13.45

PERSIAN SPRING  124.8
RLASTHOPE  113.3
CRAVEN FORCE  81.5
THE GINGER KID  40.3
ROCK STEADY BEAT  34.3
LEAVE THE BAG IN  32.7
RANTING DUKE  30.5
STATTEN ISLAND  30.0
STAR PEOPLE  29.7
TOON ARMY  28.2
SIR SIRIUS 23.2
SUE’S LAST CHANCE  22.3
THE RESDEV ROMAN  22.3
SAXY LASS  21.8
MR MINZ  20.0
CLASH OF HEARTS  19.7

14.20

COPPER KNIGHT  196.8
COROLLA POINT  182.8
AIR FORCE ONE  182.7
JAKAJARO  179.0
LUNA A INBHIR NIS  164.2
SPORTS COACH  161.0
REDORANGE  160.0
HAMMER THE HAMMER 159.7
ARKLOW LAD  159.2
AGAINST THE WIND  157.3
ZIGGY’S TRITON  154.3
ETERNAL SUNSHINE  153.7
HEAVENLY HEATHER  153.0
LETHAL NYMPH  152.3
BRAZEN BOLT  150.3
TOCA MADERA  149.5
STURLASSON  147.8
BERGERAC  145.2
SQUEALER  142.8
I’M NEXT  138.8
STORMY IMPACT  134.8
BLINKY  130.0

14.55

SHOUT  219.0
CERULEAN BAY  201.7
POINT LYNAS  190.8
WALSINGHAM  179.2
MIRSKY  175.5
SEA FORCE  172.7
VAFORTINO  164.8
DUKE’S COMMAND  164.7
THEORYOFEVERYTHING  160.5
OLD COCK  157.3
GALERON  156.7
THUNDER ROAR  156.7
DIEGO VENTURA  149.7
ELDRICKJONES  146.8
FIRST PRINCIPLE  140.8
CROUPIER  138.3
GODWINSON  136.2
POINT OF CONTACT  133.2
MAYBE NOT  132.5

15.30

SEE THE FIRE  248.8
FALLEN ANGEL  243.2
RED LETTER  227.2
DIAMOND RAIN  209.5

16.05

CHRISTMAS DAY  219.2
MORSHDI  210.3
ACTION  210.3
AL ZANATI  199.2
WISE PRINCE  191.0
KING’S TRAIL  184.5
GUILDMASTER  174.3
ITEM  153.3

16.40

ASPECT ISLAND  208.7
REVIVAL POWER  180.2
BLACK STAR BOY  178.0
EXCLAMATION  165.2
TEMPLE OF ATHENA  164.8
SIMPLIFY  157.7
PALMEIRA  157.5
DICKENSIAN  157.5
MANATEE MEHMAS  154.3
WOR FAAYTH  149.8
BOSTON DAN  147.3

17.15

STONEACRE DONNY  161.2
SUDBURY HILL  161.5
DRYBURGH  141.0
BALTIC FLEET  138.8
TOMMO’S GINJANINJA  135.7
COTTON BUD  135.3
HARD TO BELIEVE  133.8
HEROICS  128.0
PARISIAN SCHOLAR  125.3
KNIGHTSAIL  107.8
NORTHERN BRAVE  104.7
PENDELLA  78.8
HOWSHAM  75.3
CHARLES DARNAY  67.2
WICKSEY  42.2

13.30
Seven Questions  188
Roman Dragon  182
Vintage Clarets  172
Ruby’s Profit  165
Roach Power  157
Canon’s House  155
Dapper Valley  152
Atomic Force  151
Smart Vision  148
Stratusnine  92
Dubai Bling  77

14.05
Jazz Queen  147
Sunrise at Dawn  120
Paper View  115
Caturra Lights  101
Undercover Affair  78
Furturra  76
Donegal Rose  71
Koodini  49
Andalnade  44
Penny Capri  40
Dubai Champion  38

