When the field broke in the Hirsch, it was the longest shot on the board, 17-1 MGSW Elm Drive (Mohaymen), who got the lead from the inside post despite an awkward step a few strides out of the gate. Adare Manor immediately advanced to keep her company from the outside, staying just off the leader's flank through a :23.31 first quarter. Positions remained unchanged through the :46.68 half. Moving well into the lane, Elm Drive fought on, but Adare Manor merely unfurled her long stride to draw on even terms and make it a race. Meanwhile Desert Dawn (Cupid), an Arizona-bred winner of last year's GII Santa Anita Oaks, abandoned her trailing spot and briefly looked a threat while wide, but Adare Manor was too strong and crossed the wire a length in front as Juan Hernandez merely waved the stick at her. Desert Dawn secured second while Elm Drive held for third.

“I was hoping to be on an easy lead,” said Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. “I knew [Elm Drive] is a really fast filly; you want to stay close to her. Sort of took our filly out of her game a little bit. [Hernandez] had to keep riding her the whole way but, at the end, she's a big, long-jumping filly and she just got going there at the end. We're happy with the win; we got a Grade I.”

Adare Manor was the first Hirsch winner for owner Michael Lund Petersen and the second for Baffert, who won this race in 2020 with Fighting Mad (New Year's Day). Baffert's other filly Saturday, GISW Fun to Dream (Arrogate), finished last.

Donato Lanni acquired Adare Manor on behalf of the team for $375,000 at the 2021 OBS June sale after she worked a furlong in :10.1. The Hirsch marked the 4-year-old's fourth consecutive win, including a last-out GII Santa Margarita S. score June 10 at Santa Anita over the reopposing Kirstenbosch (Midnight Lute) and Desert Dawn. The dark bay also captured the Apr. 29 GII Santa Maria S. and last year's GIII Las Virgenes S. Her stalking tactics in the Hirsch were a slight departure from the front-end style employed in all five of her previous wins.

Chased them down!

Adare Manor & @JJHernandezS19 take the Grade I @BreedersCup #WAYI Clement L. Hirsch. pic.twitter.com/OTdwQgjEx5

— Del Mar Racetrack (@DelMarRacing) August 6, 2023

Pedigree Notes:

Town & Country Horse Farms, LLC and Gary Broad bred Adare Manor in Kentucky out of Brooklynsway, the 2016 winner of the GIII Doubledogdare S. at Keeneland. Town & Country bought the mare in foal to Into Mischief for $95,000 at the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Winter Mixed sale. Brooklynsway lost that foal, but has a 2-year-old filly by the same sire, a yearling filly by Ghostzapper, and a Mar. 24-foaled full-brother to Adare Manor. She was bred back to Tapit.

Coolmore's Uncle Mo has 93 black-type winners bred in the Northern Hemisphere, including 48 graded winners. Adare Manor is the only stakes winner out of a daughter of Giant Gizmo, but his sire, the late Giant's Causeway, is an excellent broodmare sire and responsible for three of Uncle Mo's black-type winners.

Saturday, Del Mar
CLEMENT L. HIRSCH S.-GI, $400,000, Del Mar, 8-5, 3yo/up, f/m, 1 1/16m, 1:43.33, ft.
1–ADARE MANOR, 123, f, 4, by Uncle Mo
                1st Dam: Brooklynsway (GSW-USA, MSW & GSP-Can,
                                $724,597), by Giant Gizmo
                2nd Dam: Explosive Story, by Radio Star
                3rd Dam: Maya's Note, by Editor's Note
1ST GRADE I WIN. ($180,000 Ylg '20 FTKFEB; $190,000 RNA
Ylg '20 FTKSEL; $375,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN). O-Michael Lund
Petersen; B-Town & Country Horse Farms, LLC & Gary Broad
(KY); T-Bob Baffert; J-Juan J. Hernandez. $240,000. Lifetime
Record: 12-6-4-0, $861,600. Werk Nick Rating: A. Click for the
eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Desert Dawn, 121, f, 4, by Cupid
                1st Dam: Ashley's Glory, by Honour and Glory
                2nd Dam: Ashley Secret, by Dr. Carter
                3rd Dam: Whatever It Takes, by Hatchet Man
($32,000 RNA Ylg '20 OBSOCT). O/B-H & E Ranch (AZ); T-Philip
D'Amato. $80,000.
3–Elm Drive, 121, f, 4, by Mohaymen
                1st Dam: Lets Dance Charlie, by Indian Charlie
                2nd Dam: Dance Darling, by Devil's Bag
                3rd Dam: Danzig Darling, by Danzig
   1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. ($40,000 Ylg '20 OBSOCT; $165,000 2yo
'21 OBSMAR). O-Little Red Feather Racing; B-Kenneth D'Oyen
(KY); T-Philip D'Amato. $48,000.
Margins: 1, 1HF, 3 1/4. Odds: 0.60, 5.80, 17.70.
Also Ran: Kirstenbosch, Fun to Dream.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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The three-year-old filly led throughout in the 1 1/16-mile race to win by two lengths with a Beyer Speed Figure of 90.  It was her second consecutive stakes win following a victory in the Panthers S. in early June. She has now won four of eight career starts for $210,870. It is her third win this year.

