“It's an honor to be elected president of such an esteemed collective,” said Bond, who is the first woman ever to helm the organization. “THA is at the forefront of collaborative decision-making and policy implementation on issues such as racehorse aftercare, equine safety and welfare, and protecting the integrity of our sport. I look forward to leading the organization as it addresses the challenges that horsemen and women face on local, regional, and national levels.”

In other THA officer elections, Chris Block and David Richardson were named vice presidents; Michael Musto was named treasurer; and Bessie Gruwell will serve as secretary.

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“Andy has a wealth of experience in all facets of the racing industry,” said newly elected NYTHA President Tina Bond. “In addition to her knowledge base, Andy's devotion to equine welfare and aftercare are especially crucial in this period of our sport. We are very pleased that she will be rejoining the NYTHA team.”

Belfiore started her career in racing on the backstretch at Belmont Park, working as a hotwalker, groom and exercise rider, before joining the Rick Violette stable as assistant trainer. After six years as Violette's assistant, she moved to the frontside at the track, and spent five years in the communications and marketing departments at the New York Racing Association.

Belfiore left NYRA in 1993 to take the post as editor in chief at the Thoroughbred Daily News. During her tenure, the TDN grew from a four-page publication with just a few hundred subscribers to a leader in the Thoroughbred industry. Named Director of Communications for NYTHA in December, 2011, and Executive Director in September, 2015, she was instrumental in the creation of the TAKE2 and TAKE THE LEAD Programs.

She returns to New York after serving as Executive Director of the Florida Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association for two years.

“This is an exciting time to be a part of the racing industry in New York,” said Belfiore. “I thank the NYTHA Board and President Tina Bond for the opportunity, and I am looking forward to working with such a great team.”

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Santa Anita, Murray wrote, was an “extravagance of beauty.” It was also a well-oiled money-spinner. Huge purses lured the best horses to Los Angeles, and the best horses lured the biggest crowds, their pockets brimming with the spoils of a post-war industrial boom transforming this callow cow-town into a maven of modernity.

“One day (Handicap Day in 1947), so many people showed up (85,500) that a crisis was created (the plumbing caved in under the strain) and the card almost had to be canceled,” Murray wrote.

This year's opening day at Santa Anita tells a different tale. A crowd of over 37,000 contributed to the “best handle ever among a total of 17 opening dates conducted on a Tuesday,” as the track's publicity department put it.

Putting inflation adjustments aside for the moment, that still constitutes a 30% drop from last year's total–the sort of back-foot number stakeholders desperately wanted to avoid as the track embarks upon another grueling six-month marathon into one of the most consequential years yet for the state's racing industry.

Amid an economic landscape of consolidation and contraction–which gives the distinct impression of a giant puzzle set where the pieces don't quite fit together–decisions will be made that will set this ship's course for the foreseeable future. Icebergs abound.

The compass guiding many of these decisions is this spinning dial: Can a sustainable long-term racing circuit in Northern California be pieced together in the void left by Golden Gate Fields?

TDN tried unsuccessfully in recent weeks to reach California Association of Racing Fairs (CARF) executive director, Larry Swartzlander. The LA Times, however, this week quoted Swartzlander as saying that he was “60%” certain a deal could be reached whereby the fair circuit would take over Golden Gate's dates, though would likely reduce them from 132 days a year to 103.

Tom “Bomber” Doutrich, CARF racing secretary, told the TDN he's “hopeful” an announcement about any such plan will arrive early in 2024. “There are two things you can say about CARF,” he added. “We need to get the purses right. And we've got to get a facility that we can turn into a top-class facility. We're working on that right now.”

NORCAL

To say that time is of the essence when it comes to these negotiations does a gross disservice to ticking clocks everywhere, as well as to the heads of racing operations juggling families, employees and their own tentative futures.

Golden Gate Fields is scheduled to race through June 9, 2024, after which the facility is set to close permanently. Next year's fair schedule is currently set to close out with a fall fair meet at Fresno from Oct. 2 through the 13th.

In the aftermath of the announced closure of Golden Gate, Swartzlander made several proposals for a restructured Northern California circuit, including a permanent base split between Santa Rosa and Cal Expo, or only at the latter track.

But such plans would require reaching an agreement with California's harness racing industry, which only last year extended its lease of operations of the Cal Expo Harness racetrack until May 2030.

