“The best moment from 2023 was the confirmation that the state of New York would be loaning NYRA nearly half a billion dollars to build a modern Belmont Park. I'd rate this occurrence as possibly the most positive development in the sport since the founding of the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. The seeds of this were planted in the years before VLT revenue started flowing in New York and it was decided NYRA wanted a slice of that revenue to go to a capital expenditure fund instead of just diverting it all to purses. That foresight was so very necessary. The future of the sport in New York is bright and that's monumentally important for every other stakeholder in the sport.”
-Pat Cummings, National Thoroughbred Alliance

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Daily double pools on Sept. 4 (Races 2/3), Sept. 1 (Races 6/7) and Aug. 25 (Races 5/6) were subject to massive bets on combinations the manipulator(s) expected to lose. In each case, the bets were made in the final betting cycle when projected payouts for each combination are not updated until the race was underway.

TIF has drawn attention to such incidents, and the problems they create, at other U.S. tracks in the past. Most notably, Gulfstream Park eliminated its quinella pools after a significant manipulation event was detected in November 2022.

“These incidents at Prairie Meadows have all the hallmarks of pool manipulation based on TIF's multi-year focus and every time they occur, it calls into question the outcomes of the races involved,” said TIF executive director Patrick Cummings. “Integrity is paramount and when pools are manipulated like this, bettors are rightly confused and can lose confidence that races are run fairly and the betting pools are operated fairly.”

Click here for more on this story.

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Winning horseplayers at Churchill Downs and around the world betting into the pools across Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby days enjoyed more than an additional $1 million in winnings thanks to an amendment to Kentucky law which now rounds winning bets to the penny.

The practice, known as breakage, has been in effect across all of American racing, relatively unchanged, for more than a century. But Kentucky's legislature passed an amendment to existing laws in March 2022. The measure took effect in July of last year, making Saturday's Kentucky Derby won by Mage the first in modern history to pay winning bettors to the penny.

Mage returned $32.42 to win, $14.58 to place and $9.08 to show for every $2 bet.

A $100 place bet on Mage this year returned bettors an additional $9 in 2023 compared to what would have been paid to them under the old breakage calculation.

For the Derby itself, more than an additional $318,000 was paid back from just the win, place and show pools thanks to penny breakage. The total amount across all pools is even higher. Traditionally, winnings have been rounded down to the dime and that amount was retained by bet-takers, either on-track or by account wagering operators.

“This amended law puts the entirety of a winning bet back in the hands and accounts of horseplayers, where it has always belonged,” said Patrick Cummings, executive director of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation, which first advocated for the shift to penny breakage in a 2018 white paper.

“Breakage has skimmed billions of dollars off the top of winnings that should have been paid to horseplayers. Decades ago, it might have been slightly more understandable why such a law existed, but not today, and Kentucky's legislators recognized that and made a meaningful change that will benefit those that support racing through wagering.”

Perhaps not surprisingly, total wagering on the 2023 Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby days were both record highs, as was all wagering across the entirety of Derby week.

“Breaking to the penny, enabling customers to churn those additional winnings ,undoubtedly played a role, no matter how small it might seem. Kentucky's continued success should serve as an example for other states, tracks and horsemen to advocate for penny breakage, following Kentucky's lead.”

Click fo read this story on the TIF website.

The Thoroughbred Idea Foundation advocates for sustainable improvements to the Thoroughbred racing industry for all stakeholders, especially its primary customers–horseplayers and horse owners–through the exchange, curation and advocacy of sound, data-driven ideas, shared with and implemented by the sport's existing entities.

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The entry portal closes at 11:00 a.m. E.T. this Saturday, May 6. Players should keep track of their answers as you will not be able to revisit the survey portal once you submit your entry. Should a horse named directly in a prop be scratched, all answers to that prop may be counted as correct.

Winners will be notified by email late on Saturday evening to identify how to direct charitable donations. The top finishers will get to direct $20,000 in donations to four racing charities, which are: Backside Learning Center at Churchill Downs, New Vocations, Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund and Second Stride. Click here, for more information.

