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Jumping well and close to the pacesetters, Sixpence tucked in neatly behind Allegro Brillante (Jpn) (Deep Brillante {Jpn}) and that one's closest pursuer Cosmo Buddleja (Jpn) (Gold Ship {Jpn}) as the pair showed the way. The placings remained consistent until the field passed the 800 metre mark with closers beginning their march from the rear and Sixpence was launching his own rally coming off the bend.

Looming the danger with 400 metres left, Christophe Lemaire asked and his charge responded, leaving long-time leader Allegro Brillante in his wake under the mildest of hand rides. The advantage extended with 200 metres left in the running and the gap back to the game pacesetter was 3 1/2 lengths on the wire. Lucullan Feast (Jpn) (Isla Bonita {Jpn}) came out best of the scramble for the minors, nosing out Channel Tunnel (Jpn) (Greater London {Jpn}) for the last trifecta spot.

Hold the phone, we've got a live one!

G2 1800m Spring Stakes, a classic Satsuki Sho trial

Won by exciting 3c 4. SIXPENCE (Kizuna x Finley'sluckycharm (Twirling Candy)) x Christophe Lemaire

Unbeaten in 3 starts

Devastating turn of foot!#JRA pic.twitter.com/eiJlzgF5WJ

— Graham Pavey (@LongBallToNoOne) March 17, 2024

Pedigree Note
The lone offspring to race for American Grade I-winner Finley'sluckycharm (Twirling Candy) thus far, Sixpence is the newest Classic contender for sire Kizuna (Jpn), who himself was the Japanese champion 3-year-old colt as well as a Classic winner in France and Japan. Among the stallion's best runners are dual champion Songline (Jpn), who twice claimed the G1 Yasuda Kinen, and G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup victrex Akai Ito (Jpn).

On his female line side, the busiest activity is found deep in the pedigree via the dam Gather the Clan (Ire), who is responsible for GISW Pure Clan (Pure Prize). That mare would later go on to produce SW & GISP Princesa Carolina (Tapit), who set a course-record en route to her victory in the Fifth Third Insurance Dueling Grounds Oaks. She is not the only runner with a wicked turn of foot as Pure Clan's half-brother MGSW Greater Good set a new track-record beneath the fabled twin spires of Churchill Downs.

Since changing hands to Katsumi Yoshida for $1.5-million in 2018 at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky November sale, Finley'sluckycharm has produced two of racing age, but Sixpence is the first to make it to the races. She does have a 2-year-old colt by Lord Kanaloa (Jpn) named Field Note (Jpn). Her 2023 Orfevre (Jpn) foal was stillborn.

Sunday, Nakayama, Japan
FUJI TV SHO SPRING STAKES-G2, ¥104,580,000, Nakayama, 3-17, 3yo, 1800mT, 1:49.40, fm.
1–SIXPENCE (JPN), 126, c, 3, by Kizuna (Jpn)
           1st Dam: Finley'sluckycharm (GISW, $928,068), by Twirling Candy
           2nd Dam: Day of Victory, by Victory Gallop
           3rd Dam: Gather the Day, by Dayjur
1ST BLACK-TYPE WIN, 1ST GROUP WIN. O-Carrot Farm; B-Northern Farm; T-Sakae Kunieda; J-Christophe Lemaire; ¥54,756,000. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, ¥72,873,000. Werk Nick Rating: F. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Allegro Brillante (Jpn), 126, c, 3, Deep Brillante (Jpn)–Centenary (Jpn), by French Deputy. 1ST BLACK-TYPE, 1ST GROUP BLACK-TYPE. O-Sunday Racing; B-Northern Farm; ¥22,216,000.
3–Lucullan Feast (Jpn), 126, c, 3, Isla Bonita (Jpn)–Gorgeous Lunch (Jpn), by Manhattan Cafe (Jpn). 1ST BLACK-TYPE, 1ST GROUP BLACK-TYPE. O-Shadai Race Horse; B- Shadai Farm; ¥14,108,000.
Margins: 3HF, 1, NO; Odds: 1.90, 24.30, 6.30.
Also Ran: Channel Tunnel (Jpn), Cosmo Buddleja (Jpn), Stinger Glass (Jpn), Pellegrini (Jpn), Lograr (Jpn), Water Licht (Jpn), Jun Gold (Jpn). Click for the JRA chart & video.

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The Ocala Breeders' Sales Company's March 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale opened Tuesday with a solid session, and while the 2-year-old sales are usually all about speed, the day was topped by a colt by Tapit who galloped during last week's under-tack show. From the Lothenbach dispersal, the youngster sold for $1.2 million to the partnership of West Point Thoroughbreds and D. J. Stables. He was consigned by Tom McCrocklin.

“I think it points to the fact that the under-tack show is one metric,” said OBS Director of Sales Tod Wojciechowski. “There are a lot of different metrics that people use to buy horses. The under-tack shows get talked about a lot, but it's not the only thing. There were obviously people here who felt like they could get a good read on the horse and liked what they saw at the barn and what they saw on the racetrack in the way he moved. Everybody focuses on the time because it's an easy touch point, but there are a lot of other variables and intangibles that go into that decision-making process.”

During the session, 152 horses sold for $20,844,000 for an average of $137,132 and a median of $73,500. The average was down 11% from a year ago and the median dipped 18.3%. The buy-back rate for Tuesday's session was 26.9%. It was 32.1% a year ago.

“It's hard to compare day to days after the first day, but I thought it was pretty on line with last year overall,” Wojciechowski said.

