shoulder. I think it's hard to not think about his name and not associate it with such a solid and sturdy front end. He was a very good racehorse who showed grit and resilience throughout his races against all the best in the country. He is an interesting young stallion.

Silver Medal: Midnight Lute
When considering the group of stallions with runners standing at $10,000, I think that he stands out with a solid percentage of black-type horses and black-type winners to runners, including five Grade I winners which is not usual at this price bracket.
He's quite versatile with his progeny having good performers on different surfaces and distances, and the key lies in finding a mare that can suit him physically.

Bronze Medal: Jimmy Creed
He is another horse that has done fairly well at this stud fee bracket getting a good percentage of black-type horses compared to others, including some with higher price tags. It's evident that the market can be quite tough on horses like him that have had a decent number of crops, but he has received continued support in the last few years attesting to the confidence that breeders have found in him.

The Factor | Lee Thomas

Elgin Hamner, Prime Bloodstock
Gold Medal: The Factor
If The Factor had not left for a couple of years, I believe he would be a constant top 25 sire. He's great value to have a shot at a good runner.

Silver Medal: Frosted
I was really high on him coming out, he's a strong horse with a strong race record. Love the Tapit over Deputy Minister. Now, he has established himself as a racehorse producer.
He's always top two or three of his crop and gets a bigger, stronger horse than The Factor. They seem to run anywhere and are selling ok. He just needed a couple of big horses earlier.

Bronze Medal: Goldencents
It's hard to make it as a sire, but they run early and often. They don't sell as well as they should (can lack size), but each one born could be a runner.

Honorable Mention: Honor A.P.
No runners yet, but the physical when he stamps them is pretty strong. We have to keep that A.P. blood going, it's the best two turn blood of the last 20 years, and he is one of the last of that line with a shot.

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With stud fees set at $12,500 for Two Phil's and $10,000 for Country Grammer, Walden said he believes the future is bright for this pair and the breeders who are finding value in WinStar's newcomers.

“We've been very excited with how they've been received,” said Walden. “Both horses bring something a little bit different to the table. Country Grammer is a Seattle Slew-line horse through Tonalist and Tapit and he comes from a great Juddmonte family, so he brings stamina to mares that have a little kick to them and he's going to give a great physique. Two Phil's is a horse that people are really responding to. They know how good of a racehorse he was and for $12,500, when the other 3-year-olds in the crop are probably going to be standing for three times that, he provides great value.”

Trained by Chicago native Larry Rivelli, Two Phil's was the feel-good story of the Windy City as he claimed four stakes wins and earned over $1.5 million for fellow Chicagoans Philip Sagan and Patricia's Hope LLC, with Madaket Stables also joining the ownership group this year.

The son of Hard Spun came on WinStar's radar after his dominating score in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, where his 5 ½ Ragozin figure ranked him at the top of the list of Kentucky Derby contenders. The colt's second-place performance on the first Saturday in May confirmed WinStar's belief in his ability.

“He was up close to a very fast pace,” Walden recalled. “To turn for home and take the lead, obviously he had to be exhausted because it was a very fast pace, but he just tried to hang on and fought Mage (Good Magic) all the way to the wire. Then when you look at the gallop out, he actually comes back and gallops out in front.”

In Two Phil's final career start in the GIII Ohio Derby, he recorded a near six-length win over Bishops Bay (Uncle Mo), a colt co-owned by WinStar that had finished second by a head to MGISW Arcangelo (Arrogate) in his prior start in the GIII Peter Pan S.

“That just shows the kind of quality that Two Phil's had as a racehorse,” said Walden. “He had form on multiple surfaces and on multiple racetracks. He also won a graded stake in the slop as a 2-year-old. He was just a racehorse.”

While Two Phil's racing career is reminiscent of his sire's–as Hard Spun also recorded two stakes wins as a juvenile and won the same Derby prep at three–it is the sire line in and of itself that Walden said made Two Phil's a good fit for their stallion program.

“We've been looking for a Danzig horse for a long time,” he explained. “Danzig is a horse that keeps giving in this industry. When you see Danzig in a pedigree–Uncle Mo, War Front, now Omaha Beach is coming on–you need to take notice. Hard Spun is a very underrated stallion and the thing that Two Phil's brings is that he's a very good-looking son of Hard Spun. He's well-balanced, has a great head and good topline and he's well-sprung on his hocks. I think he'll compliment mares just because of his size and his balance.”

Country Grammer ahead of his victory in the 2022 G1 Dubai World Cup | Dubai Racing Club

Country Grammer is another horse that Walden said has caught the eye of breeders visiting the stallions at WinStar.

