1) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,504,100. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

Right now there's a court showdown in Kentucky initiated by Muth's owner, Amr Zedan, to try and get this son of Good Magic ($190,000 KEESEP, $2 million OBSMAR) eligible to start in the Derby despite a corporate ban by Churchill Downs against Bob Baffert's trainees.

This 'TDN Rising Star' and winner of the GI Arkansas Derby would be among the favorites if he were granted access to the gate in Louisville. Otherwise, Baffert has indicated Muth is on target for the GI Preakness S.

Muth reacted professionally to two disruptive attempts in the early stages of the Arkansas Derby. Off as the 2.3-1 second choice, he showed good speed early, then Juan Hernandez conceded the lead when a 26-1 shot slipped through at the rail. When 11-10 favorite Timberlake (Into Mischief) unexpectedly accelerated between rivals at the 6 ½-furlong pole to seize the lead, Muth shadowed him about a length back while not expending much energy in doing so.

Muth began to gather serious momentum 3 ½ furlongs out, and opened up under a hand ride past his spent rival. Muth was then kept to task by Hernandez in the stretch to win by two lengths over Just Steel (Justify), and at no point did he appear to be scraping the bottom of his stamina reserves.

Muth has four wins and a pair of seconds from six lifetime races since breaking his maiden way back on June 18. He was second in the GIII Best Pal S., first in the GI American Pharoah S., second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then a winner in the GII San Vicente S. prior to his tally at Oaklawn.

2) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-3-1-0, $918,000. Last start: WON Apr. 6 GI Blue Grass S.

When speed figures get adjusted several races after those numbers were initially assigned, it squares away potential inaccuracies moving forward. But this process of revising numerical ratings also can give horseplayers fits, because the changes can significantly alter one's perception of the overall pecking order.

A case in point was last week's Beyer Speed Figure change for Sierra Leone. After this $2.3 million FTSAUG sale-topper earned a 98 in winning the Apr. 6 GI Blue Grass S., Andrew Beyer told Daily Racing Form's David Grening that the colt's winning figure for the GII Risen Star S. would be upgraded from 90 to 95, and that all the horses who finished behind Sierra Leone would also be get a five-point boost.

“The Fair Grounds track was sloppy on Feb. 17, and may have been getting slower when the Risen Star was run,” Beyer told DRF. “Moreover, the pace of the Risen Star was slow enough to hinder horses from running a fast final time.

“The subsequent performances of horses in the field demonstrated that our initial figure was too low,” Beyer explained. “Three of the top five finishers all came back to win important stakes, and all five of these horses earned speed figures five or more points higher than their published numbers for the Risen Star.”

So Sierra Leone's career Beyer arc now reads 71-91-95-98 instead of 71-91-90-98.

The betting public's assessment of Gun Runner-sired 'TDN Rising Star' probably won't change all that much because of how the numbers paint him. He's capable of making one sustained run from five furlongs out, and as the Derby's best-credentialed closer, Sierra Leone will vie for favoritism with 2-year-old champ and fellow 'Rising Star' Fierceness, who projects to be a pacemaker.

3) FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) (c, Reel Steel {Jpn}–Forever Darling, by Congrats). O-Susumu Fujita; B-Northern Racing; T-Yoshito Yahagi. Sales History: ¥98,000,000 Ylg '22 JRHAJUL. Lifetime Record: 5-5-0-0, $2,049,451. Last start: WON Mar. 30 G2 UAE Derby.

The 5-for-5 Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) arrived at Churchill Downs on Saturday, then jogged in the one-mile chute for about 20 minutes before taking a 1 1/8-mile gallop Sunday.

This Yoshito Yahagi trainee, who sold for the equivalent of $720,603 at the JRHA Select Yearling and Foal sale, has earned the distinction of being the most credible foreign threat in the Derby since the advent of the points qualifying system.

Forever Young's victory in the G2 UAE Derby over 1900 meters stamped him as an A-lister based on his ground-conceding outside trip that featured deft shifting into consecutively higher gears and a confident drawing-away in the stretch.

Although there were only four dirt races on the G1 Dubai World Cup card at Meydan that day, two of them were blowout wins by speed horses who rode the rail, suggesting that the wide-all-the-way run by Forever Young could have been against the grain of the way the track was playing.

This colt's chances in the Derby will be augmented if jockey Ryusei Sakai can carve out a stalking trip that utilizes Forever Young's tactical speed to put him somewhere in the first flight or just behind it. Although he has come from farther back in several of his victories, rating from way off the tailgate in a 20-horse Derby doesn't seem like the most effective use of his cruising ability.

4) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, MGISW, 5-3-0-1, $1,703,850. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Curlin Florida Derby.

Now that all the speed-figure cards for the Derby are face-up on the table, the 110 Beyer awarded to 'TDN Rising Star' and 2-year-old champ Fierceness for his GI Florida Derby win stands atop the crop.

The chief question for handicappers though, is whether you think this Repole Stable homebred by City of Light can replicate or better that gaudy number in the Derby. It was earned under ideal circumstances in a 13 1/4 -length blowout against no other horses currently ranked among TDN's Top 20 sophomores.

