It tells you a lot about our business that the majority of the two dozen stallions operating at this level can only do so because they have yet to send a single runner into the starting gate. A quarter of these we immediately set to one side, as absolute beginners, because those received separate consideration in the opening instalment of this series. Of the remaining 18, another eight belong to those preceding intakes that remain untested by runners.

Some of these have been taking the precautionary clips often necessary to keep young sires in the game, as commercial breeders maintain as safe a distance as possible from the dangers that accompany racetrack exposure.

You can see that template magnified in one of the two sires who are closest to the moment of truth. AUTHENTIC started out in 2021 as the most expensive in his intake, at $75,000. This year he takes his third consecutive cut, down to $50,000 (from $60,000 and previously $70,000). Yet has he become any less likely to sire racehorses, if you send him a mare this spring, relative to when he retired as Horse of the Year? Far from it, if the market reception is any guide: he duly looked after investors by processing 91 yearlings (120 offered) at a median $235,000 (average $286,076), clear at the top of the class.

Authentic | Sarah Andrew

We all know how the system works. But if you genuinely thought Authentic good value at $75,000, well, you'd better get right back to him now that his fee is down by one-third. After all, a true commercial opportunist should be anticipating a rising tide from all the juvenile winners that will surely be emerging from a debut book of 229 mares, just a couple short of making him the busiest stallion in North America that year!

Of course, Spendthrift operates the model so dexterously that Authentic has meanwhile maintained demand, at his more lenient fees, with books of 202 and 198 mares. With 165 live foals to go to war, he surely gives the farm every chance of a third consecutive champion freshman.

MCKINZIE has bucked the trend by retaining his initial fee of $30,000 for a fourth year. He starred at the sales, sending no fewer than 144 into the ring-a staggering percentage of his 174 live foals. That's expressive of the commercial package he had offered in combining knockout looks with 11 triple-digit Beyers, plus Grade Is at two, three and four. He duly sold 110 at a median $90,000, reaching an average of $149,157 after blowing the doors off with a $1.2 million colt at the September Sale. (Both indices beaten only by Authentic in the class.) We've all seen market discoveries sink without trace, over the years, but McKinzie has certainly raised expectations and duly maintained numbers in the meantime, with books of 171 and 168.

The next intake is also represented by two sires, now preparing their first yearlings for auction. One of their peers, Essential Quality, actually remains beyond even this level and duly topped the weanling averages, but CHARLATAN filled second place in selling 19 of 22 at a median $175,000 and average $206,052. That was what he had to do, having similarly starting out behind only Essential Quality in terms of fee, and he's another whose original investors have been spared a depreciation: he remains $50,000 for 2024.

Charlatan emerged from the same crop and barn as Authentic to emulate the GI Arkansas Derby-GI Malibu S. double of Omaha Beach the previous year, and was only narrowly outstayed when stretching his speed again in the G1 Saudi Cup. Unfortunately he then suffered another setback, but nobody forgot his talent and he started with books of 222 and 223. Breeders evidently recalled that he had himself been a $700,000 yearling out of a genuine Grade I mare.

Maxfield | Sarah Andrew

MAXFIELD takes a mild trim, to $35,000 from $40,000, despite selling 11 of a dozen weanlings at a median $110,000/average $165,181. His farm tends to be more conservative with its books, so 165 mares for his first year looked like a full subscription, with another 134 in his second. Maxfield was beaten by just four horses across 11 starts, won a Grade I as a juvenile by five and a half lengths, and above all is out of a Bernardini half-sister to the admirable stallion Sky Mesa (very fine family overall).

Four youngsters who covered their first mares last spring assembled books that appeared, after the mare cap debacle, to be making a point of some kind-albeit one that may be lost on anyone who ends up with only an average specimen to bring to saturated catalogues.

With 262 partners, EPICENTER was behind only his frenzied studmate Golden Pal among American sires, his championship campaign having featured a standout GI Travers (112 Beyer). His sire has gone beyond reach, for most, and I love the sturdy European influences sowing his deeper family-though I can't imagine that those names were front and central for many others!

His neighbor JACK CHRISTOPHER was nearly as hectic with 247 mares. He must have been an easy sell, even his solitary defeat in the GI Haskell counting in his favor as confirming him to be all speed. He'd have had plenty of support had he retired on the spot after a daylight debut success at Saratoga, and beat a good one when returning for what proved his final start a year later. Both he and Epicenter take the customary trim, from $45,000 to $40,000, to help keep the door revolving.

Jack Christopher | Sara Gordon

Jack Christopher represents Munnings, of course, and it's good to see some of Speightstown's later sons contesting the legacy.

Just like Charlatan, OLYMPIAD was a $700,000 yearling. His debut book of 228, making him the busiest stallion outside Ashford, shows that plenty of other farms are prepared to go all out for numbers, given the chance. He matured through the grades with eight triple-figure Beyers, but the clincher is Chic Shirine as third dam. By this stage of the series, you probably won't be surprised that proven stallions populate the Value Podium, but this guy looks a profoundly wholesome prospect in retaining a fee of $35,0000.