Showing the breadth of the buying bench, the top 10-priced lots were purchased by 10 different buyers.

“The buying bench was pretty varied,” Wojciechowski said. “There were a lot of different people buying horses. I felt like we have good horses spread out through the entire catalogue. We obviously had some highlights today and I think we will continue to have highlights over the next two days.”

Of the top 10 sellers Tuesday, two were from the first crop of Gainesway stallion McKinzie, with Bill Childs going to $750,000 for a colt from the Wavertree Stables consignment and Belmar Racing, R.A. Hill and Gargan going to $450,000 for a colt from the King's Equine consignment. Both colts shared bullet furlong work times of :9 4/5.

The OBS March sale continues through Thursday with sessions beginning daily at 11 a.m.

West Point, DJ Stable Unite for Tapit Colt

Proving that value rarely goes unnoticed among the savvy juvenile market buyers, Hip 173, a colt by leading sire Tapit, realized $1.2 million on the OBS March Sale's opening day. With the tempo picking up noticeably as the session progressed, West Point Thoroughbreds and D J Stable teamed up to land the opening session's sole seven-figure offering. Consigned by Tom McCrocklin, the Feb. 27 foal was a member of the Lothenbach Stables Dispersal.

Jonathan Green & Terry Finley | Photos by Z

“He's the kind that we look for. We figured he'd bring a lot of money, but I think he's got plenty of upside,” said West Point's Terry Finley. “The Tapits can be across the board in terms of their mental disposition, but he has a very cool mind and acted the right way. With these expensive horses, we tend to say the same things and just keep our fingers crossed. You just hope they live up to that expectation.”

Out of Distorted Music, herself a $190,000 Keeneland September purchase in 2011, the gray is a half-brother to Grade III winner She Can't Sing (Bernardini). The colt represents the family of GI CCA Oaks heroine Music Note, dam of G1 Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide, in addition to French Classic scorer Musical Chimes.

“Obviously, we have a soft spot for Tapit,” explained Finley. “We love the fact that this [colt] is big and raw.”

The dispersal came up after Bob Lothenbach died suddenly at the age of 64 last fall. All of the Lothenbach horses galloped during last week's breeze sessions.

“I didn't know [Lothenbach] but I know he had a beautiful breeding program and ran a great operation,” said Finley. “We knew we were buying something from a very effective program.”

D J Stable's Jon Green was equally enthused with Tuesday's purchase.

“You look at these dispersals, and it seems like every year one jumps out of that program. We hope it works out that way. But we really thought he was the best of that group. The fact that he was galloping and not breezing, for a big horse like that, it only added to his appeal because we felt it would be more beneficial to his development. The world is his oyster.”

Partnering on a handful of horses in the past, including Grade III winner Turned Aside (American Pharoah), longtime friends Len and Jon Green and Finley thought it seemed like the right time to take the relationship to the next level.

“We have had a couple of horses with the Greens in the past, but this is by far the best we've ever got our hands on together, so we're excited to go forward,” said Finley.

Green echoed the sentiment.

“The important thing about this horse are the people behind it. Terry and I have been talking and we were just waiting for the right horse and we felt this was absolutely the right athlete to go after. He looks like he has two-turn ability and we're going to take our time with him. This was just the right opportunity.” —@CBossTDN

Not This Time Colt Heads to Japan

A colt by Not This Time (hip 183) will be heading to Japan after selling for $850,000 to the bid of bloodstock agent Shingo Hashimoto, acting on behalf of Katsumi Yoshida. The dark bay colt was consigned by Hartley/DeRenzo Thoroughbreds on behalf of trainer Tom Durant. He worked a furlong last week in :10 flat.

“His workout was really good and his appearance was really nice,” Hashimoto said. “We really liked the colt and we are very excited about him. We will bring him back to Japan and see how he goes.”

The colt is out of Dos Vinos (Twirling Candy), a half-sister to stakes winner China Grove (City Zip) purchased by Durant for $230,000 at the 2017 Keeneland September sale.

Hashimoto, who purchased a $1.05-million son of Arrogate on behalf of Yoshida at last year's March sale, was making his second purchase of the 2024 auction with hip 183. He went to $310,000 for a filly by Take Charge Indy (hip 110) earlier in the session.

Of the March sale's appeal, Hashimoto said, “It's good to know how the horses change from what we saw at the yearling sale and how they train. I think the level of training that they do in the U.S. is very high.” @JessMartiniTDN

Colts Group Adds an Uncle Mo Juvenile

The BSW/Crow Colts Group and Spendthrift Farm partnership, which has been active at the yearling sales the last few years, supplemented its 2024 roster heading to the barn of trainer Brad Cox with the purchase of an Uncle Mo colt (hip 106) for $750,000 during Tuesday's first session of the OBS March sale. The bay colt, consigned by Pick View, is out of Canteen (Candy Ride {Arg}).

Hip 106 | Photos by Z

“Everybody on the team liked him,” Liz Crow said after signing the ticket on the juvenile. “Katelyn Jackson, Ned Toffey and his son Daniel and Seth [Semkin] and then Brad Cox, everybody on the whole team felt like he fit what we were looking for.”

The partners had success buying at OBS last year, purchasing Jimmy Winkfield S. winner Bergen (Liam's Map) for $375,000 at the OBS April sale.

“It was hard to buy yearlings last year,” Crow said. “We have a small number, we only have 10, and so this will be our 11th horse for the group.”

