“He looks good,” Abrego said. “Looks very happy.”

Timberlake, winner of last year's GI Champagne S. and fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, collected 50 qualifying points for the victory and has 66 overall to rank number one on the Kentucky Derby leader board released Saturday by Churchill Downs. The Rebel was his first victory around two turns.

“I'm very happy,” said Abrego, who saddled Timberlake with Cox in Saudi Arabia for Saturday's G1 Saudi Cup. “First time running as a 3-year-old. It's a good start for getting him to the Kentucky Derby.”

Timberlake is expected to ship back to Cox's Fair Grounds base Monday and his next start is still to be determined.

The Rebel victory continued Cox's domination of Oaklawn's Derby prep races. Since 2021, the trainer has won seven of the track's last 15 points races. He won Oaklawn's first 2024 Kentucky Derby points race, the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S., with Catching Freedom (Constitution).

“I love it,” Abrego said with a laugh. “Keep it going. Never stop.”

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When Timberlake (c, 3, Into Mischief–Pin Up {Ire}, by Lookin At Lucky) finished a somewhat rank, then flat, fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November, questions swirled about his ability to get two turns. Trainer Brad Cox brushed the questions aside and let the horse do the talking. A freshened Timberlake, making his first start of the year in Oaklawn's GII Rebel S. Saturday, captured the $1.3-million race by a resounding two lengths over Kenny McPeek trainees Common Defense (Karakontie {Jpn}) and Northern Flame (Flameaway). The Rebel offered points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale.

When the Rebel gates flew, Timberlake broke smoothly to tuck in nicely behind the speed in fourth. 'TDN Rising Star' Carbone (Mitole) led the way, with Northern Flame just behind and Woodcourt (Ransom the Moon) pressuring from third. Timberlake held his spot as Common Defense slipped through on the inside and Mena (Hard Spun) ranged up to his outside. Up front, Carbone notched the first quarter in :23.20 and the half in :47.67 as Timberlake sat loaded and patient a few lengths back. The winner swung wide on the turn, took several strides to swap to his correct lead, drifted out under a left-hand stick, and corrected in the lane. Jockey Cristian Torres stayed busy late, keeping Timberlake's mind on business, and the pair edged clear, holding a rail-rallying Common Defense at bay by two lengths.

Timberlake has done very little wrong in his eight-month career. A June debut at Ellis Park saw him break a step slow and finish several spots off the board behind Rhyme Schemes (Ghostzapper), who later won the GII Saratoga Special. A month later, Timberlake made good on the $350,000 WinStar Farm shelled out for him at the previous year's Keeneland September sale as he ran away by 9 1/4 lengths to win at seven furlongs and nab the 'TDN Rising Star' tag reserved for special prospects. A second in the GI Hopeful S. and that fourth in the Breeders' Cup were sandwiched around a daylight victory by the bay in the GI Champagne S.

The Rebel marked Timberlake's first start of the year; he had been ranked ninth on the most recent TDN Sophomore Top 12 going into the Rebel. He was the sole Grade I winner in Oaklawn's Saturday feature and also owned the highest speed figures with a pair of 93 Beyers.

Pedigree Notes:

Bred in Kentucky by St. Elias, Timberlake is one of 68 graded winners for Spendthrift's five-time leading sire Into Mischief, who also sports a gaudy 145 black-type winners worldwide. While Timberlake is the only Into Mischief stakes winner out of a Lookin At Lucky mare, he also has GSW Bye Bye out of a mare by Smart Strike, Lookin At Lucky's sire, and a great number of black-type winners hailing from the Mr. Prospector broodmare line. The latter includes 2020 Horse of the Year Authentic, who stands beside his sire at Spendthrift. Lookin At Lucky, who is not standing this Northern Hemisphere season but remained in Chile, has 11 stakes winners out of his daughters.

Pin Up (Ire), dam of Timberlake, won twice at marathon distances in England. Her dam, by Sadler's Wells, is a full-sister to Irish champions and G1SWs Yesterday (Ire) and Quarter Moon (Ire), as well as a half-sister to $5.2-million Fasig-Tipton broodmare Betterbetterbetter (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}). Pin Up produced a 2022 colt by Army Mule, who brought $30,000 from Tate Shaw at last October's Fasig-Tipton yearling sale, and a 2023 colt by Known Agenda.

Timberlake traces tail female to Mumtaz Mahal (GB) (The Tetrarch {GB}), who was known as the “Flying Filly,” and was one of the Aga Khan's foundation mares. Mumtaz Mahal, born in 1921 yet whose influence is still felt today, is Timberlake's 10th dam.

TIMBERLAKE wins the Rebel Stakes and earns 50 points on the Road to the #KyDerby! pic.twitter.com/wW0GizGE4G

