By the time Martinez set down his gelding at the eighth pole, Boys and Bullets was gathering momentum, but still five lengths behind the frontrunner.

As the line loomed, the pack tightened. With a hustling hand ride Martinez gunned for an inside split, then deftly readjusted his aim for a better hole between rivals to the outside.

Boys and Bullets burst through to head-bob with the leader in the final strides, and Martinez kept driving hard through the finish. It was only a few jumps later that the rookie rider gave a jubilant fist pump because he knew he had earned his first official winner as a licensed professional.

Or had he? On the gallop-out, doubts crept in. Returning to unsaddle, Martinez became even less sure, because none of the other riders were saying anything one way or the other.

Then he saw his number glowing on the infield tote board. Boys and Bullets had won by a head. After coming close with six seconds and seven thirds from 29 mounts since his Mar. 5 debut, Martinez was a maiden no more.

“My heart screamed inside of me, I was so happy,” Martinez told TDN. “I was like, 'Wow, I can't believe I got it done on a long shot-the one that you least expect.'”

You've seen the congratulatory rite-of-passage “baptism” that accompanies an apprentice jockey's first win in North America: A gleeful mob of riders and valets douse the grinning newbie with water, shaving cream, boot polish, toothpaste, shampoo, eggs, and whatever other gooey substances can be found in the jocks' room or kitchen.

Martinez's celebratory bath was no different. But his backstory certainly is.

For starters, he's 30 years old and has only been riding horses for 3 1/2 years despite having spent a childhood in a family of racetrackers on the now-defunct New England circuit. In addition, as a teenager, Martinez drifted away from the sport-and for a brief while, his family. He reconnected with both after figuring out, in his words, “that horses really do bring people together.”

“In Boston, I grew up in the 'hood,” Martinez said. “I come from poverty, so it feels nice to, like, be someone now in life. And if feels good to know that my parents are really, really happy for me, and my family supports me in everything I do. I thought I was lost at 20 years old.”

'You're going to be a jockey…'

Martinez's father, also named Francisco, has worked for decades in the stable of trainer Mike Aro. When Aro was based primarily at Rockingham Park and Suffolk Downs, the younger Martinez recalls that he and his two younger brothers were always welcome under the shed row, where they got acquainted with racehorses from infancy.

In the early 2000s, the Martinez boys carried their equine enthusiasm home, where they were fond of watching the nightly televised Suffolk replay show while “riding” the arms of the couch with their dad's leather belts strapped to the furniture as reins.

Those pretend stretch battles did not exactly thrill their mother, Maria Rodriguez.

“My Mom would be like, 'What are you guys breaking down the couch for?'” Martinez reminisced. “And I would say, 'We're learning. We're riding.”

Martinez was allowed to do some hotwalking in the summers before he got out of grade school, and he gained a reputation for being able to handle difficult horses, even as a child.

“Especially the crazy ones. I used to get along with them really good,” Martinez said with pride.

He occasionally would be permitted to get up on horseback, but not beyond the shed row.

Martinez vividly recalls one of Aro's primary jockeys at the time, Michel Lapensee, giving him early encouragement.

“Mike Lapensee once threw his helmet and vest on me and put me up on a horse in Mikey Aro's barn and said, 'You're going to be a jockey when you grow up,'” Martinez recalled.

Decades later, that prediction resonates with poignancy: Lapensee died at age 58 in 2005 after a fall during a race at Suffolk.

But as Martinez grew into his teenage years, his interest in racing became eclipsed by a passion for soccer. He got recruited to play for a statewide team in Massachusetts.

At roughly the same time though, his father decided to follow a job offer to Parx when the Aro outfit relocated to Pennsylvania. This was a few years after Rockingham ceased Thoroughbred racing in 2002 and more than a decade before Suffolk would close in 2019.

“It was just me, my mom, and my two brothers back home,” Martinez said. “Then I broke my three last toes on my right foot, and I just couldn't get back into soccer shape. Every time I tried to run, I couldn't run. I'd fall or trip or something because I had no feeling there yet. And I kind of got mad and got away from it. Then I started hanging around the streets a lot. I got distant from everybody. I dropped out of school.”

Martinez has an uncle, Ruben Rodriguez, who had worked for standings-topping New England trainer Charlie Assimakopoulos. But Rodriguez left the backstretch life to take on construction work when that outfit also relocated as the New England circuit dissolved. Seeing that his nephew was in danger of going adrift, Rodriguez got him a job as a construction laborer in Boston. But Martinez didn't really relish the work and had a nagging feeling something was missing.

His dad phoned one day. “What are you going to do with your life?” he asked his son point-blank.

“Honestly, I was going to call you to come back to the horses,” Martinez told his father. “Because that's all I've known since I was little.”

So Martinez followed his father to Pennsylvania. Eventually, his younger brothers took jobs at Parx as well. Luis, the middle sibling, is now an assistant for Ron Dandy, another transplanted New England trainer. Juan, the youngest, is an exercise rider.

Asked approximately when he made that move to Parx, Martinez rattles off the exact date: Dec. 15, 2012.

“I remember it because it was the best thing I ever did in my life,” Martinez said.

'Never too late to start'

Aro took him on as a hotwalker, but Martinez had lost some muscle memory for the job after being away from horses for a decade.

“I had to basically learn everything again,” Martinez explained. “Because from 10 years old to 19 years old, I hadn't done anything with horses. I hadn't been around them. But I always had a really good connection with them.”

Later in the 2010s, Martinez worked as a groom for trainer Scott Lake. In the summer of 2020, he learned that he and his high school sweetheart were going to become the parents of a baby girl, and this got him thinking about trying to get a better-paying racetrack job.

Juan kept pestering his brother to get on horseback and get licensed. One day Martinez accompanied Juan to a local farm where he exercised horses. The farm's trainer had heard that the older Martinez brother wanted to give riding a shot, so he handed Martinez a helmet and gave him a leg up on a massive Quarter Horse nicknamed Gorilla because of his size and strength.

“At that farm, it takes four rounds to jog a mile,” Martinez said. “By the third round my hands were asleep, and I thought he was going to run off with me. But when I laid back, he relaxed. And the more I did that, the more he got along with me.”

The trainer told him no other rider had ever had such kinship with Gorilla.

“What I like about you was you didn't panic, you didn't get scared, you stayed on the horse so he could do his job,” Martinez said the farm's trainer told him.

Back at Parx, Martinez's father had acquired three of his own horses that he cared for in addition to his work for Aro. Although initially reluctant to let his son get licensed and jog them, he relented. At age 27, after a lifetime at the races, Martinez took his first twirl around the track on horseback.

Soon after, someone from John Servis's barn approached Martinez, complimented his style, and asked who he worked for. Martinez said he only got aboard his dad's three horses. The Servis outfit was looking for a galloper, but would let him start learning that skill by jogging. It was a Thursday-could he start on Monday?

“I can start today if you need me,” Martinez beamed by way of reply.

Martinez credits Servis with teaching him to gallop and breeze horses the right way for the last 3 1/2 years.

“I turned into his main two-minute-licker,” Martinez said. “I hit every exact second that he asked me. He'd test me-1:56, 1:58-and I'd hit them. He told me, 'Kid, you've got a clock in your head.'”

Francisco Martinez receives the “initiation” celebration after capturing his first career win | EQUI-PHOTO.

It was also Servis who nominated Martinez to ride in the Amateur Riders Club of America series at Delaware and Laurel. Those are pari-mutuel races in which riders are allowed to tack higher weights well into the 130-plus pound range.

Martinez won the very first amateur race he attempted, on Oct. 6, 2022, at Delaware aboard Boffo Kid (Friesan Fire), who won by a neck with a furious late drive in an off-the-turf route.

