A field of 12 sophomores, a few more promising than the others, is expected to line up about that time for the 42nd running of the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile race awarding “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points to the first four finishers on a 10-4-2-1 scale.

The Sam F. Davis is one of four main-track stakes races on a good-looking, 11-race Festival Preview Day card beginning at 12:11 p.m. The program includes three other stakes races: the $150,000, mile-and-40-yard Suncoast Stakes for 3-year-old fillies, a Road to the Kentucky Oaks points race to be contested as the eighth race; the $100,000, six-furlong Pelican Stakes, for 4-year-olds and-upward, which is the seventh race; and the $50,000, six-furlong Minaret Stakes, for fillies and mares 4-and-upward, scheduled as the sixth.

In addition to being a field of dreams for breeders, owners, trainers, jockeys and stable workers, the Sam F. Davis is the major prep race for the Grade 2, $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, which is the showcase event of a $1-million-plus Festival Day card on March 12 featuring four graded stakes races.

To get to Festival Day, the Sam F. Davis entrants need to show they've upped their games off their 2-year-old performances. There is no shortage of confident handlers.

“It's a good (Kentucky) Derby prep race, the timing is good and our horse is healthy and doing everything right,” said Dale Romans, the trainer of Kentucky-bred colt Howling Time, expected to be one of the betting favorites.

“(The Sam F. Davis) is a good race to get your horse to the next level, and it's a great race to win on its own. But we are looking down the road (with Howling Time),” Romans said.

Howling Time, who is owned by Albaugh Family Stables and will be ridden by his regular jockey, Joseph Talamo, won his first two starts as a 2-year-old, including the Street Sense Stakes on Oct. 31 at Churchill Downs, before fading to a fifth-place finish in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on Nov. 27 at Churchill. “No one else wanted the lead,” Romans said, “and I don't think that's where this horse wants to run.”

Romans said he hopes Talamo can place Howling Time somewhere behind the leaders before unleashing his best run late. “This horse never gets tired, and we just want to get him to finish with a nice run and hopefully win,” Romans said.

Joining Howling Time from the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is Kentucky-bred colt Classic Causeway, who finished a solid second in that race to Smile Happy. Irad Ortiz, Jr., will take over the riding assignment from Joel Rosario. Classic Causeway is 1-for-3, including a third-place finish on Oct. 9 in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland.

Trainer Brian Lynch said he is sending Classic Causeway from his south Florida base to Tampa Bay Downs on Thursday, with the intention of jogging him Friday morning and schooling him in the paddock Friday afternoon.

“I'd like to see him get his first graded-stakes victory and keep picking up Derby points,” said Lynch, who trains Classic Causeway for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke M. Cooper. “His workouts have been solid, and everything about them suggests he should run well.

“I feel that if he runs his race, he will certainly fit with these horses,” Lynch said. “He has a high cruising speed and he has gotten much bigger and stronger as a 3-year-old. He has the tactical speed to not be very far from the engine room, and hopefully he will be first to the wire.”

While Classic Causeway earned six points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” for his two graded-stakes efforts, Red Oak Stable's unbeaten (3-for-3) colt Make It Big gained 10 points on Dec. 17 by winning the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park in Oklahoma, his second stakes victory.

Trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr., said Jose Ortiz, Irad's brother, will again ride Make It Big.

“I talked it over a few weeks ago with Rick Sacco, the racing manager for Red Oak, and he recommended the (Sam F. Davis) would be a good choice for his 3-year-old debut,” Joseph said. “We didn't expect the race to come up this tough, but I'm excited to see how he stacks up.”

Joseph said Make It Big was forced to overcome adversity in the Springboard Mile. “He got in between horses and had to rate a bit, and then he got hooked late (by runner-up Osbourne) and had to out-battle him to the wire. It was a very professional performance,” Joseph said.

“This horse has a good mind, and he has found a way to win each time. He probably needs to improve to win Saturday, but he has improved in each race, so hopefully he will follow suit.”

Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse has entered three horses in the Sam F. Davis, including Grade 3 Grey Stakes winner God of Love, a supplementary entry after not being originally nominated. Casse's other runners are Golden Glider and Volcanic.

