1) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,504,100. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

Right now there's a court showdown in Kentucky initiated by Muth's owner, Amr Zedan, to try and get this son of Good Magic ($190,000 KEESEP, $2 million OBSMAR) eligible to start in the Derby despite a corporate ban by Churchill Downs against Bob Baffert's trainees.

This 'TDN Rising Star' and winner of the GI Arkansas Derby would be among the favorites if he were granted access to the gate in Louisville. Otherwise, Baffert has indicated Muth is on target for the GI Preakness S.

Muth reacted professionally to two disruptive attempts in the early stages of the Arkansas Derby. Off as the 2.3-1 second choice, he showed good speed early, then Juan Hernandez conceded the lead when a 26-1 shot slipped through at the rail. When 11-10 favorite Timberlake (Into Mischief) unexpectedly accelerated between rivals at the 6 ½-furlong pole to seize the lead, Muth shadowed him about a length back while not expending much energy in doing so.

Muth began to gather serious momentum 3 ½ furlongs out, and opened up under a hand ride past his spent rival. Muth was then kept to task by Hernandez in the stretch to win by two lengths over Just Steel (Justify), and at no point did he appear to be scraping the bottom of his stamina reserves.

Muth has four wins and a pair of seconds from six lifetime races since breaking his maiden way back on June 18. He was second in the GIII Best Pal S., first in the GI American Pharoah S., second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then a winner in the GII San Vicente S. prior to his tally at Oaklawn.

2) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-3-1-0, $918,000. Last start: WON Apr. 6 GI Blue Grass S.

When speed figures get adjusted several races after those numbers were initially assigned, it squares away potential inaccuracies moving forward. But this process of revising numerical ratings also can give horseplayers fits, because the changes can significantly alter one's perception of the overall pecking order.

A case in point was last week's Beyer Speed Figure change for Sierra Leone. After this $2.3 million FTSAUG sale-topper earned a 98 in winning the Apr. 6 GI Blue Grass S., Andrew Beyer told Daily Racing Form's David Grening that the colt's winning figure for the GII Risen Star S. would be upgraded from 90 to 95, and that all the horses who finished behind Sierra Leone would also be get a five-point boost.

“The Fair Grounds track was sloppy on Feb. 17, and may have been getting slower when the Risen Star was run,” Beyer told DRF. “Moreover, the pace of the Risen Star was slow enough to hinder horses from running a fast final time.

“The subsequent performances of horses in the field demonstrated that our initial figure was too low,” Beyer explained. “Three of the top five finishers all came back to win important stakes, and all five of these horses earned speed figures five or more points higher than their published numbers for the Risen Star.”

So Sierra Leone's career Beyer arc now reads 71-91-95-98 instead of 71-91-90-98.

The betting public's assessment of Gun Runner-sired 'TDN Rising Star' probably won't change all that much because of how the numbers paint him. He's capable of making one sustained run from five furlongs out, and as the Derby's best-credentialed closer, Sierra Leone will vie for favoritism with 2-year-old champ and fellow 'Rising Star' Fierceness, who projects to be a pacemaker.

3) FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) (c, Reel Steel {Jpn}–Forever Darling, by Congrats). O-Susumu Fujita; B-Northern Racing; T-Yoshito Yahagi. Sales History: ¥98,000,000 Ylg '22 JRHAJUL. Lifetime Record: 5-5-0-0, $2,049,451. Last start: WON Mar. 30 G2 UAE Derby.

The 5-for-5 Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) arrived at Churchill Downs on Saturday, then jogged in the one-mile chute for about 20 minutes before taking a 1 1/8-mile gallop Sunday.

This Yoshito Yahagi trainee, who sold for the equivalent of $720,603 at the JRHA Select Yearling and Foal sale, has earned the distinction of being the most credible foreign threat in the Derby since the advent of the points qualifying system.

Forever Young's victory in the G2 UAE Derby over 1900 meters stamped him as an A-lister based on his ground-conceding outside trip that featured deft shifting into consecutively higher gears and a confident drawing-away in the stretch.

Although there were only four dirt races on the G1 Dubai World Cup card at Meydan that day, two of them were blowout wins by speed horses who rode the rail, suggesting that the wide-all-the-way run by Forever Young could have been against the grain of the way the track was playing.

This colt's chances in the Derby will be augmented if jockey Ryusei Sakai can carve out a stalking trip that utilizes Forever Young's tactical speed to put him somewhere in the first flight or just behind it. Although he has come from farther back in several of his victories, rating from way off the tailgate in a 20-horse Derby doesn't seem like the most effective use of his cruising ability.

4) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, MGISW, 5-3-0-1, $1,703,850. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Curlin Florida Derby.

Now that all the speed-figure cards for the Derby are face-up on the table, the 110 Beyer awarded to 'TDN Rising Star' and 2-year-old champ Fierceness for his GI Florida Derby win stands atop the crop.

The chief question for handicappers though, is whether you think this Repole Stable homebred by City of Light can replicate or better that gaudy number in the Derby. It was earned under ideal circumstances in a 13 1/4 -length blowout against no other horses currently ranked among TDN's Top 20 sophomores.

A few weeks back the Derby was shaping up as a race lacking strong early speed horses. Now that vacuum has been theoretically filled, with Fierceness, Track Phantom (Quality Road), Dornoch (Good Magic), T O Password (JPN) (Copano Rickey (JPN)), and possibly Encino (Nyquist) all likely to want a say in the early fray.

When Fierceness is on his game, he is one of the most dangerous colts in the division. But excelling under adversity has not been his strong suit, with two baffling, odds-on losses in the GI Champagne S. and GIII Holy Bull S. offsetting resounding scores in his Saratoga unveiling, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and the Florida Derby.

5) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L and N Racing LLC, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-2-1, $405,000. Last start: 4th in Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

I always try to rate “how he did it” over “how fast” when handicapping. But in Track Phantom's case, even though I've consistently liked the way he's gone about his business when challenges have been thrown in his path, I still have nagging doubts about whether this colt is truly fast enough to be able to pull off a Derby win.

This $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road has handled different types of pace pressure despite being routinely drawn in or near the outside stall. He has engaged in several hard-fought stretch battles, and has run well over two different types of wet tracks at Fair Grounds and Churchill.

Even his beaten-fave fourth-place try after setting a moderate pace in the GII Louisiana Derby wasn't as bad as it might seem. Closers stacked up five across the lane behind Track Phantom at the top of the stretch, yet he didn't capitulate until the sixteenth pole.

Track Phantom isn't a flashy sort, but you have to give him points for consistency. Getting out of the gate is crucial in the Derby. This colt has been on the lead at the first call in five of his seven lifetime races, and in the two others he was second, just a head behind.

Trainer Steve Asmussen will try blinkers on Track Phantom for the Derby. After pairing 94 Beyers in his last two efforts, he'll need about a 10-point improvement to win.