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) February 24, 2024

Saturday, Oaklawn
REBEL S.-GII, $1,250,000, Oaklawn, 2-24, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:44.00, ft.
1–TIMBERLAKE, 119, c, 3, by Into Mischief
                1st Dam: Pin Up (Ire) (SP-Eng), by Lookin At Lucky
                2nd Dam: All My Loving (Ire), by Sadler's Wells
                3rd Dam: Jude (GB), by Darshaan (GB)
($350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP). 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm
LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox; J-Cristian A.
Torres. $618,750. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-0, $1,094,350.
Werk Nick Rating: A+++ *Triple Plus* Click for the
eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Common Defense, 117, c, 3, Karakontie (Jpn)–Allusion, by
Street Cry (Ire). 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE.
($9,000 RNA Wlg '21 KEENOV). O-David A. Bernsen, Tony &
Michael Holmes & Norevale Farm; B-Tony Holmes, Norevale
Farm & Union Dale (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. $206,250.
3–Northern Flame, 122, c, 3, Flameaway–Darling's Darling, by
Bernardini. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE.
($425,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG). O-Jack Oxley, Harold Lerner LLC,
AWC Stables & Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek); B-Debby
Oxley (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. $103,125.
Margins: 2, 3, 1. Odds: 0.80, 27.20, 15.20.
Also Ran: Woodcourt, Dimatic, Carbone, Just Steel, Next Level, Lagynos, Magic Grant, Mena, Tejon Pass. Scratched: Time for Truth. Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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William “Billy” Paytner, who heads the Ocean Reef syndicate, would not disclose the percentage that was purchased, but said that it was less than 50% and that Don't Tell My Wife will remain the principal owner.

“Although I split my time between Versailles and Key Largo, I'm a Louisville native, so I'm over the moon,” Paynter said. “Our stable has only been in racing for about three years and never in a million years did I think we could have a horse in the Derby in our first three years. I can't even imagine what might happen. I'm going to be a nervous wreck until they come out of the starting gate on Derby day. It's very exciting for myself, my family and all my partners. It gives me goose bumps just thinking about it.”

“We are thrilled that Billy and his partners at Ocean Reef Racing have joined us on this amazing ride with Confidence Game, and look forward to going on this exciting journey with them,” said Don't Tell My Wife's Kirk Godby. “It was just five years ago that we had My Boy Jack run in the Derby and it's truly incredible to be back again. All the credit goes to trainer Keith Desormeaux, though, who continues to prove his elite horsemanship in buying young horses and getting them to this level. I can't thank him enough.”

When it comes to the Derby, Confidence Game was flying under the radar until he pulled off the upset in the Rebel at 18-1. With James Graham aboard, he won by a length. The Ocean Reef team noticed the effort and was soon in touch with Godby.

“I knew Kirk from Fort Worth through some business connections when I went to SMU business school,” Paynter said. “We liked the Candy Ride side of his pedigree and that he's out of a Bernardini mare, Eblouissante. Eblouissante is a half-sister to Zenyatta. But it wasn't even a thought until the Rebel. That race weighed heavily on our decision. There were the wet conditions and how he won and galloped out. That was very impressive. They have a pretty good track record. This is their second Derby horse and they were in the Oaks last year [with Candy Raid]. I haven't gotten to know Keith Desormeaux yet, but I am looking forward to racing with him. He obviously has a good track record.”

Paynter said the stable has been trying to focus on buying more expensive horses, but having a horse in the Derby was not necessarily a goal.

“At the level we've been buying at, we thought getting to the Derby was a possibility, but it never crosses your mind until it actually happens,” he said. “To be honest, we didn't expect to have a Derby horse. This is one of those pinch yourself moments.”

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“I've owned horses out here in Oklahoma and I owned a stallion and some broodmares, but that's the first one that we ever went and picked out and paid some serious money for,” Garrett said of the purchase. “We just got really fortunate here in the last year. We sold our company and I got the opportunity to retire. So that was actually the first 2-year-old in training sale I had ever went to.”

Garrett credits Hartman with picking Two Eagles River out at OBS following the gelding's :10 flat work.

“Chris Hartman is our trainer and he's got a really good eye for athletes,” Garrett said. “So most of it had to do with him. We paid quite a bit of money for him if you want to look at his stallion's stud fee. But when you go out there, you have to buy the athlete standing in front of you, not just the sales catalogue.”

Garrett owns the dark bay in partnership with another Oklahoman, Dr. Michael Robinson, a relative newcomer to the racing game.

“[Robinson] and I both graduated from Sayre High School in Oklahoma, which happens to be the Sayre Eagles,” Garrett said. “His wife came up with the name of Two Eagles. And all of my horses' names have a 'river' in them somewhere. So that's where the name came from.”

Two Eagles River, who had been gelded as a yearling, showed promise right from the start of his time with Hartman.

“We knew he was special from his first two or three breezes,” Garrett said. “There weren't many horses in the barn that could keep up with him. He was working with Tejano Twist who is a stakes horse, so we knew he was pretty nice. We had to hold off on him for a couple of months for some maturity issues with his knees. We had to give him the time to mature. And he did. He is really sound.”

Once Two Eagles River made it to the races, he quickly justified Garrett's faith in him with a stylish debut victory going five furlongs at Churchill Downs last October. He was second, beaten just a neck by subsequent Smarty Jones S. winner Victory Formation (Tapwrit) in a six-furlong allowance in his second start and was just a head short of Frosted Departure (Frosted) when second in the six-furlong Renaissance S. at Oaklawn last December. Stretched out to a mile, he was third behind Verifying (Justify) in his sophomore debut in January.

All of those foes have since gone on to graded stakes competition, while Two Eagles River returned to the winner's circle with a wire-to-wire four-length victory in a one-mile allowance at Oaklawn Feb. 19 (video).

“We thought he would like the stretch out and going two turns,” Garrett said. “The first race before that that he went two turns, two of the horses in the Rebel were in there with him and he ran third. And he had run second to another horse in the Rebel, which was Frosted Departure when he got beat in the Renaissance S. by a nose.”