“I was just so happy to be in the race that I forgot to put on my goggles,” Martinez said with a laugh. “I was just getting hit with dirt, dirt, dirt. At the three-quarters pole I said, “Should I bring my goggles down?' And I was like, 'Nah, I gallop like this every morning. I'll just leave them off.”

He competed in that series through 2023, winning two of seven races over two years. The amateur jockeys do not get awarded any purse money, and although Equibase lists the wins on their lifetime records, the victories don't count against an apprenticeship if a rider does turn pro.

At Parx, Martinez also got a taste of true horsepower during that time. When trainer Bob Baffert shipped Reincarnate (Good Magic) and Adare Manor (Uncle Mo) to run in a pair of Grade I stakes there, Servis recommended Martinez to get on them in the mornings.

As 2024 neared, Martinez knew it was now or never for taking his shot at being a jockey. Friends in the Parx riding colony were asking him what he was waiting for. His main concerns were getting his weight down from 118 to 110 without resorting to unhealthy measures, and dealing with the loss of steady income from exercising horses. As a jockey, he would still be getting aboard horses in the mornings, only now he'd have to do it for free in exchange for the never-certain prospect of getting mounts on them in the afternoons.

When Martinez told Servis what he was planning to do, the trainer further complicated the decision by saying he had just been about to offer Martinez an assistant's job.

“I told John, 'I want to try this, because if I don't do it, I'm going to regret it,'” Martinez said.

Martinez cut down his weight via diet and intense gym sessions, and February was supposed to be his target to start riding in races. Then his brother Juan broke five ribs in a training accident when his saddle slipped sideways trying to pull up a rank horse, and Martinez delayed his debut.

“He got stuck next to the rail,” Martinez said. “But Juan says the rail saved his life, because if not, that horse would have been dragging him on the ground.”

Martinez finally rode in his first race six weeks ago. He was 11th and last and didn't hit the board for a week, but was not deterred.

When Martinez hit the winner's circle Apr. 10, it unlocked more opportunities. After initially hustling his own mounts without an agent, Martinez has since teamed with Richard Englander, who has him booked on 18 mounts at Parx this Monday through Wednesday, plus two more at Aqueduct on Thursday.

“I'd been wanting to do this since I was little, but I never got the chance,” Martinez said. “And now that I'm doing it, I want to get everything out that I always wanted to get out. Every time I ride I try to give my all. It doesn't matter if the horse is a long shot, what the odds are. If I get along with the horse, I'm at peace with my heart.”

Although Martinez said he has accepted some good-natured ribbing about being a rookie at age 30, he replies pensively when asked what his advice would be to others looking to fulfill a difficult dream later in life.

“It's never too late to start,” Martinez said. “God is always, always open to anybody, and He will push you if you talk to Him. That's one thing that I have learned and believe in. And I believe that thanks to Him, I'm on the right track now.”

The post Week In Review: A 30-Year-Old Bugboy’s First Win: ‘The One You Least Expect’ appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The annual Claiming Crown races were two weeks ago. But a surprise black-type feast for blue-collar campaigners took place over Thanksgiving weekend, when horses once claimed for tags as low as $10,000 and $16,000 ran away with three of five stakes at Laurel Park, and an 8-year-old gelding bought last year for $10,000 topped a blanket-finish trifecta of previously claimed sprinters in the GIII Fall Highweight H. at Aqueduct.

The relic known as the Fall Highweight–in which nominees are assigned weights scaled several notches above today's norms–is very much a throwback concept. So it was only fitting that the 109th edition of this six-furlong sprint was won by an old-school, powerhouse grinder under a 130-pound impost.

Greeley and Ben (Greeley's Conquest), who tied for second-winningest horse in North America in 2021 with 11 trips to the winner's circle, scored his seventh win this season Nov. 26. That runs his lifetime record to a hefty 23-7-2 from 39 starts.

This earner of $882,698 has been an overachiever since the outset. Written off at 94-1 odds in his Oct. 15, 2016 debut at Keeneland, Greeley and Ben just missed, running second, beaten a head.

Proving the effort was no fluke, he won start number two, and even though he didn't progress to stakes as a juvenile or sophomore, he kept company at allowance levels against contemporaries who eventually ran in the 2017 GI Kentucky Debry and future editions of the Breeders' Cup.

Although Greeley and Ben was a six-time winner by the start of 2021, there were no takers the first two times the strapping bay showed up for a $10,000 tag at Oaklawn Park. This was likely because of the gelding's precipitous drop out of a $32,000 claiming win at Churchill Downs. Was the downward plunge in class by then-trainer John Ortiz a red flag or a bluff?

Trainer Karl Broberg was willing to gamble $10,000 to find out, and when he dropped a slip on behalf of his own outfit (End Zone Athletics) the third time Greeley and Ben was entered at that level (after previously winning and running second), he had no idea the gelding would blossom into a three-time stakes winner for him, bankrolling roughly 45 times that initial claiming investment in purses at Oaklawn, Prairie Meadows, Remington Park, Delta Downs, Fair Grounds, and Sam Houston.

Broberg's stunning run with Greeley and Ben would last until Apr. 24, 2022, when he dropped the gelding from Grade III sprint company into a $62,500 optional-claimer at Oaklawn. Pounded to 2-5 favoritism, Greeley and Ben won again that afternoon at Oaklawn, but was claimed by trainer Melton Wilson.

After running second and fourth in stakes this past spring and summer at Monmouth and Delaware for trainer Bonnie Lucas, Greeley and Ben was auctioned for $80,000 at July's Fasig-Tipton sale for horses of racing age.

The gelding spent time in the barns of David Jacobson and Jeffrey Englehart through the fall, and while Greeley and Ben had to get used to new surroundings every few weeks, his output remained consistent: Claimed for $40,000 out of a win at Saratoga Sept. 4, he then ran second while not entered for a tag in an optional $55,000 claimer at Laurel Oct. 8.

It is the last four weeks, though, that are emblematic of what Greeley and Ben is all about. On Oct. 29, he finished a very credible fourth–beaten only three-quarters of a length at 20-1 odds–in the GIII Bold Ruler S. at Aqueduct, coming off Lasix (as required in New York stakes races) for the first time in his career after making all previous 36 starts on it.

Twelve days later, on Nov. 10, Greeley and Ben got wheeled back in a $10,000 starter allowance, also at Aqueduct, and won as the crushing 1.5-to-10 fave.

Then on Saturday, firing back in 16 days, the gelding was more or less dismissed by bettors at 7-1 odds in the Fall Highweight. Jockey Manny Franco patiently saved ground at the fence, and when Greeley and Ben cut the corner for home, he was full of run.

The competition counter-punched, though, and Greeley and Ben tenaciously had to reclaim the lead not once, but twice in deep stretch after getting headed. He prevailed by a neck in a furious photo finish with the two favorites right behind him, separated by head bobs. The 98 Beyer Speed Figure for the no-Lasix stakes score represented a career best for the 8-year-old.

Darryl Abramowitz owns Greeley and Ben, and the Fall Highweight was the first graded stakes victory for New Jersey-based conditioner Faith Wilson, who has only been a licensed trainer for 18 months.

Meanwhile, in Maryland…

Friday's 5 3/4-length trouncing of the $75,000 Politely S. for Maryland-breds at Laurel was administered by another on-the-rise claimer once bought for $10,000.

Fille d'Esprit (Great Notion) is now 12-for-23 lifetime, and has won five stakes so far in 2022, including open-company races while winning her division of the MATCH series and the $100,000 Maryland Million Distaff. Since that Aug. 21, 2020, claim, the 6-year-old mare has been trained by John Robb and owned by the partnership of C J I Phoenix Group and No Guts No Glory Farm.