Jack Liebau (right) with Tim Yakteen | Benoit

In the event no concrete proposal for Northern California materializes, a legislative fix may be sought to expand the menu of Thoroughbred races offered at Los Alamitos, said Bill Nader, president of the Thoroughbred Owners of California (TOC).

“We're on the clock and we're moving into 2024, so we have come up with alignment between the three tracks in the south for horses in the north to have suitable opportunities to compete in the south at Los Alamitos, Del Mar or Santa Anita,” said Nader.

This “alignment,” explained Nader, would include a statutory change to permit Los Alamitos–outside of their scheduled Thoroughbred meets–to stage Thoroughbred races beyond the current limit: 4 1/2 furlong races capped at a $5,000 claiming price.

“Provided there's no operator or plan that comes forth in the north, it would allow for those horses to remain in California and have a suitable opportunity to compete within their own state seamlessly. At least we have that,” said Nader, about such a proposal.

According to Jack Liebau, vice president of Los Alamitos, a legislative fix to go into immediate effect–as opposed to the start of January 2025, like most bills passed next year–needs an “urgency clause” requiring a two-thirds vote by the legislature.

“I think we can get the legislative change if it's fully supported by the industry as a whole. I don't know why anybody would oppose that,” said Liebau. “The devil, of course, will be in the details.”

According to Liebau, Los Alamitos can accommodate around 300 additional horses. In Golden Gate right now, there are around 1,150 horses.

But how motivated are trainers currently stabled at Golden Gate to funnel their horses south, in the event plans to furnish an alternative Northern calendar fall apart?

Answers are buffeted by other gusty headwinds. Purses at Golden Gate's final meet have been slashed by 25%, a result of the purse account being overdrawn by $3.1 million. (Nader told the TDN that Santa Anita's purse account is also in the red to the tune of $3.7 million)

In January, Berkeley City Council might vote on an ordinance that could essentially close Golden Gate before its anticipated June curtain call.

Ed Moger, a leading trainer at Golden Gate, recently said that while a 25% purse cut would likely spur some barns to cross state lines and relocate to Turf Paradise, he might shift a significant portion of his horses to Santa Anita instead.

“It's tougher to win a race at Santa Anita,” said Moger, at the time. “I'll have to play it by ear.”

But not everyone appears as ready to pack up box and truck for a trip south–not trainer Tim McCanna, who said that such a wholesale move would come only after every other alternative had been exhausted.

Blaine Wright | Benoit

“Seventy-five percent of the horses in the north won't fit the south,” McCanna explained, estimating that about 15 of his 40-horse Golden Gate string might suit the Southern circuit. “Most of the trainers can't go there either,” he added, alluding to the increased costs of Southern California living.

McCanna said he's “quite hopeful” an alternative Northern California circuit can be pieced together. But he also feels as though the Northern California trainer colony has been largely ignored by industry leadership during the travails of the past year.

“We were ambushed by this,” said McCanna, adding that an ownership group had recently moved five of his horses to Turfway Park, because of the purse cuts.

“The mood around the track is that it feels like we've been shot in the back,” said trainer Blaine Wright, who currently has around 50 horses at Golden Gate. “My clientele is not very happy with this purse reduction.”

Like McCanna, Wright is playing it by ear, hoping that in the New Year, news of a new viable Northern California circuit will trickle through.

If it doesn't, Wright said that he's already warned two of his staunchest patrons that the tough economics of maintaining a SoCal barn might behoove them to shut up shop.

“I said to them, 'if you don't want to race on the West Coast and you'd like to go to the Midwest or East where things are happening good, that would be fine,'” said Wright. “But I warned them, 'if you want to stay on the West Coast, my advice would be to get out of the business because the horses we have aren't going to do at Santa Anita.'”

Wright added: “How do you tell the people who have basically made your living for 16 years to get out of the business? I'm just trying to be truthful when I'm telling them I think the writing's on the wall here and the end's coming soon.”

BREEDERS

Back in August, long-time owner and breeder, Nick Alexander, warned the consolidation of racing in the south would be a body blow for the state's breeding industry. Has his thinking evolved since?

“No, is the short answer,” said Alexander, who added that he still expects to maintain his 35-strong broodmare band through next year.

Adrian Gonzalez | Fasig-Tipton

From a squad of five racehorses previously at Golden Gate, Alexander has shifted three south, and plans to do the same with one of the other two horses remaining. More broadly, he said he's “not optimistic” an alternative Northern racing circuit can be formed.