“We did a showcase last summer of Life is Good, Nashville and Country Grammer and there were as many people that were as taken back with Country Grammer as they were Life Is Good and Nashville,” he recalled. “We know how popular Life Is Good and Nashville have been, so we're really excited about Country Grammer for 2024. He's a big, scopey horse that has a long, sloping shoulder. He's the kind of horse that you would expect to run two turns and I think he'll compliment mares because he'll help mares get the kind of physical that breeders would want at the sales.”

A $450,000 2-year-old at the OBS Spring Sale, Country Grammer started out in the Chad Brown barn and was originally campaigned by Paul Pompa. After breaking his maiden at two, the colt went on to claim the GIII Peter Pan S. the following year. He caught the eye of the WinStar team while spending time at the farm on a layoff. Following the passing of Paul Pompa, WinStar acquired the colt at the 2021 Keeneland January Sale.

From there, the son of Tonalist was sent to Bob Baffert and collected victories in the 2021 GI Hollywood Gold Cup S., the 2022 G1 Dubai World Cup over a field that included Life is Good, Midnight Bourbon and Hot Rod Charlie, and the 2022 GII San Antonio S. He also placed in four additional Grade I contests over his five-year career, including a runner-up effort in this year's G1 Saudi Cup.

“He ran at a high level on the East Coast, West Coast and the Middle East for a long time,” said Walden. “In this day and age when soundness and race record is important, I think he's a high-quality horse. He comes from a great Juddmonte family–the family of Obligatory (Curlin) and Bonny South (Munnings) that has been giving good runners for a long time. It's really exciting to have a horse like him at the price that we have him at for 2024.”

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Campaigned by Commonwealth, WinStar Farm, and Zedan Racing, the Bob Baffert-trained colt started three times this year, finishing second for the second year in a row in the G1 Saudi Cup but failing to hit the board in both his Dubai World Cup defense and the GII Hollywood Gold Cup S. May 29.

Bought for just $110,000 by WinStar at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, Country Grammar retires with a record of 17-5-6-1 and career earnings of $14,801,320.

“Being a Grade I winner on the biggest stage in Dubai, beating 24 individual Grade I winners in his career, and being the third-highest earner of all time, Country Grammer makes for a special stallion prospect,” said Elliott Walden, president, CEO, and racing manager of WinStar Farm. “He is a real throwback to the great horses of our time, and he retired sound.”

For more information on Country Grammer, contact Liam O'Rourke, Olivia Desch, or Ben Hanley at (859) 873-1717, or visit WinStarFarm.com.

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“He's a nice, beautiful-moving horse and he did it easy. He's a good work horse. In the morning, you can work him :59 if you wanted,” Castellano said. “We all know that [the Belmont is] a mile and a half and you don't want to go crazy with a bullet work. We just give him a good foundation and I think we both agree we let him do what he wants to do in the morning and be happy. You can see he's a very happy horse and he goes to the post nice–very relaxed, comfortable rhythm. I let him gallop out and in the turn I asked him a little bit and he took off and had a good open gallop. He's a big horse, long beautiful stride. He likes to reach for more ground. The farther he can go, the more he's comfortable.”

Trained by Jena Antonucci, Arcangelo broke his maiden going one mile at Gulfstream in March and was making his stakes debut when getting his head in front on the line in the nine-furlong Peter Pan. The Belmont will be the ridgling's first start around two turns.

“It's not a secret he hasn't gone two turns yet and that's the obvious conversation and we talked a lot about that,” Antonucci said. “The second half of the work was more important for me than the first half. Going off, he was super relaxed and that's what we were looking for–I didn't want him dragging Javier to the pole and him having to take any natural ability momentum away from him. He did that perfectly and Javier was a statue aboard the horse. We wanted to get that second turn around him and Javier was concerned to smooch at him too much.”

Antonucci will be starting her first horse in a Triple Crown race as Arcangelo looks to become the first Peter Pan winner since Tonalist won the Belmont in 2014.

“They're all special, and not the be cliche, but my job is to stay out of his way,” Antonucci said. “It [the opportunity] doesn't fall on deaf ears. It's special–if it's 10 in the gate or 11 in the gate of that entire foal crop, that's a very small percentage. So, I definitely don't lose sight of that and I'm very blessed to have the opportunity and for the team to have the opportunity. They've put in a lot of work and they deserve it.”

