“This is a fantastic opportunity for a young person interested in racing to experience an insider's access and share their fresh perspective on the sport,” said Marie Kizenko, NYTHA's Communications Manager. “We look forward to sharing NYTHA's mission with all those interested.”

Interested applicants should send a resume and any relevant links to jobs@nytha.com by Monday, Apr. 1.

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“It's an honor to be elected president of such an esteemed collective,” said Bond, who is the first woman ever to helm the organization. “THA is at the forefront of collaborative decision-making and policy implementation on issues such as racehorse aftercare, equine safety and welfare, and protecting the integrity of our sport. I look forward to leading the organization as it addresses the challenges that horsemen and women face on local, regional, and national levels.”

In other THA officer elections, Chris Block and David Richardson were named vice presidents; Michael Musto was named treasurer; and Bessie Gruwell will serve as secretary.

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“It's impressive to see how much of an economic engine horse racing is in the state of New York,” said NYTHA President Tina Marie Bond. “Together with a total economic impact of $3 billion statewide, racing has added over 2,000 direct jobs in the past five years. Racing supports land preservation and green space across the state, and is a significant driver of tourism both in the Capital Region and on Long Island. With the Belmont Stakes Festival at Saratoga for 2024 and 2025, as well as a redeveloped Belmont Park on the horizon, racing will continue to boost local economies and provide jobs for years to come.”

“The findings from the American Horse Council's economic impact study for New York report that the breeding and racing industry is an invaluable asset to our state,” said NYTB President Dr. Scott Ahlschwede, D.V.M. “Our state-bred program has positioned itself as the leading regional program in the nation, and we look forward to continuing to work with our fellow stakeholders to ensure that the additional investment in breeding and racing in New York will result in added revenue for all areas across the state.”

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This year's batch–three Yale undergrads studying economics, electrical engineering and political science–were tasked with a data-driven analysis of the economics of the national horse racing biz over the past 20 years.

Harboring no previous relationship with the industry, the three undergrads came in free of prejudice and preconceptions.

The result is a 33-page paper weaving piercing and worrying insights into the state of racehorse ownership, racetrack management and training in the country alongside findings that give tentative cause for optimism.

It's also the sort of detailed analysis of horse racing's economic foundation stones that's done all too infrequently for an industry of this size and scope.

“We've been a sport that traditionally makes decisions either around general 'chat around the pub,' or just whatever the richest guy in the room thinks,” said Joe Appelbaum, NYTHA president and an advisor on the study.

“Neither is usually a good one to make good economic decisions from,” he added.

Among the areas the three researchers focused in on were owner, trainer and horse participation; purse and handle trends; the bloodstock market; along with a side-by-side economic analysis of horse racing and other national sports.

They break their key findings down the following way:

• That the 2008 global financial meltdown significantly hastened the decline in trainer numbers, owner interest numbers and participating racehorses.

• That two areas–bloodstock prices and per-capita purse distribution–showed surprising resilience during that time.

• More pointedly, with fewer horses competing for increased purses per race, individual owner entities have generally been doing slightly better financially over the last 20 years.

• Despite areas of improved economic value for owners, costs remain high while the entertainment value of the sport appears to be declining due in part to horses racing less and working more.

• The economic divide between the bigger and smaller trainers remained unchanged over the past 20 years. That said, such a divide is a characteristic of other national professional sports.

• A consolidation of quality horses among fewer and fewer of the nation's largest stables has also triggered growing inequality among the top trainers.

• At the end of the day, the not-for-profit model of certain racetracks coupled with the “capitalist nature” of Kentucky's breeding market could serve as models for other areas of the industry.

The detailed analysis warrants a much closer look at some of the statistics woven through it, several of which mirror the TDN's own prior dives into similar topics.

PARTICIPATION

The past 20 years has seen a decrease of nearly 40% in total horses that raced, a decrease of nearly 55% in total trainers that had at least one horse make a start, and a decrease of just over 42% in the number of owners who owned at least one horse.

Interestingly, the sharp drop in trainer numbers has been reflected in the TDN's own examination of California's trainer colony. Between 2007 and 2020, California witnessed a 46.4% decrease in the number of individual trainers making at least one start: from 573 in 2007 to 307 in 2020.