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Horseplayers at the 2022 Breeders' Cup enjoyed more than $545,000 in additional winnings from just the win, place and show pools thanks to the revised Kentucky law that pays pari-mutuel winnings down the penny.

“The two days of racing at Keeneland were sensational, but it was made that extra bit better thanks to penny breakage increasing payouts to players,” said Patrick Cummings, Executive Director of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF).

In no race was the impact greater than the Breeders' Cup Classic won by Flightline.

Under the previous provision, and across nearly every American jurisdiction now other than Kentucky, Flightline would have paid $2.80, $2.80 and $2.20 for each $2 stake in the win, place and show pools, respectively. Instead, winning bettors received $2.88, $2.92 and $2.30 from those pools.

“The penny breakage law meant that a $2 bet across the board on Flightline returned a profit 16% larger than it would have under dime breakage,” Cummings said.

Altogether, the win, place and show pools from the Classic returned $240,000 more than with traditional rounding to the dime.

“The wins from Modern Games ($4.76) and Malathaat ($7.76) carried an extra boost too, accounting for an additional $131,000 from the win breakage alone going back to horseplayers.

“Hopefully winning players churned some of that into Rebel's Romance and Flightline.”

Overall, through just 64 days of Thoroughbred racing in Kentucky since the revised law went into effect, total breakage returned to horseplayers from the win, place and show pools is now more than $2.13 million.

Factoring in exotic pools as well as Standardbred racing in Kentucky, the total returned is higher.

“Pricing matters and racing wagering's overall takeout rates, already too high, are inflated by rounding down to the dime. Kentucky took a bold first step and other states and horsemen's groups should follow their lead and support such initiatives.

“Clinging to this antiquated practice is bad business and keeps racing wagering less competitive. We hope racing adopts sustainable practices to build its customer base and 'grow the pie' for all stakeholders.”

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TIF was a vocal supporter and champion of the penny breakage provision, the first of its kind in North America as part of broader legislation designed to standardize pari-mutuel taxation.

“The total is even higher than $1.1 million, that is just in the Thoroughbred win, place and show pools” said TIF Executive Director Patrick Cummings. “The breaks from exotic pools and Kentucky's Standardbred races add even more to the total.”

According to the post, in previous times, if an unrounded $1 return for a bet was $5.0918, under the rules of dime breakage, an even $5 would be returned to gamblers. Under the new rules, a winning bettor receives $5.09.

“Based on observations across Kentucky's tracks and discussions with tellers, there has been a short acclimation period for everyone to get used to it,” Cummings added. “But now that customers receive a 'full' dividend, not only is there no going back, but we start looking elsewhere wondering why others are not as progressive as Kentucky.

“It's been seamless for ADW bettors and overall, the feedback TIF has received has been entirely positive.”

The penny breakage provision was included in Kentucky House Bill 607 and was passed by both legislative branches in March before being signed into law the following month.

“The legislative support to accomplish this cannot be understated, led by Representative Adam Koenig in the House and Majority Leader Damon Thayer in the Senate,” Cummings said. “They mustered the backing of a vast majority of their colleagues to be the first in America to right a multi-generational wrong.

“The penny breakage provision was a small part of a much bigger bill and it is paying back horseplayers that bet Kentucky races, enabling them to churn more across the sport.”

The Keeneland-hosted Breeders' Cup Nov. 4 and 5 will include the enhanced payouts for the first time, as will next year's Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks.

“Other states and tracks should want the same, following Kentucky's lead. But until then, Kentucky pays you more,” said Cummings.

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In an unusual incident on Tuesday, Sept. 6, a horse reported to betting outlets as a scratch for 40 minutes prior to the start of a pick four sequence at Mountaineer Park was later unscratched after betting was closed and allowed to race.

Remarkably, all pick four bets placed were paid to the actual results.

“There are some similarities to the Modern Games (Ire) incident from last year's Breeders' Cup,” said TIF Executive Director Patrick Cummings, “and it proves that wagering rules are in desperate need of an update for the protection of customers.”

