It tells you a lot about our business that the majority of the two dozen stallions operating at this level can only do so because they have yet to send a single runner into the starting gate. A quarter of these we immediately set to one side, as absolute beginners, because those received separate consideration in the opening instalment of this series. Of the remaining 18, another eight belong to those preceding intakes that remain untested by runners.

Some of these have been taking the precautionary clips often necessary to keep young sires in the game, as commercial breeders maintain as safe a distance as possible from the dangers that accompany racetrack exposure.

You can see that template magnified in one of the two sires who are closest to the moment of truth. AUTHENTIC started out in 2021 as the most expensive in his intake, at $75,000. This year he takes his third consecutive cut, down to $50,000 (from $60,000 and previously $70,000). Yet has he become any less likely to sire racehorses, if you send him a mare this spring, relative to when he retired as Horse of the Year? Far from it, if the market reception is any guide: he duly looked after investors by processing 91 yearlings (120 offered) at a median $235,000 (average $286,076), clear at the top of the class.

Authentic | Sarah Andrew

We all know how the system works. But if you genuinely thought Authentic good value at $75,000, well, you'd better get right back to him now that his fee is down by one-third. After all, a true commercial opportunist should be anticipating a rising tide from all the juvenile winners that will surely be emerging from a debut book of 229 mares, just a couple short of making him the busiest stallion in North America that year!

Of course, Spendthrift operates the model so dexterously that Authentic has meanwhile maintained demand, at his more lenient fees, with books of 202 and 198 mares. With 165 live foals to go to war, he surely gives the farm every chance of a third consecutive champion freshman.

MCKINZIE has bucked the trend by retaining his initial fee of $30,000 for a fourth year. He starred at the sales, sending no fewer than 144 into the ring-a staggering percentage of his 174 live foals. That's expressive of the commercial package he had offered in combining knockout looks with 11 triple-digit Beyers, plus Grade Is at two, three and four. He duly sold 110 at a median $90,000, reaching an average of $149,157 after blowing the doors off with a $1.2 million colt at the September Sale. (Both indices beaten only by Authentic in the class.) We've all seen market discoveries sink without trace, over the years, but McKinzie has certainly raised expectations and duly maintained numbers in the meantime, with books of 171 and 168.

The next intake is also represented by two sires, now preparing their first yearlings for auction. One of their peers, Essential Quality, actually remains beyond even this level and duly topped the weanling averages, but CHARLATAN filled second place in selling 19 of 22 at a median $175,000 and average $206,052. That was what he had to do, having similarly starting out behind only Essential Quality in terms of fee, and he's another whose original investors have been spared a depreciation: he remains $50,000 for 2024.

Charlatan emerged from the same crop and barn as Authentic to emulate the GI Arkansas Derby-GI Malibu S. double of Omaha Beach the previous year, and was only narrowly outstayed when stretching his speed again in the G1 Saudi Cup. Unfortunately he then suffered another setback, but nobody forgot his talent and he started with books of 222 and 223. Breeders evidently recalled that he had himself been a $700,000 yearling out of a genuine Grade I mare.

Maxfield | Sarah Andrew

MAXFIELD takes a mild trim, to $35,000 from $40,000, despite selling 11 of a dozen weanlings at a median $110,000/average $165,181. His farm tends to be more conservative with its books, so 165 mares for his first year looked like a full subscription, with another 134 in his second. Maxfield was beaten by just four horses across 11 starts, won a Grade I as a juvenile by five and a half lengths, and above all is out of a Bernardini half-sister to the admirable stallion Sky Mesa (very fine family overall).

Four youngsters who covered their first mares last spring assembled books that appeared, after the mare cap debacle, to be making a point of some kind-albeit one that may be lost on anyone who ends up with only an average specimen to bring to saturated catalogues.

With 262 partners, EPICENTER was behind only his frenzied studmate Golden Pal among American sires, his championship campaign having featured a standout GI Travers (112 Beyer). His sire has gone beyond reach, for most, and I love the sturdy European influences sowing his deeper family-though I can't imagine that those names were front and central for many others!