“It's a damn shame for the breeders up there,” said Alexander. “I'm 81 years old. If I was fifty and had kids in college and was trying to be a trainer in Northern California, what the hell would I do?”

Adrian Gonzalez of Checkmate Farm-a 66-acre ranch in Parkfield, California-is one of those trying to build a business for his young family.

Of Gonzalez's 30-strong broodmare band, about half are headed to Kentucky stallions, he said, and he's in two minds whether to bring them back to California to foal.

“If there's no commercial market left in California, we need to make sure our stock is something that can be sought after in other markets,” Gonzalez said. “Most of our clients are doing something similar,” he added.

Given this trend, Gonzalez said he's concerned about a sharp dip in Cal-breds in three years–what would be especially troubling if the state racing industry can be fortified against further erosion in the meantime, he added.

“The long-term impacts are definitely something we need to be focused on,” said California Thoroughbred Breeding Association (CTBA) president, Doug Burge.

As positives, Burge singled out how active California buyers were at Keeneland's November breeding stock sale. While Golden Gate's purses have been cut, he added, lucrative Cal-bred bonuses remain in place.

“I think in the future we'll see a major focus on quality,” Burge said, pointing to the recent run high-profile successes for horses bred in the state, including a 1-2 finish in the recent G1 La Brea S. for Cal-breds. “But we obviously need the numbers as well.”

Indeed, while California's foal crop has steadily declined–by nearly 25% between 2012 and 2021–Cal-breds have been playing an ever more important role in propping up the California racing calendar.

During Santa Anita's 2022-2023 six-month meet, Cal-breds made up about 37% of all individual starts, and Cal-bred races constituted more than 20% of the overall races carded.

Is there a number of foals bred annually below which the state's breeding industry becomes an unsustainable model?

Tom Clark | Jill Williams

“That depends on how much racing we'll have here in the next few years,” Burge said. “When you announce the closure of a major racetrack, it's obviously going to have a major impact.”

Tom Clark, the owner and manager of Rancho San Miguel–a mainstay of the state's breeding industry–estimates double digit declines in the number of mares bred in the state next year. Last year, 1,874 mares were bred to California stallions. Twenty years prior, the number was about three-times that.

“The response so far from clients generally has been to cut back or exit the breeding industry in the state,” said Clark. “The only exceptions are some of the larger farms–Barton [Thoroughbreds] and John Harris and Loveacres [Ranch]–who have continued to invest in broodmares for their own account.”

While the popularity of Clark's stallions means Rancho San Miguel has so far been fairly insulated from the worst of the declines, he said, unintended consequences are percolating through.

“I've got about 20 mares people want me to find homes for,” said Clark. “I just gave three away to new homes as of this morning. It's happening.”

Which begs the question: How will recent events impact California's flagship off-track Thoroughbred rehoming program?

“When they first announced that Golden Gate Fields would close, I had three different owners call me, and I took in three different horses,” said Lucinda Lovitt, executive director of the California Retirement Management Account (CARMA). “They didn't know what the future was, and they just wanted to make sure their horse had a good place.”

As the sport rolls into the New Year, however, Lovitt said she doesn't anticipate a situation where California's aftercare facilities are swamped with urgent requests.

That said, “I would expect we will continue to see what we've seen this past year, which is less space available in aftercare charities, and higher demand for these fewer slots,” said Lovitt.

STATISTICS

It was the author Fletcher Knebel who made the observation, “smoking is one of the leading causes of statistics.”

If only horse racing could so readily dismiss its numerical DNA.

This recent New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (NYTHA) backed study by a cohort of Yale undergrads highlighted how a common feature of a contracting market is consolidation, and how this trend is impacting everything from the training population to racetrack management.

Indeed, nationally over the last 20 years, the industry has lost nearly 55% of its trainers, they found. Most have been “micro-trainers” and “midsize” trainers with a maximum 40 discreet horses respectively.

At the opposite end of the scale are “super trainers” who operate stables with 80 or more horses.

Bill Nader | Horsephotos

The number of super trainers has stayed relatively constant in the midst of declining trainer numbers. In 2003 there were 123 super trainers, and in 2022 there were 114.

The same trends play out in California, with the bottom end getting clobbered while the top end stays remarkably strong.

According to numbers crunched for the TDN using DRF chart data, the number of trainers making at least one individual start in California decreased by nearly 50% between 2007 and 2022.

The trainers with 20 or less individual annual starters decreased a similar 50% during that period.