Garrett continued, “It was a short turnaround. We just had two weeks in between the races, but we've known sprinting wasn't where his wheelhouse was going to be. He's got a really long stride. His stride was two feet longer than the average stride in that Ocala sale. So we've known he has a big stride and would be a two-turn horse. We've just been taking our time to get him there so that he is comfortable with it.”

Asked where Two Eagles River might make his next start, Garrett said, “Couldn't tell you that. We are going to wait a week or two and get a work into him and see how he comes out of that. He came out of his race really good, Chris said. But what's next? That's Chris's decision. He knows the best places to put horses–he does a really good job with that. I know he comes from Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, all the way across the country. He has some old stomping grounds there at Sunland Park and they have a $700,000 prep race [Mar. 25 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks] at Turfway Park nowadays. So there are lots of options.”

Garrett admitted he is hoping a return trip to Oaklawn Park will be in the cards.

“If had my druthers, it would be the [Apr. 1 GI] Arkansas Derby, of course,” he said. “I love Oaklawn Park, but that will depend on Chris and the horse.”

Garrett was in Hot Springs for Two Eagles River's victory a week ago and he returned on a reconnaissance mission this past weekend to watch the GIII Rebel S.

“We were over there for the last race and I've just come from there this last weekend,” Garrett said. “I wanted to watch the Rebel to get an eye on our competition.”

Garrett has a lifelong love of horse racing thanks to his father.

“I was born the son of a horse trainer,” he said succinctly when asked how he first became involved in horse racing, adding with a laugh, “It just takes a little time to make enough money to buy one. That's easier said than done.”

Garrett has some seven horses currently in training, but his retirement plan includes more than just racing. He will be making his first attempt at pinhooking this year and has three 2-year-olds entered in the OBS March sale, which runs from Mar. 20-22.

Garrett's OBS March trio includes a colt by Bernardini (hip 54), who was purchased by agent Rusty Roberts for $110,000 at last year's Keeneland September sale; a colt by Midshipman (hip 190), who was purchased by Roberts on behalf of Garrett's Scattered Acres for $55,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton July sale; and a filly by Maximus Mischief (hip 199), who was purchased for $75,000 at Fasig July.

“We bought some yearlings that are going to be selling in Ocala in March,” Garrett said. “We've started doing that. And I bought some weanlings that are going to sell as yearlings. We are going to hope like heck that the sales part of it can support the racing part of it.”

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You can add him to a list that includes Exaggerator (Curlin), the $110,000 purchase who won the GI Preakness S. in 2016, and Texas Red (Afleet Alex), a $17,000 buy as a yearling at Keeneland September who won the 2014 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Then there's My Boy Jack (Creative Cause), a $20,000 purchase who won the GIII Southwest S. and earned $776,887, and Grade III winner Dalmore (Colonel John), who cost $47,000. Desormeaux bought Swipe (Birdstone) for $5,000. He earned $622,630.

How does he do it?

“The easiest way to explain it is that these horses have conformational flaws or maybe some issues on the X-rays that I can live with as a horseman but commercial sales people can't,” Desormeaux said. “All I know is that I am buying athletes. Pedigree comes second to me. Conformational issues are secondary to me. I am buying balanced, athletic horses who are conformationally correct according to my standards. I look for innate things that make me think the horse is an athlete, things that I associate with class. Those are things that are hard to explain. I know that sounds more complicated than it should, but there you go.”

The first thing Desormeaux noticed about Confidence Game was that the yearling was selling later on in the sale, listed as hip number 1462, despite a strong pedigree. Not only is he by Candy Ride, but the dam is Eblouissante (Bernadini), who is a half-sister to Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}). Desormeaux figured there had to be a flaw somewhere, but he preferred not to know what it was because he didn't want anything to interfere with his gut instincts that told him this was a horse worth buying.

“I do not know what the issue was,” he said. “The horse was late in the sale. I knew that, with his pedigree, he didn't belong that late in the sale. I assumed there was something on the X-rays. I judged him on his athleticism. It didn't matter to me what the X-rays said. I knew I had a nice horse. I did not even look at his X-rays. I did not call a vet. I did not call anyone. I bought him because I knew I was buying an athlete.”

It's a different approach, but it's working, and Desormeaux admits he gets a great deal of satisfaction in winning with horses that the deep-pocketed owners and their trainers didn't want.

“I'm basically doing this with horses other people believe didn't belong in their first string,” he said. “I know it's a strong word, but they are castoffs. I take a lot of pride in using horsemanship and developing the horses. It's not all me. We send them to April Mayberry in Florida and I have a hell of a crew at the track that does the grunt work. It all comes together to reach this goal. I take a lot of pride in it and that's mainly because we are buying horses off the radar.”

Having had so much success with bargain buys, what could Desormeaux do if an owner ever sent him to the sales and let him buy expensive horses? After so many years when no one would give him that chance, Desormeaux has found an owner in Ben Gase who is willing to spend good money. At last year's OBS Spring Sale, Gase and Desormeaux bought a Cairo Prince colt for $90,000, a Twirling Candy filly for $400,000 and a Bolt d'Oro filly for $650,000. They were back at it at the OBS June sale, buying a Munnings colt for $300,000. Gase is the founder and CEO of the shipping technology company R2 Logisticis.