14.35
Morshdi  275
Shayem  189
Flushing Meadows  169
Constitution River  167
Golden Story  156
Generic  114

15.05
Al Qareem  287
Illinois  241
Jan Brueghel  237
Mount Atlas  215
Rahiebb  205
Sons and Lovers  198
Real Dream  160
Beylerbeyi  157

15.40
Utmost Good Faith  228
Strength of Spirit  197
Monarch’s Gold  169
Command the Stars  165
Archer Royal  164
Gentle George  159
Caballo Grande  157
McMurray  155
Factual  142
Moonfall  141
King of Thunder  123
I’m Just Ken  116
Aqua Bear  95
Cool Molly  77

16.10
Londoner  180
Let’s Dream  180
Organ  170
Jupiter Ammon  167
Spioradalta  166
Galyx  161
Dante’s Lad  158
Harvey  153
Bravais  153
Celeborn  143
Seagolazo  142
Wanderlust  125
Hamadhan  96
Rastnet  83

16.45
High Storm  210
Parisian Scholar  168
Moment of Light  161
Galilean Quality  148
Magnetude  144
Be the Standard  143
Mythical Bay  126
Oratorical  119
Carwyn  118

1 COLCANNON  161.8
5 LEADER D’ALLIER  105.0
9 BEAUVALLON  93.7
4 GAMEBALL  60.3
8 TECHNO DAVIS  59.3
7 IONIAN  58.5
10 IMMEDIATE EFFECT  54.5
2 FORT DINO  49.0
6 NADIA’S BOY  47.3
11 ALWAYSGOINHOME  47.2
3 FRIARY ROAD  31.0
2
15:05

3 BLUE VELVET  149.3
4 DIAMOND DU BERLAIS  144.0
5 FUTURE PROSPECT  128.0
2 ALLITERATION  107.3
6 ADRIENNE  64.3
1 CATCHABIRD  51.2
3
15:40

2 VANILLIER  129.8
4 DESERTMORE HOUSE  114.7
13 THE GOFFER  105.5
3 BUSSELTON  81.7
6 SHANNON ROYALE  66.8
7 VITAL ISLAND  55.5
12 THE BOSSES OSCAR  48.2
9 BODHISATTVA  42.8
11 LOUGH DERG SPIRIT  40.2
10 CAVALRY MASTER  39.5
5 DORANS LAW  39.2
8 BENNY THE DUKE  35.7
1 OUTSIDE THE DOOR  28.8
14 WALKING ON GLASS  26.8
4
16:15

1 HEWICK  178.0
14 FILLYOUREYE  132.7
26 CHANCE ANOTHER ONE  81.8
3 DA CAPO GLORY  66.2
10 DAYDREAM NATION  62.5
17 MARGARET’S LEGACY  61.2
9 ONEWAYWEST  57.8
4 MINELLA SIXO  56.5
8 GRANN’S BOY  56.2
11 BALLYBOW  53.8
18 SEANIECON  55.0
16 BLUE MOSQUE  53.5
6 CHAMPAGNE CHIC  50.2
2 KARL DES TOURELLES  49.8
25 BRIDIE’S BEAU  48.2
7 DUKE SILVER  47.0
13 BALLYKINLAR  44.2
12 BALLYSTONE  38.5
19 BUACHAILLBOCHT  38.3
20 FAD EADRAINN  38.2
23 THE LOVELY MAN  37.8
15 ONE BIG BOUM  37.8
5 THE BIG CLUBMAN  35.8
21 ICARE DESBOIS  30.8
22 SIGN FROM ABOVE  33.5
24 BILLY LEE SWAGGER  31.5
5
16:50

5 ESCAPEANDEVADE  176.2
15 JALILA MORIVIERE  105.3
3 COME WALK WITH ME  96.5
4 CORAL RIVER  90.5
12 BIRDIE OR BUST  67.3
6 RAFFLES DOLCE VITA  61.8
11 SKY LORD  59.0
14 INDIANA JONES  57.8
16 MCLAUREY  57.2
2 WESTERN DIEGO  51.3
7 PATH D’OROUX  52.2
10 RELIEVED OF DUTIES  46.8
17 PETIT TONNERRE  47.0
1 BALLYSAX HANK  44.2
8 RELEASE THE BEAST  45.5
9 THE KING OF PRS  41.8
19 DONT GO YET  43.2
13 GOLDEN JOY  38.8
20 TUCKMILL  31.8
18 SESKIN FLASH  29.7
6
17:25

