1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is the kingpin colt among the sophomores who switched out of trainer Bob Baffert's barn over the past week and into the care of Baffert's former assistant from two decades ago, Tim Yakteen. The transition was necessitated by a Churchill Downs ban on Baffert trainees that prohibits them from accruing qualifying points or racing in the Derby while under Baffert's control.

Top-ranked on this list since the outset of the season, this intimidatingly speedy, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) is being aimed for either the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 1 or the GI Santa Anita Derby one week later.

Staying home at Santa Anita means being able to race out of his own stall there. But shipping hasn't adversely affected either of his on-the-road wins, and Arabian Knight showed he can absolutely devour a wet Oaklawn racetrack if that condition arises again.

That last victory was a thorough shellacking of an overmatched field in the GIII Southwest S. in Hot Springs Jan. 28, in which Arabian Knight earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while dominating the tempo and not being throttled for maximum output.

Arabian Knight has only had one published workout since that win, a three-furlong move at Santa Anita back on Feb. 13, though there have been no recorded breezes of any variety since Feb. 23 owing to a rare winter storm.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 5-4-0-0,  $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) will have a figurative target on his back in Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. It's his 2023 debut off a four-month layoff, and he drew post four as the 7-5 morning line favorite.

Somewhat surprisingly, this 'TDN Rising Star' by Violence didn't go off favored in any of the three Grade I victories that closed out his juvenile campaign, although he was the chalk in both his May 27 debut win at Belmont (7 3/4 lengths) and in start number two, a fourth-place try in the GII Sanford S. at Saratoga.

Yet this colt's trio of Grade I wins in the Hopeful S., Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S., and Breeders' Cup Juvenile each revealed new tactical dimensions, and Forte's knack of being able to essentially pick his own positioning before reliably firing a big shot off the far turn is a skill that a number of his competitors still haven't mastered. Watching the leggy, athletic Forte target and reel in horses without flinching from stretch fights whets the appetite for what he might be able to deliver on a two-prep path to Louisville.

But longer-term statistical trends could be stumbling blocks: as for this Saturday, be aware that favorites have lost 12 of the last 16 editions of the Fountain of Youth. Widening the lens to take in 38 years of Breeders' Cup history, only two colts (Nyquist and Street Sense) have parlayed wins in the Juvenile into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is headed for the Mar. 11 GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby for start number four.

His Nov. 6 debut at Aqueduct was a better-than-it-looks learning experience based on his fast-closing third. This colt's Dec. 17 MSW win, also at Aqueduct, rated as an eye-opener because of his unfazed attitude after brushing, bumping and running down a rival in a deep-stretch mud fight. But it was the over-the-top nature of Tapit Trice's gaudy, eight-length allowance pummeling at Gulfstream on Feb. 4 (92 Beyer) that stamped his Kentucky Derby aspirations as realistic and achievable.

This $1.3-million KEESEP son of Tapit still needs to hone his early-race skills by overcoming lackadaisical breaks from the gate. But as the distances increase and he gains experience against larger fields, those are the types of developmental concerns that seasoning can melt away like the spring thaw.

This year, the Tampa Bay Derby has been downgraded from Grade II to III. Part of that demotion had to do with the race's recent trend of well-meant favorites being no-shows while the long-shot winners went on to be low-impact factors in subsequent stakes.

Although the 4-5 choice Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) won Tampa's big race last year, the previous four Tampa Derbies were won by harder-to-figure horses at odds of 15-1, 49-1, 8-1 and 19-1.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20

As the co-fourth choice on the morning line for Saturday's Fountain of Youth S., Rocket Can isn't facing the same scrutiny or pressure as race favorite and divisional champ Forte. But this Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) will still be under the gun to prove his GIII Holy Bull S. score was no fluke, and he needs to shrug off the stigma of having relatively low speed figures compared to other top Derby hopefuls.

Rocket Can has plateaued with 82 Beyers in his last two starts on Nov. 26 and Feb. 4. But as discussed in previous editions of this list, his efforts rate considerably higher from a “how he did it” visual perspective. He gave up ground on both turns of the Holy Bull while always within three lengths of the leaders, and when he commandeered the lead off the final turn of that short-stretch configuration, Rocket Can finished focused through the lane while chased home by a tenacious stablemate.

Over the same 1 1/16-mile setup that starts close to the first turn and ends at the sixteenth pole, look for jockey Junior Alvarado to try and execute a follow-the-favorite strategy on Saturday, a tactic that should be a smooth fit for this colt's capable stalking style.

5) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style that evokes his sire still merits a strong foothold within the Top 12 despite the certainty that he'll be the last colt on this list to make his first sophomore start.

Powerful and promising at age two, this physically imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) detonated a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never being fully extended.

But in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he got hot and bothered pre-race, then had trouble settling when trying to clear an irrationally exuberant 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter. Cave Rock seized the lead a half-mile from home, but Forte had far more in the tank while Cave Rock languished too long on his left lead in the stretch.

Still, the second-place effort was commendable given those less-than-optimal circumstances, and Cave Rock looms as a front-end force when he finally hits the entries.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael L Petersen; B-DATTT Farm (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) was christened a 'TDN Rising Star' upon debut back on opening day at Santa Anita, overcoming multiple examples of trip adversity (some of it self-inflicted) to win first time out.

In start number two, he ran a credible second despite being tactically disadvantaged behind a one-turn-specialist stablemate Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the GII San Vicente S. going seven furlongs. The latter returned to just miss in last weekend's G3 Saudi Derby Cup over a stamina-stretching mile.

Additional ground along the Derby trail (next start not yet disclosed) should aid Faustin's development arc, because 10 furlongs is well within the scope of his pedigree. His damsire and sire, Hard Spun and Curlin, finished second and third, respectively, in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Half a year later, Curlin and Hard Spun ran one-two in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

7) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Mary & Chester Broman (Ky); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Hejazi, a New York-bred, $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, is among the headliners in Saturday's 11-horse GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita. He has four races of experience, but only one try around two turns, which came last October while still a maiden and attempting winners (third in the GI American Pharoah S.).

He drew post seven for the San Felipe, and coming off a 6 1/2-furlong MSW score in which he led the field through early fractions of :21.97 and :44.28, Hejazi projects to be a forward factor on the stretch-out.