The number of trainers with at least 100 individual annual starters in California, however, has remained around the 8-10 mark since 2009.

Last year, nine trainers with at least 100 individual annual starters in California–just 3% of the total trainer colony–accrued 35% of the total prize money and made 21% of the total starts.

In another worrying trend, training in California is becoming less and less of a young person's game.

According to data put together by the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB), the median age of a licensed trainer in California was 52 in 2003. As of this year, that statistic has matured to 61.

The guiding light behind these numbers is field size, which in turn drives handle, which in turn fuels purses. Field size has been especially problematic during Santa Anita's six-month winter-spring meet these past five years, though it has rebounded very slightly.

For the six-month meet in 2021-2022, the combined dirt and turf field size was 7.12. For the 2022-2023 meet, the combined field size was 7.2.

With that in mind, Nader said he doesn't expect the recently announced purse cuts to make a dent into the $3.7 million Santa Anita purse overpayment.

“I don't think it'll reduce at all, based on the current trends in business. If anything, the overpayment might even go up a little bit,” said Nader. “That's why the wish list for 2024 is to secure a secondary source of income to preserve and protect the purse structure and the industry going forward.”

But what could that be?

Twin sports wagering measures were torpedoed on last year's state ballot, casting dark clouds over future efforts. And though horse racing's standing in Sacramento has improved since the nadir of the 2019 Santa Anita welfare crisis, how likely is legislative support, even for an industry estimated to directly contribute over $4.5 billion to the state's economy, and over 77,700 jobs?

“It's incumbent upon all of us here to try to get something where the state legislature provides some type of recognition to the industry, and a level of support–again, maybe not the same advantages the other competing states enjoy–but something that gives us a chance to compete,” said Nader, declining, however, to speculate upon any specifics of what that “recognition” might look like.

Furthermore, should the heightened impact from the state's super trainers on field size during a period of such accelerated contraction be high up on the TOC's agenda for next year?

“In terms of trying to get more competitive field sizes and better business results, it's better if there's more parity. Sure. But how you manufacture that, it's tricky,” said Nader. “It's hard to say to an owner, 'you need to give your horse to this trainer and not that trainer.' It has to be carefully thought through.”

SANTA ANITA

The variables weighing in on the future of the sport are–for want of a less utilitarian phrase–multifactorial. Just take the topic of Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW).

CAW players constitute a small group of high-volume and largely anonymous gamblers with an outsized impact on the betting markets—including in California—due to the use of sophisticated wagering tools. Because of their high stakes play, they're offered inducements in the form of rebates and reduced takeout rates largely not available to the average punter.

Last summer, Del Mar introduced measures to help curb CAW play. By the meet's end, Del Mar's total handle was down some 10% compared to the year prior, according to the DRF.

The TDN asked the CHRB for a breakdown of CAW play per-pool for last summer's meet at Del Mar. The agency said it does not yet have those granular figures.

Santa Anita's new Tapeta surface being installed | Santa Anita

But the CHRB provided a total breakdown of handle per betting location, including from the most influential of these computer syndicates, the Elite Turf Club, a Curacao-based company owned by The Stronach Group and NYRA Bets LLC.

According to this data, Elite Turf Club total handle during Del Mar's summer meet dropped 23.7% from 2022 to 2023: $116.9 million last year compared to $89.1 million this year.

How industry leaders in California manage the thorny topic of CAW play next year, therefore, will be a key driver of revenues.

For many stakeholders, another key tangible will be the roll-out of TSG's much vaunted $30 million-plus investment into the Southern California racing furniture, including new stabling at Santa Anita, new tracks at the facility, and industry support funds.

The replacement of Santa Anita's dirt training track with Tapeta is scheduled for a mid-January finish. According to Craig Fravel, chief executive office at 1/ST Racing, there are tentative plans to modify one of the barns at Santa Anita next summer.

The other big-ticket items slated for development in 2024–including a new one-mile turf chute, an equine swimming pool and horse exercisers–have been put on hold, however.

“We've wanted to focus on getting the synthetic surface done. The price tag on that has come in higher than we had expected,” said Fravel. “Right now, we're just very much focused on the racing calendar, trying to enhance the prospects for horses moving down here and improving the product in Southern California.”