Though JACKIE'S WARRIOR had to settle for “just” 182 mares, he could comfort himself that they included Beholder! He's another to take a clip, to $45,000 from $50,000, but still finds himself standing for more than his own sire. Even so, he will remain in demand as a Grade I winner at Saratoga three years running, an unprecedented achievement gilded by a 28-year-old stakes record in the Hopeful.

Right, now let's get onto some sires that have actually demonstrated some competence to replicate the genetic prowess we should be looking for at this kind of fee.

Of these, the one who has barely started is OMAHA BEACH. He's just completed his freshman season with fourth place in a table dominated by Spendthrift sires, on the face of it hardly measuring up to his status as the most expensive of the quartet. But I'm not alone in retaining high hopes, judged from the fact that his fee has moved back up to $40,000 for 2024, having been allowed to slide from an opening $45,000 to $30,000.

Because while he has only had a couple of stakes winners, he has a class-high 11 black-type performers from 64 starters–a much smaller footprint than his three studmates (Vino Rosso, late bloomer though he was, has fielded 92!)–and these include four at graded stakes level. Omaha Beach presumably received rather more Classic/two-turn mares than his peers, and it's reasonable to expect consolidation from here. It's a rare horse nowadays that can win Grade Is at both six and nine furlongs, and his family overflows with quality.

Obviously, he has volume behind him, standing where he does, but that was partly a function of what seemed pretty lenient pricing throughout. His second crop of yearlings held up very well, at a median $105,000/average $156,508 for 95 sold (116 offered). That keeps Omaha Beach miles clear of his intake, some of whom have been quickly embarrassed by their opening fees. Those who kept the faith in the meantime (185 mares in his fourth book last spring) are entitled remain optimistic, the only caveat being the overall underperformance of this particular class of freshmen, judged by graded stakes winners. It's now over to Omaha Beach to convert his promise into a headliner or two.

City of Light | Lane's End

A similar remark might have been made, this time last year, about CITY OF LIGHT–and, heading into the Breeders' Cup, he had still not justified an against-the-tide hike from $40,000 to $60,000 in 2022. That was the reward for a sensational debut (average $337,698/median $260,000) at the yearling sales. With his book down to 85 last spring, from 132, he was slashed to $35,000 for 2024. But then along came Fierceness, and suddenly everything is looking much more cheerful.

City Of Light may have a few later developers, but 18 black-type performers from no more than 127 to have made the starting gate is a very fair ratio. His fee cut was among several such gestures by his farm after polarisation at the sales (where his third crop were down to a median $75,000/average $126,269 for 63 sold of 75) made it feel as though fees generally remain too high.

In his (very competitive) intake, one who has only elevated his reputation is GIRVIN, who started in Florida at $7,500 and is up to $30,000 (from $20,000) after consolidating the breakout that earned him a ticket to Kentucky. From limited materials, he is so far operating at 6 percent stakes winners (including Grade I scorer Faiza) to named foals, narrowly bettered only by Good Magic and Army Mule in his class.

Girvin's tragic sibling Midnight Bourbon showed what their unraced dam Catch the Moon must be contributing to the equation, and this year Catch the Moon's sister produced Brightwork to lend further Grade I luster to the page. Everyone should duly be fully reconciled by now to Girvin's unfashionable (but superbly-bred) sire. Those who bred to Girvin in his second year in Ocala, at $6,000, certainly can't complain about a yearling average of $92,411 (stretched by a $475,000 colt, but a $41,000 median itself very respectable) for 17 sold from 21 offered. Girvin is firmly on his way, through the roof by the restrained standards of his farm with 181 mares (up from 86) last spring, and only an even more upwardly mobile studmate has kept him off the Value Podium.

Violence | Sarah Andrew

Before we get to that, we have three horses that have by now had ample opportunity to show where they fit in the marketplace: Liam's Map, Maclean's Music and VIOLENCE.

Not that the latter has remotely settled, in terms of pricing! Initially elevated to $60,000 for 2024, he has meanwhile slipped back into this bracket at $40,000. The reasons have been cogently explained, and leave him looking big value as the sire of two new stallions in Kentucky this year, not to mention one with an obvious shot at the freshman title in Volatile. Violence is actually cheaper than his champion son Forte, a rookie whose supporters would surely be delighted if he can produce as many fast horses by the time he reaches the equivalent point of his career. Violence's book will be managed appropriately to his circumstances, but purely in terms of value he looks of imperative interest to eligible mares. For this is a proven achiever at this level–both on the track and in the ring, where he moved his yearling yield up to a median of $80,000 (from $60,000) and average $121,642 (from $97,614). That's impressive for a stallion with seven crops in play. Violence was No. 13 on the general sires' list and the caveats sound very manageable.

His studmate MACLEAN'S MUSIC also looks a fair price at $40,000, after a couple of years at $50,000, considering that he has four sons at stud in the Bluegrass. We've already noted one of them, Jackie's Warrior, getting plenty of trade at a higher fee, while Drain The Clock served no fewer than 199 mares in his debut season. Maclean's Music himself had to settle for 144 last spring, but covered 421 over the previous two seasons after dwindling to 57 in 2020, so the good old “pipeline” is well and truly loaded. In fact, no fewer than 183 live foals in 2022 give him the single biggest battalion of juveniles for the forthcoming campaign. So this looks a pretty shrewd time to stay aboard with a horse who processed as many as 104 of 131 yearlings at an average $118,739 ($70,000 median sound enough, against a $25,000 conception fee).