“Crypto Mo is a very exciting addition to the catalogue,” said Fasig-Tipton President Boyd Browning. “She is a ready-to-go graded stakes winning three-year-old filly with a lot of racing opportunities ahead of her. She has a similar profile to Stiletto Boy (Shackleford), who came into this sale off a win in the Iowa Derby a couple years back and is now a Grade I winner of $1.8 million.”

Crypto Mo will be available for inspection beginning Monday morning at Barn 12.

The July Selected Horses of Racing Age Sale will take place Monday, July 10, beginning at 2 pm in Lexington, Kentucky.

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As brilliant as she was on unveiling June 26 at Los Alamitos, where she dominated a five furlong field of maidens by eight easy lengths, and then a head victorious in Del Mar's GII Sorrento S. Aug. 6 over eventual GISW Eda (Munnings), she was as uncharacteristically dull in her prior two starts. Eased to a distant seventh in the GI Del Mar Debutante Sept. 5 and last Oct. 10 in the 1 1/16m GII Chandelier S. at the Great Race Place, Elm Drive wasn't seen again until this return to one turn contests.

With the scratch of old foe Eda, overcoming a bumper car start to speed to the lead was a breeze; the 2-1 co-second choice had everything her own way as she cruised through a :23.59 opening quarter and a :46.66 half. The big white blaze emerged first into the lane, three on top and going well, and Elm Drive comfortably held off a late rally by Kirstenbosch (Midnight Lute).

“She broke sharp and just showed she was in command every step of the way and a had a little extra to kick away in the stretch,” said trainer Philip D'Amato, the current leader in trainer standings with 38 wins and one more than Bob Baffert for the lead in stakes victories, with 12. “I'm very happy with her comeback. Seven eighths is a tricky distance to win at off the bench and I'm glad we did it. I think she'll get a lot out of this race.”

Elm Drive is her dam's second black-type runner and fifth winner from five older offspring to survive. The mare has a yearling colt by Accelerate and a 2022 colt by Volatile. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

ANGELS FLIGHT S., $79,400, Santa Anita, 5-8, 3yo, f, 7f, 1:23.97, ft.
1–ELM DRIVE, 124, f, 3, by Mohaymen
                1st Dam: Lets Dance Charlie, by Indian Charlie
                2nd Dam: Dance Darling, by Devil's Bag
                3rd Dam: Danzig Darling, by Danzig
($40,000 Ylg '20 OBSOCT; $165,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR). O-Little Red Feather Racing; B-Kenneth D'Oyen (KY); T-Philip D'Amato; J-Ricardo Gonzalez. $47,640. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-0, $195,640. *1/2 to Mother of Dragons (First Dude), MSW, $153,995.
2–Kirstenbosch, 120, f, 3, Midnight Lute–Llandudno, by Belong to Me. 1ST BLACK TYPE. O/B-Keith Abrahams (KY); T-John W. Sadler. $15,880.
3–Empire Gal, 120, f, 3, Empire Maker–Double Tapped, by Tapit. 1ST BLACK TYPE. O-Bridlewood Farm and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners; B-Bridlewood Farm (FL); T-Michael W. McCarthy. $9,528.
Margins: 2 1/4, 2 3/4, 1HF. Odds: 2.00, 2.00, 1.80.
Also Ran: Unsolved Mystery, Classical Romance. Scratched: Eda.

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Mohaymen, the $2.2-million joint topper at the 2014 Keeneland September sale and four-time graded stakes winner, currently ranks sixth among North American-standing freshman sires. Among the 11 winners to date in his first crop are two black-type scorers, including GII Sorrento S. winner Elm Drive. Mohaymen will remain at a fee of $7,500, live foal.

Sophomore sire Tamarkuz, winner of the 2016 GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, will move to Blue Ridge Farm in Opelousas, Louisiana. The top runner of his 17 winners is GSW Red Flag. He will stand for $5,000, live foal.

Qurbaan, whose first foals arrived this year, will stand for 2022 at Indiana Stallion Station in Anderson, Indiana. A multiple graded stakes winner who was also multiple GI-placed, Qurbaan will stand for $2,500.