Here is the full field for the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes in post position order, with trainers and jockeys:

1. Mr Rum Runner, Patrick Biancone, Romero Ramsay Maragh

2. Unpredictable Bay, Alnaz Ali, Alonso Quinonez

3. Classic Causeway, Brian Lynch, Irad Ortiz, Jr.

4. Golden Glider, Mark Casse, Antonio Gallardo

5. God of Love, Mark Casse, Rafael M. Hernandez

6. Trademark, Victoria Oliver, Daniel Centeno

7. Make It Big, Saffie Joseph, Jr., Jose Ortiz

8. Shipsational, Edward Barker, Javier Castellano

9. Howling Time, Dale Romans, Joseph Talamo

10. Volcanic, Mark Casse, Edwin Gonzalez

11. Strike Hard, Matthew J. Williams, Leonel Reyes

12. Kitten Mischief, Jonathan Thomas, Manuel Franco;

13. (also-eligible) Little Vic, Juan Carlos Avila, Paco Lopez.

The 42nd edition of the Suncoast Stakes appears to have a standout in Nest, 2-for-3 after her victory on Dec. 4 at Aqueduct in the Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes. The daughter of Curlin, out of the A.P. Indy mare Marion Ravenwood, is owned by Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Michael House and is trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher.

Here is the full field for the $150,000 Suncoast Stakes in post position order, with trainers and jockeys:

1. Blamethechampagne, Ian Wilkes, Rafael M. Hernandez

2. Nest, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz, Jr.

3. Alittleloveandluck, Mike Dini, Paco Lopez

4. Mining Chrome, Gerald Bennett, Roberto Alvarado, Jr.

5. Mirth 'n Merriment, Tim Hamm, Rocco Bowen

6. Peaceful Surprise, Christophe Clement, Samy Camacho

7. Ha' Penny, Joseph Orseno, Luca Panici

8. Princess Elin, Alnaz Ali, Alonso Quinonez.

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A full field of 12 is expected for the Sam F. Davis, one of four dirt stakes on a Festival Preview Day card offering $550,000 in stakes purse money. Also scheduled are the $150,000 Suncoast Stakes, a “Road to the Kentucky Oaks” points race for 3-year-old fillies at a mile and 40 yards; the $100,000 Pelican Stakes, a six-furlong sprint for horses 4-years-old-and-upward; and the $50,000 Minaret Stakes, for fillies and mares 4-and-upward at 6 furlongs.

For the Sam F. Davis entrants, the race marks the first major test to determine if they are worthy of staying on the path to Louisville for the May 7 Run for the Roses. The Sam F. Davis awards points to the first four finishers on a 10-4-2-1 scale toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby, which is limited to 20 starters.

The Sam F. Davis is also the main prep race for the Grade 2, $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, one of five stakes races – four graded – on the track's March 12 Festival Day card. The Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby awards 50 points to the winner on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby,” with the next three finishers earning 20, 10 and 5 points.

Entries for Festival Preview Day will be taken Wednesday in the Tampa Bay Downs Racing Office.

Probables for the Sam F. Davis include Red Oak Stable's Florida-bred colt Make It Big, who was 3-for-3 as a 2-year-old for trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. Make It Big won the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes on Dec. 17 at Remington Park in his most recent start.

Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse is expected to enter both Conrad Farms's colt Golden Glider and Breeze Easy, LLC's colt Volcanic. Golden Glider won a mile-and-40-yard allowance/optional claiming race on Jan. 7 at Tampa Bay Downs to improve to 2-for-2, while Volcanic broke his maiden on Jan. 8 going a mile at Gulfstream Park.

Other Sam F. Davis probables include Albaugh Family Stables, LLC's colt Howling Time, a stakes winner from the barn of Dale Romans; the Brian Lynch-trained colt Classic Causeway, who finished third last year in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity and second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes; Kitten Mischief, from the barn of trainer Jonathan Thomas; two-time stakes winner Shipsational, trained by Edward R. Barker; and Trademark, a gelding who won his last two starts of 2021 at Churchill Downs, trained by Victoria Oliver.

Like the Sam F. Davis, the Suncoast Stakes awards qualifying points for the May 6 Kentucky Oaks for fillies on a 10-4-2-1 scale. The field for the Kentucky Oaks is limited to 14 starters.

Among the Suncoast probables is the Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Michael House-owned Nest, who won the Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes on Dec. 4 at Aqueduct. She is trained by Todd Pletcher.