Dornoch is the full-brother to Derby winner Mage | Ryan Thompson

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-2-0, $552,275. Last start: 4th in the GI Blue Grass S. Apr. 6.

Dornoch has lost some steam in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools, going from 9-1 in February to 12-1 in March to 15-1 in April.

Although this son of Good Magic has cachet because he is a full brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, his no-impact fourth in the Blue Grass S. wasn't an emphatic enough of a final prep to stamp him as a major contender.

Although I wouldn't recommend singling Dornoch, it wouldn't be prudent to eliminate him off your Derby tickets entirely. Trainer Danny Gargan was asking this $325,000 KEESEP colt to change tactics by rating from behind horses in the Blue Grass, and after conceding that bit of schooling didn't work out, he said Luis Saez will be instructed just to let Dornoch roll from the gate in the Derby.

Gargan has spent the winter at Palm Meadows trying to get the brawny-framed Dornoch to maintain a keen sense of focus. If the figurative lightbulb clicks on in the Derby, look out.

7) JUST A TOUCH (c, Justify-Touching Beauty, by Tapit) O-Qatar Racing LLC, Resolute Racing & Marc Detampel; B-Don Alberto Corp. (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $170,000 RNA '22 KEESEP; $125,000 yrl '22 FTKOCT; $300,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $281,700. Last start: 2nd in GI Blue Grass S. Apr. 6.

Just a Touch deserves praise for what he has accomplished in only three starts. But since his second-place effort in the Blue Grass S., his bandwagon has become crowded enough to warrant a reality check. Are Derby prognosticators “reaching” for a horse who has yet to truly peak?

In the Blue Grass, this Brad Cox-trained colt ($170,000 RNA KEESEP, $125,000 FTKOCT, $300,000 OBSAPR) pressed a rapid pace, then gained control of the lead from the three-sixteenths marker until just before the sixteenth pole. He was no match for the locomotive-like close of Sierra Leone, but he didn't pack it in, and after being beaten only 1 ½ lengths, galloped out well.

Prior to that, Just a Touch broke his maiden by 4 ½ lengths sprinting at Fair Grounds Jan. 27, then was a wide but willing second in the Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct, both in the slop.

The post-Blue Grass reasoning has focused on how if Just a Touch could deliver such a good showing in only his first race around two turns and in his first race on a dry track, he just might be capable of turning in the over-the-top effort he will need to win the Derby, which will be run one day prior to his third birthdate.

From 1900 to the present, 26 horses have attempted to win the Kentucky Derby with exactly three lifetime starts. Only four have won: Mage in 2023, Justify in 2018, Big Brown in 2008 and Regret in 1915. Beyond those four, only one of the remaining 22 managed to hit the board (Curlin, third in 2007).

Just a Touch's sire, Justify, in 2018 became the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without having raced at age two. Mage then triumphed over the “Apollo curse” in 2023. But the record of horses in the Derby without a race at age two since 1937 is 2-3-5 from 73 starts.

8) ENCINO (c, Nyquist–Glittering Jewel, by Bernardini) O-Godolphin LLC; B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 4-3-1-0, $378,315. Last Start: WON GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. Apr. 13.

Encino (Nyquist) is a legit wild card if he goes in the Derby. He's in sharp form with three straight wins and a Beyer pattern that keeps improving. Yet he's taken an unconventional path to the Triple Crown level, pairing stakes victories in the John Battaglia Memorial S. over Tapeta at Turfway and wiring the GIII Lexington S. over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles.

Speed and the rail have produced favorable results this spring at Keeneland, and this Godolphin homebred had little trouble establishing himself at the head of affairs in his first dirt try, rattling off unopposed opening quarter-mile splits of :23.53 and :23.73.

Encino responded when roused to swat back the race's only true challenger. But it's not entirely clear if the three-quarter length win (94 Beyer) was more attributable to Encino's fighting spirit or the inability of The Wine Steward (Vino Rosso) to seal the deal off a six-month layoff. The rest of the field was 8 ¼ lengths back.

Encino could end up being an intriguing wiseguy play in a year where the success of the two obvious Derby favorites (Fierceness and Sierra Leone) hinges upon whether they get the right pace and/or trips, and the next two logical horses in the betting (Just a Touch and Forever Young) still haven't won American dirt stakes.

9) IMAGINATION (c, Into Mischief–Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan & Tom Ryan; B-Peter Blum Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,050,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $406,800. Last start: 2nd in the GI Santa Anita Derby Apr. 6.

No next start has been publicly disclosed for Imagination (Into Mischief), a Bob Baffert trainee who was most recently second in the GI Santa Anita Derby.

This $1.05-million KEESEP colt has been battle-tested by hooking up in prolonged late-race fights in three straight races. Even though he didn't come out on the winning end of all of those stretch tussles, it's the type of experience that will stand him in good stead at the Triple Crown level.

Imagination is now 2-4-0 from six lifetime starts, which include five two-turn races.

10) RESILIENCE (c, Into Mischief-Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike) O-Emily Bushnell & Ric Waldman; B-Pam & Martin Wygod (KY); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-1, $494,630. Last start: WON Apr. 6 GI Wood Memorial S.

The GII Wood Memorial S. win didn't appear to be an overlay demanding race for Resilience, and he does exit the most obvious key race among the points-awarding winter preps. Prior to his blinkers-on score in the Wood, he ran fourth in the Risen Star S., from which the first- and third-place finishers, Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom (Constitution) also won graded stakes in their next starts.

It took Resilience four starts to break his maiden. But the horses who won those first three at Saratoga and Churchill all eventually became stakes winners, so this colt gets points for taking a path to Louisville that has been laden with legit competition.

The question is whether this Bill Mott trainee is going take another leap forward (a small step won't do it) in Louisville.

11) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $877,350. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

This medium-framed $575,000 KEESEP colt by Constitution from Brad Cox's barn waited patiently at the back behind a moderate tempo in the Louisiana Derby, then unwound 2 1/2 furlongs out and fanned 12 wide into the lane. He ran straight and reeled in his targets, but for the most part was passing horses who had already made their major moves in upper stretch.

The win returned a 97 Beyer, building on a previous upward trend of 72-77-87-92.

Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby: Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924.

12) JUST STEEL (c, Justify–Irish Lights {Aus}, by Fastnet Rock {Aus}). O-BC Stables, LLC; B-Summerhill Farm (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Sales History: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 11-2-4-1, $724,545. Last start: 2nd Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

It's at this juncture within the Top 20 that we have to realistically start considering every Derby aspirant from Just Steel on down to be “chaos contenders.” In other words, a lot of things would have to go wrong, tactics-wise, with almost all of the projected favorites, and a lot of things would have to go right for these longer shots to envision one of them wearing a blanket of roses.

Yet it happens. Just ask Rich Strike (Keen Ice), the 80-1 Derby winner from two years ago.

This $500,000 KEESEP colt trained by D. Wayne Lukas already has 11 races of experience, and on three occasions at age three he's finished second around two turns in points-awarding Derby prep stakes. The one time he didn't, Just Steel was five wide round both turns in the GII Rebel S.