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Through mid-October, the 8-year-old son of Tapit is the sire of two stakes winners, including graded stakes winner Elm Drive (G2 Sorrento Stakes), 11 winners (six in debut) and 12 placed from 35 starters to date. Ranking among the top 10 first year sires, Mohaymen will stand for $7,500 live foal.

2016 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile-G1 winner and 2nd Crop Sire Tamarkuz will be standing at Blue Ridge Farm in Opelousas, La., for a fee of $5,000 live foal.

Among the first crop success for the $1.8 million-earning son of Speightstown is the graded stakes winner Red Flag and yearlings which sold up to $280,000. A half-brother to G1 St. James's Palace Stakes winner Without Parole and stakes winner She's Got You, Tamarkuz is represented by two stakes horses in 2021.

The multiple graded stakes winner Qurbaan, also by Speightstown, will stand the upcoming season at the Indiana Stallion Station in Anderson, Ind., for a fee of $2,500.

Undefeated at two, Qurbaan won or placed in nine graded stakes, including back-to-back editions of Saratoga's G2 Bernard Baruch Handicap and also was Grade 1-placed three times. His first foals arrived this year.

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With the aberration in sales dates last year caused by the COVID-19 situation behind us, this season's major sales proceeded as traditionally scheduled, from March through June. Now that the graduates of those sales are starting to race some observers might infer that we will prejudice our picks toward some stallions that have already had a few impressive winners.

To answer that: 1) Fewer than two dozen graduates of the sales sired by freshmen have started thus far; 2): Our task is to lay odds on how the offspring of these sires are likely to compete over the long term, not to identify the Leading Freshman Sire–although both outcomes could be the case in some years.

We concentrated on freshmen of 2021 that had at least 10 of their offspring breeze at the major 2-year-old sales. While we look at pedigrees in context of commercial appeal, we utilize only video and biomechanical data to assist us in our prognostications. The video data details how their offspring compared as individuals to all the other 2-year-olds which breezed regardless of their sires. The components of this data are included in DataTrack's BreezeFigs service which is partially based on breeze time, stride length, and efficiency of angulation. Since 2006, this product has been utilized at sales by buyers and sellers, as well as being offered every day as a handicapping tool at Daily Racing Form's website.

We also took into consideration the results of stallion projection profiles which were compiled in 2018 when these horses went to stud. These profiles are based on biomechanical measurements and the probabilities of these stallions siring race-efficient foals from books of biomechanically balanced mares.

Arrogate | Asuncion Piñeyrua

We also took into consideration the biomechanical profiles of their offspring taken at the 2021 2-year-old and the 2020 yearling sales.

As mentioned, we limited our interest to stallions for which we have biomechanical data which also had at least 10 offspring that breezed at the major sales–that came down to 17 that began their careers in Kentucky (one, Arrogate, has since died), plus one in New York. In addition, we separated each sire's offspring by sex and in the process discovered that while a few had solid data for both colts and fillies, several others were stronger for one sex. However, several, including some with huge crops represented, returned disappointing results for both sexes.

Fifteen of the Kentucky stallions were separated into three groups according to stud fees that were in effect when they retired to stud–ironically, there are five in each of those groups. Theoretically, they are competing against each other in “races” according to a hypothetical condition book. In addition, Arrogate was set apart because he left only one crop behind, and the other, Mohaymen, entered stud for $7,500 and was grouped with Union Jackson, who stands in New York.

Based on our dataset, which has more than half-dozen components, what follows is our “Future Book” on how each of these stallions stack up as the best long-term prospects within their individual groups.

Group 1 (Stud Fee=$25,000 Plus, Kentucky)

∙              8-to-5                  Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg})

∙              5-to-2                  Lord Nelson (Pulpit)

∙              5-to-2                  Practical Joke (Into Mischief)

∙              3-to-1                  Mastery (Candy Ride {Arg})

∙              6-to-1                  Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile)

Comment: Gun Runner was a heck of a runner and despite that he had fewer 2-year-old representatives than any other in this group, this guy delivered all the promise his biomechanical profile suggested he possessed–and along with Mastery gives his sire a super shot of continuing on his path as a serious sire of sires. Indeed, this group is so close together on the datasets that it may take a couple of years before one or two of them can shake loose from the pack–or battle each other through their lifetimes. Practical Joke was a talking-sire at the sales and they are off and running fast. Lord Nelson popped up as a bit of surprise and adds credence to the belief that his sire left us too soon (viz Tapit, California Chrome, and see American Freedom in Group 3 as well). Classic Empire has a strong chance of moving up as his crops mature.