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“I am honored to be chosen as the next president of NYTHA,” said Bond. “It is an important time for our industry and the future of horse racing. I look forward to working with NYRA and the New York breeders to continue the great work of keeping New York racing at the top of our industry. We have the best owners, the best trainers, the best employees, and soon we will have the best facilities. I want to thank Joe Appelbaum and our past board members for all of their work and support. And I want to congratulate our new board–I look forward to working with all of you.”

Also in NYTHA election results released Wednesday, owner/directors to the board are: Tom Bellhouse, Dan Collins, Sanford Goldfarb, Dr. Jennifer White, Aron Yagoda, and alternate Andrew Aaron.

Trainer/Trainer-Owner directors are: Jena Antonucci, David Donk, David Duggan, James Ferraro, John Terranova, and alternate Linda Rice.

“I'd like to recognize everyone who put themselves out there to run for a position,” said outgoing NYTHA president Joe Appelbaum. “NYTHA's strength is in our community and the more that participate, the better. Good luck to the incoming board, they are going to need our support.”

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A General Nominating Meeting will be held at Belmont Park Friday, Oct. 6, to announce candidates for the 2023 New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association Board election, NYTHA announced Saturday. The NYTHA Board consists of the President, five Owner Directors, and five Trainer or Owner/Trainer Directors.

Nominations can be submitted in person at the meeting or via email to election2023@nytha.com.

CANDIDATES FOR NOMINATION OR TO SERVE AS A NYTHA DIRECTOR MUST:

(A) Be a voting member of NYTHA in good standing (licensed as an owner or trainer by the New York State Gaming Commission, and listed as a Thoroughbred racehorse owner or trainer in the Equibase owner or trainer records and in an official track program, OR own a minimum of 5% of a Thoroughbred racehorse that starts in a qualifying race within the jurisdiction of this Association) for at least one year immediately preceding the date of her/his nomination.

(B) Remain a member in good standing for the entire term of her/his directorship.

(C) Have started one or more horses a minimum of five times at a NYRA track while a member of NYTHA in the one year immediately preceding the date of her/his nomination.

CANDIDATES FOR NOMINATION OR TO SERVE AS NYTHA PRESIDENT MUST:

(A) Be a voting member of NYTHA in good standing (licensed as an owner or trainer by the New York State Gaming Commission, and listed as a Thoroughbred racehorse owner or trainer in the Equibase owner or trainer records and in an official track program, OR own a minimum of 5% of a Thoroughbred racehorse that starts in a qualifying race within the jurisdiction of this Association) for at least three years immediately preceding the date of her/his nomination.

(B) Remain a member in good standing for the entire term of her/his presidency.

(C) Have started one or more horses a minimum of five times while a member of NYTHA in each of the three years immediately preceding the date of her/his nomination.

Candidates will be announced in November. The election is scheduled to take place Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2023.

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Finley, who has been a member of The Jockey Club since 2019, at the helm of West Point campaigned either solely or in partnership Horse of the Year Flightline (Tapit), GI Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming (Bodemeister), and a number of other Grade I winners. Finley also serves as chairman of the New York Race Track Chaplaincy, the board of directors for the Thoroughbred Charities of America and New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association, and the board of trustees for the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association.

The other members of the Jockey Club Board of Stewards are Barbara Banke, Dr. Larry Bramlage, Louis A. Cella, William S. Farish Jr., Stuart S. Janney III (chair), William M. Lear Jr., and R. Alex Rankin.

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The featured race on Thursday's card will be the $125,000 Rick Violette, a 1 1/16-mile turf test for New York-bred sophomores named for the late trainer and NYTHA President who spearheaded the creation of the TAKE2 Second Career Thoroughbred Program and TAKE THE LEAD Retirement Program.

Representatives from Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance-accredited organizations will be on-site to educate both racing fans and the general public about the importance of responsible aftercare efforts, including Akindale Thoroughbred Rescue, ACTT Naturally, Equine Advocates, Lollipop Farm, Lucky Orphans, New Vocations, Old Friends at Cabin Creek, ReRun, Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation, and Therapeutic Horses of Saratoga.

New York Thoroughbred Aftercare Day will begin with an on-track demonstration of retired racehorses showcasing the skills learned in their second careers. New Vocations will be the first to demonstrate the Thoroughbred's athleticism with a jumping display prior to the day's races, and ReRun will follow after the second race with flatwork/dressage exhibition.

The Horse Sense stall, located just outside of the Saratoga grandstand, will feature retired racehorses from Old Friends at Cabin Creek between 11:30 a.m.-1:30 p.m. and from the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation between 1:45 p.m. and 3:45 p.m.