“Has it been frustrating? No. But maybe if I was a little bit better at marketing myself or was more of a people person, I'd have those kinds of owners,” Desormeaux said. “But I do have a new guy, Ben Gase. He's letting me spend in that higher realm. I respect him for giving me a chance. I think we will see big things happening with this guy very soon. I've had to change my m.o. I wouldn't pay that kind of money for a horse without looking at the X-rays. I have too much sense for that.”

As for Confidence Game, he took a while to reward Desormeaux. He broke his maiden in his second career start, but followed that up with a fifth-place finish in the GIII Iroquois S. in which he never threatened. He turned a corner two starts later when winning a Churchill allowance and then ran third in the GIII Lecomte S. In the Rebel, he put it all together to win by a length at 18-1.

The GI Arkansas Derby could be next for him, but Desormeaux said he will also consider the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. and the GII Louisiana Derby. If he makes the Derby, he will be Desormeaux's fourth starter in the race. If there, he will meet horses from the biggest stables in the sport, horses that cost in the high six figures or, in the case of possible Derby favorite Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo), $2.3 million. But you can count on Confidence Game being up to the task. Desormeaux's horses, no matter what they cost, usually are.

Will Asmussen's Records Ever Be Broken?

Steve Asmussen entered Sunday's races with 10,006 career winners, a remarkable number that will only grow for some time to come. At age 57, Asmussen is a long way away from the end of his career and could eventually make it to win 15,000. That would take him staying active as a trainer until he is 72 while averaging 333 wins a year. Considering that he has averaged 419 wins a year since 2020, he might even soar well past 15,000.

Jerry Hollendorfer, who had only 47 wins last year, has the second most wins among active trainers with 7,759. He's not going to catch him and neither will anyone else training today. Even in the era of the super trainers, there's no one that operates the way Asmussen does. He wins at the highest levels of the sport yet still maintains strings at tracks like Sam Houston and Remington Park. Eighty-five of Asmussen's 382 wins last year came in claiming races.

In 2022, Asmussen made 2,155 starts, 358 more than Karl Broberg, who was second in the category. By way of comparison, Asmussen sent out more than twice as many starters in 2022 as did Todd Pletcher, who had only 10 wins during the year in claiming races.

There's no one else like Asmussen and that may always be the case. It's hard to imagine anyone new coming around who has his appetite for winning and will operate at five or six tracks at once, with stakes horses and with claimers.

But that's not what makes Asmussen virtually unpassable when it comes, not just to most career wins, but also to wins in a single year. With 650 wins in 2009, he also holds that record. For a large chunk of his career, Asmussen operated before foal crop numbers plummeted and so many tracks were forced to go to three and four-day weeks. In 2000, the first year in which Asmussen surpassed 200 wins on the year, there were 55,846 races run in the U.S. In 2009, his record year, there were 49,368. In 2021, the most recent years for which numbers are available, there were 33,567 races, a decline of nearly 40% since 2000.

Even Asmussen can't keep up with his numbers from the early 2000s. In the record year of 2009, he made 2,944 starts. With 2,155 in 2022, that's a drop off 26.8%.

They say records are meant to broken, a lesson reinforced recently in the NBA when Lebron James went past Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to become the leading scorer in the history of the league. But in racing there is no Lebron coming after Asmussen. When it comes to winning races there's Asmussen and no one else. His place in racing history seems secure.

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“He's happy,” Desormeaux said Sunday. “He looks a lot more calm and happy than he was in that damn [indoor] paddock.”

The Rebel victory propelled Confidence Game to the top of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 57 points.

Confidence Game shipped back to Desormeaux's Fair Grounds base Sunday afternoon, but could return to Oaklawn Park for the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 1.

“For sure, TBA–depending on how he returns and it will give us a couple of weeks to let him rest and see how he bounces back, but all options are open,” Desormeaux said of the colt's next start. “It could be in Arkansas, Louisiana, maybe even the Blue Grass, I don't know. Obviously, with our success here and the way we were treated, our first option is going to be the Arkansas Derby.”

A maiden winner at Churchill Downs last August, Confidence Game entered the Rebel off a third-place effort in the Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S.

Sent off at 18-1 in the Rebel, he was fifth through a demanding :46.17 half-mile before launching a four-wide move to the lead turning for home. Confidence Game opened a 1 1/2-length advantage in midstretch and held late-running Red Route One (Gun Runner) safe in the final 100 yards.

“Everything worked in his favor,” Desormeaux said. “I was telling the ownership group last night that pace, I've watched races there for two days, and that pace was about two seconds faster than anything I had seen. So, it set up great for him. I don't know how many people buy into this, but as far as the pedigree was concerned, as far as propensity for the off track, he had the highest number. The off track probably helped us. Perfect trip. Here we are.”

Trainer Brad Cox was looking for his fifth win in the Rebel, but instead watched 3-2 favorite Verifying (Justify) and 2-1 second choice Giant Mischief (Into Mischief) finish fourth and sixth, respectively, after chasing the fast pace.

“I was hoping to learn a good bit from yesterday's race,” Cox said Sunday morning. “I'm not sure I learned as much as I was looking or hoping to. That would be the best way to sum that up. That's the honest to God way I looked at the race. I really thought I was going to find out something yesterday and I don't know what I found out.”

Verifying was making his first start since a powerful Jan. 14 one-mile allowance victory at Oaklawn, while the Rebel marked the 3-year-old debut of Giant Mischief, who concluded 2022 with a runner-up finish in the Remington Park Springboard Mile Dec. 17.