A few weeks back the Derby was shaping up as a race lacking strong early speed horses. Now that vacuum has been theoretically filled, with Fierceness, Track Phantom (Quality Road), Dornoch (Good Magic), T O Password (JPN) (Copano Rickey (JPN)), and possibly Encino (Nyquist) all likely to want a say in the early fray.

When Fierceness is on his game, he is one of the most dangerous colts in the division. But excelling under adversity has not been his strong suit, with two baffling, odds-on losses in the GI Champagne S. and GIII Holy Bull S. offsetting resounding scores in his Saratoga unveiling, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and the Florida Derby.

5) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L and N Racing LLC, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-2-1, $405,000. Last start: 4th in Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

I always try to rate “how he did it” over “how fast” when handicapping. But in Track Phantom's case, even though I've consistently liked the way he's gone about his business when challenges have been thrown in his path, I still have nagging doubts about whether this colt is truly fast enough to be able to pull off a Derby win.

This $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road has handled different types of pace pressure despite being routinely drawn in or near the outside stall. He has engaged in several hard-fought stretch battles, and has run well over two different types of wet tracks at Fair Grounds and Churchill.

Even his beaten-fave fourth-place try after setting a moderate pace in the GII Louisiana Derby wasn't as bad as it might seem. Closers stacked up five across the lane behind Track Phantom at the top of the stretch, yet he didn't capitulate until the sixteenth pole.

Track Phantom isn't a flashy sort, but you have to give him points for consistency. Getting out of the gate is crucial in the Derby. This colt has been on the lead at the first call in five of his seven lifetime races, and in the two others he was second, just a head behind.

Trainer Steve Asmussen will try blinkers on Track Phantom for the Derby. After pairing 94 Beyers in his last two efforts, he'll need about a 10-point improvement to win.

Dornoch is the full-brother to Derby winner Mage | Ryan Thompson

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-2-0, $552,275. Last start: 4th in the GI Blue Grass S. Apr. 6.

Dornoch has lost some steam in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools, going from 9-1 in February to 12-1 in March to 15-1 in April.

Although this son of Good Magic has cachet because he is a full brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, his no-impact fourth in the Blue Grass S. wasn't an emphatic enough of a final prep to stamp him as a major contender.

Although I wouldn't recommend singling Dornoch, it wouldn't be prudent to eliminate him off your Derby tickets entirely. Trainer Danny Gargan was asking this $325,000 KEESEP colt to change tactics by rating from behind horses in the Blue Grass, and after conceding that bit of schooling didn't work out, he said Luis Saez will be instructed just to let Dornoch roll from the gate in the Derby.

Gargan has spent the winter at Palm Meadows trying to get the brawny-framed Dornoch to maintain a keen sense of focus. If the figurative lightbulb clicks on in the Derby, look out.

7) JUST A TOUCH (c, Justify-Touching Beauty, by Tapit) O-Qatar Racing LLC, Resolute Racing & Marc Detampel; B-Don Alberto Corp. (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $170,000 RNA '22 KEESEP; $125,000 yrl '22 FTKOCT; $300,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $281,700. Last start: 2nd in GI Blue Grass S. Apr. 6.

Just a Touch deserves praise for what he has accomplished in only three starts. But since his second-place effort in the Blue Grass S., his bandwagon has become crowded enough to warrant a reality check. Are Derby prognosticators “reaching” for a horse who has yet to truly peak?

In the Blue Grass, this Brad Cox-trained colt ($170,000 RNA KEESEP, $125,000 FTKOCT, $300,000 OBSAPR) pressed a rapid pace, then gained control of the lead from the three-sixteenths marker until just before the sixteenth pole. He was no match for the locomotive-like close of Sierra Leone, but he didn't pack it in, and after being beaten only 1 ½ lengths, galloped out well.

Prior to that, Just a Touch broke his maiden by 4 ½ lengths sprinting at Fair Grounds Jan. 27, then was a wide but willing second in the Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct, both in the slop.

The post-Blue Grass reasoning has focused on how if Just a Touch could deliver such a good showing in only his first race around two turns and in his first race on a dry track, he just might be capable of turning in the over-the-top effort he will need to win the Derby, which will be run one day prior to his third birthdate.

From 1900 to the present, 26 horses have attempted to win the Kentucky Derby with exactly three lifetime starts. Only four have won: Mage in 2023, Justify in 2018, Big Brown in 2008 and Regret in 1915. Beyond those four, only one of the remaining 22 managed to hit the board (Curlin, third in 2007).

Just a Touch's sire, Justify, in 2018 became the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without having raced at age two. Mage then triumphed over the “Apollo curse” in 2023. But the record of horses in the Derby without a race at age two since 1937 is 2-3-5 from 73 starts.

8) ENCINO (c, Nyquist–Glittering Jewel, by Bernardini) O-Godolphin LLC; B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 4-3-1-0, $378,315. Last Start: WON GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. Apr. 13.