5 SALVATOR MUNDI  167.0
3 KOPEK DES BORDES  130.0
2 JACOB’S LADDER  109.8
4 PURE STEEL  96.2
1 IRISH PANTHER  56.5
7
18:05

7 TEAHUPOO  174.5
1 BOB OLINGER 116.3
5 KAWABOOMGA  80.7
4 JIMMY DU SEUIL  68.7
3 HONESTY POLICY  67.2
6 MEET AND GREET  63.2
8 JETARA  62.2
2 FRANCISCAN ROCK  40.5
8
18:35

3 LOOK ME  172.3
5 SOUL ASYLUM  90.2
11 QUIRYN  79.0
1 BOIS D’ANGOS  67.5
10 OUR TRIGGER  57.0
4 OUTOFAFRIKA  54.8
9 ADABOY MUSHY  53.0
2 BON BON FIZZ  52.5
6 COWBOY CASANOVA  48.5
8 IT’S GOOD TO TALK  44.8
7 HIGHLANDER ADDICT  34.5

13:50
Sovereign Spell  21.49
Rogue Supremacy  7.68
Song Of The Clyde  4.03
Reciprocated  3.78
Treanmor  3.45
First Legion  2.82
Ironwill  2.47
Sayidah Hard Spun  2.46
Silent Applause  1.92
Albaydaa  1.80
Lebron Power  1.45
Advertised 1.23
Enricher  1.18
Boston Dan  0.85
Pilu  0.75
Sir Alfie  0.48

14:25
Crown Knott  6.69
Portcullis  5.17
Santushti  5.13
North Beach  2.16
Bemersyde  1.15
Impierious  0.71
Dark Whisper  0.45
Take A Chill Pil l 0.43
Cosmo Brown 0.19
Me An’ All  0.18

15:00
Aramram  12.71
Jasour  8.42
Quinault  7.54
Time For Sandals  7.53
Washington Heights  4.43
Beckford’s Folly  3.20
Prince Of India  2.59
Elmonjed  2.39
Diligent Harry  2.11
Completely Random  1.86
My Mate Alfie  1.40
Crestofdistinction  1.33
Run To Freedom  1.24
Aspect Island  1.21

15:35
Hawk Mountain  33.87
Hidden Force 32.43
Hankelow  11.07
Avicenna  9.15
Oxagon  4.94
Venetian Prince  3.24
Commander’s Intent  1.53

16:10
Baandee  26.36
Hassaleh 4.67
Thursday Girl  3.26
Pointe Bleu  2.74
Eloquencia  2.46
La Mariposa 0.62

16:45
Amadeus Mozart  17.99
Maho Bay  9.58
Guildmaster  6.67
Sir Griflet  3.06
Birgham Dub  1.86
Galiyan  0.50

17:20
Goldmoyne  12.54
Eminency  8.33
God Of War  6.10
Physique  4.96
Dragon Leader  4.48
Jumby  3.73
Jordan Electrics  3.36
Gangsta Man  3.07
Bold Impact  1.88
Havana Pusey  1.74
Percy’s Lad  1.44
Storm Free  1.36
Dapper Guest  1.04
Sujet  1.03
Huscal  0.94
Crimson Spirit  0.92
Royal Velvet  0.64
Morte Point 0.60

13:45
MAESTRO CONTI  24.23
MINELLA STUDY  16.82
SELMA DE VARY  6.16
AMMES  5.33
WINSTON JUNIOR  4.65
MANGE TOUT  3.51
AQUA BLEU  2.97
INDIAN RIVER  2.41
WOLF RAYET  2.33
LORD  1.65