Also expected to try the Suncoast are the Mike Dini-owned and trained Florida-bred Alittleloveandluck, winner of the Ginger Brew Stakes on the turf on Jan. 1 at Gulfstream in her most recent start; Freedom Rose, from the barn of Michael Campbell; Peaceful Surprise, who broke her maiden here on Jan. 14 for trainer Christophe Clement; and trainer Alnaz Ali's Princess Elin.

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The Sam F. Davis Stakes, contested at a distance of a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the main dirt track, is a “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points race, with the top four finishers receiving points on a 10-4-2-1 scale toward qualifying for a spot in the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs on May 7. The Sam F. Davis is also a precursor to the Grade 2, $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby on March 12, a “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points race awarding 50, 20, 10 and 5 points to the first four finishers.

Three other stakes are scheduled on the Festival Preview Day card. They include the $150,000, mile-and-40-yard Suncoast Stakes for 3-year-old fillies, which is a “Road to the Kentucky Oaks” points race; the $100,000, 6-furlong Pelican Stakes, for horses 4-years-old-and-upward; and the $50,000, 6-furlong Minaret Stakes, for fillies and mares 4-and-upward.

The list of Sam F. Davis nominations includes eight from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won the race a record six times, most recently with Destin in 2016. Heading the list of Pletcher-trained candidates is Mo Donegal, who won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Dec. 4 at Aqueduct, and Emmanuel, who won Sunday's sixth race impressively at Tampa.

Rattle N Roll, a Kentucky-bred colt owned by the Mackin family's Lucky Seven Stable and trained by Ken McPeek, won the 1 1/16-mile Claiborne Breeders' Futurity by a widening 4 ¼ lengths under jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. After targeting a start in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance at Del Mar, McPeek changed course after the horse developed a minor foot issue.

Rattle N Roll returned to the workout tab earlier this month at Gulfstream Park and breezed three furlongs Saturday in 35.67 seconds.

Make It Big, owned by Red Oak Stable and trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr., won the Ocala Stud Juvenile Sprint Stakes on Oct. 30 at Gulfstream and the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes on Dec. 17 at Remington Park in his last two starts. Jose Ortiz was aboard for the most recent victory.

Here are the links to the nominations and their past performances for the Sam F. Davis Stakes:

https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SN-TAM-20220212-573142

https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SNPP-TAM-20220212-573142

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The 36th running of the Inaugural Stakes for 2-year-olds and the 44th edition of the Sandpiper Stakes for 2-year-old fillies begin a progression of Oldsmar stakes races that could lead the best of the bunch to a date with equine destiny in more lucrative engagements as 3-year-olds next year (for record-keeping purposes, all Thoroughbreds are considered to age a year on Jan. 1).

The Inaugural has drawn 28 nominations, while the Sandpiper has attracted 33 nominations. The Inaugural, for colts and geldings, is designed as a precursor to the $125,000 seven-furlong Pasco Stakes on Jan. 15. The next steps for the most talented of the males include the $250,000 Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on Feb. 12 and the $400,000 G2 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby on March 12.

Both the Sam F. Davis and the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby are “Road to the Kentucky Derby” races, awarding points to the first four finishers toward qualifying for a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., in the Run for the Roses on May 7.

Gerry Stanislawzyk, the Tampa Bay Downs Stakes Coordinator, said possible Inaugural starters include the gelding Captain Cajun, who broke his maiden on Oct. 3 at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla. The son of Cajun Breeze is trained by Michael Yates, who won last year's Inaugural with Poppy's Pride.

Other Inaugural possible include gelding Concrete Glory, whose three career victories for trainer Gerald Brooks have come at different tracks; Little Vic, a maiden winner at Gulfstream from the barn of trainer Juan Carlos Avila; Viva Victory, a winner on turf at Monmouth Park in Oceanport, N.J., in his only start for owner-trainer Arnoud Dobber; and Whistlewhileyoumow, who broke his maiden earlier this month at Hawthorne Race Course in Stickney, Ill., for trainer Jon Arnett.

The next step after the Sandpiper for the fillies is the $125,000 seven-furlong Gasparilla Stakes on Jan. 15. Those showing sufficient talent and desire could then advance to the $150,000 Suncoast Stakes, a mile-and-40-yard contest on Feb. 12.

The Suncoast is a “Road to the Kentucky Oaks” race, awarding points to the first four finishers toward earning a spot in the May 6 Kentucky Oaks.

Sandpiper possibles, according to Stanislawzyk, include Last Leaf, whose three victories from six starts for trainer Ron Spatz include a score in the Hollywood Beach Stakes on the turf on Sept. 25 at Gulfstream.

