1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $96,600. Last start: WON Nov. 19 GIII Bob Hope S.

Nysos has won two West Coast sprints with devastating ease by a combined 19 1/4 lengths while pairing Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 97, earning 'TDN Rising Star' accolades, and giving off the impression he has the mental makeup and physical prowess to handle tougher competition at longer distances.

This Nyquist colt out of a Bernardini mare went through the auction ring three times ($130,000 KEENOV, $150,000 FTKOCT, $550,000 OBSAPR) before debuting over six furlongs Oct. 21 at Santa Anita. Seeing a Bob Baffert trainee win at first asking by 10 1/2 lengths isn't exactly a shocker, but not too many colts from that barn run up the score by such a gaudy margin while going off at 6-1 in the betting.

Start number two was the seven-eighths GIII Bob Hope S. at Del Mar Nov. 19, and that four-horse race ended up being more or less a schooling session for 2-5 fave Nysos, who, racing with blinkers off, broke alertly and settled in last while always in touch with the leaders behind brisk splits. His sustained move enabled him to power past overmatched rivals while well in hand and never being asked for maximum effort, scoring by 8 3/4 lengths.

Nysos has since recorded four regularly spaced workouts at Santa Anita and seems certain to next surface in a two-turn stakes, perhaps the Jan. 27 GIII Southwest S. over 1 1/16 miles or the Feb. 3 GIII Lewis S. at a mile.

For the third straight year, Churchill Downs has banished Baffert related to Medina Spirit's drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points. However, the focus for TDN's Top 12 writeups will be on where Baffert's horses fit in the overall Derby picture and not the trainer's eligibility status.

2) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $1,102,750. Last start: WON Nov. 4 GI FanDuel Breeders Cup Juvenile.

A two-prep path to Louisville–the Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S. and Mar. 30 GI Florida Derby–is trainer Todd Pletcher's plan for GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile victor and likely 2-year-old champ Fierceness.

This 'TDN Rising Star' and Repole Stable homebred by City of Light powered home by 11 1/4 lengths (95 Beyer) as the 11-10 winner of his debut sprint at Saratoga over a sealed, muddy track. That wet-track fondness didn't carry over to the sloppy

GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct, when the odds-on Fierceness lunged and got bumped at the break, loomed boldly with a four-wide move, then splashed home punchless in the stretch.

Off that seventh-place drubbing, the betting public abandoned Fierceness at 16-1 in the Breeders' Cup. He responded by trouncing the Juvenile field by 6 1/4 lengths en route to a 105 Beyer victory.

This colt checked a lot of boxes that day by showing speed in hand from the gate, a willingness to latch onto a pacemaker, good responsiveness to cues to quicken, and an ability to ratchet into a higher gear without appearing fully torqued before galloping out well ahead of everyone else.

Fierceness only had to repel one single bid in upper stretch before cruising home in the Juvenile, a race in which the top three betting choices all failed to fire without obvious excuse. The fizzling of the faves might have indicated that the race wasn't that deep. But now, two months in the rear-view mirror, the Juvenile looks like it could be shaping into a key race, with its strength on paper solidifying after two of the four horses to run back won stakes in their next-out starts.

Fierceness | Benoit

The biggest hurdle for Fierceness might end up being historical: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Kentucky Derby wins from 39 runnings (Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016). Even some of the most electrifying 2-year-olds who excelled over 1 1/16 miles on the first Saturday of November have had trouble outrunning that daunting metric going 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

3) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

Muth (Good Magic) was named a 'TDN Rising Star' June 18 when he uncorked an 8 3/4-length debut win. With four total races at age two that included two routes and a Grade I win in the American Pharoah S., trainer Bob Baffert opted to sharpen this colt's speed by picking the Jan. 6 GIII San Vicente S. at seven furlongs for Muth's first start at three.

This $190,000 KEESEP and $2 million OBSMAR colt earned a no-nonsense win by assertively stalking two pacemakers and breaking away at will to earn a 91 Beyer in the San Vicente, meaning Muth has now run at least a 90 Beyer in all five lifetime races.

“This horse has a lot of class. He's learning a lot,” said jockey Juan Hernandez, who has been aboard Muth for all three wins and two seconds. “I think he finally learned to run by himself because he broke really quick, and he saw the other two horses in front of me and he just relaxed really well behind them.”

Muth ran second behind Fierceness in the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita. He enjoyed a primo stalking trip over his home track, and seemed poised to take off in tandem with that rival on the far turn. But by the quarter pole Muth was already being driven hard, and he had no response to match Fierceness's full-flight winning move.

Fierceness holds the head-to-head edge. But Muth owns the broader body of work, and I wouldn't bet against him the next time he hooks up with Fierceness.

Given that these two colts are based on opposite coasts, that rematch is unlikely to happen until the Kentucky Derby itself.

4) BORN NOBLE (c, Constitution–Zapperkat, by Ghostzapper) 'TDN Rising Star' O-St Elias Stable & West Point Thoroughbreds; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $725,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $36,000. Last start: WON Dec. 30 Gulfstream MdSpWt.

Bet to 13-10 favoritism first time out going seven furlongs at Gulfstream, Born Noble (Constitution) immediately put himself into the race, pressing the pacemaking second-fave from the outside.

Irad Ortiz Jr. nudged this $725,000 KEESEP colt forward, got on even terms with the leader through the turn, and by the quarter pole forced his foe into submission while still being hand-ridden.

But once alone on the lead and set down for the drive, Born Noble came unglued, veering sharply inward despite left-handed stick work and a right-handed yank of the reins. He remained on his left lead until just prior to the sixteenth pole, but Ortiz's rousing did spark a noticeable uptick in acceleration through mid-stretch before Born Noble got geared down while 5 1/2 lengths clear under the wire.

The post-race focus might be on this firster's obvious greenness. But a glimmer of gravitas also shone through, and in the long view, Born Noble's zig-zagging antics didn't resonate as anything that can't be smoothed out with experience.

He earned 'TDN Rising Star' status and a 93 Beyer–although precise figure-making can get tricky on a day like Dec. 30, when a “good” Gulfstream surface was drying out to “fast” and there were only three total dirt races (all at different distances) for comparison on the card.

5) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $96,750. Last start: 2nd Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Sierra Leone (Gun Runner), the FTSAUG $2.3 million sales topper, in some ways ran a better race than winner Dornoch (Good Magic) when on the losing end of a nose photo in the nine-furlong GII Remsen S. Dec. 2.

That's because this Chad Brown trainee built up serious back-of-the-pack momentum when rallying from last over a sealed, muddy track. His big, sweeping, seven-wide move was notable on a day when speed was so dominant in 10 races at Aqueduct that five winners wired their fields and the remaining five were either right up on the pace or re-rallied after losing their leads.

Sierra Leone sling-shotted to the lead but lugged in once it looked like he'd blow past Dornoch, who resiliently clawed back command while pinned near the inside rail. The two co-earned 91 Beyers.

Sierra Leone | Coglianese

It was a costly lack of late-race focus in terms of the race outcome, but still, it's the type of lapse you'd rather see in December than in the spring. It was only Sierra Leone's second lifetime start, and two turns against stakes company is never a slam-dunk for a first try off a debut maiden win, even one that stamped him as a 'TDN Rising Star'.

Brown told DRF.com post-win that Sierra Leone reminds him a bit of Early Voting, another Gun Runner colt he trained to a win in the 2022 GI Preakness S.

“Now that he's lugged in [twice], I'll fool around with a little equipment to straighten him out,” Brown told DRF. “He's got a world of ability so we'll take him down [to Florida], regroup a little bit, and map out a campaign that hopefully gets him to the first Saturday in May.”

6) PARCHMENT PARTY (c, Constitution–Life Well Lived, by Tiznow) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-B Flay Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $450,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $141,960. Last start: WON Nov. 9 Churchill AOC.

'TDN Rising Star' Parchment Party, a large-framed June 5 foal, rallied stoutly up the rail from last and determinedly churned his way through traffic when winning a two-turn Churchill allowance Nov. 9 with a four-wide sweep. This son of Constitution wasn't fully dialed in and a looked touch unfocused through the final furlong, but he also wasn't even close to scraping bottom effort-wise, either.

The third- and fourth-place horses in that race won allowance and stakes engagements in their next-out starts.

Parchment Party is bred on the same cross that produced Tiz the Law, who won multiple Grade I stakes in 2020 (Travers, Florida Derby, the nine-furlong Belmont S.), plus fellow 'Rising Star' and 2022 GIII Peter Pan S. victor We the People.

A $450,000 KEESEP colt out of trainer Bill Mott's barn, Parchment Party got sent to Payson Park following his 2-for-2 start, but he hasn't had a published workout since Dec. 16.

7) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-1-1, $165,000. Last start: WON Dec. 23 Gun Runner S.

Track Phantom, a $500,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road, doesn't leap out as a no-brainer Derby prospect. But the speed-centric winner of the Gun Runner S. does have upside appeal when you read between the lines of his past performances.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has started him four times, twice in one-turn miles and twice at 1 1/16 miles, with a Beyer progression of 74, 81, 88 and 89. Yet one intangible that doesn't come across on paper is how level-headedly Track Phantom has dealt with keyed-up rivals to his inside in both of his two-turn races.

In his Nov. 25 maiden-breaker, he forced the fractions with a rank runner pinned down at the fence from the entrance of the first turn to the start of the second, then repulsed a challenge from the only other horse to draw within a half-length on the turn. Roused for run three-sixteenths out, this colt showed a hint of another gear a furlong from the wire before being wrapped up late.

Facing winners for the first time against stakes company at Fair Grounds, Track Phantom was keen to make the lead from his outside post in the Gun Runner S., but a 36-1 speedster slipped up the open rail. The duo sparred down the backstretch before Track Phantom seized the lead three-eighths out and held off bids from two fresh challengers, including the 1-2 favorite.

“It's impressive that both of his two turn races have been victories,” Asmussen said post-win. “I actually thought they went too fast in the middle [of the Gun Runner]. You know, [a :46.93 half] here in a two-turn race, you don't see horses see it out very often.”

The Jan. 20 GII Lecomte S. is next.

8) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $257,400. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Dornoch (Good Magic) figures to be one of the more intriguing story lines as Derby 150 approaches because he's a full brother to last year's Derby winner, Mage.

This $325,000 KEESEP colt started off his career for trainer Danny Gargan with a pair of seconds, one in a Saratoga maiden sprint and another in the Sapling S. going a mile at Monmouth. He then wired a 1 1/16-mile maiden field at Keeneland Oct. 14, running up the score by 6 1/2 lengths.

Dornoch (inside) | Sarah Andrew

Dornoch won the Remsen S. at Aqueduct by outsprinting five other rivals for the lead into the first turn over a speed-favoring track. Settling at the fence while pressured by a 27-1 shot, he knocked back bids from a couple of new challengers on the far turn, then fought gamely to surge back in front after seemingly being passed for good by Sierra Leone.

He also brushed the rail in upper stretch, yet somehow overcame that too.

“It's crazy. Usually when a horse hits the rail at the eighth pole like he did, they just stop running altogether,” Gargan said post-win. “I can't believe he re-rallied after that. He did see the other horse and get running back at him, but hitting the rail knocked him off stride and then it took him a few jumps to get back going.”

Gargan mentioned the Mar. 2 GII Fountain of Youth S. over 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream as a possible next start, with the Feb. 3 GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct in the mix (which would be a second straight nine-furlong race for Dornoch).

9) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $237,350. Last start: WON Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S.

Catching Freedom (Constitution) broke his maiden in a one-turn mile at Churchill, ran a credible fourth behind Parchment Party in a 1 1/16-mile allowance, then annexed the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn with a long, grind-'em-down rally (87 Beyer).

This $575,000 KEESEP colt rode the rail near the back in his stakes debut, sliced between rivals entering the far turn, got second run at a dueling duo, spun widest in the five path, then finished in workmanlike fashion with his head cocked to the grandstand before widening the winning margin to 2 1/2 lengths.

“Very proud of the horse,” trainer Brad Cox said post-win. “I think he's still learning. I think he was a little green there down the lane, but overall showed that he does have a lot of stamina and talent.”

Catching Freedom is a half-brother to Bishops Bay (Uncle Mo), a stakes-placed sophomore who raced four times for Cox (different owners) in 2023. That colt had the distinction of posting Beyers of 97, 88, 97 and 96, and in one of those races Bishops Bay was beaten only a head by subsequent Belmont S. and Travers S. winner Arcangelo (Arrogate).

10) CHANGE OF COMMAND (c, Into Mischief–Moi, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales history: $570,000 Wlg '21 FTKNOV; $1,050,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $113,300. Last start: WON Jan. 5 Gulfstream AOC.

It took four well-spaced starts for this son of Into Mischief ($570,000 FTKNOV, $1.05 million KEESEP) to bust out of the maiden ranks at 2-5 odds at Gulfstream. But he's now won two in a row in Florida after an 83-Beyer allowance score Jan. 5 over 1 1/16 miles, capitalizing on a trouble-free stalking trip to wear down a pesky pacesetter.

Despite winning by a neck, trainer Shug McGuaghey said Change of Command “didn't want to finish as well as I'd like. I've got to do some work to figure things out. I hope this moves him forward. He had to kind of belly down and run, so that should help him. We'll take him back to Payson and find out.”

Change of Command had previously compiled a robust set of company lines while finishing respectably behind well-regarded juveniles in New York.

11) ETHAN ENERGY (c, Uncle Mo–Sass and Class, by Harlan's Holiday) O-Stonestreet Stables LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $34,250. Last start: Won Dec. 23 FG MdSpWt.

This Fair Grounds maiden-breaker for trainer Brad Cox hit the winner's circle in start number two Dec. 23, adding Lasix. removing blinkers, and stretching to 1 1/16 miles for a 5 1/4-length tally (83 Beyer).

Under a light hold on the outside while midpack behind a tepid tempo, Ethan Energy was encouraged to loop the group on the far turn. This Stonestreet homebred son of Uncle Mo stayed on and opened up under mild rousing through the lane, then got pushed out late under a steady hand ride before being geared down for the final stages.

His debut at Keeneland, in which Ethan Energy was off last and allowed to lag with only mild progress inside, has thus far yielded three next-out maiden winners. One of them, Legalize (Constitution), also won the Sugar Bowl S., which was two races later on the same card as Ethan Energy's maiden score.

12) CARBONE (c, Mitole–Treasure in Heaven, by Street Sense) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-L William & Corinne Heiligbrodt (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $153,000. Last start: WON Dec. 31 OP AOC.

This 'TDN Rising Star's sire, Mitole, was the blitzingly fast 2019 champion male sprinter. But there are enough longer-distance influences in Carbone's pedigree (Giant's Causeway and Seattle Slew up top, Street Sense for a damsire) to think he might stay on as a horse of interest as the prep season progresses.

Carbone has been in front at every call in his 2-for-2 career for trainer Steve Asmussen, and this homebred for William and Corinne Heiligbrodt has paired 85 and 86 Beyers while stretching out from six furlongs to a mile.

In his Oaklawn allowance win, Carbone effortlessly controlled the tempo and really only faced one serious challenge on the far turn, opening up under his own power and toying with that rival whenever he edged closer.

His run into the stretch provided a nice visual, with jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. sitting chilly atop this colt while every other horse in his wake was being driven. Carbone won by four, but it could have been more had the race not finished at the sixteenth pole under Oaklawn's short-stretch configuration for the mile distance.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: Dreams of Roses Take the Chill out of January appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Bred by Gainesway Thoroughbreds and trained by Shug McGaughey, Signator is also owned by the partnership of Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr., and Lane's End Racing.

The post Signator Off Derby Trail appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

Arabian Knight's thorough ransacking of the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Jan. 28 effectively slammed the door on any early-season debate about whether or not this 'TDN Rising Star' would live up to the outsized hype heaped upon him after just a single sprint win three months ago.

This speed-centric, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) not only wired the field with aplomb, but he checked a lot of boxes on the Derby intangibles list, including shipping away from his home base, handling both a sloppy racing surface and two turns, and showing that being confronted with multiple tactical in-race challenges didn't faze him in the least.

Arabian Knight broke fluidly and willingly, then effortlessly cleared the pesky 46-1 Frosted Departure (Frosted), who had inside position. Splashing onto the backstretch, Arabian Knight was looking around “a lot” according to jockey John Velazquez, who moved him off the rail to relax, maintaining a steady leading margin of 1 1/2 lengths into the far turn. The second and third favorites launched one-punch bids that soon flattened out, but the overachieving Frosted Departure was still gamely shadowing the 2-5 fave, having whittled down the lead to half a length at the head of the homestretch.