Stock Thoroughbreds purchased the colt for $270,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. He worked a furlong during last week's under-tack show in :10 2/5. @JessMartiniTDN

Childs Jumps into the Fray Early at OBS

Bill Childs sat chilly until the closing moments of last year's OBS March Sale to land a Justify colt for $700,000. This year, the Texas businessman reversed course and extended to $750,000 for Hip 89, a son of freshman sire McKinzie, early in the sale.

The bay recorded a :9.4 move for Wavertree Stables during last Wednesday's breeze session.

“I really liked everything about him,” said Childs. “I liked the way he worked–that was an obvious reason. But I also liked him because I thought he'd want to go two turns.”

Bill Childs | Photos by Z

Out of Breech Inlet (Holy Bull), the Ontario-bred is a half-brother to Canadian multiple stakes winner and graded placed Merveilleux (Paynter). The colt's 14-year-old dam, a granddaughter of GISW By Land By Sea, is a half-sister to GSW Bauble Queen (Arch). In foal to Olympiad, she brought $50,000 at Keeneland November last season.

“He doesn't look like a horse that should work that fast going that short,” added Childs. “But when they do, they'll often turn out to be good.”

According to Ciaran Dunne, the colt has flourished since his arrival in September.

“He's a beautiful horse and worked really well,” he said. “He is one of those rare things, he was well sold and well bought. I think it hurt him a little bit being so early in the sale. People might have been expecting him to bring a little bit more or they weren't quite ready. But I think it was a fair price for him.”

According to Childs, the colt will go to trainer Bob Baffert, who also trained the youngster's sire, McKinzie.

“It's his first crop, so we don't know how that'll go,” he added. “But based on the way they worked here, it looks like they will be good.”

Offered at last year's Keeneland September sale, the Feb. 26 foal was secured by Ron Fein's Superfine Farm for $205,000.

Asked about the feel of the market halfway through Tuesday's session, Childs said, “It was actually a little softer than I thought. I saw a few that I thought would have brought a little more money. However, I do think it will probably get stronger as the sale goes along.”–@CBossTDN

Mischief Returns to OBS

Rarely absent from the leaderboard at any sale in the country, Into Mischief was represented by Hip 202, a colt that realized a $700,000 final bid from Muir Hut Stables. Out of GSW Electric Forest (Curlin), the bay colt is a grandson of MGSW and MGISP Forest Music (Unbridled's Song), herself responsible for graded winner Uncle chuck (Uncle Mo). Spendthrift Farm was among the underbidders on the colt.

“Muir Hut Stables has put a lot into the game,” said Southern California-based trainer Mark Glatt, stationed alongside the Muir Hutt team during the bidding. “I have been trying to get them to buy an Into Mischief for some time now. We were able to get this one, so we're excited.”

The Mar. 19 foal breezed an eighth in :10.1 during the initial breeze session last week.

“We are high on the sire, of course, but also on [broodmare sire] Curlin. This colt is a very athletic horse and seems to have talent. We hope he stays sound so we can get him to the races.”

Bred by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, the bay was consigned by Old South Farm on behalf of Bow River Ranch.

“I bought him for a new group of guys. That's their first pinhooking venture,” confirmed consignor Hoby Kight, who signed for the colt after the Oregon-based group paid $250,000 at last September's Keeneland sale.

When asked what drew him to the colt, Kight explained, “Everyone knows what I like–I like a horse with angles. I like a stretchy, big and fast horse with just enough pedigree. That's what it takes. If they can run, you're good. That's what I like to buy and this colt fit the bill.”

According to Kight, the fledgling partnership also sold Hip 19, a colt by Munnings, for $250,000, in addition to a Gun Runner colt (Hip 155) for $100,000.

“For me, the sale has been very fair so far,” Kight added. “The Munnings could have been anywhere from $250,000 to $400,000, depending on the breeze. He worked with a headwind [10.1], so that might have affected things a bit, but I thought it was fair overall.”–@CBossTDN

Munnings Filly Jump Starts March Sale

With the March sale less than half-an-hour old, a filly by Munnings (hip 26) kick started the action in Ocala Tuesday when selling for $700,000 to the bid of trainer Will Walden, acting on behalf of John Sykes's Woodford Thoroughbreds. The bay filly, consigned by Niall Brennan Stables, shared the :9 4/5 bullet on the first day of last week's under-tack show.

“I thought she had all of the parts,” Walden said. “She is a little bit on the smaller side, but with plenty of muscle. She had a great walk and temperament at the barn. I thought the breeze was outstanding. It was the best gallop out of the day and it was on the toughest day. She did it into a 10 mph headwind.”

Will Walden & Niall Brennan | Photos by Z

The filly is the first foal out of the unraced Ansaam (Bernardini), a half-sister to Grade I winner Denman's Call (Northern Afleet) and from the family of multiple Grade I winner Evening Jewel. She was a $95,000 Keeneland September purchase by Ryston Stables.

“She's probably a filly who is going to be early,” Walden said. “We will get her back to Turfway and then Keeneland and start looking for starts around Churchill. We are really excited to have her.”

Walden has been buying horses for Sykes across the globe over the last several months.

“He has been a great supporter of ours,” Walden said of Sykes. “He supported us when we went overseas when we bought some out of Tattersalls. We are just trying to buy runners and get in the winner's circle. He has a breeding operation, so with this filly's pedigree and hopefully with what she does on the track, she will hold some residual value as a broodmare.”

Walden agreed, with the juvenile sales season just minutes old, it could be difficult to anticipate prices.