Saturday at Laurel featured three open-company stakes for $100,000, and two them were won by relative bargains at the claim box.

Swayin to and Fro (Straight Talking) captured the Safely Kept S. by 3 1/4 lengths at 6-1 odds for Baxter Racing Stable and trainer Mario Serey, Jr. The win came exactly six months to the date of that outfit claiming the 3-year-old filly for $16,000 out of an 8 1/4-length maiden romp. Including the win on the day she was claimed, Swayin to and Fro is now 6-for-10 on the year, with two stakes victories.

Armando R (Blame) was another runner you could have bought out of a winning effort for $16,000, which is exactly what current owner Ronald E. Cuneo and trainer Damon Dilodovico did a year ago, on Nov. 28, 2021. This 6-year-old gelding has since won through his '2x' allowance condition, and in the span of the past 60 days has won two hundred-grand listed stakes at Laurel, the off-grass Japan Turf Cup S. at 10 furlongs in the slop Oct. 1, and the Richard Small S. over nine furlongs on fast dirt Nov. 26.

Six for the road…

News quiz: Can you name the jockey who won six races in one day of racing over the holiday weekend? In case you need a hint, his last name contains only four letters and ends in a Z.

If you guessed the mid-Atlantic based Angel Cruz, you are correct.

But Cruz is probably not the first jockey you thought of. You'd also be correct if you guessed Luis Saez, whose six wins at Churchill Downs on Saturday rocketed him to the top of the meet standings there and to the top of the national news cycle.

No disrespect to the world-class Saez, but Cruz rarely gets much ink in the press, which is why we're highlighting him here.

Plus, Cruz's feat was a little more unique because he had to hit the road to earn his six-pack.

On Friday afternoon, Cruz, who is currently second in the Laurel standings, won the $75,000 Howard and Sondra Bender Memorial S. aboard Maryland-bred Alwaysinahurry (Great Notion).

Cruz then commuted roughly 90 minutes west to ride under the lights at Charles Town Races, where he swept races two through six (and barely lost the eighth race, running second with his only other mount of the night).

Serving up a fitting moniker for a horse who just completed a six-pack, the name of Cruz's final winner Friday was Always Drinking (Speightster).

Monday walk in the 'Park'

It wouldn't seem right to complete a column about the upward mobility of lower-level claimers without getting in a mention about Beverly Park (Munnings), the continent's winningest horse so far in 2022. The 5-year-old will be aiming for win No. 13 in his 28th start of the year Monday when he goes up against starter-allowance company in the sixth race at Mahoning Valley.

That Nov. 28 race is restricted to horses who have started for a claiming tag of $8,000 or less over the past two calendar years. Beverly Park won a N2L $5,000 claimer by 15 lengths at Belterra Park back on July 8, 2021. Next time out, he was claimed for $12,500 by his current owner/trainer, Norman Lynn Cash, whose horses race under the name Built Wright Stables.

Beverly Park has not started for a tag since being claimed, feasting exclusively on starter allowances, optional claimers in which he was not entered for a tag, and in the $100,000 Ready's Rocket Express on the Claiming Crown card two weekends ago.

In the span between Cash's claiming him and a second-place finish at Charles Town Nov. 19, Beverly Park is 19-for-35 with $453,688 in purse earnings (roughly 36 times that original $12,500 claim investment). His lifetime record stands at 22-7-4 from 44 starts.

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Even on a day when he merely worked out, Flightline (Tapit) was front-page news after his early morning breeze Saturday at Santa Anita. That's how much he has captivated the sport; it's the reason why everyone is so hopeful that his career does not end after the GI Breeders' Cup Classic and that his owners can resist immediately cashing in on the hundreds of millions he will make at stud.

The group has collectively said that no decision will be made until after the Breeders' Cup while hinting that they are leaning toward running him next year. One owner, Kosta Hronis, said there is a “great possibility” that Flightline will race as a 5-year-old. Co-owner Bill Farish, who will eventually manage his stud career at Lane's End, said “we are all racing fans and we all want to do what is good for the sport,” which makes it sound like he would have no problem with Flightline racing next year.

Most people see it this way, that the decision comes down to “doing what is good for the sport” versus cashing in, indeed a tough choice.

That said, “the good for the game” reasoning is somewhat weak. Flightline did not run in the Triple Crown races and the mainstream media all but ignores racing unless there is a juicy controversy. For those reasons, he is largely unknown outside of racing circles, making it very difficult for him to attract new fans to the sport. While one more year would thrill existing fans, a Flightline campaign in 2023 would do little to increase handle or raise racing's profile.

But there's another factor to consider, and it's a big one. What price do you put on the priceless? What price do you put on the thrills, the excitement, the glory and everything else that comes with owning a once-in-a-lifetime horse, the type of horse none of these owners, no matter how lucky they might be, will ever have again? And whatever that price is, is it worth more than the money to be made from Flightline's first year at stud?

I don't think that the decision to bring Flightline back will come down to the money to be made at stud or doing what's right by the sport. If they bring him back, it will be because the owners can't let go of the thrills and they want to come back for more.

“All the owners love racing,” Farish said. “There's nothing more fun than what happened at Del Mar the other day in the Pacific Classic. Everybody is a fan at heart.”

Exactly.

The owners are Farish, Hronis, Anthony Manganaro, Jane Lyon and Terry Finley and his partners at West Point Thoroughbreds. I can't imagine that any of them need the money, a new boat or a private jet. Yes, they are in the business to make money, but neither would they be in racing if they didn't love the sport.

Before Flightline came around their goals were no doubt pretty much the same as everyone else's who race and breed horses. They wanted to be involved with good horses, win major races and then develop them as sires or broodmares. That's the formula and, normally, the decision to keep racing or retire a horse isn't that difficult. All five owners play the game at the highest level and are always capable of coming up with another very good horse to replace the very good horse they just retired.

But this is different. The Flightline 5 will never have another Flightline because this is a horse that has extended the boundaries of what we all thought was possible. He wins the GI Pacific Classic by 19 1/4 lengths and it looks like he isn't even trying. He's never been tested or challenged. He's yet to have a race where he didn't dominate the competition. He will be going against some exceptional horses in the Classic, but will be such an overwhelming favorite that the oddsmakers have pegged him at 3-5 in their morning lines. Every time he runs, you're expecting him to do something you used to think was beyond expectations.

The rest of us can only imagine what it must be like to own this horse. He is the horse all five owners have dreamt of since getting in the business, the horse they have worked their lifetimes for, but the horse they never possibly thought would come their way. Yet, the owners have enjoyed the experience only five times and it will be only six if he retires after the Breeders' Cup. How can they not want more or let go so easily?

Whether or not Flightline runs at five, the owners will still make boatloads of money when he does go off to stud. Why not have your cake and eat it too? This story is too good to end in less than two weeks at the Breeders' Cup. Bring him back next year and do it because there are things in life more valuable than money.

No Stakes at Santa Anita

Bundling major stakes races on one day is all the rage. Where top stakes races used to be spread throughout a track's dates, now many of them wind up being run on the same day. And the formula is working. These super-cards attract the bettors and the handles are significantly higher than on a normal Saturday.

This Saturday, Santa Anita will offer seven stakes races. On the surface, it's a smart move. The Saturday before the Breeders' Cup is normally a quiet one and what will be a standout card at Santa Anita will grab the attention of the wagering public.

But there's already been a price to pay.

There were no stakes on last Saturday's card at Santa Anita, which is something that never happens. There wasn't even an allowance race on the nine-race card. It didn't feel like a Saturday at the “Great Race Place.” It was more like a quiet Thursday afternoon. It's not just Santa Anita. There have been plenty of cards at major tracks where there was nothing special on a humdrum menu.