Other possible entrants include Strategic Bird, who broke her maiden by 12 ¾ lengths in her career debut on Nov. 13 at Gulfstream for trainer Mark Casse; Chasing Happiness, a David Fawkes-trainee who broke her maiden at Gulfstream earlier this month by 6 ½ lengths; and She's My Warrior, who won the Northern Lights Debutant Stakes in September at Canterbury Park in Shakopee, Minn., for trainer Tim Padilla.

The Inaugural and the Sandpiper are part of what is certain to be a December to remember as action at Tampa Bay Downs heats up approaching the holiday season.

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Bred by Gil Campbell's Stonehedge LLC, The 5-year-old son of With Distinction, who captured the 2019 Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs in Tampa, Fla., won his sixth race from nine starts since coming off a layoff following a private purchase by his trainer Kathleen O'Connell.

“He needed some time off and Mr. Campbell has a lot of horses. I was willing to give him some time off,” O'Connell said of the sale. “It's a gamble. Sometimes, they come back and sometimes they don't. I have ones come back that have never been half of what they were. I'm just glad he made a whole recovery, and Mr. Campbell still reaps the benefits because he's the breeder. It's a win, win, win.”

Well Defined, who was sent to post as the 6-5 favorite in a field of seven in the seven-furlong stakes for Florida-breds, was beaten to the lead by Travy Boy, who set fractions of :22.75 and :45.03 seconds for the first half mile while pressed by the favorite. Well Defined took the lead entering the stretch under Emisael Jaramillo but started to falter in the final yards and was just able to hold off the late outside surge by Shivaree, a multiple-stakes winner who finished second behind Tiz The Law in the 2020 Grade 1 Florida Derby.

“I think he's better loose on the lead, but I think Jaramillo made a great decision sitting off a horse that was sharp coming off a layoff,” O'Connell said.

Well Defined, who earned a $25,000 Florida Sire Stakes Win Only bonus in addition to the winner's share of the purse, ran seven furlongs in 1:23.47. Shivaree finished three-quarters of a length ahead of third-place finisher Pro Quality.

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None of the weekend's races has been overly productive for Triple Crown success.

The Grade 3 Withers has been around since 1874, run at different New York tracks but only moved to February at Aqueduct in 2012. Before that, Bernardini used the Withers in 2006 as a tune-up for his victory in the G1 Preakness Stakes. No winner since has been victorious in a Triple Crown race.

The G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs has been a gateway race to bigger and better things for several horses in recent years. Most notably, Tapwrit, the Davis runner-up to McCraken in 2017, would win that year's G1 Belmont Stakes, doing one better than 2016 Davis winner Destin, who fell a nose short of Creator in the Belmont. Both Tapwrit and Destin were trained by Todd Pletcher.

Finally, the G2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita – the only one of the three races not offering Kentucky Derby points – has a solid roster of winners led by 1997 Kentucky Derby-Preakness victor Silver Charm and by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. At seven furlongs, it's often used as a starting point for 3-year-olds getting ready to stretch out to longer distances.

Before we look at those three race winners, there was also a highly anticipated maiden event on Sunday at Santa Anita involving one of the most hyped horses of the year, Bezos, a colt by Empire Maker from the Bob Baffert stable. The massive colt, weighing in at over 1,300 pounds, was being compared to horses like Triple Crown winner Justify, who didn't make his first start until mid-February. Bezos had trained forwardly last year, from early May through late July. Baffert backed off until late in the year, with the colt breezing 10 times from early December until his debut, where he was made the 3-5 favorite.

Bezos, ridden by Mike Smith, got a perfect trip in the 6 ½-furlong race, sitting just behind dueling pacesetters for the opening half mile. But when the field turned for home, Bezos came up empty, winding up seventh of nine runners, beaten 15 ¼ lengths by a 20-1 longshot named Dream Shake, a Twirling Candy colt making his career debut for Peter Eurton.

Dream Shake is geared down nearing the wire by Joel Rosario

With Joel Rosario in the saddle, Dream Shake broke alertly from the outside post and remained wide throughout. Eighth after the opening quarter mile (in a slow :23.40), Dream Shake made a strong run from inside the half mile pole to the quarter pole that brought him into contention. He quickly moved to the lead while still wide, was under an aggressive hand ride from Rosario and got one tap of the whip in midstretch while pulling away. He was wrapped up in the end, winning by 4 ¾ lengths in 1:17.34 on a fast track and earning a 96 Beyer Speed Figure that was higher than any of the weekend Triple Crown prep stakes winners.