LIAM'S MAP also maintained his sales performance, selling 80 of 102 offered at a $100,000 median/$124,024 average–conceived at $30,000–albeit down somewhat on the previous crop, who had knocked it out of the park ($130,000/$166,724). Standing at $40,000 for a third year running, he once again proved a reliable source of stakes action this year, chiefly with maturing stock. His next task is to emulate the Hill 'n' Dale pair, who have been in the game rather longer, as a sire of sires.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze: HARD SPUN
Danzig–Turkish Tryst (Turkoman)
Darley $35,000

So I guess he's not going to change the world, at this stage–but I really don't see much better value to prove your mare, or just to get yourself a racehorse. I know that's not everyone's priority, but the fact is that the last big son of Danzig has now turned 20 and that leaves us diminishing access to the great patriarch.

Hard Spun | Darley

Hard Spun missed a return to the top 10 sires only by cents, relatively speaking, and it was a measure of what he can do for a mare that a horse with as plain a page as Two Phil's could break into the elite of his crop, and now become Hard Spun's fourth son at stud in Kentucky.

It's incredible that a horse with a dozen domestic Grade I winners has never gone higher than $45,000 in the decade since he made the sojourn in Japan that (in hindsight) cost him vital momentum. In that time, he has finished as high as fourth in the general sires' list, but he doesn't get precocious horses and has settled at a median $67,500 (strong six-figure average) with his last couple of yearling crops.

Hard Spun nonetheless produced another 26 black-type performers in 2023, and cumulatively stands at No. 7 among active sires with several ratios (for instance, graded stakes winners/performers at 2.7/5.7 percent of named foals) uncannily in step with his old buddy Street Sense, who maintains a fee of $60,000.

It's gratifying to see that he remains fully subscribed, 151 mares last year showing that there are still plenty of breeders out there who recognise the importance not just of getting a winner under their mare, but a high-class winner. Hard Spun's stock goes on all surfaces, at all distances, and with those storied Darby Dan bloodlines behind him, it's no surprise that he should meanwhile be emerging as a broodmare influence. His daughters have lately produced a top-class miler in Europe in Alcohol Free (Ire) (No Nay Never), and no less an animal than Good Magic.

Somehow the world has spun against this horse, but it's very hard to see why.

Silver: AMERICAN PHAROAH
Pioneerof The Nile–Littleprincessemma (Yankee Gentleman)
Ashford Stud $50,000

Well, you can't win them all–even if you're Coolmore. Who could have said, for certain, which of their two Triple Crown winners would best replicate the talent that had confirmed the series to remain within the competence of a modern Thoroughbred? It was actually this one, having ended a generation of doubt, that started at the higher fee: he opened at $200,000 in 2016, and Justify at $150,000 three years later. The latter had been trimmed to $100,000 by the time he launched his first runners, in 2022; and American Pharoah had taken a proportionately deeper cut at the equivalent stage, to $110,000 for 2019. Their paths since, however, have forked radically. Justify is now out of sight, listed as private; and Pharoah enters 2024 suffering the indignity of yet another cut, this time down to $50,000 from $60,000.

American Pharoah | Sarah Andrew

Now there's no way that you can say he's any kind of dud, en route to oblivion. He finished 2023 at No. 6 in the general sires' list, with a seventh Grade I winner supplemented by no fewer than six others placed at the elite level–and that's taking no account of his success in Australia, including a G1 Victoria Derby winner. Yes, like most stallions on this farm, the volume behind him proves a double-edged sword when it comes to his ratios.

His 11 stakes winners arrived at 3.7 percent, pretty unexciting given the quality he must have been working with. But he continues to get his superior/graded action at a superior rate to ever-fashionable studmate Munnings, for instance, who commands a 50 percent higher fee.

The exotic seeding of American Pharoah's family was always liable to make the owners of top-class mares a little nervous, but his dam has proved a consistent producer so something has come together in dynamic fashion. Further action was plainly required after he assembled no more than 129 mares with last year's reduction, but if able to maintain his current sales performance–yearling median $150,000 with both his last two crops, averaging $210,164 in 2023–then you'll be looking at a very fair yield at his current price.

Both American Pharoah and Justify have proved effective sires on turf. If this fee proves a last roll of the dice, then I might impudently suggest once again that American Pharoah could be worth a spin in Co. Tipperary. But he's now within reach of a different type of American breeder, and that may well grant him a new lease of life.

Gold: UPSTART
Flatter–Party Silks (Touch Gold)
Airdrie Stud $30,000

So what is it, really, that we can hope to find at this level? I mean, we're obviously excluding “fantasy” breeding to untested stallions. But is there perhaps a horse out there hinting that he's pressing against the ceiling, and might soon be inaccessible? The other pair on the podium, admirable as they are, hardly fit that category. To me, however, Upstart is the dude in this tier who has the chance of elevating himself to a higher level yet.