Velazquez then got after his colt, but Arabian Knight only needed two cracks of the crop and some mild hand-urging to mesh into an unmatchable deep-stretch gear that surely did not come close to scraping the bottom of his stamina reserves. “Going to the wire I was like, 'Okay, that's what I wanted to see,” Velazquez said post-win.

It's tough to tease out any “cons” to go along with all these gushing “pros” about Arabian Knight's sophomore unveiling. If there is one, it might be a very mild quibble about the Beyer Speed Figure he earned (96), which marked a slight regression from his 97 debut in a MSW on the Breeders' Cup undercard back in November

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte (Violence) is three workouts into his training for the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. Even though this 'TDN Rising Star' ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) capped his 2-year-old season with a definitive win in the Breeders' Cup, proponents of key races have long since locked in on Forte's other Grade I route victory, the Oct. 8 Breeders' Futurity S., as the defining stakes race on the Derby trail so far.

In addition to Forte's next-out tally in the GI Juvenile, that Keeneland race also yielded back-to-back next-out Grade II and III stakes winner Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro); the next-out Grade III winner Two Phil's (Hard Spun); the eventual Grade III winner and 'TDN Rising Star' Newgate (Into Mischief); one other next-out listed stakes winner, and a next-out allowance winner. In addition, the runner-up in that race, the highly acclaimed Loggins (Ghostzapper), who has yet to have a published workout in 2023, rates highly on many “wiseguy” lists as the juvenile who ran the best losing effort in a Grade I stakes last season.

There have now been 11 Kentucky Derby qualifying points races run at 1 1/16 miles. No Derby prospect since has eclipsed Forte's 100 Beyer from that race (although two have tied it), and his closing final-sixteenth fraction of :6.19 in the stretch run of the Juvenile is still fastest among the 1 1/16-mile preps.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

Trainer Todd Pletcher has been known to make judicious use of Florida allowance races in prepping his Derby prospects, and Saturday's eight-length blowout in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream left the impression this $1.3-million KEESEP colt by Tapit has the athleticism and confidence to be a major player when assigned a two-turn stakes task.

Breaking from the rail as a first-time Lasix user Feb. 4, Tapit Trice (again) was a touch slow leaving the gate. Luis Saez swooped him out to the five path, and this assertive gray picked off half the pack to carve out a sweet stalking spot, gaining incrementally down the long backstraight run. Tapit Trice built up serious momentum by the five-sixteenths pole, and when he accosted his favored stablemate for the lead, he managed to dispatch him without serious tussle.

Slicing into the home stretch with no rivals left to conquer, Tapit Trice got to gawking a bit, but Saez refocused him with one stern right-handed swat nearing the furlong marker before finishing under a moderate drive.

The 92-Beyer win generated no shortage of speculation about how Tapit Trice might have prevailed had he instead been entered in the GIII Holy Bull S. over 1 1/16 miles that same afternoon. But his first-level allowance win will prove useful in the long run considering this colt still needs to work on alertness out of the gate, a minor issue that up to this point has been overcome by raw ability and prime positioning in one-turn miles.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20.

Rocket Can, a $245,000 FTSAUG RNA, is a good example of a Derby prospect whose visual impressions rate quite a bit higher than the speed numbers he's earned in those races.

The 82-Beyer victor of Saturday's Holy Bull S. gave up considerable ground on both turns while always being within three lengths of striking distance from the leaders. Urged five-sixteenths out by Junior Alvarado, Rocket Can responded on cue, seizing the lead off the turn and remaining mentally intent through the stretch, maintaining a three-quarter length winning margin with a bearing-down stablemate hot on his heels.

Starting with a switch to routes in his third start, trainer Bill Mott has developed an efficient gray who now comes out running to establish key positioning, knows how to pounce off the far turn, and without hesitation throws himself headlong into deep-stretch showdowns.

Rocket Can's mid-pack tactics in the Holy Bull were also against the grain of Gulfstream's short-stretch track layout for 1 1/16 miles, which had him starting from the outermost post very close to the first turn in a race that ends at the sixteenth pole. And he did his job while overcoming a moderate tempo that did no pace favors to aid his stalking style.

5) BANISHING (c, Ghostzapper–Dowager, by A.P. Indy) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $42,000. Last start: 1st Fair Grounds Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 26. KY Derby Points: 0.

Banishing has resumed training after getting cast in his stall Jan. 20, requiring sutures to close a hind-leg cut.

Trainer Brendan Walsh told Daily Racing Form last week that “nothing has been ruled out or ruled in” as far as the next race for this Godolphin homebred. He had been slated to start favored in allowance/optional claimer at Fair Grounds the day after his accident, but had to scratch.

With a pedigree that looks more tantalizing the closer we get to 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May (by Ghostzapper out of an A.P. Indy mare), this chestnut with a distinctive white blaze won at second asking on Dec. 26 over 1 1/16 miles in New Orleans, bounding home by 8 1/2 lengths and earning a 90 Beyer for the effort.

He was a front-running force in that race, displaying measured speed while edging away under pressure before cracking open the race late. His final time of 1:44.80 was .05 seconds faster than the same-distance Gun Runner S. for more experienced juveniles four races later on that card.

6) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

It's rare when you encounter a pedigree with a breeding line that features a sire (Arrogate at 122) and damsire (Bellamy Road at 120) who both posted stratospheric Beyer figures of at least 120 during their racing careers.

Cave Rock himself ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) uncorked a 101 Beyer in his 6 1/2-furlong sprint debut last summer at Del Mar, and he upped the ante to 104 with a dominant win in the GI American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita.

He was then a beaten favorite with reasonable excuses in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (hot and bothered pre-race, worked too hard through quick opening quarter).

But those imposing stats all start to fade in relevancy the longer this 'TDN Rising Star' remains without a published workout. As of Monday morning, he's the only Top 12 contender yet to hit the worktab this year, and trainer Bob Baffert now faces a race against the clock to launch a campaign that includes at least one prep race between now and May 6.

7) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

On the face of it, 'TDN Rising Star' Faustin's second-place finish in the four-horse, seven-furlong Jan. 29 GII San Vicente S. was only a so-so effort. But from a longer-term developmental perspective, the race could still end up being a useful stepping-stone.

The winner was his stablemate, Havnameltdown (Uncaptured), who looks, acts, and performs like a true one-turn stakes colt. Havnameltdown also had everything his own way on the front end, and while Faustin did show some flashes of interest–like diving into an opening at the rail when jockey Ramon Vazquez shook the reins to cue him three-eighths out–this son of Curlin (out of a Hard Spun mare) clearly needs more real estate to uncoil effectively.

Trainer Bob Baffert said post-race that Havnameltdown “will stay one turn. Faustin, he was kind of a grinding slow, he wants to go longer. [But] you try to get outs into them so they'll learn and you'll figure [them out]. The problem is that if you break your maiden first time out, you have to run in stakes. It is that way all over the country. Just getting these races into them it is important. Faustin, you can tell he is not there yet. [But] once he goes two turns, you'll see a big difference in him. He wat trying to get there, but he was running against a top-class sprinter.”

8) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Signator, a $1.7-million OBSAPR son of Tapit, is gearing up for his 2023 campaign after being sidelined late last fall with a wrenched ankle.

His professional, stalking score while driving through at the rail in an Oct. 14 MSW mile at Aqueduct was eye-catching enough to earn 'TDN Rising Star' status, and he's now three breezes into his work pattern at Payson Park.

“I haven't really picked out a place to run him yet, but it won't be long,” trainer Shug McGuaghey said on Friday, adding that Gulfstream or Tampa are the two likely comeback spots. “He's grown, gotten bigger, and filled out the way we want him to.”
McGuaghey is quite familiar with the female side of Signator's pedigree, having trained the dam (Pension), the second dam (Furlough), and great-grandsire Easy Goer.

“Signator is a lot different than Pension. She was very high-strung, and just broke her maiden. But some of the others were fairly nice,” he added with understatement.

9) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

This son of son of 2017 Belmont S. victor Tapwrit ($100,00 KEENOV; $150,000 FTKJUL; EASMAY $340,000) has compiled a 3-for-3 record, but he'll be due for a dive into the graded end of the stakes pool in his next outing, which is likely to come at either Fair Grounds or Oaklawn.

A 'TDN Rising Star,' Victory Formation sports a decent MSW-allowance-ungraded stakes progression, with ascending winning Beyer figures of 81-85-91.

Trainer Brad Cox has described him as an intelligent colt who “doesn't overdo it,” which he believes will only be a plus as the distances increase along with the demands of tougher competition.

Victory Formation's current company lines could use some beefing up: The three horses who ran 3-4-5 behind him in the Jan. 1, short-stretch Smarty Jones S. all failed to win in next-out stakes, with all three of them regressing on the Beyer scale.

10) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: 4-1-1-0, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

When a Bob Baffert-trained colt requires four starts to break his maiden, that usually relegates him to the “B” list within a stable of sophomores that annually fields a pretty deep bench.

I wouldn't count Hejazi out of the mix based on that profile, though. The $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, this New York-bred son of Bernardini ran better in his trio of defeats than those races might seem on paper.

A step slow out of the gate in his Aug. 20 Del Mar sprint debut, Hejazi rushed up to lead between calls, backed off, then fired again to land second behind an eventual grass stakes winner.

Start No. 2 saw Hejazi drawn way out in post 10 sprinting 5 ½ furlongs, and he flashed wide speed behind wire-to-wire stablemate Speed Boat Beach (Bayern), who established a track-record clocking and has subsequently gone on to win two turf stakes.

Start No. 3 was an ambitious push to try and get Hejazi to the Breeders' Cup, and as a maiden against winners in the American Pharoah S. he managed third behind stablemate Cave Rock, the eventual favorite and runner-up in the Juvenile.

A three-month freshening did Hejazi a world of good, and he finally hit the winner's circle going 6 ½ furlongs at Santa Anita Jan. 15, swatting away two challengers inside the final half a furlong (97 Beyer).

11) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $322,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee, who just hit his third birthday Feb. 6, was a surprising sort straight out of the gate, winning over seven furlongs in his Sept. 3 Saratoga debut at 14-1 odds.

In three 1 1/16 miles since then, he's overachieved without being overwhelming, winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. on Nov. 26 and the GIII Lecomte S. on Jan. 21 by rallying off the tailgate with wide, steady drives.

The only loss to date for this $200,000 KEESEP grad came in start No. 2, and considering Instant Coffee was making the jump straight into Grade I company while going around two turns for the first time in the key-race Breeders' Futurity S., he actually managed a decent fourth behind eventual divisional champ Forte.

Instant Coffee's race spacing and foundation both leave room for continued improvement, with trainer Brad Cox indicating that one or two additional stakes in the Fair Grounds prep series are on his radar.

12) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $69,750. Last Start: Won Sar Maiden Special Weight, Aug. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

It's now been half a year since Disarm has been in the entries. This 'TDN Rising Star' (based on his 6 ¼-length, 86-Beyer Saratoga sprint score Aug. 6) has been breezing somewhat under the radar at Fair Grounds, but he's now four works in and up to five furlongs.

“He's training with anticipation of him making it back to the Derby trail,” owner/breeder Ron Winchell texted to TDN over the weekend. As for a target race, Winchell wrote that he and trainer Steve Asmussen “will know more after his next work.”

Last summer, Asmussen said he had “high expectations” for Disarm, adding that in a June 19 third-place debut at Churchill, the colt “didn't do much correctly first time out, just because he's a big boy. Looks like he's gonna stretch out beautifully. We will definitely get to dream with him for a while.”

Disarm was shelved in September for undisclosed reasons, and at the time, Asmussen predicted a return sometime during the New Orleans winter/spring meet.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: The Strong Get Stronger appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

We're on the cusp of the one-month mark to the GI Kentucky Derby, and this Saturday marks the most important weekend of nine-furlong preps on the Triple Crown calendar, with significant stakes at Santa Anita, Keeneland, and Aqueduct. Next week, the Top 12 expands to the Top 20 as the race for qualifying points intensifies and the actual field begins to take shape.

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 7-3-1-3, $422,440.
Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27, 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP. Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 80

Greatest Honour has not been dethroned from his top ranking despite a so-so third as the 4-5 fave in the GI Florida Derby because he's still the horse to beat over 10 furlongs with a more robust pace in front of him. Since he burst into the Top 12, I've been cautioning that it can be tactically dangerous to fall in love with a deep closer as your Derby horse because late runners are so often at the mercy of traffic. That exact scenario worked against this Tapit-sired Courtlandt Farms homebred on Saturday, when jockey Jose Ortiz tried to follow the rail trip of eventual winner Known Agenda (Curlin), but instead had his momentum halted three times when hemmed in on the backstretch and on the far turn. Greatest Honour got pelted with kickback and briefly had to pause at the heels of several rivals before tipping out for a belated rally that lacked true spark. Ortiz wisely didn't hammer on his horse when it was obvious Greatest Honour wasn't in it to win it down the lane, and we should expect to see the tightest version yet of this long-striding stayer by the time trainer Shug McGuaghey gets him to Louisville.

2) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6, 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3
Next Start: GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40

The undefeated juvenile champ closed as the 4-1 favorite Sunday in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. This Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' and Godolphin homebred is a high-energy stalker who has demonstrated an adept level of comfort both pressing the pace and rating from farther back. But he's yet to encounter a serious, multi-pronged, deep-stretch challenge in any of his victories, and thus far he's been superior enough that jockey Luis Saez has been able to park him outside and in the clear, giving up ground so as not to encounter traffic. That strategy might not work in a crowded 20-horse race like the Derby. But then again, elite-level horses make their own breaks, and in-race agility is very much on the side of this athletic gray. As of this writing, no other Top 12 horses are listed as probables for Saturday's GII Blue Grass S., and Essential Quality figures to go off as one of the heavier prep-race favorites we've seen this spring. He's already won twice at Keeneland going long (albeit over the short-stretch configuration that ends at the sixteenth pole). But we're now going on 30 years since the last winner of the Blue Grass–Strike the Gold in 1991–parlayed that win into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May. In that interim, however, three horses–Street Sense in 2007, Thunder Gulch in 1995 and Sea Hero in 1993–lost the Blue Grass in their final Derby tune-up then won in Louisville.

3) CONCERT TOUR (c, Street Sense–Purse Strings, by Tapit)
O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $756,600.
Last Start: 1st GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 6
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

The pace scenario in the Arkansas Derby figures to be one of the more intriguing tactical matchups of the Triple Crown prep season. The last time the two likely favorites met, in the GII Rebel S., Concert Tour outbroke Caddo River and Caddo River gave up the rail and the lead to let him go, but then looked uncomfortable and rank and never engaged when asked for run on the far turn. Will the two 'TDN Rising Stars' hook up from the outset in a committed duel in the Arkansas Derby? Or will jockey Joel Rosario turn the tables and opt out of a kamikaze confrontation? Concert Tour looked pretty confident bounding along at a measured clip on the lead in the Rebel, but the style of his run didn't stamp him as a needs-the-lead type of horse. At 3-for-3 lifetime and with two of those wins in sprints, Concert Tour will still be light on experience over a distance of ground in the Arkansas Derby. But his Street Sense (out of a Tapit mare) breeding line should be stout enough to allay any concerns he'll hit a wall at nine furlongs. Favorites have crossed the finish wire first in the Arkansas Derby for five straight runnings, including split divisions in 2020 (when there was a subsequent drug positive DQ).

4) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB})
O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-1, $541,700.
Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 102

Known Agenda has now bested No. 1-ranked Greatest Honour twice in head-to-head matchups and his Florida Derby win demonstrated marked progression and an increased level of midpack stalking comfort while racing in blinkers for the second time. He now has a stamina-centric base of three victories over nine furlongs, and trainer Todd Pletcher said Sunday that this $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG “came back in great shape [with] good energy.” Known Agenda and Greatest Honour both opted for rail trips in the Florida Derby, but this colt is a touch quicker out of the gate and attained a more prominent placement, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was able to deftly guide Known Agenda through tight passages that closed by the time Greatest Honour attempted to follow him. A three-wide move off the turn put Known Agenda in charge through the lane; he wandered out under left-handed stickwork yet responded ably when roused (although it should be noted that the only rival he had to truly run down was a 12-1 shot who had been softened up in the pace duel and was on his left lead through the stretch). “I've been pleased with the way he's been able to get a better position in the race and improve his position going along. We've always had a strong feeling that added distance was going to be to his liking,” said Pletcher.

5) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales history: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110

At some point in late April, jockey Joel Rosario–currently leading the continent in both earnings and graded stakes wins–is going to have to choose between two live Derby mounts, Concert Tour and Hot Rod Charlie. If Rosario opts off of this two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT), jockey Flavien Prat could wind up with the ride. “This is the time of year where the jockeys are jockeying, literally, for their best chance to win the Derby,” Bill Strauss, a co-owner of Hot Rod Charlie, told the San Diego Union-Tribune over the weekend. He added that his partnership has been keeping contact with Prat, the runaway leader in wins and earnings at the current Santa Anita meet, and he noted that Prat rode this Oxbow colt back in September when Hot Rod Charlie was fifth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths, in a Del Mar grass MSW. “With those two, it's like, do you want [Babe] Ruth or [Joe] DiMaggio?” Strauss quipped. “You'd rather have the guy that's faced the same pitcher, though. Experience on the horse is invaluable.” So is proficiency in the Derby itself: Prat has ridden in three Derbies, placing third in 2017 aboard 40-1 Battle of Midway, and crossing the wire second but getting elevated to first via DQ on 65-1 Country House in 2019.

6) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-2-0, $196,092.
Last Start: 5th GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10

The Kentucky Derby is the ultimate goal for every Top 12 contender, but don't overlook the fact that the Arkansas Derby always figured to be high on the wish list of this colt's connections. This Hard Spun homebred races in the colors of Shortleaf Stable, the outfit run by Hot Springs native John Ed Anthony. Formerly racing as Loblolly Stable, Anthony has won the Arkansas Derby a record three times, with Temperence Hill in 1980, Demons Begone in 1987, and Pine Bluff in 1992 (the latter two were half-brothers). This 'TDN Rising Star' who just hit his third birthday Mar. 29 is a speed-centric threat, but after Caddo River handed the lead to Concert Tour in the Rebel S., he refused to settle and spent most of his energy fighting the rider down the backstretch before suffering a self-inflicted meltdown turning for home. That subpar performance has a “too bad to be true” aura to it though, and it's definitely not in line with the poised and professional appeal that Caddo River flashed earlier in the winter. This colt absolutely needs a qualifying points influx to make the traveling team to Louisville. Right now he's ranked 30th with 10.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 2nd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 25, 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13, 3rd GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66

If you like Derby contenders with ample seasoning, Midnight Bourbon should appeal to your taste. This $525,000 KEESEP colt by Tiznow out of a Malibu Moon mare has made seven starts, all at a mile or longer. Five were in graded stakes, and he's never finished worse than third while racking up Beyers of 93, 96 and 96 in starts at age three. But Midnight Bourbon has yet to unleash that breakthrough effort he seems capable of. He earned his maiden at Ellis Park in a race that yielded only one next-out winner from nine starters, and his GIII Lecomte S. score was achieved under an ideal pace scenario when Midnight Bourbon unexpectedly found himself on the lead with no pressure. This colt is a hard trier capable of digging in when challenged, but Hot Rod Charlie pasted him pretty solidly when they hooked up for the final 2 1/2 furlongs of the Louisiana Derby. Midnight Bourbon looms as a second-tier threat at this point. But if chaos reigns in the Derby, we at least know that he's fit enough to handle a distance of ground and has experienced a few stretch fights that may have toughened him up.

8) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $52,800.
Last Start: 1st Allowance/Opt. Clm., GP, Mar. 11
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence wowed in his 89-Beyer maiden debut on the GI Pegasus World Cup undercard (other next-out starters collectively 1-for-8), then got a useful allowance tightener at 1-10 odds when coasting home when under light encouragement in a Mar. 11 one-turn mile at Gulfstream. Now this Godolphin homebred will hit the road in search of Derby qualifying points in Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct, where he'll be making both his two-turn and stakes debuts while foregoing Lasix for the first time. “He's a very nice, quiet, easy-going horse and I don't think the travel will affect him at all,” trainer Brendan Walsh said. “We'll see how he handles the track. He hits me as a horse who can handle any kind of surface.”

9) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $165,200.
Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30, 2nd GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14

At 2-for-4 with a stakes win to his name, Medina Spirit's overachieving SoCal form looked pretty good in and of itself for a horse who twice sold at public auction for relatively short money ($1,000 OBSWIN and $35,000 OBSOPN). Then came last week's revelation from trainer Bob Baffert that this Protonico colt was discovered to have a slightly entrapped epiglottis and has recently had surgery to correct it. “Pretty impressive he still ran that well,” Baffert told DRF.com. “We scoped him after [the GII San Felipe Mar. 6]. Gave him a few extra days for it to clear up.” Medina Spirit has since twice worked well, firing one training bullet. His GIII Lewis S. wire job was notable for the way he took heat on the lead through swift splits, then never let another horse by him in a three-way fight that had him a neck in front at the wire. That performance took on added significance when third-place finisher Hot Rod Charlie wired the Louisiana Derby with a 99 Beyer next time out. Medina Spirit's only two losses were seconds behind now-sidelined stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good (Into Mischief), who had been ranked as high as No. 2 on the Derby Top 12 through mid-March.

10) REBEL'S ROMANCE (IRE) (Dubawi {Ire}–Minidress {GB}, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Godolphin (IRE). T-Charles Appleby. Lifetime Record: GSW-UAE, 5-4-0-0, $549,879.
Last Starts: 1st G2 UAE Derby, MEY, Mar. 27
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100

Rebel's Romance (Ire), a Godolphin homebred by Dubawi (Ire), has a Kentucky Derby berth if his connections opt to ship the UAE Derby winner (currently fourth in qualifying points with 100). This is a big gelding known as a slow breaker, and he at first looked out of touch at the back of the pack while careening six paths off the fence through the first turn at Meydan. Rebel's Romance settled on the backstretch run, then methodically began picking off half the pack with an outside swoop. Always making headway, he responded to rousing down the long home straight to win easily by open lengths. “He is still very much a work in progress and he looked much better tonight than he did in Saudi Arabia,” said trainer Charlie Appleby. “I think the biggest attribute to him today is that he was going to stay. We were always confident he was going to stay. Stepping up in trip was going to be his forte.”

11) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch)
O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc &
Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY); T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $287,763.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM,
Mar. 6. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

Stabled at Palm Meadows in Florida and training up to the Kentucky Derby, the 15-1 winner of the GII Tampa Bay Derby had his first breeze since that victory on Saturday, going a half mile in :49.25 (17/58). This $55,000 FTKOCT (and subsequently privately purchased) first-crop Ironicus colt owns a 3-for-3 record while displaying a versatile running style, winning on the lead, while stalking, and from closing farther off the pace. At Tampa, Helium was four wide on both turns, got first run at the tiring pacemaker, then gamely held off a fresh closer late in the lane. While Helium will go eight weeks between starts, the third- fifth- and sixth-place horses who ran behind him in the Tampa Derby ran back on Saturday in stakes at Turfway and Gulfstream; two ran sixth, the other was eighth. Only one horse has ever parlayed wins in the Tampa/Kentucky Derbies—Street Sense in 2007. But Helium's maternal grandsire, Thunder Gulch, was the 1995 Derby winner, and Helium's odds in this year's Run for the Roses probably won't be too far off grandpa's juicy 24-1 price.

12) RISK TAKING (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor)
O-Klaravich Stables Inc; B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (KY);
T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-0, $182,530.
Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 6
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10

The 2-for-4 Risk Taking was committed to the Wood Memorial soon after he won the GIII Withers S. when trainer Chad Brown articulated a desire to keep this $240,000 KEESEP bay racing over a track and distance at which the colt has demonstrated ability. But over the past 10 days or so, the list of probables for the Wood has morphed from a relatively shallow stakes to a fairly deep lineup that now includes No. 8-ranked Prevalence, a pair of Aqueduct stakes victors, the beaten fave in the Tampa Bay Derby, and maybe a West Coast invader. After Risk Taking won the Withers with a sweet stalking trip, Brown said “everyone that's touched the horse has commented about how classy he was, the ability that he has, and how he will get better with time and distance.” On Saturday, we'll find out.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Candy Man Rocket (Candy Ride {Arg}): Winner of the GIII Davis S. but beaten fave in the Tampa Bay Derby rerouted from Arkansas Derby to Wood Memorial on Saturday at Aqueduct.

Defunded (Dialed In): Impressive MSW sprint layoff winner for Baffert could resurface in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.

Hush of a Storm (Creative Cause) This New York-bred winner of the Battaglia S. scratched out of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks in favor of Saturday's Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

Like the King (Palace Malice): Big, rangy colt with affinity for turf and Tapeta survived foul claim to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks.

Soup and Sandwich (Into Mischief): Fought the pace battle and gallantly stuck around late in the lane despite being on his left lead through the stretch of the Florida Derby. Trainer Mark Casse also reported this gray got “a little worked up” shipping over from Palm Meadows. “He'll run a lot better out of his stall at Churchill Downs.”

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 30 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

No, the world didn't tilt off its axis last Saturday. But there was a seismic shift within the Top 12 rankings. 'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good (Into Mischief) was declared off the GI Kentucky Derby trail with a left hind ankle chip, and two other highly rated contenders failed to fire in the GII Louisiana Derby. But new shooters have filled the vacuum–as always. The cadence quickens while the plot thickens inside the six-week mark to Derby 147.

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $351,940.
Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Holy Bull S.
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

There was plenty of upheaval in the standings behind Greatest Honour over the weekend while the Top 12 kingpin enjoyed a drama-free final tune-up prior to Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby. This Tapit-sired Courtlandt Farms homebred is a powerful, long-striding stayer who isn't afraid to face adversity square-on. After starting his career by closing admirably at shorter distances in deep New York MSW races, Greatest Honour dialed in to a winning groove at Gulfstream, pulling off the rare feat of closing to win from well off the tailgate in three straight 1 1/16-mile races (over a short-stretch configuration that tilts the advantage to speedsters). During that streak, Greatest Honour overcame dealing with a loose horse in his allowance win, uncoiled with a devastating stretch kick despite not being fully focused in the GIII Holy Bull S., then re-rallied in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (FOY) after getting clipped by a rival and losing momentum on the far turn. Trainer Shug McGaughey has been quietly confident this bay is a “longer-the-better” type of sophomore attempting to follow the same FOY/Florida Derby/Louisville path that McGaughey's only previous Kentucky Derby winner, Orb (Malibu Moon), took while winning all three of those races in 2013. The two main knocks against Greatest Honour are 1) his comparatively low Beyer Speed Figures (career best of 89, twice); and 2) his come-from-behind running style, which can be a hindrance in a 20-horse race like the Derby where closers are at the mercy of traffic.

2) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality is Blue Grass bound, and the selection of that Toyota-sponsored Grade II Keeneland stakes was the most logical among the next-race options that were being considered for this Godolphin homebred. This athletic gray with a streak of aggression earned his juvenile championship over that surface when winning the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. and the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile there last autumn; as of this writing, no other Top 12 contenders are committed to that race. Essential Quality holds more than a few Derby aces at this stage of the season: he scores highly in terms of tactical prowess, has posted top-notch speed numbers that keep arcing upward; he's won in the slop and has won at Churchill. Now that Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow), the 94-1 runner-up in the Juvenile, has broken through with a win in the Louisiana Derby (see below), I can no longer keep carping that Essential Quality didn't beat many horses of consequence in the Breeders' Cup (the second, third, and fifth horses have now all won stakes). But it's imperative to respect history, and the fact remains that only two of 36 Juvenile winners (5.5%) have gone on to win the Derby. Even if you widen that metric to include all the 1-2-3 finishers in the entire history of the Juvenile, the Breeders' Cup still rates as a very poor prognosticator of Derby success, with only four Derby winners emerging from those 108 in-the-money Juvenile finishers (3.7%).

3) CONCERT TOUR (c, Street Sense–Purse Strings, by Tapit)
O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $756,600.
Last Start: 1st GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 6
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

'TDN Rising Star' Concert Tour burst into the Top 12 after his 4 1/4-length thrashing of the GII Rebel S. field at Oaklawn Mar. 13. This Street Sense homebred for Gary and Mary West torqued out a convincing score thanks to deft piloting by jockey Joel Rosario. Concert Tour broke running and forced rail-drawn favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River (Hard Spun) to concede both the fence and the lead. Concert Tour maintained a margin of a length down the backstretch, then edged away under his own power while a clearly flustered Caddo River was fully driven and eventually cracked. No other closers were in it to win it, and this colt ran up the score while looking strong doing so. Based on the visually impressive nature of the victory, I thought Caddo River's 94 Beyer might have clocked in higher (it matched his last-out GII San Vicente S. win). But the effort was just the third-fastest of four 1 1/16 miles races at Oaklawn that afternoon, slower than two stakes and only 0.19 seconds faster than an allowance (all for older horses). Something to think about down the line: Rosario might have to choose between Concert Tour and Hot Rod Charlie, the other new shooter ranked right behind him at No. 4.

4) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales history: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110.

What do you get when you breed the dam of 2019 sprint champ Mitole to the wire-to-wire winner of the 2013 GI Preakness S.? The answer is Hot Rod Charlie, a determined son of Oxbow who solidified his status as a Top 12 contender with a 99-Beyer win in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. For everyone who thought his 94-1 near-miss in the Breeders' Cup was a fluke (that would include me), Saturday's gritty win should serve notice that this two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) reliably scores higher in tenacity than many of his peers at this point in the Triple Crown chase. Hot Rod Charlie broke running, and when jockey Joel Rosario sensed no other rivals were eager to assume command, he forged to the front with stalker Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) applying pressure from the outside. Five-sixteenths from the wire, Midnight Bourbon appeared primed to pounce but could not wrest away the lead, and Hot Rod Charlie kept outkicking him under judicious handling by Rosario (guiding home his nation-leading 11th graded stakes winner of 2021). “Working with him in the morning, he relaxes and you don't have to get him in the race,” Rosario said. “He handled the distance very well. Very impressive. With [Midnight Bourbon] coming on his outside, he really fought back. He doesn't have to be on the lead. He can do anything. He can be a little bit off the pace and will run the same way.”

5) SPIELBERG (c, Union Rags–Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, & Robert Masterson. B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,000,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 8-2-3-1, $413,200.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27.
Accomplishments: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity,
2nd GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity, 3rd GI American Pharoah S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 17.

Spielberg will go next in the Florida Derby, and that's an unusual move for trainer Bob Baffert. Despite being loaded with talented 3-year-olds every season and often having to shop for non-conflicting stakes to keep them apart, this Grade I prep never seems to be on Baffert's radar screen. In fact, Baffert has only started horses at Gulfstream on four occasions over the last four years, and each was in the GI Pegasus World Cup (two wins, a second, and a seventh). Spielberg, a $1-million KEESEP colt, is by Union Rags, who was a narrowly beaten third at 2-5 odds in the 2012 Florida Derby. Union Rags then ran seventh in the Kentucky Derby, skipped the Preakness, but won the GI Belmont S. by edging out the Baffert-trained Paynter (Awesome Again) by a neck. “He's a great-feeling horse,” Baffert said of Spielberg, who has eight starts worth of experience, but is currently parked at 16th on the qualifying list with 17 points. “He came out of [the GIII Southwest S.] in great shape,” Baffert added, explaining that Spielberg still needs to work on some gate issues. An awkward start in the slop at Oaklawn left this chestnut with far too much work to do, yet he still closed with purpose to get second behind juvenile champ Essential Quality.

6) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-2-0, $196,092. Last Start: 5th GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Caddo River looked uncomfortable every step of the trip en route to a subpar fifth at 6-5 odds in the GII Rebel S., but the result was so aberrational that he deserves reconsideration in the GI Arkansas Derby. This 'TDN Rising Star' will need to rebound big-time in that final Kentucky Derby prep because right now he's on the outside looking in, ranked 24th with only 10 qualifying points. Caddo River didn't seize the lead from his inside post and jockey Florent Geroux opted to concede the pacemaking to Concert Tour, which would have been fine except that this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable was rank and refused to settle. By the time Geroux finally let him go, Concert Tour had momentum and confidence while Caddo River boiled over as a result of self-inflicted duress three-sixteenths from the wire. Trainer Brad Cox said Caddo River emerged from that meltdown none the worse for wear; in the best-case scenario the colt perhaps got a decent schooling out of it. But it's now an open question as to whether Caddo River can round into a multi-dimensional threat, because the only two races he's won have been the ones in which he led at every call.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13; 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 3rd
GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66.

