Jumping outwardly but overwhelming the field right from the bell, Shoot It True rocketed out of the shoot and onto the main with a four-length advantage under a hand ride. Putting up fractions of :21.89 and :45.16 with ease, the heavy 2-5 favorite was cruising as her rivals started coming under rides in an effort to catch the lone filly. Widening her advantage as they swung into the lane, Tyler Gaffalione was under no pressure as the pair came in 7 1/2 lengths best over Strummin (Flameaway), who muscled his way to running room and claimed the runner-up spot.

A $340,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling, Shoot It True is the second winner for her dam from three to make the races. To The Moon Alice, a placed half-sister to GII Mother Goose S. winner Unchained Melody (Smart Strike) and the dam of MSP J C's a Legend (Lea), has also produced a yearling colt by Street Sense. She was bred to Speightstown for 2024.

There's no stopping (12) Shoot It True and @tyler_gaff in race 2! (3) Strummin and (2) Chado follow. pic.twitter.com/cFF5ZH3OHc

— Keeneland Racing (@keenelandracing) April 5, 2024

2nd-Keeneland, $64,361, Msw, 4-5, 2yo, 4 1/2f, :52.04, ft, 7 1/2 lengths.
SHOOT IT TRUE, f, 2, by Munnings
   1st Dam: To the Moon Alice, by Malibu Moon
   2nd Dam: Love Match, by Partner's Hero
   3rd Dam: For Love Alone, by L'Enjoleur
Sales history: $340,000 Ylg '23 SARAUG. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $31,806. O-Ice Wine Stable and Smart Choice Stable; B-Old Tavern Farm LLC (NY); T-Wesley A. Ward. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.

The post Munnings’s Shoot It True Strong on Keeneland ‘Rising Star’ Debut appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Wednesday's opening breeze-ups were topped by a trio of horses that stopped clock in :9 4/5 for an eighth of a mile, a time that was matched by no fewer than 15 juveniles on Thursday. Those numbers were lowered Friday by a pair of horses, a Wavertree Stables Inc.-consigned filly (hip 448) from the first crop of Vekoma (Candy Ride {Arg}) and a colt (hip 529) by fellow freshman sire Tiz the Law (Constitution) consigned by Hartley/DeRenzo Thoroughbreds. Each covered an eighth of a mile in :9 3/5.

Laying Down the 'Law'

Randy Hartley went to $375,000 for the Tiz the Law colt from the Woods Edge Farm draft at Keeneland September, but only after a not-so-subtle push from his client Rich Mendez.

“At $350,000, honestly, I was done, but Rich goes, 'one more time,' because Tiz the Law was like his favorite horse,” Hartley explained. “So I did and we got him. $350,000 was kind of our number, but we loved him so much we stretched a little more because we were trying to find the best one there.”

The approach to the September sale was fairly straight-forward.

“We went to that sale to try to find the best Tiz the Law at the sale and we found him in Book 1,” Hartley said. “Peter O'Callaghan had him and he might have had other horses sell for more in Book 1, but I thought this colt was the best physical he had in that book. We stretched on him because we thought that Tiz the Law was such a great racehorse, we love Constitution too, but they're harder to buy. But we felt like we if had one of the best Tiz the Laws in  the 2-year-old market that the people that respected Tiz the Law would be trying to buy something that they like.”

Just a May 9 foal, the colt is a son of the Grade III-placed Our Majesty (Majesticpefection), herself a half-sister to a pair of black-type winners. Sun Bloodstock purchased Our Majesty for $375,000 in foal to Tapit at Keeneland November in 2019 and sold the Tiz the Law colt to Vanny Investments for $140,000 at Keeneland January in 2023.

Hartley was duly please with what he saw on the track Friday.

“He's quick and he kept going, some people had him in :19 and change galloping out,” he said. “He's a May baby. I don't push mine hard, he's even still a little chunky. I try to get my horses here sound and I feel like if I train them good, they'll give me everything they've got. Once they show me that they can take off and go, from there it's about fitness. We're super proud of him. He's only 22 months old, but he looks like a 3-year-old.”

The noted reseller believes there is a good buzz about the first crop of the 2020 GI Belmont S. hero.

“We only had this one and he's been our man the whole time. I would definitely buy some more,” he said. “When I see Tiz the Laws bringing $200,000 in January, that tells me that people are liking the way they're training. People are not going to buy them if they're not hearing that buzz. We thought a lot of this colt all season.”

Kight High On Justify Colt

If the Tiz the Law colt didn't exactly represent a 'bargain' price, Hoby Kight felt like the $100,000 that he gave at Keeneland September for a Justify colt from the consignment of Joe Pickerell's Pick View LLC certainly was. The Jan. 23 foal (hip 539) was bred in New York by Chester and Mary Broman.

“He was big and beautiful and he's got some pedigree,” Kight explained. “And Dr. Broman raises a really good horse, [Sequel Bloodstock's] Becky [Thomas] does a phenomenal job. He had a cut on his back leg on his pastern and his leg was still swollen from the cut. A lot of short-listers, they cut that horse and never get to see him and that's the sort of stuff I prey on. It's stuff that won't bother them and gets better, it was an old scar and was still kind of fresh. But everything else was there–beautiful horse, all the right angles. And Justify really heated up too, so everything went my way.”