Bred by Dunwoody Farm, Dream Shake was a $32,000 pinhook from the Keeneland September Yearling Sale that Cary Frommer sold for $75,000 at the OBS Spring Sale of 2-year-olds in training. He races for Exline-Border Racing, SAF Racing and Richard Hausman.

Now, on to the three stakes races. My Report Card grades are on an A to F scale and are subjective, based on my personal “eyeball test,” Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of field.

Feb. 6 Withers Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct

Risk Taking was made the 19-10 favorite off a solid maiden win in his third career start on Dec. 13 going 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct. Trainer Chad Brown debuted the Medaglia d'Oro colt sprinting at Belmont October 10 when he raced in seventh throughout. Next start was going 1 1/16 miles on turf, where Risk Taking was a non-threatening sixth. Blinkers were added for his maiden-breaking score and that seems to have awakened Risk Taking.

Risk Taking and Eric Cancel at the wire in the Withers

The Withers field included Capo Kane, the runaway winner of the one-turn Jerome Stakes (graded by me as a C-) on Jan. 1, and Jerome runner-up Eagle Orb. As expected, Capo Kane set the pace, with Eric Cancel keeping Risk Taking in a pocket while racing sixth in the early going. Approaching the far turn, Cancel found a seam and gradually began to gain on the leader, turning into the stretch less than three lengths behind, then ranging up alongside and passing the drifting out leader, Capo Kane, in the final furlong. Risk Taking drew off to win by 3 ¾ lengths, stopping the clock in 1:51.91 and getting an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, a big improvement from his maiden breaking 82 Beyer. Todd Pletcher-trained Overtook, a lumbering Curlin colt coming off a maiden win going one mile, was up for second after trailing early.

Neither the winner or the runner-up showed any early speed or quick acceleration, but both look like further distances would be no problem. There's probably a reason both Risk Taking and Overtook were left in New York for the winter rather than head to Florida where the waters are a little deeper for Triple Crown hopefuls.

From a pedigree standpoint, Risk Taking is by a proven stallion who has sired Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, the brilliant Songbird, and G1 Breeders' Cup Turf winner Talismanic. Risk Taking, bred by G. Watts Humphrey Jr., is out of the Distorted Humor mare Run a Risk and traces back to a very successful female family developed by Ogden Phipps, including fourth dam Con Game, who produced Seeking the Gold and Fast Play, and fifth dam Broadway, who produced Ruffian's sire Reviewer. Risk Taking was purchased on behalf of Seth Klarman's Klaravich Stables for $240,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Grade C

Feb. 6 Sam F. Davis Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs

Todd Pletcher-trained Known Agenda was made the 3-2 favorite in the field of 12 in this 1 1/16-mile race, but 3-1 second choice Candy Man Rocket got the job done in workmanlike fashion in his first time around two turns for trainer Bill Mott. The Candy Ride colt, ridden by Junior Alvarado and owned by Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, was one length the best over stablemate Nova Rags (by Union Rags), who had the benefit of a race over the track (winning the Pasco on Jan. 16 and getting a grade of D from me) but also making his two-turn debut.

The third-place finisher, Hidden Stash, gained 4 1/4 lengths on the winner in the final furlong, according to the Equibase chart, and visually did not appear to be accelerating as much as the winner was slowing down.

The final time of 1:44.30 came after a six-furlong clocking of 1:10.80 and mile split in 1:37.22, meaning a final sixteenth in 7.08 seconds and a final five-sixteenths in 33.50. The winner received a Beyer Speed Figure of 85, the same as his maiden win.

Candy Man Rocket and jockey Junior Alvarado winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes

My first thought after watching the Davis was that Bill Mott is not the kind of trainer who is going to try to pound a square peg into a round hole. Candy Man Rocket looked sensational sprinting to a 9 ¼-length victory at Gulfstream Park Jan. 9 in his second career start. He was good enough to win at 1 1/16 miles over a fairly weak field, but it's hard to make a case that he's going to get better as the races get longer. I would not be surprised to see this colt doing his best racing at seven furlongs to a mile in the spring and summer.