In the Arkansas Derby, Just Steel raced close to the pace throughout and finished only two workmanlike lengths behind No. 1-ranked Muth.

Potentially rounding out the Derby starting gate…

13) Domestic Product (Practical Joke)
Last week on the TDN Writers' Room podcast, trainer Chad Brown made a cogent case for this Klaravich Stables homebred to be “an under-the-radar real contender for the Derby” with a switch to jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. because Tyler Gaffalione is committed to No.2-ranked Sierra Leone.

Brown said he expected big things out of this son of Practical Joke in his Saratoga sprint debut, but attributed the subpar fifth to the colt getting pelted with dirt kickback. Domestic Product then missed some training, and although Brown doesn't usually like to run a 2-year-old at nine furlongs off just one six-furlong start, he did so on Oct. 27 and the result was a 4 1/2-length win at Aqueduct.

Brown said the muddy track was the primary reason for Domestic Product's poor seventh-place showing in the GII Remsen S., adding that a similarly wet track could be a problem if the rains come on Derby Day.

But, Brown added, Domestic Product's second in the GII Holy Bull S. and win in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby both were promising considering the colt closed into very slow paces in both races.

After the Tampa Derby, Brown said Gaffalione told him that Domestic Product is “not that far behind” Sierra Leone. “Going a mile and a quarter, they're not as much separating these two horses as you think,” the jockey told him.

“So I trust [Gaffalione],” Brown said. “I think taking the blinkers off of this horse was a positive move for him in his last two starts.”

14) Mystik Dan (Goldencents)
In the Arkansas Derby, this homebred son of Goldencents for owners Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby and 4G Racing didn't live up to his 101-Beyer winning, wet-track form from the GIII Southwest S. He was carried wide and encountered a bit of trip trouble, and ended up third, beaten 6 ½ lengths in his nine-furlong debut.

Throughout this colt's campaign, trainer Kenny McPeek has emphasized that Mystik Dan has a good mind and an easygoing attitude, both of which can be more valuable than what's on paper in his past performances.

McPeek said after a Saturday workout that Mystik Dan “got a lot” out of the Arkansas Derby “and has shown he handled it well in his training after.”

Co-owner Eric Waller, left, leads Stronghold and jockey Antonio Fresu into the winner's circle after their victory in the GI Santa Anita Derby | Benoit

15) Stronghold (Ghostzapper)
Stronghold is one of the more mature Derby aspirants, showing an ability to relax out of the gate, be responsive to his rider's cues to engage, and win stretch battles even after getting in front and then briefly losing the lead.

This Ghostzapper-sired homebred for Rick and Sharon Waller necked Imagination in the Santa Anita Derby. He earned an 89 Beyer, the same figure as his score in the GIII Sunland Derby Feb. 18. Those have been his only two starts at age three.

Although currently based in Southern California with trainer Phil D'Amato, Stronghold has already won over the Churchill surface. His one-turn-mile maiden victory back on Oct. 1 is notable because the second- and third-place finishers, Resilience and Track Phantom, are both currently ranked ahead of him on this list.

16) Endlessly (Oscar Performance)
Endlessly, whose six races thus far been all on either turf or Tapeta, is aiming for a May 4 start at Churchill. But trainer Michael McCarthy still hasn't zeroed in on whether that will be in the Kentucky Derby or the GII American Turf S.

This son of Oscar Performance won the Mar. 23 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. by four lengths with a complete-control outside move that outclassed the field.

Endlessly has won five races total, and his only loss is much better than it looks. This homebred for Amerman Racing was eighth, but beaten only 3 1/2 lengths, in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

17) Honor Marie (Honor Code)
This $40,000 KEESEP colt by Honor Code turns three on Derby Day. Although a touch behind his peers age-wise, Honor Marie does have the benefit of having won a two-turn stakes at Churchill at age two, the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Trainer Whit Beckman is on record as saying that the 10-fulrong distance, “if not farther” might end up being Honor Marie's sweet spot.

He was most recently third in the Louisiana Derby with a seven wide bid from the back of the pack.

18) Society Man (Good Magic)
This $85,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic chased without making an impact in his July 22 Saratoga sprint debut, then resurfaced seven months later at Aqueduct tasked with nine furlongs.

Society Man was bumped at the break and wide on the turns when third in that try, then had a nearly identical trouble line when attempting stakes company as a maiden in the muddy GIII Withers S.

He was difficult to load but delivered in a one-turn maiden mile Mar 9 in New York (also in the mud), then was a best-of-the-rest second at 106-1 odds behind Resilience in the Wood Memorial.

A plus is three races of experience at nine furlongs.

19) West Saratoga (Exaggerator)
As an $11,000 KEESEP bargain who has already bankrolled more than 40 times his purchase price in purses, this Larry Demeritte trainee deserves kudos for overachievement.

But despite running decently in several lower-profile stakes this season, West Saratoga (Exaggerator) hasn't hit the winner's circle since he registered a mild 12-1 upset in the Sept. 16  GIII Iroquois  S., a one-turn mile at Churchill.

This gray is also behind numbers-wise, with an 85 Beyer earned over Tapeta in his runner-up Jeff Ruby Steaks S. effort his career best.

West Saratoga's consistent tactical speed, which he's utilized to be within striking distance of the mid-race leaders in every single one of his 10 starts, could be an asset in the Derby.

20) T O Password (Jpn) (Copano Rickey {Jpn})
The “T O” in T O Password (Jpn) is a naming convention for horses owned by Tomoya Ozasa. This is a forward-running colt by Japanese champion dirt horse Copano Rickey (Jpn).

T O Password is a May 20 foal who did not make his debut until Jan. 6 at Kyoto in an 1,800-meter (about nine furlongs) maiden race. As the second favorite in the betting, he pressed a moderate pace and shook free over the final three furlongs to draw away by two lengths.

In the Mar. 23 1,800-meter Fukuryu S., this 13-1 Daisuke Takayanagi trainee went straight to the lead but tired late. He would have been nailed in the final jump by an onrushing closer had he not been saved by the wire.

T O Password figures to be a long-shot proposition north of 50-1 in the Derby. However, his tactics under Kazushi Kimura (Woodbine's leading rider last year) could play a major role in how the pace unfolds.

The post TDN Sophomore Top 20: Pace Scenario For Derby Coming Into Clearer Focus appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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While Sierra Leone's come-from-behind Blue Grass win was one of the more visually impressive Kentucky Derby preps of the year, the race left plenty of room for improvement for the colt going forward when he proved to be a handful for the Keeneland gate crew while loading.

“As the pace was moving along at a solid rate and I saw the horse moving up down the backside, I felt pretty good,” Brown said. “The only anxious moment was when he was loading into the gate. I didn't see that coming. He's been a pretty straightforward horse. When we inherited the outside post with the 11 scratching, he was the last one to load in there… and he just kept looking at that crowd. It's been something with this horse, he always kind of wants to look right. You know, you saw in the GII Remsen S. when he was kind of acting green, and he still wants to lean in a little bit when he passed that horse on Saturday.”