His neighbor JACK CHRISTOPHER was nearly as hectic with 247 mares. He must have been an easy sell, even his solitary defeat in the GI Haskell counting in his favor as confirming him to be all speed. He'd have had plenty of support had he retired on the spot after a daylight debut success at Saratoga, and beat a good one when returning for what proved his final start a year later. Both he and Epicenter take the customary trim, from $45,000 to $40,000, to help keep the door revolving.

Jack Christopher | Sara Gordon

Jack Christopher represents Munnings, of course, and it's good to see some of Speightstown's later sons contesting the legacy.

Just like Charlatan, OLYMPIAD was a $700,000 yearling. His debut book of 228, making him the busiest stallion outside Ashford, shows that plenty of other farms are prepared to go all out for numbers, given the chance. He matured through the grades with eight triple-figure Beyers, but the clincher is Chic Shirine as third dam. By this stage of the series, you probably won't be surprised that proven stallions populate the Value Podium, but this guy looks a profoundly wholesome prospect in retaining a fee of $35,0000.

Though JACKIE'S WARRIOR had to settle for “just” 182 mares, he could comfort himself that they included Beholder! He's another to take a clip, to $45,000 from $50,000, but still finds himself standing for more than his own sire. Even so, he will remain in demand as a Grade I winner at Saratoga three years running, an unprecedented achievement gilded by a 28-year-old stakes record in the Hopeful.

Right, now let's get onto some sires that have actually demonstrated some competence to replicate the genetic prowess we should be looking for at this kind of fee.

Of these, the one who has barely started is OMAHA BEACH. He's just completed his freshman season with fourth place in a table dominated by Spendthrift sires, on the face of it hardly measuring up to his status as the most expensive of the quartet. But I'm not alone in retaining high hopes, judged from the fact that his fee has moved back up to $40,000 for 2024, having been allowed to slide from an opening $45,000 to $30,000.

Because while he has only had a couple of stakes winners, he has a class-high 11 black-type performers from 64 starters–a much smaller footprint than his three studmates (Vino Rosso, late bloomer though he was, has fielded 92!)–and these include four at graded stakes level. Omaha Beach presumably received rather more Classic/two-turn mares than his peers, and it's reasonable to expect consolidation from here. It's a rare horse nowadays that can win Grade Is at both six and nine furlongs, and his family overflows with quality.

Obviously, he has volume behind him, standing where he does, but that was partly a function of what seemed pretty lenient pricing throughout. His second crop of yearlings held up very well, at a median $105,000/average $156,508 for 95 sold (116 offered). That keeps Omaha Beach miles clear of his intake, some of whom have been quickly embarrassed by their opening fees. Those who kept the faith in the meantime (185 mares in his fourth book last spring) are entitled remain optimistic, the only caveat being the overall underperformance of this particular class of freshmen, judged by graded stakes winners. It's now over to Omaha Beach to convert his promise into a headliner or two.

City of Light | Lane's End

A similar remark might have been made, this time last year, about CITY OF LIGHT–and, heading into the Breeders' Cup, he had still not justified an against-the-tide hike from $40,000 to $60,000 in 2022. That was the reward for a sensational debut (average $337,698/median $260,000) at the yearling sales. With his book down to 85 last spring, from 132, he was slashed to $35,000 for 2024. But then along came Fierceness, and suddenly everything is looking much more cheerful.

City Of Light may have a few later developers, but 18 black-type performers from no more than 127 to have made the starting gate is a very fair ratio. His fee cut was among several such gestures by his farm after polarisation at the sales (where his third crop were down to a median $75,000/average $126,269 for 63 sold of 75) made it feel as though fees generally remain too high.

In his (very competitive) intake, one who has only elevated his reputation is GIRVIN, who started in Florida at $7,500 and is up to $30,000 (from $20,000) after consolidating the breakout that earned him a ticket to Kentucky. From limited materials, he is so far operating at 6 percent stakes winners (including Grade I scorer Faiza) to named foals, narrowly bettered only by Good Magic and Army Mule in his class.