Upstart | EquiSport

Maybe you were disappointed that he didn't follow through the 2022 deeds of Zandon and Kathleen O (among 63 named foals conceived at $10,000) with his next crop of sophomores? Well, that's because his third crop comprised just 27 live foals. Even so they included Prerequisite, a $47,000-to-$350,000 pinhook who won the GII Wonder Again S. on her first start outside maiden company, and then missed a Grade I by three parts of a length next time. Meanwhile, as we knew to expect from his own template (multiple Grade I-placed in three consecutive seasons), his mature stock kept him in the game with wins in races as resonant as the GII Clark and GII Woodward S.

He has punched conspicuously above weight at the sales, averaging $90,900 in 2022, but traded at just $39,434 from a modest book last year. But he's now ready to open a new cycle. His incoming yearlings emerge from a book of 151, saturation point for a farm that resists the opportunity of exposing their clients by inundating catalogues. Hiked to $30,000 last spring, he entertained another 153. When you consider what he has been doing with mediocre materials, this is a stallion on the point of a big move.

Despite a dual Grade I runner-up among his first juveniles, Upstart somehow remained bumping along at $10,000. Even so, his 13 stakes winners at 5.2 percent of named foals and 26 black-type performers at 10.4 percent compares with 5/12.2 percent for the lavishly supported Nyquist (standing at $85,000) in his own class; 4/9 percent for Practical Joke ($45,000) and 5.2/8.5 percent for Arrogate in the following intake; 5.9/9.4 percent for Justify and 4/11.1 percent for Bolt d'Oro ($60,000) in the one after that.

This is a horse that gets stock onto the track, and into the winner's circle: 53 percent winners to lifetime starters, compared with 46 percent for the soaraway hero of his intake, Not This Time; 41 percent for Nyquist; 43 percent even for the stellar Gun Runner, the same for Practical Joke, just 39 percent for Arrogate.

Upstart was cleverly named and, it now seems, aptly too. There are some curiosities sowing his family, but it's demonstrably all working. Perhaps the farm that gave us the sires of Uncle Mo and Into Mischief has again tapped into an unexpected seam of gold. With an incoming spike in quality and quantity, catch him while you can.

The post Value Sires For 2024 Part 6: Reaching The Snowline appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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A son of Scat Daddy, Flameaway is fourth on North America's freshman sire list with 15 first-crop winners. His 2-year-olds include MGSW Dreamfyre, winner of the GIII Surfer Girl S. Oct. 8 who is pointing to the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Flameaway is one of only two U.S. freshmen of 2023 with a graded stakes winner to date. Flameaway will have limited season availability at $15,000 as Breeders' Cup results could warrant a change in fee.

Dialed In, the top freshman sire of 2016, has a number of top runners on his CV, including 2023's GI Hollywood Gold Cup S. winner Defunded–second in the Sept. 30 GI Awesome Again S.–and GI Kentucky Oaks runner-up Gambling Girl, who also finished third in the GI Coaching Club American Oaks.

Darby Dan stallions for 2024 with fees:

• Bee Jersey–Private
• Copper Bullet–$7,500
• Country House–$7,500
• Dialed In–$15,000
• Flameaway–$15,000
• Higher Power–$10,000
• Leofric–$7,500
• Modernist–$10,000
• Tale of Ekati–Private
• Tale of Silence–Private
• Tapiture–$7,500
• Title Ready–Private

The post Darby Dan’s 2024 Roster Headed by Flameaway and Dialed In appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The Spendthrift roster will feature three new stallions in 2024: Taiba (Gun Runner), Arabian Lion (Justify), and Zandon (Upstart). Taiba is already at the farm and will stand for $35,000, while the other two are being pointed toward the Breeders' Cup and fees will be determined upon retirement. The stallions at Spendthrift are led by four-time leading sire Into Mischief, who will stand for $250,000.

Spendthrift's current freshman sire roster for 2024, with fees, appears below.

• Omaha Beach–$40,000
• Maximus Mischief–$25,000
• Vino Rosso–$20,000
• Mitole–$15,000

The post Spendthrift Freshmen Roster Led by Omaha Beach appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Into Mischief is currently leading the general sires list for 2024 by a comfortable margin. His progeny for 2024 include 21 black-type winners, nine graded winners, and four Grade I winners, led by GI Kentucky Oaks winner and 'TDN Rising Star' Pretty Mischievous. His yearling average for 2023 of $746,854 also leads the nation.

“Into Mischief just continues to wade further and further into unchartered waters when it comes to the long and storied history of stallions in this industry,” said Spendthrift's general manager Ned Toffey. “Not only is he well on his way to capturing his fifth straight champion General Sire title, he is also backing up that success on the racetrack by breaking more records at the sales, and, perhaps most excitingly, as an emerging sire of sires. Into Mischief had 15 yearlings sell for a million dollars or more this year, breaking Storm Cat's record of 13 from 2005. And he has a great chance of having a champion freshman sire, as Maximus Mischief currently sits atop this year's list and Authentic looks poised to make a run next year. It truly is remarkable.”