Chad Brown Joins the TDN Writers' Room from Thoroughbred Daily News on Vimeo.

Saturday's win marked Brown's third Blue Grass score, following the success of juvenile champion Good Magic (Curlin) in 2018 and Zandon (Upstart) in 2022. That pair went on to run second and third, respectively, in the GI Kentucky Derby. Brown said that he believes Sierra Leone will give him his best shot to date to get that first Derby score.

“This horse really looks like he's looking for the mile and a quarter,” said Brown. “Yes he's going to have to pass a lot of horses, but it looks like it'll be a good pace and hopefully if he can just get a clear run and uses his big stride, he would be the best chance we've had in this race.”

Later in our breeding spotlight section, we took a look at the Coolmore stallion Maximum Security and WinStar stallion Independence Hall. We also welcomed a new sponsor, Pleasant Acres Stallions in Ocala, Florida, which is home to stallions like Doppelganger and Simplification.

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders' Association, West Point Thoroughbreds, the Kentucky Thoroughbred Association and XBTV.com, the team of Randy Moss, Bill Finley and T.D. Thornton took a look back at the major Kentucky Derby and Oaks preps from coast to coast, from Leslie's Rose (Into Mischief) earning a breakout victory in the GI Ashland S. to the showdown between Stronghold (Ghostzapper) and Imagination (Into Mischief) in the GI Santa Anita Derby.

Click to watch as a video or to listen to the podcast.

The post Chad Brown Joins the TDN Writers’ Room appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The mount opened up when Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) won Saturday's GI Blue Grass S. with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. Gaffalione, also the regular rider of Domestic Product, will stick with the highly regarded Sierra Leone, who could be the second choice in the Derby.

“We were lucky enough to pick up Irad Ortiz on (Domestic Product). So he's going to ride him in the Derby, which is great,” Brown said.

Ortiz has had seven mounts in the Derby and has yet to hit the board with any. Brown is also 0-for-7 in the race.

While Sierra Leone may be his main gun, Brown thinks highly of Domestic Product.

“That horse is an under-the-radar real contender in the Derby,” Brown said. “He has a really fast figure at a mile-and-an-eighth as a two-year-old to keep working off of.”

Gaffalione is also a fan of Domestic Product.

“Tyler said to me, 'he's not that far behind (Sierra Leone).,” Brown said. “'Trust me, the horse goes a mile and a quarter. There's not as much separating these horses as you think. That's what he told me.'”

Domestic Product broke his maiden in his second career start last fall at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet. After a poor effort in the GII Remsen S. he was second in the GIII Holy Bull S. He then won the Tampa Bay Derby by a neck over No More Time (Not This Time).

The post Irad Ortiz, Jr. Picks Up Derby Mount On Domestic Product appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Then again…

Just seven days after the Florida Derby, Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) turned in a special performance of his own in the GI Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. He didn't win by 13 1/2 lengths. The margin was just 1 1 /2 lengths. He didn't get a triple digit Beyer. It was a 98. It was a very different race than the one turned in by Fierceness but was every bit as special, maybe even more so.

His story really begins at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. The Coolmore team and Peter Brant have a sharp eye for talent and it looks like this was a horse they had to have. They paid $2.3 million for him, which made him the sale topper. With Brant involved, the horse was sent to his main trainer, Chad Brown.

He broke his maiden in November at Aqueduct and came back in the GII Remsen, where he staged an epic duel with Dornoch (Good Magic). He lost by a nose but Dornoch was hugging the rail on a day where the inside was the place to be.

Sierra Leone kicked off his 3-year-old season winning the GII Risen Star S. at the Fair Grounds. Catching Freedom (Constitution), who was third, went on to win the GII Louisiana Derby. Resilience (Into Mischief) was fourth in the Risen Star and came back in his next start to win the GII Wood Memorial.

But it was the Blue Grass where Sierra Leone really showed how special he is. He acted up prior to the start and delayed the race. That's oftentimes a kiss of death, but it proved not to be a problem. With Tyler Gaffalione aboard he dropped back to ninth in the ten-horse field before launching his bid. Midway on the turn, he still had to get past six horses, which wasn't any sort problem. He came with monstrous, ground gobbling strides and flew past Just a Touch (Justify) to win going away. He ran like a horse who should love the mile-and-quarter and one who has yet to peak.

“We're just trying to maintain pretty much the way he's been his whole life, a special horse,” said Brown, who is 0-for-7 in the Derby. “I don't know if they ever fully figure it out, but he's  only had a handful of starts.”

So this was a race where Sierra Leone had to fight and show what he is capable of. He also beat some top quality horses in Just A Touch and GII Fountain of Youth winner Dornoch, who was fourth.

That wasn't at all the case for Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Perfectly ridden by Hall of Famer John Velazquez, he was wisely taken to the lead and Velazquez was able to slow the pace down. Fierceness was in front the whole way while posting tepid fractions. He went the first quarter in 24.06, the half in 47.50 and the three quarters In 1:11.31. No one was ever going to catch him with the trip he was able to work out. And to make matters even easier on him, neither of his top two challengers fired. Conquest Warrior (City of Light) was fourth, beaten 16 lengths. Hades (Awesome Slew), the GIII Holy Bull S. winner, was even worse, finishing fifth, beaten 19 3/4 lengths. Catalytic (Catalina Cruiser), a 29-1 shot, was second and 21-1 shot Grand Mo the First (Uncle Mo) was third. Both will be among the longest shots on the board in the Kentucky Derby.

Then there is Fierceness's erratic nature. He runs well every other start and seems unable to overcome any adversity. In the Derby, with 20 horses, he's never going to get a clear, uncontested lead and a slow pace and probably, at some point will encounter some trouble. It's a very hard race in which to get a trouble-free trip.

When it comes to Fierceness-versus-Sierra Leone, the deciding factor could be the pace. As strong a late kick as he has, Sierra Leone still doesn't want to be 19^th in the Derby with someone, maybe Fierceness, setting slow fractions. If Fierceness can get loose on the lead he can absolutely win, Just don't expect that to happen in a 20-horse race where there is usually a pretty quick pace.

Even without Bob Baffert's participation, this looks like a deep, Derby field with a lot of quality. Can Fierceness win? Despite his tendency to throw in bad races, absolutely. But he's going to have to beat Sierra Leone and so will 18 other horses. He's the horse to beat.

Post Time is on a Roll

The GII Carter at Aqueduct has seen better days. Once one of the most important sprint races on the calendar, it was downgraded to a Grade II for this year and the race attracted all of four horses. But the winner was notable.

Even with the small field, this was the biggest test to date for the Brittany Russell-trained Post Time (Frosted). He came into the race with seven wins from eight career starts but some were arguing that he was just beating up on inferior competition in Maryland. His lone defeat had come in the Perryville S. at Keeneland, the only time he had run outside of Maryland.

