In 2013, Normandy Invasion (Tapit) made his 3-year-old debut in the GII Risen Star S., having dropped a nose decision in Aqueduct's GII Remsen S. three months previously. Sent off the 3-2 favorite, the Fox Hill runner ran on nicely to finish fifth. Just two years ago, Zandon (Upstart)–also beaten by the barest margin in the Remsen–shipped up from Florida and also came with a stretch rally to round out the trifecta as a 7-2 chance.

'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) is very much cut from the same cloth as those two–long-striding colts who save their best for last–and with that in mind, Brown opted to send the $2.3-million Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale-topper from 2022 up to the Big Easy from the Sunshine State.

The rationale? The nine-furlong distance of the Risen Star combined with a stretch run of over two furlongs would suit his charge better than the oft speed-favoring surface at Gulfstream Park, not to mention its comparatively short run home. Sierra Leone–who had last year's Remsen in the bag until he didn't–ensured that the plan came together swimmingly Saturday, virtually clinching a berth in the GI Kentucky Derby with a half-length defeat of Track Phantom (Quality Road), earning 50 points in the process.

To succeed, Sierra Leone would have to overcome not only an 11-week absence, but also the race-fit Track Phantom, who entered the Risen Star undefeated in three runs around two turns, including the Dec. 23 Gun Runner S. and GIII Lecomte S. Jan. 20. The 3-1 second choice behind the 27-10 and first-time-blinkered Sierra Leone, Track Phantom was sent immediately to the front by Joel Rosario and set a modest tempo over a strip that began the program listed as sloppy and never appeared to dry out. Sierra Leone, ridden for the first time by Tyler Gaffalione, settled about four from the rear and at a distinct tactical disadvantage, as Track Phantom lobbed them along through fractions of :24.32 and :49.67.

Sierra Leone was in a good rhythm, but still behind midfield past six furlongs in 1:14.74, but when he was asked to pick up the bridle in earnest, the response was near-instantaneous. Fanned out extremely wide into the lane, Sierra Leone was forced to take some evasive action around a wayward Catching Freedom (Constitution) outside the eighth pole, but he was able to sustain the long run he'd been asked to make and gathered up Track Phantom in the waning strides to take it by a half-length.

“Given the track conditions and slow pace and that he hasn't run since the Remsen, I thought he showed a lot to run down a pretty good horse who was in form and fit and didn't have to ship,” said Brown. “I wasn't sure if he'd reel him in–not because we're not good enough–but that was a tall order. So this proved a lot to me today.”

Added Gaffalione: “The blinkers really helped him focus today. He broke alertly and we hoped going into this race there would be more speed. He got a comfortable trip up the backside and relaxed for me. When he took the lead in the stretch, I could feel beneath me he is only going to want to go longer after this. You always keep dreaming of the big races like the Derby and horses like this help you keep the dream alive.”

Zandon moved on to the GI Toyota Blue Grass–in which he duly obliged–as his final Derby prep, and the plan will be the same for Sierra Leone, Brown indicated.

Pedigree Notes:

Sierra Leone is one of 27 stakes winners and 20 graded winners from the first three crops to the races for Three Chimneys' Gun Runner and the daughters of the late Malibu Moon are now responsible for 82 SWs, 26 at the graded or group level.

Heavenly Love, victorious in the 2017 GI Darley Alcibiades S., is a daughter of Darling My Darling, a $300,000 Keeneland September purchase by John Oxley in 1998 who won the Doubledogdare S. and Raven Run S. in Lexington while also placing in the GI Frizette S. and GI Matron S. Darling My Darling is also the dam of 2016 GII Santa Ynez S. winner Forever Darling (Congrats), whose son Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) is arguably  top 3-year-old dirt horse in Japan and is scheduled to run in next weekend's G3 Saudi Derby for trainer Yoshito Yahagi. Sierra Leone's Grade I-winning third dam also produced Japanese Horse of the Year Zenno Rob Roy (Jpn) (Sunday Silence).

Heavenly Love foaled a colt by Nyquist in 2022 and produced a full-sister to Sierra Leone Feb. 11.