“I had her between $600,000 and $800,000,” he said. “I would have liked to pay six instead of seven, but she is a quality filly and we are happy we got her. But you have to trust your gut. If you like the horse, the horse speaks to you and, on numbers and on paper it works out, you have to take a swing.”  @JessMartiniTDN

All Dreams Equine Absent from OBS

Juan Centeno's All Dreams Equine consignment, which was pulled into controversy when a filly it sold at last year's OBS June sale broke down at Finger Lakes in November and subsequently tested positive for Clenbuterol, had six horses catalogued to the OBS March sale, but the entire group was scratched from the auction.

“There was some publicity about me and my consignment and I just felt like it wasn't going to be a fair judgement on the horses,” Centeno said of the decision to withdraw his horses from the auction. “I could feel the energy wasn't all there. So the best thing for the horses and for everybody else was to scratch them for now.”

Two of the horses from Centeno's March consignment were involved in incidents during last week's under-tack show, with a filly collapsing on the track following her breeze and a colt getting loose before breezing and galloping around the infield.

OBS sales officials confirmed that Centeno had voluntarily scratched his horses from that sale and that the All Dreams horses were all tested before the under-tack show, but that results of those tests were not yet available.

“Yes and he welcomed it,” OBS President Tom Ventura said when asked about testing the horses in the consignment. “We did hair samples and additional blood samples. We don't have the results to share back at this point, but whatever he had here, he welcomed any additional scrutiny that might show that they had nothing in their systems.”

Of the additional testing, Centeno said, “All of my horses were tested, I don't know the results because they have them. But I have nothing to hide. I have always been honest and I have a good record. My tests have always been clean. And anybody who has questions or wants to test the horses, they are available to be tested or inspected. Not a problem.”

He continued, “I was happy to be tested. I have nothing to hide. I treat my horses with the highest standards. I am very dedicated to my horses. I am attached to my horses. And I am very proud of what we do together.”

Trainer Jeffrey Englehart was facing a two-year suspension after the Classic Empire colt he purchased from the All Dreams consignment last summer tested positive for Clenbuterol after breaking down in November. The case against him was dropped when segmented test of the colt's hair sample revealed that the drug had been administered before Englehart had become the horse's trainer.

“I was surprised when I was accused about that,” Centeno said of speculation that he had given the colt the drug. “I never gave anything to my horses. I wanted to prove that. And for that reason, the horses are available to be tested, to show the buyers I am honest and I play by the rules.”

Of the filly that collapsed after breezing during last week's under-tack show, “The horse was fine and we asked him to keep it here so that everybody, including us, could go and inspect the horse,” Ventura said. “And we talked to the vet and we aren't sure exactly what caused it, but she came out of it fine.”

The horse that got loose on the track was also uninjured in the mishap.

“If he had gotten loose on Wednesday, he would have had the opportunity to come back and breeze on Saturday, but given that he got loose on the last day at the under-tack show, there was no opportunity for him to come back,” said OBS Director of Sales Tod Wojciechowski. @JessMartiniTDN

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In the old days, farm accountants might reckon on three seasons to retrieve the investment required to land a stallion prospect. The model was “three and out.” Nowadays, they're having to calculate closer to “one and out.”

In the verdict shared by one confidant, the market for second-season sires in 2024 is proving “brutal.”  Already five years ago, one of the big commercial farms managed to find just 53 mares for the second book of a stallion that had started out the year before with 223. It's very hard to see who benefits from that kind of volatility.

Knowing that the only thing as certain as demand for a new stallion is the brevity of attention, opening fees now tend to be very high. In fact, the percentage of sires that will achieve a viable niche in Kentucky naturally being very small, the majority will turn out to have started at the highest fee they will ever command.

The agents and managers tell their clients that first-crop yearlings represent their one shot to land on the next Into Mischief or Tapit while he's still affordable. But if that were true, why don't they stick to their guns in the stallion's third and fourth seasons, when fees, books and medians are on a giddy slide? That, after all, is precisely when your vaunted “judgement” is about to be vindicated by his first runners.

That leaves as their only real pretext the self-fulfilling one that a stallion's debut book will generally prove the biggest and best of his life. But if you've truly identified a stallion who can upgrade his mares, then wouldn't you want one of the few yearlings going to market the year after he has demonstrated that ability to a waiting world?

Look, everyone is doing this stuff with their eyes open. The industrial model enables a stallion farm to charge a relatively lenient fee because they're going to process a ton of mares. But if a turf sprinter could last year cover 293 mares in his first book, then breeders already know that they had better stand out from the crowd.

In fairness, these high-volume operations would surely prefer a consistent spread of temperate support, through four or five years, to the current polarities. True, some of them have mastered the challenge impressively, maintaining the famous “pipeline”–whether with their own mares, or through the kind of imaginative incentive schemes introduced by the late B. Wayne Hughes for an ice-cold second-year stallion named Into Mischief. And the farms that do struggle to maintain traffic can hardly blame commercial breeders, who need to put bread on their table. So we can only conclude that it all starts with those directing investment at ringside.

So what can be done? Anecdotally, we're hearing of farms offering deals on second-year sires: two-for-one, even free seasons. We're also told that “nobody's talking about it.” Well, let's change that. At the end of this article you'll find an email address to share your views or experiences.

In the meantime, one man characteristically prepared not only to address the situation but to do something about is Price Bell of Mill Ridge. This farm has made a pretty spectacular return to the stallion game with Oscar Performance, and is now determined to help its latest recruit face the headwind in his second year.

Aloha West, winner of the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint at Del Mar in 2021, covered 83 mares in his first book. Emboldened by the quality they report in his first foals, Bell and the shareholders are offering a new incentive to keep the horse (an $8,500 cover) in the game.