Group 2 ($12,500 to $20,000, Kentucky)

∙              8-to-5                   Midnight Storm (Pioneerof the Nile)

∙              5-to-1                   Astern (Aus) (Medaglia d'Oro)

∙              8-to-1                   Connect (Curlin)

∙              10-to-1                 Cupid (Tapit)

∙              15-to-1                 Bal a Bali (Brz) (Put It Back)

Midnight Storm | Taylor Made Stallions/Amy Lanigan

Comment: Irony here is that Midnight Storm, whose dataset is strong across the board, has a shot at topping off this entire crop and along with Classic Empire solidify their sire as another who left us too soon. Astern (Aus) is another example of his sire's ability to get serious prospects in two hemispheres and his dataset is strong. Connect and Cupid will probably not be contending for Leading Freshmen Sire honors but when they go further, they could emerge sharply, Bal a Bali (Brz) is his sire's first shot at proving his exportation was a premature event, and he has the goods to send them out early.

Group 3 ($10,000, Kentucky)

∙              3-to-1                   American Freedom (Pulpit)

∙              5-to-1                   Gormley (Malibu Moon)

∙              8-to-1                   Unified (Candy Ride {Arg})

∙              15-to-1                 Keen Ice (Curlin)

∙              15-to-1                 Klimt (Quality Road)

American Freedom | Sarah Andrew

Comment: American Freedom was consistent in sending out offspring that were consistently good performers on the track–watch out Lord Nelson! Gormley and Unified sent out huge numbers of breezers who look like they might get runners that can perform at any distance. Keen Ice and Klimt are likely to need to wait to see their kids score big time, but that could happen toward the end of the year.

Group 4 (Below $10,000, Kentucky & Regional)

∙              5-to-2                   Mohaymen (Tapit) (Kentucky)

∙              5-to-2                   Union Jackson (Union Rags) (New York)

Comment: Everyone should keep in mind that Mohaymen was a terrific early juvenile, so his stud fee may look like a bargain soon. Union Jackson comes from a very clever outfit and more of them came out than is usually the case for a freshman not based in Florida, and they impressed.

And then there is Arrogate. Suffice it to say that if had more than one crop he'd be up there challenging Gun Runner for long-term honors. We would not be surprised if he battles for the lead at the end of this year, thus underscoring what might be a growing legacy for Unbridled's Song–his best siring sons were, as they said in other times, the last of the wine.

There you go, place your bets!

(Bob Fierro is a partner with Jay Kilgore and Frank Mitchell in DataTrack International, biomechanical consultants and developers of BreezeFigs. He can be reached at bbfq@earthlink.net).

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Twirling Candy, a son of Candy Ride, was recently profiled in this space along with other Kentucky-based sons of the Argentine import, including freshman sire Unified, who was represented by his first black-type winner on Saturday when Behave Virginia won the Listed Debutante S. at Churchill Downs.

A Grade ll winner at three and a Grade lll winner at four who was also Grade l-placed, Unified began his career for $10,000 like his sire and stands alongside him at Lane's End. So far, he's represented by only the one winner, but she's a good one and trainer Kenny McPeek, who has a way with fillies, has an eye on the Glll Pocahontas, the Gl Alcibiades, and the Gl Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Gormley, a Grade l winner at two and three, and Mohaymen, an undefeated multiple Grade ll winner at two and a multiple Grade ll winner at three who cost his connections $2.2 million as a yearling, are two others in the news that entered stud relatively inexpensively.

Standing at Shadwell, Mohaymen is a Tapit half-brother to Grade l winner New Year's Day, the sire of champion Maximum Security. He has five winners to date, including a maiden special winner at Laurel on Saturday. Mohaymen has stood for a $7,500 fee, and so far just the Scat Daddy horse Caravaggio, who began his career at Coolmore in Ireland for the equivalent of about $40,000 before moving this year to Coolmore America, has more winners, with eight. Three Chimneys-based Horse of the Year Gun Runner, another son of Candy Ride, also has five winners, but he covered mares in his first year for $70,000 and was the second-most expensive horse to enter stud in 2018, behind only the late Arrogate (Unbridled's Song) at $75,000.

Stallions like Mohaymen that begin for less than $10,000 tend to have a harder struggle to succeed than those between $10,000 and $20,000, but some active success stories to do so include Claiborne's Flatter, a son of A.P. Indy who started for $5,000; and Hill 'n' Dale's Maclean's Music, a son of Distorted Humor who began for $6,500.

Speaking of cheap fees, Spendthrift's Gormley is by the farm's recently deceased A.P. Indy horse Malibu Moon, who was a foundation stallion for B. Wayne Hughes and the sire of Gl Kentucky Derby winner Orb. Malibu Moon initially stood for $3,000 at Country Life in Maryland. Gormley started for $10,000, and, like Unified and Mohaymen, had a winner on Saturday, in a maiden special at Belmont. He has four winners to date.