Big-event days are here to stay and that's not a bad thing. But couldn't Santa Anita have taken just one of the seven stakes slated for Saturday and run it a week earlier? The card sure could have used it.

The post Bringing Back Flightline at Five and Why It Makes Sense appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Reflections on an interesting weekend of racing:

(*) No, Rich Strike did not win the GII Lukas Classic S. at Churchill Downs. A very game Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) had a second surge and came back just before the wire to nip him by a head. But not only was there no shame in losing, this was the best race of Rich Strike's career-better, yes, the GI Kentucky Derby-and finally put to rest that he was a one-race wonder who just got lucky on the first Saturday in May.

There was plenty of reason to doubt this horse after the Derby. He was 80-1, probably should have been even higher, and benefitted from a massive pace meltdown and a perfect trip under the unheralded rider Sonny Leon. It looked like a fluke and even more so when he never threatened in the GI Belmont S. and finished sixth, beaten 13 1/4 lengths.

He came back in the GI Travers S. and certainly didn't embarrass himself, running fourth behind the immensely talented divisional leader Epicenter (Not This Time). But fourth is not first and he lost by 5 ½ lengths.

Trainer Eric Reed then made the decision to skip the GI Pennsylvania Derby and take on older horses in the Lukas Classic. He didn't exactly find an easy spot. With Hod Rod Charlie, Happy Saver (Super Saver) and Art Collector (Bernardini), the race was loaded. Considering the quality of the field and that the race was for 3-year-olds and up, you can make the argument that the race was a tougher assignment than the Derby. And he ran his heart out, losing to an accomplished and tenacious Grade I winning 4-year-old who has bankrolled more than $5.5 million.

“He hooked the toughest horses he has ever ran against and ran on the outside the whole way,” Reed said after the race. “Look how far he has come since May. I can only imagine what it's going to be like next year.”

Good point: this colt is obviously improving and should be an outstanding 4-year-old.

It's also worth noting that he was much closer to the pace than normal in the race Saturday at Churchill. He was never further back than fourth and never more than 2 ½ lengths off the lead. That should serve him well as trying to win races from 15 lengths off the pace is never an easy way to go.

Reed hasn't said yet if Rich Strike will go next in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic. The other option is the GI Clark S. on Nov. 25. Considering the depth of the Classic and the presence of a certain horse named Flightline (Tapit) and Rich Strike's affinity for the Churchill surface the Clark looks like the better option. Either way, it looks like he will show up and be competitive. He's not Flightline, he may not be Epicenter, but he is what he is–a very good horse and a deserving winner of the Kentucky Derby.

(*) The Lukas Classic was not without controversy. Aboard Rich Strike, Sonny Leon appeared to be leaning into Tyler Gaffalione on Hot Rod Charlie and elbowing him as the two horses neared the wire. Retired jockey and TV analyst Richard Migliore took to Twitter to criticize Leon and claim that his actions cost Rich Strike the race.

“After watching the Lukas classic numerous times @SONNYLEON1 cost Rich Strike the win by pulling him over to Hot Rod Charlie and putting his elbow into @Tyler_Gaff instead of going forward and driving to the wire,” he tweeted. “When does this BS stop? It's horse racing not jockey racing. Enough.”

NYRA linemaker David Aragona also had his say on Twitter.”As much as I'd like to praise how well Rich Strike ran today, this is pretty bad stuff from the jock,” he wrote. “Obviously crossing a line. A suspension is warranted for these kind of shenanigans.

Others on Twitter were kinder, arguing that Leon's saddle slipped and that was what caused him to lean into Gaffalione, which, the head-on replay shows, he clearly did.

(*) Maybe the GI Woodward S. was nothing more than a paid public workout for Life Is Good (Into Mischief) and all he needed to do was get around the racetrack. He did in fact het the job done. But with his reputation and his odds of 1-20 weren't you expecting more than a 1 1/4-length win and a 97 Beyer figure? There was even a moment when it looked like eventual runner-up Law Professor (Constitution) was going to beat and post what would have been a colossal upset.Take nothing away from Life Is Good. He's won three Grade I races this year and if not for Flightline would be the favorite for the Horse of the Year title. But if he is going to be in competitive in the Classic he will need to run much better than he did Saturday.

(*) The GI Awesome Again S. was a chance to enhance Flightline's reputation, if such a thing is possible. The race included, in Country Grammer (Tonalist), Royal Ship (Brz) and Express Train (Union Rags), the horses who were second, third and fourth when Flightline turned in his electrifying performance in the GI Pacific Classic. Had that group come back with strong collective efforts in the Awesome Again it would have made Flightiline's race look even better.

It didn't happen.

The race was won by Defunded (Dialed In), who was coming of a sixth-place finish in the GII Pat O'Brien S. Country Grammer was second but was a disappointment at odds of 11-10. Express Train was fourth and Royal Ship was sixth. Neither ran well.

This doesn't mean that Flightline isn't a once-in-a-lifetime talent, but it's clear that, beyond him, the older male division in California is a weak one.

(*) Horse racing remains the only gambling game where you can cash a winning bet and feel like a chump. It happened again in the Awesome Again. When the field was loading into the gate Defunded was 8-1. The gate opened, he got out front and, lo and behold, he was 5-1 on the next flash. He paid $12.

Once again, the computer players got fat and happy at the expense of the everyday player who wagered on Defunded thinking they had bet on a horse that would pay in the neighborhood of 8-1. The winners were made to feel like losers. And the problem is not going to go away. The CAW players wager far too much money for any track to refuse their bets.

Fixed odds can't come soon enough, but it looks like industry is in no hurry to at least give them a try. Why? In fact, FanDuel is prepared to offer bets on racing on its sports betting platforms, but with pari-mutuel odds. You think the sports bettor would be OK with betting the Mets at -160 only to be told after the first pitch the odds were really -210? Of course not. It's hard to imagine a marriage of sports betting and racing working without fixed odds.

(*) Chad Brown keeps getting better and better with young dirt horses. When he won the GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct with Blazing Sevens (Good Magic), it was his second straight win in the race and his fourth overall. Blazing Seven's sire, Good Magic (Curlin), was second in the 2017 Champagne.

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Among top-tier trainers, there is no one like him. He'll run fillies against the boys, run back in a week and he's not afraid to throw a 50-1 bomb into a race or, in the case of 2022 GI Belmont S. winner Sarava (Wild Again), a 70-1 shot. It hurts his winning percentage, which is at 17% on the year. But McPeek doesn't seem to care. His job is to make money for his owners, and he understands that the more chances he gives his horses, the more money his clients are likely to make.

McPeek dipped into his bag of tracks Saturday when he entered Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) in the Caesars Belmont Derby Invitational, a decision that led to a Grade I win in a $1-million race.

The colt had shown a lot of promise early in his career and was among the top contenders for the GI Kentucky Derby after winning the GII Tampa Bay Derby. Then trained by Brian Lynch, Classic Causeway went off form and finished eleventh in the GI Florida Derby and eleventh again in the GI Kentucky Derby. The owners made a move after the Kentucky Derby and turned the horse over to McPeek. In his first start for McPeek, he ran third in the GIII Ohio Derby, a sign that maybe he was about to come around.

That might have set him up for some of the big dirt stakes coming up for 3-year-olds. Instead, McPeek targeted the Belmont Derby. Never mind that Classic Causeway would have to come back in two weeks or that he had never run on the grass. It was a $1-million race, and McPeek decided to take a shot, something few other trainers would have done with this horse.