Saturday, Fair Grounds
RISEN STAR S.-GII, $400,000, Fair Grounds, 2-17, 3yo, 1 1/8m, 1:52.13, sy.
1–SIERRA LEONE, 122, c, 3, by Gun Runner
1st Dam: Heavenly Love (GISW, $346,200), by Malibu Moon
2nd Dam: Darling My Darling, by Deputy Minister
3rd Dam: Roamin Rachel, by Mining
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. 'TDN Rising
Star'. ($2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG). O-Mrs. John Magnier,
Michael B. Tabor, Derrick  Smith, Westerberg, Brook T. Smith
and Peter M. Brant; B-Debby M. Oxley (KY); T-Chad C. Brown;
J-Tyler Gaffalione. $240,000. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0,
$336,750. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus*
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Track Phantom, 122, c, 3, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into
Mischief. ($500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP). O-L and N Racing LLC,
Clark O. Brewster, Jerry Caroom and Breeze Easy, LLC;
B-Breeze Easy, LLC (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen. $80,000.
3–Catching Freedom, 122, c, 3, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by
Pioneerof the Nile. 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($575,000 Ylg
'22 KEESEP). O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm,
LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. $40,000.
Margins: HF, 1 1/4, 1 3/4. Odds: 2.70, 3.00, 5.70.
Also Ran: Resilience, Honor Marie, Awesome Ruta, Hall of Fame, Real Men Violin, Moonlight, Tizzy Indy, Cardinale, Bee Dancer.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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The same journey was made this week by the trainer of Alydar. John Veitch laid the ground for the greatest Triple Crown campaign of any horse that never won a Triple Crown race by giving him 10 starts as a juvenile. Curiously, however, trainers of the succeeding generation appear to have decided either that they have found a better way; or at least that the materials provided, since breeding became an almost exclusively commercial enterprise, are no longer equal to the same kind of treatment.

Trainers today map out the road to the Derby with two priorities: minimize gas consumption, and avoid traffic. That way, they feel, their charges can reach Churchill with a relatively full tank and pristine engine. But the fact is that you always feel able to drive a car more aggressively once it has taken a few bumps and scratches. And you also learn far more about its capacity and response if you have repeatedly had to accelerate or brake to get out of trouble, as compared with cruising along an open road and every six weeks overtaking a laboring truck while barely changing gear.

In the prevailing environment, then, we must give credit to the people at Fair Grounds for redressing the shortfall in conditioning by extending the distance of all three legs of their trials program. If horses can no longer get the kind of mental and physical foundation they once derived from sheer volume of racing, then at least they can have a little more aggregate. With a field of 14, moreover, the GII Risen Star S. is meanwhile guaranteed to steepen the learning curve.

(To listen to this article as a podcast, click the arrow above.)

Saturday will be only the fourth time the race has been run over this extra 1/16th, yet its last two winners have both gone on to finish second in the Derby. One, of course, was actually promoted to first place; while much the same was done for the other by voters at the recent Eclipse Awards.

To be fair, the Risen Star was already on a roll, having lately produced a GI Preakness winner, the phenomenal Gun Runner and the promising stallion Girvin. Between here and Oaklawn, then, you won't find many handicappers nowadays still reducing the quest for the Derby winner to the two dimensions of East and West Coasts. Paradoxically, however, I feel that a still better way to regenerate the Triple Crown trail lurks right at the other end of the spectrum.

Alydar started his Classic campaign over seven furlongs; so too, as it happens, did Afternoon Deelites. With Diana Firestone also among the week's obituaries, we might mention Honest Pleasure and Genuine Risk, who both resumed in sprints as well. That had long been standard procedure, for the old school, as a way of sharpening a horse without penetrating to a vulnerable margin of fitness.

I've often remarked on the dilution of the Derby since the willful exclusion of sprinters under the starting points system. Okay, so they finally managed a meltdown last year and so set up a historic aberration in every way. But otherwise the race has lately been dominated by those setting or sharing a pace shorn of raw sprint competition. And I do think that the Derby's status as the definitive test of the American Thoroughbred, identifying the kind of genes we should want to replicate, is suffering as a result.

Between trainers' dread of running horses at all, and the imperative to bank points when they actually do, we're ending up with the worst of both worlds. Remember that it was as recently as 2015 that Nyquist and Exaggerator cranked each other up over seven in the GII San Vicente S., in 1:20.7, and that didn't work out too badly on Derby day.