This will be his second start off a freshening (and his first for trainer Tim Yakteen on a transfer from Bob Baffert), and Hejazi merits respect based on the 97 Beyer he earned and the authoritative way he swatted back two deep-stretch challengers inside the final 100 yards.

A concern, though, is that four of the horses he beat on Jan. 15 have already raced again, and the best finish among them was a third-place try.

8) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Sagamore Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee's company lines got a boost when the third- and fourth-place finishers out of his Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. tally came back to win their next starts. Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) scored in last Saturday's GII Rebel S. at 18-1 odds and Denington (Gun Runner) popped at 8-1 in a Feb. 18 first-level allowance route at Fair Grounds.

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) is three-for-four lifetime, with his only loss coming when fourth in a key renewal of the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October.

He is, however, the type of colt you'd like to see more of before deciding if he's a true 10-furlong horse.

That's not going to happen under trainer Brad Cox's current two-prep sophomore plan. With the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby projected as his next race, Instant Coffee is going to have nine weeks between starts trying to make the jump from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, then another six weeks until the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby.

He's currently two breezes into training since his last race.

9) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One is a longer-the-better type who isn't going to head to Louisville as a Derby standout. Yet he has the staying power and pedigree to be a dangerous threat; the type of double-digit longshot who will sit far back, make one sustained run, and if the trip and pace scenarios shake out in his favor–look out.

This son of Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Eclipse Award and GI Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable (Tapit) is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred who rallied from far off the tailgate and splashed into the homestretch of the GII Rebel S. with abandon, avoiding the crowding that was going on closer to the rail but not still shying from outer-path roughhousing in upper stretch before accelerating with a separate, deep-race burst in the run to the wire (92 Beyer for second).

True, he's never won on dirt. But Red Route One's past-performance block consists of seven route races on turf and dirt, and a wet racetrack hasn't been a problem on the three occasions he's encountered slop (twice second, once fifth).

“Obviously, we're anxious for the races to go farther,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “Not positive we won't wheel him back in the Louisiana Derby, a mile and three-sixteenths. Quit messing around and get him on out there.”

10) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last Start: Won Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

This colt's 92-Beyer, 5 3/4-length, smash-and-grab score in a six-furlong Santa Anita MSW sprint was encouraging enough for the generally conservative trainer Richard Mandella to declare him a “geaux” for two-turn stakes company, and he'll start from post eight in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe S. on Saturday.

Geaux Rocket Ride's form was flattered when the runner-up from that Jan. 29 win, Sonoran (Ride on Curlin), returned Feb. 20 to break his maiden by 7 1/4 lengths as a 3-5 favorite.

This $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) retains the services of jockey Flavien Prat for this weekend's engagement.

But, like six other entrants in the San Felipe, he'll have to come off the medication Lasix as he advances into stakes territory. That many horses making the off-Lasix switch lends an accentuated a wild-card flavor to what already looms as a tough 11-horse race to handicap.

11) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start:  Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game is a plucky, adaptable overachiever ($25,000 KEESEP) with some racing royalty in his bloodlines: his dam, former 'TDN Rising Star' Eblouissante, is a Bernardini half-sister to the mighty Zenyatta.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux said this son of Candy Ride (Arg) “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his 94-Beyer winning effort in the sloppy Rebel S. last Saturday. But jockey James Graham was able to settle down Confidence Game during his warm-up, and the colt got a sweet mid-pack trip while fifth behind two longshot speedsters and two stalking favorites who never truly fired despite no-excuse trips.

Responding to far-turn rousing, Confidence Game got third run at the wilting leaders while widest off the turn, then largely avoided inside traffic with a work-in-progress kind of stretch run that included some outward wandering late (94 Beyer).

“He's really come into his own,” Desormeaux said. “He started off pretty immature. But as the races went on [seven total, five of them routes], he has improved things mentally and physically.”

12) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame, will be on trainer Todd Pletcher's traveling team with an expected next start in the Louisiana Derby. He most recently scored a 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa.

Note that even though the track is listed as 'fast' on the Equibase chart, that Feb. 11 race was run in a downpour, which might be a contributing factor to Litigate's tepid 77 Beyer and the race's lethargic closing fractions.

Sent to clear the field from post 10 by Luis Saez, Litigate ably rated back to fifth on the backstretch. He uncorked a decent move between the five-sixteenths pole and the quarter pole, then had to be ridden hard through the lane to put away a 21-1 shot and a 12-1 shot, finishing through driving rain in a sluggish final sixteenth clocked in :7.05.

His two previous tries showed promise, and they could prove to be useful building blocks as this colt attempts longer races more suited to his distance-centric pedigree: sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19, Litigate stalked with purpose behind a three-way battle for the lead, patiently took the overland route through the turn, then drew away respectably. Tasked with a one-turn mile allowance at Gulfstream Jan. 8, he nailed second by a nose behind a daylight winner.

He's worth consideration in New Orleans if you think the long Fair Grounds stretch will be his friend.

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Breaking from the same gate as Wet Paint (Blame) won from one race prior in the GIII Honeybee S., Confidence Game raced two-wide past the stands and settled a path off the rail as the field sorted themselves out into the first turn. Powerful (Nyquist) and Frosted Departure (Frosted) did their best to separate themselves from the group, duking it out on the front end just ahead of stablemates Verifying (Justify) and Giant Mischief (Into Mischief). The first quarter, up in :22.75, had the field strung out up the backstretch with Red Route One (Gun Runner) looking hopelessly beaten in the back. Confidence Game hung back just off those top four, shifting out a path as a rival came along inside for an outside move past the group of leg-weary leaders. Widest of the field past the quarter pole, he rallied with momentum down the lane despite hanging on his left lead. Red Route One came roaring up from the back of the pack inside the final sixteenth but ran out of time as Confidence Game hit the wire in front.

“He sort of lost his mind in the paddock, so I was worried until he got on the track,” said Desormeaux. “James [Graham] got him to settle down out there. He's really come into his own. He started off pretty immature, but as the races went on, he has improved things mentally, and physically.”