Bred in New York by Chester and Mary Broman, the bay is a son of two-time stakes winner and Grade III-placed Pauseforthecause (Giant's Causeway)

Hip 539 was one of two to breeze a quarter in :20.2 Friday.

“I thought he worked lights out,” Kight said of the colt, who already stands 16.2 in his estimation. “Joe has done a remarkable job with him. Joe thought he was going to be sub-:21 the way he'd been training, so he was pretty optimistic.”

Hip 539 | Photos By Z

McCrocklin At Both Ends of the Speed Spectrum

Tom McCrocklin consigns the afternoon's other :20.2 breezer, a filly by Munnings–Miss Majestic (Majestic Warrior) (hip 453), which he is offering on behalf of Florida breeder Peter Mirabelli.

“She's a beautiful filly, a great mover and she just does everything so smoothly,” he said. “I generally work my horses a quarter-mile just because I think makes for a more composed breed. I am not trying to disparage anyone else, but I find sometimes that the furlong breezes can end up being pretty frenetic. When people see me breeze one that isn't a quarter mile, they tend to raise an eyebrow.”

McCrocklin is also consigning a handful of the 40 2-year-olds in training that are being sold as part of the dispersal from the late Bob Lothenbach, who are just galloping through the stretch.

“I don't think it will be looked upon with skepticism or negatively,” McCrocklin said of the strategy to not ask the horses for any serious effort. “Mr, Lothenbach built and ran a high-class stable. The estate requested that none of the horses breeze, so we are just honoring their wishes, but I don't think it will negatively impact the horses or the way they sell.”

The final under-tack preview is set for Saturday morning beginning at 8 a.m. The March Sale begins Tuesday, Mar. 12 and runs for three days, with bidding beginning each day at 11 a.m. ET. For more, visit www.obssales.com.

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Consigned by Niall Brennan Stables, the daughter of Munnings (hip 26) was the first to set the bullet mark some 15 minutes into the under-tack show. The bay is out of the unraced Ansaam (Bernardini), a half-sister to Grade I winner Denman's Call (Northern Afleet) and from the family of multiple Grade I winner Evening Jewel. She was a $95,000 purchase at last year's Keeneland September sale.

The very next horse to work Wednesday, hip 17, a colt by McKinzie consigned by Raul Reyes's Kings Equine, also worked in :9 4/5.

“He did it the way I expected him to,” Reyes said of the work. “He was superior up at the farm. He showed a lot of talent there and he stepped up to the plate today. He is just a big, strong-looking horse. He looks like the real thing.”

The dark bay is out of multiple stakes winner Altamura (Artie Schiller). He was purchased by Scott and Evan Dilworth for $135,000 as a weanling at the 2022 Keeneland November sale before RNA'ing for $125,000 back at Keeneland last September.

“Scott bought him as a weanling and he didn't sell him as a yearling,” Reyes said. “They got lucky they didn't sell him because he really showed up today.”

Asked how the colt had changed over the winter, Reyes said,  “He just got more tucked up and muscled. I thought he was a good-looking horse when I got him, quite honestly.”

An hour into Wednesday's session, hip 89, another son of Gainesway's McKinzie, worked the furlong in :9 4/5. Out of Breech Inlet (Holy Bull), the colt is a half-brother to multiple stakes winner and multiple graded placed Merveilleux (Paynter). Breech Inlet is a half-sister to graded winner Bauble Queen (Arch), dam of multiple graded winner Blitzkrieg.

The Ontario-bred was purchased by Ron Fein's Superfine Farm for $205,000 at last year's Keeneland September sale. He is consigned by Wavertree Stables.

A four-time Grade I winner on the racetrack, McKinzie stands at Gainesway for $30,000.

Reyes said he is a fan of the stallion based on the progeny he has seen so far.

“I love them,” Reyes said. “They have a lot of talent. And they have a good mind. The two that I have experience with so far also have very nice bodies.”

A filly by Bee Jersey (hip 130) turned in Wednesday's fastest quarter-mile when zipping the distance in :20 4/5 for consignor Tom McCrocklin. The juvenile is out of Christmas Cove (More Than Ready), a half-sister to graded winner Coal Play (Mineshaft), as well as to the dam of GI Travers S. winner Keen Ice.

McCrocklin purchased the filly on behalf of Michael Sucher's Champion Equine for $110,000 at the Fasig-Tipton New York-bred Yearlings Sale in Saratoga last August.

The dispersal of the Lothenbach Stables of the late Bob Lothenbach, which produced a pair of million-dollar mares at the Fasig-Tipton Winter Mixed Sale in February, will continue at the OBS March sale. Fourteen juveniles from the dispersal galloped during the under-tack show Wednesday from the consignments of Brennan and McCrocklin, as well as deMeric Sales and Ocala Stud. An additional 26 juveniles from the dispersal will be on the track during the remaining three sessions of the under-tack show.