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“Super breeze, big gallop out,” trainer Todd Pletcher said following the work. “He seems to really like the main track here. I'm very, very happy with the way he's been training. He hasn't missed a beat since the Derby. He's settled in well. He's been galloping over the main track. He had a breeze last week [half-mile in :49.04 May 19] and a more serious breeze today. It was a major piece of work today, we'll come back for a maintenance- type breeze next week. We always thought the mile and a half would suit him.”

A win would make Tapit Trice the fifth son of Tapit to take the Belmont, adding to the previous successes of Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Tapwrit (2017) and Essential Quality (2021). Pletcher likes the colt's chances of seeing out the 12 furlongs.

“He's out of a Dunkirk (Unbridled's Song) mare who I trained and ran second [to Summer Bird] in the [2009] Belmont. From a pedigree standpoint, you would think he's capable,” Pletcher said. “He's got that big, long galloping stride. I think the main thing is making sure that he gets into that comfortable rhythm and doesn't give himself too much to do early on. The Belmont is not necessarily a closer's race, but it seems like he's really coming up to it the right way.”

Would-be Derby favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Forte (Violence) and Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo) were scheduled to breeze Friday, but the former will now work Saturday morning at 8:45. Pletcher was unsure when Kingsbarns would return to the tab.

“He's got a little bit of a bellyache today, so we weren't able to breeze him,” Pletcher said of Kingsbarns.

At Gulfstream Park Friday morning, trainer Antonio Sano sent out Il Miracolo (Gun Runner) for a five-furlong move over a sloppy main track that was clocked in 1:01.06.

“He had a very good work. He leaves for Belmont next Saturday,” Sano said. “It's a very strong race and the horse is a little green right now, but I hope he can run well and run a strong race.”

Sixth and well-beaten behind Forte in the GII Fountain of Youth S. and again in the GI Curlin Florida Derby, Il Miracolo was the wire-to-wire winner of a one-mile allowance/optional claimer at Gulfstream May 11.

G1 Blue Grass winner TAPIT TRICE (outside) breezing for the G1 Belmont Stakes pic.twitter.com/C0JGigYH4n

— Ryan Martin (@RyanMartinNYRA) May 26, 2023

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A little past the midway point of the sixth day of bidding in Lexington, hip 1683–a colt from the first crop of Tonalist and offered by Dermot and Emma Quinn's Garrencasey Sales–walked into the back ring and immediately caught Hubbard's attention. A few minutes and $60,000 later, the May 11 foal was hers.

“I bid twice and I was looking around thinking, 'Oh, my gosh, I must have missed something that someone else saw or noticed,'” Hubbard recollected. “But overall, he was just a really nice-shaped horse. His legs, he had good angles and he had a little pot-belly, but you could see the raw shape underneath it all.”

The immature, young and unrefined racehorse she'd plucked out of the sale on behalf of Sayjay Racing's Steve Young, now named Country Grammer, can become North America's first $20-million racehorse should he successfully defend his title at Meydan Racecourse this Saturday.

Making the Short 'List'

To call any son or daughter of Tapit a surprise package would be a bit of a stretch, but Tonalist proved to be one of the more versatile gallopers in recent memory. Winner of the GII Peter Pan S. at a mile and an eighth in May 2014, the Shel Evans homebred successfully stretched out to 12 furlongs to annex the GI Belmont S. and closed the campaign victoriously in the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup over a mile and two furlongs.

A razor-sharp winner of the one-mile GIII Westchester H. on his 4-year-old debut, he was third to his fellow future Lane's End stallion barnmates Honor Code and Liam's Map in the GI Whitney S. before joining the likes of Slew o'Gold, Creme Fraiche, Skip Away and Curlin as back-to-back winners of the Gold Cup. Following a fifth behind American Pharoah in the 2015 GI Breeders' Cup Classic, Tonalist earned an all-important Grade I at eight panels in the Cigar Mile H.

Hubbard was more than willing to roll the dice on the son of the Forestry mare Arabian Song, whose female family includes Juddmonte luminaries such as Group 1 winner Etoile Montante (Miswaki), her MGSW daughter Starformer (Dynaformer), GISW Obligatory (Curlin) and MGSW/MGISP Bonny South (Munnings).

“I liked the idea of Tonalist as a first-crop sire, and I looked at a couple,” Hubbard said. “I don't generally just try to cherry-pick stallions. I just look at everything and what looks athletic and has a shape to it. When I saw him, I had followed up another Tonalist the day before, got outbid, went back to [the Arabian Song colt] and I thought he was a nicer physical than the one the day before.”

Neither was she put off by the colt's foaling date.

