Even that lavish investor in the yearling market, Mike Repole, won the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile with a homebred. Except for a couple of European turf juveniles, the rest of the show was a parade of champions raised by “end users”: a couple apiece for Godolphin and Juddmonte, plus one each for the programs operated by Coolmore, Cheveley Park Stud and George Krikorian.

Now, to be fair, they all reached that coveted winner's enclosure with the help of stallions beyond most pockets, with Curlin the most radiant example. And, besides, we're obviously peering through a narrow and fairly random window on the overall state of the game.

That said, if this meeting is where we all want to end up, it would be very hard to look at this sample and conclude that the commercial market is functioning very effectively.

That won't bother most people, so long as they can keep eking out some kind of profit from a fiendishly precarious trade. But perhaps it's a useful context to remind ourselves of the fundamental equilibrium on which the whole market depends: namely, that you need to retain sufficient mystery for the little guy still to have a chance; but values meanwhile have to stand up enough for the big investors to feel as though they can get some kind of edge. Put it another way: if the sale-topper won the Derby every year, the whole business would collapse overnight; but if a Rich Strike won every year, well, the whole business would collapse overnight.

Anyway, the point is that every now and then the industry needs a 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) to come along and make sense of what, in his case, was the second highest price paid at an American yearling auction in 2022.

His first three dams are, respectively, a juvenile Grade I winner, a dual Grade I runner-up (also at two) and a Grade I sprint winner; and, as luck should have it, he belongs to the third crop of what has meanwhile proved the most phenomenal young sire of recent times. When you spend $2.3 million on a colt that has never had a saddle on his back, you're obviously wagering primarily on a potential stallion career. And, with those Twin Spires taking tangible shape on the horizon, the partners who placed this particular bet are still very much in the game.

Sierra Leone was bred by Debby M. Oxley from her homebred GI Darley Alcibiades S. winner Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon), whose dam Darling My Darling (Deputy Minister) had been bought by Oxley's husband John for $300,000 as a Keeneland September yearling in 1998.

Darling My Darling's own mother, GI Ballerina H. winner Roamin Rachel (Mining), was sold in the same ring that November, to Nobuo Tsunoda for $750,000–a price vindicated the following summer when Darling My Darling (her second foal) won on debut at Saratoga before consecutive runner-up finishes at Grade I level.

Roamin Rachel had been sold carrying a Storm Cat filly, who managed a single start, but has since produced three group winners in Japan; Roamin Rachel, for her part, was sent for her next cover to Sunday Silence, and came up with Japanese Horse of the Year Zenno Rob Roy (Jpn).

Heavenly Love's half-sister by Congrats, herself Grade II-placed, has meanwhile given the family tree additional Japanese luster through her son Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}), who is about to try to give the family a second consecutive weekend in the sophomore spotlight in the G3 Saudi Derby.

Even without that later boon to his page, then, everything was in place for Sierra Leone on paper. Heavenly Love herself admittedly proved unable to build on her juvenile success, albeit she did manage third in the GIII Regret S.; while her first foal by Uncle Mo did little more than retrieve the covering fee. Sierra Leone must have been a very different physical proposition, then, to be topping the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale.

It had been prescient of his breeders, of course, to persevere with Gun Runner at precisely the point most commercial breeders back off from exposure by a stallion's first runners on the track. The Three Chimneys top gun would take the customary trim in fee the following year, from his opening $70,000 to $50,000, but his numbers held up throughout: 156 mares kept the faith in 2020, leaving Sierra Leone among 120 live foals in his third crop. These also include the fillies who consolidated another stellar weekend for their sire by finishing second and third in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. and first and second in the Sunland Park Oaks.

We have long since got over any surprise that Gun Runner's first crop should have been so precocious, making him not just champion freshman but leading sire of 2-year-olds, despite himself having thrived with maturity. As a result, however, fewer people remarked how his second crop actually made precisely the kind of tepid start that might have been readily indulged in their predecessors. In fact, as juveniles they didn't muster a single stakes success between them. Four, however, proceeded to win graded stakes as sophomores last year.

Gun Runner's third crop tilted the balance back the other way. Of 45 entering the gate as juveniles last year, four won graded stakes–including Locked, already his seventh Grade I winner and himself about to resume the Derby trail.

Sierra Leone missed becoming the crop's fifth juvenile graded winner by just a nose, in the GII Remsen S., but has now emulated his sire by winning the GII Risen Star S. off a layoff. Whether his focus was aided by blinkers, or he's simply becoming more professional with experience, he saw the race out rather better than when worried out of the Remsen, despite that wide sweep for home and runner-up Track Phantom (Quality Road) having controlled the tempo at his leisure.

Track Phantom had cost $500,000 at Keeneland September, where the third Catching Freedom (Constitution) was similarly found in Book 1, for $575,000. Given that Catching Freedom looked like a horse still learning his trade, this proved a race to give fresh credibility to the yearling market. Perhaps we don't have to tear up those catalogues just yet.