Winning rider Graham added: “I was able to settle him down when we were warming up so he got back in the things mentally. I was really happy with where I was early in the race. He wasn't doing too much too soon. He had a ton left down the lane. I'm just so happy for everyone involved and especially this horse. He keeps maturing and doing things the right way. I think the sky is the limit for him.”

Pedigree Notes:

A bargain buy at just $25,000 as a yearling at Keeneland September, Confidence Game is out of a half-sister to Horse of the Year Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}) and MGISW Balance (Thunder Gulch). Second dam Vertigineux was named 2008's Broodmare of the Year, while Eblouissante has twice brought big dollars at sales, first from St. George Farm at the 2013 KEENOV sale for $2.1 million and finally from Summer Wind Farm at Tattersalls in 2016 for 1,100,000gns.

Confidence Game is followed by juvenile and yearling half-brothers by More Than Ready and Speightstown, respectively, while Eblouissante was bred to Maclean's Music for this spring. Confidence Game is the 52nd graded-stakes winner for Candy Ride (Arg).

Saturday, Oaklawn Park
REBEL S.-GII, $1,000,000, Oaklawn, 2-25, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:44.21, sy.
1–CONFIDENCE GAME, 119, c, 3, by Candy Ride (Arg)
               1st Dam: Eblouissante, by Bernardini
               2nd Dam: Vertigineux, by Kris S.
               3rd Dam: For the Flag, by Forli
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($25,000 Ylg
'21 KEESEP). O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind
Equine LLC (KY); T-J. Keith Desormeaux; J-James Graham.
$581,750. Lifetime Record: 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus*. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree or free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Red Route One, 117, c, 3, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit.
O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen.
$179,000.
3–Reincarnate, 122, c, 3, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy.
($775,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing,
Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables
LLC, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC and
Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY); T-Tim
Yakteen. $89,500.
Margins: 1, 1HF, 2 3/4. Odds: 18.50, 9.90, 4.80.
Also Ran: Verifying, Bourbon Bash, Giant Mischief, Gun Pilot, Frosted Departure, Powerful, Event Detail, Talladega.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

The post Candy Ride’s Confidence Game Splashes Home In Rebel appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Verifying (Justify), a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute), rounded out the exacta behind Blazing Sevens (Good Magic) in a sloppy-track running of the GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct Oct. 1 and never truly threatened in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile after getting pinched back at the break. The $775,000 Keeneland September purchase could not have been more impressive in a first-level allowance going a mile on sophomore debut here Jan. 14, as he widened through the short stretch to treat Gun Pilot (Gun Runner) to a 5 1/4-length beating.

The 2-1 morning-line favorite figures to be tested by stablemate Giant Mischief (Into Mischief), who makes his seasonal debut off a remarkable runner-up effort in the Springboard Mile in December. A Keeneland allowance winner sprinting in his prior appearance, the bay made a mess of the break and trailed, then made a quick, wide move on the turn before falling just short as the odds-on favorite.

“I expected him to run big that night and he did,” Cox said. “I never expected him to break like that. Just rocked back a step right before they popped him. He's a good horse as well. We're looking forward to giving him another run around two turns.”

A Rebel 'yell' for several of the remaining nine entrants would not come as a surprise. Red Route One (Gun Runner) raced detached from the rest of the field in the GIII Southwest S., but rallied strongly over a rain-affected strip he may not have loved to be second to tearaway winner 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo).

Reincarnate (Good Magic) ships in from California and is to be saddled for the first time by Tim Yakteen. A maiden winner at fourth asking at Del Mar in November, he more or less made all the running in the GIII Sham S. Jan. 8, holding off next-out GIII Robert B. Lewis S. hero Newgate (Into Mischief) by a neck.

And a case can even be made for Gun Pilot, who franked the form of the Verfying allowance with a two-length success Feb. 4 in which he overcame some trouble on the turn to best Bourbon Bash (City of Light). Trainer Steve Asmussen is a four-time winner of the Rebel.

A total of 100 points (50-20-15-10-5) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby are up for grabs Saturday.

Wet Paint Can Keep Ball Rolling in Honeybee

Godolphin's Wet Paint (Blame), undefeated in a pair of starts going two turns on dirt, looks to negotiate the hike into graded stakes company as the one to beat in the GIII Honeybee S.

Like her stable companion Giant Mischief, Wet Paint broke her maiden at Indiana Grand last fall and, following an allowance second going a mile on the Turfway all-weather in December, finished with good energy to defeat the re-opposing Taxed (Collected) and Defining Purpose (Cross Traffic) in the Jan. 28 Martha Washington S.

Olivia Twist (Mshawish) is a fair bet to take tons of action off what feels a very overlaid morning line of 15-1. A $230,000 OBS June acquistion, the bay took her two-turn bow by 15 lengths at Remington Nov. 21 and was the two-length winner of the Dec. 17 Trapeze S. in Oklahoma City. The 21-10 second pick in the Martha Washington, she gave way readily after six furlongs over a wet-fast track and deserves the benefit of the doubt, particularly if underbet.

The post Verifying ‘Checks’ All Boxes In Hot Renewal of Rebel appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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So far as the Rebel, in which he will start Verifying (Justify) and Giant Mischief (Into Mischief), Cox is optimistic he can pick up another major win on the road to the Derby.

“I think that Verifying is a very good horse,” he said. “The last time out at Oaklawn, he showed the ability to set close to the pace. I think the fractions [in the Rebel] will be similar, maybe even quicker. I don't expect to necessarily be on the lead but somewhat forwardly placed in a good stalking position. If he runs as well as he's training, I think he's going to be right there. He's a good colt. Giant Mischief is also a very good colt. I thought he ran a winning race at Remington [in the Springboard Mile], but, obviously, just didn't get away well. He made a big middle move and then kind of flattened out. This was by design to give him a little time after that race. He had three good runs at two, three positive races. And I thought he showed in his Remington race that he could stretch out. We're looking forward to getting him started at three.”

Like most trainers with top horses and clients, winning the Derby has become a focal point for Cox, who said he's living a dream with this many good horses.