The Spendthrift roster will be 26 strong for 2024, including three new stallions announced earlier this month: Grade I winners Taiba (Gun Runner), Arabian Lion (Justify), and Zandon (Upstart). The first two are also 'TDN Rising Stars'. Taiba is already available for inspection at Spendthrift, while Arabian Lion will make his next start in Saturday's GII Santa Anita Sprint Championship and Zandon in Saturday's GII Woodward S. Both colts are being pointed to the Breeders' Cup and will retire to Spendthrift at the end of the year. Their fees will be announced at that time.

“We are excited to announce our 2024 stallion roster and fees fresh off the strongest major yearling sales I can remember,” Toffey said. “The market for a racehorse is as competitive as ever, and that is a wonderful thing for breeders and the overall health of the breeding industry. It should give everyone confidence and optimism heading into 2024. At Spendthrift, we are constantly striving to provide the best opportunities for breeders when it comes to quality, value, and diversity of pedigree at all levels.”

Spendthrift's entire 2024 roster, with fees, appears below.

Into Mischief, $250,000

Bolt d'Oro, $60,000

Authentic, $50,000

Jackie's Warrior, $45,000

Taiba, $35,000

Cyberknife, $25,000

Yaupon, $25,000

Mo Donegal, $15,000

Vekoma, $15,000

Cross Traffic, $10,000

Goldencents, $10,000

Jimmy Creed, $10,000

Greatest Honour, $7,500

Known Agenda, $7,500

Rock Your World, $7,500

Basin, $5,000

By My Standards, $5,000

Coal Front, $5,000

Temple City, $5,000

Thousand Words, $5,000

Arabian Lion, TBD

Maximus Mischief, TBD

Mitole, TBD

Omaha Beach, TBD

Vino Rosso, TBD

Zandon, TBD

The post Into Mischief Again Heads Spendthrift Roster for 2024 at $250,000 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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How remarkable is it, then, that this year we have not one, not two, but seven stallions with the potential to pull off a Derby-Oaks sire double, something that hasn't been done since Native Dancer sired the winners of both races 56 years ago? In the 147 years of Derby-Oaks history, the feat has been accomplished exactly four times.

Of course, it will be another week before the fields are drawn, but Churchill Downs currently has 28 colts eligible by points on its Derby leaderboard and 23 fillies on its Oaks leaderboard. Seven sires have progeny on both and an additional three have multiple contenders for one or the other of the races. That seems extraordinary. Almost as extraordinary is that not one of those 10 stallions with multiple contenders is Spendthrift's super sire Into Mischief, who officially became the first stallion in history to sire back-to-back Derby winners when Mandaloun was belatedly promoted as the 2021 winner.

It will come as no surprise that the Three Chimneys wunderkind Gun Runner ranks at the top of the list. The 2017 Horse of the Year was a breakout superstar with his first 2-year-olds last year and has simply continued his dominance, so much so that his one crop of 3-year-olds has him ranked among the top 15 of North America's leading sires in 2022, with all the horses above him having older runners to add to their tally. He leads the current second-crop sires in every category that matters: Grade I winners, graded winners, black-type winners, earnings, earnings per starter, and Derby and Oaks horses.

Gun Runner's first 3-year-olds include a potential three Derby colts and two Oaks fillies | Sarah Andrew

Gun Runner has three colts on Churchill's top 20 by points: Cyberknife, 'TDN Rising Star' Taiba, and Early Voting. He also has two fillies on the Oaks leaderboard by points: champion and 'TDN Rising Star' Echo Zulu, who is securely in the Oaks field, and Shotgun Hottie, who is currently sitting #15 on the list. It is truly an embarrassment of riches.

But Gun Runner isn't the only one whose cup runneth over. Airdrie's young third-crop sire Upstart just may have the favorite for both the Derby and the Oaks, a feat surely almost as rare as winning both. Upstart may not have the sheer numbers in each race Gun Runner has, but he has Zandon and Kathleen O., and it's a good bet the Airdrie stallion team wouldn't trade places with anyone.

Continuing the spate of success for young sires, two others below Gun Runner on the second-crop list also have potential starters in both the Derby and Oaks. Both Coolmore's Classic Empire and Lane's End's Connect have runners on the leaderboard of both. Classic Empire's Morello has enough points to make the Derby field, while his 'TDN Rising Star' Classy Edition and Interstatedaydream are on the Oaks bubble. Inversely, Connect has Hidden Connection guaranteed a spot in the Oaks field, while his Rattle N Roll is on the Derby bubble by points.

With a number of the industry's top sires in their late teens or early 20s, isn't it comforting to feel the future of the breed is in good hands with these prolific young stallions? Two other blossoming sires, Taylor Made's third-crop stallion Not This Time and Darley's third-crop sire Nyquist, also deserve special mention as each has three contenders, although in a single race. Not This Time has Epicenter, Simplification, and In Due Time for the Derby, while Nyquist potentially has Turnerloose, Awake at Midnyte, and Sequist for the Oaks. Also worthy of mention for multiple contenders in a single Classic is Race Day, who left Derby entrants White Abarrio and Barber Road in this country before transferring to Korea.