'Beach'-Combers Share Godolphin Success

As already acknowledged, breed-to-race programs are only so dominant because they tend to match their patienc–such a rare commodity in the commercial sector–with similarly uncommon financial resources. But they still need discipline, and the fatalism to accept that the culls essential even to the most lavish operations will occasionally convert years of work and expense into an overnight dividend for somebody else.

The Godolphin team's delight over the success of 'TDN Rising Star' Tarifa (Bernardini) in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. is presumably tempered somewhat by the fact that they sold her young dam Kite Beach (Awesome Again), carrying a full sister, just nine months after she had delivered this first foal. Mind you, a good deal more regret is doubtless being experienced by the people who bought Kite Beach at the Keeneland November Sale for $100,000, because just weeks later they “flipped” her for $115,000 at Fasig-Tipton February. That must feel like a pretty marginal gain now.

Ultimately Kite Beach was bought by Calumet, who sold Tarifa's sister at Fasig-Tipton last July for $105,000. While that sale nearly cleared their investment in one hit, congratulations must in turn go to purchaser Matthew Davis. Both he and Calumet, with their different stakes in her success, must be watching Tarifa's rise with due excitement.

Because for Kite Beach to produce a talent like this, at the first attempt, revives a rather dormant branch of an extremely famous family tree. She's a daughter of Tizdubai (Cee's Tizzy)–whose own mother Cee's Song (Seattle Song) must be counted one of the most remarkable producers of modern times.

Tizdubai was bought for Sheikh Mohammed as a weanling by John Ferguson for $950,000 at the 2001 Keeneland November Sale, a price that reflected her brother Tiznow's second consecutive success in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic just days previously. Cee's Song and Cee's Tizzy had already produced his brother Budroyale to finish second in that race, besides winning multiple graded stakes; and Tizdubai herself would duly proceed to win the GII Sorrento S.

Cee's Song was herself sold at the same November Sale as Tizdubai, for $2.6 million, inevitably in foal to Cee's Tizzy. The resulting filly, Tizamazing, never made the track but later produced Classic winner Oxbow. Unfortunately, the new owners of Cee's Song evidently decided that she was doing all this despite Cee's Tizzy, and not because of him, and instead favored her with serial $500,000 dates with Storm Cat.

These did not work out so well. Meanwhile another of the Song–Tizzy crew, Tizso, was sold for $625,000 despite an unproductive track career, and then produced Paynter to win the GI Haskell S. (Tizso also produced a couple of seven-figure yearlings so it was disappointing, shall we say, to see her sent into the ring at the age of 25 and sold for $62,000).

Tarifa | Hodges Photography

Both Paynter and Oxbow were by Awesome Again, and it was resorting to that ageing patriarch for Tizdubai's 2016 cover that produced Kite Beach. By then Tizdubai had come to seem a disappointing producer, despite serial elite covers.

Kite Beach did nothing to improve matters, being unraced, while her siblings that did make it to the racetrack showed little. One Shamardal filly did win on debut in England, but ended up struggling in a low grade and was sold for 45,000gns. Her son by Pioneerof the Nile is Cabo Spirit, latterly a dual graded stakes winner on turf in California, but Tizdubai's overall record as a producer makes it easy to understand why Kite Beach should have been culled.

But Awesome Again has served the Deputy Minister brand very well, as a broodmare sire; and of course Tarifa is by an outstanding such influence in Bernardini. So you'd have to be optimistic for Tarifa's prospects in her next career, as Mr. Davis can be about her sister.

Remarkable to see, meanwhile, that Calumet's first choice for Kite Beach was Paynter's son Knicks Go. The resulting colt, now a yearling, is inbred to an exceptional degree: his dam is by Awesome Again out of Tizdubai, and his grandsire is by Awesome Again out of Tizdubai's full sister Tizso. Plenty of egg in that pudding!

Patience Pays On Both Sides For Stronghold

As just noted, Awesome Again has contributed to a cluster of successful broodmare sires under Deputy Minister (himself sire of Sierra Leone's second dam). And among others to do so is his own son Ghostzapper, most conspicuously as damsire of Justify.

We have also credited Ghostzapper as one of those few sires to get a commercial yearling into the winner's circle at the last Breeders' Cup. So his prowess as a distaff influence must now augur well for the lady in question, Goodnight Olive, in her maiden cover by Not This Time (who sired Up to the Mark from a Ghostzapper mare).

Ghostzapper has now turned 24 but continues to rebuke the (largely self-fulfilling) mistrust among some breeders regarding older sires. Over the years he has also paid for a lack of precocity in his stock but nonetheless accounted for perhaps the most brilliant juvenile of last summer in Rhyme Schemes, unfortunately sidelined since.