Stud fee, of course, is a reflection of mare quality, and in broad terms a stallion's short- and long-term success is dependent on good books of mares that complement the horse by physique, race record, and pedigree. You never know until it happens which stallions have the ability to upgrade their mares, but one early sign is a relatively inexpensive horse hitting with quality maiden special and stakes winners, and this is notable because it happens infrequently. Sometimes, these types of horses will also telegraph a year or two earlier what's about to come with expensive yearlings or juveniles far above what's expected on stud fee.

Gormley, for instance, had juveniles sell this year for $550,000, $450,000, and $425,000. The highest priced of these is Headline Report, who won an April maiden special at Keeneland for owner Breeze Easy and trainer Wesley Ward and just registered a bullet five-furlong breeze at Keeneland on Monday. Ward must like Gormley, because he also owns and trains the 2-year-old filly Guajira, who won a $50,000 maiden claimer at Churchill in May. And Guajira, in contrast to Headline Report, was a $3,000 yearling, showing that Gormley can hit from both ends of the spectrum.

Unified had two juveniles bring $530,000 and $400,000, and last year had a yearling make $450,000, though that colt has since died. His stakes winner Behave Virginia was successfully pinhooked from a $30,000 weanling to a $115,000 yearling and is now the winner of both her starts.

Mohaymen didn't have the big-priced 2-year-olds, but he did have five that made six figures, and his 25 juveniles to sell averaged $70,600, which is certainly respectable for his stud fee.

Expensive horses get the best mares, and their success is almost always anticipated because of mare quality. Those that don't meet expectations with their first crops–and, let's face it, most don't–go down the drain fairly quickly, because their subsequent crops are almost always produced from lesser-quality mares. In other words, for most stallions it's easier to find success with the first of their first four crops, and first-crop success means that a stallion will be rewarded with better mares in his fifth crop as breeders patronize him after a successful first year of 2-year-olds, thereby giving him the ability to survive the vagaries of the commercial marketplace and extend his career. This is why stallion managers front load their first-season horses.

Obviously, it's way too early to tell if Unified, Gormley, and Mohaymen will be able to sustain the promise they are showing, but they'll be fun to watch as 2-year-old racing heats up in the second half of the season and the heavier hitters of the freshman class start to flex.

Khalid Mishref Alkahtani
Saudi Arabian Khalid Mishref Alkahtani is the breeder of Behave Virginia. He'd bought her dam, the Mineshaft mare She's Behaving, for $15,000 at Keeneland November 2018, while she was carrying the future black-type winner. She was one of 15 mares he purchased at the sale through agent Bruno DeBerdt, and another was the More Than Ready mare Quick Thinker for $45,000. That mare is the dam of the Gormley winner Think Blue, who he also bred. And Think Blue was an even cheaper yearling than Ward's Guajira, selling for $1,500. When the cheap horses win, the more expensive ones start to look better, don't they?

Khalid Mishref Alkahtani obviously likes young stallions in the $10,000 to $20,000 range, because he also bought the Paddy O'Prado mare My Miss Kallie for $37,000 carrying a foal from the second crop of Taylor Made's Not This Time (Giant's Causeway). That foal, now named Last Leaf, won a maiden special at Gulfstream a few weeks ago, and Not This Time now appears well on his way to a successful career after his first-crop 2-year-olds made the grade last season. In fact, his first-crop son Next, also trained by Ward, became a black-type winner for the first time on Saturday when taking the Listed War Chant S. at Churchill.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Whistlewhileyoumow broke from the inside and was quickly up with the leaders. Before the first quarter registered in :22.67, the gray and Alia Max (Orb) separated themselves from the field and turned it into a match race. They got the half in tandem in :46.77 with only the constant head bob determining who was in front. Neither wanted to relent, but just as Alia Max briefly looked to have a few inches on her side nearing the wire, Whistlewhileyoumow fought back and matched his rival under the line in a game effort. It was another 2 3/4 lengths back to the third-place finisher.

Shadwell sire Mohaymen, winner of four Grade 2 events at two and three topped by the XpressBet Fountain of Youth S., has 76 current juveniles in his first crop. Whistlewhileyoumow is out of Argentinean Group 2 winner Ever Nice (Arg) (Mutakddim), who also has a 2021 colt by Enticed. She was sold at the 2021 Keeneland January sale carrying the Enticed colt for $10,000 to E.B.S. The mare is a half-sister to Argentina's 2009 champion 2-year-old Ever Peace (Arg) (Alpha Plus) and additional Argentinean GSW Ever Beautiful (Arg) (Exchange Rate).