Hastening the speed of these declines was the 2008 global financial meltdown.

As the researchers write, “it accelerated the declines among horses and owners, and although trainers were already leaving the industry at a significant rate prior to the recession, trainers were still impacted by the economic crisis as they rely on owners to give them their horses.”

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, however, there have been tentative signs of plateauing declines in the number of participating owner interests and competing horses.

In what will prove a surprise to no careful observer of the sport, the last 20 years has also witnessed a 37% drop in the number of races run nationally, and a 45% drop in the number of individual starts.

“The landscape of the horse racing industry has changed a lot over the past 20 years as it has lost close to half its existing participants and 37% of its total races,” the researchers write.

“As the number of races, owners, and trainers continues to decrease across the country,” they warn, “the survival of horse racing is threatened.”

PURSE DISTRIBUTION

An inflation-adjusted look at purse levels show that total purses declined by nearly 25% between 2003 and 2023.

However, declines in the number of overall races run nationally over that same period has led to a situation of improved per-race, per-start economics for owners and trainers.

Indeed, inflation-adjusted purse-per-race numbers increased nearly 18% during that time, while inflation-adjusted purse-per-start numbers increased nearly 30%.

In another similarly themed section, the researchers took a stab at quantifying the cost of owning a horse, using numbers shared by one of the nation's “leading racing operations,” which remained unnamed.

Calculating typical training costs, the average days a horse is in training, farm costs, predicted jockey fees, and stable fees, the researchers estimated that the average annual earnings by a horse required to break even for its owner in 2022 was around $66,500.

In 2003, a horse had to win more than $41,810 for the owner to profit, they found.

The findings suggest that the number of horses “breaking even” for their owners over the past 20 years grew from below 8% in 2003 to over 11% in 2022.

Unsurprisingly, there were precipitous drops in the numbers of “breaking even” horses during the 2008 economic collapse and during the worst impacts from COVID-19.

The reason for this overall increase, the researchers write, is twofold.

“There are fewer horses racing, which is an effect of the decrease in the supply of foal crop,” they wrote. “And there is a higher amount of money available due to the alternative revenue provided through the casinos at the tracks.”

FOAL CROP AND SALES

The sales rings provided the researchers with another area for optimism.

“As the economy in general and horse racing in particular emerged from the Great Recession,” they write, “one area of clear strength has been the increasing value of bloodstock at all levels.”

Indeed, the inflation-adjusted average price of weanlings, yearlings and 2-year-olds increased over the past 20 years by just over $14,500. The same goes for median prices.

Since a recession-led low back in 2009, the median sales price increased 48% to a level of $30,000 in 2022.

“This upward trend in the median price indicates that a wide range of bloodstock assets, not only just the high-end ones, have experienced value appreciation,” the researchers write.

Why is this? The researchers contend that simple supply and demand is at play as the national foal crop has declined nearly 50% over the past 20 years.

“As the supply of horses eligible to be auctioned decreased due to the lower foal crop, breeders and sellers found themselves with fewer horses. Notably, the demand for these horses remained relatively constant, or in some cases, may even have increased,” the researchers write.

The combination of reduced supply and stable demand has led to an “upward pressure on prices,” they add.

SUPER TRAINERS

The researchers also tackle one of the bete-noirs of the industry–the issue of so-called “super trainers.”

Over the last 20 years, the industry has lost nearly 55% of its trainers. Most have been “micro-trainers” and “midsize” trainers–in other words, those with between 1-10 discreet horses, and between 11-40 discreet horses respectively.

Fewer races, horses, and owners invariably lead to fewer trainers, the researchers reasonably deduce. At the same time, existing stables have consolidated size.

The average horse-per-trainer ratio has grown from 8.2 horses per trainer in 2003 to 11.1 in 2022.

“With owners preferring trainers with more horses, the micro-trainers are losing out on potential clients and struggling to maintain a sustainable business,” the researchers warn. “Many of them may have decided to exit the industry altogether due to the diminishing demand for their services.”

At the opposite end of the scale are “super trainers” who operate stables with 80 or more horses.