As expected, Super Chow (Lord Nelson) got off to an uncontested lead and was allowed to set easy fractions. He went in 24.38 and 48.18 and Post Time was last. He then got carried out to the middle of the track by Super Chow, who has a bad habit of bearing out in the stretch. Despite all that, he was able to get the win, beating Castle Chaos (Palace Music) by a neck.

With Elite Power (Curlin) and Gunite (Gun Runner) both having been retired, Post Time could be on his way to an Eclipse Award.

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The victory, on the back of an equally decisive score in the GII Risen Star S. at the Fair Grounds Feb. 17, sets up a titanic clash of 'TDN Rising Stars' in the $5-million GI Kentucky Derby in a month's time with Eclipse champion 2-year-old Fierceness (City of Light), a far handier sort possessed of a high cruising speed that can be difficult to reel in.

Sierra Leone was to be the last to load in gate 10, but he proved a bit difficult to handle, delaying the start of the Blue Grass by about three minutes. A bit easy in the market, having touched 6-5 before leaving the gates at odds just north of 8-5, the $2.3-million topper from the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale was perhaps a half-step slow to begin, but slid down to race one off the inside and last but one into the first turn as stablemate Top Conor (Twirling Candy)–himself a $1-million OBS March breezer–cut out sharp fractions of :23.15 and :46.48 while tracked intently by recent GIII Gotham S. runner-up Just a Touch (Justify). Unhurried and patiently handled at the tail by Tyler Gaffalione, Sierra Leone raced well out into the track while taking plenty of dirt down the backstretch and still had a double-digit gap to bridge as the Blue Grass field entered the final half-mile.

Wisely angled back down towards the inside for a two-path run around the far turn, Sierra Leone began pick off rivals and was steered outside of Be You (Curlin) and about five deep into the lane. Just a Touch hit the front in upper stretch as inexperience caught up with Top Conor, but the lead was short-lived, as Sierra Leone gathered him up with relative ease while lugging in a bit entering the final sixteenth of a mile and strode clear. Epic Ride (Blame), a latest runner-up in the John Battaglia S. Mar. 2 and trying the dirt for the first time in his five-race career, was a very good third, while Dornoch (Good Magic) failed to capitalize on a box-seat trip and was an even fourth, 6 1/2 lengths behind Sierra Leone, who he had famously beaten a nose in last year's GII Remsen S.

“He didn't break the sharpest, but it actually gave me time to get over and save some ground into the first turn,” said Gaffalione. “He took the dirt just fine. Down the backside he got into a great rhythm. From the five-eighths pole on, he was moving like a winner. I was able to save some ground into the second turn, pop him out, and he just has so much talent.”

Added trainer Chad Brown, winning a third Blue Grass: “We're just trying to maintain pretty much the way he's been his whole life, a special horse. I don't know if they ever fully figure it out, but he's only had a handful of starts. But there's such good chemistry with Tyler and Sierra Leone his last two starts. You can see he wants to lean in a little bit, but it's never too bad. He's still polishing off his experience and his skills, and I just think a mile-and-a-quarter won't be a problem going forward. We're looking forward to it.”

Trainer Danny Gargan is far from willing to give up on Dornoch, the full-brother to last year's Derby winner Mage.

“He went really well. He got in there behind,” the trainer said. “It's his first time really getting a lot of dirt like that, he resented it a little bit early, [jockey] Luis [Saez] said. He said he kind of ran away from the horses. Next time, we'll break him out of [the starting gate on the lead] and keep his face clean, and he'll run better next time.

Accorded 'Rising Star' status after overcoming an eventful journey to graduate over Aqueduct's one-turn mile at first asking on Breeders' Cup Saturday, Nov. 4, Sierra Leone looked all but home after a heroic rally in the Remsen, only to have Dornoch come back on him at the post. Opting for the long Fair Grounds stretch for his sophomore debut in the Risen Star, he was as many as 10 off the inside in upper stretch and powered home to best Track Phantom (Quality Road) and next-out GII Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom (Constitution) by a half-length with blinkers on for the first time.

Pedigree Notes:

Sierra Leone is the eighth elite-level winner for his leading fourth-crop sire and is the only winner from his dam, who carried the silks of breeder Debby Oxley to victory in this track's GI Darley Alcibiades S. in 2017.

Heavenly Love is a daughter of Darling My Darling, a $300,000 Keeneland September purchase by John Oxley in 1998 who won the Doubledogdare S. and Raven Run S. in Lexington while also placing in the GI Frizette S. and GI Matron S. Darling My Darling is also the dam of 2016 GII Santa Ynez S. winner Forever Darling (Congrats), whose son Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) is the top 3-year-old dirt horse in Japan and followed up on a narrow victory in the G3 Saudi Derby Feb. 24 with success in the Mar. 30 G2 UAE Derby for trainer Yoshito Yahagi, stamping his own ticket to Louisville. Sierra Leone's Grade I-winning third dam also produced Japanese Horse of the Year Zenno Rob Roy (Jpn) (Sunday Silence).

Heavenly Love foaled a colt by Nyquist in 2022 and produced a full-sister to Sierra Leone Feb. 11.

Saturday, Keeneland
TOYOTA BLUE GRASS S.-GI, $995,782, Keeneland, 4-6, 3yo, 1 1/8m, 1:50.08, ft.
1–SIERRA LEONE, 123, c, 3, by Gun Runner
1st Dam: Heavenly Love (GISW, $346,200), by Malibu Moon
2nd Dam: Darling My Darling, by Deputy Minister
3rd Dam: Roamin Rachel, by Mining
1ST GRADE I WIN. ($2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG). 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Peter M. Brant, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg and Brook T. Smith; B-Debby M. Oxley (KY); T-Chad C. Brown; J-Tyler Gaffalione. $581,250. Lifetime Record: 4-3-1-0, $918,000. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus* Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Just a Touch, 123, c, 3, Justify–Touching Beauty, by Tapit. 1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. ($170,000 RNA Ylg '22 KEESEP; $125,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $300,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR). O-Qatar Racing, LLC, Resolute Racing and Marc Detampel; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. $187,500.
3–Epic Ride, 123, c, 3, Blame–Pick a Time, by Gio Ponti. 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE, 1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. ($160,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP). O-Welch Racing LLC; B-Fred W. Hertrich (KY); T-John Ennis. $93,750.
Margins: 1HF, 3 3/4, 1 1/4. Odds: 1.66, 3.31, 51.37.
Also Ran: Dornoch, Mugatu, Top Conor, Seize the Grey, Be You, Lat Long, Good Money. Scratched: Encino.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

#10 SIERRA LEONE ($5.32) explodes down the stretch to win Keeneland's $1,000,000 Blue Grass Stakes (G1)!@Tyler_Gaff gave the son of @Three_Chimneys's Gun Runner a perfectly-timed ride for trainer Chad Brown. Congratulations to the connections! pic.twitter.com/giC8STcap4

— TVG (@TVG) April 6, 2024

The post Sierra Leone Stamps His Authority On The Blue Grass appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Dornoch dug back gamely to defeat Sierra Leone in a heart-stopping renewal of the GII Remsen S. at a rain-soaked Aqueduct Dec. 2, then took care of business in a scratched-down GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 2. Sierra Leone, meanwhile, returned with an excellent come-from-behind victory over a sloppy surface at Fair Grounds in the GII Risen Star S. Feb. 17.