“This has been my dream for a long, long time, to get into this position, acquire good colts from top outfits, top breeders, top owners throughout the country,” he said. “These horses, you need to have a lot of them to be on this stage. That we have so many at this point just proves that we've got a really, really good program. It's a team effort and it's years and years of training young horses and being able to stop on them when they need to be stopped on and then having them ready to go in the fall of their two-year-old year or to begin their three-year-old season to try to make that push for the Kentucky Derby because it is very, very demanding.”

Officially, Cox has won the Kentucky Derby. The Cox-trained Mandaloun (Into Mischief) was awarded the win in 2021 after Medina Spirit (Protonico) was disqualified due to a medication overage. But Cox said he doesn't really feel like he's won the race and wants to win it by sending out the best horse.

“It hasn't felt like winning the Kentucky Derby,” he said. “If you're awarded the race how do you explain that to people? I have to say, 'Oh, yeah, I've won it, but my horse didn't cross the wire first.' If I met a stranger and they didn't know much about horse racing, I'd have to explain how I won the Derby. I definitely don't feel that we've won the Kentucky Derby. We know the Kentucky Derby is not the richest race run in America, but I think it is without a doubt the most prestigious. All the eyes are on racing that day with the telecast, the crowd and everything. And it's the thrill of victory, bottom line. I haven't experienced that thrill and I look forward to it someday.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, XBTV, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders and West Point Thoroughbreds, Randy Moss, Zoe Cadman and Bill Finley reviewed last week's races at the Fair Grounds, including the Risen Star and the disappointing effort by Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. Steve Asmussen's 10,000th win was also discussed with Finley predicting that Asmussen is setting records that will never be broken. To preview the G1 Saudi Cup, Cadman caught up with jockeys Mike Smith and Frankie Dettori in a new segment on the podcast, 1/ST things 1/ST at Santa Anita.

The post Brad Cox Joins TDN Writers’ Room Podcast appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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A maiden winner in his second start around two turns this past January, the $90,000 Keeneland September graduate ran a monster race to be second in the GII Rebel S. before finishing off the board in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. and GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. on consecutive weekends in April. Nevertheless, Ethereal Road was entered for the GI Kentucky Derby and drew gate 20, but his 11th-hour scratching allowed the first of two horses on the also-eligible list, Rich Strike (Keen Ice), to draw into the race. The chestnut would go on to upset the Run for the Roses at 80-1, while Ethereal Road entered the Belmont conversation with a convincing victory in the Sir Barton S. on the GI Preakness S. undercard May 21.

According to the Martin tweet, Ethereal Road will be pointed for the GII Jim Dandy S. and GI Runhappy Travers S. this summer at Saratoga.

The post Ethereal Road Reportedly Out of Belmont appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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There was only one points-based GI Kentucky Derby prep last weekend, but even though it produced a 75-1 winner, there was no major shakeup within the ranks. This coming Saturday's quartet of qualifying points races, headlined by the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park, portends the possibility of some major moves in the near future, though.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $301,100. Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 16.

This Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper looms as the horse to beat in the Mar. 12 GII Tampa Bay Derby. But let the bettor beware–the last four editions of that race have been won by longshots higher than 8-1. Feb. 26 marked the first breeze for Classic Causeway since his grace-under-pressure wiring of the Feb. 12 GIII Sam F. Davis S., and he clocked in at :48.50 for a measured half mile at Palm Meadows (25/120). Although this colt's only other win from four starts was a 90-Beyer, 6 1/2-length score (at 13-1 odds!) in his Saratoga unveiling, his third- and second-place tries in subsequent graded stakes were also impressive and very much useful from an experience-building perspective.

Classic Causeway got hung out to dry from post 13 when a beaten fave in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. Oct 9, then he stalked capably and was on the move with 'TDN Rising Star' and eventual winner Smile Happy (Runhappy) before yielding late in the in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 27. He didn't have to scrape the bottom of his stamina reserves when winning at 1 1/16 miles last month, and the deeper into the Derby season that he remains a top contender, the better his Giant's Causeway (out of a Thunder Gulch mare) breeding line will look come May 7.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW,  3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.

We often hear trainers say some variation of “all options are open,” but that phrasing is not a cliché in the case of 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy. Here's a sky's-the-limit colt with some swagger to his style who'll be making his second start off of a better-than-it-appears 2022 debut, and he has the potential to scare off competition wherever trainer Kenny McPeek opts to send him. McPeek said Friday this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) will likely race next in either the GI Curlin Florida Derby Apr. 2 or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. Apr. 9. The goal, he said, is to keep Smile Happy and stablemate Rattle N Roll (Connect) separated. Both are stabled at Gulfstream, and “you'll see one in the Blue Grass and one in the Florida Derby.”

Of Smile Happy's second-place effort in the Feb. 19 GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds, McPeek said, “He ran well in New Orleans. I think he could have been a tad closer, but the pace didn't set up well for him. He still showed real bravery to run late.”

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.

   'TDN Rising Star' Messier on Monday posted his first workout since a 15-length, 103-Beyer thrashing of the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Feb. 5. He breezed a half mile in :48 at Santa Anita (16/57). This $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker clearly rates as the top West Coast sophomore threat, but currently remains ineligible to earn Derby qualifying points or to start at Churchill Downs because of trainer Bob Baffert's banishment by the track's corporate parent. Baffert is also trying to fight a separate Kentucky Horse Racing Commission suspension related to a drug positive in his 2021 Derby winner that could keep him out of action for a 90-day period that would run Mar. 8-June 5.

4) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $50,400. Last Start: 1st Tampa Bay Downs ALW. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

The physically imposing Emmanuel has been honed with two bullet breezes at Palm Beach Downs ahead of Saturday's off-Lasix start in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. This 'TDN Rising Star' has won his two combined starts by 10 1/4 lengths and has been on the front end at every call (although a rival in his Tampa allowance win briefly seized the lead between calls in upper stretch before Emmanuel snatched it right back). This $350,000 KEESEP son of More Than Ready has projected as a “speed of the speed” type of horse since a one-turn-mile MSW crushing three months ago at Gulfstream, and now he'll be asked to dive into the deep end of the Derby prep pool. Bearing the likely burden of favoritism will make the task even more difficult: The public's choice in the Fountain of Youth has gone down in defeat in four of the last five editions, managing only three wins from the last 15 renewals.

5) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 12.