Verifying was bottled up turning for home under Florent Geroux in the Rebel and was beaten 5 1/4 lengths by Confidence Game. Giant Mischief was beaten 6 1/2 lengths.

“Verifying lost a lot of position from the quarter pole to the eighth pole,” Cox said. “He went from basically being fourth to eighth or ninth. You can't do that in these type of races with these good horses. In my eyes he remains on the Derby trail and is a contender. Giant Mischief was in contention turning for home. He hadn't raced in a while. He may have needed the race. I wouldn't say he's off the trail at all. We'll regroup with the team and come up with a plan here in the near future.”

Cox has six of the top 17 horses on the latest Kentucky Derby leaderboard released by Churchill Downs.

“We're going to be there,” Cox said. “I don't know with who.”

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1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is the legitimate kingpin atop the crop as we crest the 75-day mark until the Derby. But a two-race foundation–no matter how wowing those performances were–understandably still seems a touch precarious by conventional Derby-assessment standards.

After ransacking the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Jan. 28 in his 2023 coming-out party, this sales-topping son of Uncle Mo wasn't nominated to the next leg in the Oaklawn series, which is this Saturday's GII Rebel S. Until his connections disclose details, the date and place of Arabian Knight's next start remains the most sought-after secret on the Derby trail (both for fans who want to see him race and the connections of contenders who want to avoid him).

Last week's federal court ruling denying Bob Baffert an injunction to avoid a Churchill Downs ban on his Derby participation is already resulting in some movement of his sophomore contenders to other trainers. But that news, if or when it comes for Arabian Knight, shouldn't overshadow the fact that this classy colt has sky's-the-limit potential augmented by a confident demeanor and a blazing natural quickness that doesn't cross the line into being speed-crazy.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0,  $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte is five works into his training for the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S., and Saturday's five-eighths breeze at Palm Beach Downs was a bullet in 1:01.41 (1/10). For months, trainer Todd Pletcher has articulated a two-prep path to Louisville, with the second race expected to be either the GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland (site of Forte's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile triumph).

Leggy and athletic in the same manner as his sire, Violence, this 'TDN Rising Star' stands out because of his ability to carve out ideal tactical positioning to set up a powerful punch off the far turn, and Forte won three Grade I stakes last season from seven furlongs up to 1 1/16 miles.

Pletcher has twice trained a 2-year-old Eclipse Award-winning colt who won the Juvenile. How did they fare in their comebacks?

In January 2013, Shanghai Bobby ran second at even-money in his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream in the GIII Holy Bull S. In March 2011, Pletcher found a cushy winning spot for the returning Uncle Mo, who was 1-20 in the betting to beat four others in a non-graded $100,000 stakes at Gulfstream.

Regardless of what you think of Forte himself, be aware that historically, the Fountain of Youth has been a notorious trap for high-profile favorites. Although the chalk has won the last two editions, the public's choice has gone down in defeat in 12 of the last 16 runnings, including one demotion via disqualification.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

Two weeks to the day since his scintillating one-turn-mile allowance win at Gulfstream, this $1.3-million KEESEP colt returned to the worktab Saturday with an unhurried :50.93 half-mile breeze (27/33) at Palm Beach Downs.

While stablemate Forte, ranked above at No. 2, sports the more accomplished resume, this 'TDN Rising Star' is more of the “now” colt considering the two impressive scores he's racked up since Dec. 17.

His Beyer Speed Figures signal legitimacy with room for improvement, while cresting upward over three races (73-87-92), and Tapit Trice also rates highly from a “how he did it” visual perspective that emphasizes his ability to build serious far-turn momentum.

True, he'll head into the month of March without a race at two turns. But with a pedigree anchored by sire Tapit and a female family clustered with stayers capable of fast clockings (A.P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat), this isn't the type of prospect you'd doubt would be able to sustain his speed over added ground.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20

Rocket Can got bumped and was away last when sprinting seven furlongs in his Saratoga debut Aug. 6, yet he still managed to pick off half the pack to finish fifth for a trainer (Bill Mott) not known for springing first-out winners.

He then ran an uninspiring seventh, beaten 16 lengths on closing weekend at the Spa over the same distance, behind eventual two-time stakes winner Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro).

But a transition to two turns Oct. 30 at Churchill brought advancement. This Into Mischief gray broke running from post 10 in the slop, staked out an assertive stalking position, got first run at the two pacemakers a quarter mile from the wire, then held sway in a length-of-stretch showdown.

He almost prevailed next time out in a Nov. 26 first-level allowance, again at 1 1/16 miles, losing by only half a length while engaging in another deep-race tussle, and although he finished second, Rocket Can gave the impression he's not the type to back down from stretch slugfests.

His Holy Bull S. score Feb. 4 was more impressive than the tepid 82 Beyer it earned, because the relatively low fig is offset by the ground Rocket Can gave up on both bends before unleashing another focused, mentally intent finish. Right now this colt rates as the type of Derby prospect who isn't likely to dominate or scare away the competition. But his efficiency, resilience, and willingness to mix it up when challenged are all valuable, intangible assets.

5) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0

Cave Rock, the beaten favorite in last November's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile when second behind Forte, is on target to be the latest-returning Top 12 contender of the 2023 season. He has no publicly declared prep race on his radar, and this 'TDN Rising Star' is just two half-mile breezes into training for his sophomore debut.