The Blue Grass field of 11 also includes the Brad Cox-trained duo of GIII Gotham S. Mar. 2 runner-up Just a Touch (Justify) and John Battaglia Memorial S. Mar. 2 winner Encino (Nyquist).

“Just at Touch is a very talented horse,” Cox said. “He's shown talent from day one. He was a little late to get to the races, but it was by design. (Dornoch and Sierra Leone) got to the races a little bit earlier, so obviously they have more seasoning. I think this horse is one of our better 3-year-olds. I'm excited against running against these colts. It's a Grade I with very talented horses. It looks to be one of the better Derby preps to date.”

A pair of unbeatens–'TDN Rising Star' Deterministic (Liam's Map) and Tuscan Sky (Vino Rosso)–lead a field of 13 set for the GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct.

Deterministic, an eye-catching debut winner going seven furlongs at Saratoga Aug. 12, showed no signs of rust resurfacing from the bench with an impressive victory in the slop over the aforementioned Just a Touch in the one-turn mile Gotham. Tuscan Sky makes his stakes debut after defeating the talented Nash (Medaglia d'Oro) in an optional claimer on the Risen Star program. Parx invader Uncle Heavy (Social Inclusion) returns to the Big Apple after upsetting the GIII Withers S. over track and trip Feb. 3.

“The Gotham was a very good race and a good field over a wet track–he handled the whole thing well,” trainer Christophe Clement said of the Wood Memorial 7-5 morning-line favorite Deterministic. “It will be interesting to see him going two turns. We'll just go one step at a time. You never know until you try, but his style of racing and the way he trains makes you believe he should stay.”

A pair of last out graded winners–Imagination (Into Mischief) and Stronghold (Ghostzapper)–share top billing in the GI Santa Anita Derby. Imagination posted a career-best 96 Beyer Speed Figure for trainer Bob Baffert while gamely annexing the GII San Felipe S. Mar. 3. Stronghold, second in the GIII Bob Hope S. Nov. 19 and GII Los Alamitos Futurity Dec. 16, broke through with a win in the GIII Sunland Park Derby Feb. 18. Both colts have finished no worse than second in five career starts.

The Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial all offer qualifying points to its top five finishers (100-50-25-15-10) toward the GI Kentucky Derby. Churchill Downs has barred Baffert's trainees from participating in this year's Kentucky Derby and GI Kentucky Oaks stemming in part from a well-documented medication positive found after Medina Spirit won the 2021 Derby.

There are also a pair of Kentucky Oaks preps on tap at Aqueduct at Santa Anita Saturday.

'TDN Rising Star' Kinza (Carpe Diem), winner of the GIII Las Virgenes S. Feb. 10 and GIII Santa Ysabel S. Mar. 9, will put her perfect record on the line for Baffert in the GII Santa Anita Oaks. The field of five also includes Kopion (Omaha Beach), who reported home second-best behind Kinza last time in the Las Virgenes.

Life Talk (Gun Runner) will look to get back on track in the GIII Gazelle S. at the Big A. The GII Demoiselle S. heroine was a disappointing sixth as the heavy favorite in Tampa's Suncoast S. Feb. 10. Maiden of seven starts Where's My Ring (Twirling Candy) makes the trip from Southern California for the Gazelle following a longshot second in the Santa Ysabel.

Saturday's graded stakes also include a fantastic renewal of the GI Resolute Racing Madison S. The field of eight is led by standouts Alva Starr (Lord Nelson), Red Carpet Ready (Oscar Performance) and Vahva (Gun Runner). Keeneland's stacked Blue Grass program also features the GII Appalachian S., GII Shakertown S. and GIII Commonwealth S., respectively.

Saturday's graded action is rounded out by the GII Carter H. and GIII Distaff S. at Aqueduct and the GIII Monrovia S. at Santa Anita.

The post Led by Loaded Blue Grass, Trio of Derby Preps Highlight Saturday’s Graded Stakes Lineup appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Dornoch has put in front-running performances in each of his last three victories with jockey Luis Saez aboard, but trainer Danny Gargan believes it is only because no one has been able to keep up with the speedy sophomore. Gargan said he hopes that Saturday's Derby prep at Keeneland will be an educational opportunity for Dornoch.

“We'll see what happens, but I'm going to tell [Saez] to break running and I think there will be a couple of horses who are going to come out wanting the lead,” Gargan explained. “We'd like to see him a length or half a length behind them and go around following horses so he's not on the lead the whole way.”

Gargan seems to believe that we may even see a different side of Dornoch if he is given the opportunity to stalk.

“He likes to have horses around him,” he said. “We're not taking him back to last or anything crazy, but we'd like to stalk. If he has competition I wouldn't say he runs any different, but he stays more in the bridle, more focused. We just want him to have some competition and to keep him going.”

Dornoch has put in three works at Palm Meadows since his Fountain of Youth score. In his last work on March 30, the colt went four furlongs in :47.25 (1/35).

“He's pretty talented in all his works,” said Gargan. “He's a really good work horse. We worked him a little stronger last time. We wanted to get a strong work in him because the week before, weather occurred and the track wasn't perfect to our liking. So we decided to get a little stronger work in him and we're happy with how he came out of it.”

Dornoch was originally slated to travel north to Keeneland earlier this week, but bad weather pushed back his arrival to Thursday. The colt was able to get a feel for the track that he broke his maiden on last October early on Friday morning.

Dornoch at Keeneland | Sara Gordon

“I think it ended up working well,” said Gargan. “We kept him [at Palm Meadows] where the weather was good and we were able to train. We didn't really want to get involved in the tornados and the storms or be on the highways when it was going to be that bad. So it worked out. He shipped in and looks great and knock on wood, everything is going good. Now we will just relax and hopefully have a fun day.”

Dornoch will break from post four for Saturday's mile and an eighth contest.

The 11-horse Blue Grass will offer Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers. Both Sierra Leone and 3-1 second choice Dornoch are expected to already have enough qualifying points with 55 and 60 points, respectively.

The Brad Cox duo of Just A Touch (Justify), who was second to Deterministic (Liam's Map) last time out in the GIII Gotham, and Encino (Nyquist), who makes his dirt debut after a win in the John Battaglia Memorial S. at Turfway Park, both look to add to the competition. The Repole Stable-campaigned, Todd Pletcher-trained Be You (Curlin) also comes in off an eye-catching maiden win at Gulfstream Park that earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure.