Midnight Bourbon ran hard and ran well when second in Saturday's Louisiana Derby, but his challenges were stoutly repulsed by convincing victor Hot Rod Charlie. Ranked second in qualifying points with 66, this $525,000 KEESEP colt by Tiznow has earned his way into a Derby starting spot, and he will bring some upside to Louisville that could make him an intriguing wiseguy play at odds in the 20-1 range. He is the only 3-year-old in the nation to have run three 93 or better Beyer figures since January (96 in each of his last two efforts), and you can't quibble with his stamina-centric foundation of seven races at a mile or longer. Where the argument in favor of Midnight Bourbon starts to erode, though, is when you consider that he hasn't truly evolved into a horse who can seal the deal under pressure in the stretch. His GIII Lecomte S. score was aided by being able to control a moderate tempo, and he twice had the lead between calls in the GII Risen Star S. but couldn't parlay that optimal positioning into a win.

8) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB}) O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $104,600.
Last Start: 1st GP allowance, Feb. 26.
Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 2.

By late March, you're hoping that your Derby contender already has his “learning curve” races behind him, and if that's the case for Known Agenda in the Florida Derby, look out. Discount this colt's third-place try (beaten nine lengths) in the sloppy GII Remsen S. and overlook his twilight-zone Tampa fifth in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. (double-digit lengths off the pace for the first time) and what do you see? How about a Curlin colt who beat No. 1 kingpin Greatest Honour in a New York MSW back in November and was later an 11-length Gulfstream winner Feb. 26 over the same track and distance as Saturday's Florida Derby? Now things could get interesting for this Todd Pletcher-trained $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG, who just celebrated his third birthday Mar. 22. The blinkers that Known Agenda added for last month's allowance-optional claiming blowout will stay, but the Lasix this colt got for the first time in that much-improved race won't be allowed in the Florida Derby because of new phase-out drug rules being implemented in Triple Crown prep races this spring.

 9) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $52,800.
Last Start: 1st Allowance/Opt. Clm., GP, Mar. 11
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence was the easiest kind of winner at 1-10 odds when gliding home under light encouragement in a Mar. 11 allowance-optional claimer over a one-turn mile at Gulfstream. This Godolphin homebred broke fluidly, conceded the lead while pressing the pace, engaged the leader on the far turn, then took over at the quarter pole and had no anxious moments in the stretch. From a progression standpoint the effort should serve as a useful tightener for a looming stakes engagement. Prevalence had spiked a fever and missed some February training, so he's on the prowl for qualifying points in order to earn a berth in Louisville. But questions remain as to whether the timing is right for a run for the roses: Prevalence may be 2-for-2, but he's yet to attempt two turns and will need to come off Lasix in order to face stakes company. It's also worth noting that he ran a slower Beyer number against winners than he did in his debut, regressing from an 87 to an 83.

 10) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch) O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc &
Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY); T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $287,763.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM,
Mar. 6. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

Helium's connections are forging an unconventional route to Louisville that won't include another prep race. That will leave an eight-week gap between this colt's 84-Beyer victory at 15-1 odds in the GII Tampa Bay Derby and the first Saturday in May. Jon Green, the manager of DJ Stable, told TDN the plan will be to train this $55,000 FTKOCT (and subsequently privately purchased) first-crop Ironicus colt at Palm Meadows, then ship to Churchill three weeks out from the Derby. “Is it perfect? It's not perfect. Are there risks? Yes. But we feel what's best for the horse is to give him the time and slowly peak him into the Kentucky Derby,” Green said. He added that the riding assignment for the 3-for-3 colt has yet to be decided (Tampa-based Jose Ferrer was Helium's most recent jockey while Emma-Jayne Wilson rode in the two Woodbine victories). “Jose did a great job on him,” said Green. But, “for the same reason riding Jose at Tampa Bay made sense, you have to have somebody who has the experience in big races and the experience at Churchill Downs. That's no disrespect to Jose, but I would think we would need to explore other opportunities.”

 11) RISK TAKING (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor) O-Klaravich Stables Inc; B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-0-0, $182,530
Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 6.
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Risk Taking was beaten nearly 10 lengths in each of his first two career tries, but his pedigree (by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Distorted Humor mare) suggested that neither six furlongs on the dirt nor yielding turf at 1 1/16 miles were going to be his sweet spot anyway. This $240,000 KEESEP bay woke up at 5-1 odds when tasked with nine furlongs on the main track at Aqueduct, then followed that win with another smart 1 1/8 mile-score in the GIII Withers S. That victory earned an 89 Beyer, and Risk Taking caught the eye by cruising along comfortably in stalk mode before quickening when cued to reel in a tiring pacemaker. He'll go two months between starts when attempting the GII Wood Memorial S. to decide if he's Derby-bound, but trying to get a read on this colt by scrutinizing his company lines doesn't yield much insight: nine rivals out of his two Aqueduct wins have now come back to make subsequent starts, and they've collectively managed only two next-out victories.

12) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $165,200.
Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Sham S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

Every Top 12 list should include at least one Cinderella-type horse, and this Protonico colt who hammered for relatively short money ($1,000 at OBSWIN and  $35,000 OBSOPN) is it. This Bob Baffert-trained overachiever owns two wins and also twice ran second behind now-injured Life Is Good, and he's been a very capable workmate in the mornings for some of the better-bred and more expensive sophomores in Baffert's deep stable. Baffert earlier this year likened Medina Spirit to his 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm, who was similarly not an overly expensive OBS-sold colt ($16,500 OBSAUG yearling, $100,000 OBSAPR). Baffert also expressed a belief that this colt is more effective pressing the pace rather than setting it, so look for that strategy in the Apr. 3 GI Santa Anita Derby.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Collaborate (Into Mischief): This $600,000 FTSAUG 'TDN Rising Star' just turned three Mar. 22 and will aim to cap his birthday week with an upset in Saturday's Florida Derby. A geared-down 12 1/2-length MSW blowout win going a one-turn mile Feb. 27 (90 Beyer) signals this tall, athletic, fluid mover could make the jump in class.

Defunded (Dialed In): Here's your Santa Anita Derby sleeper. Impressive, easy win (83 Beyer) in MSW sprint right after the GI Santa Anita Derby; with stablemate Life Is Good out, he could get tossed into the deep end of the pool by Baffert.

Hidden Stash (Constitution): Only one gaining in the stretch of two Tampa stakes; mildly intriguing for a potential wake-up if he goes in the Blue Grass and gets a hot pace to chase.

Mandaloun (Into Mischief): Trainer Cox said “We couldn't come up with any reasons for the dull performance” after this 'TDN Rising Star' was a beaten-fave no-show in the Louisiana Derby. “Right now I'll probably nominate him to the [Apr. 10 GIII Stonestreet] Lexington [S. at Keeneland] and we'll see. He was done at the half-mile pole, so I don't think the distance was the reason. He ran out of horse fairly quickly.”

Roman Centurian (Empire Maker): Second in three-way photo in GIII Lewis; 'TDN Rising Star' listed last week as “probable” for Wood Memorial.

Rombauer (Twirling Candy): Last-to-first winner of the El Camino Real Derby was initially aiming for the Wood in New York, but defection of Life Is Good means he'll now stay in SoCal to contest Santa Anita Derby.

Triple Tap (Tapit): 'TDN Rising Star' and half-bro to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah owns an eye-catching MSW score sprinting. Baffert said post-race that he didn't want to rush this colt, but now that soph star Life Is Good is out of Derby consideration, this potential phenom  might advance on the depth chart.

Weyburn (Pioneerof the Nile): It's not often that you see a 46-1 shot earn a 95 Beyer against stakes company like this colt did in the one-turn-mile GII Gotham S. A stretch-out to nine furlongs in the Wood will test his mettle.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 23 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $351,940.
Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Holy Bull S.
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

If Greatest Honour continues on his path to prominence, one of the more intriguing storylines of Derby 147 will be how Courtlandt Farms privately bought dam Tiffany's Honour in foal to Tapit after she RNA'd for $2.3 million in at Fasig-Tipton November in 2015. The foal she delivered was a striking individual, but the tale took a tragic twist when that colt was later killed in a paddock accident. Tiffany's Honour had already been bred back to War Front, but the following year Courtlandt mated her with Tapit again. The result is Greatest Honour, and you can read in a more detailed TDN column by colleague Chris McGrath how even as a yearling, Greatest Honour resonated as “the 'whole package'–a big, leggy, scopey, rangy horse; correct, well-made, good bone, everything.” Greatest Honour competed in a trio of “loaded” New York MSW races, then punched through to the elite level with a trio of emphatic victories (two of them stakes) at Gulfstream. All of those wins were at 1 1/16 miles, which trainer Shug McGuaghey has described as too short for this distance-centric deep closer. Yes, you can argue that Greatest Honour hasn't posted any elite-level Beyer Speed Figures to legitimize the visually impressive nature of his wins. That could be a concern moving forward, as no fewer than 27 performances by 3-year-olds on dirt so far in 2021 have earned Beyers above Greatest Honour's career-best 89. But it won't stop this powerhouse colt from going off legitimately favored in the GI Florida Derby.

2) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC; B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $274,200.
Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

Front-running phenom Life Is Good has now paired two daunting triple-digit Beyers (101 and 107). But the most astounding number associated with this 'TDN Rising Star' is the 2-1 favoritism he earned in Sunday's Pool 4 of the Derby Future Wager. This marked only the fourth time in 19 years that the pari-mutuel field of “All Other 3-Year-Olds” did not close as the March chalk. Saturday's win in the GII San Felipe S. was nothing short of scintillating. This $525,000 KEESEP purchase colt broke alertly from the rail, then bounded confidently onto the backstretch while intent on his work, but not keyed up about it. He maintained a three-length cushion through robust splits (:46.83 and 1:10.55), and when the closest three competitors all came under drives three-eighths out, jockey Mike Smith kept his mount in hand yet still managed to increase the gap. Life Is Good got momentarily distracted sailing solo through the stretch while drifting out (Smith said it was the video board) but won comfortably by eight lengths without ever having to give his all. Baffert acknowledged post-race his colt is “still green,” but quickly reminded that so, too, was 2020 Derby champ Authentic at this time last year. I'm still not quite ready to drape a blanket of roses around Life Is Good's broad, bay shoulders, though. He's raced just three times (twice against only four overmatched rivals), and none of the horses he's trounced is currently ranked as Top 12 contenders.

3) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality seamlessly bridged the gap between his juvenile championship season and his first start age three with one of those athletic, high-cruising, multiple-geared performances that have evolved as his hallmark over a 4-for-4 career. This Godolphin homebred colt's 4 1/4-length GIII Southwest S. score showed that racing in the slop is not a problem, and “EQ” has already won once (albeit sprinting) over the Churchill surface, which is another plus on his Derby progression checklist. He matches well with jockey Luis Saez, who very calmly executed an important lesson in patient rating when EQ was into the bit and initially wanted to pull about five furlongs out in the Southwest. Having said all of that, one box that remains unchecked is how EQ will fare once he gets his first taste of serious in-race adversity. In all three of his stakes wins, EQ's athleticism and tactical prowess have enabled Saez to pick outside positions well clear of potential trip trouble. And in no races has EQ had to deal with multiple waves of top-caliber closers. The four horses who chased him home for second and third in his two Grade I wins last autumn were 94-1, 52-1, 30-1 and 10-1, and none is a Top 12 contender.

4) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River will start favored in Saturday's GII Rebel S. based on his ability to quickly reach a high cruising speed and sustain it under pressure while never seeming to get anxious about it. Probables listed by Oaklawn suggest a likely field of eight, and the main competition for this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable figures to be Concert Tour (Street Sense), a fellow 'Rising Star' trained by Bob Baffert (who has won the Rebel seven times in its previous 12 runnings), and Keepmeinmind (Laoban), the deep-closing 80-Beyer victor of the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill. Trainer Brad Cox told Horse Racing Nation last week that among his three Derby candidates–No. 3 Essential Quality and No. 5 Mandaloun (Into Mischief) are the others–Caddo River is “probably the fastest of the three, just based off how they breeze.” Cox added that despite that breakaway nature, “Caddo River is definitely the most laid back of the three.” Caddo River's company line from his blowout win in the Jan. 22 Smarty Jones S. upticked slightly on Saturday when fourth-place Moonlite Strike (Liam's Map), came back to run third at 34-1 in the GII Tampa Bay Derby.

5) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-1, $351,252.
Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 3rd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52.

'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun's past performance cut alone is impressive enough to merit inclusion among the A-list sophomores. He's 3-for-4 with Beyers that have ascended in every race, and his only loss was a third-place try, beaten only a length, in his stakes and two-turn debut. But as the 4-to-5 fave in that GIII Lecomte S. loss, this Into Mischief homebred for Juddmonte couldn't seal the deal in an unfocused effort. Even after Mandaloun rebounded with a blinkers-on GII Risen Star S. win, jockey Florent Geroux said, “He's never given me his full potential.” Mandaloun will hit his third birthdate two days before his next expected start in the Mar. 20 GII Louisiana Derby, so maybe he's not that far off from stepping it up, maturity-wise. With 52 points, he's currently third on the qualifying list to start in Louisville, so it's not imperative that he produce an over-the-top effort in his final Kentucky Derby prep. Right now it might be best to consider Mandaloun the highest-ranked “work in progress” horse within the Top 12–with the expectation that his production needs to catch up to his potential within the next 7 1/2 weeks.

6) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-2-3-0, $187,700.
Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 24.

Proxy has never been worse than second in five lifetime outs, but you have to go back to a Dec. 19 N2L allowance win at Fair Grounds to find the performance that indicates how this colt is capable of controlling a race. Backed to 7-10 favoritism in a four-horse field, Proxy brushed the gate, confidently assumed command, conceded the lead between calls, then re-rallied to fight off a two-pronged stretch attack. Trainer Mike Stidham has been working this Tapit homebred in blinkers in preparation for the Louisiana Derby, with an eye on improving upon two runner-up efforts in which Proxy didn't always seem fully engaged. This colt's older sister, Micheline (Bernardini), another Godolphin homebred trained by Stidham, just won her first graded race on Saturday in the GII Hillsborough S. at Tampa. She had started her career 1-for-4, but after Stidham added blinkers late in her 2-year-old season, Micheline blossomed into a much-improved 4-for-9 streak, with three of those wins in grass stakes, plus a near-miss second against Grade I company at Keeneland. If the addition of blinkers has the same effect on little bro Proxy, look out.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-1-3, $261,420.
Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13.
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 3rd GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 26.

Midnight Bourbon resurfaces within the Top 12 after getting leap-frogged the last several weeks. The more I look at him, the more I now agree with trainer Steve Asmussen that he could be setting up nicely for a rebound race. When this $525,000 KEESEP colt wired the Lecomte S., he set a moderate, unchallenged pace and won with plenty in the tank, earning a Beyer that subsequently got revised upward from a 91 to a 93. When third next out in the Risen Star S., Midnight Bourbon twice led between calls (midway on the far turn and again at the eighth pole), then galloped out longer and stronger than the top two finishers. The imposingly long 1,346-foot stretch at Fair Grounds is often thought of as an advantage to closers. Yet the last three Louisiana Derbies have been won by speed-centric horses, including a wire job in last year's renewal, which was the first at the race's newly elongated distance of 1 3/16 miles. A son of Tiznow just now getting tight in his third start off the layoff for a trainer who has won this race three times? Sounds like a mild upset in the making.

8) SPIELBERG (c, Union Rags–Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, & Robert Masterson. B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,000,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 8-2-3-1, $413,200.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity,
2nd GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity, 3rd GI American Pharoah S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 17.

With eight starts under his belt, Spielberg is not your typical million-dollar yearling (KEESEP) that trainer Bob Baffert might nudge along the Derby trail with only a handful of well-spaced starts. After running second and third as a maiden against Grade I stakes company last September (favored in one of those races), this Union Rags colt is being given every opportunity to prove he belongs as a late bloomer at age three. His two wins were in a Del Mar MSW at a mile by a neck (in which the jock lost the whip) and in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose (when Spielberg was all out to reel in a 33-1 maiden). But the best race on his resume is his most recent effort, a second-place try in the Southwest S. behind champ Essential Quality. Racing in the slop for the first time, Spielberg was unprepared and ducked out at the break, then ran along well late to earn a credible second (despite no real chance to catch the winner because of how far behind he put himself at the start). Considering his sire won the 1 1/2-mile GI Belmont S., longer distances could be his launch pad.

9) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB}) O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $104,600.
Last Start: 1st GP allowance, Feb. 26.
Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 2.

This son of Curlin has the distinction of beating the current No. 1 kingpin on this list in an Aqueduct MSW back in November. But while Greatest Honour then went on a three-race win tear to vault him into the No. 1 spot, Known Agenda stalled for two starts before righting himself with a rip-roaring 11-length, blinkers-on win in a nine-furlong allowance-optional claimer at Gulfstream Feb. 26. Perhaps this $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG didn't care for the sealed and sloppy track when he got bumped off stride at the start of the GII Remsen S., and his 3-2 favored loss when fifth in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. might just be a case of not liking the sandy (and often quirky) Tampa track. But this chestnut attacked with metronomic precision after stalking a three-way duel in his Gulfstream comeback, unleashing a confident far-turn move before pouring it on in deep stretch. With two wins already at 1 1/8 miles, trainer Todd Pletcher is now considering the Florida Derby. But in addition to blinkers, Known Agenda also got a dose of Lasix for the first time in that allowance win, and he'll have to forego that medication in the Florida Derby as per new phase-out rules that now prohibit Lasix in the nation's top stakes.

10) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc & Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY);
T-Mark Casse. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $287,763. Sales history: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 6.
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

Not everything has gone as planned in trainer Mark Casse's preparations for Helium. Yet now this $55,000 FTKOCT (and subsequently privately purchased) first-crop colt by Ironicus is 3-for-3 after a 15-1 win in Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby (84 Beyer). After starting his career at Woodbine, a planned November stakes race there got cancelled. Casse then shipped Helium to Fair Grounds to try the Derby preps there, but Casse told DRF.com last week that the colt wrenched an ankle, so he sent him to his farm in Ocala. As Helium progressed, the Tampa Derby looked convenient from both a timing and close-to-home perspective. And now, for the fourth year in a row, that stakes has been won by a long shot. Helium was four wide while unhurried into the club turn, stalked midpack about six paths off the rail down the backstretch, then emerged from a far-turn logjam to get first run on a caving pacemaker. He had enough left to fight back when hooked in deep stretch by a fresh closer who had outside momentum, and deftly repulsed that bid. Although Helium is not currently a Triple Crown nominee, D J Stable racing manager Jon Green told TDN right after the win that this colt will be supplemented for $6,000 by the March deadline.

11) RISK TAKING (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor) O-Klaravich Stables Inc; B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 6.
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Risk Taking, who just celebrated his third birthdate Mar. 7,  is the only Top 12 horse currently wintering in New York. This $240,000 KEESEP Medaglia d'Oro colt also stands out as the rare Derby contender (along with Known Agenda) to boast two wins already at nine furlongs—a crucial distance that many Derby aspirants have yet to even attempt. His 89-Beyer Withers win was the result of a comfortable midpack stalking trip followed by a powerful move to collar a fading leader, and it gave the impression of more in the tank. Trainer Chad Brown has indicated he'll opt for two months between starts and aim for the GII Wood Memorial S. so he can keep Risk Taking at the distance and track over which the colt is 2-for-2.

12) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Allowance/optional claimer, GP, Mar. 11.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence will see action in Thursday's eighth race at Gulfstream, an allowance-optional claimer at a one-turn mile. He's a touch under the gun timing-wise after missing some February training because of a brief fever, but the plan for this Godolphin homebred still leaves room for a required start in a qualifying points stakes prep to try and garner entry into the Derby. This son of Medaglia d'Oro soared home by 8 1/2 lengths his Jan. 23 debut. That seven-furlong MSW appeared very deep on paper at the time, but six horses have now run back out of that race and only one was a next-out winner.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Concert Tour (Street Sense): This 2-for-2 Gary and Mary West homebred and 'TDN Rising Star' is on trainer Baffert's traveling team, shipping to Oaklawn for Saturday's Rebel S.

Hidden Stash (Constitution): One-run closer is a bit farther off the Derby radar than most, but this colt was the only one gaining in the stretch of the Davis, then mounted the only serious stretch challenge in the Tampa Derby after running off in the pre-race warmups.

Keepmeinmind (Laoban): Prepping for the Rebel S., jockey David Cohen said this late-running colt's most recent work featured a “nice, long gallop out, with nothing too rapid. I was very happy with the way he broke off. He has a tendency to get real tough. He did it really relaxed.”

Medina Spirit (Protonico): Baffert-trained overachiever, who hammered for just $1,000 at OBSWIN and $35,000 at OBSOPN, was second behind stablemate Life Is Good on Saturday but is clearly not in the same league. “He's a good horse and we needed to run first or second to continue on” with Derby preps, Baffert said, adding that the Santa Anita Derby of GI Arkansas Derby are possibilities.

Weyburn (Pioneerof the Nile): This 46-1 upsetter of the one-turn-mile GII Gotham S. racked up a big-league 95 Beyer. He's not Triple Crown nominated, but trainer Jimmy Jerkens said he will likely be supplemented for $6,000. No next-race commitment yet.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 9 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

The weather-related rescheduling of Oaklawn's GIII Southwest S. to the final weekend in February will cause some havoc for downstream prep races. The GII Rebel S. on Mar. 13 will now have only a two-week spacing within the Oaklawn series and Southwest participants who figured to run back in the Mar. 20 GII Louisiana Derby also might balk at having just three weeks off between preps and then six weeks until the GI Kentucky Derby itself. But our sport has gotten quite used to unexpected schedule switches over the last year, so the caravan will roll on with everyone making the necessary adjustments. Now let's dive into the rankings:

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

We've waited 3 1/2 months, so another small extended layoff will only add to the anticipation for the Southwest S. showdown between GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ Essential Quality and Jackie's Warrior, the fourth-place 9-10 fave in that race. This 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' by Tapit won back-to-back Grade I routes over Keeneland's short-stretch 1 1/16 miles configuration last autumn. His GI Breeders' Futurity S. win was a confident display of professional pace pressing, and this gray Godolphin homebred's late-closing Juvenile score earned the top two-turn Beyer Speed Figure (95) by any 2-year-old in 2020. Has any Kentucky Derby winner ever broken his maiden on the previous year's Derby undercard? I doubt it but could not ascertain that's never happened (input welcomed from readers with deeper historical resources). Yet the pandemic-delayed Derby of 2020 could produce that very scenario, as Essential Quality broke his maiden on the Sept. 5 undercard of the rescheduled Run for the Roses. Another bit of trivia: Did you know that 30 consecutive grays have gone to post and lost the Derby since the last gray, Giacomo, roared home first at 50-1 in 2005?

2) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Among the current Top 12 contenders, the trait that sets apart 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River is his demonstrated ability over four lifetime races to fluidly reach a high cruising speed and to carry it comfortably up to a mile. He stalked and withstood serious pace pressure in two well-stocked MSW sprints over seven furlongs in New York to start his learning curve. Then he broke out with a 9 1/2-length maiden score in a one-turn Churchill mile (83 Beyer) after carving out demanding splits of :22.38 and :44.59. Caddo River cudgeled the Smarty Jones S. crew by 10 1/4 lengths on opening day at Oaklawn (92 Beyer), and trainer Brad Cox said last Thursday this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable remains on track for the GII Rebel S. “Probably going to miss a work [because of the spate of unseasonable icy weather in Hot Springs]. But his race is not until, really, the middle of next month, so I don't feel like we're in any trouble as far as missing a race or anything.”

3) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-2, $175,240.
Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27 or GI Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Greatest Honour was back on the Payson Park work tab Saturday, two weeks after his smashing late run in the GIII Holy Bull S. stamped him as the horse to beat in the Florida preps. In an under-wraps maintenance breeze for both sophomores, trainer Shug McGaughey worked him to the inside of the 2-for-3 Creed (Honor Code), and both were credited with the same :50.60 (29/58) half-mile clocking even though Creed pulsed ahead by a neck at the wire. This Courtlandt Farms homebred by Tapit isn't light on experience. He has five lifetime races (including two at 1 1/16 miles and a MSW at nine furlongs) and has never been out of the money, so there's no big push to get him ready for the Feb. 27 GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. if the Mar. 27 GI Florida Derby ends up being a better fit, timing-wise. One shining aspect of Greatest Honour's past-performance cut is that twice now as a 3-year-old he's won closing from well off the tailgate at 1 1/16 miles, which at Gulfstream is configuration that usually plays to the advantage of early speed because the start is close to the turn and the finish is at the sixteenth pole.

4) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good retained his 7-1 favored status among the 23 individually ranked horses in Derby Future Wager Pool 3 that closed on Sunday (the “all others” field was 3-1). The West Coast's top-ranked Triple Crown threat breezed five furlongs at Santa Anita in 1:00.80 (4/33) Monday in preparation for a scheduled start in the Mar. 6 GII San Felipe S. Trainer Bob Baffert had noted after a bullet move the previous week that this $525,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay is “starting to mature and fill out; he just floats over the ground.” The winning prep sequence of the GIII Sham S. and San Felipe is the same blueprint Baffert used last spring to get Authentic ready for the Kentucky Derby. But, of course, Authentic's non-traditional path to the Derby winner's circle also included the benefit of four additional months of seasoning because the pandemic rescheduled the Derby from May to September. Baffert has said that, like Authentic at this stage of his career, Life Is Good needs to relax and learn to leverage his main weapon (raw speed) in a manner that will be effective over 10 furlongs. Can this colt manage to figure that out before the first Saturday in May? A schedule that includes the San Felipe and (presumably) just one nine-furlong Grade I (Apr. 3 Santa Anita Derby or Apr. 10 Arkansas Derby) leaves little room for error.

5) JACKIE'S WARRIOR (c, Maclean's Music–Unicorn Girl, by
A. P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $95,000 ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 12.

The Essential Quality-Jackie's Warrior rematch will be the closest thing we've had to a real rivalry so far this season. Yes, they've only met once previously, but that Breeders' Cup clash amounted to the season championship and neither has raced since, so the Southwest S. takes on more gravitas. I'm prognosticating an edge to “Jackie” over the speed-leaning Oaklawn surface at 1 1/16 miles, but longer distances later could swing the advantage in “EQ's” direction. How have horses from last year's Juvenile fared in their next races? So far eight have started, but only Keepmeinmind (Laoban) and Rombauer (Twirling Candy) were next-out winners; both ran Beyers lower than what they had earned in the Juvenile. In fact, six of the eight Juvenile run-backs failed to increase their Beyers the next time they started, which is not a promising sign of that race's strength. This $95,000 KEESEP colt was 4-for-4 in one-turn races at age two, and his immediate pedigree is a fascinating study in length-of-career contrasts: Sire Maclean's Music (like Jackie, also trained by Steve Asmussen) wired a Santa Anita sprint in his debut by 7 1/4 lengths. He earned a 114 Beyer—the highest debut Beyer ever—yet never raced again after being retired over complications related to a fractured splint bone. Dam Unicorn Girl, conversely, was a robust starter-allowance stalwart who raced 54 times with a 19-7-8 record over seven seasons on the mid-Atlantic circuit.

6) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Possible for GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

The Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (FOY) has been identified as a likely next-race target for 'Wowza!' maiden-breaker Prevalence, but trainer Brendan Walsh also noted the Godolphin homebred's team could call an audible and instead opt for a nine-furlong allowance/optional claimer two days earlier at Gulfstream as Plan B. This Medaglia d'Oro-sired 'TDN Rising Star' won his Jan. 23 debut by 8 1/2 geared-down lengths after sparring through a five-way fight for the lead in a “loaded” seven-furlong MSW (beating Justify's half-brother and a $1.05 million KEESEP buy). “I thought he was a good horse before he ran, but did I expect him to do what he did? Absolutely not, especially one of mine first time out,” Walsh said. “They generally improve, so I would like to think that this guy has some improvement in him. We won't get too carried away. We'll move on to the next one, and he'll be given plenty of chances to prove himself as we go forward … If we go to the FOY or the allowance race, he'll probably [work] Friday or Saturday and that should set him up right.”

7) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-1, $351,252.
Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: Possible for GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 3rd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52.

Mandaloun was facing a make-or-break point in his Derby campaign Saturday when favored to win the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox had said pre-race he was not wild about running back so soon off a subpar showing in the Jan. 16 GIII Lecomte S., but he felt the need to “push him along a little more.” Cox then equipped this Into Mischief-sired Juddmonte homebred with a one-inch blinker cup for the first time and the result was not only a 1 1/4-length victory but a nine-point jump in Mandaloun's career-best Beyer to a 98. Mandaloun was three wide on both turns while stalking in third, and he wore down two duelers and the running-in-spots closer Proxy (Tapit) to register a workmanlike victory. “He's always been a little funny down the lane,” said jockey Florent Geroux, citing the blinkers as a help. “He's never given me his full potential. We had the same kind of trip we had in the Lecomte, but when I pushed on the gas, he responded right away. Last time I feel like he wasn't giving me his best. He was a little more focused.” Cox said post-race the GII Louisiana Derby “is definitely going to be in play.”

8) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-2-3-0, $187,700.
Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: Possible for GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 24.

It's difficult to get a true read on the one-two performances by Mandaloun and Proxy in the Risen Star S. because of the drying-out nature of the Fair Grounds track on Saturday. Quick times and big winning margins dominated speed-favoring races early in the day, but the track appeared to slow down and play more evenly to horses rating from farther back by the time the stakes races rolled around (overall there were five dirt wire winners, two pace pressers, two stalkers, and two closers). Proxy was a midpack fourth at the rail for most of his trip under new rider John Velazquez, then seemed to lose steam when nudged along seven-sixteenths out. But the colt sparked back to interest when Johnny V. swung him widest for the drive, and although this Tapit homebred for Godolphin only ran along in spots down the lane, he continued his four-race trend of upping his Beyer number every time out, clocking in with a career-top 97. “He's inching in the right direction,” said trainer Michael Stidham.

9) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

If current prep-race schedules hold (and they seem to change every few days lately thanks to Mother Nature), this $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt figures to be the last horse among the Top 12 to debut at age three if he goes in the GIII Gotham S. Mar. 6. Highly Motivated hasn't raced since winning the Nyquist S. on the Breeders' Cup undercard on Nov. 6, meaning he'll have a 121-day gap between starts. He set a track record for 6 1/2 furlongs in what later turned out to be a key race (three next-out winners), but that “record” designation has to be considered in the context of five other Keeneland main-track records also being established on a speed-centric surface; plus Keeneland's small sample of main-track records only dates to the autumn of 2014, when synthetic got changed back to dirt. Assuming Highly Motivated runs well enough in his next prep to remain on the Derby trail, he's still going to be challenged by having only one (likely) true route race under his belt by the time May 1 arrives, because the Gotham is a one-turn mile.

10) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $105,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Sham S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

As the least expensive Top 12 candidate ($1,000 OBSWIN, $35,000 OBSOPN), this Protonico colt out of a Brilliant Speed mare has earned underdog rooting status for the tenacious way he took pressure on the lead through swift fractions in the GIII Lewis S., then never let another horse get by him in a three-way, length-of-stretch fight that had him a neck in front at the wire. Private clocker and bloodstock agent Gary Young, who purchased the Florida-bred for owner Amr Zedan, told the Santa Anita notes team that Medina Sprit “was OK, but he wasn't going to be the sales topper or anything … He had worked three-eighths in :33 flat which was decent time, but he had a nice rhythm and a stride like a route horse.” Young added that prior to the colt's debut win at Los Alamitos in December, he was “outworking more expensive and better-bred horses and definitely holding his own.” Young said Medina Spirit's connections are still mulling whether to plot a one- or two-prep race plan to get to the Derby, but he also emphasized that the colt is likely more effective chasing a target (like in his Sham S. second behind Life Is Good) rather than setting the pace like he did in the Lewis.

11) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban–Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity,
3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 18.

Keepmeinmind was entered but scratched out of the Risen Star S. three days prior to last Saturday's Fair Grounds race, but trainer Robertino Diodoro's desire to “run him out of his own stall” at Oaklawn has yet to come to fruition because the date of the Southwest has now been moved three times. This is an off-the-pace specialist (and a grandson of stay-all-day Victory Gallop) who might not fire his best shot going 1 1/16 miles over a speed-friendly surface like Oaklawn's, but he bears watching for the day down the road when he can more comfortably uncoil over a longer distance–ideally with several early-pace types setting up the fractions to his advantage.