Mo Donegal owns two victories sandwiched by a pair of thirds, and it wouldn't be a stretch to say he's packed more learning into those starts than any of the other contenders on this list. This $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo broke slowly from the rail in his 6 1/2-furlong debut, checked at the half-mile pole, then rallied with purpose. His MSW win at 1 1/16 miles featured a midpack rally to close an open-length gap late. In the GII Remsen S., he glided athletically past four frontrunners at the head of the lane before engaging in a tenacious stretch battle to beat well-regarded Zandon (Upstart) by a nose after :12.33 final furlong. His Holy Bull run produced a world of trip trouble, but Mo Donegal overcame being boxed in and getting hooked wide before unleashing a belated burst through the final sixteenth (that could have resulted in a better placing had the race not been run under a short-stretch configuration at Gulfstream).

6) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Possible for GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

Although Zandon is one of two horses ranked within the Top 12 not to have won beyond the maiden ranks (No. 12 is the other), his bandwagon is sagging under the weight of supporters piling on after his gallant blown-break rally in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. It's also a little odd to see that such a coveted mount has had a new jockey every time he's raced (Joel Rosario, John Velazquez, Jose Ortiz). Earlier this winter, trainer Chad Brown favorably compared Zandon to his 2017 GI Preakness S. winner Cloud Computing (both won their MSW debuts going short even though neither was cut out to be a sprinter). If this $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart goes next in the Apr. 9 GI Blue Grass S. as anticipated, he'd have only four starts under his belt if Brown then opts to go to Louisville with him. Since 1937, only three horses have won the Derby with four or fewer lifetime starts: Animal Kingdom (four), plus Justify and Big Brown (three each).

7) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 64.

After Epicenter got nailed at the wire by an out-of-the-clouds longshot to lose the GIII Lecomte S. by a head back on Jan. 22, jockey Joel Rosario described him as a hard tryer who is “very straightforward, everything he does.” That description resonated after this $260,000 KEESEP colt wired the GII Risen Star S. in wrapped-up fashion in his next start. But the Lecomte might end up being the better barometer moving forward. An all-business Epicenter won several internal pace battles before turning back a wall of horses at the head of the lane, then won a prolonged stretch battle with the favorite. Yes, he got blindsided at the final jump by a pick-up-the-pieces 28-1 shot. But Epicenter galloped out stronger and longer after the wire. That's the type of total-race composure that is invaluable in Louisville, but that sophomores don't often display in the middle of winter. With two open-length wins and a narrow defeat over the Fair Grounds surface, this son of Not This Time will have a distinct home-court advantage heading into the Louisiana Derby.

8) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

The write-up for Zandon (at No. 6 above) referenced that he could only have four lifetime starts heading into the Derby. But his stablemate, Early Voting, might only have three. The difference is this $200,000 KEESEP colt owns a stakes win and a 2-for-2 record. The little bit we've seen from this first-crop son of Gun Runner so far indicates he's a speed-centric threat capable of applying sustained pressure rather than making one flashy move, and his learning curve appears to be arcing upward. Early Voting is the lone Top 12 contender to be training in New York for the winter; unless trainer Chad Brown decides to enter him on Wednesday for Saturday's GIII Gotham S. (a cut back to a one-turn mile after a GIII Withers S. win at nine furlongs), it appears as if the Apr. 9 GII Wood Memorial S. will be his target. At the time Early Voting won the Withers, a legit criticism was that the field seemed weak. But this past Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn featured a $152 upset by Withers runner-up Un Ojo (Laoban).

9) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-0-1, $379,460. Last Start: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 10.

Trainer Kenny McPeek keeps bringing up an interesting point on Twitter: Why aren't all points-eligible Derby preps run at equal weights? He cites, for example, that Rattle N Roll, as a graded stakes winner at a mile or over, will run off a five-month layoff in Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. carrying the maximum 123 pounds. Others with lesser records will be eligible for weight breaks.

“Should my 3-year-olds be pointed to only preps that are equal weights?” McPeek wrote. “This has me thinking about doing exactly that.”

Regardless of the weight his colt will have to shoulder, McPeek probably wouldn't want to swap out this son of Connect ($55,000 KEENOV; $210,000 KEESEP) for any other Derby prospect. Rattle N Roll unwound from midpack to run off with the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. by 4 1/4 lengths back on Oct. 9, leaving current No.1 contender Classic Causeway in his wake. A foot abscess kept him out of the Breeders' Cup, and McPeek has brought him back slowly but steadily, with two breezes each at three, four and five furlongs since the end of January.

10) MAJOR GENERAL (c, Constitution–No Mo Lemons, by Uncle Mo) O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Circular Road Breeders (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $265,000 ylg '20 KEEJAN; $420,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $232,525. Last Start: 1st GIII Iroquois S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 10.

Trainer Todd Pletcher had some juggling to do among his sophomores at entry time for Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., and with Emmanuel and Mo Donegal opting for Gulfstream, that put Major General on the traveling team headed for the Mar. 12 GII Tampa Bay Derby. This Constitution colt ($265,000 KEEJAN; $420,000 KEESEP) will be approaching nearly six months between starts, having wrapped up his juvenile season early on Sept. 18 with a victory in the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill Downs. That race resonated strongly from a visual perspective–Major General overcame a bobble at the break, lost momentum four wide through the first turn, engaged the favorite 2 1/2 furlongs out while not shying from rough contact in upper stretch, then still had enough left late overpower an onrushing closer. Yet the Iroquois has proven to be a weak race, with the horses Major General defeated that night under the Churchill lights now a collective 2-for-20 since then. And its 1:44.88 final clocking wasn't stellar either: In the prior race on the card, 2-year-old fillies in the GIII Golden Rod S. at the same 1 1/16 miles distance ran faster by 1.10 seconds.

11) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $240,850. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 12.

Only No. 3-ranked Messier (103) and No. 7-ranked Epicenter (98), have run faster Beyers than White Abarrio (97) among all sophomores so far this season. After wiring the Holy Bull S. at 6-1 odds ahead of trip-troubled favorites, this son of Race Day ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) had his first breeze back since the win on Sunday, working three furlongs in :36.22 (4/29) at Gulfstream, where he is 3-for-3 and preparing for the Florida Derby.