Encino (Nyquist) is a legit wild card if he goes in the Derby. He's in sharp form with three straight wins and a Beyer pattern that keeps improving. Yet he's taken an unconventional path to the Triple Crown level, pairing stakes victories in the John Battaglia Memorial S. over Tapeta at Turfway and wiring the GIII Lexington S. over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles.

Speed and the rail have produced favorable results this spring at Keeneland, and this Godolphin homebred had little trouble establishing himself at the head of affairs in his first dirt try, rattling off unopposed opening quarter-mile splits of :23.53 and :23.73.

Encino responded when roused to swat back the race's only true challenger. But it's not entirely clear if the three-quarter length win (94 Beyer) was more attributable to Encino's fighting spirit or the inability of The Wine Steward (Vino Rosso) to seal the deal off a six-month layoff. The rest of the field was 8 ¼ lengths back.

Encino could end up being an intriguing wiseguy play in a year where the success of the two obvious Derby favorites (Fierceness and Sierra Leone) hinges upon whether they get the right pace and/or trips, and the next two logical horses in the betting (Just a Touch and Forever Young) still haven't won American dirt stakes.

9) IMAGINATION (c, Into Mischief–Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan & Tom Ryan; B-Peter Blum Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,050,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $406,800. Last start: 2nd in the GI Santa Anita Derby Apr. 6.

No next start has been publicly disclosed for Imagination (Into Mischief), a Bob Baffert trainee who was most recently second in the GI Santa Anita Derby.

This $1.05-million KEESEP colt has been battle-tested by hooking up in prolonged late-race fights in three straight races. Even though he didn't come out on the winning end of all of those stretch tussles, it's the type of experience that will stand him in good stead at the Triple Crown level.

Imagination is now 2-4-0 from six lifetime starts, which include five two-turn races.

10) RESILIENCE (c, Into Mischief-Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike) O-Emily Bushnell & Ric Waldman; B-Pam & Martin Wygod (KY); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-1, $494,630. Last start: WON Apr. 6 GI Wood Memorial S.

The GII Wood Memorial S. win didn't appear to be an overlay demanding race for Resilience, and he does exit the most obvious key race among the points-awarding winter preps. Prior to his blinkers-on score in the Wood, he ran fourth in the Risen Star S., from which the first- and third-place finishers, Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom (Constitution) also won graded stakes in their next starts.

It took Resilience four starts to break his maiden. But the horses who won those first three at Saratoga and Churchill all eventually became stakes winners, so this colt gets points for taking a path to Louisville that has been laden with legit competition.

The question is whether this Bill Mott trainee is going take another leap forward (a small step won't do it) in Louisville.

11) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $877,350. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

This medium-framed $575,000 KEESEP colt by Constitution from Brad Cox's barn waited patiently at the back behind a moderate tempo in the Louisiana Derby, then unwound 2 1/2 furlongs out and fanned 12 wide into the lane. He ran straight and reeled in his targets, but for the most part was passing horses who had already made their major moves in upper stretch.

The win returned a 97 Beyer, building on a previous upward trend of 72-77-87-92.

Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby: Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924.

12) JUST STEEL (c, Justify–Irish Lights {Aus}, by Fastnet Rock {Aus}). O-BC Stables, LLC; B-Summerhill Farm (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Sales History: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 11-2-4-1, $724,545. Last start: 2nd Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

It's at this juncture within the Top 20 that we have to realistically start considering every Derby aspirant from Just Steel on down to be “chaos contenders.” In other words, a lot of things would have to go wrong, tactics-wise, with almost all of the projected favorites, and a lot of things would have to go right for these longer shots to envision one of them wearing a blanket of roses.

Yet it happens. Just ask Rich Strike (Keen Ice), the 80-1 Derby winner from two years ago.

This $500,000 KEESEP colt trained by D. Wayne Lukas already has 11 races of experience, and on three occasions at age three he's finished second around two turns in points-awarding Derby prep stakes. The one time he didn't, Just Steel was five wide round both turns in the GII Rebel S.

In the Arkansas Derby, Just Steel raced close to the pace throughout and finished only two workmanlike lengths behind No. 1-ranked Muth.

Potentially rounding out the Derby starting gate…

13) Domestic Product (Practical Joke)
Last week on the TDN Writers' Room podcast, trainer Chad Brown made a cogent case for this Klaravich Stables homebred to be “an under-the-radar real contender for the Derby” with a switch to jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. because Tyler Gaffalione is committed to No.2-ranked Sierra Leone.

Brown said he expected big things out of this son of Practical Joke in his Saratoga sprint debut, but attributed the subpar fifth to the colt getting pelted with dirt kickback. Domestic Product then missed some training, and although Brown doesn't usually like to run a 2-year-old at nine furlongs off just one six-furlong start, he did so on Oct. 27 and the result was a 4 1/2-length win at Aqueduct.

Brown said the muddy track was the primary reason for Domestic Product's poor seventh-place showing in the GII Remsen S., adding that a similarly wet track could be a problem if the rains come on Derby Day.