The number of super trainers has stayed relatively constant in the midst of declining trainer numbers. In 2003 there were 123 super trainers, and in 2022 there were 114.

These findings mirror the TDN's own analysis of the training colony in California. While the number of active trainers in California almost halved between 2007 and 2020, the number of trainers with 100-plus horses making starts stayed fairly constant.

At the same time, the Yale researchers found that the nation's super trainers have significantly increased their percentage share of total available winnings over 20 years, from 27% in 2003 to 41% in 2022.

This means that last year, 114 “super trainers”–just 3% of the total number of active trainers–accrued 41% of the total available winnings.

Intriguingly, the researchers argue that this yawning disparity between racing's select few top-tier trainers and the rest is mirrored in other professional sports, like golf and football.

“Horse racing is a unique sport as it does not have many similarities to popular sports in the country, but so is golf, and despite being unique, they are both sports that have similar issues that must be overcome to participate,” the researchers write.

“Neither is easy to stay in, especially if you are not in the top percent,” they add. “It is hard to win, hard to profit, and hard to compete, but that is exactly what makes them both sports in the first place.”

WHAT TO DO?

The report has other intriguing findings, including how the income disparity seen among trainers is reflected between racetracks, with only a select few tracks thriving and offering competitive purses.

Ultimately, said Appelbaum, the report could and perhaps should trigger a couple of key industry responses.

One would be to decrease the regulatory burden “as much as possible,” especially when it comes to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act and to sports wagering.

“The current regulatory regime both in New York and around the country is really a bit redundant and not in step with the current sports wagering environment,” he said.

The other would be to regionalize circuits of racing to provide for “better planning of races between tracks and jurisdictions,” he said.

At the end of the day, the report should also spur more of these in-depth analyses into the economic building blocks of the sport.

“Why is it three college-age interns are doing this?” Appelbaum added. “Why aren't we doing more of this ourselves?”

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The candidates are as follows: Tina Marie Bond (President), Chad Summers (President), Andrew Aaron (Owner/Director), Tom Bellhouse (Owner/Director), Kevin Brady (Owner/Director), Daniel Collins (Owner/Director), Matthew Cutair (Owner/Director), Sanford Goldfarb (Owner/Director), Michael Iannaconi (Owner/Director), Patrick Lewis (Owner/Director), Steven Rocco (Owner/Director), Vincent Vivolo, Jr. (Owner/Director), Dr. Jennifer White (Owner/Director), Aron Yagoda (Owner/Director), Jena Antonucci (Trainer), Amira Chichakly (Trainer), David Donk (Trainer), David Duggan (Trainer), Robert Falcone, Jr.(Trainer), James Ferraro (Trainer), Leah Gyarmati (Trainer), Linda Rice (Trainer) and John Terranova (Trainer).

The ballots for the NYTHA election were mailed Nov. 10 and voting for the NYTHA Election will take place, in person or by proxy, at the NYTHA Annual Meeting, to be held Dec. 27.

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A General Nominating Meeting will be held at Belmont Park Friday, Oct. 6, to announce candidates for the 2023 New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association Board election, NYTHA announced Saturday. The NYTHA Board consists of the President, five Owner Directors, and five Trainer or Owner/Trainer Directors.

Nominations can be submitted in person at the meeting or via email to election2023@nytha.com.

CANDIDATES FOR NOMINATION OR TO SERVE AS A NYTHA DIRECTOR MUST:

(A) Be a voting member of NYTHA in good standing (licensed as an owner or trainer by the New York State Gaming Commission, and listed as a Thoroughbred racehorse owner or trainer in the Equibase owner or trainer records and in an official track program, OR own a minimum of 5% of a Thoroughbred racehorse that starts in a qualifying race within the jurisdiction of this Association) for at least one year immediately preceding the date of her/his nomination.

(B) Remain a member in good standing for the entire term of her/his directorship.

(C) Have started one or more horses a minimum of five times at a NYRA track while a member of NYTHA in the one year immediately preceding the date of her/his nomination.