“Going into his last race, he really didn't have ideal preparation,” said trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. “He actually missed two works. When you go into a race like that after missing two works, you're giving up some kind of fitness. When a horse runs such a big race and you don't have him as fit as he should be, I think it's taxing for a horse. You don't want to bring them back too quick off a layoff.”

12) GIANT GAME (c, Giant's Causeway–Game For More, by More Than Ready) O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-H. Allen Poindexter (KY). T-Dale Romans. Sales History: $500,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-0-3, $244,900. Last Start: 8th GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 4.

Would you breathe easier knowing that Giant Game's eighth-place finish in the Holy Bull S. was at least partially attributable to a displacement of his soft palate that has since been corrected by a common surgical procedure? Hopefully, this son of Giant's Causeway will be the one breathing easier in Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Remember that airway problems plagued Medina Spirit around this time of the season last year (March operation to fix an entrapped epiglottis), and he recovered well enough to go from being a mid-tier California contender to crossing the wire first in the Kentucky Derby at 12-1 odds. This $500,000 FTKSEL colt ran an above-expectations third at 21-1 in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and he's gotten a lot thicker since last autumn according to trainer Dale Romans: “He's not the tallest horse in the world. He's a more racier Giant's Causeway than you usually see.”

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Belgrade (Hard Spun): We're edging into March and there isn't much room on the list for late bloomers, but this H. Graham Motion trainee ($45,000 at FTKSEL and just sold for $700,000 at KEEJAN) remains an intriguing wild card off a 2-for-2 start at Fair Grounds and Tampa.

Blackadder (Quality Road): This $620,000 KEESEP colt was back on Monday's work tab at Santa Anita following a late-run win in the Feb. 12 El Camino Real Derby.

Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred and 'TDN Rising Star' owns an 8 1/2-length, 93-Beyer win for Pletcher in a one-turn MSW mile at Gulfstream.

Ethereal Road (Quality Road): Gave up serious real estate while hooked four wide on both turns in the slowly run GII Rebel S., yet led from the quarter pole until 50 yards from the wire. Not a bad effort for a recent 19-1 MSW grad. GI Arkansas Derby is next for this D. Wayne Lukas-trained $90,000 KEEEP colt.

In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) rides an upward-trending speed figures arc (that tops out with a 92 Beyer) into stakes company with a start in Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S.

Un Ojo (Laoban): This one-eyed, New York-bred gelding leapfrogged the leaderboard to snare second on the qualifying points list after a 75-1 shocker in the rain-soaked Rebel. He saved ground every step and came to life 50 yards before the finish to post an 84-Beyer upset; 3-year-old fillies in a companion stakes ran nearly a second faster for same distance earlier on that card. Onward to the Arkansas Derby.

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Ridden for pace from his inside draw, Kavod (Lea) dueled inside of heavily favored GIII Southwest S. hero Newgrange (Violence) passing under the wire for the first time and made the running just off the inside through an opening couple of furlongs in :23.42. Un Ojo scraped paint from midpack early on, then was slipped a bit of rein by Ramon Vazquez to ease into third as the Rebel field reached the half-mile marker.

About the same time that John Velazquez began to get serious aboard the previously unbeaten Newgrange, Vazquez was after Un Ojo to take a shot up the fence approaching the entrance to the stretch. Unable to take full advantage at that juncture, Un Ojo was shuffled back to about fourth position as Ethereal Road, trapped out for the entire trip, rolled up outside of Newgrange to make a line of three about three-sixteenths from home. Despite doing it toughest over what appeared a very sticky surface, Ethereal Road hit the front at the furlong grounds and looked as if he was home free, but Un Ojo found his second wind closest to the rail with a sixteenth of a mile to race and was home narrowly best. Barber Road (Race Day) raced in the slipstream of the eventual winner for much of the race, lost a bit of momentum when swerving toward the fence nearing the final eighth of a mile and attacked the line to just miss second. Newgrange could do no better than sixth.

Un Ojo graduated at second asking for this trainer at Delta Downs Nov. 5 and was fourth on 15 days' rest in the Jean Lafitte Futurity before joining the barn of Tony Dutrow to take advantage of the state-bred program in New York. A narrowly beaten and troubled second in the New York Stallion Series S. at Aqueduct Dec. 18, the March foal was exiting a strong finishing runner-up effort behind Early Voting (Gun Runner) in the modestly rated and widely criticized renewal of the GIII Withers S. at the Big A Feb. 5.

“I've loved this horse since Day 1. I knew he had the talent to be this kind of horse. I always had the confidence in him. He just improved so much every single day, every single race. This is a dream come true. Two strong efforts in his last two races. Closed really well in the last two races with (trainer) Mr. Anthony Dutrow, who has done a great job with the horse. He sent him down here for us to run and he came here. We were hoping he would close good. He kind of laid a little closer than we thought. He grinded away today.”

Pedigree Notes:

Un Ojo is the first graded winner and fourth stakes winner overall from the second crop to the races for the late Laoban, who passed away at the age of eight last May. He is the sire's 10th black-type winner and third winner at the graded level overall.

Southern Equine Stable, who raced Laoban to a 27-1 upset in the 2016 GII Jim Dandy S., acquired the colt's multiple stakes-placed dam for $40,000 with this foal in utero at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton New York Fall Mixed Sale at Saratoga. Risk a Chance is a daughter of GSW Seeking the Ante, whose four-time stakes-winning daughter Mineralogist (Mineshaft) produced SW Can You Diggit (Tiznow). Un Ojo's third dam was dual-surface Grade I winner Antespend, acquired by Chester and Mary Bromans' Chestertown Farm for $900,000 as a horse of racing age at the 1997 Keeneland April Sale who became the dam of the Bromans' GI Florida Derby hero Friends Lake (A.P. Indy). Risk a Chance's last listed produce is a 2-year-old colt of this year by Ghostzapper, sire of Southern Equine's 2014 GI Whitney S. winner Moreno.