I really do think that loading a few points into the San Vicente and the GIII Swale S. would be a smart move by Churchill. Because it doesn't feel as though the model nowadays favored by trainers is working on too many levels. It certainly doesn't work for fans, who get a woefully condensed narrative and reduced engagement; it arguably doesn't help the horses, sent straight into the red zone when they can't be fully fit; and I'm not sure it's working for the Derby, either as a spectacle or as a signpost to genes that can carry meaningful speed.

In the meantime, aptitudes of more obvious pertinence to the Derby scenario will at least be examined in this crowd scene for the Risen Star. And wait, look at this: there's actually a horse in the field with eight starts to his name already. Determinedly (Cairo Prince) is followed here by the pair of Tapits he held off in an allowance last month, a performance rather too faintly praised because everyone had written a different script in advance. Actually this horse's own part keeps being rewritten, having started out on turf and apparently flirted with a return to sprinting. But maybe he can keep some of these flashier types honest, and help to measure the kind of talent Victory Formation (Tapwrit) will need to maintain his unbeaten record from a post out near Baton Rouge.

From a European perspective, it's always surprising that people should be so specific, almost dogmatic, about the optimality of dirt horses operating within so narrow a range. The way people talk, you would think that the poor creatures will drop clean off the edge of the world if venturing that crucial 1/16th too far.

That's why I like to see them given the chance to work on their all-around game, and develop different strengths. Because, if the oldest of Old Friends can be so susceptible even in the span of his years, then what limits might we be putting on the things they do in their prime?

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Away a breath slower than the rest, Epicenter quickly got his hooves beneath him and tugged his way up to the front under Joel Rosario. Bodock (Street Boss), a 63-1 shot, kept the pacesetter honest through early splits of :23.79 and :47.97 with Pappacap (Gun Runner) saving ground to Bodock's inside in third. Meanwhile favored 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy) bided his time back off the pace in sixth with GII Remsen S. runner-up Zandon (Upstart) sitting off his heels. Epicenter continued to lope along comfortably at the head of affairs, putting up three-quarters in 1:12.25. Rosario sat chilly in the saddle as Epicenter cruised clear with ease in the lane for a decisive victory. Smile Happy rallied for second with Zandon closing right behind him for third.

Fading to sixth in his seven-panel Churchill Downs unveiling in September, Epicenter returned with a good-looking graduation going a mile at that venue Nov. 13. Running away to a 6 1/2-length triumph in this venue's Gun Runner S. Dec. 26, he did most of the heavy lifting in the Lecomte S. last time Jan. 22, only to be headed by Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute) late.

“He did run a really big race today,” Rosario said. “That was really nice. He looked like he was enjoying what he was doing and put in a really nice race today. We'll see going forward how far he can go.”
“A little different than his last race in that every quarter was perfect,” owner Ron Winchell said. He looked nice and comfortable we were just hoping he would finish off the race and he did. He looked great.”

Pedigree Notes:
Epicenter is the fifth graded winner and one of 17 black-type scorers for his young sire Not This Time. He is also the 14th graded scorer and one of 30 black-type winners out of a daughter of Candy Ride (Arg), who was also the broodmare sire of GIII Fair Grounds H. winner Cavalry Charge (Honor Code). Westwind Farms purchased the winner's dam Silent Candy for $130,000 at the 2014 KEENOV sale carrying a foal by Scat Daddy. Her recent produce includes a juvenile colt by Always Dreaming and a yearling filly by Tapiture. She was bred back to Outwork.

Saturday, Fair Grounds
RISEN STAR S. PRESENTED BY LAMARQUE FORD-GII, $400,000, Fair Grounds, 2-19, 3yo, 1 1/8m, 1:49.03, ft.
1–EPICENTER, 122, c, 3, by Not This Time
               1st Dam: Silent Candy (SW & GSP, $182,208), by Candy Ride (Arg)
               2nd Dam: Silent Queen, by King of Kings (Ire)
               3rd Dam: Soundproof (Ire), by Ela-Mana-Mou (Ire)
1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($260,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP).
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Westwind Farms (KY);
T-Steven M. Asmussen; J-Joel Rosario. $240,000. Lifetime
Record: 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Werk Nick Rating: A++. Click for
the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Smile Happy, 122, c, 3, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by
Pleasant Tap. ($175,000 Wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 Ylg '20
FTKSEL). O-Lucky Seven Stable (Mackin); B-Moreau
Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY); T-Kenneth
McPeek. $80,000. 'TDN Rising Star'
3–Zandon, 122, c, 3, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative
Cause. ($170,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP). O-Jeff Drown; B-Brereton
Jones (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. $40,000.
Margins: 2 3/4, HF, HD. Odds: 3.50, 2.20, 3.80.
Also Ran: Pioneer of Medina, Tawny Port, Slow Down Andy, Trafalgar, Pappacap, Bodock, Russian Tank.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs, or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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“We went back and forth on whether to start out with him here,” Brown told DRF, referring to the G3 Holy Bull this Saturday at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla. “But we prefer the longer distance of the Risen Star, and it has more points.”