From a pedigree standpoint, Candy Ride has been very successful at stud and was a classic-distance winner himself. Like Risk Taking, the real quality in Candy Man Rocket's female family is in the fourth generation where you find 1983 Broodmare of the Year Courtly Dee, dam of Althea and other stakes winners.

Grade C-

Feb. 6 San Vicente Stakes, seven furlongs, Santa Anita

Gary and Mary West's homebred Street Sense colt Concert Tour was favored at 2-5 but was all out to get by Bob Baffert stablemate Freedom Fighter (by Violence) to take down the winner's share of the $200,000 purse.  The latter, away at 5-1 odds, set the early pace in a five-horse field, dueled with the quick California-bred gelding The Chosen Vron, then forgot to read the odds board as he continued to roll down the stretch, not giving way to Concert Tour until the very end, beaten a half length. That was Freedom Fighter's first start since winning his debut at Del Mar Aug. 1 at 1-2 odds, prevailing by a head in a five-furlong tilt.

Concert Tour (outside) overtakes Freedom Fighter in deep stretch to win the San Vicente

The winner also won his debut on Jan. 15 at even money, earning an 88 Beyer Speed Figure (compared to Freedom Fighter's 79 last year).

Baffert has won this race 11 times since Silver Charm's victory in 1997 and said after Concert Tour's victory that he likes using it as a progression for horses like Nadal, the 2020 winner who then stretched out to two turns, taking both the G2 Rebel and a division of the G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Don't be surprised to see Concert Tour try a similar path, as Baffert's No. 1 Derby prospect, Life Is Good, will remain at Santa Anita to contest the G2 San Felipe Stakes on March 6.

Sire Street Sense was precocious enough to win the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at two and won four of eight starts at three, including the Kentucky Derby and G1 Travers at 1 ¼ miles. Concert Tour's dam, Purse Strings (by Tapit), wasn't the most successful racemare, not breaking her maiden until her 12^th career start and never racing again, but she appears to have produced a good one in Concert Tour.

Grade B

Coming up this Presidents' Day weekend are the G2 Risen Star from Fair Grounds on Saturday and Monday's G3 Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn.

Previously:

Feb 2 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan 26 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 18 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

The post Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: No Risk, No Reward appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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“It was gratifying to see both horses pass the two-turn test,” said Mott, who sent his son Riley Mott to Oldsmar from south Florida for saddling duties. “They both ran big races and it looked like they were strong at the finish. They came out of the race well, so I think both horses would be possible for the (Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby).”

The March 6 card will feature five stakes, four graded, worth a total of $1-million in purse money. The other stakes include the Grade 2, $225,000 Hillsborough Stakes for older fillies and mares on the turf; the Grade 3, $200,000 Florida Oaks for 3-year-old fillies on the turf; the Grade 3, $100,000 Challenger Stakes for horses 4-years-old-and-upward on the main track; and the $75,000 Columbia Stakes for 3-year-olds on the turf.

The victory by Candy Man Rocket was the first for Mott, jockey Junior Alvarado and owner Frank Fletcher Racing Operations in the Sam F. Davis. Alvarado also won Saturday's Grade 3, $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes on the turf with 4-year-old gelding Get Smokin, owned by Mary Abeel Sullivan Revocable Trust and trained by Thomas Bush.

Alvarado and Mott teamed to finish second with 4-year-old filly New York Girl in the Grade 3, $175,000 Lambholm South Endeavour, won by Counterparty Risk.

Mott said he would prefer Candy Man Rocket and Nova Rags not square off again in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, run at the identical mile-and-a-sixteenth distance of the Sam F. Davis.

“It would be nice to run one of them there, knowing they both like the track, but maybe we will try to split them up next time,” he said.

Hidden Stash, who rallied for third, also looks like a good candidate for the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby.

Candy Man Rocket came into the Sam F. Davis off a 9 ¼-length, 6-furlong maiden special weight score on Jan. 9 at Gulfstream Park, while Nova Rags was attempting to duplicate his victory here on Jan. 16 in the 7-furlong Pasco Stakes. The winner received 10 qualifying points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby,” while Nova Rags, bred and owned by Michael Shanley, earned 4 points.

The points increase dramatically for the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, with 50, 20, 10 and 5 awarded to the first four finishers.

Mott stressed that both horses still have much to prove before entertaining serious thoughts of making it to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve starting gate on May 1.

“I know everybody this time of year is thinking of the Triple Crown, but there is still a long road ahead for that,” said Mott, who finished 1-3 in the 2019 Run for the Roses with Country House (moved up via disqualification) and that year's Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby winner, Tacitus. “You just have to take things one step at a time.