Click here to read the rest of this piece from the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation.

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The rule seems clear.

What is also clear is that the rule, as written, was ignored on Thursday, July 21 at Saratoga, though by which party is unknown at present.

“On behalf of aggrieved horseplayers who were impacted by the decision last Thursday, and all future players of multi-race bets in New York, we felt it necessary to seek clarification from the New York State Gaming Commission about the rules, why a seemingly arbitrary decision was made in the sequence and what customer expectations should be going forward in similar cases,” said TIF Executive Director Patrick Cummings.

Contacted on Monday morning, the Commission has yet to reply.

“Customers expect operators and regulators will follow the wagering rules as written,” said professional horseplayer and author Mike Maloney. “Horseplayers' confidence is paramount and there is little doubt that some of that was lost as a result of this incident.”

Horseplayer Eric Bialek, a final table participant in the 2020 National Horseplayers' Championship, was incredulous after the announcement.

“It defies every expectation of horseplayers for a race that was run a half hour earlier to subsequently be declared an all-win,” Bialek said. “Without a proper explanation from either the state or NYRA, speculation is all we have and that's incredibly insufficient.”

For the full story, please click here.

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“For more than a century, horseplayers have never received a full winning dividend and today the General Assembly in Kentucky affirmed that it is beyond time to change that and respect horseplayers anywhere betting on races from Kentucky,” said Patrick Cummings, Executive Director of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF), which has championed the cause dating back nearly four years.

“Across just the last three decades or so, approximately $1 billion has been retained from winning bets across America. The passage of HB 607 will put some of this money back in the pockets and accounts of winning bettors from future bets.'

“We are thankful for the leadership of bill's House sponsors, Representatives Adam Koenig and Al Gentry, and Senator Damon Thayer in guiding its passage.

In addition to the favorable breakage rules, HB 607 calls for taxation on pari-mutuel wagers at 1.5%, the same rate assessed on Historical Horse Racing (HHR) machines. The standardization of taxation means that bets made through and ADW by Kentucky residents will be taxed at 1.5%, up from 0.5 %.

“Horse racing must relentlessly pursue every method to make its product as competitive as possible,” said Bernick. “The market pressure on racing is stronger than ever with the rapid legalization of sports betting across the country. We hope that operators realize the importance of retaining all customers and driving their participation through the presentation of competitive racing with competitive pricing.”

HB 607 was sponsored by Representative Adam Koenig. A house committee approved the legislation Mar. 16 before referring it to the Senate for its consideration. The bill now returns to the House for concurrence, but it is expected to sail through and head to the desk of Governor Andy Beshear for his signature.

The Kentucky Equine Education Project (KEEP) released a statement Tuesday, applauding the General Assembly for the passage of HB 607.

“A tremendous amount of work went into crafting this new tax policy and KEEP is grateful to the legislators who served on the Pari-Mutuel Wagering Taxation Task Force for the time and effort they put into fully understanding the economic structure of Kentucky's horse industry,” the statement read. “We would also like to applaud Senate Majority Floor Leader Thayer and Representative Koenig for their leaderships as co-chairs of the task force. The resulting legislation was able to strike a delicate balance between increasing revenue for the state, while at the same time not arbitrarily raising tax rates in a way that would damage the economic success of the industry.

“The entire horse industry was engaged in this process and KEEP was proud to work closely with legislators to ensure that they had access to the full picture of what economic benefits the industry has on the Commonwealth.

“KEEP will continue working on behalf of Kentucky's entire horse industry and community to advocate for policies that benefit everyone within the industry's economic ecosystem. Growing the success of the industry's more than 60,000 jobs and $6.5 billion economic impact on the state benefits all Kentuckians.”

Once signed off on by Beshear, the provisions of the bill are due to take effect come August.

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It might even offer signs into the future of betting on the Breeders' Cup and other big American racing events, too.

Regardless, every stakeholder in the American racing industry should hope the future will be improved from the present.