5th-Prairie Meadows, $30,500, Msw, 5-31, 2yo, 4 1/2f, :53.62, ft, 2 3/4 lengths.

(DH) WHISTLEWHILEYOUMOW (g, 2, Mohaymen–Ever Nice {Arg} {GSW-Arg}, by Mutakddim) Sales History: $10,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP; $37,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $12,000. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

O-NBS Stable; B-Clearsky Farms (KY); T-Jon G. Arnett.

(DH) ALIA MAX (f, 2, Orb–Brusquer, by Elusive Quality) Sales History: $17,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-0, $18,500.

O-Travis Swan Murphy, Matt Trent, & Manny Camacho; B-Barouche Stud (Ireland) Ltd. (KY); T-Travis Swan Murphy.

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As such, this should perhaps be the moment we double down. That’s what we would do, at any rate, if we had real faith in the choices we have made for our mares. If we have selected their mates well, then people will be wanting more of the same at the 2023 yearling sales–and we can hope to be rewarded for meeting increased demand with what tends to be diminished supply.

As it is, the imminent exposure of young stallions’ “commercial” credentials to the unsparing examination of the racetrack instead prompts most breeders to flee in terror, sending their mares to those safely unproven rookies who have replaced them on the conveyor belt.

Their logic is perfectly coherent. The whole premise of backing an unproven new stallion is that he will not have been tested by the time you take your yearling to market. And the value of 2021 covers is bound to appear very different, one way or another, in the 2023 sales ring: these sires will by then have a third crop of juveniles on the track, and their slower-maturing, two-turn types will also have shown their hand. As I say, that should actually be an advantage…if, that is, we really believe that we might be catching a wave. But I guess very few breeders can afford the risk of trusting their own opinions to that extent.

Even at the best of times, then, you could expect farms to help this group over the imminent bump in the road. In the prevailing environment, with fee cuts being made across so many rosters, there will surely be particularly good value to be found among stallions whose abrupt loss of commercial traction is every bit as capricious as the hectic subscription of their debut books. After all, those best equipped to sire the type of Thoroughbred we should covet most–namely, one that can run a second turn on the first Saturday in May–will hardly disclose their full potential even now their first crop is being broken and trained.

Nor, as we noted of the weanling market in the previous instalment of this series, can we put too much faith in the reception of these youngsters at the sales. Yes, professional horsemen have at least had the chance to draw some inferences from living, breathing stock presented to their inspection. Moreover, they have been able to assess a much wider sample. Much as with weanling averages, however, those rare occasions when the market challenges the premium implied in stallion fees–whether for better or worse–do not tend to work out very reliably.

As with his weanlings, for instance, the most conspicuous disappointment of the 2018 yearling market, relative to his opening fee, was Constitution. From much the biggest offering of the intake, 98 yearlings, his average sale could not match those of Carpe Diem, Bayern, Tonalist and Lea, to name four whose fees have slipped even as Constitution has meanwhile soared from $25,000 to $85,000.

Admittedly, the yearling market “found” Cairo Prince the year before, elevating animals he had conceived at $10,000 to second place in the averages. But he was sandwiched between two horses whose returns slavishly obeyed the assumptions invited by their fees: Will Take Charge was top, having started out at a class-high $30,000; and Verrazano was third, having similarly started higher than almost all the rest at $22,500. Those two are respectively now down to $5,000 and Brazil.

Once again, then, let’s be wary of drawing too many conclusions, whether positive or negative, from the “performance” at the yearling sales of those stallions who will launch their first runners in 2021.

Sadly, of course, the most expensive recruit of the intake is no longer with us. The tragic loss of Arrogate (Unbridled’s Song) leaves GUN RUNNER (Candy Ride {Arg}–Quiet Giant by Giant’s Causeway) as its outstanding prospect after starting out at Three Chimneys as Horse of the Year at $70,000.

He gets a generous clip to $50,000 to keep the door revolving. Opening books of 171 and 166 struck a balance between numerical opportunity without totally inundating the market, and he maintained numbers last spring at 156. Of 71 yearlings into the ring, he found a new home for 46 at a class-high $246,413.

That has to go down as a very solid start and, while you can’t expect a horse that reached his peak at four to be siring sprint winners at Keeneland in April, nor should we forget how he came to the boil at the Fair Grounds before running third to Nyquist (Uncle Mo) in the GI Kentucky Derby. It spoke well of his substance that he was still on the go in late November, winning the GI Clark H.; and he emerged much stronger than did Arrogate from their clash in the desert the following spring, going on an unbeaten spree of five Grade Is.