It didn't hurt that Classic Causeway was the recipient of a lucky break. Emmanuel (More Than Ready) was not only a top contender in the race but the clear speed. But he was scratched by the stewards for reasons that remain unclear. The New York Gaming Commission tweeted the following: “The Commission Steward has ordered the scratch of Emmanuel, scheduled to run in today's Belmont Derby, due to issues relating to veterinary records. The matter remains under review.”

With Emmanuel out, Classic Causeway was the only speed in the race. Jockey Julien Leparoux picked up on that and put in a heads-up ride. Classic Causeway led by a length after a half-mile had been run in :48 and, from there, they couldn't catch him.

McPeek's aggressive handling of horses was also on display at Horseshoe Indianapolis, where he had a good showing Saturday. He got a win in the $100,000 Mari Hulman George S. with Semble Juste (Ire) (Shalaa {Ire}), who was coming back in nine days after winning an allowance at Churchill. In the GIII Indiana Oaks, he ran Runaway Wife (Gun Runner) off an eight-day layoff and Silverleaf (Speightster) off a nine-day layoff. Runaway Wife finished second and Silverleaf was third. McPeek also ran Rattle N Roll (Connect) in the GIII Indiana Derby, just a week after he won the American Derby. He finished seventh.

On Saturday, McPeek also won the GIII Iowa Oaks with Butterbean (Klimt). She was coming back in 28 days, by McPeek standards a long layoff.

The only horse he ran all day that had more than four weeks off was Tiz The Bomb (Hit It a Bomb), who was making his first start since the May Kentucky Derby in the Belmont Derby. He finished ninth.

On the day, McPeek ran horses in five different races, all of them stakes. He won two and had two others, both fillies, finish in the money and pick up black type. Among that group, everyone was running back in 28 days or less. That just doesn't happen anymore.

A Record-Breaking Belmont Meet For Chad Brown

Chad Brown winning a training title at the NYRA tracks is no longer big news, but what Brown accomplished at the Belmont meet that ended Sunday was historic.

With 153 starters, he won 47 races, setting a new record for most wins by a trainer at the Belmont spring-summer meet. The old record was 44, set by David Jacobson in 2013. But Jacobson compiled those numbers during a year in which the meet ran for 56 days. This year's meet ran for 44 days.

Twelve of Brown's winners came in graded stakes races and four were in Grade I's. He won 14 stakes overall. He won 27 turf races and 20 on the dirt. But his winning percentage on the turf was 26%, while he won with 41% of his dirt starters.

More Small Fields

They could only find five horses to run in the GII Suburban S. Saturday out at Belmont–a race that has been won by Easy Goer, Dr. Fager, Forego, Buckpasser, Kelso, Bold Ruler–and one came from the barn of the racing secretary's best friend, Uriah St. Lewis. The winner, Dynamic One (Union Rags), had never before won a graded stakes.

Between the June 11 GI Metropolitan H. and the GI Woodward S., likely to be run this year on Oct. 1, NYRA will offer five graded stakes for males on the dirt. (The other two are the GI Whitney S. and the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup). Please don't try to tell me this isn't a problem.

Juan Vazquez and the Pennsylvania Racing Commission

For years, the Pennsylvania Racing Commission seemed like a do-nothing organization run by bureaucrats who had better things to do than to truly police the sort. But it looks like that has changed.

Juan Vazquez, who has a long and troubling history of breaking the rules, shipped a horse in January from Belmont to Parx. The horse, Shining Colors (Paynter), arrived in such bad shape that she had to be euthanized due to what the stewards said was a case of severe laminitis. Vazquez was suspended for 2 1/2 years Friday, and the stewards called his actions “grossly negligent, cruel and abusive.”

This was not your typical slap on the wrist, but a penalty that fit the crime. Obviously, the racing commission has had enough of Vazquez's flouting the rules and it brought its hammer down on a trainer who should have been thrown out of the game years ago.

He is eligible to return on Jan. 26, 2025. Will someone–a racing commission, a track?–let him race at that time? One would hope that the sport can show enough backbone that Vazquez will never participate again. Just don't count on it.

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Bill says, “The problem is obvious. There aren't enough horses and there are too many stakes.” He says, “the American Graded Stakes Committee hasn't done its job.”

His solution, all too glibly proffered by one with little skin in the breeding and owning game, is to throw out iconic races like the Mother Goose, the Hollywood Gold Cup and to take the knife to the NYRA stakes schedule. Simple answer, problem solved.

Hardly!

During my 43-year career with Fasig-Tipton, I attended many grading review meetings of the American Graded Stakes Committee (AGSC). Of all the alphabet committees that the Thoroughbred industry has spawned, I have never known a group of professionals more effective, more diligent or better-prepared than these unpaid guardians of our graded stakes system.

Let's take it step-by-step. It is a simple process to take the scalpel to the number of stakes races. There is currently a minimum purse requirement of $50,000 or $75,000 for a stake to earn the “black-type,” that will appear in a Thoroughbred's pedigree. The Thoroughbred breeding industry, with the assistance of TOBA, The Jockey Club and the Society of International Thoroughbred Auctioneers, monitors this system on a day-to-day basis to ensure black-type standards are correctly maintained. That minimum is reviewed annually and, with the dramatically improved purses everywhere at maiden and allowance levels, there is justification for a school of thought to raise the minimum. However, the consequence of, let's say, doubling the minimum, would eliminate a lot of stakes races from black-type, but would, at the same time, devastate the racing programs of second-tier racetracks, who rely on the “honor” of awarding black-type to encourage owners to stay or come into the game.

Anyway, that would be a meaningful debate. By tradition, the number of graded stakes should be an acceptable percentage of the total black-type races. The Graded Stakes Committee should be considering the “pyramid” created by total of all races on the bottom, to Grade I stakes on the top. The pyramid system is acknowledged by every recognized world-wide racing authority.

In my active years, the U.S. percentage was always far the lowest of any major international racing country, albeit, truthfully, because North America has an overwhelming number of total races. Each year I read in the TDN the annual report of the AGSC, which regularly features a consistent and regrettable number of downgraded or eliminated stakes races.

If those who currently sit on the AGSC are not maintaining the standards established by their predecessors, they should be open to question from anybody who cares about the quality and diversity of racing in North America, including Bill Finley. It is a simplification to say that, because our foal crop is well under 50% of its peak, we should slash the number of graded stakes.

Bill's example of short fields in such races as the 2022 GII Mother Goose is a fixable aberration, which, if seen repeated, will result in yet another downgrading of a race which was, until recently, an integral Grade I part of the Fillies' Triple Crown.

Bill's quoting the statistics of racehorses now running less than six times per year, half of what it was 20 years ago, is not caused by an excess of stakes-races. The blame for that, if blame is the right word, is squarely on the shoulders of trainers with divisions of high-class horses who feel that their win-to-runner percentage is inviolable. We have quality racing year-round in the U.S. We should incentivize trainers to run more frequently and penalize those whose runners fill a stall year-round and only show up at the racetrack every other month at most.

Don't do what we so frequently do in every walk of life–make a knee-jerk decision that wipes out decades or even centuries of racing history. Give Bill Finley back his full fields, his exactas and trifectas and the opportunity to experience an AGSC grading meeting. Perhaps he will appreciate the hard work this group undertakes to maintain the integrity and tradition of racing in North America.

Yours respectfully,

Terence Collier

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That's not an unfamiliar scenario, and recent history tells us the most likely Belmont win threat could be among the Derby also-rans.
Since 2000, New York's “test of a champion” has been won by 10 horses who ran in Louisville then opted out of Baltimore. During that same time frame, seven horses won the Belmont after not having run in either the Derby or Preakness. We also had two Triple Crown winners (Justify in 2018 and American Pharoah in 2015), and two other horses–Afleet Alex in 2005 and Point Given in 2001–who lost the Derby, won the Preakness, then won the Belmont (the pandemic-altered 2020 Triple Crown scheduling was an anomaly that isn't counted here).