Gargan, a native of Lousville, will be searching for his first Grade I win on Saturday in the Blue Grass. He will also be sending out another potential Kentucky Derby-bound son of Good Magic in Society Man for the GII Wood Memorial S.

Ahead of a key stallion-making race, Gargan is hopeful that Dornoch can follow in the footsteps of his older brother, 2023 GI Kentucky Derby winner Mage.

“To be a full-brother to the Kentucky Derby winner, if he could win a Grade I too, that's life changing,” said Gargan. “Winning this race would be spectacular. It'd be great for his resume and for his whole family.”

Speaking of Dornoch's family, his dam Puca (Big Brown) just delivered a full-brother to Mage and Dornoch on the eve of opening day of Keeneland's Spring Meet at John Stewart's Resolute Farm.

“Puca, dam of 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and Dornoch who is on the road to the Kentucky Derby this Saturday at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes, just gave birth to a massive colt by Good Magic,” John Stewart said in a Tweet. “Little bro will be watching.”

Breaking news from @rresoluteracing. PUCA, dam of 2023 Kentucky Derby Winner @ChurchillDowns MAGE and DORNOCH who is on the road to the #Kentuckyderby this Saturday @keeneland in the #bluegrassstakes, just gave birth to a massive colt by GOOD MAGIC. Good Luck DORNOCH. Little bro… pic.twitter.com/QSnE7DrZZ8

— Jstewartrr (@jstewartrr) April 5, 2024

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Dornoch (Good Magic) (post four), a full-brother to GI 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage, is the second choice on the morning line at 3-1. Trained by Danny Gargan, Dornoch enters off a front-running victory in the GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 2. Dornoch defeated Sierra Leone by a nose in the GII Remsen S.

“That's a good spot,” Gargan said. “He came out of the three hole in the Fountain of Youth and the Remsen. He will come out of there running and make his way through.”

Third choice on the morning line at 7-2 is Just a Touch (Justify), who enters off a runner-up effort in the GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar. 2. Florent Geroux has the mount from post position 6.

The Toyota Blue Grass offers 200 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale.

Here's the field for the 100th running of the @Toyota Blue Grass (G1) on Saturday, April 6! pic.twitter.com/RmbtAvmLWJ

— Keeneland Racing (@keenelandracing) April 2, 2024

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“We just fell in love with him,” recalled Michael Levinson, the racing manager and one of the four partners that make up L &N Racing. “He was probably an inch or two on the shorter side, but we thought if he grows up a little bit, he had the scope and he looked fast. Obviously all those things kind of worked out, but you didn't know at the time that the Quality Road out of an Into Mischief mare who had won as a sprinter was going to be able to go two turns and do it pretty easily.”

Not only has he done it easily, but he's done it impressively enough to be the 3-1 morning-line favorite going into this weekend's GII Louisiana Derby. Trained by Steve Asmussen, two-time stakes winner Track Phantom is coming in off a narrow runner-up performance to Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) in the GII Risen Star. The speed-centric sophomore has drawn the widest post in Saturday's contest as 12 colts vie for points on the road to the GI Kentucky Derby.

The L and N Racing partnership–which is comprised of Levinson, his father Lee, his brother Andy and their family friend Don Nelson–has made the trip for Track Phantom's last two races at Fair Grounds and the Tulsa-based group will be on hand once again for Saturday's contest.

“Everybody is really excited,” Levinson said. “We think we have a legit Derby contender. Obviously that could change Saturday, but we're confident he's going to run. Steve just sent me a video of him [Thursday] morning and he looks fantastic.”

Track Phantom battles Sierra Leone in the GII Risen Star | Hodges Photography

Levinson said that what has impressed him most about the flashy bay's career thus far is how he seems to improve in each of his starts.

Track Phantom was third in his debut last October at Churchill Downs and then a close second to fellow Louisiana Derby entrant Real Men Violin (Mendelssohn) a few weeks later. He took control early and won going away in his first try going two turns on Nov 25. From there it was on to the Fair Grounds, where he reeled off front-running wins in the Gun Runner S. and GIII Lecomte S.

His biggest competition came over a sloppy track in the GII Risen Star, where he again took the lead early but was nailed in the final strides by Sierra Leone, the $2.3 million Chad Brown trainee owned by the partnership of Coolmore, Brook Smith and Peter Brant.

Levinson didn't mind running second. He knew the track conditions were working against his colt.

“I was at the races all day and was noticing just how sticky the track had gotten,” he recalled. “From even two races before ours until the time of our race, the sun had gone down, it was cold, and I think the track was just really heavy. Everybody is saying the pace was slow, but I just think that track had gotten really, really slow there at the end. I think in the last six races, they all came from the back. But Track Phantom got out in front and he almost held on to win and got run down by the Derby favorite. That's nothing to be upset about. You want to win, but I thought his run was brilliant.”

Levinson added that he believes Track Phantom's front-running style sets him apart from many of the top colts pointing for the first Saturday in May.

“I think he's a special horse this year with the fact that if you look at a lot of the contenders, they all want to run from off the pace,” he explained. “He's really one of the only speed horses. Steve has always really liked this colt and he just seems to get better each race. The plan is to win the Louisiana Derby and then take a shot at the Kentucky Derby.”

L and N Racing has been to the Derby once before. In an instance of what some would call beginner's luck, Lookin at Lee (Lookin at Lucky) was the first horse their operation bought at public auction and he not only got to the Kentucky Derby in 2017, but overcame the dreaded one hole and put in a strong runner-up performance to Always Dreaming.

Seven years later, the partners in L and N Racing are far from amateur owners and they've had their share of bad luck as they now hope to get to their second Kentucky Derby. They understand not only how difficult it can be to find that Grade I-level horse, but also how quickly those dreams can come crashing down.

It was only a month ago that they lost their stable star Echo Zulu (Gun Runner). Campaigned in partnership with Winchell Thoroughbreds, the 2021 champion 2-year-old filly and four-time Grade I winner was training up for the Breeders' Cup last fall at Santa Anita when she suffered two broken left front sesamoids. Three months later, the talented 5-year-old sustained an injury in her stall and was euthanized.

Levinson leads future champion Echo Zulu into the winner's circle after her 2021 GI Spinaway S. victory | Sarah Andrew

“She is everything to us,” Levinson reflected. “I mean, she was a brilliant filly. I have a wall in my office of all of her graded stakes wins and those will be left up for as long as I'm alive. She deserved a better ending. It's just so tough and it's hard to put into words.”

Echo Zulu has left a lasting impact on every aspect of L and N Racing's operation, even when it comes to their buying strategies at the sale.

“We're up to about 50-50 between colts and fillies now,” Levinson reported. “God rest her soul, Echo Zulu made us more comfortable with the fillies and honestly she's probably the reason that we have Track Phantom right now. She was one of those horses that gives you the confidence to go out and make a financial risk on a horse like Track Phantom and some of the other ones we've bought.”