But, Brown added, Domestic Product's second in the GII Holy Bull S. and win in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby both were promising considering the colt closed into very slow paces in both races.

After the Tampa Derby, Brown said Gaffalione told him that Domestic Product is “not that far behind” Sierra Leone. “Going a mile and a quarter, they're not as much separating these two horses as you think,” the jockey told him.

“So I trust [Gaffalione],” Brown said. “I think taking the blinkers off of this horse was a positive move for him in his last two starts.”

14) Mystik Dan (Goldencents)
In the Arkansas Derby, this homebred son of Goldencents for owners Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby and 4G Racing didn't live up to his 101-Beyer winning, wet-track form from the GIII Southwest S. He was carried wide and encountered a bit of trip trouble, and ended up third, beaten 6 ½ lengths in his nine-furlong debut.

Throughout this colt's campaign, trainer Kenny McPeek has emphasized that Mystik Dan has a good mind and an easygoing attitude, both of which can be more valuable than what's on paper in his past performances.

McPeek said after a Saturday workout that Mystik Dan “got a lot” out of the Arkansas Derby “and has shown he handled it well in his training after.”

Co-owner Eric Waller, left, leads Stronghold and jockey Antonio Fresu into the winner's circle after their victory in the GI Santa Anita Derby | Benoit

15) Stronghold (Ghostzapper)
Stronghold is one of the more mature Derby aspirants, showing an ability to relax out of the gate, be responsive to his rider's cues to engage, and win stretch battles even after getting in front and then briefly losing the lead.

This Ghostzapper-sired homebred for Rick and Sharon Waller necked Imagination in the Santa Anita Derby. He earned an 89 Beyer, the same figure as his score in the GIII Sunland Derby Feb. 18. Those have been his only two starts at age three.

Although currently based in Southern California with trainer Phil D'Amato, Stronghold has already won over the Churchill surface. His one-turn-mile maiden victory back on Oct. 1 is notable because the second- and third-place finishers, Resilience and Track Phantom, are both currently ranked ahead of him on this list.

16) Endlessly (Oscar Performance)
Endlessly, whose six races thus far been all on either turf or Tapeta, is aiming for a May 4 start at Churchill. But trainer Michael McCarthy still hasn't zeroed in on whether that will be in the Kentucky Derby or the GII American Turf S.

This son of Oscar Performance won the Mar. 23 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. by four lengths with a complete-control outside move that outclassed the field.

Endlessly has won five races total, and his only loss is much better than it looks. This homebred for Amerman Racing was eighth, but beaten only 3 1/2 lengths, in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

17) Honor Marie (Honor Code)
This $40,000 KEESEP colt by Honor Code turns three on Derby Day. Although a touch behind his peers age-wise, Honor Marie does have the benefit of having won a two-turn stakes at Churchill at age two, the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Trainer Whit Beckman is on record as saying that the 10-fulrong distance, “if not farther” might end up being Honor Marie's sweet spot.

He was most recently third in the Louisiana Derby with a seven wide bid from the back of the pack.

18) Society Man (Good Magic)
This $85,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic chased without making an impact in his July 22 Saratoga sprint debut, then resurfaced seven months later at Aqueduct tasked with nine furlongs.

Society Man was bumped at the break and wide on the turns when third in that try, then had a nearly identical trouble line when attempting stakes company as a maiden in the muddy GIII Withers S.

He was difficult to load but delivered in a one-turn maiden mile Mar 9 in New York (also in the mud), then was a best-of-the-rest second at 106-1 odds behind Resilience in the Wood Memorial.

A plus is three races of experience at nine furlongs.

19) West Saratoga (Exaggerator)
As an $11,000 KEESEP bargain who has already bankrolled more than 40 times his purchase price in purses, this Larry Demeritte trainee deserves kudos for overachievement.

But despite running decently in several lower-profile stakes this season, West Saratoga (Exaggerator) hasn't hit the winner's circle since he registered a mild 12-1 upset in the Sept. 16  GIII Iroquois  S., a one-turn mile at Churchill.

This gray is also behind numbers-wise, with an 85 Beyer earned over Tapeta in his runner-up Jeff Ruby Steaks S. effort his career best.

West Saratoga's consistent tactical speed, which he's utilized to be within striking distance of the mid-race leaders in every single one of his 10 starts, could be an asset in the Derby.

20) T O Password (Jpn) (Copano Rickey {Jpn})
The “T O” in T O Password (Jpn) is a naming convention for horses owned by Tomoya Ozasa. This is a forward-running colt by Japanese champion dirt horse Copano Rickey (Jpn).

T O Password is a May 20 foal who did not make his debut until Jan. 6 at Kyoto in an 1,800-meter (about nine furlongs) maiden race. As the second favorite in the betting, he pressed a moderate pace and shook free over the final three furlongs to draw away by two lengths.

In the Mar. 23 1,800-meter Fukuryu S., this 13-1 Daisuke Takayanagi trainee went straight to the lead but tired late. He would have been nailed in the final jump by an onrushing closer had he not been saved by the wire.