The under-tack show began at 8 a.m. Wednesday with temperatures in the upper 60's and, with an increasing headwind as the day wore on, concluded just after 3 p.m. with temperatures near 80 degrees.

“The track was great,” Reyes said. “The only thing was the headwind was brutal. It changed later in the day, we experienced a very strong headwind, I would say.”

The under-tack show continues through Saturday with sessions beginning daily at 8 a.m. The March sale will be held next Tuesday through Thursday with bidding beginning each day at 11 a.m.

The post Pair of McKinzie Colts, Munnings Filly Share OBS Bullet Wednesday appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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It feels presumptuous enough to offer counsel even on cheaper sires, when each mating should boil down to you finding an optimal fit for an individual mare that you know inside out. Still greater hesitation, then, must precede any attempt to discover “value” among this lot.

No stallion has any business standing at this kind of money unless demonstrably of elite caliber. So while we'll be nervously proposing a Podium, as usual, we won't be dwelling unduly on the rest. You can take it as read that most of these horses must be punching their weight, both on the track and at the sales.

Instead, I'd just like to make one or two more general observations, in concluding this series, on the current trading environment.

Here's a series of what feel like pretty uncontentious statements.

1) Fees, overall, feel rather too high now that a long bull   run has tapered off and the middle market is being stretched by polarization.

2) At the same time, books assembled by unproven sires are reaching a size that must contain seeds of peril for the future of the breed. We know that most won't make the grade, meaning that the gene pool is increasingly being flooded with… well, choose your own pejorative.

3) But stallion farms have little room for maneuver, on either front. Knowing how the commercial market will behave nowadays, their accountants have only two options to retrieve the massive investment required to recruit an attractive stallion. The first is to start fees as high as they can, on the basis that it's now closer to “one and out” than “three and out”. The other is to keep fees more accessible, and instead go all out for volume. That necessarily exposes breeders to bringing an unexceptional specimen to saturated catalogues, but they all book their mares with their eyes open and many are evidently prepared to gamble on a home run. Pricing a horse fairly without resorting to appalling volume is an extremely difficult balancing act, and in this series I have tried to identify farms that look after their clients best in those terms.

Gun Runner | Sarah Andrew

4) Commercial breeders operate in a very difficult environment and need to put bread on the table. If you've had a weanling break a leg playing in a paddock, or lost a mare foaling, then you're going not going to be factoring too many noble thoughts about the long-term health of the breed into your choice of stallion. Same applies to all the pinhookers. The real blame, therefore, rests with those directing ringside spending.

5) These, in turn, have only one cogent explanation for their behavior. And no, it's not because rolling the dice on new stallions is their only window for hitting an elite stallion because all the proven ones are too expensive. Okay, horses like Gun Runner and Curlin have turned out to be at their most accessible when starting out, even though priced at or near the top of their intake. But the reality is that the vast majority of rookies will never match the ratios consistently achieved by some of the highly affordable, prove-a-mare stalwarts noted in this series. So the remaining logic is a self-fulfilling one: buyers like new sires because these will typically turn out to have received their biggest and best books, precisely because that's where all the attention is expected to be.

6) But hang on a minute. What happens when these books become so big that the mare quality becomes swamped by quantity? If you truly believe that you have spotted a stallion with unusual potential, why not stick with him as his second, third and fourth books dwindle? He may no longer be getting top mares, but good luck picking out the gold from the glister when the rookies are routinely corralling way over 200. You'd still be getting that priceless “sire power,” but at a diminishing cost. Where were all these guys when Into Mischief, Tapit and War Front had no friends in their third and fourth years? That's a real service for your clients, hanging in there for the value when everyone else runs away screaming. Low tide is exactly when you should be getting aboard. As a young stallion gets closer to putting horses into the gate, surely you're just getting closer to being proved right?

7) That leaves us with little alternative but to assume that professional counsellors spend their clients' money on new sires first and foremost because they don't really have to put their neck on the line. They're participating in a communal game of fantasy breeding, and when they do hit a dud–and we all know what a dud looks like, even if hundreds of foals means that he can still be promoted for “yet another stakes winner”–they can shrug their shoulders and say, “Don't blame me, everybody loved that horse!” And conversely they can gloat when they happen to land on a seam of gold. Well, even I can do that occasionally, and in the earlier stages of this series I've been perfectly happy to suggest a roll of the dice on one or two young horses that seem to be underpriced for their potential. But for every Not This Time I might find, over the years there's no doubt that I'm going to like as many duds as the next guy.

Life Is Good | Sarah Andrew

So, in conclusion: the bottom line is that stallion fees are only too high if you lack the courage of your convictions. Certainly, there can't have been many better epochs for the breed-to-race programs. But as I never tire of saying, there should be nothing more commercial than putting a winner under your mare.

Whether you want to bring down fees, or book sizes, the solution is the same. You just need to broaden the type of stallions that you support.

That way, everyone's a winner. Using horses that have at least demonstrated some competence to replicate the prowess that earned them a place at stud would a) allow relief on fees, b) even out book sizes, c) improve your chances of producing a racehorse, and d) duly improve the resilience of the racing population, with all the incidental benefits to a sport under growing social pressure.