“I generally like to find a little bit later horses, just because we don't care about waiting on him and starting them a little bit later,” Hubbard said. “I remember talking to the consignor after I got him and she was asking about our plans.”

Seller's Remorse?

Though she had previously bought horses to race for Sayjay–including three-time Grade III winner Blended Citizen (Proud Citizen) in whom she was a partner–the Tonalist colt was bought as a potential horse for the 2-year-old sales and was turned over to Wavertree Stables' Ciaran Dunne.

“Right from the get-go, [Dunne] liked him,” she said. “I remember in December, he called me and he told me, 'The belly's gone. He's starting to shoot up and he's growing all the right ways. It was truthfully about December or January that he just looked like he was already maturing, which was surprising for a May foal, but yeah, he never missed a beat. We waited until April to sell him only to give him a little bit more time, but when I went there in March, I remember I was there with Neil Drysdale and there was a couple of other guys. We all pulled him out and everyone said the same thing, 'Wow, that's a nice two-turn horse.' At that time, I was pretty excited to continue with selling him in April.

She continued, “I looked at [the colt] in March when I went out [to Ocala], and Ciaran was raving about him,” she recollected. “I'm like, 'Well, we're going to continue with the sale. When I got back, [Steve Young] looked at me and he said, “This isn't a Grade I winner, is it?” I looked at him. I'm like, 'You never know.' When he went back up for sale, I tried to get him back interested and he said, 'Well, we already made money. Let's just watch him with his career.'”

The colt advertised himself at the breeze show for the OBS April Sale, covering a quarter-mile in :21 flat, even if the clocking was not entirely his selling point.

“The way he moved was all at the one pace and effortless,” Hubbard said. “It obviously showed that he was going to be a horse that could cover distance.”

And that he certainly has.

Pete Bradley would go on to give $450,000 for the colt–that part of the story will appear in this space in Thursday's TDN.

Hubbard will be thirty-some thousand feet over the country, destination Ocala, when the World Cup jumps around 12:35 Saturday afternoon.

“He looks good in there. That's for sure,” she said. “We're excited to watch him. I'll be on a plane back to Florida, but I'll definitely still be keeping in touch with that.”

If her fellow passengers experience any clear-air turbulence, they might not want to point a finger at the pilot.

Current favorite & defending #DubaiWorldCup champ COUNTRY GRAMMER in his final breeze @RacingDubai for the $12 million test, going 5f with @Antonio1Fresu in the saddle, substituting for amico @FrankieDettori. #DWC23

Full videohttps://t.co/KzNHTXzaon pic.twitter.com/JvslRnnDTF

— Michael Adolphson (@AdolphsonRacing) March 20, 2023

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Breaking well but in no hurry to challenge the eager early speed, Root Cause stalked from the two path in third through the first bend. Midway up the backstretch, the eye-catching bay found herself locked in traffic as Tawaret (Pioneerof the Nile) rushed up the rail to claim an opening and the field was closing ranks around her for the run through the far turn. Shuffled back to fifth as 1:13.80 flashed across the board, Irad Ortiz opted for the overland route, and was full of horse when they arrived at the head of the stretch. Unleashing a wicked turn of foot, Root Cause put 2 1/2 lengths on her rivals with a motionless rider in the irons and won as easily as she pleased to claim her diploma over Settling Storm (Tonalist).

A half to Vertical Oak (Giant Oak), MGSW, $773,095–herself dam of 'TDN Rising Star' SP Giant Mischief (Into Mischief)–the victress is her sire's 37th runner to get the TDN stamp of approval. Half-brother Payne (Paynter), SP, $437,870 was a six-time winner in his own right. Thus far the most recent to the races, Root Cause has a 2-year-old half-sister Mitole Vision (Mitole) as well as a yearling half-sister by Authentic. Vertical Vision visited Caravaggio for 2023.

#2 ROOT CAUSE ($2.40) and @iradortiz draw clear in the final stages to take the Sunday opener @GulfstreamPark for trainer Chad Brown. pic.twitter.com/bM0gLsQrJL

— TVG (@TVG) March 19, 2023

1st-Gulfstream, $70,000, Msw, 3-19, 3yo, f, 1 1/8mT, 1:49.11, fm, 2 1/2 lengths.
ROOT CAUSE, f, 3, by Into Mischief
1st Dam: Vertical Vision {MSW, $202,979} by Pollard's Vision)
2nd Dam: Caney Creek, by Service Stripe
3rd Dam: Grace Creek, by Allen's Prospect
Sales record: $375,000 Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $63,000. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
O-Jeff Drown; B-Warran J Harang (KY); T-Chad C. Brown.