According to the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB), and confirmed with a review of tote data by the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF), Modern Games is first reflected as a scratch at 5:35.35 P.M, approximately 138 seconds after Albahr is reported as scratched from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

For racing veterans, including experienced horseplayers, there is seemingly no coming back from a scratch.

J. Curtis Linnell, head of the Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau, an organization which includes tote security and monitoring under its duties, said as much in comments to the Daily Racing Form.

“Once a horse is scratched, it's impossible to undo that…”

Shortly after 5:37 P.M., according to the CHRB, the impossible happened.

The state's racing regulator, in a follow-up release the morning after the race, said “Modern Games was reinserted into the parimutuel wagering pools at 5:37.01.”

Reinserted?

“There are too many things that happen automatically,” Linnell said before the CHRB follow-up was released. “It's not like [the pools are] sitting in suspension until the race goes official. That's why everybody has to be very careful to not scratch a horse on a mistake.”

AmWager, a small ADW, offers a graph that depicts odds changes over the entirety of betting information for each race. Their graph below shows the betting changes of three horses from the Juvenile Turf: Modern Games (red), Albahr (white) and Dakota Gold (blue).

It is noticeable when Albahr scratches, the odds of both Modern Games and Dakota Gold drop as a result. When Modern Games is first reported as a scratch, Dakota Gold's odds decline while Modern Games disappears entirely.

But what about when Modern Games is “reinserted,” his price returning to where it was prior to the scratch, while Dakota Gold reverts as well?

As Linnell stated, both his expectation and that of nearly every regular horseplayer is that once the horse is scratched, a series of automatic actions take place, which includes triggering refunds for all bets that included Modern Games in intra-race pools (win, exacta, etc).

That does not seem to have happened, and contrary to Linnell's perspective shared to the Daily Racing Form, the win pool on Modern Games did appear to sit in a suspended state during the time of his original scratching.

The expectations of horseplayers once Modern Games was scratched would be a timely refund of all intra-race bets. Despite an initial scratching and a reinstatement, Modern Games was an active player in the pools for another six minutes, his price drifting higher the entire time.

The entire situation begs many questions. Among them:

– If this can happen unexpectedly in these circumstances, can it happen on a random Tuesday at a track with far fewer eyes than the conclusion of Future Stars Friday at the Breeders' Cup?

– Is it possible for a horse's pool to be temporarily closed in the moments before betting, only to be reinstated as if there were no issues, before such actions are noticed or reported to officials? Could it jeopardize the integrity of the pools, albeit for a short period?

– If automatic processes normally occur once the scratch is made, why did that not seem to happen here, with Modern Games being reinstated to the pools at the same odds when he was originally scratched? Why weren't refunds processed at his original scratching? Why did the pari-mutuel system perform outside the expectations of normal behavior?

– Like the “Fix Six” fraud, which uncovered antiquated processes in tote technology in 2002, has this situation revealed any similar findings?

The incident would have occupied an entire chapter of TIF's early 2021 series “Wagering Insecurity,” which questioned the evolution of tote technologies in the American market, threats to the integrity of wagering pools and more.

Answers to those questions are unknown at present. The public will have to wait to learn more as the CHRB commences an investigation into the incident. Mistakes happen, but human errors aside, are there weaknesses with the pari-mutuel system that this incident exposed?

“We look forward to the results of the CHRB investigation and working with all industry stakeholders, including horseplayers, to improve and modernize both existing rules and wagering infrastructure,” said Breeders' Cup chief executive officer Drew Fleming.

In response to questions from TIF regarding the incident, Del Mar provided the following statement:

“Our regulator, the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB), is investigating the matter. Del Mar is fully cooperating with that investigation. We are very sympathetic to those bettors who had their wagers negatively impacted by Modern Games running for purse money only. We are withholding any further comment until the CHRB review is complete.”

DISREGARDING BETTORS

Under CHRB rules, Modern Games was permitted to run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf for “purse only.”

The rules were followed, but they are flawed and disproportionately unfair to bettors.