12) CANDY MAN ROCKET (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Kenny Lane, by Forestry)
O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc; B-R S Evans (KY). T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $144,824.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Candy Man Rocket's 85-Beyer win in the GIII Davis S. Feb. 6 represented a decent step up for a colt who had just broken his maiden in start number two and had never faced winners nor raced around two turns. But the fact that he's trained by the very patient but realistic Bill Mott is what truly edges him into this week's Top 12, because Mott doesn't bother with the Derby trail if he doesn't believe his horses truly belong. This colt RNA'd for $190,000 (KEENOV) and $70,000 (KEESEP) prior to hammering for $250,000 (OBSAPR), and his connections acknowledged in a detailed TDN profile last week that Candy Man Rocket still needed seasoning when he debuted seventh at Churchill Nov. 22. But this colt sure was ready for prime time in start number two, a 9 1/4-length Gulfstream blowout, and in the Davis he got first run at a pacemaker who set legit splits. Mott said the GII Tampa Bay Derby is a possibility, although owner Frank Fletcher is an Arkansas native and has indicated he wouldn't mind seeing his top soph race at Oaklawn.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Concert Tour (Street Sense): 'TDN Rising Star' scored a 94-Beyer stalking win in the GII San Vicente, but this 2-5 fave had a bit more tussle than expected getting by stablemate Freedom Fighter (Violence) in the stretch.

Dream Shake (Twirling Candy): You don't see too many 20-1 winning firsters earning 'TDN Rising Star' status. Big confident march past leaders in 96 Beyer Santa Anita romp. But that race did feature a hot 3-5 firster who never fired, so the quality of that field is in question until we see more from this intriguing prospect.

Fire At Will (Declaration of War): GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf victor will make 2021 debut on dirt in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. “He won on [the main track] at Saratoga, even though it was muddy and against a short field,” trainer Mike Maker said.

Freedom Fighter (Violence): Ran a better race than winning 2-5 stablemate Concert Tour when second in the San Vicente S Feb. 6. Fast from gate, took pace heat, wouldn't quit in stretch. Gotham S. at Aqueduct likely next.

Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow): Slips out of the Top 12 after so-so third in Risen Star. Trainer Steve Asmussen, however, believes third time off layoff will be the charm for this $525,000 KEESEP colt in the Louisiana Derby.

Risk Taking (Medaglia d'Oro): Advanced when ready off a comfortable midpack stalk to reel in tiring pacemaker in 89-Beyer GIII Withers over nine furlongs.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for February 17 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit—Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

The connections of 3-for-3 ‘TDN Rising Star’ Essential Quality are mapping out a campaign for the presumptive divisional champ that could end up with the high-energy gray prepping in the GII Louisiana Derby prior to taking aim at the GI Kentucky Derby. But the first race of this Tapit colt’s sophomore season is still a moving target. After winning the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, “we didn’t give him time off but we backed off on him and he seems to have responded well,” trainer Brad Cox said. “He was really good [in his early January training] and we just need to keep him that way until the middle of February.” Cox said the nine-furlong GII Risen Star S. Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds is “on the table,” as is the 1 1/16 miles GIII Southwest S. Feb. 15 at Oaklawn. “The one thing about the Fair Grounds race is it’s a lot more [Derby qualifying] points, so that makes it a little more attractive. But the distance is the question; do we want to go a mile and an eighth off not having a race in three months?” Cox added that even if the Godolphin homebred does ship from New Orleans to race at Hot Springs, “I’m 99% sure that he would go back to Fair Grounds, and the Louisiana Derby would be in play after that.”

2) LIKEABLE (c, Frosted–Dashing Debby, by Medaglia d’Oro)
O-Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable & Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-0, $49,050.
Last Start: 13th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Likeable, a $350,000 KEESEP colt, owns a dazzling 8 1/2-length MSW score at Belmont last September sandwiched by a much-better-than-it-looks runner-up debut at Saratoga and a “too fast to last” effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If trainer Todd Pletcher can hone this colt’s sharp, natural gate speed into a more efficient version of what we saw from Likeable at age two, look out. Dam Dashing Debby (Medaglia d’Oro) won her debut sprinting by 10 1/4 lengths in a Calder stake back in 2009 and was acquired shortly thereafter by Stonestreet Stables, right on the heels of another Medaglia d’Oro filly acquired by Stonestreet–eventual champ Rachel Alexandra. Since then, Dashing Debby has produced two black-type winners–one sprinting on dirt and the other around two turns on grass–plus a yearling colt by Speightstown who hammered for $800,000 at the 2020 KEESEP sale. Likeable’s MGISW sire Frosted figures to add depth and bottom to the pedigree equation, and this colt is now breezing up to five furlongs at Palm Beach Downs in prep for his sophomore unveiling.

3) PRIME FACTOR (c, Quality Road–Haylie Brae, by Bernardini)
O-CHC Inc. & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Two Hearts Farm LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $900,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $24,000.
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Last Start: 1st Msw, GP, Dec. 12
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

The most authoritative maiden win among the Top 12? That would belong to Prime Factor, a $900,000 KEESEP Quality Road colt who ran roughshod over what looked like a pretty decent crew Dec. 12 at Gulfstream, earning a ‘TDN Rising Star’ distinction. This Todd Pletcher trainee widened under wraps to bowl home by 8 3/4 lengths in a 1:10.38 clocking (85 Beyer) that went .08 seconds faster than the only other six-furlong race on the card, the GIII Sugar Swirl S. for older female sprinters. The fourth-place finisher from that race, Broadway (Quality Road), a $500,000 FTSAUG buy, won a Tampa MSW route race this past Friday at 4-5 odds, while the second- and third-place runners both came back to run third in their respective races Saturday at Gulfstream. Longer distances appear to be Prime Factor’s sweet spot based on his pedigree. He’s out of a Bernardini mare, and second dam Dance Swiftly is a full-sister to Canadian Horse of the Year and U.S. Eclipse Award winner Dance Smartly, winner of the 1991 GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

4) JACKIE’S WARRIOR (c, Maclean’s Music—Unicorn Girl, by A. P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $95,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 12.

With blowout speed and an aura of being in a different league than his overmatched foes, Jackie’s Warrior dominated the division last summer through early autumn. This $95,000 KEESEP Maclean’s Music colt appeared primed to pounce in the Breeders’ Cup, yet even though he carved out a no-excuse stalking trip behind the Juvenile’s fastest opening quarter since 2014 and its fastest half-mile split since 2003 and got first run at the wilting leaders a quarter mile from the short-stretch finish, “Jackie” couldn’t sustain his bid in deep stretch. He’s now two breezes into his return, but even though he’s based at Fair Grounds, trainer Steve Asmussen told the Blood-Horse last week that the Oaklawn preps might be this colt’s path to Louisville, based on the lucrative purses, qualifying points, and “pace being as effective as it is at Oaklawn.” The connections of No. 1-ranked Essential Quality are also considering the Feb. 15 Southwest S. for that colt’s 2021 debut, potentially setting up an early season showdown of two of the division’s heaviest hitters.

5) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $67,700.
Last Start: 1st Alw, FG, Dec. 19
Next Start: GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Proxy should be a pace component in Saturday’s GIII Lecomte S., and this Tapit homebred for Godolphin has the unique advantage of already having won twice around two turns at this Fair Grounds meet. Even though his Dec. 19 N2L allowance win came only against three other rivals and earned a so-so 76 Beyer, Proxy was tag-team pressured by every horse in the race at some point and appeared emboldened when mixing it up in close quarters in his stretch fight. Jockey Angel Suarez recently suffered a broken femur, so he’s off Proxy in favor of Mitchell Murrill, whose only lifetime graded stakes victory was at this distance over this track. Proxy will also be going back off Lasix (he raced on Lasix for both of his Fair Grounds wins, but not in his runner-up Monmouth debut in October, in which he was beaten only by a neck). “He’s like a big, immature kid who is still learning with racing,” trainer Michael Stidham said. “Last time when he won, he was a little green about switching leads coming down the lane, but once he leveled off, he drew away at the end, so we were pleased with that.”

6) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief– Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., Jan. 2, Santa Anita
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

‘TDN Rising Star’ Life Is Good won the Jan. 2 GII Sham S. in wire-to-wire fashion, ticking the two-turn box on his progression checklist. This $525,000 KEESEP colt by Into Mischief earned a 101 Beyer for clocking a mile in 1:36.63, pulsing around the track largely unopposed though quarter-mile splits of :23.56, :23.11, :23.99 and :25.97. The 1-5 fave broke inward at the start and bumped mildly with a rival, then cleared the field from the outermost five hole while giving up four paths of real estate on the turn, bounding along by his lonesome onto the backstretch. Life Is Good remained hand-ridden until deep stretch when 9-1 stablemate Medina Spirit (Protonico) closed the gap while under a vigorous drive, and Life Is Good drifted out while asked for a more by Mike Smith, who showed (but did not utilize) the whip. “I always tell Mike to try and save something,” Baffert said post-race. “Life Is Good wasn’t as tired as I thought he could have been. He needs to learn to relax a little bit better, but he will.” Look for him in about two months, most likely in the Mar. 6 GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita.

7) SPEAKER’S CORNER (c, Street Sense–Tyburn Brook, by Bernardini)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-William Mott. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $43,290.
Last Start: 1st Mdn, Belmont, Oct. 11
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Speaker’s Corner, a Godolphin homebred by Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare (same cross as Godolphin’s highly-rated Maxfield) competed in two of the stronger MSWs at Saratoga and Belmont last season. This colt’s debut on closing day at the Spa was a green third, but both Speaker’s Corner and the runner-up came back to win. And this colt’s maiden-breaking tally despite minor trip trouble over seven furlongs at Belmont also has the makings of a key race, featuring sharp splits and a reeling in of a next-out winner–Caddo River (Hard Spun)–who earned ‘TDN Rising Star’ status upon his own graduation (the eighth-place finisher from that MSW also came back to win). With a sire who won the 2007 Derby and a second dam who scored in the 2006 GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff, the colt’s pedigree has a longer-the-better-slant.

8) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 wlg ’18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Every year there’s an undercard 2-year-old winner from Breeders’ Cup weekend whose buzz carries over, and this season Highly Motivated qualifies as that colt. This Into Mischief bay won the Nyquist S. to run his record to 2-for-3 (all sprints), and three rivals who finished behind him have since come back to win. Klaravich Stable bred Highly Motivated after racing his Chad Brown-trained dam, the seven-furlong black-type stakes winner Strong Incentive. But this colt went through the auction ring for $240,000 at KEENOV because Klaravich was buying out a partner who co-owned the weanling. Authentic’s decisive wins in the Derby and GI Breeders’ Cup Classic last season certainly helped to answer questions about the ability for Into Mischief’s progeny to carry speed up to 10 furlongs. But this colt’s dam-sire, Warrior’s Reward, made his mark as a sprinter, registering his lone stakes win at seven furlongs in the 2010 GI Carter H.

9) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $91,252.
Last Start: 1st Alw, CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

‘TDN Rising Star’ Mandaloun will start favored in Saturday’s Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. That will be the route debut for this Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief out of an Empire Maker mare. “We’ve always felt he was cut out to be a two-turn horse based on his physical makeup and how he trains,” trainer Brad Cox said. “It shows how much talent he’s got to be able to win his first two races at sprint distances, and now we’re going to do what we’ve thought he’s wanted to do all along, and that’s go long.” Mandaloun drew post 10 with no shortage of speed to his inside, which could end up being a tactical advantage if he seeks a stalking trip like in his previous two wins. Mandaloun needed (and responded to) a rousing ride from the five-sixteenths pole home in his 82-Beyer Churchill allowance score.

10) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $76,092.
Last Start: 1st Msw, CD, Nov. 15
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Cox confirmed Thursday that ‘TDN Rising Star’ Caddo River will make his debut at two turns in Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones S., the track’s Jan. 22 opening-day feature. This Hard Spun colt demonstrated ability to withstand serious pace pressure while forcing the issue on or near the lead against top-notch maiden fields at Saratoga and Belmont prior to punching through in a Churchill MSW that he commandeered by 9 1/2 lengths. Even though Caddo River has already won at the eight-furlong distance of the Smarty Jones, he’ll have to adapt from the one-turn mile configuration that he relished at Churchill to a short-stretch finish around two bends at Oaklawn, where mile races start and end at the sixteenth pole. Well-bet, wire-to-wire horses have won each of the last three editions of the Smarty Jones–but none of them went on to make an impact on the Derby trail. Caddo River’s speed should stand him in good stead at Oaklawn. But he’s a rangy, leggy colt, and short-stretch route races are often won by horses built more like compact cruisers (taller, lankier striders don’t have that extra sixteenth in the straight to fully uncoil).

11) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban—Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, 3rd GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 18.

Keepmeinmind worked a half-mile in :50.20 Wednesday at Oaklawn (39/94) under regular rider David Cohen, his first breeze since rallying from last to win the GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes as a maiden Nov. 28. “Very easy half, with a nice long gallop out,” Cohen said post-work. “He seemed to have matured since his last race.” Breaking a maiden in a stakes must run in the family: His sire, Laoban, wired the 2016 GII Jim Dandy S. at 27-1 odds for his only career win. Prior to his first career victory, Keepmeinmind ran second then third behind No. 1-ranked Essential Quality in the GI Breeders’ Futurity S. and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, beaten only 5 1/4 combined lengths. You’ve heard that stat about the 36 winners of the Juvenile scoring in only two Kentucky Derbies? Second- and third-place Juvenile horses don’t fare any better. Those 72 placings have accounted for only one Derby win, with Spend A Buck (third in the inaugural Juvenile back in 1984) the lone exception.

12) KING FURY (c, Curlin–Taris, by Flatter)
O-Fern Circle Stables & Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. B-Heider Family Stables LLC (Ky). T-Ken McPeek. Sales history: $950,000 yrl ’19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-0-0, $142,739.
Last Start: 5th GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: 1st Street Sense S.
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

With a foaling date of Jan. 12, King Fury is the only member of the Top 12 to reach his actual third birthdate. This $950,000 FTSAUG yearling by Curlin is a smooth mover with an ample (five races at 1 1/16 miles) foundation of two-turn experience. His form, on paper at least, lost a bit of shine with off-the-board finishes in the Juvenile and Kentucky Jockey Club S. But he had minor trip trouble when wheeling back into the Breeders’ Cup on just 12 days between starts and his blinkers-on experiment as a frontrunner under the lights Nov. 28 might have been a tactical aberration. Still plenty of upside here, and a 2-for-3 record at Churchill won’t hurt as the first Saturday in May comes more clearly into focus.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Brooklyn Strong (Wicked Strong): This 5,000 OBSAPR gelding upset the GII Remsen S. over nine furlongs and will aim for repeat at same distance in the Feb 6 GIII Withers S.

Capo Kane (Street Sense): Speed in hand to top of stretch then responded when roused (although a touch green) in his 84-Beyer Jerome S. score. Now aims for Withers S.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow): Half to 2019 sprint champ Mitole ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) pointed toward GIII Lewis S. Jan. 30 off 94-1 second behind Essential Quality in the Juvenile.

Manor House (Upstart): Saturday’s Lecomte is glutted with speed, but this colt’s debut wiring of a Laurel MSW by 12 ¼ lengths still stands out in the past performances (76 Beyer; fourth-place horse from that race came back to win). This colt is cross-entered in a 1x/optional claimer earlier on Saturday’s Fair Grounds card and could opt for that spot instead.

Mutasaabeq (Into Mischief): Rallied from long way last to win GII Bourbon S. on turf, then no-impact 10th in GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Change of surface and tactics when winning the Jan. 2 Mucho Macho Man S. earns this colt another likely stakes date on dirt.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 12 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

The Top 10…

1) TIZ THE LAW (c, Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
O-Sackatoga Stable. B-Twin Creeks Farm (NY). T-Barclay Tagg. Sales History: $110,000 yrl ’18 FTNAUG. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 7-6-0-1, $2,015,300.
Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20, 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 28, 1st GI Champagne S., 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 1, 3rd GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 30. Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 372.