The Holy Bull is run at 1 1/16 miles, and offers 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby to the winner, while the Risen Star is held over 1 1/8 miles and offers 50 points.

Meanwhile, his Grade 1-winning stablemate Jack Christopher (Munnings) has not yet made it back to the work tab after being scratched from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and later undergoing surgery to repair a shin issue.

“He is back galloping, and we're happy about that, but we are certainly behind with him,” Brown told DRF. “We're just going to have to take it week to week with him. We are not going to rush the horse just to make the Derby. The owners are completely on board with that.”

Read more at the Daily Racing Form.

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“Fair Grounds Race Track is embedded in the history of New Orleans,” said Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots president Doug Shipley. “We have always been very proud to be part of such a great city and this year marks the 150th anniversary of our inaugural season. We are very excited to continue our growth and support of the Thoroughbred racing industry with our purse allocation and this year's diverse and dynamic stakes schedule. Having not only the best fans, but also the best horsemen and jockeys from all around the world provides an unforgettable experience of high caliber racing at The Fair Grounds.”

The Louisiana Derby Day card Mar. 26 will feature eight stakes worth a total of $2.525 million, including the 109th running of the $1-million GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. The Louisiana Derby is worth 100-40-20-10 points to the top four finishers and is the fourth and final local prep on the Road to the GI Kentucky Derby. The 54th running of the GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks offers 100-40-20-10 en route to the GI Longines Kentucky Oaks.

A pair of brand new 2-year-old stakes with Kentucky Derby and Oaks point implications (10-4-2-1) have been added to the Fair Grounds stakes schedule for the Dec. 26 Road to the Derby Kickoff Day card. The $100,000 Gun Runner S. will be contested at 1 1/16 miles and the $100,000 Untapable S. for fillies will be run over one mile and 70 yards.

On Jan. 22, the Road to the Derby Day features a pair of key 3-year-old events–the GIII Lecomte S. and the Silverbulletday S. The top four finishers in each race receive 10-4-2-1 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Oaks.

On Feb. 19, Louisiana Derby Preview Day features a pair of key 3-year-old stakes–the GII Risen Star S. and the GII Rachel Alexandra S. The top four finishers receive 50-20-10-5 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Oaks.

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“We call it a gag bit,” Cox explained Friday morning. “He's a strong horse to gallop, so it just kind of gives the rider a little bit more control. It slows him down a little bit, so that's the reason for using that. We use in on several of what we call 'tough horses,' horses that kind of want to over-train at times.”

Cox said the 3-year-old homebred for Juddmonte Farm has been wearing the bridle during morning training since at least January, but the colt breezes and races in the more traditional ring bit.

The sharp-looking Mandaloun has been training forwardly since his last race, a race Cox called “a clunker,” when he ran sixth as the heavy favorite in the G2 Louisiana Derby. Prior to that race, Mandaloun had finished third by a length in the G3 Lecomte, and won the G2 Risen Star by 1 1/4 lengths.

“He was training so well leading up to the Louisiana Derby, and he was the favorite; we thought he would perform well, and he just didn't,” said Cox. “He was a little flat in the race, but he bounced out of it in great order, so that's why we're here.

“He deserves the right to run as long as he's doing well, and he's doing fantastic… He's definitely the question mark in the field as to if he's going to show up. If he does, he's a contender. If he runs the Louisiana Derby race, he's not.”