14:20
LULAMBA  48.02
JAX JUNIOR  23.26
BLUEKING D’OROUX  16.38
MAMBONUMBERFIVE  7.76
KOKTAIL DIVIN  5.21

14:55
JANGO BAIE  33.68
PROTEKTORAT  28.32
IMPAIRE ET PASSE  15.61
PIC D’ORHY  11.73
SPILLANE’S TOWER  10.07

15:30
ITS ON THE LINE  21.88
BARTON SNOW  21.43
UNEXPECTED PARTY  8.73
LETS GO CHAMP  3.44
THUNDER ROCK  2.06
GOLDEN SON  2.04
JOKER DE MAI  1.56
MUSIC DRIVE  1.47
FAMOUS CLERMONT  1.21
SNIPE  1.10
GRACCHUS DE BALME  1.08
JAVA POINT  0.98
GABORIOT  0.62
FAIRLY FAMOUS  0.51
ENQARDE  0.35
EMPIRE DE MAULDE  0.29
WHATS THE SOLUTION  0.27
A JET OF OUR OWN  0.25
DENSWORTH  0.25
HOLLYWOOD HARMON  0.24
A MOMENTS MADNESS  0.24
WILLEWONGA  0.24
GREAT NOTIONS  0.23
TAKE ALL  0.23
FAN DE BLUES  0.22

16:05
BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD  34.87
THE NEW LION  28.82
EL FABIOLO  14.51
POTTERS CHARM  12.43
ALEXEI  7.12
GOLDEN ACE  3.72
LUCKY PLACE  3.05

16:40
PALAMON  53.86
SANS BRUIT  8.16
STENCIL  4.12
HIGHLANDS LEGACY  1.50
BOOTHILL  0.71
BROOKIE  0.64
INTHEPOCKET  0.63
HERCULE DU SEUIL  0.57
WONLEG  0.53
GRAIN D’OUDAIRIES  0.48
JAVERT ALLEN  0.42
DR T J ECKLEBURG  0.40
RYAN’S ROCKET  0.39
PETIT TONNERRE  0.36
JASKO DES DAMES  0.34

17:15
TI’MAMZEL  124.46
TIKTOK CASEY  10.09
NAN’S CHOICE  5.54
LENNON GROVE  3.01
SEVEN STARS  2.76
PRINCESS DAY  2.60
KILTYBO  2.43
MARTINI MAJESTY  2.30
BURDS OF A FEATHER  2.27
IT WOULD BE YOU  2.07
LADIES DAY  2.05
FAIRY PARK  2.02
PEACE BELLE  1.98
ROXY RUSSET  1.95
ONE DIMENSIONAL  1.87
BILLEY SHIFTIT  1.79
DIVINE DIVA  1.69
BRAVE LADY  1.42
EMERALD QUEST  1.33
MIDNIGHT MUSICAL  1.25

The following analysis uses the primary trends from the last 12 years (2014–2025) to evaluate the 2026 contenders.

Key 12-Year Trends (2014–2025)

Irish Dominance: 10 of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland.
The Mullins Factor: Willie Mullins has won 11 renewals in total (5 in the last 10 years).
Official Rating: 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 150 or higher.
Age Profile: 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 5 and 7.
Last Time Out: 9 of the last 12 winners won or finished 2nd on their previous start.
Market Strength: 9 of the last 12 winners were returned at 6/1 or shorter.

Runner Analysis & Preference List

1. Wodhooh (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jack Kennedy)

Trends Fit: 10/10. The 6-year-old Irish mare is the highest-rated in the field (154) and fits every major trend. She is a previous Festival winner (2025 Martin Pipe) and has won 9 of her 10 starts over hurdles. Her only defeat came against the absent superstar Lossiemouth.
Verdict: She is the “statistically perfect” horse for this race. Her tactical versatility and Course & Distance (C&D) winning form make her the one to beat.

2. Jade De Grugy (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)

Trends Fit: 9/10. Representing the most successful trainer in the race’s history. She was 2nd in this race last year (behind Lossiemouth) and is rated 150. While she has spent this season over fences, the trend of high-class mares reverting from chasing to win this race is well-established (e.g., Benie Des Dieux).
Verdict: The clear danger. As the sole representative of the Mullins yard, historical stats suggest she will be peak-fit and highly competitive on drying ground.