Returning to our potential Derby-Oaks doubles, although it seems particularly notable with these young second- and third-crop sires who have been on fire lately, we also have three more established stallions who also have a shot to pull off the rare accomplishment. Coolmore's Munnings, who is proving just about as versatile as his sire, Speightstown, ended 2021 with top 2-year-olds 'TDN Rising Star' Jack Christopher and Eda. Neither will make the Classic fields on the first Friday and Saturday in May. However, Munnings re-rallied with 'TDN Rising Star' Zozos guaranteed a spot in the Derby field and 'TDN Rising Star' Shahama among the top 14 for the Oaks.

The late Pioneerof the Nile could add to his tally | Louise Reinagel

WinStar's late Pioneerof the Nile and Coolmore's Uncle Mo, already Derby-winning sires in 2015 with American Pharoah and 2016 with Nyquist, respectively, could also pull off a Derby-Oaks double this year. Pioneerof the Nile has Tawny Port and Pioneer of Medina for the Derby, while Favor is a longshot to make the Oaks field. Unclo Mo has Mo Donegal and 'TDN Rising Star' Cocktail Moments firmly on their respective race leaderboards.

For historical perspective, Native Dancer was the most recent stallion to sire the winners of both the Derby and the Oaks, something he accomplished in 1966 with Kauai King and Native Street. It can be a challenge to find a pedigree in America today without Native Dancer buried somewhere as without him, there would have been no Northern Dancer or Mr. Prospector, making him arguably one of the–if not the–most important American stallions of the past century. The “Gray Ghost of Sagamore,” whose sole career loss ironically came by a head in the 1953 Kentucky Derby, has figured in the majority of Derby- and Oaks-winning pedigrees for the past 50 years.

Calumet's incomparable Bull Lea also scored the Derby-Oaks double in 1952 with Hill Gail and Real Delight. Bull Lea got three Derby winners in a decade with Citation (1948) and Iron Liege (1957) joining Hill Gail on the Derby podium. He also had two Oaks winners, with Bubbley matching Real Delight with an Oaks win in 1953. While Into Mischief is the only sire to win Derbies in consecutive years, Bull Lea is one of four to do it in the Oaks, joining Sir Ivor (1976-77), Spanish Prince II (1924-25), and King Alfonso (1882-83).

Farther back in the sands of time, McGee had the legendary Hall of Fame gelding Exterminator win the Derby in 1918 and his female compatriot Viva America take the Oaks the same year. His was an amazing story: an average sprinter on the track and the only foal by his own unraced sire who was gelded after he was conceived, McGee also sired another Derby winner in Donerail (1913).

Earlier still was King Alfonso in 1885, who notched Derby-Oaks sire score with Joe Cotton and Lizzie Dwyer. Obviously, stallions had far smaller crops back then than they do today, which makes King Alfonso's accomplishments even more impressive. From a reported 17 stakes winners, the Phaeton (GB) stallion had Derby winner Joe Cotton, Derby winner Fonso (1880), and three Oaks winners in four years: in addition to Lizzie Dwyer in 1885, he also had Katie Creel (1882) and Vera (1883).

Native Dancer is the last horse to sire a Derby and Oaks winner in the same year | Coglianese

Many great stallions throughout our sport have never had a Derby nor an Oaks winner. Several others–the aforementioned Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector, for example, as well as Tapit, Storm Cat, Raise a Native, Tom Fool, Nasrullah, and dozens of others–have had a Derby or an Oaks winner, but not both. Several, like Medaglia d'Oro, A.P. Indy, Alydar, Exclusive Native, Sir Gallahad III (Fr), and even the legendary Man o' War and Lexington, have had two winners (or more) of one of the races, but none of the other.

A number of stallions have come tantalizingly close to getting the rare double, with winners of both races in different years. Seattle Slew comes to mind with Swale's Derby in 1984 and Oaks wins with both Seaside Attraction (1990) and Flute (2001). Halo came even closer, with Sunday Silence (1989) and Goodbye Halo (1998) in adjacent years, plus Sunny's Halo (1983) thrown in for good measure. Blenheim II was another good example, with Derby winners Whirlaway (1941) and Jet Pilot (1947) bookending an Oaks win by Nellie L. (1943).

There have been a number of captivating outcomes for sire lines as well. In 1993, Danzig got his lone Oaks winner in Dispute, while his son, Polish Navy, sired Derby winner Sea Hero. A similar thing happened in 1940, when Sir Gallahad III (Fr) sired Derby winner Gallahadion and his son, Insco, got the Oaks winner in Inscolassie; and again in 1933, when Black Toney sired Brokers Tip (Derby) and his son, Black Servant, sired Barn Swallow (Oaks). In 1902, Hanover sons Halma and The Commoner sired Derby winner Alan-a-Dale and Oaks winner Wainamoinen, respectively. Sire of yesteryear Leamington had a son, Reform, sire the 1892 Derby winner in Azra, and a grandson, Falsetto, sire Oaks winner Miss Dixie that same year. Falsetto would eventually sire three Derby winners and two Oaks winners. Leamington had himself sired that first of all Derby winners, Aristides, as well as Longfellow, who got his Derby winners in 1883 with Leonatus and in 1890 with Riley, and his Oaks winners in 1880 with Longitude and in 1887 with Florimore.