The appeal to breeders, aside from his class and constitution, was that it all had such an obvious source: his dam is a Grade II-winning half-sister to another Horse of the Year in Saint Liam (Saint Ballado) with a plenty of supporting quality close up. In broader brushstrokes, his page entwines two branches of the Fappiano dynasty, both away from the Unbridled highway: obviously he extends the line through Candy Ride, but he also brings in Fappiano’s son Quiet American (with his dynamic genetics) as sire of his second dam.

All told, Gun Runner looks abundantly qualified to build on whatever promise he can show in what will, after all, only be his opening skirmishes.

Candy Ride’s growing stature as a sire of sires helped another of his sons emerge as the standout performer of the intake at the yearling sales. Yes, we’ve urged circumspection about the market’s verdict, but Claiborne priced MASTERY (Candy Ride {Arg}–Steady Course by Old Trieste) very fairly at $25,000 and, being no less reliable in the conservative management of his books (139/143/138), they have given their clients a platform for a most rewarding debut at the sales.

Mastery was gold on our “value podium” last year and it feels very hard to dislodge him after he sold as many as 64 of 79 yearlings into the ring at a knockout yield of $129,421–surpassed only by Gun Runner and Arrogate–with mares commensurate with their fees.

There’s no doubting the terrific natural talent exhibited by Mastery in a career that contrasted poignantly with that of the teak Gun Runner, derailed as he was in the very act of announcing himself the horse to beat in the Derby. It plainly serves his cause, commercially, that he was a seven-length Grade I winner at two, but his pedigree underpins his appeal to all breeding agendas, including any that might be disposed to retain a filly.

For his dam is a three-parts sister to the Pennsylvania stalwart Jump Start, and their mother, in turn, is by one broodmare sire legend (Storm Cat) out of a full-sister to another in Miswaki. You couldn’t ask for better seeding of the bottom line, once you get past a dam by one of A.P. Indy’s less fashionable sons: Storm Cat, Mr. Prospector, Buckpasser, Princequillo, Nasrullah. With looks to match, Mastery demands fidelity even among those generally inclined to back off stallions at this precarious stage in their careers. It just feels like the force is with him.

The other stallion to break six figures with his yearling average was PRACTICAL JOKE (Into Mischief–Halo Humor by Distorted Humor), who parlayed a $30,000 opening fee at Ashford into 74 sales (of 92 offered) at $120,243.

This was another Grade I winner at two, in both the Champagne and Hopeful. He stretched out for fifth in the GI Kentucky Derby, but reiterated that Into Mischief speed was his trademark when dropping back for his sophomore Grade I in the H. Allen Jerkens S.

No less than Mastery, Practical Joke has conformed to the standard formula of his host farm with no fewer than 220 mares in his first book and 200 in his second. He maintained turnover with another 188 guests last spring, so he certainly has numbers behind him. That brings its customary risks, but these are acknowledged by consecutive cuts to $25,000 last year and $22,500 this time round.

We know that the usual rules don’t apply to Into Mischief, whose promising start as a sire of sires doubtless contributed (along with his own physical allure) to the popularity of Practical Joke at the sales. But it must be acknowledged that the champion sire’s alchemical powers are well demonstrated by his ability to get such a proficient racehorse from a family as plain as this one.

Practical Joke was well held in third when CLASSIC EMPIRE (Pioneerof the Nile–Sambuca Classica by Cat Thief) just denied Not This Time the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The runner-up has set high standards in their new career and Classic Empire, having joined Practical Joke at Ashford, looks pretty eligible to meet them.

He consolidated his 2-year-old championship in the GI Arkansas Derby, and was only denied the GI Preakness by the head of Cloud Computing (Maclean’s Music). Unfortunately, that proved to be his final appearance, but there’s a beguiling shape to his page: rather like Mastery, his dam is by one of the less glamorous sons of an iconic broodmare sire but the next three dams are by Miswaki, Hoist The Flag and Princequillo–and in this neighborhood it becomes an ancestry shared with Harlan’s Holiday, Boldnesian and Ride the Rails. The second dam was Grade I-placed, so there’s plenty to be working on here.

Nonetheless, Classic Empire has just taken his fourth consecutive cut, now half his opening fee at $17,500. Respite on the fee helped him maintain 122 mares last spring after an opening book of 185 had slipped to 104 in his second year. That big first crop obviously produced plenty of traffic into the ring, with 92 yearlings offered, and he rehoused 66 of them at $89,613. Like all these stallions, he’s at a crossroads now, but recycling his juvenile prowess would certainly keep him in the game.

Starting alongside Practical Joke and Classic Empire at Ashford, CUPID (Tapit–Pretty ‘N Smart by Beau Genius) corralled a staggering 223 mares in his debut book. No less breathtaking, however, was his giddy descent to just 53 mares the following year. I don’t know which of these numbers is more absurd. There’s no way he had done anything like enough to earn a book surpassed nationally only by Into Mischief himself; but nor, when his first foals were barely slithering into the straw, were there any grounds for deserting him with equal haste. What an example of the panicked, neurotic herd instincts of commercial breeders today!