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Yes, for those few young stallions that do manage to seize their fleeting opportunity, a narrow path can rise rapidly towards lucrative heights. Most of the others, however, find themselves clinging to a crumbling ledge. Whatever you do, don't look down!

It's easy to disparage the robotic tendencies of the commercial market. Too easy, certainly, for me to have neglected the opportunity to do so quite regularly during this series. On the other hand, however skewed, it's an environment that creates legitimate values of its own. It may seem ludicrous that young stallions should be written off on the basis of a single crop, but the reality is that they will typically have received their biggest and best books in their rookie year. The freshman who lives by hype must also expect to die by hype.

As a result, having hitherto reviewed five intakes individually, today we combine three different classes at various stages of the same process: “earning their stripes”, as we've called it.

In the previous instalment, the first to deal with sires that have actually had some initial racetrack exposure, we felt able to persevere with our high hopes for a horse like Accelerate on the basis that it plainly remains far too soon to reach any conclusions about whether his stock can emulate his own, slow-maturing template. But sires that are only a little farther along the road have, in varying degrees, at least had a more meaningful test of their competence to recycle their prowess.

In each of the three groups combined today, a single horse has broken out immediately before consolidating to become a member of the six-figure club: Gun Runner, Not This Time and Constitution. They have respectively had one, two and three crops show what they can do round a second turn with sophomore maturity. The difficulty is that while few commercial breeders can afford the kind of fees now commanded by these three, even fewer will persevere with those other sires whose fees and reputations have begun to slide. Because everybody knows that those governing ringside investment will be timidly following the herd–and if things are already starting to look ominous for a stallion, then it certainly takes plenty of courage to persevere in the hope of a major turnaround before the 2025 yearling sales.

For the agents and managers, a terrifying risk isn't the unproven new stallion, no matter how flimsy his credentials. It's the horse that everyone else has abandoned, on however cursory a basis. Of course, if you still fervently believe in such a horse, you get the same genetic package for far less money. But that will only represent “value” to the few who remain prepared to play a longer game: either as end users, or as breeders farsighted enough to understand that there should be nothing more commercial than putting a winner under your mare. For everyone else, wanting or needing to trouser a profit as soon as possible, “value” can only be found in anticipating demand.

As I've repeatedly acknowledged in this series, that demand is partly predicated on its self-fulfilling nature. If so many mares are simply moved from one rookie to the next, then it's unsurprising if you get the kind of dividends we saw with the freshmen of 2022–who accounted for seven of the top 14 in the all-comers' juvenile prize money table.

But there's another side to the same coin. There's a stallion out there right now who was launched at a very fair fee by an outstanding farm, and duly filled his first book before looking after commercial breeders beautifully on his sales debut. Everybody, me included, thought he looked a smash. Unfortunately, he had a very quiet time with his first juveniles—and the following spring he covered SEVEN mares. Nobody, it seemed, was prepared to see whether maturity and two turns would vindicate the impression many of us had formed of his prospects. Okay, so that first crop made only mild improvement as sophomores. But who, now, would dare to roll the dice on what is now a giveaway fee? It really does seem that nowadays you get one chance, and only one, or face commercial extinction overnight.

Already, then, many of the horses we consider today look gone beyond recall: either to the rarefied fee levels achieved by Gun Runner, Not This Time and Constitution, or preparing to pack their bags during the next couple of years for overseas or regional programs. That's why we have to combine three different classes for a single podium: once you have lost the freshman limelight, you are in an open market and it's every stallion for himself.

Sometimes even those who survive this brutal process must ride out a small bump in the road. Even our old friend Not This Time–we have been on his side throughout, but can hardly keep him on a value podium at this kind of fee–was quieter with his juveniles in 2022, despite again maintaining his overall stakes action at a terrific rate. That's because they graduate from a crop of 64 live foals, conceived pending his first runners. (His mare upgrade will start to kick in with his 2024 juveniles, conceived at $40,000 from $12,500.)

Gun Runner will endure no such hiatus, albeit his second crop of juveniles understandably couldn't get anywhere near repeating the record-breaking pace set by his first. Perhaps the freshmen of 2022 will prove a stronger group than those he dominated in 2021. That's the kind of calculation required in making our choice for a combined podium, embracing stallions at different phases of consolidation.

It's a tricky undertaking, for sure, but let's see whether we can turn up some residual value somewhere.