“Put it this way: I think both horses earned their way into another prep race.”

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But Junior Alvarado, the jockey on Candy Man Rocket, wanted to wait a little longer to launch his move.

“I didn't really want to engage the horse up front (Boca Boy) or make any quick move too early. I just had to move a little bit, keep holding my position and wait as long as I could,” Alvarado said. “He doesn't have a real quick turn of foot, but he started grinding it out so I started picking it up and I was really pleased by the quarter pole turning for home.”

Then, when he requested more, Candy Man Rocket delivered.

“At the sixteenth pole when I switched my stick to the right hand and showed it to him to see what I had left, he put his head low and kept grinding his way there,” Alvarado said after posting a one-length victory over stablemate Nova Rags, ridden by Samy Camacho.

The Sam F. Davis was the centerpiece of a Festival Preview Day 41 Presented by Lambholm South card that set a Sam F. Davis Day handle record of $13,200,523, an increase of more than $2.1-million from last year. The total handle is the third-largest in track history. Three other stakes were contested, including two graded races on the turf, with total stakes purse money of $750,000.

Riley Mott, the son of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott and his father's assistant, had a good feeling Candy Man Rocket was going to earn the $120,000 Sam F. Davis winner's share when Alvarado turned him loose.

“He got into a real nice comfort zone down the backside and Junior let him out a notch going to the three-eighths-mile pole and at that point there wasn't a whole lot coming from behind,” the younger Mott said. “He hit the front a little bit early, which was concerning – he's still inexperienced and sometimes when they get to the front too early, they tend to wander – but Junior kept him to the task and he really ran on well and passed the two-turn test.”

Mott also saddled Nova Rags, who won the Pasco Stakes here on Jan. 16.

“He is a quality horse, and he sat a good trip too,” Mott said. “We weren't sure about the two turns, so to see him come back and pass the two-turn test and run so well to a good horse and his stablemate was pretty encouraging.”

Candy Man Rocket paid $8.20 to win as the second betting choice in the 12-horse field. His time for the mile-and-a-sixteenth on a fast dirt track was 1:44.30. He won by a length, with Nova Rags and Camacho holding on for second by a neck from Hidden Stash. Boca Boy finished fourth.

The top two were both racing around two turns for the first time.

Candy Man Rocket, a son of Candy Ride–Kenny Lane, by Forestry, is owned by Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. He is 2-for-3 in his career. The Sam F. Davis is a “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points race, with Candy Man Rocket taking away the top award of 10 points.

The 1-2 finish by the Mott charges puts the Grade 2 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby squarely in their sights, although Riley Mott said the March 6 race might come up a little quick for Nova Rags. Regardless, having options is what it's all about for 3-year-olds at this stage of the year.

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Michael Shanley's Nova Rags (Union Rags) makes a return trip to Tampa following his win in the seven-furlong Pasco S. last time out Jan. 16. The Bill Mott trainee, a maiden winner first-out at Belmont last October, was fourth in the Nov. 8 GIII Nashua S. in the finale of his two-race juvenile campaign.

Mott also saddles Candy Man Rocket (Candy Ride {Arg}) in the Davis. The dark bay colt romped to a 9 1/4-length maiden win going six furlongs at Gulfstream Park Jan. 9.

“Both of our horses have been training well, and we're anxiously awaiting the outcome to see if we have horses good enough to go on and come back for the [GII Lambholm South] Tampa Bay Derby [Mar. 6],” Mott said Friday from his South Florida base. “It's a big test for both horses, and we have no great expectations. Candy Man Rocket hasn't been beyond 6 1/2 furlongs and Nova Rags hasn't raced around two turns yet, so they need to be tested to find out how far they want to go.”

Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out a pair of runners in the Davis. St Elias Stables homebred Known Agenda (Curlin) makes his first start since finishing third in the GIII Remsen S. last December, while Donegal Racing's Millean (Blame) graduated versus $50,000 maiden claimers at Gulfstream Jan. 10.

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Only five of the 13 have ever run in stakes races. Of those, Nova Rags is one of two which are stakes winners, having won the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last month around one turn, not the two-turn trip like the Sam F. Davis. Boca Boy is another with a stakes win, that coming last September in the In Reality Stakes. He is returning from a four and one-half month layoff since that race.