After starting the season ranked at No. 3, he's been leapfrogged on this list by colts with more recent form. But the gravitas of what this fullback-sized son of Arrogate accomplished at age two (three straight wins, including two in Grade I stakes and one with a gaudy 104 Beyer) will still merit respect when he finally hits the entries.

Cave Rock has been able to generate an intimidatingly high cruising speed up to 1 1/16 miles. But what most Derby prognosticators will be watching for is whether or not he has outgrown his hot-headed tendencies. This colt's loss in the Breeders' Cup was at least partially attributable to him getting visibly keyed-up before the race and then getting sucked into sparring with a 70-1 long shot through an imprudent :22.90 opening quarter.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start:2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.
'TDN Rising Star' Faustin has now fired two bullet moves at four and five furlongs after being outgunned by a stablemate when second in the GII San Vicente S. Jan. 29.
He was tasked with sprinting seven furlongs in that race (shorter than what his pedigree indicates he's capable of) and was forced to try and reel in a loose-on-the-lead favorite under less-than-ideal tactical circumstances. Still, he upped his Beyer by two points off a powerful debut win (89 to 91), and that learning experience, combined with his being by Curlin out of a Hard Spun mare, should pave the way for an improvement in a two-turn stakes.
Faustin is a high-energy gray who, in his Dec. 26 debut, was unfazed by a slow start and twice having to switch off heels at the head of the homestretch.
It is a touch concerning, though, that the horses Faustin beat in that MSW have only managed a collective 1-for-7 record in their next outs, indicating he roughed up a subpar bunch.

7) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Mary & Chester Broman (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.
Hejazi broke his maiden in start number four for trainer Bob Baffert Jan. 15, but over the weekend got transferred to trainer Tim Yakteen as per the nominations list for the one-turn-mile Mar. 4 GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct.
A $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, this New York-bred son of Bernardini has the unusual distinction of having run a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in a losing maiden effort (back on Sept. 10 at Del Mar), and he's never been off the board (including when third as a maiden in the GI American Pharoah S. Oct. 8).
He was able to set the pace under pressure at the rail in his MSW victory over 6 1/2 furlongs after stalking the pace in his first three attempts.

8) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs. John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Table; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-2-1-0, $260,150. Last Start: 1st Opt. Clm at Oaklawn Park Jan. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 4.
Verifying, a May 11 foal who is a half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou, drew the rail for Saturday's Rebel S. at Oaklawn. He's forced the issue in three of his four lifetime races, so that post should play to his advantage by allowing him to secure a forwardly placed ground-saving spot.
This $775,000 KEESEP son of Justify's career started with an 85-Beyer sprint win at the Spa, followed by a second in the GI Champagne S., and then a trouble-at-the-start sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Freshened until Jan. 14, Verifying roared back to the winner's circle with a 97-Beyer, first-level allowance win at Oaklawn. The second- and third-place finishers out of that race have both since come back to win allowance miles in subsequent starts.

9) ARTHUR'S RIDE (c, Tapit–Points of Grace, by Point Given) O-Karl & Cathi Glassman; B-Helen & Joseph Barbazon & Tapit Syndicate (Fl); T-William Mott. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $93,800. Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Feb. 11. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.
Arthur's Ride started his career in the same two seven-furlong MSW contests at Saratoga as fellow-gray stablemate Rocket Can ranked above at No. 4, and he finished second on both occasions.
This $250,000 KEESEP colt resurfaced for trainer Bill Mott Feb. 11 at Gulfstream in a one-turn mile, and as the 2-1 second choice he really caught the eye by taking pace pressure at the rail from the 6-5 favorite for most of the race.
He actually lost but clawed back the lead on two occasions through the turn, and then after he dispatched the chalk, Arthur's Ride ably repulsed what looked like a winning bid from the third choice in the betting.
His damsire Point Given was the beaten fave in the 2001 Derby, but won the GI Preakness S., GI Belmont S. and GI Travers S., while maternal grandsire Thunder Gulch won the 1995 Derby, Belmont, and Travers.

10) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.
Trainer Brad Cox opted not to aim for this past Saturday's Risen Star S. with Instant Coffee, saying he will instead point straight to the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby coming off this colt's last-to-first win in the GIII Lecomte S. Jan. 21.
This son of Bolt d'Oro had been absent from the work tab for four weeks, but he was finally back in action with a moderate :49.80 half-mile breeze (34/109) at Fair Grounds Feb. 18.
That plan of race spacing will leave a nine-week gap for Instant Coffee to try to make the leap from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, and then another six weeks off until the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby. Cox has expressed a belief that this light-on-his-feet colt should relish those longer distances.
But Instant Coffee hasn't had the most arduous path to victory in either of his two stakes wins, having beaten only one current Top 12 foe in either the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. or the Lecomte, and that makes it tough to project how he'll fare when faced with more intense competition.

11) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 6-1-1-1, $313,575. Last Start: 2nd in Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.
This Saturday's Rebel S. at 1 1/16 miles might not be the spot where Red Route One finally uncorks the “put it all together” type of stretch run he's shown flashes of being capable of. But with a stout Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare breeding line, he's looming as a longer-the-better Derby prospect who one of these days is going to catch the right pace setup and a clear enough trip to outrun long odds.
He already has a sturdy foundation of six lifetime races, all at a mile or longer, and this homebred for Winchell Thoroughbreds was most recently a best-of-the-rest second when rallying from last behind No. 1-ranked Arabian Knight in the Southwest S. four weeks ago.
He had significant trip trouble and/or encountered ground loss in all three of his stakes attempts at age two, yet he still managed a couple of decent third- and fourth-place tries.
However, this deep-closing chestnut has still never won on dirt, with his only victory coming over a mile at Kentucky Downs nearly six months ago.

12) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last Start: Won Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita Jan. 29.
Is it too deep into the prep season to tout a sprinter who wired the field at first asking onto the list? By conventional standards, yes. But convention on the Derby trail has long since flown the coop, thanks to the stylishly late-on-the-scene Justify in 2018 (a Feb. 18 debut), and the overall less-is-more mindset in bringing along sophomore prospects.
Yet when Hall-of-Fame conditioner Richard Mandella is the trainer of a flashy winning firster like Geaux Rocket Ride, you pay attention.
This colt is aiming for the Mar. 4 GII San Felipe S. at 1 1/16 miles after administering a full-bore clock-cleaning of a Santa Anita MSW crew over six furlongs Jan. 29. That display of dominance was timed in 1:09.52 and featured a decisive swat-down of the 1-2 favorite before “Geaux” rolled home by 5 3/4 lengths. This $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) earned a 92 Beyer for the effort.
Underscoring that he doesn't make the trip to Louisville unless he's confident he has the right horse, Mandella hasn't had a Kentucky Derby starter since 2004. But in 2019 he was on the cusp of saddling the imposing favorite, Omaha Beach, before having to scratch the colt several days before the Derby because of an entrapped epiglottis.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: Front Four Unchanged Inside 75-Day Mark appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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They know who he is now. Courville pulled off the upset of the year when winning the Rebel with 75-1 shot Un Ojo (Laoban), a one-eyed horse who now has enough points to make it into the field for the GI Kentucky Derby.

Courville was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week on the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland to tell his story and the story of a horse who has surpassed all expectations after losing by 24 lengths in his first career start.

A former jockey who began training in 2008, Courville went to work for owner Cypress Creek Equine, breaking babies and training some of their cheaper horses. Eventually, owner Mike Moreno started giving him some of his better horses to train. But Courville didn't make the trip to Oaklawn for the Rebel, leaving his son Clay in charge. He tried to watch the race on his phone, but said the picture froze.

“My son calls me and he's just screaming on the phone, he's just hollering and screaming,” Courville said. “Then I started getting texts and phone calls for hours after the race. I never got to watch the race until 10:00 that night.”

Courville said the fact that Un Ojo is missing his left eye hasn't caused any serious problems.

“Running, he's fine,” he said. “Handling him around the barn is different. You have to watch it because it's on the side you handle him from, on the left side. Actually, when he first came in, he was really, really timid and he would brush up on you. He put himself against you where he could feel you because he couldn't see you. He wouldn't walk on the side, he'd walk behind you and nudge you with his nose all the way around the barn. But on the track, it took him a long time to really get comfortable. He was maturing late, but once he started running there haven't been any problems. He'll go inside, outside. It doesn't matter to him.”

Courville said that Un Ojo will run next in either the GI Arkansas Derby or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S.

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, West Point Thoroughbreds, XBTV, the Pennsylvania Horse

Breeders Association and Legacy Bloodstock, the writers discussed the latest twists in the Bob Baffert story and speculated whether or not he will win his legal battle and be able to compete in this year's GI Kentucky Derby. They also discussed last week's stakes action and the story of D. Wayne Lukas winning the GIII Honeybee S. at Oaklawn with Secret Oath (Arrogate) and previewed this coming weekend's action.

Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

The post Ricky Courville Joins TDN Writers’ Room appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Dash Attack won his first two career starts, including the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 1, before being beaten 7 ¾ lengths by heavily favored Newgrange in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest. Dash Attack was racing over a fast track for the first time in the Southwest, Oaklawn's second of four Kentucky Derby points races.

“I think between that racetrack being a little bit deep and cuppy, and we kind of had to adjust our work schedule, I think we left him short,” McPeek said. “He got tired in the race. He seemed to come back fine, but I wish I had done a little more with him in hindsight. But the night before, it was extremely cold and I don't think they had much water on it (track) and he didn't handle it well.”

Dash Attack splashed to a two-length victory in the one-mile Smarty Jones, which was Oaklawn's first Kentucky Derby points race. Oaklawn's Kentucky Derby points series continues with the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) Feb. 26 and the $1.25 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 2.

McPeek said Dash Attack “definitely” will be considered for the Rebel, which will offer 85 points (50-20-10-5, respectively) to the top four finishers toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby. The Kentucky Derby is limited to 20 starters, with starting preference given to horses with the highest point totals earned in designated qualifying races.

Dash Attack ranks No. 9 on the latest Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 10 points for his Smarty Jones victory.

“We're not ruling the Rebel out at all,” McPeek said. “We're going to kind of regroup and put another plan together and hopefully it unfolds a little better than the Southwest did.”

Southern California-based Bob Baffert said he will “definitely have something for the Rebel,” a 1 1/16-mile race the Hall of Fame trainer has won a record eight times. Barber Road, runner-up in the Smarty Jones and Southwest, is likely headed to the Rebel, trainer John Ortiz said.

Vivar is off the Kentucky Derby trail following his 10th-place finish in the Southwest, trainer Brad Cox said Tuesday afternoon.