Girvin's tragic sibling Midnight Bourbon showed what their unraced dam Catch the Moon must be contributing to the equation, and this year Catch the Moon's sister produced Brightwork to lend further Grade I luster to the page. Everyone should duly be fully reconciled by now to Girvin's unfashionable (but superbly-bred) sire. Those who bred to Girvin in his second year in Ocala, at $6,000, certainly can't complain about a yearling average of $92,411 (stretched by a $475,000 colt, but a $41,000 median itself very respectable) for 17 sold from 21 offered. Girvin is firmly on his way, through the roof by the restrained standards of his farm with 181 mares (up from 86) last spring, and only an even more upwardly mobile studmate has kept him off the Value Podium.

Violence | Sarah Andrew

Before we get to that, we have three horses that have by now had ample opportunity to show where they fit in the marketplace: Liam's Map, Maclean's Music and VIOLENCE.

Not that the latter has remotely settled, in terms of pricing! Initially elevated to $60,000 for 2024, he has meanwhile slipped back into this bracket at $40,000. The reasons have been cogently explained, and leave him looking big value as the sire of two new stallions in Kentucky this year, not to mention one with an obvious shot at the freshman title in Volatile. Violence is actually cheaper than his champion son Forte, a rookie whose supporters would surely be delighted if he can produce as many fast horses by the time he reaches the equivalent point of his career. Violence's book will be managed appropriately to his circumstances, but purely in terms of value he looks of imperative interest to eligible mares. For this is a proven achiever at this level–both on the track and in the ring, where he moved his yearling yield up to a median of $80,000 (from $60,000) and average $121,642 (from $97,614). That's impressive for a stallion with seven crops in play. Violence was No. 13 on the general sires' list and the caveats sound very manageable.

His studmate MACLEAN'S MUSIC also looks a fair price at $40,000, after a couple of years at $50,000, considering that he has four sons at stud in the Bluegrass. We've already noted one of them, Jackie's Warrior, getting plenty of trade at a higher fee, while Drain The Clock served no fewer than 199 mares in his debut season. Maclean's Music himself had to settle for 144 last spring, but covered 421 over the previous two seasons after dwindling to 57 in 2020, so the good old “pipeline” is well and truly loaded. In fact, no fewer than 183 live foals in 2022 give him the single biggest battalion of juveniles for the forthcoming campaign. So this looks a pretty shrewd time to stay aboard with a horse who processed as many as 104 of 131 yearlings at an average $118,739 ($70,000 median sound enough, against a $25,000 conception fee).

LIAM'S MAP also maintained his sales performance, selling 80 of 102 offered at a $100,000 median/$124,024 average–conceived at $30,000–albeit down somewhat on the previous crop, who had knocked it out of the park ($130,000/$166,724). Standing at $40,000 for a third year running, he once again proved a reliable source of stakes action this year, chiefly with maturing stock. His next task is to emulate the Hill 'n' Dale pair, who have been in the game rather longer, as a sire of sires.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze: HARD SPUN
Danzig–Turkish Tryst (Turkoman)
Darley $35,000

So I guess he's not going to change the world, at this stage–but I really don't see much better value to prove your mare, or just to get yourself a racehorse. I know that's not everyone's priority, but the fact is that the last big son of Danzig has now turned 20 and that leaves us diminishing access to the great patriarch.

Hard Spun | Darley

Hard Spun missed a return to the top 10 sires only by cents, relatively speaking, and it was a measure of what he can do for a mare that a horse with as plain a page as Two Phil's could break into the elite of his crop, and now become Hard Spun's fourth son at stud in Kentucky.

It's incredible that a horse with a dozen domestic Grade I winners has never gone higher than $45,000 in the decade since he made the sojourn in Japan that (in hindsight) cost him vital momentum. In that time, he has finished as high as fourth in the general sires' list, but he doesn't get precocious horses and has settled at a median $67,500 (strong six-figure average) with his last couple of yearling crops.

Hard Spun nonetheless produced another 26 black-type performers in 2023, and cumulatively stands at No. 7 among active sires with several ratios (for instance, graded stakes winners/performers at 2.7/5.7 percent of named foals) uncannily in step with his old buddy Street Sense, who maintains a fee of $60,000.