Tiz the Law is a Kentucky Derby standout no matter how you parse his credentials. He’s 6-for-7 lifetime and undefeated in four starts at age three. He’s thrice run Beyer Speed Figures at or above the elite-level 100 mark. He’s already won at the Derby distance of 10 furlongs and that victory was a resounding trouncing of the GI Runhappy Travers S. field at Saratoga. Most importantly, his progression into a mature, confident, aggressor who carries himself with swagger is evident in the visually impressive nature of his races. This $110,000 SARAUG Constitution colt makes his own breaks and controls the tempo of his races from an imposing stalking position, and he’s never been in a serious stretch fight beyond the eighth pole while pasting the competition by open lengths (never fewer than three). Detractors will point to the fact that his only career loss came over the Churchill Downs surface, but that argument is a reach. Tiz created his own trouble in that third-place try in a sea of slop last November in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., and he’s long since advanced in his development into a colt who relishes throttling his competition. Post 17 shouldn’t be a problem. Tiz is an alert breaker who knows how to seize prime early positioning and he’ll have a long run through the home straight to settle just behind the anticipated speed. The only reason not to bet on him will be the prohibitive price. Tiz the Law has had an amazingly long run of luck, maintaining his form for well over a year for an old-school trainer and ownership group that underscores fun and doing right by their horses, so he’s an easy favorite to root for.

2) HONOR A.P. (r, Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
O-C R K Stable LLC. B-George Krikorian (KY). T-John Shirreffs. Sales History: $850,000 yrl ’18 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-3-0, $382,200.
Last Start: 2nd Shared Belief S., DMR, Aug. 1
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby June 6, 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 140.

This $850,000 FTSAUG Honor Code ridgling figures to be a far better contender in the Derby than he appeared in his not-fully-cranked second at 1-5 odds when shortening up to 1 1/16 miles in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar. He has a long stride, a keen mind and an unruffled demeanor, and the projected (more up-tempo) pace dynamic of the Derby figures to suit both his pedigree and target-oriented running style. For a launching-off point for what Honor A.P. might be capable of on Saturday, reference his 102-Beyer GI Santa Anita Derby score on June 6, in which he methodically wore down the pacemakers and fluidly covered ground like he wanted more of it. Honor A.P. does take a while to torque up to his main attacking gear, but he’s also been described by trainer John Shirreffs as being light on his feet, which is an attribute that is usually a necessity in any 18-horse scrum.

3) KING GUILLERMO (c, Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band)
O-Victoria’s Ranch. B-Carhue Investments, Grouseridge Ltd. & Marengo Investments (KY). T-Juan Avila. Sales History: $90,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $150,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-1-1, $340,350.
Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby, OP, May 2
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, 3rd Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 90.

King Guillermo’s 127-day layoff quest to win the Derby doesn’t strike me as outlandish as it might seem to some traditionalists. This colt was intentionally kept out of hard training in the early part of summer after running back-to-back impressive races when winning the GII Tampa Bay Derby and grinding out a gutsy second in the faster division of the split GI Arkansas Derby. Having plenty of down time was always the prescribed plan for this Uncle Mo bay ($90,000 RNA KEESEP, $150,000 OBSAPR), who runs best when fresh. The filly Regret won the 1915 Derby off a 259-day break, and Sir Barton won the 1919 Derby off a 238-day rest. Since 1929, the longest winning layoff has been 42 days, equaled by Needles in 1956 and Animal Kingdom in 2011. What is a little concerning is that trainer Juan Carlos Avila has been nursing a tepid 1-for-25 record over the past two months. And jockey Samy Camacho is booked on no other Derby day mounts at Churchill, which means that the rookie Derby rider will be sitting in the jocks’ room for hours before his big-race debut without the benefit of being able to ride over the track and (more importantly) focus on another race as a distraction from the pressure. Still, having said all of that, King Guillermo’s 20-1 morning line represents considerable value if you can actually snag that price.

4) THOUSAND WORDS (c, Pioneerof the Nile—Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy) O-Albaugh Family Stables & Spendthrift Farm. B-Hardacre Farm (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 7-4-1-0, $327,000.
Last Start: 1st Shared Belief S., DMR, Aug. 1
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 7, 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Feb. 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 83.

In a Derby prep season extended to 10 months because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Thousand Words is the epitome of a comebacking contender. He was the No.1 Derby prospect on this list from December through early March, then slid off the grid for three starts between March and July (in two of those races he just looked uninterested, and in the sloppy Oaklawn S. he clearly didn’t like taking wet kickback). But this million-dollar KEESEP colt’s 104-Beyer tally in the Shared Belief S. over Honor A.P. stamped him as a resurgent player for a trainer known to produce Derby winners (even when they’re not favorites). Thousand Words doesn’t resonate as a “Wow!” horse, but one talent that is decidedly in his favor is his oft-demonstrated ability to fight through tenacious early pace battles while still being able to repulse serious stretch challenges. Not too many horses in this year’s Derby field have demonstrated that skill, and it will suit this Pioneerof the Nile colt well if he can handle the stretch to 10 furlongs.

5) ENFORCEABLE (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
O-John Oxley. B-Clearsky Farm (KY). T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $775,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP,
10-2-2-2, $367,150.
Last Start: 4th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 18; 3rd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, Oct. 5, 2nd GII Risen Star S. Div. 1, FG, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 43.

Enforceable is the long-shot play of the Derby, and a must inclusion for all exotics. Admittedly, it’s tough to make a case for him based on results on paper alone. This $775,000 KEESEP RNA was fifth in the GII Louisiana Derby, then ran fourth in the July 11 GII Toyota Blue Grass S., his lone summer prep for Louisville. But he was wide on both turns in the Blue Grass behind dominant one-two finishers who both came back to win stakes in impressive fashion, and this Mark Casse trainee has now had six weeks of conditioning over the Churchill surface. Knowing that he’s coming in fresh with run-all-day bloodlines (by Tapit out of a Dixie Union mare), dismiss Enforceable at your own peril. He is going to fly under the radar betting wise, and he is highly likely to be flying by some of the more stamina-challenged pacemakers late in the lane on Saturday.

6) AUTHENTIC (c, Into Mischief–Flawless, by Mr. Greeley)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Fred Hertrich III, John D. Fielding & Golconda Stables. B-Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-1-0, $1,011,200.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG.com Haskell Invitational S., MTH, July 18.
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7; 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 4, 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, June 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 200.

Considering that more preps were added to the calendar to qualify for the Derby, it’s a bit odd that only three entrants in this 18-horse field–Tiz the Law, Thousand Words and Authentic–are sporting victories in their last races. This $350,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay has high-level pace-pressing ability, and his outermost gate draw makes it a near-cinch that he’ll be sent for speed to attain prominent positioning. But it’s not guaranteed that Authentic is going to abide by the strategic wishes of new jockey John Velazquez and trainer Bob Baffert. He’s had adverse issues leaving the starting stalls in three of his five races and his stretch antics by now are well-documented, underscored by his caving-then-saving final eighth in the GI TVG.com Haskell S. in which Authentic nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by losing focus. Ability beyond nine furlongs remains an open question (because having multiple Grade II-winning sprinter Mr. Greeley as his dam-sire does give Authentic’s pedigree a short-distance slant). But it’s also not difficult to envision a scenario in which the Churchill strip comes up speed-favoring and Authentic gets bold on a loose lead.

7) SOLE VOLANTE (g, Karakontie {Jpn}—Light Blow, by Kingmambo)
O-Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone & Limelight Stables Corp. B-Flaxman Holdings Limited (KY). T-Patrick Biancone. Sales History: $6,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $20,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-4-1-1, $323,310.
Last Start: 6th GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 8, 1st Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30, 2nd GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 7.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

Sole Volante has more upside than people might perceive coming into the Derby. This $6,000 KEESEP and $20,000 OBSAPR Karakontie pinhook will be firing fresh (78-day respite) after reportedly not liking the track in the Belmont S., and trainer Patrick Biancone backed this gelding off from deep-summer preps to instead leg up with a series of turf works at Palm Meadows in Florida. Sole Volante has already run four 92-plus Beyers on dirt, and it’s crucial to point out that he earned those numbers over two tracks–Gulfstream and Tampa–that are historically not conducive to off-the-tailgate running styles like his. This is a light-bodied stayer who could be in the hunt well into the final furlong of the Derby. Sole Volante’s dam only won once, but it was over 14 furlongs in England.

8) NECKER ISLAND (c, Hard Spun—Jenny’s Rocket, by Mr. Greeley) O-Raymond Daniels, Wayne Scherr & Will Harbut Racing LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Chris Hartman. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 10-2-0-3, $199,730.
Last Start: 3rd Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 1.
Accomplishments include: 3rd GIII Indiana Derby, IND, July 8.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

Necker Island, a $100,000 claim three starts back, owns Churchill wins over both a fast and a sloppy surface, but those two victories were last autumn at the start of his career when one-turn miles and seven-furlong sprints seemed to be his sweet spot. Although this Hard Spun colt hasn’t been able to break past the 86-87 Beyer plateau his last four starts, he was facing some talented winners in Art Collector (Bernardini) and Maxfield (Street Sense). Necker Island’s third in the GIII Indiana Derby is actually quite a bit more impressive than it appears on paper: he stumbled at the break, got hooked wide on both turns, then got first run at the pacemaker before hanging in admirably behind a winner who shaved 0.17 seconds off the nine-furlong track record.

9) NY TRAFFIC (c, Cross Traffic–Mamie Reilly, by Graeme Hall)
O-John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing & Paul Braverman. B-Brian Culnan (NY). T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $27,000 RNA 2yo ’19 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 9-2-3-2, $565,470.
Last Start: 2nd GI TVG.com Haskell Invitational S., MTH, July 18
Accomplishments Include: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 21, 2nd GIII Matt Winn S., CD, May 23, 3rd GII Risen Star S. Div. 2, FG, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110.

In four graded stakes preps this season, the 2-for-9 Ny Traffic has run three seconds and a third, and he hasn’t been beaten by more than 1 1/2 lengths in any of those efforts. But this $27,000 EASMAY Cross Traffic gray hasn’t won a stakes yet, and his only two lifetime wins were a Parx MSW and a Gulfstream allowance/optional claimer. Yet he has a hard-trying, overachieving way of going, and he was barely nosed out of a  Haskell S. upset by 3-5 fave Authentic. This colt has experience at nine furlongs (twice) and 1 3/16 miles, and generally outruns his odds. Is he the “sleeper” New York-bred in the Derby with fellow Empire Stater Tiz the Law drawing all the attention and betting action?

10) MAX PLAYER (c, Honor Code—Fools in Love, by Not For Love)
O-George E. Hall & SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp. B-K&G Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $150,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 5-2-1-2, $373,500.
Last Start: 3rd GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 1, 3rd GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

This first-crop Honor Code colt ($150,000 KEESEP RNA) was a commendable third in both the Belmont S. and the Travers S., but he wasn’t in the same league as dominant winner Tiz the Law in either contest. We still haven’t seen a big breakout race from this slow-but-steady learner, and his connections have gambled on a trainer change for the Derby. Steve Asmussen took over from Linda Rice after the Travers, and while that’s probably too short a time window for a new conditioning regimen to produce immediate results, Max might awaken under the aggressive handling of new jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., who rides quite a bit more assertively than the strong-finishing, but more patient Joel Rosario.

The Rest of the Field…

11) SOUTH BEND (c, Algorithms—Sandra’s Rose, by Old Trieste) O-Gary Barber, Wachtel Stable, Peter Deutsch & Pantofel Stable LLC; B-Highclere Inc (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales History: $47,000 RNA Ylg ’18 FTKJUL; $70,000 2yo ’19 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 12-3-2-2, $390,114.
Last Start: 4th GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Equineline PPs.

Trainer Bill Mott saddled 65-1 Country House (Lookin At Luck) in the Derby last year and ended up getting moved up from second to win via DQ. This year his trainee South Bend figures to be in the same stratospheric odds range. This $70,000 OBSMAR Algorithms bay (RNA’d for $47,000 at FKTJUL) began his career a perfect three-for-three but hasn’t won since. At 12 starts, he’s the most experienced starter in this year’s edition. He rated from last to get fourth in the Travers S. (first start under Mott’s care), so he already has 10-furlong experience. And at age two, he ran a crackerjack race over the Churchill surface, winning the one-turn-mile Street Sense S. while only a hundredth of a second off the stakes record. Not an overt win threat, but definitely fodder for exotics.

12) MR. BIG NEWS (c, Giant’s Causeway—Unappeased {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire}) O-Allied Racing Stable LLC; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $95,000 Ylg ’18 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: SW, 7-2-1-0, $168,553
Last Start: 6th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Equineline PPs.

With a distance-centric pedigree (by Giant’s Causeway out of a Galileo mare), you can see why 10 furlongs could very well be within the wheelhouse for Mr. Big News. The exclamation point in his past performance block is the 46-1 half-length splashdown win he earned when relishing a sealed/sloppy Hot Springs track in the Apr. 11 Oaklawn S. But Mr. Big News was drifting out in that victory, and only one of the dozen horses he bested that day (Thousand Words) has proven to be of Kentucky Derby caliber. Although his career-top Beyer of 88 will not be good enough to win the Derby, it’s worth noting that this colt has never regressed in terms of speed numbers, earning Beyers that have moved upward for each of his seven lifetime tries.

13) MONEY MOVES (c, Candy Ride {Arg}—Citizen Advocate, by Proud Citizen) O-Robert V LaPenta & Bortolazzo Stable; B-Whitehall Lane Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $975,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $67,400.
Last Start: 2nd Allowance, SAR, July 25
Equineline PPs.

This $975,000 OBSAPR Candy Ride (Arg) colt is light on experience (just three races), but high on potential based on a pair of one-turn Gulfstream wins to kick off his career and an eye-catching 98-Beyer second at Saratoga over nine furlongs. He’s run well as a pace-pressing threat and has overcome two stutter-step starts leaving the gate, but being in the hunt over 10 furlongs in just his second start back since March is still a major ask at this point in his career. But history could be on his side: dam-sire Proud Citizen was also a late consideration for the 2002 Derby, yet he ran a better-than-expected second at 23-1 odds.

14) ATTACHMENT RATE (c, Hard Spun—Aristra, by Afleet Alex) O-Jim Bakke & Gerald Isbister; B-Mr & Mrs C Oliver Iselin (VA); T-Dale Romans. Sales History: $100,000 Wlg ’17 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 8-1-3-1, $143,732.
Last Start: 2nd Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 9
Equineline PPs.

As a May 18 foal, Attachment Rate has no doubt benefitted from the September rescheduling of the Derby. But with only a maiden win to his credit, this Virginia-bred Hard Spun colt ($100,000 KEENOV; $200,000 KEESEP) is facing a tall task coming off a best-of-the-rest second behind Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby. Prior to that, he had trip trouble in three consecutive stakes yet managed to improve his Beyers in each of those efforts.

15) FINNICK THE FIERCE (g, Dialed In—Southern Classic, by Southern Image) O-Arnaldo Monge & Rey Hernandez; B-Paige Jillian Blue Sky Stables (KY); T-Rey Hernandez. Lifetime Record: GISP, 9-2-1-2, $191,290. Last Start: 7th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11 Equineline PPs

Finnick the Fierce hasn’t dodged any heavy hitters in his preps, and he’s run some respectable races at long odds while picking up a handful checks for minor awards. Most notably, he is one of only two horses to ever finish in front of Tiz the Law, running an 87-1 second in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. over a waterlogged Churchill surface. But Finnick’s only true win was a five-furlong sprint at age two at Indiana Downs in a four-horse field (he also got moved up via DQ at Oaklawn going 1 1/16 miles). Although co-owner and trainer Rey Hernandez noted this Dialed In gelding has thrice run well from post one, the rail draw is traditionally a disadvantage in the crowded Derby, and it’s even more complicated for Finnick because he lost his right eye as a baby (congenital cataract) and won’t be able to see the wall of horses to his immediate outside.

16) STORM THE COURT (c, Court Vision–My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run) O-Exline-Border Racing LLC & David A Bernsen LLC; B-Stepping Stone Farm (KY); T-Peter Eurton. Sales History: $5,000 Ylg ’18 FTKFEB; $60,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 9-2-1-3, $1,310,451.
Last Start: 2nd GIII La Jolla H., DMR, Aug. 9.
Equineline PPs.