3. Feet Of A Dancer (Trainer: Paul Nolan | Jockey: Sean O’Keeffe)

Trends Fit: 7/10. An Irish-trained 7-year-old who won her last start (Grade 2 at Doncaster). However, she is rated 141, which is significantly lower than the typical winner’s profile of 150+. She was also beaten by Wodhooh earlier this season.
Verdict: A solid each-way contender who rarely runs a bad race but may lack the “Grade 1 engine” required to trouble the top two.

4. Take No Chances (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton)

Trends Fit: 6/10. The leading British hope. She was 3rd in this race last year and is an 8-year-old, placing her just outside the ideal 5–7 age bracket. While consistent, her current rating of 145 suggests she needs a career-best performance.
Verdict: Consistent place prospect but historical stats favour the younger Irish-trained mares for the top spot.

5. Jetara (Trainer: Mrs John Harrington | Jockey: Sam Ewing)

Trends Fit: 5/10. An 8-year-old who has struggled for a win this season (0 from 4). Although Irish-trained and 4th in this race last year, she hasn’t shown the progression needed to bridge the gap to the 150-rated rivals.
Verdict: Likely to battle for minor honours but faces an uphill task to win.

6. Dream On Baby (Trainer: Emmet Mullins | Jockey: Donagh Meyler)

Trends Fit: 4/10. A 6-year-old rated 139. While she is Irish-trained and won a Listed race at Kempton in November, she has been comfortably beaten by both Wodhooh and Feet Of A Dancer in subsequent starts.
Verdict: Improvement required; stats suggest she is outclassed here.

7. Sunset Marquesa (Trainer: Joe Tizzard | Jockey: Brendan Powell)

Trends Fit: 2/10. A British-trained outsider rated 129. She fails to meet the ratings, trainer, or form trends associated with winners of this Grade 1 contest.
Verdict: The rank outsider with significant ground to make up on the principals.

Order of Preference

1. Wodhooh (Strongest trend match and class leader)
2. Jade De Grugy (The “Mullins Factor” and proven C&D form)
3. Feet Of A Dancer (Best of the rest with upward momentum)
4. Take No Chances (Reliable place candidate)
5. Jetara
6. Dream On Baby
7. Sunset Marquesa

The going is Good to Soft, which on the New Course over 2 miles and 4 furlongs typically plays into the hands of a horse with “speed-stamina” versatility—those who find 2 miles too sharp but 3 miles a fraction too far.

The 12-Year Trends: Ryanair Chase

Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9.
Class/Rating: 12 out of the last 12 winners were rated 161 or higher. This is strictly a race for established elite chasers.
Cheltenham Factor: 11 of the last 12 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival, and 9 of those had already won at the track.
Grade 1 Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had a Grade 1 victory already on their CV.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least twice earlier that season.
The “Mullins/Nicholls” Grip: These two trainers have accounted for 6 of the last 12 winners.

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. Fact To File (Age: 7 | NR: 185.5)

The Verdict: He is the quintessential Ryanair horse. At 7 years old, he is in the peak age bracket. He is already a Festival winner (2024 Brown Advisory) and his Neural Rating of 185.5 is the highest recorded in this division for three years. He fits the “Course Winner” and “Grade 1 Winner” trends perfectly. His tactical speed on Good to Soft ground is arguably his greatest weapon.
Trend Score: 10/10

2. Jonbon (Age: 12 | NR: 152.0)

The Verdict: A high-class operator, but he is now moving into the “veteran” category at age 12. Only one horse in the last 12 years has won this aged older than 9 (Envoi Allen at 9, and Frodon at 7). While his NR is strong and his class is undeniable, history suggests he may struggle to hold off a younger, peaking improver like Fact To File.
Trend Score: 8/10 (Age is a significant trend negative).