American bettors are accustomed to the purse-only situation mostly through experiences in New York, where horses can be coupled due to shared ownership and a late scratch of one entrant requires the other horse or horses in the coupling to run for purse only.

This more frequently applied New York rule provides customers a modicum of protection, but still falls short of the mark.

Both states' situations can be considered here, though the focus will be on California's rule, reprinted below.

“Rule No. 1974: Wagering Interest…

“(b) If a horse is removed from the wagering pool due to a totalizator error, or due to any other error, and neither the trainer nor the owner is at fault, the horse shall start in the race as a non-wagering interest for the purse only and shall be disregarded for pari-mutuel purposes.

The philosophy behind CHRB Rule 1974, and any rule enabling a horse to race for purse-only, seems fair on the surface – don't penalize one horse's connections for an error beyond their control and let it run for purse money only.

It is anything but fair.

Allowing any horse to run for purse only creates two races, one for owners and one for bettors.

If consideration was given by a regulator to the concerns of bettors, such a situation would never be memorialized in rules. Such a rule engenders the opposite of a customer-centric approach.

The outcome of the race for bettors is then allowed to be impacted by an interest that is not part of the wagering options. Modern Games could impact the pace. Modern Games could swing wide and force other horses out too. Modern Games could back-up on the rail and disturb other horses.

Disregarding a horse for “pari-mutuel purposes” and then running the race with that horse in it is equivalent to disregarding the interests of betting customers altogether.

For one longtime regulator, steps must be taken to change rules which demote the interests of the betting public. Instead, their interests should be a primary concern.

“If Modern Games was scratched, and it was irrevocable, that would have been a really bad beat for his connections. It would be unfair,” said Joe Gorajec, who served as executive director of the Indiana Horse Racing Commission for 25 years.

“Having said that, if the only other option is to have them race as a purse-only participant, that is actually more unfair to the betting public.

“In the hierarchy of special interests, the horse and rider are paramount. Next in line is the betting public. A distant third is everyone else. The interests of the horsemen should never supersede those of the betting public.”

The wagering impact of a horse running for purse only is never known until after the race. But there is some impact, and that yields an outcome that should never be forced onto customers.

An act which is believed to be incredibly fair to the connections of the horse, allowing the horse to run for purse only, is fundamentally unfair to the bettors of the “same” race.

Any rule in any state which permits a non-wagering interest to race adjacent to wagering interests, when such situations are fully known prior to the race, should be abolished. The rules of racing have not evolved favorably for betting customers.

The lack of a customer-centric approach on these matters, in California and New York particularly, is disturbing.

“Generally speaking, when commissions make or amend rules and regulations, they look at the interested groups in front of them and the positions they take,” said Gorajec.

“Most times, those interests tend to be horsemen and track operators and more often than not, bettors are never even considered. My experience has been that a lot of regulators are ignorant about what is in the best interest of bettors. That is a problem now and it has always been a problem.”

A fairer outcome to a greater number of stakeholders is a laudable goal for the future, and it goes beyond just updating American state rules on these matters. More could be within reach as internationalized pari-mutuel wagering markets evolve.

GLOBAL APPROACH COULD REVOLUTIONIZE OPPORTUNITIES AND BETTORS' INTERESTS

If such a mistaken scratching occurred in Hong Kong, where the per-race pools are the highest in the world, there would have been no betting permitted altogether.

All wagering pools would have been refunded, the track would have received no revenue on the race and multi-race bets would have paid to every horse, respecting the bettors while still paying the purse.

The opinion of betting operators outside America is increasingly meaningful in these matters as pari-mutuel pools globalize through commingling.

For the first time since 2014, bettors in Hong Kong had a chance to wager on American racing as both the Breeders' Cup Mile and Turf were offered via separate pools in the early hours of Sunday morning. After witnessing the Juvenile Turf fiasco, the Hong Kong Jockey Club made their thoughts known to the Breeders' Cup hours before presenting two American races to their customers.