“We're going to give him a break and freshen him up,” said Cox, who trains Vivar for breeder/owner John Ed Anthony of Hot Springs. “Don't really think he's a dirt horse. Kind of always thought he was more grass. We've given him the opportunity and he really didn't answer the questions we were asking, so it's time to back up and give him some time and maybe point him for a grass campaign this summer.”

Vivar finished fifth in the Smarty Jones.

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“I don't have a clue how many horses they've sent me,” said Cox, Oaklawn's leading trainer in 2021-2022. “I can't even keep track. We have a lot. They're great to work with.”

Perhaps the most intriguing prospect Cox received from the Wests following the 2021 Oaklawn meeting, Concert Tour, was among the biggest names during the 2021 Oaklawn meeting.

Then with Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, Concert Tour was a flashy winner of the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds last March – the Cox-trained Caddo River was fifth – before his unbeaten record and Kentucky Derby hopes crashed with a weakening third-place finish in the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) in April. Caddo River was second in the Arkansas Derby.

Concert Tour, who is unraced since a ninth-place finish in last May's Preakness, makes his first start for Cox in the $150,000 Fifth Season Stakes for older horses Saturday at Oaklawn. The 1-mile Fifth Season has drawn a strong field of nine, including three millionaires (Rated R Superstar, Snapper Sinclair and Long Range Toddy), another Oaklawn stakes winner (Silver Prospector) and Mucho, who will be making his two-turn debut.

Probable post time for the Fifth Season, which goes as the eighth of nine races, is 3:46 p.m. (Central). First post Saturday is 12:30 p.m.

Concert Tour, the 5-2 program favorite, has nine published workouts since Nov. 14 in advance of his 4-year-old debut. Concert Tour was entered in the $75,000 Woodchopper Stakes Dec. 27 at Fair Grounds, but scratched after the race didn't come off the grass. A forward factor early in his first five career starts, Concert Tour's return to Oaklawn will mark his first start without blinkers. He also adds Lasix for the first time since his debut last January at Santa Anita.

“I like him a lot,” Cox said. “He's a talented horse. I think if he runs the way he trains, we'll be in good shape.”

The projected Fifth Season field from the rail out: Thomas Shelby, David Cohen to ride, 122 pounds, 5-1 on the morning line; Rated R Superstar, David Cabrera, 122, 8-1; Snapper Sinclair, Ramon Vazquez, 122, 6-1; Necker Island, Francisco Arrieta, 122, 9-2; Concert Tour, Joel Rosario, 122, 5-2; Atoka, Luis Contreras, 122, 15-1; Long Range Toddy, Jon Court, 115, 10-1; Silver Prospector, Ricardo Santana Jr., 115, 10-1; and Mucho, Florent Geroux, 122, 7-2.

Mucho came from just off the pace to capture an allowance sprint Dec. 18 at Oaklawn for trainer John Ortiz and owners WSS Racing (William Simon) and 4 G Racing (Brent and Sharilyn Gasaway). Mucho has bankrolled $686,729 in a 29-race career, but the 6-year-old son of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame has never raced around two turns. Ortiz, on behalf of WSS and 4 G, claimed Mucho for $80,000 in November 2020 at Churchill Downs.

“To me, I don't think distance is going to be an issue,” Ortiz said. “The only variable that we have here is going to be the two turns. Will he sprint out and run off or will he sprint out and be able to rate and either dictate the speed or just sit off the pace and use his sprint ability for the finish?”

Snapper Sinclair seeks his first career stakes victory on dirt after finishing second, beaten a neck in the 2020 Fifth Season, and finishing fifth in the 2019 Fifth Season for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen and co-owner Jeff Bloom (Bloom Racing). Snapper Sinclair finished fifth in his last start, the $100,000 Prairie Bayou Stakes Dec. 18 at Turfway Park. Turfway has a synthetic surface.

“He had come out of the Breeders' Cup in such great shape and we didn't really have a whole of options with him and he had yet to run on a synthetic track,” Bloom said. “We just figured, 'What the heck? Let's give it a try.' It was one of his extremely rare, sort of flat performances, so we just kind of drawn a line through that one and refocus on the coming year.”

The speedy Thomas Shelby cuts back to a mile after finishing a game second behind heralded stablemate Lone Rock in the inaugural $200,000 Tinsel Stakes at 1 1/8 miles Dec. 18 at Oaklawn for trainer Robertino Diodoro.

“I think it's the best race he's run,” Diodoro said.

Thomas Shelby won seven races in 2021, including two last spring at Oaklawn, after being privately purchased by Diodoro's major client, four-time local leading owner M and M Racing (Mike and Mickala Sisk).

Silver Prospector, another Asmussen trainee, is seeking his first stakes victory since the $750,000 Southwest (G3) for 3-year-olds in 2020 at Oaklawn. Necker Island ran ninth in the rescheduled 2020 Kentucky Derby and returns to a route after finishing fourth in the $150,000 Thanksgiving Classic Stakes Nov. 25 at Fair Grounds for 2015 Oaklawn training champion Chris Hartman.

The Fifth Season is a major steppingstone toward the $1 million Oaklawn Handicap (G2) for older horses April 23. The Asmussen-trained Silver State won the Fifth Season and Oaklawn Handicap in 2021.

The post Rebel Stakes Winner Concert Tour Returns For Cox In Saturday’s Fifth Season At Oaklawn appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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