It's gratifying to see that he remains fully subscribed, 151 mares last year showing that there are still plenty of breeders out there who recognise the importance not just of getting a winner under their mare, but a high-class winner. Hard Spun's stock goes on all surfaces, at all distances, and with those storied Darby Dan bloodlines behind him, it's no surprise that he should meanwhile be emerging as a broodmare influence. His daughters have lately produced a top-class miler in Europe in Alcohol Free (Ire) (No Nay Never), and no less an animal than Good Magic.

Somehow the world has spun against this horse, but it's very hard to see why.

Silver: AMERICAN PHAROAH
Pioneerof The Nile–Littleprincessemma (Yankee Gentleman)
Ashford Stud $50,000

Well, you can't win them all–even if you're Coolmore. Who could have said, for certain, which of their two Triple Crown winners would best replicate the talent that had confirmed the series to remain within the competence of a modern Thoroughbred? It was actually this one, having ended a generation of doubt, that started at the higher fee: he opened at $200,000 in 2016, and Justify at $150,000 three years later. The latter had been trimmed to $100,000 by the time he launched his first runners, in 2022; and American Pharoah had taken a proportionately deeper cut at the equivalent stage, to $110,000 for 2019. Their paths since, however, have forked radically. Justify is now out of sight, listed as private; and Pharoah enters 2024 suffering the indignity of yet another cut, this time down to $50,000 from $60,000.

American Pharoah | Sarah Andrew

Now there's no way that you can say he's any kind of dud, en route to oblivion. He finished 2023 at No. 6 in the general sires' list, with a seventh Grade I winner supplemented by no fewer than six others placed at the elite level–and that's taking no account of his success in Australia, including a G1 Victoria Derby winner. Yes, like most stallions on this farm, the volume behind him proves a double-edged sword when it comes to his ratios.

His 11 stakes winners arrived at 3.7 percent, pretty unexciting given the quality he must have been working with. But he continues to get his superior/graded action at a superior rate to ever-fashionable studmate Munnings, for instance, who commands a 50 percent higher fee.

The exotic seeding of American Pharoah's family was always liable to make the owners of top-class mares a little nervous, but his dam has proved a consistent producer so something has come together in dynamic fashion. Further action was plainly required after he assembled no more than 129 mares with last year's reduction, but if able to maintain his current sales performance–yearling median $150,000 with both his last two crops, averaging $210,164 in 2023–then you'll be looking at a very fair yield at his current price.

Both American Pharoah and Justify have proved effective sires on turf. If this fee proves a last roll of the dice, then I might impudently suggest once again that American Pharoah could be worth a spin in Co. Tipperary. But he's now within reach of a different type of American breeder, and that may well grant him a new lease of life.

Gold: UPSTART
Flatter–Party Silks (Touch Gold)
Airdrie Stud $30,000

So what is it, really, that we can hope to find at this level? I mean, we're obviously excluding “fantasy” breeding to untested stallions. But is there perhaps a horse out there hinting that he's pressing against the ceiling, and might soon be inaccessible? The other pair on the podium, admirable as they are, hardly fit that category. To me, however, Upstart is the dude in this tier who has the chance of elevating himself to a higher level yet.

Upstart | EquiSport

Maybe you were disappointed that he didn't follow through the 2022 deeds of Zandon and Kathleen O (among 63 named foals conceived at $10,000) with his next crop of sophomores? Well, that's because his third crop comprised just 27 live foals. Even so they included Prerequisite, a $47,000-to-$350,000 pinhook who won the GII Wonder Again S. on her first start outside maiden company, and then missed a Grade I by three parts of a length next time. Meanwhile, as we knew to expect from his own template (multiple Grade I-placed in three consecutive seasons), his mature stock kept him in the game with wins in races as resonant as the GII Clark and GII Woodward S.

He has punched conspicuously above weight at the sales, averaging $90,900 in 2022, but traded at just $39,434 from a modest book last year. But he's now ready to open a new cycle. His incoming yearlings emerge from a book of 151, saturation point for a farm that resists the opportunity of exposing their clients by inundating catalogues. Hiked to $30,000 last spring, he entertained another 153. When you consider what he has been doing with mediocre materials, this is a stallion on the point of a big move.