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Klima will be assisting owners, trainers, and their staff with information and guidance on all areas related to participation in New York racing, including licensing, registration, and credentialing. Additional responsibilities will include administering and supporting the New York Trainers Health Insurance Program (NYTHIP), the New York Jockey Injury Compensation Fund (NYJICF), the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA), and developing a new owners program.

“We are delighted to have Abigail aboard at NYTHA,” said Executive Director Will Alempijevic. “In addition to having years of hands-on experience with horses, she has worked directly with horsemen, and we are looking forward to having such a dedicated team member assist our community.”

A lifelong Virginian, Klima joins NYTHA after serving as the Veterinary Manager for the Virginia Racing Commission, and she is currently pursuing a Pre-Law and Policy degree from Liberty University.

“The first time I ever went to a racetrack was at Aqueduct and I instantly fell in love,” Klima said. “It's really a dream come true to be afforded the opportunity to get to do what I love every day and call it 'work.' I am passionate about promoting and preserving the future and integrity of the sport. NYTHA offers many benevolent programs, and maximizing participation is vital.”

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We Are NY Horse Racing, a coalition of small businesses, labor unions, non-profits, and trade associations aligned to amplify the sport of horse racing's importance to the New York State economy, has released an interactive map visualizing the scope of horse racing's statewide economic impact. In addition to New York's 11 Thoroughbred and harness tracks, this new map displays 249 farms and businesses connected to the sport of horse racing.

“This new map clearly shows that upstate and downstate, New York is horse racing country through and through,” said Jack Sterne, We Are NY Horse Racing spokesperson. “Horse racing is at the core of hundreds of businesses across the state and is responsible for the livelihoods of thousands of New York families. As we head into the final stretch of budget negotiations, this map will help lawmakers understand that supporting a new Belmont is supporting their constituents–no matter what district they represent.”

According to an independent economic analysis previously released by We Are NY Horse Racing, the project to modernize Belmont Park would generate $1 billion in one-time construction-related economic impact and create 3,700 construction jobs. After the new Belmont Park is built, it will produce $155 million in new annual recurring economic output, sustain 740 new full-time jobs, and generate $10 million in new state and local taxes per year.

“Horse racing supports businesses large and small across the Empire State–from the nearly 100 trainers at Belmont that each employ dozens of New Yorkers, to those who transport horses, to the businesses that supply our sport,” said Joseph Appelbaum, President of the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association. “As this map shows, building a new Belmont Park will boost local economies and help create good jobs in every corner of the state.”

The Belmont modernization project was included in Governor Kathy Hochul's Executive Budget Proposal as well as both the Senate and Assembly's One House budget resolutions.

“It's clear that the sport of horse racing is an economic force in New York State as strong as any Thoroughbred horse that races on our tracks,” said Najja Thompson, Executive Director of the New York Thoroughbred Breeders. “This sport sustains thousands of jobs for hardworking New Yorkers and a new Belmont Park would help keep New York's horse racing ecosystem strong and protect good jobs across the state.”

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Kumagai's team created a dynamic model that focused on horses' forward versus lateral speed and examined the results of sustained momentum and velocity within races. The team also studied jockey performance and how that would impact a horse's running style in addition to biometric data, leading to the possibility of calculating a horse's welfare and injury probability.

“We're honored to be named the winners of the inaugural Big Data Derby competition,” Kumagai said. “Our team primarily works in financial analytics and hockey statistics, so working with horse racing data has been a unique challenge which allowed us to apply our skills to a relatively new and unexplored domain.”

The Big Data Derby was launched with the goal of analyzing the vast amounts of data available to racing organizations, and to understand how the results of those studies could impact traditional methods of racing and training. The competition was sponsored NYRA and the NYTHA in partnership with the Kentucky Thoroughbred Association, Equibase, The Jockey Club, Breeders' Cup and the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association (TOBA).

Other models in the competition shed light on injury prevention, jockey decision making metrics, race tactics, track bias and more. Kumagai, a Data Science intern at Zelus Analytics, was previously part of a team that won the 2022 Big Data Bowl offered by the National Football League. The competition was judged by data analyst Rob Bingel, Rhodes College Economics Professor, horseplayer and thoroughbred owner Marshall Gramm, and Craig Milkowski of TimeformUS.

An open notebook of user-created content and data can be viewed at: https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/big-data-derby-2022/code.

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