“I think it is something which is definitely of concern,” Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges, the Hong Kong Jockey Club's (HKJC) chief executive officer, told the South China Morning Post the day following the 2021 Breeders' Cup.

“We had a discussion and we informed the Breeders' Cup after the incident that we respect the rules they have but that if something like this would happen with our simulcast races, we would void the race and pay back the bets as our customers would not accept it.”

Engelbrecht-Bresges, who is also the new chairman of the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA), asserts all bets on the race would be refunded, while all horses would be treated as winners in multi-race sequences.

The HKJC prepared for a repeat of the Friday fiasco on Breeders' Cup Saturday and their policies were tested immediately. Another Godolphin-owned, Charlie Appleby-trained runner was scratched at the gate in the first American race with Hong Kong betting in eight years.

Master Of The Seas got fractious prior to the Breeders' Cup Mile and was withdrawn. The HKJC tote, which operated its own pools on the race, did not scratch and refund bets on Master Of The Seas until after the race had started and it was abundantly clear he would not be “reinserted” or allowed to run for purse only, like Modern Games.

The betting operator protected customers and sacrificed a higher commission by holding its scratch until a repeat occurrence of the Juvenile Turf was not possible.

Hong Kong has been growing its business as a global hub of betting on major race days and is actively pursuing vastly enhanced pari-mutuel wagering protocols on a worldwide level. Executives from the HKJC and Australian wagering behemoth Tabcorp co-chair the World Tote Association, formed in 2020.

The HKJC has advanced the reality of globally commingled betting pools since welcoming pari-mutuel punters to its famously massive pools on its own races since 2013 and has grown substantially. Across its 2020-2021 season, 17% of total handle on Hong Kong racing came from commingled sources, an amalgam of 60 betting partners from 26 countries and jurisdictions, including the U.S.

Concurrently, the HKJC has evolved its role as the central pari-mutuel hub for major European race days, one which has been branded “World Pools.”

“Under World Pool, punters from around the world bet into a single pool hosted by the Hong Kong Jockey Club, providing huge liquidity and ensuring more stable dividends, meaning a significant bet no longer results in plummeting dividends,” wrote Bill Barber, industry reporter for the Racing Post, in October.

Where were the pari-mutuel pools at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood hosted in 2021?

Hong Kong.

Irish Champions and British Champions Day too.

Total pari-mutuel handle for the 17 days of British and Irish racing with betting hubbed in Hong Kong was reported by the Racing Post to exceed the equivalent of $480 million. The HKJC served as the global betting hub for the 2021 Dubai World Cup and its final local prep day too. American customers had access to wager into all of them.

With global betting comes the need to improve the transaction protocols and rules which govern such wagering.

Betting snafus such as that in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf are unpalatable at any time, but should be mitigated in the future, particularly as the push towards global commingling of big race days reaches American shores.

In his October address at the IFHA's annual conference, Engelbrecht-Bresges tasked a new commercial committee within the organization, chaired by France Galop CEO Olivier Delloye, to pioneer a more integrated, advanced set of betting protocols.

“There will be a particular emphasis on driving growth through simulcasts with a focus on commingling, especially with World Pools, which has already provided significant revenues for its participant and presented an unprecedented growth opportunity for our sport,” said Engelbrecht-Bresges.

“To support the further development of World Pools and commingling, we should develop a new racing, wagering, information and transaction integrity protocol.

Basically – better technology to process bets from all over the world.

Eventually, it could be possible to centralize all Breeders' Cup betting through World Pools or whatever emerges from the concerted efforts of the IFHA, a development that could significantly increase total wagering on U.S. racing's big season-ending championships to previously unconsidered levels.

“Whatever steps can be taken to drive more uniform, global standards, not only with respect to horse safety and medication, but commercialization and wagering, are vitally important for the future of the sport,” said the Breeders' Cup CEO Fleming.

“We look forward to helping that process along in any way that we can.”

“It was a significant step to have customers from both Japan and Hong Kong betting on some of our championship races and we are hopeful that relationship can expand in the future.”

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