Despite a dual Grade I runner-up among his first juveniles, Upstart somehow remained bumping along at $10,000. Even so, his 13 stakes winners at 5.2 percent of named foals and 26 black-type performers at 10.4 percent compares with 5/12.2 percent for the lavishly supported Nyquist (standing at $85,000) in his own class; 4/9 percent for Practical Joke ($45,000) and 5.2/8.5 percent for Arrogate in the following intake; 5.9/9.4 percent for Justify and 4/11.1 percent for Bolt d'Oro ($60,000) in the one after that.

This is a horse that gets stock onto the track, and into the winner's circle: 53 percent winners to lifetime starters, compared with 46 percent for the soaraway hero of his intake, Not This Time; 41 percent for Nyquist; 43 percent even for the stellar Gun Runner, the same for Practical Joke, just 39 percent for Arrogate.

Upstart was cleverly named and, it now seems, aptly too. There are some curiosities sowing his family, but it's demonstrably all working. Perhaps the farm that gave us the sires of Uncle Mo and Into Mischief has again tapped into an unexpected seam of gold. With an incoming spike in quality and quantity, catch him while you can.

The post Value Sires For 2024 Part 6: Reaching The Snowline appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The procedure was recommended to expedite the healing process and ensure his long-term soundness. The findings were made during precautionary radiographs that were performed after missing training and scratching from the Breeders' Cup Classic.

“We expect a quick recovery and return to normal activities for Arcangelo,” said Bill Farish. “We do not anticipate this having any impact on his 2024 breeding season.”

Arcangelo, who arrived at Lane's End in good order upon his retirement, will return to the stallion barn following the surgery to recover.

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An eleven-year-old son of Distorted Humor, Khozan was the leading 2-year-old sire in Florida when his first crop ran in 2019 and has continued to be the Sunshine State's leading general sire every year since.

Represented by 12 black-type runners this year, including GIII Delaware Oaks winner Foggy Night, Me and Mr. C, winner of the Kentucky Downs Preview S. and R Harper Rose, recent winner of the Susan's Girl S., Khozan's progeny has earned $5.1 million this year.

Journeyman's 2024 roster also includes GSW Uncle Chuck (Uncle Mo) whose first foals will be yearlings in 2024. His fee will remain at $6,500, while American Pharoah's full-brother and Irish multiple group stakes placed St Patrick's Day (Pioneerof the Nile), with his first-crop racing this year, will be set at $3,500. GISP Chance It (Currency Swap), whose first foals will be yearlings, will once again stand for $2,000.

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A son of Scat Daddy, Flameaway is fourth on North America's freshman sire list with 15 first-crop winners. His 2-year-olds include MGSW Dreamfyre, winner of the GIII Surfer Girl S. Oct. 8 who is pointing to the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Flameaway is one of only two U.S. freshmen of 2023 with a graded stakes winner to date. Flameaway will have limited season availability at $15,000 as Breeders' Cup results could warrant a change in fee.

Dialed In, the top freshman sire of 2016, has a number of top runners on his CV, including 2023's GI Hollywood Gold Cup S. winner Defunded–second in the Sept. 30 GI Awesome Again S.–and GI Kentucky Oaks runner-up Gambling Girl, who also finished third in the GI Coaching Club American Oaks.

Darby Dan stallions for 2024 with fees:

• Bee Jersey–Private
• Copper Bullet–$7,500
• Country House–$7,500
• Dialed In–$15,000
• Flameaway–$15,000
• Higher Power–$10,000
• Leofric–$7,500
• Modernist–$10,000
• Tale of Ekati–Private
• Tale of Silence–Private
• Tapiture–$7,500
• Title Ready–Private

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Olympiad, a Grade I-winning son of Speightstown, will stand his second season at stud for $35,000. Breeders sent over 200 mares to be part of the 5-year-old's inaugural book. Meanwhile, McKinzie, a four-time Grade I-winning son of Street Sense, will stand for $30,000 after his first yearlings went to auction this year.

Young stallions Drain the Clock (Maclean's Music), Raging Bull (Fr) (Dark Angel {Ire}) and Spun to Run (Hard Spun) will each stand for $10,000.