3. Impaire Et Passe (Age: 8 | NR: 108.2)

The Verdict: He fits the age trend (8) and the “Mullins-trained” trend. He has a Festival win to his name (Baring Bingham) and has the cruising speed for 2.5 miles. While his NR in chasing is lower than Jonbon’s, his trend profile for this specific race is arguably cleaner as an 8-year-old “bridger” of distances.
Trend Score: 9/10

4. Banbridge (Age: 10 | NR: 66.3)

The Verdict: A specialist on Good to Soft/Good ground. He skipped the race in previous years due to soft ground, so conditions are finally in his favour. However, at age 10, he is just outside the preferred age bracket. His jumping is his main asset, but his NR suggests he lacks the “X-factor” speed of the favourite.
Trend Score: 7/10

5. Matata (Age: 7 | NR: 72.3)

The Verdict: A bold, front-running type who fits the age profile. He will likely lead the field and test the jumping of others. However, he lacks the Grade 1 win trend (11 of the last 12 winners had one) and his rating suggests he is a high-end handicapper rather than a genuine Ryanair king.
Trend Score: 6/10

6. Master Chewy (Age: 9 | NR: 64.7)

The Verdict: A consistent performer in Grade 1 company this year, but he has become somewhat “exposed.” He fits the age profile but lacks the “Season Win” trend that 10 of the last 12 winners possessed.
Trend Score: 5/10

7. JPR One (Age: 9 | NR: 59.8)

The Verdict: Similar to Master Chewy, he is a solid Grade 2/3 horse who has struggled to make the breakthrough at the top level. He fits the age and course-experience trends but fails the “Rating 161+” class threshold.
Trend Score: 4/10

8. Heart Wood (Age: 8 | NR: 55.7)

The Verdict: Winner of the Leopardstown Handicap Chase in 2024, but his transition to Grade 1 level has been steady rather than spectacular. He is the right age, but lacks the “Grade 1 Winner” trend.
Trend Score: 4/10

9. Croke Park (Age: 8 | NR: 64.3)

The Verdict: Likely to find this trip a bit of a “sprint” against specialists. He fits the age profile but lacks the tactical speed seen in previous winners like Allaho or Un De Sceaux.
Trend Score: 3/10

Final Selection Summary

1. Fact To File (The standout trend and statistical selection)
2. Impaire Et Passe (The “Mullins” alternative)
3. Jonbon (The class play, despite age concerns)
4. Banbridge (The ground specialist)

The going is currently Good to Soft. This race is on the New Course, which places an extreme premium on stamina and the ability to jump fluently while under pressure on the final climb.

The 12-Year Trends: Stayers’ Hurdle

Age: 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7. Younger legs have historically outstayed the veterans.
Recent Form: 10 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 2 on their previous start.
Class: 11 of the last 12 winners had an Official Rating of 156 or higher.
Festival Pedigree: 10 of the last 12 had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival, with 8 having won or placed.
Betting: 8 of the last 10 winners were 12/1 or shorter in the betting.
Stayers’ Prep: The Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle and the Cleeve Hurdle remain the primary feeder races.

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. Teahupoo (Age: 9 | NR: 168.4)

The Verdict: The 2024 winner and 2025 runner-up is the ultimate professional in this division. Despite being 9, he defies the age trend through sheer consistency. He comfortably beat Bob Olinger at Leopardstown in December and arrives fresh. He ticks the class (OR 163+), ground, and recent form boxes perfectly.
Trend Score: 9/10 (Age is the only minor negative).

2. Honesty Policy (Age: 6 | NR: 156.0)

The Verdict: The “trend pick” of the race. At age 6, he represents the profile of the classic improving stayer. He was a close third to Impose Toi at Ascot but has significant room for improvement over 3 miles. Being trained by Gordon Elliott adds further weight, given his recent record in the race.
Trend Score: 10/10

3. Kabral Du Mathan (Age: 6 | NR: 154.2)

The Verdict: An incredibly progressive type for Dan Skelton. He won the Relkeel Hurdle here on New Year’s Day with ease. While his rating (154) is just below the typical 156+ threshold, his “unexposed” nature makes him a dangerous contender. He meets the age and recent win trends.
Trend Score: 9/10