BUBBLING UNDER:

Growing momentum for CONNECT did not really reach the sales ring in 2022, but he has some really significant reinforcements on the horizon after a bright start on the track. No fewer than 172 breeders (very much a full book by the restrained standards of his farm) thought him value at $25,000, up from 93 pending his first runners the previous year. That stampede reflects his third place in the freshman table, and growing evidence that he can get you a very good runner for that kind of money.

Connect had two “Derby” winners among his first sophomores, juvenile Grade I winner Rattle N Roll winning the GIII Oklahoma version and High Connection the one at Los Alamitos. Among his daughters, Hidden Connection has more than once flashed elite caliber; while The Alys Look, among the next crop, has already laid down a feasible Oaks marker of her own.

Having been so impressed last year with the ratios achieved by KARAKONTIE (Jpn), I was disappointed that his excellent start on the track earned him no more than 48 mares in 2022, his smallest book in four years. Still, he has a big opportunity now that the enlightened minority prepared to breed to turf stallions in Kentucky has been deprived of both Kitten's Joy and Englis Channel.

Karakontie made his Grade I breakthrough in 2022, through Spendarella in the GI Del Mar Oaks, while his overall stakes/graded stakes action has come at a superior ratio to several more expensive peers. He has also proved more versatile, in terms of surface, than many will have expected–but then he does have a very cosmopolitan pedigree. If his third dam is turf legend Miesque (Nureyev), then his mother was by Sunday Silence while his sire has dirt royalty along his maternal line.

TAPITURE has had to sieve more quantity than quality into his stats, and sure enough only has a solitary graded stakes winner (albeit a good one in millionaire Jesus' Team). Nonetheless he gets black-type action at basically 10% of named foals, no mean effort at just $7,500.

CUPID has had some pretty crazy highs and lows, in his books, but there's no arguing with a fee of $5,000 for a stallion beating 40% winners-to-named foals, including a couple at graded stakes level. Smaller breeders are really being offered quite a lot of horse for their buck here.

BRONZE: UPSTART (Flatter–Party Silks, by Touch Gold)
$30,000 Airdrie
It's the obvious stuff that has earned this fellow a hike in fee: most obviously of all, one of the most talented sophomores of the crop in Zandon, albeit the GI Blue Grass S. winner repeatedly suggested there was better to come even than third in the Derby and Travers. Among Upstart's 10 other stakes winners to date (20 black-type performers overall, representing 11% of named foals), dual Grade II winner Kathleen O. disappeared after her Oaks bid, only to make a most promising resumption in the fall. But the clincher, for me, are the ratios that most people don't consider enough.

Upstart has got over 80% of his named foals onto the track; and over 60% of them into the winner's circle. Among his most accomplished young peers, that compares to 71 and 53% respectively for Constitution; 71 and 42% for American Pharoah; 69 and 46% for Not This Time; and 64 and 36% for Nyquist. Just what is this creature made of? Tungsten?

Sure enough, in his own track career, Upstart achieved two Grade I placings in each of his three campaigns, finishing up with $1.75 million across 15 starts. (While having been forward enough for a 102 Beyer at two, some achievement for a son of Flatter.)

Upstart is cleverly named, if you look at his parentage (and damsire), but now he is clearly rising in stallion society as well. Admittedly he will do well to maintain quite so steep a climb this year, as his sophomores (including impressive recent Fair Grounds scorer Cagliostro) graduate from a book of just 38 covers. But if that is a pathetic commentary on the neurosis of the commercial market, then remember that the momentum behind this guy began even before he could show his wares on the racetrack. His first yearlings averaged six times his $10,000 starting fee, renewing traffic to 90 mares the next spring; while his first two crops both pinhooked to a six-figure average at the 2-year-old sales.

Having seen his stock on the track—and remember that his stellar 2022 sophomores emerged from no more than 86 covers–breeders were quick to fill his book last spring. His latest yearling returns, with an average soaring back up to $90,900 from $25,115 the previous year, will not discourage them from returning at his revised fee.

A fee hike doesn't automatically put a stop to value, and there's a sense that Upstart is only just getting started. With quantity already on its way, he will now have an upgrade in quality too. So here's a rare chance to enter the elevator just a level up from the lobby. Next stop is the penthouse.

SILVER: KEEN ICE (Curlin–Medomak, by Awesome Again)
$12,500 Calumet
Now this suggestion clearly comes with a few neon caveats. He's had a fairly unorthodox career to date and it tells you plenty about his commercial credibility that his latest yearlings, “boosted” by a GI Kentucky Derby winner at the first attempt, bumped along at No. 199 in the national sales averages! But I would love to have one of his daughters for a breeding program, and Rich Strike has at least made it legitimate to wonder what he might yet achieve with an upgrade in his mares.