The connections of Rich Strike (Keen Ice) voluntarily held out their Derby winner from the Preakness, citing the desire to have a fresh colt for the Belmont. Yet the 80-1 hero from the first Saturday in May is unlikely to be favored on June 11.

Rich Strike's underdog appeal will undoubtedly attract supporters and a sizable rooting interest. But going from being a blue-collar, no-pressure afterthought who lucked into the Derby off the also-eligible list to being the focal point of microscopic attention in the media capital of the world will be a daunting ask for this overachieving (and sometimes ornery) former $30,000 maiden claimer.

Trainer Todd Pletcher might not have pioneered the now-prevalent “skip the Preakness” methodology. But he's certainly done his part to lend credibility to the “less is more” approach when targeting the Triple Crown's concluding leg.

The Pletcher-conditioned Tapwrit was sixth in the 2018 Derby, passed on the Preakness, then won the Belmont. Similar story for Palace Malice in 2013, except that he was 12th at Churchill. Pletcher's other Belmont winner, the filly Rags to Riches, had the same five-week spacing in 2007, except her circumstances were different, having won the GI Kentucky Oaks prior to taking on males in New York.

Using those templates as a guide, Pletcher is aiming two contenders (at least) toward the Belmont: Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), who got buried with the dreaded rail draw in the Derby, waited too long to uncork a far-turn bid, then displayed sneaky-good acceleration inside the eighth pole to finish fifth, and Nest (Curlin), the filly who won three straight stakes this past winter and spring prior to being the beaten fave (second) in a very competitive renewal of the May 6 Kentucky Oaks.

Barber Road (Race Day), a gritty stayer who was sixth in the Derby, is the only other confirmed Belmont probable among those who ran in the first leg of the Triple Crown. Creative Minster (Creative Cause), a minor-impact third in the Preakness, is also being pointed to the Belmont.

Although that list of Belmont contenders looks light at the moment, it's sure to be shored up over the next 2 1/2 weeks.
Chief among names percolating around the periphery are We the People (Constitution), winner of the May 14 GIII Peter Pan S. with a 103 Beyer Speed Figure.

Two other colts who had formerly been under Derby consideration but instead won confidence-boosters on Saturday could also be in the mix: Ethereal Road (Quality Road), who scored in the Sir Barton S. on the Preakness undercard, plus Howling Time (Not This Time), who captured an allowance/optional claimer at Churchill.

Parsing the outcome of the Preakness need not be a drawn-out affair. Armagnac (Quality Road), an 18-1 outsider, went to the lead. The jockeys aboard two other on-paper speed threats–Fenwick (Curlin) and Simplification (Not This Time)–chose not to force the issue through moderate early fractions. Jose Ortiz, knowing what he had underneath him, willingly conceded the lead with Early Voting and instead sat second, applying quiet but palpable pressure through consecutive quarters in :24.32, :23.12, :24.06 and :24.05 for the first mile of the race.

Meanwhile, at the back of the pack, it was evident by the midway point that the two favorites, Epicenter and the filly Secret Oath (Arrogate), had left themselves too much work to do. While both had endured jostling early in the race, it shouldn't have adversely affected either considering both were in the process of being rated off the pace when the bumping occurred.

Joel Rosario was first to move with a sense of urgency, sending Epicenter up the rail to tag onto the back of the first flight about a half-mile from home. Luis Saez soon mimicked the favorite's “let's hustle” move, expect he stayed widest with Secret Oath. The end result for both was more or less the same: Epicenter had to ride out the run through the far bend while pocketed with nowhere to go, then he had no true spark once he cut the corner and had a clear shot. Secret Oath once again launched into the same loop-the-group maneuver that had come up short in the GI Arkansas Derby, and she similarly petered out in the stretch.

With the favorites foundering behind him, Early Voting simply ratcheted up the torque on Armagnac, going head-and-head for the lead between the seven-sixteenths and quarter poles before cracking that rival for good. He responded to urging like a colt who knows his job, drifted only slightly under left-handed encouragement, then shifted back inward to finish up 1 1/4 comfortable lengths clear of a wheels-spinning Epicenter through a final three-sixteenths in :18.99 and a 1:54.54 clocking for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness (105 Beyer).

The only real surprise was that Early Voting had drifted up to 5.7-1 in the betting. Otherwise, the race unfolded in drama-free fashion. If you didn't know it was the Preakness, it could have been any other race at any level on any given day of the week–an overmatched speed horse gets reeled in by a stalker who gets first run, and no one else is firing through the lane.

In sum, Early Voting's measured, methodical victory was a microcosm of how the 4-for-4 colt got to the Preakness in the first place. His connections–trainer Chad Brown and owner Klaravich Stables–had taken the calculated, patient path in prep races and bypassing the Derby, and it paid off at Pimlico, just as it did five years ago when the same owner/trainer combo won the Preakness with Cloud Computing.

Racing isn't the only sport in which the metrics-driven “waiting game” has cycled into vogue. We see it in major-league baseball, where pitchers are removed from starts solely based on pitch counts, even if a no-hitter or World Series game is on the line. High-value college football recruits now routinely skip important, season-ending bowl games so as not to sully their draft status. And pro basketball teams routinely sit their stars during the regular season with the hope of having fresh bodies for the playoffs, where wins count most.

It's tough to dismiss the current over-reliance on analytics when these formulaic approaches keep producing results. And in racing, you certainly can't argue when owners and trainers opt out of potentially arduous spots citing a desire to “do what's best for the horse.”

But there is a difficult-to-define aesthetic cost to mapping out Triple Crown campaigns so conservatively and meticulously. Having already arrived at the point where getting into the Derby has devolved into a chase for qualifying points, the final two legs of the series are at risk of becoming an exercise of which connections have played the “fresh face” percentages most effectively.

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Epicenter (Not This Time) is the first horse on this year's GI Kentucky Derby trail to arrive back in the proverbial clubhouse. His afternoon work is finished for the next six weeks, and he's earned his berth in America's most important horse race in a thoroughly professional manner that checks many of the boxes on the Derby desirability list.

Epicenter's never-in-doubt dismantling of the GII Louisiana Derby field serves as a microcosm of his overall body of work: He's an adept breaker from the gate. His running style is speed-centric without a crazed need to seize the lead. He cranks out up-tempo quarter-mile splits without showing visible signs of duress. He can fight the entire length of the stretch (although he didn't need to in Saturday's even-keeled 2 1/2-length win), and he gallops out past the wire like he wants more.

You want additional attributes that suggest a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May could be within this $260,000 Keeneland September colt's grasp? Epicenter, as a January foal with six lifetime races, has an edge as one of the oldest and most seasoned sophomores. His Beyer Speed Figures have ascended in each race without any wild fluctuations that might make them seem suspect. He's won four starts, including three around two turns, one each at nine furlongs and 1 3/16 miles, and one over the Derby surface at Churchill Downs.

Epicenter's only loss within the past six months came after he forced the issue from between foes in the GIII Lecomte S., held off a wall of horses at the top of the lane, repulsed a strong bid from the all-out favorite through the length of the long Fair Grounds stretch, then got nailed the wire by a last-gasp 28-1 shot (before quickly surging back in front several jumps after the finish).