GI Belmont S. hero Tapwrit will stand for $7,500 and rounding out the roster is GI Breeders' Cup Mile winner Karakontie (Jpn) (Bernstein), whose fee will be announced at a later time.

Here is the complete list of the 2024 stallion roster and advertised fees:

• Tapit — $185,000
• Olympiad — $35,000
• McKinzie — $30,000
• Drain the Clock — $10,000
• Raging Bull — $10,000
• Spun to Run — $10,000
• Tapwrit — $7,500
• Karakontie — To be announced

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Awesome Slew, Florida's No. 1-ranked First Crop Sire, will once again stand for $4,000 S&N.

Seeking the Soul, a Charles Fipke homebred, will stand for $5,000 S&N. He welcomed first foals in 2022.

Win Win Win, like Seeking the Soul, saw his first foals hit the ground in 2022 and will stand the upcoming breeding season for $5,000 S&N.

Stud fees for Adios Charlie, Jess's Dream, and Noble Bird will be $3,000 S&N, and Dak Attack and Battalion Runner will stand for $2,500 S&N.

The post Ocala Stud Sets 2023 Stallion Roster appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Getting those mares was the hard part, and that process played out over the last four or five months, an annual courting ritual of farms and breeders. It includes behind-the-scenes hustling, heavy-duty advertising campaigns, and some occasional arm twisting or deal making, because except for a handful of elite or popular sires that breeders are banging doors down to get into, most stallions need mares, usually as many as possible to fill books that can sometimes number more than 200.

The Jockey Club will take an active role in changing that somewhat, beginning with stallions born in 2020 and later. The organization issued a ruling that will limit books to 140 mares a year when those colts go to stud in a few years. Well, that's if TJC ends up prevailing, because there are some lawsuits, brought by a few farms that would like to keep things as they are now, floating around to challenge that rule. Some of these farms are big-time players and they're not going to go away quietly, but that's a story for another day.

In the meantime, stud farms need as many mares as they can get to stallions, as I said. It's either to recoup their initial investments in these stallions or, if they're lucky, to make money. The most commercial stallion prospects–the champions and “horses of a lifetime”–cost an arm and a leg to procure off the track, and lesser recruits are always in danger of not getting enough mares to cover costs. That's why you see so many ads for them in that important first year they enter stud. These days, you see even more of this on social media, where everyone seems to be attending one stallion show or another and then posting amateur photos that in many cases will make farms cringe, but, hey, that's the price of publicity, and most folks on Twitter or Facebook see everything as either “sexy,” “handsome,” or a “hunk,” so it's not all bad.

Stud farms need to front load new horses, meaning they will try to breed as many mares as they can, not only for the income it generates but also to guarantee that they have as many first-crop runners as possible to have a chance at success.

Everyone, of course, wants to find the next Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}), who had a phenomenal run in 2021 with his first 2-year-olds, but most horses are destined for failure, at least in the commercial sense–which is how the breeding industry operates. You've probably noticed that even some leading freshman sires have been sold abroad after they couldn't sustain the pace constructed for them with boatloads of mares, numbers which most are unlikely to see again, in their first books. And once the numbers and quality drop off, so too does sire performance, for the most part.

If a farm has an elite stallion or a particularly attractive first-crop horse, a stallion director sometimes might let you in to him if you'll send a mare or two to a lesser stallion in his third or fourth year on its roster, a classic case of scratching your back if you'll scratch his, except in this case you might get a couple of foals you don't really want just to get the one you do.

Or maybe a stallion director will give you a good deal on a stud fee if you send multiple mares to a stallion, which is usually more common with horses after their first year, when demand and stud fees drop off. There are plenty of deals like that to be found because these types of horses aren't popular with commercial breeders, and it's a simple enough concept to understand.

I once explained this to a guy at TJC. Look, I said, imagine you're a commercial breeder for a moment. Would you want to breed to a horse in his third year at stud, when you know that you're going to sell a yearling by him when his oldest foals are three? What if that stallion has bombed with his 3-year-olds and 2-year-olds by the time you're sending your yearling into the ring? You'll likely get hammered in sales ring, right? Can you see why breeders, I said, prefer to patronize first-year horses who don't have black marks against them when their first yearlings sell? He slowly and deliberately nodded in agreement, but his expression–a light bulb going on–had already beaten the nod to the punch.