“If you're the breeder of record of an Aloha West that wins a maiden special weight, as a 2- or 3-year-old, you'll get a free season the next year,” Bell explains. “In other words, it's after actually having done something that you'll get rewarded. As opposed to what you hear now, where it's like, 'You get a free season this year, but then if the horse makes it, you're going to have to pay a $20,000 stud fee to breed back to him.'

“Heaven forbid, Aloha West has 40 maiden winners his first crop? Then we'll have to give away 40 seasons. But it would also mean he's champion first-crop sire, so I'd love nothing more than that problem!”

The point is that it should all come down to belief.

“At the end of the day, if you stand a horse at stud, and support him with your mares, that's got to be because you believe that their foals will become successful racehorses,” Bell says. “And now that purse money is where it is, you can make that play. You won't always have to go to the commercial sales market. Yes, you've got more bills if you don't. But the reward, at the end, is potentially worth it.”

Somehow, somewhere along the line, people have come up with this idea that there's a difference between breeding for the racetrack and breeding for the ring. For anyone prepared to play a slightly longer game, however, there should be nothing more commercial than putting a winner under your mare.

“Absolutely,” Bell agrees. “For your mare and for your stallion, right? I mean, I don't have all the answers, anything like it–but I guess that is exactly my query about the whole thing.”

Aloha West found himself in a very tough intake: Flightline, Life Is Good, Jackie's Warrior, Jack Christopher, Epicenter. But it was no picnic for Oscar Performance to lock horns with Justify, Good Magic, City of Light. And he duly had to earn his stripes through the standard adversities.

“Oscar Performance actually had the same number of mares in his first and second years, which was like 120,” Bell says. “Just like Aloha West, because of the breadth, quality and belief of the shareholders, he was going to remain supported through those early years. He went 120, 120, 80, and then 60. And it was probably only as many as 60 because he had a winner at Keeneland in April. That got him another 10 mares or so in that fourth book.”

Which brings us back to a point made earlier: if you actually believe in what you were doing, the fourth season is exactly when you would be playing: you get the best value about a horse even as he's about to announce his prowess for all to see.

“And yet some horses don't even get to a fourth crop in America!” exclaims Bell. “I think my dad [Headley Bell] made that point when he bred to Arrogate in his fourth crop. There was a lot of uncertainty along the way, before he exploded with Cave Rock and all the rest. Nobody gets it right every time. Well, it's that yo-yo of chicken and feathers–you're still back at feathers. With the middle market so bifurcated, you stick to your guns because you're either going to be rewarded or you're not. There's no safe 'bond' play. If you hit, you're going to get well paid; and if you don't, you got nothing anyway.

Oscar Performance | Photos By Z

“That's why you do see some very shrewd breeders using horses in years three and four. And I'd like to believe that a little bit of that's happening right now. There's still a lot of mares to be booked. People have seen the incentives. They're like, 'Well, let's see her foal and then see what kind of deal I can get.' Which may also be a reaction from last year, which felt quite transitional.”

Arguably, the staggering books reported in 2023 felt as though one or two farms were making a point after seeing off the proposed mare cap. But it's certainly interesting to hear these imaginative perspectives from Mill Ridge, which last engaged with the sector way back with Diesis and Gone West. After all, the whole environment has seen wild changes in the meantime.

“We're all kind of sheep and if we're not careful we'll run ourselves right over a cliff,” Bell warns. “The whole beauty of the game, the whole reason we do it, is that ultimately no-one knows for sure where a good horse comes from. So if you believe in Aloha West, or any other horse, the whole quest should be about the finish line.

“People say, 'Oh, I have a commercial broodmare band, therefore I should only breed the first-year sires.' I mean, I appreciate that. But if everyone has that attitude, then nobody stands out. And I think it also makes you question your horsemanship, your judgment. So maybe we should just get back to believing what we believe in, and going for it–above all, like I said, because purses are really good.”

Bell, of course, has a heartening example front and center in the thriving Oscar Performance.

“Our shareholders believed in him and look how well they've been rewarded,” he remarks. “Oscar Performance was pigeonholed. He didn't really have much support from pinhookers, because they were like, 'What am I going to do with a turf horse?' But then he starts having 2-year-olds winning six-furlong stakes on dirt. So now he's being supported because he's exceeded expectations.

“And for Aloha West and Eclipse Thoroughbreds, it's always been the same: believe, and believe big. We really believe in this horse, in his brilliance and his opportunity to contribute to the breed. And that's why we want to reward those who believe with us.”

The horse's obvious challenge, commercially, is that he didn't race until the February of his 4-year-old campaign. But Bell points out that he was routinely posting bullet works as a juvenile, before being sidelined.

“So while it doesn't show in the form line, when you look at his work pattern, there's no doubting his 2-year-old quality,” he says. “And he's a gorgeous horse: not a typical Hard Spun, maybe, I think he gets more from the Speightstown mare: he's really typey and beautiful. So he's got the pedigree, he's got the brilliance, and then he has the great partners and other breeders who believe in him.”

The paradox is that second-season sires actually face one question mark fewer than the rookies who enjoy such clamorous attention: breeders have at least had the chance to see what kind of stock they're putting on the ground. But even that will have its limits: Lookin At Lucky could never overcome the lack of physical glamor in his stock even after he produced winners of the GI Kentucky Derby and GI Breeders' Cup Classic. In the end, different people pin their belief on different things. But where there is authentic belief, then it's logical for both sides of the deal to keep the faith and share the rewards.