T O Password figures to be a long-shot proposition north of 50-1 in the Derby. However, his tactics under Kazushi Kimura (Woodbine's leading rider last year) could play a major role in how the pace unfolds.

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Conditioned by Yoshito Yahagi and under rider Yusaku Oka, the colt jogged in the one-mile chute for about 20 minutes before taking a 1 1/8-mile gallop in the early hours.

Shortly after at 7:30am, GSW Honor Marie (Honor Code) worked in company with stablemate Anthem King (Bolt d'Oro), the pair breezing a half-mile in :48.80 with the former claiming a slight edge passing the wire. He galloped out five furlongs in 1:02.

“He did it the right way, easily,” trainer Whit Beckman said. “We didn't want to do a ton this week and he seemed to do it well. He's the type of horse that will always do what you ask of him. I always thought it was good to have a workmate next to him, to just give him a little encouragement.”

Other contenders who went through their paces on track Sunday morning include GSW Track Phantom (Quality Road), MGSW Dornoch (Good Magic), and GSP Society Man (Good Magic) while D. Wayne Lukas's SW & GISP Just Steel (Justify) is expected to have his first training session over the Churchill Downs surface, since winning the local Ed Brown S. last November, Monday morning.

The post Forever Young Takes First Churchill Gallop, Honor Marie Breezes appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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But it's for precisely that reason that European breeze-up consignors have increasingly been able to repair a dismal separation between the gene pools either side of the Atlantic. It doesn't matter if European buyers haven't even heard of a stallion, so long as they can piggyback the expertise of these exceptional judges who sieve the American market for a horse with the right mechanics.

Of course, it does no harm if the page has some green streaks, whether in Europe or on turf in the U.S. But maybe the spectacular impact of Justify, following that made by his own sire, may help a few people remember how the European breed was once energized by Northern Dancer and his sons.

Even if that is only an incipient awakening, then the sheer volume of American stock in the Arqana Breeze-Up Sale—48 individual entries from 34 different American-based sires–will guarantee plenty of competition even among those who will be coming to Deauville (May 9 breeze show, May 11 auction) in the hope of repatriating Kentucky horses broken in by European horsemen.

That was the case six years ago when Norman Williamson of Oak Tree Farm sold a War Front colt, a $175,000 RNA at Keeneland the previous September, to Justin Casse for €250,000. Taken back to his native land, he became GI Preakness winner War Of Will—and now brings thing full circle with a member of his first crop featuring as Hip 177.

Little wonder, then, if the Arqana management is so eager to encourage American participation in this most cosmopolitan of catalogues. As Arqana's Executive Director Freddy Powell notes, this relatively boutique sale has drawn no fewer than seven members of Justify's third crop—compared with eight in the imminent OBS Sale that encompasses four times as many lots.

There are seven sons and daughters of Justify catalogued at Arqana | Sarah Andrew photo

“I wouldn't say we deliberately target American sires,” says Powell, “but I would say that our vendors who are used to buying in America quite like the Deauville track. We go left-handed, it's a flat track, and I think it's something that naturally makes sense for an American horse. We're a little bit later in the year, but the chance is there is going to be better ground. I think more than anything, it just makes sense. As we know, pinhookers like things that make sense.”

Last year's repatriated graduates already include West Point Thoroughbreds' Stretch Ride (Street Sense), third in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club last fall.

But while some pretty flashy pages will inevitably be struck out the moment the time sheets come through, from their catalogue pages alone, here is an early look at 12 offerings that will have obvious resonance for American visitors.

Lot 7, c, Uncle Mo—Tocco d'Amore (Ire), MC Thoroughbreds

MC Thoroughbreds offers Europeans a familiar page through a colt bought for just $30,000 at Keeneland. That's a startling sum on paper for a son of Uncle Mo out of Tocco d'Amore (Raven's Pass), who had cost Moyglare Stud €2 million as a yearling and won her only two starts including a 12f Listed race at Naas. She represents a famous Kilcarn Stud family as half-sister to five-time Group winner Echo Of Light (GB) (Dubai Millennium {GB}) out of champion Salsabil (GB)'s Group 2-placed sister Spirit Of Tara (Ire) (Sadler's Wells).

Lot 13, c, Maclean's Music—Unreachable, Powerstown Stud

Powerstown Stud's draft has an especially strong Bluegrass tint and features a very bold KeeSep pinhook in a $310,000 Maclean's Music half-brother [13] to Lemon Pop (Lemon Drop Kid), a dual Group 1 winner in Japan. It all makes sense, though, when you look at his dam, a once-raced daughter of Giant's Causeway out of Harpia (Danzig), a graded stakes-winning sister to Danehill himself. He's a May foal but bred to be anything.

Lot 14, c, Justify—Unrivaled Princess, Leamore Horses

That colt is followed into the ring by another with an aristocratic page: the first Justify on parade, presented by Leamore Horses after being recruited by Chad Schumer for $105,000 at Fasig-Tipton last October. He's out of an unraced sister to triple Grade I-winning millionaire Unique Bella (Tapit), their dam of course being GI Ladies' Classic winner Unrivaled Belle (Unbridled's Song). This family continues to thrive, with the latter's half-sister having produced a leading sophomore last year in Raise Cain (Violence). The mare's first foal, a filly by Medaglia d'Oro, was retained by breeders Whisper Hill Farm and recently broke her maiden by 9 ½ lengths.