Storm the Court enters the Derby winless in 10 months, with his last score being the  45-1 shocker in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that he has been unable to replicate. Although this $60,000 OBSAPR bay (bought for $5,000 as a FTKFEB yearling) doesn’t have a “traditional” Derby-horse pedigree, hints of it are there. Sire Court Vision, although known as a MGISW turfer who capped his career with a win in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile, did start his career on dirt with wins in the GIII Iroquois S. and GII Remsen S. at age two, and he started in both the Kentucky Derby and GI Travers S. at three. Dam-sire Tejano Run was a rugged (8-4-6 from 21 starts) MGSW/MGISP galloper who ran second in the 1995 Derby.

17) MAJOR FED (c, Ghostzapper—Bobby’s Babe, by Smart Strike) O-Lloyd Madison Farms IV LLC; B-Lloyd Madison IV (KY); T-Greg Foley. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 6-1-2-1, $215,600.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Indiana Derby, IND, July 8
Equineline PPs.

Major Fed is one of three Derby entrants who have yet to win beyond the maiden ranks. This Ghostzapper homebred out of a Smart Strike mare has earned two seconds in Grade II and Grade III stakes, and his best efforts have come from mid-pack stalking trips. He has a habit of getting parked out wide on the turns, so trying to tuck in to save ground from post five might be his best shot.

18) WINNING IMPRESSION (g, Paynter—Unbridled Sonya, by Unbridled’s Song) O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Pearl Racing; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Dallas Stewart. Sales History: $17,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP; $77,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 9-1-1-2, $98,552.
Last Start: 7th Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 9
Equineline PPs.

Winning Impression has the makings of a mudlark. Unfortunately for him, the advance forecast for Derby day is clear and sunny. He’s crossed the finish wire first both times he’s raced over the slop (losing one via DQ) but has been beaten double-digit lengths in a pair of seventh-place efforts in two summer stakes preps since then. His sire, Paynter, was second in the 2012 GI Belmont S. over 1 1/2 miles, so there is a glimmer of hope that 10 furlongs in the Derby could be a move-up for him.

The post The TDN Derby Rankings for September 2 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

1) TIZ THE LAW (c, Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
O-Sackatoga Stable. B-Twin Creeks Farm (NY). T-Barclay Tagg. Sales History: $110,000 yrl ’18 FTNAUG. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-5-0-1, $1,480,300.
Last Start: 1st GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 28, 1st GI Champagne S., 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 1, 3rd GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 30
Next Start: GI Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 272.

Tiz the Law has been confidently carrying the burden of No. 1 favoritism since Mar. 11, and the 5-for-6 divisional kingpin arrived in Saratoga Monday morning in preparation for the GI Travers S. on Aug. 8. A win in the Midsummer Classic would mark one year to the date since this New York-bred broke his maiden at the Spa, and his only lifetime loss was a trip-troubled third in the slop at Churchill Downs last November. This $110,000 SARAUG Constitution colt ended his juvenile season as an overachiever with a knack for finding tight spots and pockets of traffic while still managing to win. But at age three Tiz emerged as a stronger, faster, more tactically agile racehorse, and he’s been well tuned in his training, with a minor foot bruise back in February as the only several-day setback in his regimen. Partnering with jockey Manny Franco, this assertive stalker has learned how to put himself in position to apply pressure as a menacing presence just behind the leaders, and with five open-length victories by margins of at least three lengths Tiz has yet to hook up with anybody who can seriously run with him inside the eighth pole. In a year filled with COVID-19 concerns and asterisks because of all the changes to the Triple Crown schedule, Tiz the Law has remained a constant, shining presence, handling just about any challenge thrown his way.

2) HONOR A.P. (r, Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
O-C R K Stable LLC. B-George Krikorian (KY). T-John Shirreffs. Sales History: $850,000 yrl ’18 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-2-0, $362,200.
Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby June 6. Accomplishments Include: 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7.
Next Start: Shared Belief S., DMR, Aug. 1.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 120.

While Tiz the Law merits the No. 1 ranking based on his impressive overall resume, Honor A.P. looms as the sophomore whose untapped potential is the most tantalizing. This $850,000 FTSAUG ridgling’s GI Santa Anita Derby score on June 6 serves as the measuring stick for the California-based contenders because it was a 2 ¾-length, grind-’em-down victory notable for both Honor A.P.’s long reach and the ease with which he covered that ground. Trainer John Shirreffs has said repeatedly this first-crop son of Honor Code has the mental makeup to handle the rigors of a 20-horse Derby field, and the 1 1/16 miles Shared Belief S. at Del Mar Aug. 1 will be his final prep prior to Louisville. On Sunday, Honor A.P. worked seven furlongs in 1:29.20 (1/2) at Del Mar as part of a three-way team. He started about a length behind two maiden juvenile workmates and was asked to slip through at the rail, which he did without strenuous effort. Track clockers had Honor A.P. going from the five-furlong pole to the wire in 1:03.30, edging away from his overmatched mates before continuing on for another quarter-mile on his own.

3) AUTHENTIC (c, Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Fred Hertrich III, John D. Fielding & Golconda Stables. B-Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 4-3-1-0, $411,200.
Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, June 5. Accomplishments Include: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7; 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 4.
Next Start: GI Haskell S., MTH, July 18.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100.

Authentic is New Jersey-bound after breezing a solo five-eighths in :59.80 (4/88) at Del Mar July 11 in prep for the GI Haskell S. on Saturday. He’ll be solidly favored based on the list of probables for Monmouth’s calling-card race, and one of the big questions for this $350,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay is whether or not he wants (or needs to) transition into an effective stalker in order to maintain his spot in the overall pecking order. Authentic started his career 3-for-3, winning near the lead in a MSW sprint then wiring graded stakes fields in his first two route attempts. But in the Santa Anita Derby, this colt broke tardily and outward, then tried to press the pace while three wide on both turns. He ended up second behind No. 2-ranked Honor A.P., but likely gained more from that experience than is evident on paper. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Haskell eight times, and in aiming for a ninth he has worked Authentic no fewer than five times in the six-weeks span between races, including bullets at both a flat mile and six furlongs.

4) ART COLLECTOR (c, Bernardini—Distorted Legacy, by Distorted Humor)
O/B-Bruce Lunsford (KY). T-Thomas Drury Jr. Lifetime Record: GSW, 8-4-1-0, $548,475.
Last Start: 1st GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100.

Art Collector cruised into the GII Blue Grass S. having crossed the wire first by open lengths in three straight races against allowance/optional claiming company. He soared out of Saturday’s Keeneland feature 3 1/2 lengths the best after a tenacious stretch duel that earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest by any 3-year-old at a mile or longer this year. This athletic Bruce Lunsford homebred by Bernardini broke with the pacemakers, applied pressure from third behind dueling leaders, and when the favored filly Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) put away rail-running Shivaree (Awesome of Course), Art Collector gamely latched onto her and ratcheted up the pressure. From the quarter pole to the sixteenth pole both rivals dug in, but in the final half a furlong Art Collector torqued into another gear the leading GI Kentucky Oaks points-earner couldn’t match. The Keeneland mini-meet did produce fast times on both surfaces, and while Saturday’s dirt races were not outright dominated by speed (one wire winner, five pace-pressers, one midpack stalker), being in the hunt near the front did yield discernable advantages. The Aug. 9 Ellis Park Derby is a next-race possibility according to trainer Thomas Drury Jr., but another start before the Derby is not a requirement considering Art Collector has bankrolled 100 Derby qualifying points (tied for third).

5) KING GUILLERMO (c, Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band)
O-Victoria’s Ranch. B-Carhue Investments, Grouseridge Ltd. & Marengo Investments (KY). T-Juan Avila. Sales History: $90,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $150,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-1-1, $340,350.
Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby, OP, May 2
Accomplishments Include: 3rd Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30, 1st
GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, Sept. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 90.

We’re approaching the seven-week mark to the Derby, and already King Guillermo is shaping up as the most intriguing under-the-radar contender despite his high ranking on this list. In an already unconventional season because of the coronavirus, his connections are taking an even more unusual prep path to the Derby, with a projected 127-day gap between starts. This second-deadline (June 3) Triple Crown nominee owns only two tries against graded stakes company, but both were crackerjack efforts. This Uncle Mo bay ($90,000 RNA at KEESEP; $150,000 OBSAPR) forced the issue on the front end at 49-1 odds to win the third-fastest GII Tampa Bay Derby in the race’s 40 runnings, then he ran a tenacious second in the stronger/faster division of the split GI Arkansas Derby. After some down time on a Florida farm, he got back to business July 4 with a bullet (1/118) :47.11 half-mile breeze at Gulfstream. On July 11, he was clocked over the same distance in :48.03 (8/101). Trainer Juan Carlos Avila posted on Twitter afterward that the King came out of his work in “excellent” shape, with a five-furlong work planned for this coming Saturday.

6) UNCLE CHUCK (c, Uncle Mo—Forest Music, by Unbridled’s Song)
O-Karl Watson, Michael E. Pegram & Paul Weitman. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $250,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $120,000.
Last Start: 1st GIII Los Alamitos Derby, LRC, July 4
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 20.

Uncle Chuck’s adept dismantling of the four-horse GIII Los Alamitos Derby July 4 pairs up nicely with his seven-length maiden romp back on June 12. In his maiden win over a mile, this $250,000 KEESEP Uncle Mo colt wired the field after breaking a step slowly. Stepping up to stakes company at Los Al, Uncle Chuck broke alertly, was rated wide into the first turn, settled comfortably on the backstretch, then took dead aim at the leader, blowing by as he pleased. Roused for the stretch run–at 1,380 feet, the longest in North America–Uncle Chuck had plenty left, gamely swatting away a fresh challenge from stablemate Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile), a sophomore who was once so highly regarded that he spent the bulk of last winter atop this Top 12 list. Hand-ridden in the final stages, Uncle Chuck scored by four decisive lengths. This colt boasts speed and precocity on the bottom side of his pedigree and two-turn potency up top. For a more detailed dissection of Uncle Chuck’s family line, see colleague Chris McGrath’s deep-dive analysis from last week.

7) SHARED SENSE (c, Street Sense–Collective, by Bernardini)
O/B-Godolphin LLC (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 8-3-2-0, $322,112.
Last Start: 1st GIII Indiana Derby, IND, July 8
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 20.

Shared Sense emerged as a late arrival on the Derby scene with his off-the-pace, track-record (.17 seconds off the old mark) score in last Wednesday’s GIII Indiana Derby, which for the first time was carded at nine furlongs. His stock inched upward again on Saturday thanks to a company-line boost from three-peat winner Art Collector, who came back out of their 1-2 finish in a June 13 Churchill Downs allowance to annex the Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. The Indiana Grand win by this homebred for Godolphin wasn’t so much a “Wow!” performance, but it underscored that this is a sophomore going the right way on the progression arc with more than a few hints at distance ability lodged within his pedigree (Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare). “He’s a tough horse,” trainer Brad Cox said, “On the dry dirt, that’s where he gets his best races. I tried him on the grass. His physical makeup, how he travels, I thought he might like the grass. He didn’t really go for it. And his last race at Churchill was a really good race. That race didn’t set up at all for him and he ran a big race. He’s just a horse I think will get better with distance and race.”

8) DR POST (c, Quality Road—Mary Delaney, by Hennessy)
O-St. Elias Stable. B-Cloyce C. Clark (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $200,000 wlg ’18 KEESEP; $400,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GISP, 4-2-1-0, $261,635.
Last Start: 2nd GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st Unbridled S., GP, Apr. 25
Next Start: GI Haskell S., MTH, July 18
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

Dr Post, the Belmont S. runner-up, now has two four-furlong breezes under his belt since his graded stakes debut, and last week was deemed a “likely” Haskell S. starter by trainer Todd Pletcher (entries Wednesday). If you discount his career debut, when this Quality Road colt bobbled at the break at 1-2 odds and ran fourth in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint, Dr. Post has paired back-to-back wins at Gulfstream over seven furlongs and 1 1/16 miles with his nine-furlong second behind the No. 1-ranked sophomore in the land. Although this $400,000 KEESEP and $200,000 KEENOV colt was not in the same league as Tiz the Law on June 20, Dr Post did win the “race within the race,” finishing ahead of some fairly accomplished contenders. If noted speedsters Authentic and Ete Indien (Summer Front) both show up for the Haskell and go too fast to last, Dr Post will be primed to pounce.

9) ENFORCEABLE (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
O-John Oxley. B-Clearsky Farm (KY). T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $775,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP,
10-2-2-2, $367,150.
Last Start: 4th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 18; 3rd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, Oct. 5, 2nd GII Risen Star S. Div. 1, FG, Feb. 15.
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 43.

True to form, Enforceable ($775,000 KEESEP RNA) took the overland route home in the Blue Grass S., rallying from tenth to get necked in a photo for third while never threatening Art Collector and Swiss Skydiver, who were 8 1/4 lengths clear of the pack. “He ran well,” trainer Mark Casse said post-race. “I don’t think there is any secret out there that there has been a pretty good speed bias and we had to run against it. We ended up fairly wide turning for home and it probably cost us third. But I just wanted a positive race and him finishing. I talked to Mr. [owner John] Oxley beforehand and told him we don’t have to win, we just want a good race. Now what we want is for him to come out of this race and do well and we’ll figure out one more. I was proud of him [Saturday]. He broke well, and that’s something we worked hard on because he hadn’t been breaking very well. It was a real positive race.”

10) SOLE VOLANTE (g, Karakontie {Jpn}—Light Blow, by Kingmambo)
O-Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone & Limelight Stables Corp. B-Flaxman Holdings Limited (KY). T-Patrick Biancone. Sales History: $6,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $20,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-4-1-1, $323,310.
Last Start: 6th GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 8, 1st Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30, 2nd GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 7.
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

Sole Volante, a light-bodied stayer with a grass-on-grass pedigree (Karakontie {Jpn} out of a Kingmambo mare), figures to be a forgotten horse on the Derby trail after his no-punch sixth in the Belmont S. He reportedly didn’t like the track that day according to trainer Patrick Biancone, and no next-race plans have been publicly announced. But still, if this $6,000 KEESEP and $20,000 OBSAPR gelding ends up in the Derby, the prospect of a hot pace coupled with his smooth way of going and keen mind make him one of those dark-horse outsiders who figures as a logical long shot.

11) MAX PLAYER (c, Honor Code—Fools in Love, by Not For Love)
O-George E. Hall & SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp. B-K&G Stables (KY). T-Linda Rice. Sales History: $150,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $273,500.
Last Start: 3rd GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 1
Next Start: GI Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

Trainer Linda Rice said last week that after considering either Thursday’s GIII Peter Pan at Saratoga or Saturday’s Haskell at Monmouth, Max Player is instead going to wait another three weeks and “point right to the Travers.” This Honor Code colt ($150,000 KEESEP RNA) gained a foothold within the Top 12 after a “best of the rest” third in the Belmont S. At 14-1 odds, Max was no true threat to Tiz the Law, but his performance has to be viewed through the prism coming off of a 4 1/2-month layoff (primarily due to pandemic postponements). Max broke his maiden in start number two at Parx, then stretched capably to nine furlongs in the Feb. 1 GIII Withers, pressuring a tiring favored pacemaker into submission through moderate fractions. Rice has described this colt as a slow but steady learner, and if he can build that Belmont third into a breakthrough Travers performance, he could blossom into a “live” horse for the first Saturday in September.

12) CEZANNE (c, Curlin—Achieving, by Bernardini)
O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith & St Elias Stable. B-Hill ‘n’ Dale Equine Holdings Inc & St Elias Stables LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $3,650,000 2yo ’19 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $57,000.
Last Start: 1st Allowance/Optional Claiming, LRC, July 2.
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Cezanne advanced his record to 2-for-2 with a July 2 first-level allowance/optional claiming score over a mile at Los Alamitos. But considering this $3.65 million FTFMAR sales topper was 1-to-10 in the betting against only four rivals, he did not deliver an emphatic enough performance to retain his previous No. 8 placement. He stalked in third, quickened when cued to go after his stablemate entering the far turn, then passed that rival five-sixteenths out. Through the stretch, Cezanne had to be kept to task under both right- and left-handed stick work, and he could not decisively put away the longest shot on the board, a pesky closer who had required 10 starts to break his maiden for a $50,000 tag. The winning margin was an eroding 1 3/4 lengths (85 Beyer). By contrast, this Curlin bay’s debut was much more visually impressive: In that June 6 sprint, Cezanne fought all the way amid a four-way go, then dug in and opened up to win without being fully extended (90 Beyer).

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for July 14 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post