“I mean, we're all looking for the golden ticket,” Bell concedes. “Maybe we need to recalibrate our expectations a little, and not always be searching for the lottery win. But I do think that if you're breeding a horse, you should at least believe that they're going to win a maiden race, right?”

Contribute to the debate: Do you have something to add about the first-year/second-year sire conundrum for publication? Email suefinley@thetdn.com.

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“I don't take this lightly at all,” said Albina, who is both general manager of Newtownanner's Kentucky farm and North American bloodstock manager of the operation. “It's a ton of fun when it works out. For me, the physical is what I'm shooting for as I can't predict performance. We want to produce what we would buy in a sales ring, want to produce as nice a horse as we can, whether it's to sell or to race. We raise them all as if we were going to race them all, then if we sell, we're confident we're selling the best product we can.

“Some people are traditionalists and breed to race or breed to sell, but there's not really a difference anymore. At the end of the day, everyone is technically a seller–unless you keep every single foal, you're going to see the marketplace, and that goes for either a filly or a colt. You'll eventually either breed your mare or market your stallion, so you must consider these things. I find there's a lot of commonality among the guys who do the best with this.”

Wamathaat (8, Speightstown–Special Me, by Unbridled's Song), to be bred to Into Mischief

We bought her from Tattersalls (220,000gns) in 2019 and brought her over here. At the time we bought her, I thought it was a family that was on the uptake and it has rewarded us. She's a half to Gina Romantica, Gift Box, Stonetastic, Special Forces. It looked like a family that was exploding. She's a very good-looking mare. She has a 2-year-old Twirling Candy filly we sold to Mike Akers last year (FTSAUG, $385,000) and a Candy Ride (Arg) colt that is very nice.

She went to Into Mischief last year and this year is going to go back to him. It's hard to go wrong with Into Mischief. (MGISW) Gina Romantica obviously has continued to run very well and so we kind of wanted to bring that out of her. We tried the Candy Ride with her and there will probably be more of him in her future, maybe some Gun Runner in there, but for right now we went to Into Mischief and we'll see what happens.

Toni Tools (10, Roaring Fever–Patine, by Smart Strike), to be bred to Gun Runner

We bought her for $330,000 at the (2023) Fasig-Tipton Mixed Sale. She is the dam of Candied, a Grade I winner of the Alcibiades. She's going to Gun Runner. It's a natural inclination from a body perspective, plus we get a little more consistency from Gun Runner than Candy Ride (sire of Candied). She's a young mare and deserves to be bred to the best sire out there; she warrants the money. This is her time.

Toni Tools as a 2-year-old on the track | Sarah Andrew

Flourish (17, Distorted Humor–Viviana, by Nureyev), to be bred to Into Mischief

She's the dam of (MGSW & GISP) Fulsome, an Into Mischief millionaire. She's going back to him for obvious reasons. She has an Into Mischief sister to Fulsome on the ground and basically this is the third year in a row we've gone to him with her.

Kosmo's Buddy (19, Outflanker–Vaulted, by Allen's Prospect), to be bred to Gun Runner

She's the dam of (Horse of the Year) Knicks Go. She recently had a Paynter colt and will be going back to Gun Runner. It was more of a physical match for us. She's not the biggest mare in the world, but she transfers a lot of the stallion through. I think if you breed her to a strong stallion, that is pretty bulletproof for her. Gun Runner is the horse for me and is the hot stallion right now. This mating was more of a physical one than from a pedigree perspective. In the past we'd bred her to Justify and Ghostzapper, trying to follow the Awesome Again, but we think Gun Runner makes a lot of sense as she brings out a lot of the stallion. We all try to figure it out; you develop your theories and see what has validity or not.

Kadira (19, Kafwain–Raw Gold, by Rahy), to be bred to Tapit

This is the dam of Paola Queen, winner of the Test. She is going to Tapit. We loved Flatter (sire of Paola Queen) and he was very generous to us, but he's gone. We sold one Flatter filly out of Kadira and retained another. She's in foal to Tapit and going back to him, because of the Pulpit/A.P. Indy factor. She has very beautiful foals and he will be a good match. When the mare has already proven herself, it makes my job easy.

Malibu Pier (17, Malibu Moon–Blue Moon {Fr}, by Lomitas {GB}), to be bred to Forte

She's the dam of Malibu Stacy, who was Grade II placed, and Coasted, who was Grade-I placed in the Breeders' Cup. She's an older mare, but we bred her to Medaglia d'Oro and got a nice filly. She's in foal to Jackie's Warrior now and is going to be bred back to Forte. I thought the body types matched well. We like the Medaglia d'Oro (yearling) filly very much and with Forte a first-year sire we wanted to breed to and it being a very hard season to get a hold of, we wanted to make sure we used it well.

Meg Fitz (9, Tapit–Meguial {Arg}, by Roy), to be bred to Justify

This is a Tapit mare we bred. She's in foal to Olympiad right now; we'll go back to Justify because she's a half-sister to (GISW) I Want Revenge, more than a half-sister. Her first foal is a Mendelssohn, who was second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (Real Men Violen). We're excited about the Olympiad. She had a Speightstown sell for $600,000 at Saratoga last year and has been very generous to us so far, so we're going to Justify since that's a Scat Daddy line. She brings the best out of every stallion we've bred her to and has beautiful foals.