The only comfort about our present situation is a cold one, in that things are even worse in Europe. The saving grace of the American industry is that it's still a commercial aspiration– whatever 293 mares to Golden Pal might tell you–to have a horse hold out through two turns of dirt on the first Saturday in May. And that, of course, is a competence that unites the majority of the elite sires with whom we close our series today.

This price range admits only one absolute beginner, Cody's Wish, whose intake received a separate assessment at the start of the series. And overall, logically enough, there are far fewer untested sires standing at this kind of fee than lower down the pyramid: only FLIGHTLINE ($150,000), LIFE IS GOOD ($85,000) and ESSENTIAL QUALITY ($65,000) are maintaining a place at this level pending examination on the racetrack. Nobody needs reminding of the excellence of their first careers, and the first two only have their first weanlings due. But it's perhaps instructive of the type of program keenest to tap into Essential Quality's wholesome combination of class and constitution (champion at two and three) with family (now further decorated by Forte, who shares a third dam) that only five weanlings were traded out from his debut crop (eight offered; median $280,000).

At the other end of the scale, we have a few sires whose right to stand at dizzy fees is too familiar to required reiteration. We have just celebrated a fifth consecutive title for INTO MISCHIEF ($250,000), who has duly opened new horizons with the mid-career upgrade in his mares. Competing with the Into Mischief production line may well leave CURLIN ($250,000) as one of the best sires never to have his status formally gilded by a championship. And TAPIT ($185,000) is still the main man, when it comes to lifetime ratios. He had a quietish year by his metronomic standards, and his books will be being prudently managed these days, but I still hope to see him come up with that Derby winner to round off a resume that features stakes winners at one-in-10 named foals, 101 of them at graded level at 6.2 percent.

Justify | Sarah Andrew

Nor is there any need to dwell on the young guns JUSTIFY (private), whose success either side of the water–six elite scorers in 2023, notably an outstanding champion juvenile in Europe–suggests that he may be eligible for a historic role in our urgent quest for sires to reconcile the disastrous segregation of European and American gene pools; and GUN RUNNER ($250,000), whose early percentages remain simply freakish. In 2023 his black-type, graded-stakes and Grade I performers respectively came in at 17.2, 11.8 and 5.4 percent of starters!

A lot of the best sires are now in the evening of their careers, and these two appear to have a huge opportunity to dominate in the years ahead, along with NOT THIS TIME ($150,000) who will now only just be consolidating his breakout.

It would perhaps be taking loyalty too far to give Not This Time his umpteenth Value Podium at 10 times the fee that first excited us, but rest assured there's an awful lot still to come from a stallion who complements the priceless transatlantic legacy of Giant's Causeway with indigenous Tartan Farms dirt speed. Remember that his juveniles this year will be his first sired even at $40,000, up from just $12,500. They reached a median of $210,000 (average $287,025) as yearlings, nice work at the conception fee (and up from $150,000/$209,688). Even after adding Up to the Mark as a fifth Grade I winner in three crops, Not This Time may do well to keep up his incredible start as the crop conceived at his lowest ebb turns three. But the upgrade in quality will soon kick in, and then all bets will be off.

In contrast UNCLE MO ($150,000) first stood at this fee back in 2017 and QUALITY ROAD ($200,000) reached the same mark by 2019. By this stage, then, they have pretty well established who and what they are, and duly finished fourth and fifth respectively in the general list. Quality Road has become a particularly consistent sales performer, advancing his median in 2023 to $375,000 from $350,000, behind only Into Mischief and Curlin. It was Uncle Mo (median $212,500) who fired his racetrack arrows closer to the bull's-eye in 2023, 14 stakes winners (at 4.4 percent of starters) including three at Grade I level, whereas Quality Road's 18 (7.2 percent) featured just National Treasure at that altitude.

Good Magic | Sarah Andrew

If that pair are plainly in their prime, GOOD MAGIC ($125,000) has broken into the six-figure club after producing the Derby winner at the first attempt. That's quite a hike from $50,000 but he's no one-trick pony, counting Eclipse finalist Muth among half a dozen black-type winners already from 45 juvenile starters in 2023. Obviously, he's going to have to keep advancing his ringside performance to warrant this fee, having achieved a median of $155,000 (average $217,390) with his latest crop. But that was up from $100,000 ($130,250) in 2022, and must itself be acknowledged a fine yield from a $30,000 conception fee.

From the same glitzy intake, BOLT D'ORO rises to $60,000 from $35,000 after a second productive campaign. Though his yearling dividends slipped, at a median $82,500/average $113,218, they similarly represented a punchy yield on a $15,000 conception fee. Bolt d'Oro has started a higher proportion of his foals than Justify and Good Magic, so we'll have to see whether that's a function of superior precocity or overall soundness. As noted earlier in the series, however, what really excites about this class is its depth: horses like Army Mule and Girvin are essentially matching their more expensive peers from much lower fees and volume. Those horses deserve a chance to show what do with their own upgrades before anyone reaches any definitive conclusions about the pecking order.