Keen Ice always had old school appeal, in constitution and pedigree, right from when he started out.

Arguably he was never really priced to entice commercial breeders, at $20,000, and presumably had to settle primarily for plain weight of numbers from the home herd. Yet he has nonetheless proved a really prolific sire of winners (78 from 136 starters to date)—and, setting aside the ifs and buts of the Derby meltdown, Rich Strike has certainly shown a trademark durability at the top level. With the Gun Runner S. on Boxing Day the effective start of his sophomore campaign, he took in 10 starts in 11 months.

A rise to $12,500 from $7,500 hardly helps Keen Ice, in terms of overcoming commercial doubt, but I'd still say that kind of money is value for access to his sheer teak ($3.4 million across 24 starts). Remember that his maternal line extends to matriarch Too Chic (Blushing Groom {Fr}) while his eligibility as a potential broodmare sire is surely reinforced by replication of Deputy Minister: that iconic distaff influence accounts both for Keen Ice's own damsire, Awesome Again, and for the mother of his sire Curlin.

Maybe he's not the answer to everybody's prayers, but his percentage of named foals to make the starting gate, and then to win, are way ahead of the most glamorous names in his intake (with their far superior books). That shows how he's trading in the kind of stuff that any breeding program should appreciate, and it would be nice if he were granted some overdue respect after all the faint praise for his exotic Derby score.

GOLD: TONALIST (Tapit–Settling Mist, by Pleasant Colony)
Lane's End $10,000
Okay, so I understand that the megabucks earned by a single horse distort his status in the earnings table, and various associated averages. (Not dissimilar, as such, to the horse on the second step of the podium.) But I have been too loyal to Tonalist, for too long, to desert him after the year when he plundered all those desert riches with Country Grammer.

Having a poster boy like that has certainly done Tonalist no harm: he was back up to 87 mares last spring, having the previous year slumped to just 54 from 122; and he elevated his yearling average to $53,413 (for an excellent 29 sold of 31 offered) from $32,505. That's really impressive in any stallion at this awkward stage, never mind one who had been so consistently unfashionable that he had taken a fee cut every single year to 2022. His neglect always seemed mysterious to me: I loved the package at the outset (banked $3.6 million via 11 triple-digit Beyers, just as one would hope from a son of Tapit out of a Pleasant Colony granddaughter of Toll Booth) and I have loved the corresponding dependability of his output since.

He has punched above his fee throughout, especially measured by graded stakes action. In this intake Constitution has been hitting pretty mad numbers, but otherwise Tonalist's 4.5% of graded stakes operators-to-named foals is basically in step with American Pharoah and ahead of everyone else.

His template, for those who want horses that run, and keep running, is just so wholesome. Take the thriving Betsy Blue, just turned five but better than ever. It's a long time now since she broke her maiden under a $25,000 tag: on her 19th, 20th and 21st starts this winter, she placed on her graded stakes debut before winning consecutive black type prizes. Her record now reads 21-10-7-2 for $659,510. Another from the same crop, Who's The Star, took six starts to break his maiden back in 2018 but is similarly on a roll now, running up three consecutive graded stakes on his last three starts. If this guy gets in contention, you're in trouble: the only minor placings in his 17-7-1-2 record trace way back to his first maidens.

This is the kind of stuff we need to be putting into the breed: heart, resilience and “run”. Everything, in other words, we associate with Tonalist's sire and damsire. Imagine what he could do with better mares. Of course, if you happen to own one, you don't have to just imagine. You can find out, and for a near-basement fee. For everyone else trading at this kind of money, however, there aren't many better ways of affordably putting a winner under your mare.

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WinStar is the co-owner of both horses.

Colonel Liam (Liam's Map), who finished ninth in the GI Dubai Turf, is also being sent to WinStar.

The heavy favorite in the wagering, Life Is Good, who is also owned by the China Horse Club, suffered just the second defeat in his career. He led for most of the way but weakened in the final sixteenth of a mile, which suggests that the mile-and-a-quarter distance was not to his liking. He finished fourth, beaten 2 1/4 lengths.

“I thought he ran well,” Walden said. “We were obviously disappointed that he didn't win, but it's not like he laid down and threw in the towel. He ran hard. I think the track was not quite to his liking. They ran a mile-and-a-quarter in 2:04.97. In the Shaheen sprint they went in 1:11 and change. Those horses should have gone in 1:09. The mile-and-a-quarter on this type of track was a big factor.”