4. Bob Olinger (Age: 11 | NR: 163.0)

The Verdict: The defending champion. He is a Cheltenham legend with four wins at the track. However, at 11, he is trying to defy a massive historical trend; only two horses aged 10+ have won since 1986 (Sire Du Berlais and himself last year). His form is still top-tier, but the younger Elliott-trained pair may have more “toe” at the finish.
Trend Score: 7/10

5. Ma Shantou (Age: 7 | NR: 154.0)

The Verdict: The winner of the Cleeve Hurdle over this course and distance. Winning the Cleeve is a massive trend positive (8 of the last 19 winners ran in it). He thrives on the New Course and is exactly the right age (7) to peak in this race.
Trend Score: 8/10

6. Impose Toi (Age: 8 | NR: 159.0)

The Verdict: Winner of the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot. He has the class (OR 159) and the stamina, but he was soundly beaten by Ma Shantou in the Cleeve Hurdle on softer ground. If the ground continues to dry toward “Good,” his chances increase significantly.
Trend Score: 7/10

7. Ballyburn (Age: 8 | NR: 160.0)

The Verdict: A fascinating addition for Willie Mullins. A former Baring Bingham winner who returns to hurdles after a mixed chasing campaign. While he has the class, he lacks a recent win (3rd last time out) and hasn’t yet proven he is a “grinding” 3-mile stayer at the highest level.
Trend Score: 6/10

8. Home By The Lee (Age: 11 | NR: 159.0)

The Verdict: A stalwart of the division who won at Gowran Park recently. However, he is aged 11 and has failed to win this in four previous attempts. He is a solid each-way player but unlikely to improve enough to beat the principles.
Trend Score: 5/10

Final Selection Summary

1. Teahupoo (The Class Master)
2. Honesty Policy (The Improving Youngster)
3. Kabral Du Mathan (The Progressive Threat)
4. Ma Shantou (The Course Specialist)

The going is Good to Soft, which on the New Course usually requires a horse with a blend of high-end cruising speed and proven stamina over the 2 miles and 4 furlongs trip.

The 12-Year Trends: Golden Miller Novices’ Chase

Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7.
Grade 1 Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had already run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase.
Rating: 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 146 or higher (Official Rating).
Course Form: 8 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham.
Season Form: 9 of the last 12 winners won on their last start before the Festival.
Jumping: Efficiency is key; 11 of the last 12 winners had no more than 4 starts over fences (the “unexposed” factor).

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. Sixmilebridge (NR: 166.7)

The Verdict: He is the “perfect” trend horse for 2026. Aged 7, he sits exactly in the preferred age bracket. His Neural Rating of 166.7 is significantly clear of the field, suggesting he is a Grade 1 horse running in a Limited Handicap. He has the required “unexposed” profile with only 3 chase starts and won emphatically last time out.
Trend Score: 10/10

2. The Bluesman (NR: 111.0)

The Verdict: A classic “Skelton” type improver. While his NR is lower than the top selection, he meets the criteria for having won his last start and possessing a rating that puts him in the high 140s/low 150s bracket. He handles Good to Soft ground and has the high jumping index (7.0) needed for the New Course.
Trend Score: 9/10

3. Stencil (NR: 83.7)

The Verdict: A highly consistent novice who has run in Graded company this season. He fits the trend for having a previous run at Cheltenham (Course Factor: 13). His NR of 83.7 is solid for this grade, though he may find the top two a little too well-handicapped.
Trend Score: 8/10

4. Western Knight (NR: 82.8)

The Verdict: He meets the age trend (7) and the season-form trend. His speed figures suggest he is best suited to 2 miles 4 furlongs on Good to Soft. He is a very efficient jumper (Jump Factor: 9), which is vital for maintaining position during the middle part of this race.
Trend Score: 8/10

5. Gold Dancer (NR: 78.3)

The Verdict: Trained by Willie Mullins, which is always a trend positive. However, his NR of 78.3 suggests he has a bit to find with the likes of Sixmilebridge. He is slightly more exposed than the typical winner of this race but cannot be discounted for a place.
Trend Score: 7/10