Saturday, Oaklawn Park
REBEL S.-GII, $1,000,000, Oaklawn, 2-26, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:45.69, ft.
1–UN OJO, 117, g, 3, by Laoban
                1st Dam: Risk a Chance (MSP, $139,825), by A.P. Indy
                2nd Dam: Seeking the Ante, by Seeking the Gold
                3rd Dam: Antespend, by Spend a Buck
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. O-Cypress
Creek Equine LLC; B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (NY); T-Ricky
Courville; J-Ramon A. Vazquez. $600,000. Lifetime Record:
6-2-2-0, $776,321. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus*
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Ethereal Road, 117, c, 3, Quality Road–Sustained, by War
Front. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($90,000
Ylg '20 KEESEP). O-Aaron Sones; B-Paul Pompa (KY); T-D.
Wayne Lukas. $200,000.
3–Barber Road, 117, c, 3, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern
Image. ($15,000 Wlg '19 KEENOV). O-WSS Racing, LLC; B-Susan
Forrester & Judy Curry (KY); T-John Alexander Ortiz. $100,000.
Margins: HF, NO, 1 1/4. Odds: 75.40, 15.80, 6.50.
Also Ran: Kavod, Chasing Time, Newgrange, Dash Attack, Ben Diesel, Stellar Tap, Cairama, Texas Red Hot.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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“It could change, but right now I'm pointing towards the Arkansas Derby,” Diodoro said. “Just being here, not having to ship.”

Second in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity last October and third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile as a maiden, Keepmeinmind rallied from last to graduate in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill in late November. Stabled in Hot Springs since December, the colt was to have made his sophomore debut in the GIII Southwest S., but when that race was pushed back by nearly two weeks due to extreme winter weather, Diodoro elected to wait for the GII Rebel S. Mar. 13. Keepmeinmind finished sixth, beaten eight lengths, behind undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' Concert Tour (Street Sense).

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Concert Tour earned his 'Rising Star' badge with a front-running 3 1/2-length score going six panels at Santa Anita Jan. 15. The bay defeated barnmate and recent GIII Withers S. third-place finisher Freedom Fighter (Violence) next out in the seven-furlong GII San Vicente S. there Feb. 6, earning a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. He prepped for this with a bullet six panels in 1:11 2/5 (1/11) at Santa Anita Mar. 6.

Away alertly in this first try around two turns, the 8-5 second-choice hustled straight to the front and was joined by 6-5 favorite Caddo River (Hard Spun) heading into the first turn. The chalk was reined in a bit to press from second as Concert Tour clocked a :23.42 first quarter under a quiet ride from Joel Rosario. Caddo River tugged at his pilot, who reminded him to be patient, as the pacesetter put up a half in :47.53. The Smarty Jones S. victor turned up the heat on the backstretch run, but Concert Tour was still well within himself entering the far turn and had yet to be asked by Rosario. Taking off with ease in the lane, the Gary and Mary West homebred was well clear of his foes by the time Rosario took a peak under his right arm just a few strides later and powered home a 4 1/4-length victor over stablemate Hozier (Pioneerof the Nile). Big Lake (American Pharoah) completed the trifecta and Caddo River faded to fifth.

It was the eighth Rebel victory for Baffert, who also saddled the likes of Lookin at Lucky (2010), The Factor (2011), Secret Circle (2012), Hoppertunity (2014), American Pharoah (2015), Cupid (2016) and Nadal (2020). All of those horses went on to be Grade I winners and stallions. Two of them–American Pharoah and Nadal–went on to win the GI Arkansas Derby in their next start and the latter, of course, followed that with a Triple Crown sweep.

“That was nice, impressive,” Baffert said. “I'm just happy to run one-two. That's pretty huge. I'm just glad they showed up. I just told Rosario he's fast. I know Caddo River's fast. This horse going two turns first out, just play the break and do what you think is right. He's a very, very fast horse. He looked like he was doing it pretty easily, though. They slowed up a little bit down the backside. Joel, you could really tell he was controlling the race. This is a really top horse. I was going to be disappointed if he didn't do what he did today.”

“It was a very good race,” Rosario said. “He broke very good and I just let him go on with it. It was impressive for his first time going two turns.”

Pedigree Notes:

Concert Tour is one of two products of the Wests breeding program on the Derby trail this year. The other is his barnmate Life is Good, who the couple sold to WinStar and China Horse Club for $525,000 at the Keeneland September Sale. The longtime owners were represented by three champion colts in the past five years: 2017 champion 3-year-old male West Coast (Flatter); 2018 champion juvenile colt Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}); and 2019 champion sophomore colt and West homebred Maximum Security (New Year's Day).

The Wests' bloodstock advisor and racing manager Ben Glass purchased Concert Tour's dam Purse Strings for $240,000 at the Keeneland September Sale. Her first foal, the now-4-year-old Catholic Guilt (Hard Spun), was picked up by Donegal Racing for $100,000 at KEESEP. He is winless in seven starts so far in his career, but is entered in the first race at Oaklawn Sunday. Purse Strings failed to get in foal to Distorted Humor after producing Concert Tour, but had a Lookin at Lucky colt Apr. 24 of last year. She was bred back to the Wests' GSW & MGISP American Freedom (Pulpit), who is represented by his first juveniles this year. This is also the female family of champion juvenile filly Stardom Bound (Tapit).

Concert Tour is one of 35 graded victors and 79 black-type scorers for his sire Street Sense. He is also one of 18 graded winners and 42 black-type winners out of a daughter of Tapit. The unbeaten colt is bred on the same cross as GSW & MGISP Air Strike.

Saturday, Oaklawn Park
REBEL S.-GII, $1,000,000, Oaklawn, 3-13, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:43.18, ft.
1–CONCERT TOUR, 117, c, 3, by Street Sense
1st Dam: Purse Strings, by Tapit
2nd Dam: My Red Porsche, by Mt. Livermore
3rd Dam: Wind Chime, by Marfa
O-Gary and Mary West; B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY);
T-Bob Baffert; J-Joel Rosario. $600,000. TDN Rising Star
Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $756,600. TDN Rising Star
Werk Nick Rating: A+++ *Triple Plus* Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Hozier, 117, c, 3, Pioneerof the Nile–Merry Meadow, by
Henny Hughes. ($625,000 Ylg '19 FTSAUG). O-SF Racing LLC,
Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC,
Golconda Stable, Siena Farm LLC and Robert E. Masterson;
B-WinStar Farm, LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. $200,000.
3–Big Lake, 117, c, 3, American Pharoah–Resistivity, by Student
Council. ($250,000 RNA Ylg '19 KEESEP). O-Mike G. Rutherford;
B-Mike G. Rutherford (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen. $100,000.
Margins: 4 1/4, 3/4, 1HF. Odds: 1.70, 18.80, 18.00.
Also Ran: Super Stock, Caddo River, Keepmeinmind, Get Her Number, Twilight Blue.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

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Having (eventually) landed running with champion Essential Quality (Tapit), and with Caddo River (Hard Spun) and Mandaloun (Into Mischief) testing their own credentials over the next eight days, Brad Cox is hoping to win three trials across four weekends. As such, the middle leg of this sequence has the potential to weigh quite significantly in the shifting balance of power at the top of the North American training profession.