Will the young guns Upstart, Gun Runner, Connect, or Classic Empire add their names to the very short list of stallions to sire a Derby-Oaks double? Or will Munnings, Pioneerof the Nile, or Uncle Mo add to their sire exploits? Or perhaps the late Arrogate's Secret Oath will win the Oaks and Japan will continue its recent international dominance with Reach the Crown (Jpn)'s Crown Pride (Jpn) taking the Derby, making this entire discussion a moot point.

That's part of the allure surrounding the Derby and Oaks each year. It's the delicious wondering and speculating about the Classics and what may happen that makes the magic.

The post A 2022 Derby-Oaks Sire Double Could Make History appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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As it is, we can instead treat his latest champion, Authentic, as immediate and priceless confirmation that an upgrade in Into Mischief’s mares–and remember he was still only a $45,000 cover when Peter Blum sent Flawless (Mr Greeley) to the Spendthrift phenomenon in 2016–would enable him to draw out his trademark speed through a second turn.

There had, admittedly, already been auspicious glimpses of this capacity: Owendale and Audible, for instance, had both emerged from much cheaper books to finish strongly for Classic placings. But the emergence of a GI Kentucky Derby and GI Breeders’ Cup Classic winner is not a matter of mere consolidation for Into Mischief. Authentic represents a neon validation of his competence to produce the kind of Triple Crown stock commensurate with a fee that has now soared, even as tariffs are being slashed at his own and virtually every other farm, to $225,000.

And if Authentic proved to be aptly named, then how about Life Is Good as a potential flagship for their sire’s next crop, which was conceived at $75,000? It’s obviously early days for a colt who only made his debut last month, but their trainer is eyeing the GIII Sham S. on Saturday–the very race he used to launch Authentic as a similarly raw sophomore prospect.

Other Into Mischief youngsters already astir include Mandaloun, who has won both starts to date for Brad Cox and may head to the GIII Lecomte S. a couple of weeks later; and Highly Motivated, whose track record at Keeneland was admittedly one of several to fall Breeders’ Cup weekend but nonetheless attests to his abundant natural speed. As a sprinter who must show how far he can stretch, Highly Motivated sets a familiar challenge. But Mandaloun certainly measures the changing complexion of the genetic material nowadays complementing Into Mischief’s own contribution: he is a Juddmonte homebred, out of an Empire Maker mare who won a Group race over just short of 10 furlongs in Ireland.

Authentic was his sire’s flagship runner this year | Coady

The momentum behind Into Mischief, as such, looks inexorable for the next few years. His rise has been sustained by unusually reliable libido and fertility, and he remains assured of undiminished quantity to support the improving quality of his mares. His books have proved invulnerable to fee increases: his 2021 juveniles, conceived at $100,000, emerge from a book of 245; the next crop, at $150,000, from one of 241; and this year he covered 248 mares at $175,000. Obviously he has his home herd to service, gratis, but the turnover being generated by outside mares is still eye-watering.

Famously, of course, there are nine breeders out there who wouldn’t have to pay a cent–though presumably they will mostly have cashed out by now, having secured a lifetime breeding right by committing a mare to Into Mischief’s first two seasons. It was launching a couple of rookies into the backdraft of the 2008 financial crisis that inspired Spendthrift’s owner B. Wayne Hughes to develop Share the Upside, pioneer among many the incentive schemes that have meanwhile transformed the stallion industry in the Bluegrass. (A process, admittedly, that has discomfited many a farm; and, in candour, made some rivals resent the rise of Into Mischief as poster boy for a whole new culture.)

The kind of elite stallion Hughes is now managing to bring to the farm won’t need that kind of extra support. Both Spendthrift and its flagship stallion have come a long way since Into Mischief covered 50 mares at $7,500 in 2012, just as his first runners were about to reach the track.

Those first years earning his stripes do mean that Into Mischief is now in his prime, about to turn 16. He already has some promising sons at stud, even from his cheaper books, and breeders at all levels duly have more accessible alternatives: from those who sent 196 mares to Maximus Mischief at $7,500 in his debut book, to those who will pay 10 times that sum to reach Authentic this coming spring.

Nonetheless, after finishing 35th, 13th and fourth in the three years prior to his first title, Into Mischief is clearly going to take a lot of shifting from the summit for the time being. Yes, it remains possible for a handful of disproportionate purses in the international calendar to distort the validity of a pecking order determined by prize money. In fact, it had come to seem imperative to find a more instructive gauge after Unbridled’s Song won a posthumous championship in 2017 exclusively through the lucrative endeavors of Arrogate, who won the GI Pegasus and G1 Dubai World Cup in the first three months of the year. Otherwise Unbridled’s Song would have finished 44th. (Not that the horse so denied the title, Candy Ride {Arg}, could throw stones from his glass house: without Gun Runner, he would have finished 20th.)

Into Mischief at home at Spendthrift | Sarah Andrew

Hats off, then, to Into Mischief for restoring a helpful correlation between prize money and consistent merit. Last year, his top earner Covfefe contributed just $1,052,425 to an overall haul of $19,179,389. This time round, his progeny earned well over $15 million even without the bank vault filled by Authentic. That would still have put him $3 million clear of a runner-up, in Medaglia d’Oro, who himself owes very nearly half his 2020 earnings to his prolific Hong Kong star Golden Sixty (Aus).