Last weekend another member of the same crop, Stronghold, won the GIII Sunland Derby, the 100th worldwide stakes winner for Ghostzapper. Either way, how well he has steadied the ship after enduring some wild tides early in his stud career. Launched at $200,000 after one of the definitive speed-carrying displays of the modern breed, Ghostzapper was slashed from $125,000 to $30,000 (and soon $20,000) in one go after his first juveniles blew out. It was a long road back, but he fully merits a fee that has settled at $75,000, with career ratios that make him a very similar sire to Uncle Mo.

Stronghold himself is another of those homebreds to advertise the merit of playing the long game. Eric and Sharon Waller bought his fourth dam after she was a $12,000 RNA at Barretts in January 1998, and from her bred Swiss Diva (Swiss Yodeler) to win her first three starts including the California Breeders' Champion S. by eight lengths. Swiss Diva's first foal (a filly by Henny Hughes) was unable to race because of injury, but she would redress that misfortune as dam of Spectator (Jimmy Creed), winner of the GII Sorrento S. and twice Grade I-placed.

Spectator has now given the Wallers a run at the Derby with Stronghold, who managed to elude Bob Baffert in New Mexico and so elevated himself to fourth in the points board. He had previously counted the Risen Star runner-up and fourth among his pursuers when breaking his maiden over the Churchill surface.

Little Legacy Is On The Money

Marvin “Junior” Little was a man I would have loved to interview. He evidently knew plenty about the “real” world–never finished school, served in the Navy and was set for a factory job until a steel strike intervened–but proved a special talent when finding his way into our magical little one. Eventually he worked his way up to become manager of Newstead Farm, Virginia, until presiding over its $47-million dispersal in 1985. This was crowned by the homebred star Miss Oceana, in foal to Northern Dancer, at what was then a record price of $7 million.

Moving back to his native Kentucky, Little showed no less flair in managing his own, rather more modest program, which notably produced champion Hansel. And while he was sadly lost in 2017, his legacy of horsemanship endures through his children Marilyn, Jeff and Teresa. For they are listed as co-breeders with William Lynn of Money Supply (Practical Joke), who continued his transformation for Joe Sharp in the GIII Mineshaft S.

This horse achieved a good yield as a yearling, selling to Klaravich Stable for $400,000, but last summer he had reached a point where Chad Brown dropped him into a $32,000 claimer at Saratoga. For his new barn, Money Supply is now on a streak of five, reaching a new peak in a race that has lately drawn attention to others thriving with maturity in Olympiad and Maxfield.

As his original cost indicates, Money Supply was bred for this kind of caliber–even though co-breeder Lynn signed a docket of just $30,000 for his dam Evita's Sister (Candy Ride {Arg}) (in foal to the young Into Mischief) at the Keeneland November Sale of 2013. She owed her name to full-sister Evita Argentina, who had won the GI La Brea S., while their dam was out of an unraced half-sister to Trippi.

A few seams of gold there, then, for Practical Joke to be mining. Albeit aided by conspicuous volume, the Ashford sire is clinging to the slipstream of Gun Runner more tenaciously than the rest of their intake, earning a further hike to $65,000 this year. Money Supply is already his fourth stakes winner of the year, and watch out for another of them, the flying Skelly, in the desert this weekend.

A $5,000 Sire Showing Elite Potential

Having long recommended the horse, I make no apology for highlighting the fact that something really does seem to be afoot with Preservationist. Last weekend the Fair Grounds maiden winner Antiquarian, incidentally a $250,000 yearling off a $10,000 cover, became his ninth scorer since the turn of the year. Among second-crop sires, only Audible (12) has more–and they have respectively had 52 and 28 starters.

Preservationist had the commercial odds stacked against him, as a son of Arch who had won his Grade I at the age of six, but he has a sensational shape to his pedigree, posing fourth dam Too Chic opposite his sire's third dam Courtly Dee. Even so, only a farm as enlightened as Airdrie would have given him an opportunity, and his books have been on a predictable slide since he mustered 102 mares for his debut season.

So he had to make his one chance count, and he appears to be doing just that. An interesting template is In a Jam, who took as many as eight starts to break his maiden but posted a big number when doing so and again when following up in allowance company. It looks like people with the patience to let a horse gain a little maturity and experience are going to be very well rewarded, and they can now get to Preservationist for just $5,000.

He even has a filly on the Kentucky Oaks trail, with Martha Washington S. winner Band of Gold heading to the GIII Honeybee S. on Saturday. Her late breeder, Airdrie's founder Brereton C. Jones, was synonymous with that Classic. But he was also celebrated for producing top-class stallions somewhat out of left field–and perhaps we're already seeing that legacy being extremely well-“preserved.”

Band of Gold | Coady

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Track Phantom (Quality Road) will look to continue his domination among the local 3-year-olds as he looks to remain unbeaten around two turns in trying to add to his victories in the Dec. 23 Gun Runner S. and a front-running success in the GIII Lecomte S. Jan. 20. The $500,000 Keeneland September grad is one of two in the race for three-time Risen Star winner Steve Asmussen.