At the other end of the spectrum are some much older sires with a sustained record of achievement behind them. WAR FRONT has had his books managed with restraint for so long that he will never have adequate volume to shake up the general list, unless he has a real star, but even without one last year he maintained his customary strike-rates, for instance with 10 graded stakes winners from just 166 starters. His career ratios are beyond even Tapit, which makes $100,000 a terrific play for those who a) can afford it and b) aren't prey to a childish aversion to turf.

The MUNNINGS trajectory got so giddy last year that he was hoisted to six figures but that proved to be a moment of overexcitement and, after his book shrank to 146 from 204, he has dropped to $75,000 for 2024. His reputation has raced ahead of his fee for most of his career and he's actually on the point of upgrading his stock on the track, his incoming juveniles being the first conceived even at $40,000 and duly nudging his yearling median forward ($160,000 from $150,000). He has that big 2022 book of $85,000 covers in the pipeline, and the access he has enjoyed to better mares should also help him improve a somewhat pedestrian ratio for his five elite scorers to date. Munnings is nowadays virtually a lock for the top 10 in the general list and that makes him look pretty fairly priced.

Practical Joke | Coolmore

His studmate PRACTICAL JOKE is becoming one of the busiest avenues to his sire, albeit his affordability is diminishing (fee up to $65,000 from $25,000). Commercial breeders can't get enough of him, his latest yearlings achieving a terrific yield (median $110,000/average $153,807) on the cover fee. The obvious caveat is that his volume is now such (482 mares over the last two years!) that you had better not find yourself with an ordinary specimen…

CANDY RIDE (Arg) was one of those middle-rank sires most exposed to polarization at the sales (median down to $100,000, which was half his average, from $140,000 the previous year) but remains settled at $75,000 after Candied and Geaux Rocket Ride kept his name in lights. His son TWIRLING CANDY (average $160,064 also well ahead of his $90,000 median; clearly their good ones are very good) similarly stands at $60,000 for a third year after producing his eighth Grade I winner, albeit his respectable lifetime ratios don't quite match those of STREET SENSE at the same fee.

Street Sense arguably offers fine value at this level, even if his bargain buddy Hard Spun would make as much sense at a lower fee: some of their indices are uncannily in step. But at the sales Street Sense is maintaining a $150,000 average, well over double that of Hard Spun. That confirms the latter to be an end user's delight, but Street Sense covers all bases.

Their venerable neighbor MEDAGLIA D'ORO reached a peak of $250,000 in 2018 but was slashed from $150,000 to $100,000 in 2022 and now suffers a fresh indignity at $75,000. The fact is that his Hong Kong 'ATM' Golden Sixty belongs to the same crop as his last big star here, Bolt d'Oro, leaving the tide of fashion to ebb somewhat: his latest yearlings had to settle for a $180,000 median/$248,371 average (down from $242,500/$339,918). Nonetheless this is the same flesh and blood whose 22 Grade I winners in the Northern Hemisphere (26 overall) long gave him top billing at Saratoga and Book I. Thoroughbreds will always confound assumptions and it would be gratifying to see such a glamorous specimen muster one or two last hurrahs in the evening of his career.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze Medal: GHOSTZAPPER
Awesome Again–Baby Zip (Relaunch)
$75,000, Hill 'n' Dale

I guess it all depends what you're trying to achieve. But if you're one of those strange people simply trying to breed as good a racehorse as you can, then you certainly won't mind that this magnificent animal has now entered his 24th year.

Ghostzapper | Sarah Andrew

He was not very temperately handled early in his stud career, launched at $200,000 and slashed from $125,000 to $30,000 after his first juveniles blew out. Though a colt from his debut crop won the GI Blue Grass S., he was promptly cut again to $20,000. It was a long road back, but he's now just two short of bringing up 100 stakes winners at 7.8 percent of named foals.

Across the board, in fact, he's basically the same sire as Uncle Mo, who gets his black-type winners at 7.1 percent. Their stakes performers come at 13.1 and 13 percent respectively; Ghostzapper's graded stakes winners at 4.2 percent, against 3.5 percent for Uncle Mo; graded stakes performers weigh in at 7.2 and 7.7 percent; and 14 Grade I winners apiece come at 1.1 and 1.0 percent. But Uncle Mo stands at twice the fee, and has accumulated more named foals from six fewer crops!

Obviously Ghostzapper pays a commercial price for being less likely to produce precocious horses, but the likes of Mystic Guide and Goodnight Olive continue to reward those prepared to await the kind of maturity that enabled their sire to stretch his murderous speed, aged four, to one of the great modern performances. And anyone who saw the GIII Saratoga Special last summer will form their own views about Ghostzapper never getting precocious stock!

In the meantime, he has emerged, consistently with the sire-line, as an important broodmare sire, his daughters having now given us Up To The Mark as well as Justify himself. I don't know whether Ghostzapper was confined to 75 mares last year in deference to his age, or just because of commercial wariness. As your ideal Book II sire, he was vulnerable to market polarization this year. In the circumstances he did well to maintain a $170,590 average ($187,916 in 2022), albeit his median duly suffered ($115,000 down from $165,500).

