First or second for all four starts in his juvenile season, including victory in the GI American Pharoah S. two back and a runner-up effort behind fellow Eclipse finalist Fierceness (City of Light) in the GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the betting public heralded this contest as Muth's to lose.

Sent off the overwhelming 2-5 favorite, he was content to track Slider and Pilot Commander as that pair stepped out fastest to his inside. Still widest of all as :45.27 and 1:09.76 splits floated by, he challenged his stablemate coming off the bend from four wide, and cleared the embattled dup with a furlong to go. He was ridden out to a 2 3/4-length victory as Pilot Commander go the best of the photo with Slider.

“I was happy with their performance. I thought Muth was going to be up there early like he was at Del Mar, but the other horse (Pilot Commander) was quicker away from there. I thought he would be stalking but Juan, he just took back and rode Muth with a lot of confidence. He knows his horse really well. I'm just glad it worked out,” said Bob Baffert.

He added, “Zedan Racing, he gives us all this ammo to work with. He handles the wins and the losses the same way and he let me name this horse after my good friend Aaron Muth, so it is fun for him.”

Champion Two-Year-Old Male finalist #3 MUTH ($2.80) easily wins the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2). The 3YO Bob Baffert trainee gets his second graded stakes victory with @JJHernandezS19 up. pic.twitter.com/yh53g2O76U

— TVG (@TVG) January 6, 2024

Pedigree Note

Muth is the first offspring to the races for the winning Hoppa, who has since produced two half-sisters to the Eclipse finalist–a 2-year-old by Violence and a yearling by Tacitus. She is due this spring with a full-sibling to the victor.

While his pedigree is quiet immediately up front as he and MSP March to Victory (Dixieland Band) are the only black-type earners, Muth does hail from the extended female family of GSW Wandering Star, who herself went on to produce G1SW-Eng War Command (War Front) and GSW-Fr Naval Officer. That extended family also includes New Zealand champion G1SW-NZ Rollout the Carpet (Aus) (Holy Roman Emperor {Ire}).

Saturday, Santa Anita Park
SAN VICENTE S.-GII, $200,500, Santa Anita, 1-6, 3yo, 7f, 1:23.01, ft.
1–MUTH, 124, c, 3, by Good Magic
                1st Dam: Hoppa, by Uncle Mo
                2nd Dam: Handoverthecat, by Tale of the Cat
                3rd Dam: Frayne, by Red Ransom
($190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR). 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert; J-Juan J. Hernandez. $120,000. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Werk Nick Rating: A++. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Pilot Commander, 120, c, 3, Justify–Rebuke, by Carson City. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($145,000 RNA Ylg '22 KEEJAN; $700,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR). O-CSLR Racing Partners LLC; B-AR Enterprises, Inc. (KY); T-Bob Baffert. $40,000.
3–Slider, 124, c, 3, Jimmy Creed–Days Like This, by Congrats. 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($240,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR). O-Hall Racing LLC, Pearl Racing and West Point Thoroughbreds; B-Jason Hall, Stephen Baker, Herschel Martindale, and Mike Riordan (KY); T-John W. Sadler. $24,000.
Margins: 2 3/4, HD, 5 3/4. Odds: 0.40, 2.90, 8.00.
Also Ran: Boltage, Moonlit Sonata, Formidable Man.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will also saddle front-running Del Mar debut winner and 5-2 second-choice Pilot Commander (Justify).

Baffert is seeking his record 13th win in the San Vicente, which was previously held in early February.

“They changed the format,” Baffert said. “While I liked it better when this race was in February, I think this should be a good starting point to his season. I think the winner (Fierceness) just ran a crazy fast race (in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile). Muth ran well, he just got beat.”

This weekend's graded stakes action also includes Sunday's GIII Santa Ynez S. at Santa Anita. The rail-drawn Kopion (Omaha Beach), a sharp debut winner for trainer Richard Mandella at Del Mar in late November, is the 3-5 morning-line favorite.

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But neither the Breeders' Cup blanking nor the Derby banishment should be taken as indications that the Hall-of-Fame conditioner is running low on horsepower, particularly in the 2-year-old division.

A pair of Baffert juveniles on the first two days of the Del Mar meeting this past weekend underscored that his stable will continue to churn out a deep rotation of Triple Crown aspirants, although it remains to be seen how they might arrive at the first of the spring Classics, whether in the form of a switch to another conditioner, or under Baffert's own name if and when another court fight against CDI materializes.

Second-time starter Coach Prime (Quality Road) caught the eye and earned 'TDN Rising Star' status with a 7 1/4-length blowout victory over a mile Nov. 10. The $1.7-million KEESEP colt for Zedan Racing Stables was pinballed at the break from post nine, but the 7-5 favorite settled into a comfortable midpack stalking spot while three wide through the clubhouse turn behind quick opening fractions of :21.44 and :44.94.