CANDIDATES FOR NOMINATION OR TO SERVE AS NYTHA PRESIDENT MUST:

(A) Be a voting member of NYTHA in good standing (licensed as an owner or trainer by the New York State Gaming Commission, and listed as a Thoroughbred racehorse owner or trainer in the Equibase owner or trainer records and in an official track program, OR own a minimum of 5% of a Thoroughbred racehorse that starts in a qualifying race within the jurisdiction of this Association) for at least three years immediately preceding the date of her/his nomination.

(B) Remain a member in good standing for the entire term of her/his presidency.

(C) Have started one or more horses a minimum of five times while a member of NYTHA in each of the three years immediately preceding the date of her/his nomination.

Candidates will be announced in November. The election is scheduled to take place Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2023.

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In addition, in an effort to make it easier to acquire Thoroughbreds via claims, another proposed change would extend time periods for owners to be eligible to claim horses.

Those measures, plus several other tweaks to the “Who may make claim” rule 4038.1, were advanced by the New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC) at Thursday's monthly meeting.

There was zero discussion among commissioners prior to the unanimous voice vote.

The proposed changes must first be published in the state register and then go through a public commentary period before the NYSGC takes a final vote on them at a future commission meeting.

According to a brief written by NYSGC general counsel Edmund Burns that was included in the informational packet for the Aug. 3 meeting, some horse owners and their representatives have communicated to the commission staff that the current claiming rules “need revisions.”

Commission staff met with personnel from the New York Racing Association (NYRA), Finger Lakes, the New York Thoroughbred Breeders (NYTB), and the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (NYTHA) in crafting the language changes, Burns wrote.

With respect to the time that a claimed horse must remain in-state, Burns wrote that “current rules prohibit a claimed horse from running outside New York for a period of 30 days. The proposal would extend that general prohibition to 60 days, which would mitigate entry shortages that have been experienced at New York tracks. An exception is proposed for horses claimed at Finger Lakes Racetrack toward the end of the Finger Lakes racing season, in which case the prohibition would be limited to 30 days from the end of the Finger Lakes racing season.”

On the time extensions for owners to be eligible to claim, the current version of the rule states that an owner must have “nominated a starter in the previous or current race meet.”

The proposed rewording would change the requirement to owners who have “started a horse: (1) within the previous 120 days, including the race in which such horse started, in a race meeting of the licensed or franchised association; or (2) in the current or previous race meeting.”

New owners who have not previously been licensed would also get a time extension.

Currently, a newly licensed owner “may apply to the stewards for a certificate authorizing him or her to claim one horse during the next 30 racing days following the issuance of the certificate.” The existing version of that rule also states that the stewards “may grant an extension” to that time period “if deemed appropriate.”

The proposed new language would change the “if deemed appropriate” part to an extension of “30 racing days if the certificate holder had entered a claim but had lost” the shake.

“NYRA conducts race meetings of varying lengths and horse populations,” Burns wrote in the brief. “Consequently, the current rule, which requires an owner, in order to be eligible to claim, to have entered a starter in the previous race meeting, precludes some otherwise active owners from claiming horses.

“Some owners may not have participated in a previous meeting because of the meeting's short duration or because racing opportunities had been incompatible with the owner's stable of horses. The proposed rule would address these concerns by allowing claimants who have raced on a circuit within 120 days, which would increase the number of owners qualified to make claims,” Burns wrote.

“Additionally, due to the frequency of multiple claims on a single horse, it is possible that someone actively trying to claim may not succeed in acquiring a horse within 30 racing days, which the current rule requires,” Burns wrote.

“Allowing 30 additional days for holders of a certificate of eligibility would provide an owner with an opportunity to claim when the owner has not been successful within the first 30 days of a race meeting, because the owner has lost the opportunity to claim to another claimant when multiple claims had been made on the same horse. Creating an opportunity to extend claiming eligibility for unsuccessful claimants would allow these owners additional chances to claim a horse,” Burns wrote.

Additionally, current NYSGC regulations provide that when a horse is claimed from a particular value class, the horses is ineligible to start in the same value class for 30 days.