The 102 Beyer this Winchell Thoroughbreds colorbearer earned in his Louisiana Derby romp is going to get a lot of ink. But here's an even more impressive set of metrics that won't get as much attention: Of all the two-turn Derby qualifying races run in 2022, regardless of the distance, only three of them have featured internal quarter-mile splits under 25 seconds each. Epicenter orchestrated two of those performances–his Louisiana Derby and Grade II Risen Star S. wins (The other prep with all sub-25-second quarters was the GIII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream.)

Yet despite that impressive list of accomplishments, it's a likely bet Epicenter won't be favored on Derby Day.

More than any other race of the year, betting on the Derby is highly driven by headlines and easy-to-grasp media narratives. Recency bias also plays a big role, meaning the wagering public puts outsized emphasis on events that have just occurred at the expense of those farther back in the rear-view mirror.

Put another way, Derby bettors love to zero in on compelling story lines that have to do with explosive last-race wins by young colts perceived as sky's-the-limit contenders (especially if they have human connections who love to talk up their chances).

While Epicenter is a lot of things in racehorse terms, it would be a stretch to label him as “flashy.” Crank-it-out consistency is more his style, and those types of Thoroughbreds typically get overlooked because there's no wave of hype driving the wagering sentiment.

Six weeks is a small eternity in the lead-up to the Derby. As the glow of Epicenter's shining winter/spring campaign recedes, how many times between now and May 7 do you think trainer Steve Asmussen is going to have to politely address his 0-for-23 record in the Derby, the longest active drought on record? That one stat will be repeated over and over again, and even if you don't believe it's entirely relevant to Epicenter's chances, it will certainly serve to inflate his odds.

Epicenter's broad, bay shoulders must also carry the burden of the Louisiana Derby itself. Not only is the premier race in New Orleans one of the least-productive Kentucky Derby prep races in history, but it's also one that increasingly appears to be infused with weird juju.

The Louisiana Derby dates to 1894. Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby–Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924. One Louisiana Derby runner-up–Funny Cide in 2003–also scored in Louisville. But that's it. No other horse who even competed in the Louisiana Derby–regardless of where he finished–has ever crossed the finish wire first under Churchill's twin spires.

Yet now, because of oddball circumstances, the Louisiana Derby is on the verge of having two of its also-rans within the past three years recognized as Kentucky Derby winners via disqualification–Country House in 2019 (because of Maximum Security's in-race foul) and Mandaloun in 2021 (pending the still-under-appeal drug DQ of Medina Spirit).

Country House never raced again after his Derby win via DQ. Grindstone also never raced again after his Louisiana/Kentucky Derby double, and when he died last week at age 29, he was the oldest living Kentucky Derby winner.

But the career arc of Black Gold is more improbable than both of those bizarre happenstances combined.

According to legend (as recapped in Black Gold's National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame bio), a horse owner in the 1910s named Al Hoots had a deathbed vision that his 34-for-122 mare U-See-It (sometimes spelled without the hyphens) would be bred to Col. E. R. Bradley's stallion Black Toney, and that the foal would win the Kentucky Derby. The mare had been so special to Hoots that he once–armed with a shotgun–refused to hand her over after she got claimed out of a race in Juarez, Mexico.

Several years later, after Hoots died, his widow, Rosa Hoots, did indeed breed U-See-It to Black Toney. When oil was discovered a short time later on her Oklahoma property, Mrs. Hoots became wealthy overnight, and in the spirit of the fortuitous oil strike, she named the colt Black Gold. As her husband had predicted, Black Gold won the 1924 Kentucky Derby, making Rosa the first woman to breed and own a Derby winner.

Black Gold was retired to stud but was not fertile. He sired exactly one foal, a colt. It was killed by a lightning strike.

At age six, Black Gold was returned to the racetrack for an ill-fated comeback. He went 0-for-4, and in his final start at the Fair Grounds, on Jan. 18, 1928, he suffered a catastrophic injury and was buried in the track infield.

The Louisiana Derby hasn't been short on talent in recent decades. Some pretty nice winners out of that race–Risen Star, Peace Rules, Hot Rod Charlie–blossomed into Grade I victors without winning the Kentucky Derby. Asmussen himself even trained two eventual Grade I grads who won the Louisiana Derby, namely Gun Runner and Pyro.

This spring, Epicenter has a chance to rewrite the Derby map that links New Orleans and Louisville. And if you like his chances in the aftermath of his Louisiana Derby score and what he's shown us so far, just wait another month and a half for his price to ripen come Kentucky Derby day.

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Secret Oath (Arrogate)'s big winning move despite trip trouble in Saturday's GIII Honeybee S. at Oaklawn Park launched the 3-year-old filly to the forefront of conversation just at the precise time the sport needs a little diversion from anything having to do with lawsuits, trainer banishments, and the GI Kentucky Derby.

There is no question that the D. Wayne Lukas trainee looms large atop the leaderboard for the GI Kentucky Oaks and that her 86-year-old conditioner isn't crazy for at least considering running her against males next time out in the GI Arkansas Derby.

But if you want to drill down for a more precise prognostication as to where Secret Oath truly ranks in the always-intriguing fillies vs. colts debate and if she might be good enough to run in the Derby instead of the Oaks, you're going to have to come up with a measuring stick that doesn't appear to be available at the moment.

Comparing her 7 1/4-length Honeybee romp against the performance of males in the GII Rebel S. three hours later on the same Oaklawn card is a non-starter. The Rebel rates as the “chaos race” of the season so far among Derby preps because the 4-5 favorite was a no-show in an otherwise so-so field, and the slowly-run race was won by an improbable one-eyed gelding who paid $152.80.

Likening Secret Oath to Althea, the champion filly for Lukas four decades ago who also raced at Oaklawn (and beat the boys in the Arkansas Derby) should also be a no-go, at least for the time being. Obviously, Althea is from a much different generation. But even then, she was such an anomaly that her past-performance block reads like that of a racehorse from an entirely different planet when you consider how often Lukas raced her and how early in her career she lined up in the starting gate against males.

We'll have to let the next few weeks be the chief determinant in how Secret Oath's story arc plays out, knowing that whichever path Lukas sends her down, her next start is going to have a “circle the date” aura surrounding it.

Secret Oath entered the Honeybee with a 3-for-5 record, having won a Dec. 31 allowance race and the Jan. 29 Martha Washington S., both at Oaklawn, by a combined 15 1/2 lengths. She got pounded to 3-10 favoritism Saturday and appeared content to be last away in the Honeybee, given her natural running style as a stalker/closer.

Jockey Luis Contreras allowed the Briland Farm homebred to creep closer down the backstretch through opening quarters of :23.15 and :23.92, a brisk pace that seemed to be working to Secret Oath's off-the-pace advantage. But by the far turn, Contreras's patience contributed to his filly getting pocketed behind the two caving speedsters while an advancing rival to the outside kept the favorite locked and blocked, forcing Contreras to snatch up the reins in a ride-the-brakes type of maneuver.

Five sixteenths out, Contreras realized he had no choice but to dive inside of the tiring leaders. And when Secret Oath saw a glimmer of daylight through that narrow gap, she kicked on like a pro at the head of the lane. Never seriously threatened through the stretch, she won while kept to task but never fully extended.

Secret Oath's final time of 1:44.74 for 1 1/16 miles translated to a Beyer Speed Figure of 92, one point shy of her career-best effort. It's worth noting she carried five pounds more than the second- and third-place fillies.

Lukas indicated post-race that Secret Oath is nominated to both the Arkansas and Kentucky Derbies. The GIII Fantasy S. on the Apr. 2 Arkansas Derby undercard would be the conservative against-fillies option if he opts not to take on the boys.