Before the Dubai World Cup, the GI Metropolitan S. had been mentioned as a possible starting spot for Life Is Good, but Walden said it was too early to make any plans so far as his future racing schedule.

Closing relentlessly in the final furlong, Country Grammer, also owned by Zedan Racing, drew clear to win by 1 3/4 lengths over Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow). He is trained by Bob Baffert, the former trainer of Life Is Good.

“Country Grammer ran super,” Walden said. “We felt like that if Life is Good stubbed his toe he could be a horse that could win and that's what happened.”

Walden said that no races had been picked out as of yet for Country Grammer but listed the GI Pacific Classic as a possibility.

As for Hot Rod Charlie, trainer Doug O'Neill said some time off at a farm is also a possibility for the four-year-old.

“He came back in good shape and I can tell you that we have no idea where we are going with him,” O'Neill said. “He'll come back to my barn and then we will go over him and talk with the owners. He may get a couple weeks at a local farm to graze and get some sun on his back. He's earned it. I was elated with how well he ran. We were so optimistic going into the gate and then mid-race it looked like it wasn't going to be his day. Then turning for him, he came running down the inside and I got to the point where I thought he might win. It was a whirlwind of emotions.”

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“All my horses are crossed with stallions that I feel will throw appealing and sound horses that can provide second and third careers off the track and provide longevity to the breed,” said Fisher. “I look for soundness and attitude with the idea that my foals can have long futures in any discipline after racing.”

APPEALING WAY (m, 8, Tizway–Turkappeal, by Turkoman), to be bred to Complexity

This mare is a half-sister to [GSW] Pink Champagne (Awesome Again) and has a lovely physical. While small in stature, she crosses extremely well with Complexity and should produce a really nice foal.

CHARLIE'S CANDY (m, 6, Twirling Candy–Sister Charlie, by Indian Charlie), to be bred to Tonalist

With a recent black-type winner out of her sister, this mare is big in size and complements Tonalist quite nicely. She should produce a nice, big foal.

FAIRY KERI (m, 3, Fed Biz–Keri's Snowman, by Frosty the Snowman), to be bred to Leofric

She has a phenomenal pedigree with lots of black-type. I chose Leofric for her as he isn't overpowering in size but was a force on the track. His foals look good and have a decent chance to be productive runners.

LAST GREAT (m, 6, Albert the Great–Crouching Thunder, by Thunder Gulch), to be bred to Modernist

Her track record wasn't great but she has the pedigree of a nice regional mare. She is tall in size with excellent balance. Her size makes her a good cross for Modernist who, in my opinion, was bred to be a sire.

LINE OF VISION (m, 7, Court Vision–Gold Lined, by Numerous), to be bred to Audible

She was a multiple stakes winner and a hard-knocking mare. She is short and compact. I chose Audible for her as the line crosses well with Into Mischief. Also because he is tall but not overpowering and has good balance to him. Hopefully this cross will produce a foal that is tall and compact, capable of decent distance.

MONEY INTHE STARRS (m, 6, Abraaj–Our Monstarr, by Demons Begone), to be bred to Knicks Go

This mare is a regional champion in her home state. Sleek and built like a classic racehorse, I chose Knicks Go for this mare. Hoping to throw the heart of both horses and resilience that Knicks Go showed on the track.

LADYSGOTGAME (m, 11, Street Sense–Lady Gamer, by Game Plan), to be bred to Basin

He was a good racehorse and I'm hoping with her legs and stature, she will throw some bone and leg into her foal.

BAREFOOT NATIVE (m, 6, Graydar–Elke, by Dixie Union), to be bred to Spun to Run

It's an excellent cross and her size should put some leg and length to this horse.

NON NEGOTIABLE (m, 9, Distorted Humor–Kiss Mine, by Mineshaft), to be bred to Rock Your World

This Candy Ride (Arg) and Distorted Humor cross is excellent. While the mare herself isn't big, the hope is that they produce a nice foal with good leg and shoulder.

RICH IMAGE (m, 5, Imagining–Richetta, by Polish Numbers), to be bred to Independence Hall

He was an excellent racehorse. Tall with classic build and structure. This mare is good size while slightly compact. I'm hoping to get a foal of similar stature to the stallion.

SAFFRON GIRL (m, 5, Tapizar–Mattie Camp, by Forest Camp), to be bred to McKinzie

This stallion speaks for himself, but this mare is all class. She is tall with excellent motion in her movements. A bit long so am hoping for better balance in the cross.

Let us know who you're breeding your mares to in 2022, and why. We will print a selection of your responses in TDN over the coming weeks. Please send details to: garyking@thetdn.com.

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