Lot 40, c, McKinzie—Belle's Finale, Malcolm Bastard

A real standout on paper is the McKinzie half-brother to none other than Up to the Mark (Not This Time) offered by Malcolm Bastard. This fellow contributed $200,000 to his sire's impressive debut at the yearling sales when exported from Fasig-Tipton last October.

Lot 55, c, Not This Time—Cloudy Dancer (GB), Gaybrook Lodge

Not This Time—now looking the principal heir to Giant's Causeway—has a suitably versatile prospect in a colt out of an unraced Invincible Spirit (Ire) half-sister to Royal Ascot winner/Classic runner-up Gale Force Ten (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}) from Gaybrook Lodge. This colt was alertly exported for $62,000 at Keeneland, in that he represents a coveted family in Europe: the next dam is a Listed winner out of a half-sister to fillies that respectively ran first and second in the G1 Moyglare Stud S. before subsequently delivering Group 1 winners and/or producers.

Lot 61, c, Tiz The Law—Cozze Up Lady, Powerstown Stud

There will be much curiosity about the breeze of Hip 61, a colt from the debut crop of Tiz The Law who appears well found by Powerstown Stud at Fasig last fall for $60,000. That's because his half-sister Kimari (Munnings) has made headlines on both sides of the ocean: she won a Keeneland maiden on debut by 15 lengths, and was then thwarted only in a photo for the G2 Queen Mary S. She again finished second at Royal Ascot the following year, this time at Group 1 level, before returning home to win the GI Madison S. back on dirt. On retirement she was bought by Coolmore for $2.7 million, and her half-brother by Constitution made $1.3 million as a yearling, so any sign of athletic ability in this colt will make him hot property.

Lot 62, Justify—Curlylocks (Ire), Lynn Lodge Stud

But there probably isn't a page in the catalogue to surpass the next into the ring: a February 2 colt by Justify out of a lightly-raced sister to Churchill (Ire) and Clemmie (Ire). The latter was the first Group 1 winner by Galileo (Ire) over six furlongs, tapping into the speed of her stakes-winning dam Meow (Ire) (Storm Cat) and granddam Airwave (GB) (Air Express {Ire}), a special conduit of indigenous British speed. If he can run at all, this lad will prove a characteristically inspired Mags O'Toole punt at Keeneland for $135,000.

Lot 63, c, Omaha Beach—Dad's Princess, Oak Tree Farm

Her colleague Norman Williamson of Oak Tree Farm presents another fascinating Keeneland import immediately afterwards. This Omaha Beach colt has already landed one knockout pinhook, Williamson having given $150,000 for him nine months after he made just $6,000 as a short yearling in the same ring.

Lot 64, f, Justify—Damson (Ire), Kilminfoyle House Stud

The Americans are obviously intended to stick around, as next into the ring is another that could cause a transatlantic tug-of-war: a January filly by Justify out of elite runner and producer Damson (Ire) (Entrepreneur {GB}), subject of a $155,000 docket at Keeneland and presented here by Kilminfoyle House Stud.  Damson, who beat colts in the G1 Phoenix S. at two, produced another flying juvenile in Requinto (Ire) (Dansili {GB}) but there's also Aga Khan depth to the further family.

Lot 136, c, Quality Road—Love Child, Longways Stables

Longways Stables went to $150,000 at Keeneland for a Quality Road colt. The mare's first foal by the same sire is a winner, but the key here is that she's out of a lightly raced sister to none other than Serena's Song (Rahy), who has demonstrated due genetic prowess in delivering not only a multiple graded stakes winner on turf in Doubles Partner (Rock Hard Ten), but also the fertile producer Princess Serena (Unbridled's Song), dam of three Group 1 and/or Group 2 winners and second dam of two others.

Lot 147, c, Bernardini—Morilles (GB), Gaybrook Lodge

Gaybrook Lodge offers a colt from the final crop of Bernardini pinhooked for $62,000 at Fasig October. He's out of a Montjeu (Ire) half-sister to graded stakes winner Indy Groove (A.P. Indy), their own dam a sibling to GI Super Derby winner Home At Last (Quadratic).

Lot 177, c, War Of Will—Promenade Review, C. F. Bloodstock

War Of Will, poster boy for this sale, should definitely interest European breeders with the genes he's now recycling at Claiborne. But meanwhile C.F. Bloodstock has brought over a colt from his first crop, unearthed at Fasig last October for $50,000. He's the second foal of a lightly raced half-sister to Promenade Girl (Carson City), winner of the GII Molly Pitcher and dam of triple Grade I winner Cavorting (Bernardini)—herself meanwhile celebrated as mother of Clariere (Curlin).

But Powell said he felt that there was much more on offer for Americans than American blood.