Advocates for running in the Arkansas Derby will point out that Secret Oath's clocking and speed number trumped what was to follow six races later in the companion stakes for 3-year-old males. Oaklawn's third race in its quartet of Kentucky Derby points-earning preps is usually a pretty intriguing affair. But this year it might go down as the aberrational “Rebel without a cause,” which is why it's best to hold off on any claims that Secret Oath would have crushed that field had she been entered in that spot instead.

Rain had moved into Hot Springs by the time the feature race arrived, and although the track was still listed as “fast” for the Rebel, it would soon require sealing and a downgrade to “sloppy” for the final race. The un-California-like conditions would be eventually cited as a possible excuse for trainer Bob Baffert's ship-in fave Newgrange (Violence), who appeared primed to pounce after a trouble-free stalking trip but instead retreated to sixth.

The 75-1 Un Ojo (Laoban) saved ground every step of the way, rallied briefly at the quarter pole, then appeared to regress. But Un Ojo re-awakened late with an out-of-nowhere spurt of energy to snatch victory from the 15-1 Ethereal Road (Quality Road), who had been ambitiously entered by Lukas off a 19-1 maiden win in career start number four. The final time was 1:45.69, nearly a full second slower than Secret Oath's clocking; the Beyer (84) was also eight points lower.

Ethereal Road gave up serious real estate while hooked four wide on both turns, yet led from the quarter pole until 50 yards from the wire. He certainly punched his ticket to the Arkansas Derby, leaving Lukas to ponder over the next month whether he wants both his top filly and top colt aiming for the same race.

In the meantime, expect those comparisons to Althea to percolate–even if they're still off the mark.

Althea broke her maiden on June 22, 1983 at Hollywood Park. She ran second 17 days later in the GII Landaluce S., then wheeled back two weeks after that, beating the boys by 10 lengths in the GII Hollywood Juvenile Championship. When the racing switched to Del Mar, Lukas continued the pattern of aiming Althea against both fillies and colts, and she responded by winning both the GII Del Mar Debutante (by 15 lengths) and the GII Del Mar Futurity, just 10 days apart.

After a mix of firsts and seconds against fillies at Santa Anita in the fall, Althea closed out her 2-year-old season by attempting the mixed-sex Grade I double of the Hollywood Starlet (first) and Juvenile (sixth). Althea started 1984 with Santa Anita stakes victories against fillies, then shipped to Oaklawn for the Fantasy, where she finished a fast second despite encountering significant trip trouble.

Back then, the Fantasy was run the week before the Arkansas Derby. Lukas spent most of that week saying he wouldn't enter Althea against the boys. He did anyway.

Althea toyed with the Arkansas Derby field, drawing off to win by seven lengths while equaling the track record at the time. Afterward, Lukas admitted he had planned all week to run his star filly in that spot, but that he had chosen not to tell anyone until the day the race was drawn.

Thirty-eight years later, on the day after Secret Oath's win, Lukas remained uncommitted to a plan beyond saying he'd take it one race at a time.

Sunday, Lukas at first told the Oaklawn notes team that “I don't know what we're going to do,” before later adding, “Right now, she would be in the Fantasy and Ethereal Road would be in the [Arkansas] Derby.”

But you never know. The man is entitled to change his mind.

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The announcement from Equibase that handle on U.S. racing in 2021 set a nine-year high with over $12 billion bet was understandably well received. During a year where an awful lot went wrong for the sport, at least the wagering numbers were healthy.

But, and sorry to rain on the parade, we need more information before we can celebrate.

How much was bet is only part of the story. We need to know where the bets were made and by whom. If the increase was the result of such things as added TV exposure for the NYRA races on Fox Sports or sports bettors gravitating to racing or an overall increase in the sport's popularity, then this is a very positive story. But if the added handle was the result of high-volume players who use computer programs to make their bets increasing their level of wagering in 2021, then the picture is an entirely different one. We just don't know.

“It's better that the numbers go up rather than down, but what is the context on this realistically?” said Pat Cummings, the executive director of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation, who estimates that computer-assisted wagering (CAW) players account for 35% of the total handle in the U.S. “These numbers get put out there in this broad context and that's all it is. So anyone that wants to take a victory lap on them can take a victory lap on them. But they are totally lacking an understanding of the greater detail of the business. It would be like saying you lost 20 pounds during the year, but ignoring the fact that your cholesterol went up 100 points. It's impossible to quantify how good or, potentially, how bad this is.”

This is pari-mutuel wagering, where the successful bettors feast off of the unsuccessful ones. It's their money that they are winning, not the house's money. With the CAW phenomenon, betting on the horses has turned into a matter of the whales vs. minnows or the CAW bettors vs. everyone else. The whales have been gobbling up the minnows, and after a while all the minnows will be gone. This is a serious threat to the long-term viability of the sport. If the CAW players bet more than ever in 2021, well, that's a big problem.

In a perfect world, there would be transparency and we would know exactly where the handle is coming from. How much was bet on-track or at brick-and-mortar OTBs or simulcasting outlets, with ADWs like NYRA Bets and TwinSpires, and how much was bet by the CAW players?

We're never going to find out. Based on the estimate that 35% of all bets made in the U.S. were made by CAW players, that means the computer players wager at least $4 billion a year. With a few exceptions, tracks and other wagering outlets will never turn away their business and neither will they divulge any pertinent information. That's understandable. The CAW customers want to maintain their privacy and the tracks and betting outlets don't want competitors to know their business.

Perhaps the gains made in betting in 2021 had nothing to do with CAW players. We just don't know. It would be nice if we did.

Field Size Shrinks Again

The Equibase year-end release of racing's economic indicators also included the nugget that average field size in 2021 was 7.3 starters per race. That was a 7.2% decline from 2020 and a 2.08% drop from 2019. While those drops alone aren't alarming, it was the smallest average field size since the Jockey Club started keeping records in 1950. As recently as 2011, the average field size was 8.04. This isn't good and there is nothing to suggest it will get better any time soon.

Peruvian Trainers Hits 10,000 Milestone

Trainer Juan Suarez won five races on Saturday at Hipodromo de Monterrico in Lima, Peru to become the first trainer worldwide to have 10,000 career winners. Entering Sunday, Steve Asmussen had 9,592 winners.

Over the last five years, Suarez is averaging 315 wins a year, while Asmussen is averaging 390. That means Asmussen will likely chip away at Suarez's lead but could spend years trying to catch him. The main advantage Asmussen has is his age. He is 16 years younger than Suarez and will surely outlast him.

The Flightline Watch

Trainer John Sadler has yet to decide where budding superstar Flightline (Tapit) will run next after his ultra-impressive win in the GI Runhappy Malibu at Santa Anita. But he has ruled out a start in either the G1 Saudi Cup or G1 Dubai World Cup. Sadler has mentioned the GI Metropolitan H. and the GI Pacific Classic as possible starts for Flightline.

Kristian Rhein and the “Assloads” of SGF-1000

Kristian Rhein, a suspended veterinarian formerly based at Belmont Park, was sentenced last week to three years in prison for his role in the conspiracy to dope horses that also involves Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro. Rhein was caught on a wiretap bragging that he sold “assloads” of the prohibited medication SGF-1000 not just to Servis but to other trainers.

Rhein isn't the first drug distributor or manufacturer to plead guilty and, surely, every one of them were peddling their drugs to a lot more than just Servis and Navarro and the other trainers who have been indicted. A check of Rhein's records alone could yield dozens of names of trainers who were using SGF-1000 and, therefore, cheating.

Will there be more indictments, maybe many more, to come? I'm beginning to think that it's not going to happen, that the FBI and the Department of Justice are ready to move on to matters more important to them than horse racing. But that shouldn't mean the story ends there. Will any state racing commissions investigate, ask the FBI to share their information, interview Rhein and the others? It's horse racing. Probably not.

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