According to the brief written by Burns, “A review of recent data, however, indicates that horses generally run on a 28-day schedule and condition books generally schedule a value class every 28 days. Under current regulations, a claimant who wants to start a horse again in the same class may be effectively forced to wait 56 days from the date of the claim. The position has been advanced that such period is unnecessarily long and causes issues for owners, trainers and the racetrack, which seeks to fill competitive races.”

The solution, according to the proposed rewording, will be to make the regulation state that, “If a horse is claimed the horse shall not start in a claiming race for a period of 20 days from the date of the claim for less than 25 percent more than the amount for which such horse was claimed.”

A new clause would be inserted that further states, “For a period of 10 days thereafter, a horse is eligible to start for a claiming price equal to or greater than the price at which the horse had been claimed. On the 31st day, the horse may start in a claiming race for any price.”

Burns wrote that “By reducing the requisite waiting period, owners will have a greater opportunity to start a horse for the price at which the horse had been claimed, given that the owners would be able to gain access to races that had already been written in the track's condition book 28 days in advance.”

Rice penalty revision on target for Sept.

Separately, NYSGC Executive Director Robert Williams detailed the expected timeline for commissioners to revisit a possible penalty for trainer Linda Rice, who on June 8 had a New York Supreme Court Appellate Division rule that a three-year banishment imposed by the NYSGC was “entirely unwarranted.”

Linda Rice | Sarah Andrew

As TDN reported back in June, the Gaming Commission fined Rice $50,000 and revoked her license for three years in 2021 after investigating claims that Rice received favorable treatment from the NYRA racing office and that the racing office was releasing to her the names and past performances of horses that had already been entered in races, giving her an unfair advantage. It was further alleged that Rice had paid racing officials in exchange for the information, a charge she denied. She did admit to routinely giving members of the racing department, as well as the gate crew, Christmas presents.

Williams said that the court ruling upheld the commission's determination that the “improper practices” rule had been violated and that the court rejected Rice's constitutional claim. But the court overturned the three-year revocation, and sent the matter back to the commission to reassess the penalty “with the constraint that any reassessed penalty cannot contain a license revocation.”

Williams said the case materials will be recirculated to each of the commissioners, and that both the commission's counsel and Rice's legal team have been asked to update their post-hearing briefs with respect to penalty recommendations.

“The matter should be set for consideration at the commission's September meeting,” Williams said.

Brian O'Dwyer, the NYSGC chairman, said, “I urge the commissioners that, obviously, the Rice matter is something that we need to look at. In particular, three of the commissioners are new to the matter, having been appointed after the penalty had been assessed. Obviously, we're under court mandate to reassess that penalty, and I know that we'll all take that very seriously.”

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“There is no new rule,” wrote Brad Maoine, Director of Communications for the New York State Gaming Commission in response to TDN's request for information about the new posting on the overnight. “The intent of the message is (to) ensure that the betting public has access to accurate information regarding equipment changes in a timely fashion.”

But a reading of the NYSGC's rule 4033.8 reveals no mention of a horse's equipment, and reads only, “Only equipment specifically approved by the stewards shall be worn or carried by a jockey or a horse in a race.” There is no mention of equipment changes for horses after the publishing of the overnight in the ruling as stated on the Gaming Commission's website.

Trainers, horsemen's representatives and the NYRA expressed confusion over what the impetus for the rule was, and concern over the repercussions.

Right now, NYRA races are drawn either five, three or two days in advance of the race, with any late changes announced on the t.v. and general address system at the track, and off.

“NYRA has mechanisms in place to inform the betting public in the event of a late equipment change,” said NYRA spokesman Patrick McKenna. “This new rule does nothing to further protect horseplayers and will likely penalize owners for administrative errors that can easily be corrected in real time.”

“I think there are several issues with it,” said trainer Todd Pletcher. “My first concern would be over an occasional shoe situation. We've had scenarios where a horse sheds a frog and we train the horse in an aluminum pad, and we try to keep it on to complete their training, which is usually right up to the day of the race. If you want to make that shoe change you sometimes literally don't know until game day. Entries in most jurisdictions are becoming further and further out, so that's one concern.”

Secondly, he said, “everyone makes mistakes occasionally, and maybe you made an honest mistake and didn't enter with blinkers, and caught it after the overnight came out, or maybe the racing office made a mistake and didn't note blinkers on. It seems as if there should be a 24-hour grace period.”