“It was great to see him win the race against a talented field, but especially with going as fast as they did early and showing enough quality to still respond,” the Hall of Famer commented. “I think the Lecomte was as easy on him as you could have wanted it to be, with him still getting something out of it.”

Joel Rosario will likely get after Track Phantom again from gate 11, but it was Asmussen's other winner on the Lecomte undercard who achieved the faster figure. Hall of Fame (Gun Runner) was trying a route of ground for the first time that afternoon and looked sensational doing it. His final time was 0.46 quicker than the Lecomte while his 94 Beyer was four points superior to Track Phantom en route to earning 'TDN Rising Star' honors.

“He was ridden much more aggressively (in his maiden win) because he's playing a little catch up on a horse like Track Phantom, but the ability is there,” Asmussen said of the $1.4-million Fasig-Tipton Saratoga graduate.

Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) topped the Saratoga Sale on a bid of $2.3 million and came running late to graduate by 1 1/4 lengths at first asking at Aqueduct Nov. 4, also earning the 'Rising Star' designation. When last seen, the dark bay rallied from last to lead into the final furlong of the GII Remsen S. Dec. 2, only to be outbattled to the wire by Dornoch (Good Magic).

“He was the only horse that day that made up any ground and that's an important thing to note,” trainer Chad Brown told Bill Finley earlier this week. “He had every chance to win. I was pleased with the effort, though disappointed by the outcome.”

Brad Cox has won the Risen Star three times in the last four years, including Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) last winter. Albaugh Family Stables' Catching Freedom (Constitution) flies the flag for the barn after posting a 2 1/2-length victory in the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park Jan. 1.

“We're going to need to improve off the Smarty Jones,” Cox said. “Physically he looks great. He's had a good bit of time between races, he shipped back here and is moving well, so we'll see if he's up for it.”

Rachel Alexandra A Key Oaks Prep

The sophomore fillies' counterpart to the Risen Star is named in honor of the romping winner of the 2009 GI Kentucky Oaks and has been an exceptionally productive steppingstone to the first Friday in May. Dating back to 2014, no fewer than four winners of the Rachel Alexandra have gone on to success at Churchill Downs, including 'TDN Rising Star' Pretty Mischievous (Into Mischief) last year.

Brad Cox saddled Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) to take the 2018 Rachel Alexandra and Kentucky Oaks, and the stable relies upon Alpine Princess (Classic Empire) in this spot. Beaten a long way from home when seventh in the GI Darley Alcibiades S. last October, the bay has since won two straight, both around two turns, including a two-length score over West Omaha (Omaha Beach) in the local Untapable S. Dec. 30. The latter flattered the form with a five-length romp over Perfect Shot (Gun Runner) in the Jan. 20 Silverbulletday S.

“She's always been a pretty good workhorse,” Cox said. “That's how she came to us back in the spring. She likes the track here. It's a step up. We'll give her another opportunity at the graded stakes level and hopefully she can get it done.”

'TDN Rising Star' V V's Dream (Mitole) lived up to that honor with a dominating victory in the GIII Pocahontas S. last September and a runner-up effort in the Alcibiades, but connections elected to pass the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She was never truly a factor when beaten 9 1/2 lengths into third as the heavy favorite in the Oct. 29 Rags To Riches S., but her trainer has not lost faith in her.

“We're really excited,” Ken McPeek said. “She's been working super. She's as strong as ever right now. [Assistant trainer] Greg Geier has got her here in good order. She's really a high-level filly, and I'd love to think this is just one stepping stone to getting her to the [Kentucky] Oaks.”

With Florent Geroux committed to Alpine Princess, fellow Frenchman Flavien Prat takes over for Cox on the rail-drawn 'Rising Star' Tarifa (Bernardini). A disappointing second in Churchill allowance company behind next-out SW Denim and Pearls (Into Mischief), the Godophin homebred set the record straight with a solid victory in her two-turn debut on the Lecomte undercard.

Stronghold Rates The Marquee In Sunland Derby

A little more than two weeks after opting out of what turned out to be a one-horse race in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita, Stronghold (Ghostzapper) ships into New Mexico to tackle Sunday's $800,000 GIII Sunland Derby for trainer Phil D'Amato. A second-out maiden winner over Churchill's one-turn mile, the homebred got a good look at the hind end of 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos (Nyquist) when a distant second in the GIII Bob Hope S. at Del Mar last November and was forced to settle for second in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity in his juvenile finale Dec. 16. Antonio Fresu flies in from California for the ride.

Informed Patriot (Hard Spun) has only a maiden win to his credit from five starts, but has acquitted himself well in stakes company, finishing third in the GIII Street Sense S. Oct. 29 before filling the same spot in the Smarty Jones.

Lucky Jeremy (Lookin At Lucky) won his maiden in a restricted event going a mile on the Street Sense undercard and came away late to best Alotluck (Sir Prancealot {Ire}) by two lengths in the local Riley Allison Derby Jan. 19. It was a large expanse back to Surroundedbyangels (Smiling Tiger) that afternoon.