6. Jordans Cross (NR: 76.3)

The Verdict: A solid 6-year-old who fits the age profile. He is a strong traveller but the trends suggest that winners of this race usually possess a slightly higher “Class” (CP) factor than he currently shows.
Trend Score: 6/10

7. Slade Steel (NR: 75.0)

The Verdict: Winner of the Supreme in 2024, but his transition to fences has seen his rating stabilize rather than soar. While he has the “Cheltenham Factor,” the last 12 years suggest that horses who have become slightly “exposed” over fences find it harder to win this.
Trend Score: 5/10

8. Regent’s Stroll (NR: 71.8)

The Verdict: A promising type but his NR of 71.8 indicates he may be a year away from his peak for this specific championship race. He lacks the Grade 1/2 experience that 10 of the last 12 winners possessed.
Trend Score: 4/10

Final Selection Summary

1. Sixmilebridge (Clear Class & Trend Standout)
2. The Bluesman (The Improving Danger)
3. Stencil (The Course Specialist)
4. Western Knight (The Jumping Efficiency Play)

The going is Good to Soft, which is standard for this race and typically allows the cream of the Irish mares to use their superior cruising speeds.

The 12-Year Trends: Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Irish Dominance: Irish-trained runners have won 9 of the 10 renewals (90%).
The Mullins Factor: Willie Mullins has won 5 of the 10 renewals.
Freshness: 9 of the 10 winners had a break of at least 26 days prior to the festival.
Class: 8 of the last 10 winners had won a race worth at least £5,000 to the winner.
Market Position: 8 of the 10 winners were in the top four of the betting.
Season Form: All winners had won at least once earlier in the season.

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. Oldschool Outlaw (NR: 164.2)

The Verdict: Boasting the highest Neural Rating in the field by a significant margin, she fits the “class” trend perfectly. Her rating of 164.2 suggests she is a Grade 1 mare in a Grade 2 race. Being Irish-trained and arriving here on the back of a dominant season, she ticks every major trend box, particularly the requirement for high-value previous wins.
Trend Score: 10/10

2. Bambino Fever (NR: 140.8)

The Verdict: Another strong Irish contender who meets the age and season-form requirements. Her NR of 140.8 marks her as the primary danger to the favourite. She has shown she handles Good to Soft ground and has the tactical speed required for the “Dawn Run” course.
Trend Score: 9/10

3. Kingston Queen (NR: 87.3)

The Verdict: A solid performer who fits the profile of a typical Mullins/Irish improver. While her NR is lower than the top two, her “Course Factor” and “Timing” stats are high. She arrives fresh, which is a key trend for this race.
Trend Score: 8/10

4. Diamond Du Berlais (NR: 83.7)

The Verdict: Represents a slightly more “exposed” profile but remains a high-class novice. Her speed figures on Good to Soft ground are competitive. She fits the trend of winners having had exactly 2 or 3 runs over hurdles prior to arriving at Cheltenham.
Trend Score: 7/10

5. White Noise (NR: 83.2)

The Verdict: A progressive type who has seen significant market support. Her NR is almost identical to Diamond Du Berlais, but she gains the edge in “Distance” stats. She is a strong stayer at 2 miles, which is vital for the climb to the finish.
Trend Score: 7/10

6. La Conquiere (NR: 78.7)

The Verdict: While she has the “French-bred” profile that often does well in this race, her NR suggests she may lack the raw gear-change of the top three. She is a reliable jumper but likely an each-way prospect at best.
Trend Score: 6/10

7. Place De La Nation (NR: 73.0)

The Verdict: A middle-tier rating. She hasn’t quite reached the Grade 2 level in her previous starts, and trends suggest you need to be a “graded horse in waiting” to win this.
Trend Score: 5/10

8. Blue Velvet (NR: 65.7)

The Verdict: Despite a reasonable rating, she fails the “Top 4 in the betting” trend. Historically, winners of this race are very well-found in the market.
Trend Score: 4/10

Final Selection Summary

1. Oldschool Outlaw (The Statistical Standout)
2. Bambino Fever (The Main Danger)
3. Kingston Queen (The Freshness Play)
4. Diamond Du Berlais (The Consistent Novice)