Trainer David Donk conceded that in a perfect world, trainers would and should indicate changes of equipment at entry time, but that the current system of taking entries by phone, rather than by computer with mandatory fields filled out, made it more likely for errors to be made.

“Why can't I enter online?” said Donk. “Listen, it is the trainer's responsibility. I probably don't have a real problem with it, but is it the commission overstepping? I don't see where it's coming from, and why there can't be a grace period? Common sense says there should be some compromise.”

Donk said that he imagined that the equipment changes hinted at would be blinker changes or the addition of a bar shoe. Attorney Drew Mollica—who has represented numerous clients in conflicts with the Gaming Commission, including two currently–said that he envisioned that the rule would not only make it more likely to cause unnecessary scratches, but could be subject to legal challenges.

“No shoe changes after entry puts the horse in jeopardy and hurts the track,” said Mollica. “Say a horse pops a small quarter crack and needs a bar shoe. If that is announced, does that not protect the owner, the public, the horse and the track? But under this rule, he must scratch. Why?”

“And how about blinkers?” he continued. “Say a horse breezes on the day after entry and the trainer thinks blinkers would help, but now has to scratch or run without equipment that could benefit his performance because the new rule says he must scratch or not wear them? Who does this help? In a game that has enough natural landmines, do we have to plant more?”

Will Alempijevic, the executive director of the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association, replied in an email, “NYTHA is currently engaged in discussions with both the NYSGC and NYRA to understand the issues that precipitated the change.  We will continue to play an active role to see if we can collectively come up with proposed solutions to everyone's mutual benefit.”

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Kumagai's team created a dynamic model that focused on horses' forward versus lateral speed and examined the results of sustained momentum and velocity within races. The team also studied jockey performance and how that would impact a horse's running style in addition to biometric data, leading to the possibility of calculating a horse's welfare and injury probability.

“We're honored to be named the winners of the inaugural Big Data Derby competition,” Kumagai said. “Our team primarily works in financial analytics and hockey statistics, so working with horse racing data has been a unique challenge which allowed us to apply our skills to a relatively new and unexplored domain.”

The Big Data Derby was launched with the goal of analyzing the vast amounts of data available to racing organizations, and to understand how the results of those studies could impact traditional methods of racing and training. The competition was sponsored NYRA and the NYTHA in partnership with the Kentucky Thoroughbred Association, Equibase, The Jockey Club, Breeders' Cup and the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association (TOBA).

Other models in the competition shed light on injury prevention, jockey decision making metrics, race tactics, track bias and more. Kumagai, a Data Science intern at Zelus Analytics, was previously part of a team that won the 2022 Big Data Bowl offered by the National Football League. The competition was judged by data analyst Rob Bingel, Rhodes College Economics Professor, horseplayer and thoroughbred owner Marshall Gramm, and Craig Milkowski of TimeformUS.

An open notebook of user-created content and data can be viewed at: https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/big-data-derby-2022/code.

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“When we started TAKE2, we required the USEF-rated horse shows to complete an application to affiliate with our program,” TAKE2 Executive Director Andy Belfiore explained.

“Unfortunately, there were horse shows that offered the rated Thoroughbred Divisions but did not submit the application and as a result, we had League members who missed out on points. We felt it was in the best interest of our League members, and would best help us fulfill our mission of promoting second careers for retired racehorses, if we modified our rules, discontinuing the application requirement and expanding the TAKE2 network.”

Celebrating the 10th Anniversary in 2022, TAKE2 has grown from just a handful of horse shows in three states to more than 400 horse shows nationwide. The program was created by the late Rick Violette Jr., then president of the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (NYTHA), in 2012 to put the spotlight on the success of Thoroughbreds in the show ring.

“Rick would be overwhelmed by the support TAKE2 has received not only from the racing industry, but also from the many Thoroughbred lovers in the sport horse world,” Belfiore said, adding, “We encourage horse shows to brand the rated Thoroughbred Divisions as TAKE2, so we can continue to raise awareness and create second career opportunities for retired racehorses.”

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