Cupid steadied the ship at 75 mares last spring and, now trading at $5,000 from an opening $12,500, he’s still entitled to show that those who backed him in his first year were right. His yearlings were processed efficiently enough, after all, a very healthy ratio of 68 sold from 82 offered at $46,786.

No surprise, perhaps, in one who himself made $900,000 as a yearling; and his Grade II-placed dam has produced three other stakes/graded stakes winners. After such a dazing start to his stud career, it’ll be fascinating to see which way things go from here. Unraced at two, he won his Grade I around two turns at four, so he’s hardly standardized to the industrial model. But I like a second dam by Vice Regent when Cupid’s damsire is out of a mare by his brother Viceregal, so Cupid could yet land his dart.

Another to join growing competition for the legacy of Gainesway’s champion sire is MOHAYMEN (Tapit–

Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union). Shadwell clients made the most of a very generous price, realizing an average $52,506–seven times his $7,500 fee–for 31 sold of 40 offered.

This is a pretty interesting horse: an unbeaten and accomplished juvenile, including in the GII Nashua S. and GII Remsen S., he went on to Florida and won the GII Holy Bull S. and GII Fountain of Youth S. before running fourth in the Derby. Unfortunately, he lost his way thereafter, but the looks and page that qualified him as a $2.2-million yearling stand undiminished, and his half-brother New Year’s Day (Street Cry {Ire}) obviously has somewhat more resonance than a couple of years ago. Their dam was a dual Grade II winner, also Grade I-placed, and Tapit doesn’t tend to get too many who land running quite like Mohaymen did at two. (And the page has a nice little knot between Tapit’s third dam and her brother Relaunch, whose son Honour and Glory sired Mohaymen’s granddam).

With 121 mares in his first book, Mohaymen could well make his presence felt in the freshmen’s table. Obviously he is not on the most commercial of farms, down to 51 mares in his second year and 59 last spring, but he definitely has potential to renew momentum from here.

This instalment of our ongoing series will be completed in tomorrow’s edition. Part II includes stallions like Klimt, Unified, Connect, Keen Ice, Lord Nelson, American Freedom, Midnight Storm and Gormley, along with our latest value “podium”.

The post Kentucky Sires for 2021: First Juveniles–Part I appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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A son of record-breaking champion freshman sire of 2015 proved most popular on Wednesday, fetching a top price of $600,000 from Donato Lanni, agent (video).

The dark bay or brown colt was offered as Hip 1131 by Lane's End, agent. The session topper is a half-brother to English stakes winner Wind Fire (Distorted Humor) out of a winning full-sister to Grade 1 winner Majestic Warrior and stakes winner and multiple stakes producer Crystal Current. Hip 1131 was bred in Kentucky by Kinsman Farm.

The second-highest price of the day was paid for a colt by leading sire Into Mischief, purchased by Spendthrift Farm from the consignment of Paramount Sales, agent (video).

Offered as Hip 1147, the bay colt is a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Yara, dam of undefeated 2-year-old stakes winner of 2020 Moon Swag. Hip 1147 was bred in Florida by Bulldog Racing and Gabriel Duignan.

Nine other yearlings sold for $200,000 or more during the sale's third session, including:

• Hip 844, a colt from the first crop of multiple Grade 2 winner Mohaymen, sold for $315,000 to Trade Winds Farm from the consignment of Hunter Valley Farm, agent. A half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winning millionaire Got Stormy, Hip 844 was bred in Kentucky by Mt. Joy Stables, Pope McLean, Marc McLean, and Pope McLean Jr. The colt was a $145,000 selected weanling purchase by Redly Bloodstock at last year's Fasig-Tipton November Sale, where he was consigned by Pope McLean, agent.
• Hip 1040, a filly by successful young sire Maclean's Music, sold for $280,000 to JCM Racing from the consignment of Eaton Sales, agent. A half-sister to four winners from the immediate family of multiple Grade 1 winner Code of Honor, Hip 1040 was bred in Kentucky by Athens Woods LLC.

Wednesday's session saw 237 yearlings change hands for a total of $9,062,300. The average was $38,238 and the median was $17,000. Through three days of selling, 726 yearlings have sold for $25,800, good for an average of $35,059. The three-day median is $15,000.

The Kentucky October Yearlings sale resumes Thursday, Oct. 29 at 10 a.m.

Results are available online.

The post Uncle Mo Colt Tops Third Session Of Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearlings Sale appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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