Because the man who continues to set the standards, for Cox and everyone else, awaits Caddo River in the GII Rebel S. with a staggering record of seven winners, three seconds and a third from 13 starters since he first shipped here in 2010. And a week after producing an Authentic (Into Mischief) imitation, as it were, here comes Bob Baffert with a doppelganger for Nadal (Blame).

In fact, the evolution of Life Is Good (Into Mischief) and Concert Tour (Street Sense) seems so closely aligned to their predecessors in the barn–November maiden at Del Mar/GIII Sham/GII San Felipe for one; January maiden at Santa Anita/GII San Vicente/GII Rebel for the other–that we have to remind ourselves that these are different individuals, setting their trainer fresh challenges.

That said, when Baffert sticks to a formula it's because he has made it work. Certainly he has changed the way trainers think about the Triple Crown trail, having proved that his adolescent racehorses don't need the kind of grounding once considered essential. No doubt that reflects the experience his horses instead derive from the aggressive, speed-oriented works he imported from Quarter Horse training, often giving his better horses the chance to hone their velocity and confidence with a “punchbag.” That's exactly what Baffert arranged for Concert Tour the other morning–i.e. an inferior workmate released as a target to run down–and the response was electric.

Baffert has a genius for the fast horse that keeps going: precisely the challenge awaiting Cox with Caddo River on Saturday. The signs are promising, so fluidly has this guy maintained his cruising speed in different scenarios for his last two starts; and remember how his sire held out for second to Street Sense in the Derby, nearly six lengths clear of the third (horse called Curlin) after blazing away early. Street Sense and Hard Spun, of course, have long since shared the same stallion barn so it'll be fun for the Jonabell team to see them carry on their rivalry by proxy here.

Effortless speed is also the trademark of Life Is Good, just as it was with Authentic. And while the Horse of the Year has definitively confirmed their sire's eligibility as a Classic influence, in tandem with the upgrading of his mares, Life Is Good has also shown something of the mental immaturity we saw this time last year. Authentic, crucially, was indulged with a September Derby but this time round the race will, we trust, be run at its customary date. Life Is Good was conspicuously granted a clear run last week and, while he took freakish advantage, we'll have to see whether he will know how to respond when stretching out against 19 hostile rivals.

Life Is Good, who was sold as a yearling, and the homebred Concert Tour are both graduates of a program that notoriously has unfinished business with the GI Kentucky Derby.

In returning to Oaklawn, Gary and Mary West will remember the day their whole Turf adventure hit a different key, 28 years ago, with the 108-1 rock-your-world success of Rockamundo (Key to the Mint) in the Arkansas Derby. That horse was saddled by Ben Glass, who was fortunately persuaded to stay on as racing manager when deciding to quit training a couple of years later. When this team started out, they were claiming horses for $2,500 at places like Grand Island, Nebraska; and, in the convincing testimony of Glass, their experiences on a long road since have cultivated in his patrons exemplary standards of stoicism and attention to welfare.

He remembers when they went to the barns at 5 a.m. to see Buddha (Unbridled's Song) on the eve of the 2002 Derby. This was after the Wests had begun to raise the stakes: Glass had picked him out as a $250,000 yearling, and he had beaten Medaglia d'Oro in the GI Wood Memorial. And here was the second favorite for the Derby emerging from his stall, the morning before the race, holding off his left fore. An immediate scratch. Glass couldn't believe how Gary West took it on the chin. He just shrugged and said: “Well, I'm going back to bed.”

Ben Glass with Gary West | Sid Fernando photo

So the Wests and Glass had seen it all by the time they took Maximum Security (New Year's Day) to Churchill a couple of years ago. Or so they thought. No need, here, to reprise everything that happened then, and subsequently. Suffice to say that a) Thoroughbreds never cease schooling us in adversity; and b) whatever the rights and wrongs of Maximum Security's Derby, and indeed of his trainer at the time, we can all be grateful to the Wests for the priorities driving their program. Because the two races they most covet are the Derby and the Travers, and their investment in the type of Thoroughbred best adapted to those historic measures of the two-turn sophomore will only serve the breed well.

That's why it's always so edifying to review the purchases made by Glass at the September Sale. You won't see him joining the witless stampede for rookie sires whose averages will almost invariably never be so high again. Last year, he bought 15 colts catalogued from 29 to 2186, for between $65,000 and $360,000: two apiece by Blame, Distorted Humor, Flatter, Street Sense and Union Rags; plus one by Candy Ride (Arg), Empire Maker, Ghostzapper, Quality Road and Uncle Mo.

'TDN Rising Star' Concert Tour upon arrival at Oaklawn this week | Coady

Concert Tour is out of a Tapit mare, giving the Gainesway phenomenon yet another foothold in this year's Derby quest. So, again like Nadal, he looks bred to relish this second turn after showing his raw class sprinting. Certainly the Wests will be hoping to efface that nose defeat for their reappearing champion Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}) in this race two years ago.

Game Winner subsequently passed the post sixth in the Derby, after a messy trip. That kind of thing rather goes with the territory, you would say, and let's hope nobody congratulated his owners on his promotion to fifth. Unfortunately Game Winner only managed one more start, though kept in training at four; but even that was one more than Buddha, after he was found to be lame that Friday morning. To that extent, we must hope that Concert Tour ceases to impersonate Nadal after the Arkansas Derby. Because you can safely say that this would be a Rebel winner with a cause.

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