Of the 207 catalogued, he said, “There are 65 fillies in total, some very well-bred ones by typical European sires that could do well in the U.S. A Frankel (GB) filly (lot 60), two fillies by Kameko (164 and 178), a young, multiple graded-stakes winning son of Kitten's Joy; and fillies by Lope De Vega, No Nay Never, and similar stallions who could appeal to American trainers or owners or people who want to add a bit of European blood to their broodmare band.”

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13.25 Naas, Mdn, €16,000, 3yo f, 8fT
FLEETINGLY (Justify) is the third foal out of the G1 Falmouth S., G1 Matron S. and G1 Sun Chariot S. heroine Alice Springs (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), who has already produced the group 3-placed Prettiest (Dubawi {Ire}) and Canute (Quality Road) who looked a promising type last term before being fatally injured at Royal Ascot. Aidan O'Brien introduces her in a 10-runner affair in the race he has won in the last three years with Galileo's future Classic winners Empress Josephine (Ire) and Tuesday (Ire) and group 3 winner and G1 Prix de l'Opera runner-up Jackie Oh (Ire).

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Over the next three weekends, there will be eight “Championship Series” races that will award Derby points to the top five finishers on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale.

Drawn widest of all in post 12, GIII Lecomte S. Jan. 20 winner and GII Risen Star S. Feb. 17 runner-up Track Phantom (Quality Road) looks like the one to catch in the Louisiana Derby. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen will also saddle $1.4-million Fasig-Tipton Saratoga graduate and 'TDN Rising Star' Hall of Fame (Gun Runner), who disappointed in seventh over the sloppy going in the Risen Star.

“I generally believe for 3-year-olds, your last race is not good enough for your next one to be,” Asmussen said. “That's the way it ought to be. (Track Phantom) is a wonderful horse. I'm very fortunate to have him here at Fair Grounds for the 3-year-old series. He has run extremely well in the three prior races here at Fair Grounds. Hopefully, we can get him in the winner's circle again Saturday.”

'TDN Rising Star' Agate Road (Quality Road), winner of last term's grassy GII Pilgrim S. and a rallying second in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Feb. 10, opts for this spot over the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher will also be represented by Antiquarian (Preservationist), a local maiden winner at second asking over promising next-out winner Cornishman (Curlin) Feb. 17.

The field for the Louisiana Derby also includes: the Brad Cox-trained Smarty Jones S. Jan. 1 winner and Risen Star third Catching Freedom (Constitution); longshot GII Rebel S. Feb. 24 runner-up Common Defense (Karakontie {Jpn}); and 'TDN Rising Star' Tuscan Gold (Medaglia d'Oro), a runaway maiden winner for Chad Brown at second asking at Gulfstream Jan. 31.

Endlessly (Oscar Performance), the 5-2 morning-line favorite and horse to beat in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, was a good-looking winner of the El Camino Real Derby over the Golden Gate all-weather Feb. 10. A two-time graded winner on grass in Southern California last year, Endlessly was eighth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita Nov. 3.

“We tried to give him a short break after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, but he's a feel-good type of horse,” trainer Michael McCarthy said. “He likes to train and we were able to get him back slowly after that race to the El Camino Real Derby.”

The loaded 12-race Louisiana Derby card also includes: the GII Fair Grounds Oaks, headed by GII Rachel Alexandra S. Feb. 17 one-two 'TDN Rising Star' Tarifa (Bernardini) and Intricate (Gun Runner) and the two-for-two Our Pretty Woman (Medaglia d'Oro); and the GII New Orleans Classic S. and GII Muniz Memorial Classic S.

Saturday's graded action is rounded out by the GIII Essex H. at Oaklawn Park, the GIII TwinSpires Kentucky Cup Classic S. at Turfway and the GIII San Luis Rey S. at Santa Anita.

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Successful in the G3 Killavullan S. in 2022 for the Coolmore partners and trainer Aidan O'Brien, the bay was second in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas to Paddington (GB) (Siyouni {Fr}) last May. He kick-started his 4-year-old campaign in his 10th lifetime start with a close runner-up effort in the $500,000 Listed Irish Marketing Cup in Doha, Qatar, in February. The son of listed winner Cuff (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) and great grandson of blue hen producer Rafha (GB) (Kris {GB}) is pointing to the 1800-metre G1 Dubai Turf on Mar. 30.

“Cairo ran very well on his first start of 2024 in Doha last month and it's intended that he represent his new owner Mr Refai Alghuraban and his family in the Dubai Turf at Meydan on World Cup night,” McStay said. “Cairo is an extremely well-bred horse who has some excellent form, particularly his run behind Paddington (GB) in the Irish 2000 Guineas last season. As always, it's a very strong renewal of the Dubai Turf, but we're very hopeful for a big run in his new owner's colours. Mr Alghuraban is a leading owner in the gulf region.”

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“Brad is saying that he wants to go to the Ashland with her next, which she would have to do and perform well there to get to the Oaks,” Juddmonte USA General Manager Garrett O'Rourke said.