And that’s in terms of global earnings. If measured by North American and European purses only, Into Mischief has doubled the tally of his nearest pursuer, Uncle Mo ($21.7 million against $10.6 million). To be fair, whatever else he is, he is not yet a stallion of intercontinental reach: his overseas earnings are marginal. But he is certainly restoring the good name of the championship he has retained.

This consistency of output is partly a function of the industrial Spendthrift model–which is driven by opportunity, to put it positively; or numbers, to put it more plainly. Even in a year where the pandemic devoured much of the springtime program, and in particular delayed the advent of the juveniles, Into Mischief has had 420 starters. (This and all other numbers cited remain subject to mild overnight updates, being correct to Dec. 30.) In the top 10 only Uncle Mo, standing on another farm that will not take kindly to the impending restriction on books to 140, has had even 300 starters.

So yes, there have been plenty of stallions in 2020 with a superior ratio of winners to starters. But the witting, willing trade-off made by these big commercial farms, who believe a stallion gets more momentum from headline horses than small-print percentages, does not actually weaken the credentials of the champion. Because his 15% black-type performers-to-starters is the best of the year; narrowly exceeding a rival, in War Front, who has always operated with quality ahead of quantity.  His 29 black-type winners, moreover, were assembled at a clip matched among Kentucky rivals only by Speightstown and, in another significant endorsement for the numbers game, Uncle Mo.

Other Top Proven Sires
We’ll be crediting several who have performed well behind Into Mischief in our ongoing series previewing covering options for 2021. For now, it’s worth giving honourable mentions to a handful. Multiple previous champion Tapit remains a wonder of consistency, once again on the podium; the splendid veteran Speightstown was unique in managing four individual Grade I winners; Munnings, in breaking into the top ten, has stopped smouldering and is now sparking at last, as high as fourth in the North American/European table; Hard Spun, following through on fourth last year with another excellent show in ninth, continues to outpunch his fee; and likewise The Factor, still only $17,500 despite only just missing the top 10 active Kentucky stallions.

Uncle Mo | Coolmore photo

But perhaps the most conspicuous achiever behind Into Mischief has been Uncle Mo–not just after ascending to fourth from 13th, but as the sire of three of the top four in the freshmen’s championship. That makes 2020 a game-changing year for Ashford’s linchpin of the Caro line, who is only turning 13.

Among his current racing stock, consistency was the key: while he didn’t muster a single Grade I winner, none could match Uncle Mo’s 14 individual graded stakes winners. But for a stallion with just six racing crops to have emerged virtually overnight as a sire of sires is quite extraordinary.

First-Crop Sires
Just as Nyquist emerged from Uncle Mo’s first crop to emulate his 2-year-old championship, so he has in turn become champion freshman sire (by prize money) with a GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner of his own. Vequist accounts for half the earnings banked by Nyquist’s 17 winners from 45 starters. He has not messed around: he only has two stakes winners, but both had the opportunism to win at Grade I level (Vequist plus Summer S. winner Gretzky the Great). Of five black-type performers overall, moreover, Nyquist has had two others placed at the elite level.

If Nyquist has jumped through the same hoops as his sire, Laoban came out of left field–or at least out of New York, where he had started at $5,000. After pulling fairytale GI Alcibiades S. winner Simply Ravishing out of his hat, Laoban is on his way to WinStar in Kentucky where he will join Outwork, their sire’s other fast starter with 19 winners.

Not This Time | Jon Siegel

Intruding on Uncle Mo’s private party was Not This Time, far and away the most prolific with no fewer than 28 individual winners from 54 starters. He has proved he can get a good one, too, with the charismatic OBS Spring Sale-topper Princess Noor a runaway winner of the GI Del Mar Debutante (unfortunately since retired with a soft tissue injury).

Second-Crop Sires
These young guns will now look to consolidate after the fashion of American Pharoah and Constitution, who finished first and second in the freshmen’s table last year and fill the same positions in the second-crop championship. The big mover in this group was obviously Daredevil, whose star filly Swiss Skydiver helped him up to fourth, and back to the Bluegrass from Turkey, after her anonymous debut last year.

Third-Crop Sires and Beyond
Top of the preceding intake remains Goldencents, who finished second as a freshman and first last year. This was the first racehorse to show that Into Mischief might become a more potent sire than had been expected. Who can say, then, which unheralded young stallion may commence some equivalent rags-to-riches rise in 2021? That’s the whole beauty of this business. We’re always seeing stallions who seem to have the world at their feet, falling flat on their faces; and the converse, too.

As Hughes constantly reminds his team at Spendthrift: “Nobody knows.” That may seem a disadvantage, if you’re trying to put together any kind of coherent business plan with Thoroughbreds. But actually it’s what gives us all a chance–and the reason why Into Mischief, for all the uncomfortable challenges Hughes has set more conventional competitors, deserves a universal toast on concluding another remarkable chapter in his epic tale.

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