But that's a sideshow at this time of his life. You know what he can do for your program, especially if you wouldn't mind retaining a filly. And you also know that there's a finite opportunity to tap so proximately into a combination as resonant as grandsire Deputy Minister and damsire Relaunch. It's a privilege worth paying for and, relative to plenty of untested young sires, it's one that doesn't cost so much.

Silver Medal: NYQUIST
Uncle Mo–Seeking Gabrielle (Forestry)
$85,000, Darley

Here's a horse back on the move, with his incoming juveniles sired at $75,000–up from $40,000, a response to the freshman title he won in 2020. He then had to be throttled back to $55,000 after hitting a flat spot the following year, mustering a solitary graded stakes winner, but that is now turning out to have been a blip.

Nyquist | Sarah Andrew

This year he came up with his third and fourth Grade I winners, and was denied a fifth in poignant circumstances, as sire of New York Thunder. Into their slipstream followed a bunch of juveniles that showed both the precocity to win at Royal Ascot (Crimson Advocate) and the flair to put themselves on the dirt Classic radar (Nysos, Knighstbridge). Nysos looks a pretty freakish talent and we know that his sire stretched his own juvenile speed when and where it counted, on the first Saturday in May.

Nyquist's $140,000 yearling median in 2023 needs to keep progressing, to justify his new fee, but hopefully that process is well underway (median was $110,000 in 2022, and average meanwhile markedly up at $192,749 from $148,275). He remained fully subscribed during his couple of years regrouping at $55,000, so there's unlikely to be any kind of bump in the road now.

The one he endured in his second year has certainly levelled off, so that even though he emerged in the same intake as Not This Time, he's faring pretty respectably even against that monster talent. Nyquist can't match his ratios for winners in each category, but in black-type, graded stakes and Grade I performers there's not much between them: 12.7, 6.7 and 1.8 percent of named foals for Not This Time and 12.1, 6.5 and 2.3 percent for Nyquist. True, Not This Time must have had lesser materials with which to make his name, but he's now at a fee altitude that requires oxygen masks, whereas Nyquist is still hauling his way up the rope behind him.

Gold Medal: CONSTITUTION
Tapit–Baffled (Distorted Humor)
$110,000, WinStar

This horse is at an interesting crossroads. His incoming juveniles were conceived at $85,000, the sophomores at $40,000, and his 4-year-olds at just $15,000. From 48 starters last year, even this latter group came close to a Grade I score through Webslinger, beaten a head in the Saratoga Derby and a neck in the Hollywood Derby.

Constitution | Sarah Andrew

The 2024 sophomores emerge from a bumper crop of 187 live foals, the first Constitution produced after his freshman breakout in 2019 (second to American Pharoah). They made a very promising start on the track, placing him second in the table for 2-year-old earnings. In fairness, he had a pretty enormous footprint, with 88 juvenile starters, but Catching Freedom set the tone for his peers in 2024 with his Smarty Jones S. success on New Year's Day. In fact, he's one of three Constitutions in the top nine of colleague T.D. Thornton's opening Derby Top 12.

And now, as noted, we can look forward to the $85,000 crop corralled by Tiz the Law's sophomore emergence. They averaged $281,125 as yearlings, up from $244,242, with the median steady at $200,000. The good old pipeline is loaded, then, and we know that those that stand out from a crowd will bring the big money.

His aging sire has arranged quite a race for the eventual succession, but for now this appears to be the heir to catch for the likes of Flightline and Essential Quality. Constitution has seen a lot of life for a horse of his age, including having shuttled to Chile for three years, but there's definitely a scenario where a fee held at $110,000 turns out to be a staging post on the way to still higher ones.

Breeder Selections

Paul Manganaro, Belladonna Racing

Paul Manganaro | Christina Bossinakis

Bronze Medal: Twirling Candy ($60,000)
Twirling Candy offers breeders a lot of bang for their buck. He has ranked in the top 15 on the national sires by progeny earnings list the last two seasons and has produced eight Grade I winners to-date.

Silver Medal: Quality Road ($200,000)
Quality Road has consistently produced the “Big Saturday Afternoon” horse. He can get you a quality two-year-old and one that can compete at the highest level around two turns. His 2.14 (AEI) average earning index is on or near par with the elite stallions currently standing in America. His offspring are also very popular in the sales ring.

Gold Medal: Constitution ($110,000)
To have access to Constitution at his stud fee is like stealing in my opinion. He's a stallion that had 17 yearlings sell for $400,000 or higher in 2023 topped by a $1.3-million Keeneland September yearling. The offspring from his best book of mares are just starting to hit the ground in the past few years and as Jan. 11 he has three colts ranked in the TDN's Top 12 2024 Derby list.

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Consigned by St George Sales, the Ontario-bred foal–bred by Narola and Anderson Farm–is out of Grade III winner Summer in Saratoga (Hard Spun). Out of MSW Diversa (Tabasco Cat), the 7-year-old mare, a $630,000 purchased by Anderson Farms at Fasig-Tipton at this venue in 2021, is a daughter of GI Vanity S. heroine Love Theway Youare (Arch).