The Sunland Derby is also a Derby points race, with 20 points going to the winner.

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So far as the Rebel, in which he will start Verifying (Justify) and Giant Mischief (Into Mischief), Cox is optimistic he can pick up another major win on the road to the Derby.

“I think that Verifying is a very good horse,” he said. “The last time out at Oaklawn, he showed the ability to set close to the pace. I think the fractions [in the Rebel] will be similar, maybe even quicker. I don't expect to necessarily be on the lead but somewhat forwardly placed in a good stalking position. If he runs as well as he's training, I think he's going to be right there. He's a good colt. Giant Mischief is also a very good colt. I thought he ran a winning race at Remington [in the Springboard Mile], but, obviously, just didn't get away well. He made a big middle move and then kind of flattened out. This was by design to give him a little time after that race. He had three good runs at two, three positive races. And I thought he showed in his Remington race that he could stretch out. We're looking forward to getting him started at three.”

Like most trainers with top horses and clients, winning the Derby has become a focal point for Cox, who said he's living a dream with this many good horses.

“This has been my dream for a long, long time, to get into this position, acquire good colts from top outfits, top breeders, top owners throughout the country,” he said. “These horses, you need to have a lot of them to be on this stage. That we have so many at this point just proves that we've got a really, really good program. It's a team effort and it's years and years of training young horses and being able to stop on them when they need to be stopped on and then having them ready to go in the fall of their two-year-old year or to begin their three-year-old season to try to make that push for the Kentucky Derby because it is very, very demanding.”

Officially, Cox has won the Kentucky Derby. The Cox-trained Mandaloun (Into Mischief) was awarded the win in 2021 after Medina Spirit (Protonico) was disqualified due to a medication overage. But Cox said he doesn't really feel like he's won the race and wants to win it by sending out the best horse.

“It hasn't felt like winning the Kentucky Derby,” he said. “If you're awarded the race how do you explain that to people? I have to say, 'Oh, yeah, I've won it, but my horse didn't cross the wire first.' If I met a stranger and they didn't know much about horse racing, I'd have to explain how I won the Derby. I definitely don't feel that we've won the Kentucky Derby. We know the Kentucky Derby is not the richest race run in America, but I think it is without a doubt the most prestigious. All the eyes are on racing that day with the telecast, the crowd and everything. And it's the thrill of victory, bottom line. I haven't experienced that thrill and I look forward to it someday.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, XBTV, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders and West Point Thoroughbreds, Randy Moss, Zoe Cadman and Bill Finley reviewed last week's races at the Fair Grounds, including the Risen Star and the disappointing effort by Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. Steve Asmussen's 10,000th win was also discussed with Finley predicting that Asmussen is setting records that will never be broken. To preview the G1 Saudi Cup, Cadman caught up with jockeys Mike Smith and Frankie Dettori in a new segment on the podcast, 1/ST things 1/ST at Santa Anita.

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Bred at Mike, Brent and Kevin Harrises' Westwind Farms in Bowling Green, Kentucky, Epicenter was hammered down to the Winchell team for $260,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September sale and was ultimately turned over to the operation's Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. A maiden winner at second asking going the one-turn mile at Churchill Downs, the bay romped by 6 1/2 lengths to become a stakes winner for the first time in the Gun Runner S. at the Fair Grounds last December before dropping a narrow decision when making his graded stakes debut in the GIII Lecomte S. An all-the-way winner of the GII Risen Star S. in February, Epicenter showed a new dimension in the GII Louisiana Derby, settling a bit further off the pace before quickening home to score by 2 1/2 lengths.

Epicenter's winter efforts made him the 4.10-1 favorite for the GI Kentucky Derby and he raced better than midfield, surged to the lead at the furlong grounds and was outfinished by Rich Strike (Keen Ice). He was similarly unlucky to not win the GI Preakness S., finishing runner-up to recent Coolmore addition Early Voting (Gun Runner) after a slow start and some upper-stretch traffic, but he atoned for those defeats at Saratoga over the summer with some authority.

Epicenter was a romping winner of the GII Jim Dandy S., besting Grade I winner Zandon (Upstart), and, at even-money, the GI Runhappy Travers S., where dual GISW Cyberknife (Gun Runner) was left some 5 1/4 lengths behind. His Beyer Speed Figure of 112 was the highest of any of his generation on dirt this year. Epicenter, who was pulled up when the second pick to Flightline (Tapit) in the GI Longines Breeders' Cup Classic and is recovering nicely from his injuries, retires with a record of 6-3-0 from 11 starts and earnings of $2,940,639.

“Epicenter was solid all year and the Travers was the breakout performance he needed and deserved, and he did it in an emphatic way,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “He put everything together on a grand stage.”

“He was a brilliant horse whose best racing days were still in front of him,” said Ron Winchell who raced the colt. “Bred on the reverse of Gun Runner's Candy Ride/Giant's Causeway cross he's a hugely exciting stallion prospect.”