Smiley Sobotka finished second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall around two-turns but is returning to the races following more than two months off and facing many who have run more recently. Known Agenda finished third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last December and is yet another coming into the race off a layoff. Runway Magic finished third in the Limehouse Stakes last month at Gulfstream Park, a one-turn race and rounds out those which have competed in stakes before today.

Then there is a trio of recent winners on dirt who could step up to the task. This trio includes local winner Ricochet, impressive nine length winner Candy Man Rocket and Hidden Stash, who is another coming back from more than three months off. Millean won his most recent race last month but in a maiden claiming race so appears a bit overmatched. Joe Man Joe and Lucky Law finished second and first, respectively, in their most recent starts. Both were around two-turns but were on turf so it remains to be seen if they can transfer that form to dirt and improve to be competitive in a stakes as well. Last Investment and also-eligible Tiz Tact Toe round out the field as horses who have yet to break their maidens in seven combined starts.

Candy Man Rocket gets slight preference among three main win contenders in this year's Sam F. Davis Stakes, although he has never raced around two turns and has only a maiden win to his credit. I think this colt has tremendous upside based on earning a field high 98 Equibase Speed Figure in his nine length maiden win last month sprinting at Gulfstream Park. Considering this will be only his third career start, Candy Man Rocket has every right to continue to improve and that means his opponents would have to improve doubly in order to beat him even if he simply repeats the effort. There is little doubt Candy Man Rocket can do just that around two-turns as a son of Candy Ride, whose has had 12 of his 34 foals win stakes races for three year olds over the last five years. Some of those are big names such as Vekoma and Gun Runner. Then there's the prowess his Hall-of-Fame trainer has in recognizing talent. Over the last five years, when trainer Bill Mott raises a horse off a maiden win to a stakes race, his charges have finished first or second in 10 of 20 tries. All those factors lead me to believe Candy Man Rocket can pull off the upset in this race.

Mott also saddles Nova Rags, one of just two stakes winners in the field. Nova Rags returned from two months off last month and won the Pasco Stakes at seven furlongs. Although the 85 is well behind the 98 figure his stablemate earned one week earlier, Nova Rags has every right to improve second off the layoff and around two turns. Sired by 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, Nova Rags is out of the Smart Strike mare Wishful Splendor, whose sons and daughters have won 17 of 73 dirt route races, including 2011 Indiana Oaks winner Juanita. To be ridden by Tampa Bay Downs leading jockey Sammy Camacho, Nova Rags can take a big step forward in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and toss his name into the ring as a top three year old on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Ricochet is a two-turn winner at Tampa, a claim none of the other 12 horses in this race can make. Stretched out to two-turns for the first time at the end of November, Ricochet opened up by two and one-half lengths in the stretch only to be nailed right on the wire by a head. Improving to a career-best 94 figure which is the second best in the field by far, Ricochet made short work of the field in December when winning by eight lengths. On a pattern for another step forward, if Candy Man Rocket does not improve as expected, Ricochet would be no surprise winning this race.

After that group of three, there are four more which deserve honorable mention – Hidden Stash, Known Agenda, Lucky Law and Smiley Sobotka, each having good reasons to consider them as contenders but each also with slight question marks. Hidden Stash improved to a career best 89 figure when last seen at the end of November, bringing his record around two-turns to a perfect two-for-two. However, coming back from two months off he would need to be in tip-top shape to pick up where he left off. Known Agenda won a nine furlong race in November, the second start of his career, earning an 86 figure in the process. He improved to 88 although a well-beaten third in the Remsen Stakes in December and if this was his second start off a layoff, not his first, I think he would be a top contender. Similarly, Smiley Sobotka improved nicely in his first route and second career start in October to win then finished second of nine in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (with a 90 figure) after opening up by a couple of lengths with an eighth of a mile to go. He's been working fast but there is always the concern about needing a race before running well enough to win around two turns off a layoff. Lucky Law stretched out to two turns off a runner-up effort and won nicely last month. Both races were on turf so he would need to transfer that form to dirt and improve off the 83 figure earned in that last start. However, trainer Patrick Biancone successfully transitioned horses to dirt on the Road to the Derby last year with both Ete Indien and Sole Volante.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Boca Boy (78), Joe Man Joe (89), Millean (84), Last Investment (81), Tiz Tact Toe (78) and Runway Magic (92).

Win Contenders, in probability order:
Candy Man Rocket
Nova Rags
Ricochet

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