Kateri (12, Indian Charlie–Sue's Good News, by Woodman), to be bred to Cody's Wish

She's a mare we've had her entire career; again, very generous to us. She's a stunning mare, an Indian Charlie mare. We sold a Tiznow out of her for $420,000 as a 2-year-old, a Curlin for $725,000. Obviously, her best racehorse to date is (GSW & GISP) Souper Sensational (by Curlin). We bred her to Curlin again and are retaining that 2022 colt to race. He's in training with Robbie Medina. She has a yearling filly by Curlin and went back to him again. That would have been four years in a row to Curlin if we went this year, so we're going to Cody's Wish. She puts a great body on a horse and we thought he was a standout physically. If you went to see that horse, you bred to him.

Shopit's 2021 colt in the sales ring | Fasig-Tipton

Shopit (9, Yes It's True–Shop Here, by Dehere), to be bred to Into Mischief

Dam of (SW & MGISP) Shoplifted. It's probably not that interesting, but we just breed her to Into Mischief every year since it already worked. She has amazing foals.

Afleet Maggi (17, Afleet Alex–Mindset, by Coronado's Quest), to be bred to Nyquist

Dam of Grade I winner Dream Tree. We bought her, have an Uncle Mo filly out of her that I was pretty happy with. She went back to Uncle Mo, but aborted. This year, we went to Nyquist. With him taking off last year, we think he's now done enough to warrant being bred to her.

Fancier (13, Bernstein–Princess Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus), to be bred to Flightline

She is the dam of (GISW) Get Her Number by Dialed In, which is the Mineshaft/A.P. Indy line. She has a Tapit colt and is back in foal to Tapit, but this year we'll be breeding her to Flightline. We typically wouldn't breed a mare of this caliber to a second-year sire; we'd go to a proven or a first -year sire, but he's going to defy the odds. He has a lot of buzz, a lot of industry support, and looks exactly what you think a horse of his race record is going to look like. I think he'll defy the trend; I don't think he'll have the usual slump of a second and third year. We're seeing if we can improve the Tapit we have with him. We think he's a good fit for this mare.

Go Go Princess (4, Justify–Kosmo's Buddy, by Outflanker), to be bred to Mage

She's more than a half to Knicks Go and we're going to breed her to Mage. The reasoning is she's a very typical Justify, she's an even leggier version of him. I think from a body perspective, she is a beautiful mare and we had a little flexibility on who to breed to. We're very excited about Mage at Airdrie. A first-year Derby winner is one of the soundest bets in our sport. We're actually sending two to Mage.

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Never far from the leaders while traveling comfortably in midpack, she launched her winning bid entering the lane, and despite contact with Tapit Jenallie (Tapit), kicked home to win with open air between them. A jockey's objection from the runner-up was quickly dismissed. West Omaha (West Coast) kept on to collect third.

With her victory here, it tallies as jockey Keith Asmussen's first career Graded stakes win as well as give conditioner D. Wayne Lukas the hat trick on the day.

#7 Lemon Muffin ($58.20) breaks her maiden impressively in the Honeybee Stakes (G3)! The three-year-old filly by @AirdrieStud's Collected earns 50 Kentucky Oaks points for trainer D. Wayne Lukas with @keithasm7 in the irons. pic.twitter.com/l3HLSxaL1l

— TVG (@TVG) February 24, 2024

Sales history: $20,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP, $140,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. O-Aaron Sones; B-Mr. & Mrs. Theodore R. Kuster & Collected Syndicate (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas.

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Shedaresthedevil, 7, Daredevil—Starship Warpspeed, by Congrats. To be bred to Into Mischief.

When we planned Shedaresthedevil's first mating, we chose Gun Runner because we loved the physical match and we also liked the Storm Cat and A.P. Indy in her pedigree for him.   She foaled January 29th, and the filly is everything that we had hoped and dreamed she could be! She is a big, strong chestnut filly with great bone, a big hip and tons of quality!  For 2024, she is going to Into Mischief. Shedaresthedevil's size and scope will match up well with Into Mischief, we believe. And I think we may already have Gun Runner penciled in for 2025!

Songbird, 11, Medaglia d'Oro—Ivanavinalot, by West Acre. To be bred to Gun Runner.  

2023 was a great year for Songbird and everyone connected to her, as she was inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame!  Currently, she is in foal to Gun Runner and is going back to Gun Runner. We think her high cruising speed will complement his, as some of his best runners are out of mares with speed. We also think Gun Runner will add a bit of scope and stretch to the foals, which would be a nice addition.  We have retained some fillies out of Songbird as future broodmares, and her first colt (by Curlin) sold for $1 million this past September, so this mare has a lot in the pipeline.

I'll Take Charge, 12, Indian Charlie—Take Charge Lady, by Dehere. 2024 mating undecided.

We bought her as a yearling ($2.2 million, Keeneland September), and with her amazing pedigree we always hoped and planned for her to be a long-term broodmare play.  Thankfully she has fulfilled her destiny, producing GII winner and GI-placed Charge It for us, as well as selling a $1.7 million yearling (by into Mischief) this past September.   She is in foal to Into Mischief on a late cover, so we have decided to see the foal and decide on her future mating at that time, with the main options being Tapit, Into Mischief, or Gun Runner.

Graceful Princess, 8, Tapit—Havre de Grace, by Saint Liam. To be bred to Curlin.

She is an important mare to us, being a Grade III winner out of Havre de Grace, who was so special to me. She is in foal to Gun Runner, and that was an easy choice with the success of Tapit mares and Gun Runner. he is scheduled to go to Curlin for 2024, both on the physical match being excellent, and the fact that he's done well with Tapit mares also, producing the likes of Cody's Wish.