A growing number of partnerships is another aspect of L and N's strategy that has changed in recent years so that they can increase their budget at the sales.

“We'd rather buy quality over quantity at this point, so we're trying to limit what we're buying,” Levinson explained. “We really like to focus on pedigrees at the sale, buying graded stakes-type horses and if we happen to ever get lucky with one of them, hopefully they can make a stallion.”

At last year's Keeneland September Sale, L and N Racing came home with four yearlings, including a $500,000 Into Mischief half-brother to MSW Mr. Buff (Friend Or Foe). The Authentic filly who was the least expensive purchase among the quartet–bought for $300,000–recently received a big pedigree update when her brother Newgate (Into Mischief) won the GI Santa Anita H.

Hot Springs native and successful Oaklawn-based owner Jerry Caroom is a partner on that Authentic filly and is also in on Track Phantom. Track Phantom's ownership group also includes Clark Brewster, another Levinson family friend from Tulsa, and the colt's breeder, Breeze Easy LLC.

“The ownership group is a lot of fun,” said Levinson. “We're very close to all these people and we'd just love to see everybody at the Derby for the first Saturday in May and get to take a shot and see if we could win it.”

Levinson knows a lot can happen in the next six weeks, so for now he plans on enjoying every moment of the weekend and soaking in the highs of the sport as they come.

“We love the animals and we love everything about this sport, but it's a game where if you're not prepared for disappointment, you shouldn't be in it,” he said. “If you win one out of every ten times, you're doing okay. It's that 10 or 15% of the time when you do win that keeps you coming back.”

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Ocala horseman David Scanlon is not just a leading 2-year-old consignor, but he has also built an impressive list of training graduates for leading owners like Godolphin, Coolmore, Don Alberto, and Calumet Farm. In both capacities, Scanlon's operation is well represented on this year's GI Kentucky Derby trail. He was in charge of the early training of leading Derby contender Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) and his Scanlon Training & Sales pinhooked GIII Gotham S. runner-up Just a Touch (Justify).

Whether he is training a horse for a client to race or one of his own destined for resale, Scanlon said they all start with the same training regimen.

“When we go through the breaking and basic training, pretty much everyone is on the same schedule,” Scanlon said. “Everybody goes through getting acquainted with the rider, getting ridden, from small round pens to paddocks, to big fields, to the racetrack. So that's usually our technique that we use and that's pretty much standard for all of our horses.”

Eventually the sales calendar forces the two groups to diverge in their training.

“With a lot of these racehorses, especially for my higher-end clients, these horses who are going to be late summer or Saratoga classic horses, we will plan their work schedules to start much later. Whereas, with the 2-year-olds, I will look at a sales date and then I start to work backwards from the breeze show dates. I want to start a couple of months away and say I am going to start my light schedules here and at this point, we need to be doing this with him and going this fast.”

Sierra Leone | Hodges Photography / Lou Hodges, Jr.

But plotting out a course for his pinhook prospects necessarily begins in the fall when Scanlon and his team are shopping at the yearling sales. Without the seemingly limitless budget of some of those high-end clients, he has learned what corners he can cut while still finding success the following spring in the sales ring.

“It's really hard to get everything for us,” Scanlon said. “The old saying, checking all the boxes, if they have a real high-end fancy pedigree, and they also have a great body and conformation, that's usually going to be hard for a pinhooker to buy. You are usually going to get beat by an end-user.”

Buying on a budget over the years has led Scanlon to accept certain conformational flaws, but always in the context of the entire horse.

“The one thing we always look for, say a horse's conformation isn't perfect, they may toe in, they may toe out or they are a little offset in the knees, you still want them to have a big, athletic walk and see how they walk through it,” Scanlon said. “Maybe we are going to buy a horse that is a little bit off-set in the knees, but he ends up walking through it really well. If I am looking at a horse and he is toed in, but he walks really well through it, I may forgive that horse. But if he comes at me and he has a lot of action in his walk–like a wing, as they say–that's not good. That horse may not be a good mover or a galloper, too. If they don't walk through it well, then they don't move as well.”

That winnowing process that pinhookers are forced to use at the yearling sales in the fall makes for outstanding offerings at the 2-year-old sales, according to Scanlon.

“Some of the best horse people I know have basically gone through and already short-listed horses,” he said of the pinhookers. “We look at thousands of yearlings all year and go ahead with what we've discovered as athletes. Year in and year out, you always see at the top of the standings, horses that the top 10 pinhookers have picked out. I don't think it's a coincidence that they are, every year, some of the best 2-year-olds in the country. It's our job and what we've done for a long time. We have done this so many times, we know what really works and what doesn't. Sometimes when you just have an open check book, maybe it means a little bit more to us, it's how we make our living. It's very important to know what works and what doesn't.”

Scanlon-trained colt by Constitution sells for $800,000 at last week's OBS March sale | Photos by Z

While innuendo and speculation continue to swirl around the 2-year-old sales, Scanlon said he thinks the sales companies have made impressive progress in regulating both the horses and their sellers.

“I think the sales companies are really doing a good job, especially in the last two years,” he said. “I don't think people are actually highlighting enough how far the sales companies have come with their medication rules. It was really a little more open a few years ago, but in the last two years, they have really tried to adopt rules that come along a little bit more in line with what HISA is trying to tell the racing public. Can you always do a little bit more? I am sure you can. And I think that is what they are working on. I do believe there is a lot of disclosure in the sale.

“With some of the stuff they've been talking about, like Clenbuterol, I just feel like that is something that doesn't have a place anymore. We don't even keep that on the farm anymore, for any use. It's one of those things that, with the way the world is now, it's just something we don't need to have around here knowing it's frowned upon and the penalties.”

Asked if there were any changes he would like to see, Scanlon said, “I think the sales companies not being so lenient on some of the guys who do have violations. Enough slaps on the wrist, if you have this many, that's it. You're not going to be able to sell. I do feel like some of the rules with people who have multiple violations will need to be more stringent in the future, just to give people a little more confidence going forward.”

And what advice would he give to potential buyers at the juvenile sales?

“I think the buyers need to educate themselves,” he said. “I think buyers need to realize, when they come to these sales, they need to do a little bit of homework, too, on the people they are doing business with. Spend some time, go through the results. To me, when you go ahead and open the TDN, or if you see guys who are selling multiple winners, guys who have been around for a long time and have sold a lot of winners, they have been established. Ask around and know who you are dealing with. Those are the kind of people I think you want to do business with. I'm not saying everybody doesn't deserve a shot to start a business, but some of these guys can be fly by night. You want to take your time with that.”

Despite the issues that still need to be confronted, Scanlon stressed it was important to appreciate the gains that have already been made.

“I think sometimes in this sport, we are facing a lot of challenges right now, but I don't think we always stop to look at how far we've actually come in the last few years,” he said. “I do think the 2-year-old sales companies are really trying to work together to improve the sport as far as medication and how it all comes together.”

To view the entire 2023 X-Ray Files series, click here.

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