“She was just a beautiful Munnings, I have never seen a Munnings like that, so we are happy with her,” said Shadwell's Jonny Smyth. “I spoke Sheikha Hissa [Al Maktoum] and made some budget decisions, so we were happy to get her.”

Back in action later in the session, Smyth–bidding from inside the pavilion–extended to $400,000 for Hip 109, a filly by Gun Runner. Consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency, the dark bay is a daughter of Classofsixtythree (Include). The 10-year-old mare is also responsible for GSW and GISP Gunmetal Gray (Exchange Rate) and Grade III-scorer Sixtythreecaliber (Gun Runner).

“She is a nice, leggy filly,” he said. “She was a beautiful mover as well.”

Offered at Keeneland January in 2019, Classofsixtythree had failed to meet her reserve at $385,000 while carrying Sixtythreecaliber.

Of Shadwell's purchases Tuesday, Smyth added, “Both are from beautiful families, so they have some nice residual value.”

Commenting on the overall quality of the weanlings on offer at Fasig-Tipton Tuesday, he said, “It's a nice group. Fasig has put together a nice group of weanlings. We've had a few on our list and we were very happy to get them.”

Active both in the sales arena and the racetrack both domestically and abroad this season, Smyth indicated there was also plenty to look forward to on the farm as well.

“It's been an exciting year. We have [Six-time Grade I winner] Malathaat [Curlin] on the farm and she is in foal to Into Mischief,” he said of the two-time champion. “We're looking forward to what she will produce. And it's also been a phenomenal year in Europe, so we're very happy with the entire program overall.”

Later in the session, a colt by Maxfield (Hip 213) and Hip 268-a colt by Into Mischief-also reached that mark. Both top weanling colts were consigned by Taylor Made Sales. The former was purchased by Cherry Knoll Farm and the latter was secured by Enfuego Stables.

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(11) Agoo finishes strong in race 8 over (5) Mystik Dan. (9) Linebacker finishes third. pic.twitter.com/XzRamuJD9b

— Keeneland Racing (@keenelandracing) October 22, 2023

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Justify's 2024 fee is the fourth-highest of the stallions announced so far for 2024, placing him behind perennial leading sires Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) and Curlin (Smart Strike), and third-crop standout Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}).

Veteran sire Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) remains at $150,000 while 17-year-old Munnings (Speightstown) sits at $75,000.

Following the top three are American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) $50,000; Practical Joke (Into Mischief) $45,000; Epicenter (Not This Time), $40,000; Jack Christopher (Munnings) $40,000; Corniche (Quality Road) $25,000; Golden Pal (Uncle Mo) $25,000; Tiz The Law (Constitution) $20,000; Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) $15,000; Maximum Security (New Year's Day) $7,500; Echo Town (Speightstown) $5,000; and Mo Town (Uncle Mo) $5,000.

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The 3-5 favorite set a pressured pace, albeit through very manageable early fractions of :23.69 and :47.10 going a one-turn mile beneath the Twin Spires. He let it out a notch as they straightened for home and held Justify (Scat Daddy)'s half-brother and 'Rising Star' Stage Raider (Pioneerof the Nile) safe by a length. Three Technique (Mr Speaker) completed the 'Rising Star' trifecta.

Zozos, a strong second at just third asking in the 2022 GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, reeled off three straight wins earlier this term, including the Knicks Go S. over this same track and trip May 6 and the Hanshin S. at Ellis Park July 2. He was a disappointing fourth as the heavy favorite going 1 1/16 miles around two turns in Monmouth's GIII Philip H. Iselin S. last time Aug. 19.

“I didn't think he would get away with that easy of an early lead,” winning trainer Brad Cox said. “I thought Florent (Geroux) did a good job to not let Caddo River (Hard Spun) get too close on his outside. He's run well this year and trained well out of his last race at Monmouth.”

Cox continued, “I think he's now a really good one-turn horse. We'll see who's going where in the Breeders' Cup and make a decision on his next start soon. I don't know what we'd do if we don't go to the Breeders' Cup, but we'll let this horse tell us what's next. It's a lot to ask of any horse to make the trip from Kentucky to California against some of the best horses in the world.”

Pedigree Notes:

Zozos becomes the 27th graded stakes winner for Munnings. Forestry is now the broodmare sire of 27 graded winners as well. The Butzows acquired the dam of Zozos for $57,000 at the 2011 Keeneland September and raced her to nine victories and eight minor placings from 32 starts for earnings north of $233,000. Papa's Forest had a colt by Candy Ride (Arg) in 2023 and was bred back to Jackie's Warrior.