Brad, of course, is two-time GI Kentucky Oaks-winning trainer Brad Cox (Monomoy Girl 2018 & Shedaresthedevil 2020).

“If things don't go right, there's no pressure to keep moving forward,” O'Rourke continued. “If they do go right, well, it sets her up, you know? We'll see what happens.”

Betting on the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager totaled $69,717 ($48,334 in the win pool and $21,384 in exactas). Last year's champion 2-year-old filly Just F Y I (Justify), unraced since capping her perfect season with a win in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita, closed as the second choice at 8-1. Just F Y I was scratched due to a fever just hours before what was to be her much-anticipated 3-year-old debut for Bill Mott in the GII Davona Dale S. at Gulfstream Mar. 2.

“Obviously, look, I was a little surprised that's the way people bet it,” O'Rourke said. “It puts the pressure on when I saw that she was favored.”

O'Rourke added with a big laugh, “Also, remember, it wasn't a huge pool, so it only would've taken one or two of Brad's exercise boys to just put a few bets on her and ruin the price for the rest of us.”

Impel earned her 'Rising Star' badge with a visually impressive debut victory at a generous 7-2 sprinting at Fair Grounds Jan. 1. She aced her two-turn test with an explosive stalk-and-pounce 8 1/2-length victory in a deep optional claimer going 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park Mar. 3. She earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in the latter. Impel returned to the worktab with a four-furlong breeze in :49.80 (52/74) at Fair Grounds Mar. 15.

Impel's leading sire Quality Road is responsible for 15 Grade I winners worldwide, including 2017 Kentucky Oaks heroine Abel Tasman. Juddmonte acquired Impel's Claiborne Farm-bred and stakes-winning dam/GII Gallant Bloom H. runner-up Your Love (Flatter) for $480,000 out of the ELiTE consignment on behalf of the late Paul P. Pompa, Jr. and WinStar Farm at the 2019 Keeneland November sale.

Your Love, a half-sister to GSW & MGISP Well Monied (Maria's Mon); GSW & GISP Happy American (Runhappy); MSW & GSP Jimmy Simms (Lost Soldier); and a full-sister to GSW & GISP Economic Model, is also responsible for a yearling filly by Curlin. After losing her pregnancy to Not This Time this year, Your Love recently checked back in foal to the promising young Taylor Made stallion, per O'Rourke. Impel is her first foal.

“She's come along beautifully,” O'Rourke said of Impel. “She's a lovely, big scopey filly. The well-bred ones that look good are the ones that are supposed to be good. It's nice when they are. I guess there was always a doubt in the back of mind about her staying. Her mother was a sprinter and the Quality Roads can go both ways. She was so impressive when she broke her maiden and also when she went the two turns so readily.”

O'Rourke concluded, “But from here on in, she's gonna have to step it up to be confident that she's an Oaks winner.”

The @juddmontefarms homebred #5 Impel stretches out and romps to stay perfect in R4 at Oaklawn Park for trainer @bradcoxracing with @christiantorr64 aboard!

A bright future ahead for this 3YO filly! You can add her to your TwinSpires #StableAlerts!

#TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/xyjJS3FYeq

— TwinSpires Racing (@TwinSpires) March 3, 2024

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Now sitting atop the Longines World's Best Racehorse Rankings on 121, National Treasure (Quality Road) and Senor Buscador (Mineshaft) both began their 2024 campaigns in the GI Pegasus World Cup Invitational S. in January, which saw the former defeat Senor Buscador by a neck.

Following that effort, they both travelled to the Middle East to compete in the G1 Saudi Cup. Senor Buscador raced in the back of the field before rallying to defeat Ushba Tesoro (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}) by a head, who was weighted on 120 for this week's list. Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming), who was three-quarters of a length back in third, came next on 119, while National Treasure finished fourth.

Ushba Tesoro shares the joint-second position in the rankings, along with G1 Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup winner Romantic Warrior (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}) and Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}), who won the Listed HH The Amir Trophy in Qatar Feb. 17.

Joining them with 120 points is Private Eye (Aus) (Al Maher {Aus}). He finished second by a head in the G1 Black Caviar Lightning S. to Imperatriz (Aus) (I Am Invincible {Aus}), who made the list with 119.

Click here for the full list of ranked horses.

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“Fierceness and Agate Road breezed a half together and both did really well, especially Fierceness. [He had] a strong gallop-out, looked good. He's continued to train really good since the Holy Bull,” Pletcher said.

He also added that, while Fierceness had also been training well up to his seasonal debut, the race dynamics may've done more against him than they'd initially thought. “[…] I don't think he needed a race. I think our expectations were so high for him that maybe we're not looking at it realistically. If you watch the start of the race, he got slammed pretty hard from both sides. Johnny [Velazquez], in order to execute the game plan, had to use him pretty hard to get to the first turn in the position we wanted to.”

“He could have been a little rusty off the layoff, even though he was training great. He was top weight. [There are] a lot of subtle excuses that, for an ordinary horse, you would try to justify it. In his case, he trained so well and we expected so much of him, sometimes you think he can overcome everything.”

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