“Epicenter is the best son of Giant's Causeway's best sire son Not This Time and is out of a stakes winner by the sire of Gun Runner,” said Coolmore's Dermot Ryan. “His combination of speed and stamina made him a potent force and he's a very good-looking horse to boot. Breeders are going to love him.”

One of three top-level and one of nine graded winners for his boom stallion, Epicenter is the most accomplished foal from his stakes-winning and Grade III-placed dam, who fetched $625,000 carrying a full-sibling to Epicenter at this year's Keeneland November Sale. Westwind acquired Silent Candy for $130,000 in foal to Scat Daddy at KEENOV in 2014.

WATCH: Epicenter storms clear in the 2022 GI Runhappy Travers S.

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One who races to keep his spot as number 20 on the leaderboard is the hard-trying Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile), who is one of five runners with 40 points. A win here will jump the colt into 12th with 60. Opening his account with a pair of wins on the Turfway synthetic, Tawny Port closed to be fifth in his first try on dirt in the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds Feb. 19, which was one by Derby points leader Epicenter (Not This Time). Second to Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb) last out Apr. 2 in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. back on the synthetic at Turfway Park, Tawny Port will try to overcome a two-week turnaround as the 5-2 morning line favorite.

The formidable WinStar and Siena Farm partnership will send out two in hopes of landing points and a spot on the bubble: Major General (Constitution) and Strava (Into Mischief), who is also owner in partnership with Denny Crum. A $420,000 KEESEP buy, Major General followed a first-out score with a win in the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill in September. He adds blinkers for this event after a non-factor 10th in the GII Tampa Bay Derby Mar. 12. Also adding blinkers here, $825,000 KEENOV purchase Strava captured his debut sprinting at Keeneland in October and was second next out in the slop at Fair Grounds Jan. 15. Extended to two turns in NOLA a month later, the bay checked in third behind recent GI Arkansas Derby victor Cyberknife (Gun Runner).

D. Wayne Lukas saddles Ethereal Road (Quality Road), who is back in just a week after a tired seventh-place effort Apr. 9 in the local GI Toyota Blue Grass S.

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The first of the two to go through the ring Mar. 15 will be an Always Dreaming half-brother to GII Risen Star S. winner Epicenter (Not This Time). Consigned by Ciaran Dunne's Wavertree Stables as Hip 121, the bay is out of stakes winner and GSP Silent Candy (Candy Ride {Arg}).

The colt was purchased for just $25,000 at Keeneland September by former trainer Mike Pender, who has now shifted into a career as a bloodstock agent. After 25 years on the backside, Pender picked up his first group of three yearlings for a pinhooking partnership in 2020. One of those was GIII Pocahontas S. winner Hidden Connection (Connect), a $40,000 KEESEP buy turned $85,000 OBSOPN juvenile; and another was Reserve Currency (American Freedom), who brought the same price at KEESEP and summoned $375,000 at EASMAY.

“He was very athletic and had a two-turn pedigree,” Pender said of the colt, who is from the first crop of GI Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming. “I pulled him out multiple times and couldn't take my eyes off of him. He has enough speed to make him real dangerous from what I see watching him train at Wavertree. Physically, he is all you could want. I loved him in September and now he has developed that all-important swagger as well. He is a real stunner.”

About two months after the Keeneland September Sale, Epicenter earned his diploma with a decisive second-out score at Churchill Downs Nov. 13. He followed that with a 6 1/2-length drubbing of his rivals in the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds Dec. 26. Kicking off his sophomore season with a second in the GIII Lecomte S. in NOLA Jan. 22, the $260,000 KEESEP buy went wire-to-wire to take the Risen Star by 2 3/4 lengths. Epicenter tops the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 64 points and is being pointed at the Mar. 26 GII Louisiana Derby.

“It was great timing,” Pender said. “I told my clients I was buying them a racehorse. This way if the horse stubs his toe or something heading into the sale, we have that back up plan. Looks like we have a big shooter in this Always Dreaming colt. The fact he is a half to Epicenter is meaningful, but if you just watch him go, he screams two-turns. Like Epicenter, he is the real deal.”

Just four hips after Epicenter's half-brother goes through the ring at OBS March, a Mendelssohn half-sister (Hip 125) to recent GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. winner Simplification (Not This Time) is scheduled to sell. They are out of SP Simply Confection (Candy Ride {Arg}), who is a daughter of MSP Ballado's Halo (Saint Ballado). That mare is also responsible for the dam of MSW & MGSP Inflexibility (Scat Daddy), MSW & GSP Halo Again (Speightstown) and GSP Fundamental (Arch).

Bred in Florida by France and Irwin Weiner, Hip 125 was purchased by consignor Niall Brennan and a partner for $95,000 at the OBS January Sale under the name Democracy Bloodstock. She RNA'd for $190,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale and was withdrawn from Fasig's October Sale and pointed to this spot.