Mandaloun gallops on Friday morning at Churchill Downs

The post Equipment Check: Mandaloun Gallops In Bit Designed For ‘Tough Horses’ appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Trained by Brad Cox, Mandaloun was the highly-touted 6-5 favorite in the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) but finished a disappointing sixth behind eventual winner Hot Rod Charlie. The Into Mischief colt worked outside of Louisiana-bred stakes winner Australasia through a moderate :25.40 opening quarter-mile fraction. The duo galloped out together through five furlongs in 1:02.60 and completed the work with a six-furlong time of 1:16.40, according to Churchill Downs clocker John Nichols.

“There really wasn't an excuse in the Louisiana Derby,” Cox said. “I hate to use the cliché of drawing a line through the race, but that is what we are doing. At the half-mile pole, he really didn't continue to put himself into the race and was out of gas. We had high hopes, obviously, that he would run better in that race. We talked it over with the folks from Juddmonte and if he continues to train well, we are going to pursue the Derby.”

Moments before Mandaloun's work, Cox's top $1.25 million Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) contender Travel Column breezed a half-mile in :48.60. She began the work with a :24.60 quarter-mile time and galloped out five furlongs in 1:02.

Other stars that recorded works Saturday morning at Churchill Downs included 2020 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Swiss Skydiver, who worked a half-mile in :48 under jockey Robby Albarado and undefeated Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) hero Aunt Pearl, who worked a half-mile in :48.60 under Geroux.

Training hours at Churchill Downs will switch Monday to the normal 5:30-10 a.m. (all times Eastern) with two renovation breaks from 7-7:30 a.m. and 8:30-9 a.m. Weather permitting, turf training is scheduled to begin on April 18 from 9:30-10 a.m. every Sunday and Tuesday.

Special 7:30-7:45 a.m. training for Oaks and Derby contenders will begin Saturday, April 17.

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“We are just doing what is best for the horse long term, because we could run him, but it would be risky,” Fincher said. “We need to stop him and give him time off because he such a good horse and has a bright future.”

Senor Buscador is a homebred for Joe Peacock, Jr. out of the top New Mexico-bred mare Rose's Desert, making him a half-brother to G3 winner Runaway Ghost. The colt broke his maiden at Remington Park on Nov. 6, circling the field with a big late run to win the 5 1/2-furlong sprint by 2 1 1/2 lengths. He immediately stepped up to win the Springboard Mile in similar fashion on Dec. 18, romping by 5 3/4 lengths.

Next out, Fincher sent Senor Buscador to the Fair Grounds for the G2 Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 13, but the colt could only manage fifth on the day. He had been targeting the G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn in two weeks' time, but will now be given time away from the races.

Read more at horseracing.net.

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“I think he ran a way better race than it looks on paper,” Fincher told drf.com. “He made a big burst in the turn. The way everything was playing it was death to him. Watching all day, nothing closed, really. And the pace wasn't fast to begin with. Everything was against him. When you've got a horse like him, things have to go your way.”

Options on the table for the Joe Peacock homebred include the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park on March 13 and the G1 Santa Anita Derby on April 3.

Read more at the Daily Racing Form.

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The weather-related rescheduling of Oaklawn's GIII Southwest S. to the final weekend in February will cause some havoc for downstream prep races. The GII Rebel S. on Mar. 13 will now have only a two-week spacing within the Oaklawn series and Southwest participants who figured to run back in the Mar. 20 GII Louisiana Derby also might balk at having just three weeks off between preps and then six weeks until the GI Kentucky Derby itself. But our sport has gotten quite used to unexpected schedule switches over the last year, so the caravan will roll on with everyone making the necessary adjustments. Now let's dive into the rankings:

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

We've waited 3 1/2 months, so another small extended layoff will only add to the anticipation for the Southwest S. showdown between GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ Essential Quality and Jackie's Warrior, the fourth-place 9-10 fave in that race. This 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' by Tapit won back-to-back Grade I routes over Keeneland's short-stretch 1 1/16 miles configuration last autumn. His GI Breeders' Futurity S. win was a confident display of professional pace pressing, and this gray Godolphin homebred's late-closing Juvenile score earned the top two-turn Beyer Speed Figure (95) by any 2-year-old in 2020. Has any Kentucky Derby winner ever broken his maiden on the previous year's Derby undercard? I doubt it but could not ascertain that's never happened (input welcomed from readers with deeper historical resources). Yet the pandemic-delayed Derby of 2020 could produce that very scenario, as Essential Quality broke his maiden on the Sept. 5 undercard of the rescheduled Run for the Roses. Another bit of trivia: Did you know that 30 consecutive grays have gone to post and lost the Derby since the last gray, Giacomo, roared home first at 50-1 in 2005?

2) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Among the current Top 12 contenders, the trait that sets apart 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River is his demonstrated ability over four lifetime races to fluidly reach a high cruising speed and to carry it comfortably up to a mile. He stalked and withstood serious pace pressure in two well-stocked MSW sprints over seven furlongs in New York to start his learning curve. Then he broke out with a 9 1/2-length maiden score in a one-turn Churchill mile (83 Beyer) after carving out demanding splits of :22.38 and :44.59. Caddo River cudgeled the Smarty Jones S. crew by 10 1/4 lengths on opening day at Oaklawn (92 Beyer), and trainer Brad Cox said last Thursday this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable remains on track for the GII Rebel S. “Probably going to miss a work [because of the spate of unseasonable icy weather in Hot Springs]. But his race is not until, really, the middle of next month, so I don't feel like we're in any trouble as far as missing a race or anything.”

3) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-2, $175,240.
Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27 or GI Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Greatest Honour was back on the Payson Park work tab Saturday, two weeks after his smashing late run in the GIII Holy Bull S. stamped him as the horse to beat in the Florida preps. In an under-wraps maintenance breeze for both sophomores, trainer Shug McGaughey worked him to the inside of the 2-for-3 Creed (Honor Code), and both were credited with the same :50.60 (29/58) half-mile clocking even though Creed pulsed ahead by a neck at the wire. This Courtlandt Farms homebred by Tapit isn't light on experience. He has five lifetime races (including two at 1 1/16 miles and a MSW at nine furlongs) and has never been out of the money, so there's no big push to get him ready for the Feb. 27 GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. if the Mar. 27 GI Florida Derby ends up being a better fit, timing-wise. One shining aspect of Greatest Honour's past-performance cut is that twice now as a 3-year-old he's won closing from well off the tailgate at 1 1/16 miles, which at Gulfstream is configuration that usually plays to the advantage of early speed because the start is close to the turn and the finish is at the sixteenth pole.

4) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good retained his 7-1 favored status among the 23 individually ranked horses in Derby Future Wager Pool 3 that closed on Sunday (the “all others” field was 3-1). The West Coast's top-ranked Triple Crown threat breezed five furlongs at Santa Anita in 1:00.80 (4/33) Monday in preparation for a scheduled start in the Mar. 6 GII San Felipe S. Trainer Bob Baffert had noted after a bullet move the previous week that this $525,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay is “starting to mature and fill out; he just floats over the ground.” The winning prep sequence of the GIII Sham S. and San Felipe is the same blueprint Baffert used last spring to get Authentic ready for the Kentucky Derby. But, of course, Authentic's non-traditional path to the Derby winner's circle also included the benefit of four additional months of seasoning because the pandemic rescheduled the Derby from May to September. Baffert has said that, like Authentic at this stage of his career, Life Is Good needs to relax and learn to leverage his main weapon (raw speed) in a manner that will be effective over 10 furlongs. Can this colt manage to figure that out before the first Saturday in May? A schedule that includes the San Felipe and (presumably) just one nine-furlong Grade I (Apr. 3 Santa Anita Derby or Apr. 10 Arkansas Derby) leaves little room for error.

5) JACKIE'S WARRIOR (c, Maclean's Music–Unicorn Girl, by
A. P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $95,000 ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 12.

The Essential Quality-Jackie's Warrior rematch will be the closest thing we've had to a real rivalry so far this season. Yes, they've only met once previously, but that Breeders' Cup clash amounted to the season championship and neither has raced since, so the Southwest S. takes on more gravitas. I'm prognosticating an edge to “Jackie” over the speed-leaning Oaklawn surface at 1 1/16 miles, but longer distances later could swing the advantage in “EQ's” direction. How have horses from last year's Juvenile fared in their next races? So far eight have started, but only Keepmeinmind (Laoban) and Rombauer (Twirling Candy) were next-out winners; both ran Beyers lower than what they had earned in the Juvenile. In fact, six of the eight Juvenile run-backs failed to increase their Beyers the next time they started, which is not a promising sign of that race's strength. This $95,000 KEESEP colt was 4-for-4 in one-turn races at age two, and his immediate pedigree is a fascinating study in length-of-career contrasts: Sire Maclean's Music (like Jackie, also trained by Steve Asmussen) wired a Santa Anita sprint in his debut by 7 1/4 lengths. He earned a 114 Beyer—the highest debut Beyer ever—yet never raced again after being retired over complications related to a fractured splint bone. Dam Unicorn Girl, conversely, was a robust starter-allowance stalwart who raced 54 times with a 19-7-8 record over seven seasons on the mid-Atlantic circuit.

6) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Possible for GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

The Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (FOY) has been identified as a likely next-race target for 'Wowza!' maiden-breaker Prevalence, but trainer Brendan Walsh also noted the Godolphin homebred's team could call an audible and instead opt for a nine-furlong allowance/optional claimer two days earlier at Gulfstream as Plan B. This Medaglia d'Oro-sired 'TDN Rising Star' won his Jan. 23 debut by 8 1/2 geared-down lengths after sparring through a five-way fight for the lead in a “loaded” seven-furlong MSW (beating Justify's half-brother and a $1.05 million KEESEP buy). “I thought he was a good horse before he ran, but did I expect him to do what he did? Absolutely not, especially one of mine first time out,” Walsh said. “They generally improve, so I would like to think that this guy has some improvement in him. We won't get too carried away. We'll move on to the next one, and he'll be given plenty of chances to prove himself as we go forward … If we go to the FOY or the allowance race, he'll probably [work] Friday or Saturday and that should set him up right.”

7) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-1, $351,252.
Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: Possible for GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 3rd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52.

Mandaloun was facing a make-or-break point in his Derby campaign Saturday when favored to win the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox had said pre-race he was not wild about running back so soon off a subpar showing in the Jan. 16 GIII Lecomte S., but he felt the need to “push him along a little more.” Cox then equipped this Into Mischief-sired Juddmonte homebred with a one-inch blinker cup for the first time and the result was not only a 1 1/4-length victory but a nine-point jump in Mandaloun's career-best Beyer to a 98. Mandaloun was three wide on both turns while stalking in third, and he wore down two duelers and the running-in-spots closer Proxy (Tapit) to register a workmanlike victory. “He's always been a little funny down the lane,” said jockey Florent Geroux, citing the blinkers as a help. “He's never given me his full potential. We had the same kind of trip we had in the Lecomte, but when I pushed on the gas, he responded right away. Last time I feel like he wasn't giving me his best. He was a little more focused.” Cox said post-race the GII Louisiana Derby “is definitely going to be in play.”

8) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-2-3-0, $187,700.
Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: Possible for GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 24.

It's difficult to get a true read on the one-two performances by Mandaloun and Proxy in the Risen Star S. because of the drying-out nature of the Fair Grounds track on Saturday. Quick times and big winning margins dominated speed-favoring races early in the day, but the track appeared to slow down and play more evenly to horses rating from farther back by the time the stakes races rolled around (overall there were five dirt wire winners, two pace pressers, two stalkers, and two closers). Proxy was a midpack fourth at the rail for most of his trip under new rider John Velazquez, then seemed to lose steam when nudged along seven-sixteenths out. But the colt sparked back to interest when Johnny V. swung him widest for the drive, and although this Tapit homebred for Godolphin only ran along in spots down the lane, he continued his four-race trend of upping his Beyer number every time out, clocking in with a career-top 97. “He's inching in the right direction,” said trainer Michael Stidham.

9) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

If current prep-race schedules hold (and they seem to change every few days lately thanks to Mother Nature), this $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt figures to be the last horse among the Top 12 to debut at age three if he goes in the GIII Gotham S. Mar. 6. Highly Motivated hasn't raced since winning the Nyquist S. on the Breeders' Cup undercard on Nov. 6, meaning he'll have a 121-day gap between starts. He set a track record for 6 1/2 furlongs in what later turned out to be a key race (three next-out winners), but that “record” designation has to be considered in the context of five other Keeneland main-track records also being established on a speed-centric surface; plus Keeneland's small sample of main-track records only dates to the autumn of 2014, when synthetic got changed back to dirt. Assuming Highly Motivated runs well enough in his next prep to remain on the Derby trail, he's still going to be challenged by having only one (likely) true route race under his belt by the time May 1 arrives, because the Gotham is a one-turn mile.

10) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $105,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Sham S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

As the least expensive Top 12 candidate ($1,000 OBSWIN, $35,000 OBSOPN), this Protonico colt out of a Brilliant Speed mare has earned underdog rooting status for the tenacious way he took pressure on the lead through swift fractions in the GIII Lewis S., then never let another horse get by him in a three-way, length-of-stretch fight that had him a neck in front at the wire. Private clocker and bloodstock agent Gary Young, who purchased the Florida-bred for owner Amr Zedan, told the Santa Anita notes team that Medina Sprit “was OK, but he wasn't going to be the sales topper or anything … He had worked three-eighths in :33 flat which was decent time, but he had a nice rhythm and a stride like a route horse.” Young added that prior to the colt's debut win at Los Alamitos in December, he was “outworking more expensive and better-bred horses and definitely holding his own.” Young said Medina Spirit's connections are still mulling whether to plot a one- or two-prep race plan to get to the Derby, but he also emphasized that the colt is likely more effective chasing a target (like in his Sham S. second behind Life Is Good) rather than setting the pace like he did in the Lewis.

11) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban–Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity,
3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 18.

Keepmeinmind was entered but scratched out of the Risen Star S. three days prior to last Saturday's Fair Grounds race, but trainer Robertino Diodoro's desire to “run him out of his own stall” at Oaklawn has yet to come to fruition because the date of the Southwest has now been moved three times. This is an off-the-pace specialist (and a grandson of stay-all-day Victory Gallop) who might not fire his best shot going 1 1/16 miles over a speed-friendly surface like Oaklawn's, but he bears watching for the day down the road when he can more comfortably uncoil over a longer distance–ideally with several early-pace types setting up the fractions to his advantage.

12) CANDY MAN ROCKET (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Kenny Lane, by Forestry)
O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc; B-R S Evans (KY). T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $144,824.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Candy Man Rocket's 85-Beyer win in the GIII Davis S. Feb. 6 represented a decent step up for a colt who had just broken his maiden in start number two and had never faced winners nor raced around two turns. But the fact that he's trained by the very patient but realistic Bill Mott is what truly edges him into this week's Top 12, because Mott doesn't bother with the Derby trail if he doesn't believe his horses truly belong. This colt RNA'd for $190,000 (KEENOV) and $70,000 (KEESEP) prior to hammering for $250,000 (OBSAPR), and his connections acknowledged in a detailed TDN profile last week that Candy Man Rocket still needed seasoning when he debuted seventh at Churchill Nov. 22. But this colt sure was ready for prime time in start number two, a 9 1/4-length Gulfstream blowout, and in the Davis he got first run at a pacemaker who set legit splits. Mott said the GII Tampa Bay Derby is a possibility, although owner Frank Fletcher is an Arkansas native and has indicated he wouldn't mind seeing his top soph race at Oaklawn.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Concert Tour (Street Sense): 'TDN Rising Star' scored a 94-Beyer stalking win in the GII San Vicente, but this 2-5 fave had a bit more tussle than expected getting by stablemate Freedom Fighter (Violence) in the stretch.

Dream Shake (Twirling Candy): You don't see too many 20-1 winning firsters earning 'TDN Rising Star' status. Big confident march past leaders in 96 Beyer Santa Anita romp. But that race did feature a hot 3-5 firster who never fired, so the quality of that field is in question until we see more from this intriguing prospect.

Fire At Will (Declaration of War): GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf victor will make 2021 debut on dirt in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. “He won on [the main track] at Saratoga, even though it was muddy and against a short field,” trainer Mike Maker said.

Freedom Fighter (Violence): Ran a better race than winning 2-5 stablemate Concert Tour when second in the San Vicente S Feb. 6. Fast from gate, took pace heat, wouldn't quit in stretch. Gotham S. at Aqueduct likely next.

Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow): Slips out of the Top 12 after so-so third in Risen Star. Trainer Steve Asmussen, however, believes third time off layoff will be the charm for this $525,000 KEESEP colt in the Louisiana Derby.

Risk Taking (Medaglia d'Oro): Advanced when ready off a comfortable midpack stalk to reel in tiring pacemaker in 89-Beyer GIII Withers over nine furlongs.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for February 17 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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