Magical World, 14, Distorted Humor—Pleasant Home, by Seeking the Gold. To be bred to Good Magic.

Magical World is a mare we own in partnership with Three Chimneys Farm, and she was rested last season after having a late May foal. She is going to Good Magic for 2024, mainly because we all really liked the physical match there, since she should give plenty of size and substance to the equation. On the pedigree angle, the cross gives a 4×4 double to Danzig, which we found in three of his graded runners so far, including Kentucky Derby winner Mage.

Hard Not To Love, 8, Hard Spun—Loving Vindication, by Vindication. To be bred to Tapit.

We own this mare in partnership with Gainesway Farm. She is in foal to Curlin and is going to Tapit in 2024. As you know we love Tapit, and the only person who loves Tapit more is Antony Beck, so it was an easy choice!  She also has a lovely Tapit yearling filly, which made the decision even easier.

Tap Gun, 9, Tapit—Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway. To be bred to Justify.

As a half-sister to Gun Runner,  she was another of those long-term broodmare plays when we bought her as a yearling. She is in foal to Quality Road and is booked to Justify for 2024. She is a mare who really appreciates a robust stallion who can throw some size like Quality Road and Justify can do. She has a lovely Quality Road yearling filly.

Wicked Whisper, 7, Liam's Map—Zayanna, by Bernardini. To be bred Curlin.

What we loved about this mare when we purchased her was how precocious she was as a race filly. She won first out at Saratoga and followed it up by winning the G1 Frizette.  She is in foal to Gun Runner and scheduled to go back to Curlin for 2024. She has a very powerful and racy Curlin yearling filly, and the cross is doing well, especially with Eclipse Award-winning Idiomatic putting an exclamation point on it! She is a lovely mare who we have high hopes for.

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A respectable fourth at 27-1 in the GI Kentucky Derby, last term's GIII Matt Winn S. winner and GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby runner-up exited his second-place finish in the Travers with bone bruising, per David Fiske, longtime advisor to owner/breeder Ron Winchell.

“He was walking visibly off after the Travers,” Fiske said. “Got him back to the barn and whipped out the X-ray machine. We were all standing there looking at the X-rays and everybody looked at one another and went, 'Do you see anything? I don't see anything.' So, that was a big relief that it wasn't anything more serious. We got him down to Lexington and he was diagnosed with some bone bruising.”

He added, “We weren't gonna make any significant races at the end of the year, so we said, 'Let's just give him as much time off as he needs.'”

Following approximately nine weeks of recommended downtime, a positron emission tomography (PET) scan revealed that Disarm still “had some spots that lit up on him” and he was given an additional 30 days off before returning to training.

The 'TDN Rising Star' now has a pair of four-furlong breezes under his belt since returning to the worktab in New Orleans, stopping the clock in :53.80 (42/43) Jan. 8 and :50.80 (18/26) Jan. 18, respectively.

“We gave him some extra time and now he's back,” Fiske said. “He looks great, travels great and has always been a great-looking horse. Hopefully, we can make some noise with him this year.”

Disarm recorded four straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures last year, beginning with his aforementioned effort on the first Saturday in May. He earned a career-high 103 Beyer over a muddy surface in the Travers, his first career start racing with blinkers. The handsome chestnut has posted a record of 9-2-3-2 and career earnings of $1,000,200.

While acknowledging that it's still very early days, Fiske said that this summer's GI Whitney S. at Saratoga, a race won by his leading sire in 2017, could be in play for the Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred.

“Given the level at which he ran last year, if he can get back to that, then you'd expect to see him in some of the bigger or biggest races around,” Fiske said. “It would be kinda cool if we could get him cranked up for the Whitney, but that's a long way off. We're gonna need to get some more works. He's still pretty early stages.”

One of nine 'Rising Stars' for Gun Runner, Disarm is a half-brother to Venezuelan champion stayer Tap Daddy (Scat Daddy), who was also a stakes winner and graded-stakes placed on these shores. Disarm's dam Easy Tap, a $300,000 FTKJUL yearling purchase, won one of five career starts.

The Gun Runner over Tapit cross, two of the best to ever carry the maroon-and-white Winchell silks, is already off to a flying start via GI Cotillion S. heroine Society; MGSW and GI Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint third Wicked Halo; GSW & GISP Red Route One; and GSW & GISP Il Miracolo.

#DISARM 1/8 @fairgroundsnola
1st recorded work since Travers S. @Saratogaraces1 https://t.co/cxU56fDwj5 pic.twitter.com/LZ3pgrXTcs

— DJFiske (@DJFiske) January 8, 2024

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Sea Gazer's dam Seafree (Chief Seattle) collected four wins including the GII La Canada S. and was third in the GI Santa Margarita Invitational H. She produced MSW Interest Free (Exchange Rate) who is responsible for SW Market Analysis (Honor Code). Seafree is a half-sister to GI Belmont S. and GI Travers S. runner-up Fly Down (Mineshaft).

Magic on Tap began his stallion career at Pleasant Acres Stallions last year and stands for $5,000. His dam, GISW Aubby K (Street Sense), brought the fourth highest return–$2.4 million–at the '15 Fasig-Tipton Fall Mixed Sale when she was purchased by Summer Wind Equine with him in-utero.

“The moment Magic on Tap stepped off the van upon his arrival at Pleasant Acres Stallions we knew he would produce exceptional foals,” said Director of Stallion Services Christine Jones. “His very first foal is a filly with good bone, great conformation, and looks to be very racy! She is everything we expected!”

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