“I liked her straight off the bat as a short yearling,” Brennan said. “She was immature, but had a lovely frame to her, nice outlook and intelligent head. She looked like she would grow into something. Mendelssohn's first-crop had been selling very well as weanlings. He was a stallion with a lot of potential.”

The horseman continued, “She had a nice, young pedigree. I had a few of the foals under the second dam, including Inflexibility, and they were all black-type. [Hip 125] was the second foal out of this mare, the first being Simplification. She's a young, stakes-place Candy Ride mare. I thought she was great value. I was partial to the family and thought she was a pretty filly that might grow into something.”

A $50,000 RNA at KEENOV, Simplification graduated at second asking sprinting at Gulfstream in October. Third in an optional claimer going the same distance a month later, he captured the Mucho Macho Man S. on New Year's Day, just 24 days before his younger sister went through the ring at OBS January. Runner-up in the GIII Holy Bull S. Feb. 5, Simplification provided his half-sibling with an even bigger update ahead of this auction, rallying to a decisive victory in last Saturday's Fountain of Youth. He is currently number three on the Derby leaderboard with 54 points, the same number held by GII Rebel S. winner Un Ojo (Laoban), who earned the number two spot with higher earnings.

“It is great timing. He is a very nice horse,” Brennan said. “He had already won the Mucho Macho Man and the update was in the catalogue. He proved he was for real when he came back and ran so well. He is a very nice 3-year-old and he made an already nice pedigree even better.”

In addition to her strong female family, Hip 125 is from the first crop of $3-million KEESEP topper Mendelssohn, winner of the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and the G2 UAE Derby on dirt. He was also second in the GI Runhappy Travers S. The son of Scat Daddy is a half to future Hall of Famer Beholder and GISW and top sire Into Mischief.

“She's done very well,” Brennan said when asked how the filly has developed in her training. “She's an average-sized filly, looks a bit like her brother. She is very smooth, very intelligent. These Mendelssohns, the ones I have anyway, are very professional, very focused. They all show the same kind of consistency and class. They are all very good movers. She acts that way, very easy, a really classy filly. She has great action on the racetrack. She moves great on the dirt. All the Mendelssohns I have, I think they will go on either surface from the way they are training.”

The OBS March Sale takes place Mar. 15-16 with each session starting at 10:30 a.m.

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A $185,000 purchase out of the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearlings Showcase, Smile Happy was the recipient of an inside-out ride from Brian Hernandez, Jr. going two turns at Keeneland Oct. 29 and powered away to graduate by 5 1/2 lengths. No better than the third favorite in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. a month later, the bay was once again consigned to a wide run around the bend, but he surged past recent GIII Sam F. Davis S. hero Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) and finished with good energy to take it by 3 1/4 lengths. The form of the Jockey Club has also been further franked by the third-placed White Abarrio (Race Day), who won the GIII Holy Bull S. with a 97 Beyer; and Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute), a wide seventh in the Jockey Club who upset this year's GIII Lecomte S.

“I think this is a good first step for Smile Happy,” said trainer Ken McPeek. “He's doing super. He's done everything right. He's a very low-maintenance horse who makes our job easy. We're trying to keep him and [GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity winner] Rattle N Roll (Connect) separated, with Rattle N Roll pointing for the [Mar. 5 GII Fasig-Tipton] Fountain of Youth[S.]”

Zandon brushed the inside of the stall, but overcame that bit of trouble to break his maiden by 1 1/2 lengths Oct. 9 at Belmont and was the 1.35-1 favorite for the GII Remsen S. Dec. 4. Three wide the trip, he was confronted by Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) in upper stretch and had every reason to call it a day, but battled bravely inside and missed by just a nose after arguably being impeded by the eventual winner. He covered 46 more feet (about five lengths) in the process. The $170,000 Keeneland September acquisition ships in from South Florida, where he fired a bullet half-mile in :48 2/5 (1/41) Feb. 12 at Payson Park.

“He's got to get over the shipping, but the horse couldn't be training any better,” trainer Chad Brown said. “He's a very exciting prospect and I don't see any reason why he won't get up to a mile and quarter.”

Epicenter (Not This Time) set reasonable fractions in the Lecomte, but could not resist the center-track rally of Call Me Midnight and dropped a head decision. He was three-parts of a length clear of GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Pappacap (Gun Runner), who was unable to take advantage of another ideal trip and settled for third.

Bodock (Street Boss) was a debut winner at Indiana Grand Nov. 10 and will try two turns off a 1 1/4-length defeat of $825,000 KEENOV purchase Strava (Into Mischief) in a sloppy six-furlong allowance Jan. 15.

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Anyone with a sophomore of elite potential knows the highwire that axiomatically permits every Thoroughbred foal one opportunity, and one only, to contest the Kentucky Derby. If, with the approach of his third summer, he is not fit and well on the first Saturday in May, then fortune will never indulge him with a second chance. There might yet be greatness, a Travers or a Breeders' Cup. But there will be no Derby.