Saturday, Churchill Downs
ACK ACK S.-GIII, $400,000, Churchill Downs, 9-30, 3yo/up, 1m, 1:35.32, ft.
1–ZOZOS, 121, c, 4, by Munnings
              1st Dam: Papa's Forest, by Forestry
              2nd Dam: Dixie Sue, by Dixieland Band
              3rd Dam: Barbara Sue, by Big Spruce
1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. O/B-Barry Butzow & Joni Butzow (KY); T-Brad H. Cox; J-Florent Geroux. $242,280. Lifetime Record: 11-7-1-0, $882,688. Werk Nick Rating: A. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Stage Raider, 121, h, 5, Pioneerof the Nile–Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper. 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($950,000 RNA Ylg '19 KEESEP). O-John D. Gunther; B-John D. Gunther (KY); T-Cherie DeVaux. $78,800.
3–Three Technique, 121, h, 6, Mr Speaker–Nite in Rome, by Harlan's Holiday. ($50,000 Wlg '17 KEENOV; $180,000 Ylg '18 FTKJUL; $47,000 RNA 4yo '21 KEENOV). O-Miller, David E., Grindley, Eric and Werner, John; B-Omega Farm LLC & Bally Breeders (KY); T-Jason G. Cook. $39,400.
Margins: 1, 1, 5 1/4. Odds: 0.77, 6.70, 4.25.
Also Ran: O Besos, Caddo River, Seize the Night, Skyro.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuelTV.

#5 ZOZOS wins the (G3) Ack Ack Stakes under @flothejock at @ChurchillDowns and earns his spot in the @BreedersCup Dirt Mile. This son of Munnings is trained by @bradcoxracing and owned and bred by Barry and Joni Butzow. #WAYI pic.twitter.com/r5nZeIAaVZ

— TVG (@TVG) September 30, 2023

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Kirstenbosch (Midnight Lute), a 4-year-old making her 17th lifetime start for trainer John Sadler, has not raced out of graded-stakes company since her third-place finish in the GI La Brea S. Dec. 26. Perhaps more impressively, she's been on the board in all but three of the eight starts since that post-Christmas trifecta. And though absent of the winner's circle since victory in the GIII La Canada S. Jan. 15, Kirstenbosch has run second or third to GISW Adare Manor (Uncle Mo) and a pair of Friday's rivals in GSW/GISP Elm Drive (Mohaymen) and GISW Eda (Munnings).

Facing an opportunity to turn the tables on those rivals, Friday's 6-1 shot spotted the field a step at the break and trailed with only Lady T (Into Mischief) to keep her company as the remaining five runners all vied for command into the opening furlong. Several lengths out of it still as the speed began to sort itself out into the turn, Kirstenbosch had Clearly Unhinged (Into Mischief), Home Cooking (Honor Code) and Elm Drive to catch as heavily-favored Eda was already under a ride from fourth. Switched inside around the bend and back out again at the top of the lane, she had a clear path to victory and surged past Clearly Unhinged inside the final sixteenth to score the upset.

“What I've been talking about with Keith (Abrahams) is it is not the distance for her, it is the setup, and she finally got the setup she wanted, which is faster,” said trainer John Sadler. “She always puts in a good late run, but if they go slow in front it's sometimes hard for her.”

When asked about a potential next run in the GI Breeders' Cup Filly & Sprint, Sadler didn't hesitate: “Yes, because it's seven eighths and you might get a strong pace,” he added.

Pedigree Note:

A Keith Abrahams homebred, Kirstenbosch is the third foal and third winner out of GIII Las Cienegas S. runner up Llandudno, also campaigned by Abrahams. She'd previously produced stakes winner and GII Monrovia S. runner up Constantia (Munnings) and reported a yearling full-brother to Friday's winner. Hill 'n' Dale stallion Midnight Lute, himself a champion sprinter, is perhaps best known for his prolific $5.5m Keeneland November sale-topping daughter and Champion older dirt mare Midnight Bisou.

Jockey @HIBerrios took advantage of those giant strides aboard #3 KIRSTENBOSCH ($15.00) and they win the (G3) Chillingworth Stakes at @SantaAnitaPark for trainer @johnwsadler and owner Keith Abrahams. Congratulations to the connections with this winner by Midnight Lute. pic.twitter.com/IA2Kb3DmD4

— TVG (@TVG) September 29, 2023

Friday, Santa Anita
CHILLINGWORTH S.-GIII, $101,000, Santa Anita, 9-29, 3yo/up, f/m, 6 1/2f, 1:15.37, ft.
1–KIRSTENBOSCH, 126, f, 4, by Midnight Lute
          1st Dam: Llandudno (GSP, $150,160), by Belong to Me
          2nd Dam: And Guess What, by Kris S.
          3rd Dam: T. V. Residual, by Pirate's Bounty
O/B-Keith Abrahams (KY); T-John W. Sadler; J-Hector Isaac Berrios. $60,000. Lifetime Record: GISP, 17-4-5-2, $521,480. *1/2 to Constantia (Munnings), SW & GSP, $209,192. Werk Nick Rating: F. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree or free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Clearly Unhinged, 118, f, 3, Into Mischief–Smart Win, by Smart Strike. O-Rock Brother Racing LLC; B-Rock Brothers Breeding LLC (KY); T-Michael W. McCarthy. $20,000.
3–Eda, 126, f, 4, Munnings–Show Me, by Lemon Drop Kid.
($240,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP; $550,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR). O-Baoma Corp; B-Nathan McCauley (KY); T-Bob Baffert. $12,000.
Margins: 1 3/4, 1HF, 4HF. Odds: 6.50, 4.20, 0.60.
Also Ran: Elm Drive, Violent Runner, Lady T, Home Cooking.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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