What was left unsaid in that conversation was that that paradigm isn't going to change just because you limit a stallion to 140 mares.

What it will do, however, is give more stallions a shot at stud, because more farms will have more first-year horses to sate commercial demand, and by the numbers alone, that will reduce books for each horse at each price point as more stallions enter the market. The net effect will mean more diversity and more cheaper horses at stud, too, which isn't a bad thing at all, right?

Of course, there will be more churn and burn, too, with stallions getting even shorter leashes on which to operate, but there's a Darwinian element to this that's fair enough: Either make it with your first 2-year-olds or get sent to Korea or Turkey or Louisiana, because we don't have time to see how the 3-year-olds will do, as commercial breeders aren't interested in breeding to a horse in his fifth season at stud unless he's a star.

That's what happened to Daredevil (More Than Ready). Sold to the Turks before his 3-year-olds raced, he was brought back to Kentucky after the success of Swiss Skydiver and Shedaresthedevil, but with a twist. He's owned by the Jockey Club of Turkey, and that entity is standing him at Lane's End. So, we might be seeing a new trend with hastily exported horses, if they succeed after they've been sold and are then brought back by their foreign ownership entities to capitalize on commercial demand in North America.

In fact, Horse of the Year Knicks Go (Paynter) is owned and raced by Koreans in North America and was initially destined for stud duty in Korea, but after his success last year, his owners decided to stand him here, at Taylor Made. If he doesn't make it here, he can always be sent home, but if he's a success, the foreigners will reap the financial rewards.

Paradigms, therefore, are also shifting within the overall commercial scheme we're operating under, which is yet another change to a series of changes that began when tightly held syndicates that limited horses to 40 mares gave way to increasingly bigger books that were fashioned to make money, necessitated by bidding wars for the most desirable stud prospects.

Change is necessary for growth, and one change that'd be refreshing to see is a move away from the commercialism that's dominating the breeding industry. How? Well, how about more people racing the horses they breed?

Homebreeders once made this a sustainable business– in fact, they also made it more sporting and more humane, because there's a tendency to give a horse more time if you've foaled and raised him–and though we're far removed from that model these days, a wider array of cheaper stallions might spur some growth in that area and make it viable again to breed to race, particularly as purses have risen to levels never seen before.     And at the top end, those multi-member partnerships speculating on yearling colts as potential stallion prospects may in the future form multi-ownership groups to race some of the foals of their most successful prospects.

If some of that were to happen, it would strengthen the underpinnings of a business that's way too top heavy on selling alone.

Wishful thinking? It's a thought, anyway.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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A trio of stallions stand at ¥10,000,000 and are already fully booked for 2021-dual Japanese Classic scorer Duramente (Jpn) (King Kamehameha {Jpn}); Epiphaneia (Jpn) (Symboli Kris S), the sire of this year’s Japanese Fillies’ Triple Crown victress Daring Tact (Jpn); and young sire Kizuna (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}). Maurice (Jpn) (Screen Hero {Jpn}), the “Beast from the East”, will stand for ¥8,000,000. The 2019 Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar (Giant’s Causeway), who retired to Shadai for 2020, will command ¥6,000,000, as will fellow second-year sire and MG1SW Rey de Oro (Jpn) (King Kamehameha {Jpn}). A price of ¥4,000,000 has been set for Harbinger (GB) (Dansili {GB}), the sire of globetrotting MG1SW Deirdre (Jpn), as well as for Rulership (Jpn) (King Kamehameha {Jpn}), sire of 15 black-type winners. Dual G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe hero Orfevre (Jpn) (Stay Gold {Jpn})’s fee is ¥2,500,000, while New Year’s Day (Street Cry {Ire}), whose best progeny is notorious MGISW Maximum Security, is at ¥2,500,000. Two sons of the breeding-shaping Sunday Silence remain on the roster and the venerable pair of Daiwa Major (Jpn) and Heart’s Cry (Jpn) are both listed as private.

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