In 2020, however, the unprecedented (and arguably unnecessary) disordering of the Classic calendar offered some horses a reprieve even as it destroyed the fortunes of others. Nadal (Blame) and Charlatan (Speightstown) showed their readiness for the appointed hour, when the same track that is frozen this weekend salvaged an appropriate Grade I for sophomores on Derby day. Both colts, however, were sidelined by the time Churchill eventually staged a September Derby. In contrast, Maxfield (Street Sense) had appeared to be thrown a lifeline after a layoff that would have made a normal Derby very tight, if not impossible–only to be derailed by another setback in the summer.

Happily, Maxfield made a seamless resumption before Christmas to nourish hope the patience of all involved can be vindicated, and his full potential finally explored, by an uninterrupted campaign at four. Fitting, then, that he should be resuming Saturday in the GIII Mineshaft S.–a race honoring the 2003 Horse of the Year, who built with maturity on foundations laid so carefully in his European nursery.

Maxfield | Horsephotos

Among horsemen, after all, hope springs eternal. And while Maxfield provides a cautionary context, Godolphin certainly has some exciting young colts. Besides Essential Quality, there's the eye-watering Gulfstream maiden winner Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro); while in yesterday's edition colleague Steve Sherack highlighted the prospects, down the line, of Speaker's Corner (Street Sense). Closer to hand, meanwhile, the deferral of the champion's reappearance switches attention to the aptly named Proxy (Tapit).

The GII Risen Star S. pitches this colt into a rematch with the pair who sandwiched him not only on the GIII Lecomte S. podium, but more or less from the moment the gate opened. That was not so much a horserace as a procession, all three basically holding their positions throughout as Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) controlled a light pace. Seemingly Proxy's rider was intent on engaging Mandaloun (Into Mischief) in the stretch, which possibly helped the leader to hold out. Be that as it may, Proxy gets Johnny V. this time while stretching out to serve a pedigree lavishly seeded by Classic influences. As yet another string to the Tapit bow, alongside Essential Quality and Greatest Honour, Proxy is getting a solid grounding to help add mental maturity (has shied under pressure) to the palpable progress he is making in physical terms.

'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun | Coady

It remains to be seen whether things can play out quite so conveniently for Midnight Bourbon this time, while Mandaloun must excel not to get caught wide again from gate 11. He certainly has the kind of family that is now supporting his sire, freshly gilded by Authentic, as a bona fide Classic stallion. Indeed, beyond the mare who became agent of its transfer to Juddmonte (bred first three dams), there's an unbroken Whitney line going back to 1918!

The big story bubbling under this race, of course, is Senor Buscador (Mineshaft). Joe Peacock, Jr.'s homebred looks an explosive talent and could put a smile on many faces at Remington Park, in the weeks leading up to May 1, if banking 50 Derby points here. He's a half-brother to Runaway Ghost (Ghostzapper), whose GIII Sunland Derby a couple of years ago remains the solitary graded stakes win among 1,158 overall for Todd Fincher. Veteran racetrackers everywhere would be thrilled to see Fincher consoled for the way Runaway Ghost had to leave the Churchill trail with injury.

Senor Buscador | Dustin Orona

It's not just Sheikh Mohammed, then, who knows how precarious a trek these horses are trying to make. So far as Godolphin is concerned, however, I hope it's right to perceive a wholesome shift in the way their Derby quest is viewed. Whether through its owner or the media, there was always something a little too politicized about winning the race “from the desert.” The Sheikh would still be deservedly gratified to realize that dream, but it would be no less a consummation of his unprecedented Turf career to get the job done from an American barn.

Thunder Snow (Ire) (Helmet {Aus}), himself a G2 UAE Derby winner, subsequently confirmed himself as eligible a Derby runner as Godolphin has found–yet his deranged antics on breaking were a bewildering reminder that nobody has ever cracked this challenge until that garland is over your horse's withers.

Proxy | Hodges Photography

Suffice to say, for now, that the Sheikh must be delighted with the work of his Stateside team. Maybe none of these horses will reach a sufficient peak to seize the hour on May 1, but right now nobody can know that. Godolphin, remember, have not even had a dozen Derby runners. People who talk of “failure” or “frustration” are forgetting the exorbitant ratios involved, just to get any colt out of the global crop into the Derby gate. They also need to remember that the more difficult this man finds a challenge, the more he enjoys it; and the more he will persevere.

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“In the end, I feel better running him out of his own stall,” Diodoro said.

The bay colt, who was third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile before breaking his maiden in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 28, turned in his sixth breeze of the year Monday in Hot Springs, going a half-mile in :49.60 beneath jockey David Cohen.

“David did a great job again working him,” said Diodoro, Oaklawn's leading trainer last year. “A horse like him, as aggressive as he is, you get the wrong guy on him and all of sudden your nice, easy half-mile work could turn into :45, :46. Even with those other works, it's the same thing. He's a horse that you've definitely got to have the right guy on or you could really blow a work.”

The Southwest is also likely to attract champion Essential Quality (Tapit) and MGISW Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music).

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