Flavien Prat guided Coach Prime to within two lengths of the lead while on the inside a half-mile from home, and the colt continued “on hold” while waiting for running room as multiple pace-pressers took turns chipping at the lead. He shifted out to the three path at the quarter pole, just before a wall of four at the front split into two turning for home, and Coach Prime sliced on through between them while still in hand.

Beyond a single crack of the crop after cresting the eighth pole unopposed, Prat largely hand-rode Coach Prime through the final furlong. The 1:37.18 final clocking and low-looking 75 Beyer Speed Figure can be chalked up as artifacts of this colt not nearing full extension and being geared down in the late stages.

Stablemate Pilot Commander (Justify), a $145,000 KEEJAN RNA and a $700,000 OBSMAR buy for CSLR Racing Partners, impressed with a debut six-furlong win at 13-10 odds under Juan Hernandez the following afternoon.

This Baffert trainee shot straight to the front, conceded the lead to an inside challenger a half-mile out, reclaimed it with ease a furlong later, edged away at the top of the stretch, and successfully repulsed a challenge from the third-favorite in the betting while building his winning margin to 2 1/4 lengths in 1:09.82. Pilot Commander's Beyer fig was not yet available at deadline for this column.

Juvy Jock Streak Stopped At 13…

The target at the top of the totem pole for the 2024 Derby, is, of course, 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness (City of Light), who trounced the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile field by 6 1/4 lengths en route to a 105 Beyer victory.

In the six months between now and the first Saturday in May, prepare to be frequently reminded how poor a metric winning the 1 1/16-miles championship race for 2-year-olds is in predicting prowess at age three going 10 furlongs.

Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Kentucky Derby wins from 39 runnings (Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016).

Second- and third-place Juvenile horses don't fare much better. Those 78 horses have produced just two Derby victories, by Alysheba (third in the 1986 Juvenile) and Spend A Buck (third in the 1984 Juvenile).

Oddly enough, another “drought” type of streak in the Juvenile–this one relating to jockeys–was snapped when John Velazquez scored aboard Fierceness in this year's edition.

Dating to 2010, when Velazquez last won the Juvenile aboard Uncle Mo, 13 different riders had taken turns winning the championship dirt race for 2-year-old males. Of all the Breeders' Cup races, that was the longest such active streak of different jockeys winning without a rider repeating in the sequence.

You'd have to be a true trivia wizard to recount the complete list from memory. Following Velazquez in 2010, the winning Juvenile jockeys were, in order, Ramon Dominguez, Rosie Napravnik, Martin Garcia, Kent Desormeaux, Mario Gutierrez, Julien Leparoux, Jose Ortiz, Joel Rosario, Flavien Prat, Luis Saez, Mike Smith and Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Bravo Homecoming

Joe Bravo has switched his tack back to Florida after being based in Southern California the past several seasons. It's a homecoming in terms of where the 52-year-old veteran first started riding (at Calder Race Course in 1988), and also in terms of the house Bravo owns in Ft. Lauderdale.

“I loved racing in California,” Bravo told the Del Mar notes team. “I was really grateful to be around some good people, but I just got a little homesick and wanted to come back and be closer to my family.”

After stints at Calder and Philadelphia Park, Bravo made his mark for 30-plus years as “Jersey Joe,” dominating the standings at Monmouth Park and the Meadowlands. He generally rode at Gulfstream Park during the winter months when New Jersey racing went dark for the season.

“I've been away from family and friends I grew up with my whole life and that was behind the decision as a whole,” Bravo said. “I just hope everyone understands it's more of a personal than a business decision. I might regret it. I might be thankful.”

That “Whatever will be, will be,” attitude was evident–quite literally–in Bravo's second mount back at Gulfstream.

That's because Bravo won the third race Sunday aboard Whateverwilbewilbe (Tapiture), a second-time starter who paid $13.80 to win.

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The bay colt out of GSW Magical Feeling (Empire Maker) counts Oaklawn Mile S. hero Exulting (Tapit) as a half-brother and GIII Monmouth Oaks heroine Occult as a full-sister. Under the third dam, we find GI Travers S. champ Golden Ticket (Speightstown).

The other Baffert first time starter here is Pilot Commander (Justify), who winged his way during OBS March to a 9 4/5 furlong at the undertack breeze show and then jetted home with CSLR Partners for $700,000. The chestnut colt out of Rebuke (Carson City) is a half-brother to GSP Freedom Flyer (Constitution). TJCIS PPS

The post Saturday Insights: Pricey Sons Of Into Mischief And Justify Debut At Del Mar For Baffert appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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